Effects of tick population dynamics and host densities on the persistence of tick-borne infections

The transmission and the persistence of tick-borne infections are strongly influenced by the densities and the structure of host populations. By extending previous models and analysis, in this paper we analyse how the persistence of ticks and pathogens, is affected by the dynamics of tick populations, and by their host densities. The effect of host densities on infection persistence is explored through the analysis and simulation of a series of models that include different assumptions on tick-host dynamics and consider different routes of infection transmission. Ticks are assumed to feed on two types of host species which vary in their reservoir competence. Too low densities of competent hosts (i.e., hosts where transmission can occur) do not sustain the infection cycle, while too high densities of incompetent hosts may dilute the competent hosts so much to make infection persistence impossible. A dilution effect may occur also for competent hosts as a consequence of reduced tick to host ratio; this is possible only if the regulation of tick populations is such that tick density does not increase linearly with host densities.     

Persistence of tick-borne virus in the presence of multiple host species: tick reservoirs and parasite mediated competition.

Tick-borne viruses in tropical and temperate parts of the world have a significant impact on human, livestock and wildlife hosts both directly, through mortality/morbidity, and economically. Since the ticks have multiple life stages and can utilize a large range of host species our understanding of the dynamics of these infections is often not clear. In this paper we consider the impact of a population which is a tick host but non-viraemic on one which is both a tick host and viraemic. We present two simple deterministic models and use joint threshold density curves to illustrate the basic reproductive ratios of both the ticks and the virus. We find that the non-viraemic hosts can have considerable impact on the viraemic host. Either they amplify the tick population and cause the virus to persist, or they dilute the infection and cause it to die out. A general model framework is presented here but a special case of this model describes the red grouse-hare-Louping-ill system.     

Effect of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. II: population and infection models

Tick-borne encephalitis is an emerging vector-borne zoonotic disease reported in several European and Asiatic countries with complex transmission routes that involve various vertebrate host species other than a tick vector. Understanding and quantifying the contribution of the different hosts involved in the TBE virus cycle is crucial in estimating the threshold conditions for virus emergence and spread. Some hosts, such as rodents, act both as feeding hosts for ticks and reservoirs of the infection. Other species, such as deer, provide important sources of blood for feeding ticks but they do not support TBE virus transmission, acting instead as dead-end (i.e., incompetent) hosts. Here, we introduce an eco-epidemiological model to explore the dynamics of tick populations and TBE virus infection in relation to the density of two key hosts. In particular, our aim is to validate and interpret in a robust theoretical framework the empirical findings regarding the effect of deer density on tick infestation on rodents and thus TBE virus occurrence from selected European foci. Model results show hump-shaped relationships between deer density and both feeding ticks on rodents and the basic reproduction number for TBE virus. This suggests that deer may act as tick amplifiers, but may also divert tick bites from competent hosts, thus diluting pathogen transmission. However, our model shows that the mechanism responsible for the dilution effect is more complex than the simple reduction of tick burden on competent hosts. Indeed, while the number of feeding ticks on rodents may increase with deer density, the proportion of blood meals on competent compared with incompetent hosts may decrease, triggering a decline in infection. As a consequence, using simply the number of ticks per rodent as a predictor of TBE transmission potential could be misleading if competent hosts share habitats with incompetent hosts.     

Seasonal population dynamics of ticks, and their influence on infection transmission: a semi-discrete approach

A semi-discrete model for tick population dynamics is presented, whereby tick feeding is assumed to occur only during summers of each year. Conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of a positive equilibrium were found; the system was then studied numerically using parameter estimates calibrated for the tick Ixodes ricinus in Trentino, Italy, and the sensitivity to parameters was examined. This model was then extended to consider tick-transmitted infection of one species of hosts, while other hosts are incompetent to the infection. Assuming, for simplicity, that the infection is not affecting the total number of either hosts or ticks, a threshold condition for infection persistence was obtained. The dependence of the equilibrium infection prevalence on parameters was studied numerically; in particular, we considered how infection prevalence depends on host densities. This analysis reveals that a dilution effect occurs both for competent and for incompetent hosts. This means that, besides a lower threshold for host densities for infection to persists, there also exists an upper threshold: if host densities were higher than the upper threshold, the infection would go to extinction. Numerically, it was found that the upper threshold was not much higher than observed densities for realistic parameter values.     

The role of non-viraemic transmission on the persistence and dynamics of a tick borne virus – Louping ill in red grouse (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lagopus lagopus scoticus</Emphasis>) and mountain hares (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepus timidus</Emphasis>)

There exist many tick borne infections that are of either economic or public health interest. Mathematical models have previously been used to describe the dynamics of these infections. However it has recently come to light that there is an alternative mechanism for the transmission of these diseases that has not been considered in a modelling framework. This is transmission through ticks co-feeding on non-viraemic hosts. This paper extends a simple mathematical model to include this alternative transmission mechanism. The model is used to describe the dynamics of Louping ill virus in red grouse (the viraemic host) and hares (the non-viraemic host). However, these results are applicable to many other systems. The model is analysed using joint threshold density curves. It is found that the presence of a non-viraemic host allows the virus to persist more readily than it would in the presence of a host that simply amplified the tick population. More importantly, if the level of non-viraemic transmission is high enough the virus can persist in the absence of the viraemic host. This result has important implications for the control of tick borne diseases.     

Seasonal population dynamics of ticks,and its influence on infection transmission: A semi-discrete approach

In this paper, a simple semi-discrete (ticks’ feeding is assumed to occur only during the summers of each year) model for tick population dynamics is presented. Conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of a positive equilibrium are found; the system is then studied numerically using parameter estimates calibrated for the tick Ixodes ricinus in Trentino, Italy, and the sensitivity to parameters is examined. Then, this model is extended to consider a tick-transmitted infection of one species of hosts, while other hosts are incompetent to the infection. Assuming, for simplicity, that the infection is not affecting the total number either of hosts or ticks, a threshold condition for infection persistence is obtained. The dependence of the equilibrium infection prevalence on parameters is studied numerically; in particular, we considered how infection prevalence depends on host densities. This analysis reveals that a ‘dilution effect’ occurs both for competent and for incompetent hosts; this means that, besides a lower threshold for host densities for infection to persist, there exists also an upper threshold: if host densities were higher than the upper threshold, the infection would go to extinction. Numerically, it is found that, for realistic parameter values, the upper threshold is not much higher than observed densities.     

Persistence of Pathogens with Short Infectious Periods in Seasonal Tick Populations: The Relative Importance of Three Transmission Routes

Background

The flaviviruses causing tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) persist at low but consistent levels in tick populations, despite short infectious periods in their mammalian hosts and transmission periods constrained by distinctly seasonal tick life cycles. In addition to systemic and vertical transmission, cofeeding transmission has been proposed as an important route for the persistence of TBE-causing viruses. Because cofeeding transmission requires ticks to feed simultaneously, the timing of tick activity may be critical to pathogen persistence. Existing models of tick-borne diseases do not incorporate all transmission routes and tick seasonality. Our aim is to evaluate the influence of seasonality on the relative importance of different transmission routes by using a comprehensive mathematical model.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a stage-structured population model that includes tick seasonality and evaluated the relative importance of the transmission routes for pathogens with short infectious periods, in particular Powassan virus (POWV) and the related “deer tick virus,” emergent encephalitis-causing flaviviruses in North America. We used the next generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and performed elasticity analyses. We confirmed that cofeeding transmission is critically important for such pathogens to persist in seasonal tick populations over the reasonable range of parameter values. At higher but still plausible rates of vertical transmission, our model suggests that vertical transmission can strongly enhance pathogen prevalence when it operates in combination with cofeeding transmission.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results demonstrate that the consistent prevalence of POWV observed in tick populations could be maintained by a combination of low vertical, intermediate cofeeding and high systemic transmission rates. When vertical transmission is weak, nymphal ticks support integral parts of the transmission cycle that are critical for maintaining the pathogen. We also extended the model to pathogens that cause chronic infections in hosts and found that cofeeding transmission could contribute to elevating prevalence even in these systems. Therefore, the common assumption that cofeeding transmission is not relevant in models of chronic host infection, such as Lyme disease, could lead to underestimating pathogen prevalence.     

The role of deer in facilitating the spatial spread of the pathogen Borrelia burgdorferi

Borrelia burgdorferi is a vector-bourne zoonosis which propagates in wild populations of rodents and deer. The latter are incompetent for the pathogen but are required for the life cycle of hard-backed ticks which act as a vector for the pathogen. Increasing the diversity of hosts has previously suggested the presence of a ‘dilution effect’ in which such an increase reduces successful pathogen transmission as it increases the chance that a tick will encounter an incompetent host. This paper will produce a model which shows that whilst a dilution effect is possible for a system in which deer are the only incompetent host, this effect is not likely to be strong. Extending the population dynamics to include movement of deer into regions previously only inhabited by competent hosts, we find that, although ticks come in with the deer, there is a significant time lag before Borrelia appears.     

Effects of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. I: empirical assessment

Tick borne encephalitis (TBE) is endemic to eastern and central Europe with broad temporal and spatial variation in infection risk. Although many studies have focused on understanding the environmental and socio-economic factors affecting exposure of humans to TBE, comparatively little research has been devoted to assessing the underlying ecological mechanisms of TBE occurrence in enzootic cycles, and therefore TBE hazard. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the main ungulate tick hosts on the pattern of tick infestation in rodents and TBE occurrence in rodents and questing adult ticks. In this empirical study, we considered three areas where endemic human TBE occurs and three control sites having no reported human TBE cases. In these six sites located in Italy and Slovakia, we assessed deer density using the pellet group count-plot sampling technique, collected questing ticks, live-trapped rodents (primarily Apodemus flavicollis and Myodes glareolus) and counted ticks feeding on rodents. Both rodents and questing ticks were screened for TBE infection. TBE infection in ticks and rodents was positively associated with the number of co-feeding ticks on rodents and negatively correlated with deer density. We hypothesise that the negative relationship between deer density and TBE occurrence on a local scale (defined by the minimum overlapping area of host species) could be attributed to deer (incompetent hosts) diverting questing ticks from rodents (competent hosts), know as the 'dilution effect hypothesis'. We observed that, after an initial increase, the number of ticks feeding on rodents reached a peak for an intermediate value of estimated deer density and then decreased. Therefore, while at a regional scale, tick host availability has already been shown to be directly correlated with TBE distribution, our results suggest that the interactions between deer, rodents and ticks are much more complex on a local scale, supporting the possibility of a dilution effect for TBE.     

Impact of biodiversity and seasonality on Lyme-pathogen transmission

Lyme disease imposes increasing global public health challenges. To better understand the joint effects of seasonal temperature variation and host community composition on the pathogen transmission, a stage-structured periodic model is proposed by integrating seasonal tick development and activity, multiple host species and complex pathogen transmission routes between ticks and reservoirs. Two thresholds, one for tick population dynamics and the other for Lyme-pathogen transmission dynamics, are identified and shown to fully classify the long-term outcomes of the tick invasion and disease persistence. Seeding with the realistic parameters, the tick reproduction threshold and Lyme disease spread threshold are estimated to illustrate the joint effects of the climate change and host community diversity on the pattern of Lyme disease risk. It is shown that climate warming can amplify the disease risk and slightly change the seasonality of disease risk. Both the “dilution effect” and “amplification effect” are observed by feeding the model with different possible alternative hosts. Therefore, the relationship between the host community biodiversity and disease risk varies, calling for more accurate measurements on the local environment, both biotic and abiotic such as the temperature and the host community composition.     

Effect of host populations on the intensity of ticks and the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens: how to interpret the results of deer exclosure experiments

Deer are important blood hosts for feeding Ixodes ricinus ticks but they do not support transmission of many tick-borne pathogens, so acting as dead-end transmission hosts. Mathematical models show their role as tick amplifiers, but also suggest that they dilute pathogen transmission, thus reducing infection prevalence. Empirical evidence for this is conflicting: experimental plots with deer removal (i.e. deer exclosures) show that the effect depends on the size of the exclosure. Here we present simulations of dynamic models that take into account different tick stages, and several host species (e.g. rodents) that may move to and from deer exclosures; models were calibrated with respect to Ixodes ricinus ticks and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Trentino (northern Italy). Results show that in small exclosures, the density of rodent-feeding ticks may be higher inside than outside, whereas in large exclosures, a reduction of such tick density may be reached. Similarly, TBE prevalence in rodents decreases in large exclosures and may be slightly higher in small exclosures than outside them. The density of infected questing nymphs inside small exclosures can be much higher, in our numerical example almost twice as large as that outside, leading to potential TBE infection risk hotspots.     

Ecology of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in Europe: transmission dynamics in multi-host systems, influence of molecular processes and effects of climate change

The analysis of different multi-host systems suggests that even hosts that are not capable of transmitting Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) to the tick vector, Ixodes ricinus, or that are secondary reservoirs for these agents contribute to the intensity of transmission and to the overall risk of Lyme borreliosis, through the process of vector augmentation and pathogen amplification. On the other hand, above certain threshold densities, or in the presence of competition with primary reservoir hosts or low attachment rate of ticks to reservoir hosts, incompetent or less competent hosts may reduce transmission through dilution. The transmission of B. burgdorferi s.l. is affected by molecular processes at the tick-host interface including mechanisms for the protection of spirochaetes against the host's immune response. Molecular biology also increasingly provides important identification tools for the study of tick-borne disease agents. Ixodes ricinus and B. burgdorferi s.l. are expanding their geographical range to northern latitudes and to higher altitudes through the effects of climate change on host populations and on tick development, survival and seasonal activity. The integration of quantitative ecology with molecular methodology is central to a better understanding of the factors that determine the main components of Lyme borreliosis eco-epidemiology and should result in more accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on the circulation of pathogens in nature.     

The effect of landscape heterogeneity and host movement on a tick-borne pathogen

Landscape heterogeneity can be instrumental in determining local disease risk, pathogen persistence and spread. This is because different landscape features such as habitat type determine the abundance and spatial distributions of hosts and pathogen vectors. Therefore, disease prevalence and distribution are intrinsically linked to the hosts and vectors that utilise the different habitats. Here, we develop a simplified reaction diffusion model of the louping-ill virus and red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) system to investigate the occurrence of a tick-borne pathogen and the effect of host movement and landscape structure. Ticks (Ixodes ricinus), the virus-vector, are dispersed by a virally incompetent tick host, red deer (Cervus elephus), between different habitats, whilst the virus infects only red grouse. We investigated how deer movement between different habitats (forest and moorland) affected tick distribution and hence prevalence of infected ticks and grouse and hence, the effect of habitat size ratio and fragmentation on infection. When habitat type has a role in the survival of the pathogen vector, we demonstrated that habitat fragmentation can have a considerable effect on infection. These results highlight the importance of landscape heterogeneity and the proximity and size of adjacent habitats when predicting disease risk in a particular location. In addition, this model could be useful for other pathogen systems with generalist vectors and may inform policy on possible disease management strategies that incorporate host movements.     

Tick-borne infections of animals and humans: a common ground

A wide variety of pathogens is transmitted from ticks to vertebrates including viruses, bacteria, protozoa and helminths, of which most have a life cycle that requires passage through the vertebrate host. Tick-borne infections of humans, farm and companion animals are essentially associated with wildlife animal reservoirs. While some flying insect-borne diseases of humans such as malaria, filariasis and Kala Azar caused by Leishmania donovani target people as their main host, major tick-borne infections of humans, although potentially causing disease in large numbers of individuals, are typically an infringement of a circulation between wildlife animal reservoirs and tick vectors. While new tick-borne infectious agents are frequently recognised, emerging agents of human tick-borne infections were probably circulating among wildlife animal and tick populations long before being recognised as clinical causes of human disease as has been shown for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. Co-infection with more than one tick-borne infection is common and can enhance pathogenic processes and augment disease severity as found in B. burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophilum co-infection. The role of wild animal reservoirs in co-infection of human hosts appears to be central, further linking human and animal tick-borne infections. Although transmission of most tick-borne infections is through the tick saliva, additional routes of transmission, shown mostly in animals, include infection by oral uptake of infected ticks, by carnivorism, animal bites and transplacentally. Additionally, artificial infection via blood transfusion is a growing threat in both human and veterinary medicine. Due to the close association between human and animal tick-borne infections, control programs for these diseases require integration of data from veterinary and human reporting systems, surveillance in wildlife and tick populations, and combined teams of experts from several scientific disciplines such as entomology, epidemiology, medicine, public health and veterinary medicine.     

Evidence of the importance of host habitat use in predicting the dilution effect of wild boar for deer exposure to Anaplasma spp

Foci of tick-borne pathogens occur at fine spatial scales, and depend upon a complex arrangement of factors involving climate, host abundance and landscape composition. It has been proposed that the presence of hosts that support tick feeding but not pathogen multiplication may dilute the transmission of the pathogen. However, models need to consider the spatial component to adequately explain how hosts, ticks and pathogens are distributed into the landscape. In this study, a novel, lattice-derived, behavior-based, spatially-explicit model was developed to test how changes in the assumed perception of different landscape elements affect the outcome of the connectivity between patches and therefore the dilution effect. The objective of this study was to explain changes in the exposure rate (ER) of red deer to Anaplasma spp. under different configurations of suitable habitat and landscape fragmentation in the presence of variable densities of the potentially diluting host, wild boar. The model showed that the increase in habitat fragmentation had a deep impact on Habitat Sharing Ratio (HSR), a parameter describing the amount of habitat shared by red deer and wild boar, weighted by the probability of the animals to remain together in the same patch (according to movement rules), the density of ticks and the density of animals at a given vegetation patch, and decreased the dilution effect of wild boar on deer Anaplasma ER. The model was validated with data collected on deer, wild boar and tick densities, climate, landscape composition, host vegetation preferences and deer seropositivity to Anaplasma spp. (as a measure of ER) in 10 study sites in Spain. However, although conditions were appropriate for a dilution effect, empirical results did not show a decrease in deer ER in sites with high wild boar densities. The model showed that the HSR was the most effective parameter to explain the absence of the dilution effect. These results suggest that host habitat usage may weaken the predicted dilution effect for tick-borne pathogens and emphasize the importance of the perceptual capabilities of different hosts in different landscapes and habitat fragmentation conditions for predictions of dilution effects.     

Attachment site selection of ticks on roe deer, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>

The spatio-temporal attachment site patterns of ticks feeding on their hosts can be of significance if co-feeding transmission (i.e. from tick to tick without a systemic infection of the host) of pathogens affects the persistence of a given disease. Using tick infestation data on roe deer, we analysed preferred attachment sites and niche width of Ixodes ticks (larvae, nymphs, males, females) and investigated the degree of inter- and intrastadial aggregation. The different development stages showed rather consistent attachment site patterns and relative narrow feeding site niches. Larvae were mostly found on the head and on the front legs of roe deer, nymphs reached highest densities on the head and highest adult densities were found on the neck of roe deer. The tick stages feeding (larvae, nymphs, females) on roe deer showed high degrees of intrastadial spatial aggregation, whereas males did not. Male ticks showed large feeding site overlap with female ticks. Feeding site overlap between larval-female and larval-nymphal ticks did occur especially during the months May–August on the head and front legs of roe deer and might allow pathogen transmission via co-feeding. Tick density, niche width and niche overlap on roe deer are mainly affected by seasonality, reflecting seasonal activity and abundance patterns of ticks. Since different tick development stages occur spatially and temporally clustered on roe deer, transmission experiments of tick-borne pathogens are urgently needed.     

Detection of Anaplasma bovis in an undescribed tick species collected from the eastern rock sengi Elephantulus myurus

Ticks are important vectors of numerous pathogens causing illness, fatalities, and economic loss worldwide. Infectious disease episodes are increasing, and novel tick-borne pathogens are described frequently. Identification of novel reservoir hosts and vectors of tick-borne pathogens is essential if control measures are to be successful. In South Africa, the eastern rock sengi, Elephantulus myurus , hosts a number of tick species of veterinary importance. Despite this, there remains a paucity of information regarding the tick fauna of this species, the pathogen associations of ticks that it hosts, and its role as a reservoir host of tick-borne pathogens. The current study documents the tick fauna of E. myurus and sympatric small mammal species in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The pathogen associations of ticks hosted by elephant shrews were also investigated by PCR screening of engorged nymphs for a broad range of bacterial and protozoan tick-borne infections, including Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and members of Apicomplexa and the order Rickettsiales. There were marked differences in tick species and abundance among host species. Elephantulus myurus was heavily, and predominantly, parasitized by an as-yet undescribed tick species that we identify as Rhipicephalus sp. near warburtoni. PCR and sequence analysis revealed the presence of Anaplasma bovis in this tick species, which may have consequences for livestock production and conservation efforts in the area where this tick species occurs.     

Local host-tick coextinction in neotropical forest fragments

Ticks are obligatory parasites with complex life cycles that often depend on larger bodied vertebrates as final hosts. These traits make them particularly sensitive to local coextinction with their host. Loss of wildlife abundance and diversity should thus lead to loss of tick abundance and diversity to the point where only generalist tick species remain. However, direct empirical tests of these hypotheses are lacking, despite their relevance to our understanding of tick-borne disease emergence in disturbed environments. Here, we compare vertebrate and tick communities across 12 forest islands and peninsulas in the Panama Canal that ranged 1000-fold in size (2.6–2811.3?ha). We used drag sampling and camera trapping to directly assess the abundance and diversity of communities of questing ticks and vertebrate hosts. We found that the abundance and species richness of ticks were positively related to those of wildlife. Specialist tick species were only present in fragments where their final hosts were found. Further, less diverse tick communities had a higher relative abundance of the generalist tick species Amblyomma oblongoguttatum, a potential vector of spotted fever group rickettsiosis. These findings support the host-parasite coextinction hypothesis, and indicate that loss of wildlife can indeed have cascading effects on tick communities. Our results also imply that opportunities for pathogen transmission via generalist ticks may be higher in habitats with degraded tick communities. If these patterns are general, then tick identities and abundances serve as useful bioindicators of ecosystem health, with low tick diversity reflecting low wildlife diversity and a potentially elevated risk of interspecific disease transmission via remaining host species and generalist ticks.     

Pattern of Tick Aggregation on Mice: Larger Than Expected Distribution Tail Enhances the Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens

The spread of tick-borne pathogens represents an important threat to human and animal health in many parts of Eurasia. Here, we analysed a 9-year time series of Ixodes ricinus ticks feeding on Apodemus flavicollis mice (main reservoir-competent host for tick-borne encephalitis, TBE) sampled in Trentino (Northern Italy). The tail of the distribution of the number of ticks per host was fitted by three theoretical distributions: Negative Binomial (NB), Poisson-LogNormal (PoiLN), and Power-Law (PL). The fit with theoretical distributions indicated that the tail of the tick infestation pattern on mice is better described by the PL distribution. Moreover, we found that the tail of the distribution significantly changes with seasonal variations in host abundance. In order to investigate the effect of different tails of tick distribution on the invasion of a non-systemically transmitted pathogen, we simulated the transmission of a TBE-like virus between susceptible and infective ticks using a stochastic model. Model simulations indicated different outcomes of disease spreading when considering different distribution laws of ticks among hosts. Specifically, we found that the epidemic threshold and the prevalence equilibria obtained in epidemiological simulations with PL distribution are a good approximation of those observed in simulations feed by the empirical distribution. Moreover, we also found that the epidemic threshold for disease invasion was lower when considering the seasonal variation of tick aggregation.     

Potential effects of mixed infections in ticks on transmission dynamics of pathogens: comparative analysis of published records

Ticks are often infected with more than one pathogen, and several field surveys have documented nonrandom levels of coinfection. Levels of coinfection by pathogens in four tick species were analyzed using published infection data. Coinfection patterns of pathogens in field-collected ticks include numerous cases of higher or lower levels of coinfection than would be expected due to chance alone, but the vast majority of these cases can be explained on the basis of vertebrate host associations of the pathogens, without invoking interactions between pathogens within ticks. Nevertheless, some studies have demonstrated antagonistic interactions, and some have suggested potential mutualisms, between pathogens in ticks. Negative or positive interactions between pathogens within ticks can affect pathogen prevalence, and thus transmission patterns. Probabilistic projections suggest that the effect on transmission depends on initial conditions. When the number of tick bites is relatively low (e.g., for ticks biting humans) changes in prevalence in ticks are predicted to have a commensurate effects on pathogen transmission. In contrast, when the number of tick bites is high (e.g., for wild animal hosts) changes in pathogen prevalence in ticks have relatively little effect on levels of transmission to reservoir hosts, and thus on natural transmission cycles.