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1.
The transmission and the persistence of tick-borne infections are strongly influenced by the densities and the structure of host populations. By extending previous models and analysis, in this paper we analyse how the persistence of ticks and pathogens, is affected by the dynamics of tick populations, and by their host densities. The effect of host densities on infection persistence is explored through the analysis and simulation of a series of models that include different assumptions on tick-host dynamics and consider different routes of infection transmission. Ticks are assumed to feed on two types of host species which vary in their reservoir competence. Too low densities of competent hosts (i.e., hosts where transmission can occur) do not sustain the infection cycle, while too high densities of incompetent hosts may dilute the competent hosts so much to make infection persistence impossible. A dilution effect may occur also for competent hosts as a consequence of reduced tick to host ratio; this is possible only if the regulation of tick populations is such that tick density does not increase linearly with host densities.  相似文献   

2.
An important epidemiological consequence of aggregated host-parasite associations occurs when parasites are vectors of pathogens. Those hosts that attract many vectors will tend to be the focus of transmission. But to what extent, and can we identify characteristics of these key hosts? We investigated these questions with respect to the host-tick relationship of the yellow-necked mouse, Apodemus flavicollis, a critical host in the maintenance of the zoonotic disease, tick-borne encephalitis. Transmission of the virus occurs when ticks feed in a 'co-feeding' aggregation. Thus, the number and frequency of co-feeding groups provides an estimate of the potential rate of virus transmission. We recorded the spatio-temporal variations in co-feeding on a population of rodents in conjunction with recording individual host characteristics. Using Lorenz curves, we revealed conformation of tick-borne encephalitis transmission potential to the 20/80 Rule, where the 20% of hosts most infested with ticks were accountable for 80% of transmission potential. Hosts in the transmission cohort were identified as the sexually mature males of high body mass. Therefore control efforts targeted at this group would substantially reduce transmission potential compared to non-targeted control of the population, which resulted in a linear reduction in transmission potential. Focusing on the 'wrong' functional group would have little impact upon transmission potential until a considerable proportion of the population had been subject to control. However, individuals can change their functional status over time making it difficult to predict the contribution of these individuals to future transmission.  相似文献   

3.
A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, , is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary differential equations. It is shown that, if , then the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; whereas if , then it is unstable. Thus, is a threshold parameter for the model. An analysis of the local centre manifold yields a simple criterion for the existence and stability of super- and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for near one. This criterion, together with the definition of , is illustrated by treatment, multigroup, staged progression, multistrain and vector–host models and can be applied to more complex models. The results are significant for disease control.  相似文献   

4.
  • 1 The prevalence, intensity and transmission of Nosema fumiferanae (Thomson) (Microsporidae) infections and potential impacts on the survival of field populations of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) were examined in three plots in New Brunswick, Canada, from 1983 to 1992.
  • 2 The highest prevalence of N. fumiferanae infection in post‐hibernation second‐instar larvae occurred in the plot where prevalence in female pupae was the highest in the previous generation, suggesting higher rates of vertical transmission. There was little change in the prevalence of N. fumiferanae infections between the second and sixth instars in the later generations. In the two other plots, N. fumiferanae prevalence increased by approximately 25% from the second to sixth larval stadia. Coincident with the changes in N. fumiferanae prevalence were substantial declines in the populations of spruce budworms, making it difficult to determine rates of horizontal transfer of the disease.
  • 3 In all plots and in all years, there were progressive increases in the intensity of N. fumiferanae infections (spore loads/individual) from the second to sixth instars and pupae.
  • 4 Annual spruce budworm mortality associated with N. fumiferanae was ≤15% of all mortality in reared specimens and was positively correlated with but generally less than 30% of annual N. fumiferanae prevalence.
  相似文献   

5.
1. Despite major efforts aimed at elucidating the molecular basis and physiopathology of Alzheimer's disease (AD), there is still no effective treatment available for this devastating disorder. The biological mechanisms underlying the development of AD are complex, as multiple factors appear to modulate (either positively or negatively) the progression of neurodegeneration in the brains of AD patients. Not surprisingly, a number of different therapeutic approaches aimed at distinct aspects of the disease are currently being pursued. Given its central role in the neuropathology of AD, the -amyloid peptide (A) is the focus of many such approaches.2. In this review, we discuss recent developments along three major lines of investigation: (i) identification and characterization of inhibitors of the enzymes involved in proteolytic processing of the amyloid precursor protein and production of A (ii) identification of the pathways involved in cerebral degradation and clearance of A and (iii) characterization of small-molecule inhibitors of amyloid aggregation that prevent cerebral amyloid deposition and neurotoxicity.3. Significant progress has been achieved in these directions, opening up new perspectives toward the development of effective approaches for the treatment or prevention of AD.  相似文献   

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