Timing primate evolution: Lessons from the discordance between molecular and paleontological estimates

The molecular clock has become an increasingly important tool in evolutionary biology and biological anthropology. Nevertheless, a source of contention with respect to this method is the frequent discordance with fossil‐based estimates of divergence times. The primate radiation is a case in point: Numerous studies have dated the major primate nodes (reviewed in Steiper and Young, 1 , 2 ) and there are many instances where molecular and fossil‐based estimates of divergence times differ (Fig. 1). Some investigators have recently focused on phenomena such as stratigraphic dating, the stochastic nature of molecular time estimates, and other sources as potential biases in molecular clock estimates. 3 , 4 In this paper we do not focus on accuracy or statistical error; rather, we argue that discordance is a predictable phenomenon that provides valuable information about the tempo and mode of primate molecular and morphological evolution. Using this perspective, we reexamine the principal theoretical and methodological factors that lead to discordance between molecular and fossil estimates of the origins of taxa and discuss how a better understanding of these factors can help to improve our understanding of primate evolution.     

Fossil calibrations and molecular divergence time estimates in centrarchid fishes (Teleostei: Centrarchidae)

Molecular clock methods allow biologists to estimate divergence times, which in turn play an important role in comparative studies of many evolutionary processes. It is well known that molecular age estimates can be biased by heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution, but less attention has been paid to the issue of potentially erroneous fossil calibrations. In this study we estimate the timing of diversification in Centrarchidae, an endemic major lineage of the diverse North American freshwater fish fauna, through a new approach to fossil calibration and molecular evolutionary model selection. Given a completely resolved multi-gene molecular phylogeny and a set of multiple fossil-inferred age estimates, we tested for potentially erroneous fossil calibrations using a recently developed fossil cross-validation. We also used fossil information to guide the selection of the optimal molecular evolutionary model with a new fossil jackknife method in a fossil-based model cross-validation. The centrarchid phylogeny resulted from a mixed-model Bayesian strategy that included 14 separate data partitions sampled from three mtDNA and four nuclear genes. Ten of the 31 interspecific nodes in the centrarchid phylogeny were assigned a minimal age estimate from the centrarchid fossil record. Our analyses identified four fossil dates that were inconsistent with the other fossils, and we removed them from the molecular dating analysis. Using fossil-based model cross-validation to determine the optimal smoothing value in penalized likelihood analysis, and six mutually consistent fossil calibrations, the age of the most recent common ancestor of Centrarchidae was 33.59 million years ago (mya). Penalized likelihood analyses of individual data partitions all converged on a very similar age estimate for this node, indicating that rate heterogeneity among data partitions is not confounding our analyses. These results place the origin of the centrarchid radiation at a time of major faunal turnover as the fossil record indicates that the most diverse lineages of the North American freshwater fish fauna originated at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, approximately 34 mya. This time coincided with major global climate change from warm to cool temperatures and a signature of elevated lineage extinction and origination in the fossil record across the tree of life. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of fossil cross-validation to critically assess individual fossil calibration points, providing the ability to discriminate between consistent and inconsistent fossil age estimates that are used for calibrating molecular phylogenies.     

Bayesian estimation of species divergence times under a molecular clock using multiple fossil calibrations with soft bounds

We implement a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating species divergence times that uses heterogeneous data from multiple gene loci and accommodates multiple fossil calibration nodes. A birth-death process with species sampling is used to specify a prior for divergence times, which allows easy assessment of the effects of that prior on posterior time estimates. We propose a new approach for specifying calibration points on the phylogeny, which allows the use of arbitrary and flexible statistical distributions to describe uncertainties in fossil dates. In particular, we use soft bounds, so that the probability that the true divergence time is outside the bounds is small but nonzero. A strict molecular clock is assumed in the current implementation, although this assumption may be relaxed. We apply our new algorithm to two data sets concerning divergences of several primate species, to examine the effects of the substitution model and of the prior for divergence times on Bayesian time estimation. We also conduct computer simulation to examine the differences between soft and hard bounds. We demonstrate that divergence time estimation is intrinsically hampered by uncertainties in fossil calibrations, and the error in Bayesian time estimates will not go to zero with increased amounts of sequence data. Our analyses of both real and simulated data demonstrate potentially large differences between divergence time estimates obtained using soft versus hard bounds and a general superiority of soft bounds. Our main findings are as follows. (1) When the fossils are consistent with each other and with the molecular data, and the posterior time estimates are well within the prior bounds, soft and hard bounds produce similar results. (2) When the fossils are in conflict with each other or with the molecules, soft and hard bounds behave very differently; soft bounds allow sequence data to correct poor calibrations, while poor hard bounds are impossible to overcome by any amount of data. (3) Soft bounds eliminate the need for "safe" but unrealistically high upper bounds, which may bias posterior time estimates. (4) Soft bounds allow more reliable assessment of estimation errors, while hard bounds generate misleadingly high precisions when fossils and molecules are in conflict.     

Calibrating the avian molecular clock

Molecular clocks are widely used to date phylogenetic events, yet evidence supporting the rate constancy of molecular clocks through time and across taxonomic lineages is weak. Here, we present 90 candidate avian clock calibrations obtained from fossils and biogeographical events. Cross-validation techniques were used to identify and discard 16 inconsistent calibration points. Molecular evolution occurred in an approximately clock-like manner through time for the remaining 74 calibrations of the mitochondrial gene, cytochrome b . A molecular rate of approximately 2.1% (± 0.1%, 95% confidence interval) was maintained over a 12-million-year interval and across most of 12 taxonomic orders. Minor but significant variance in rates occurred across lineages but was not explained by differences in generation time, body size or latitudinal distribution as previously suggested.     

Exploring uncertainty in the calibration of the molecular clock

Calibration is a critical step in every molecular clock analysis but it has been the least considered. Bayesian approaches to divergence time estimation make it possible to incorporate the uncertainty in the degree to which fossil evidence approximates the true time of divergence. We explored the impact of different approaches in expressing this relationship, using arthropod phylogeny as an example for which we established novel calibrations. We demonstrate that the parameters distinguishing calibration densities have a major impact upon the prior and posterior of the divergence times, and it is critically important that users evaluate the joint prior distribution of divergence times used by their dating programmes. We illustrate a procedure for deriving calibration densities in Bayesian divergence dating through the use of soft maximum constraints.     

Analyses of evolutionary dynamics in viruses are hindered by a time-dependent bias in rate estimates

Time-scales of viral evolution and emergence have been studied widely, but are often poorly understood. Molecular analyses of viral evolutionary time-scales generally rely on estimates of rates of nucleotide substitution, which vary by several orders of magnitude depending on the timeframe of measurement. We analysed data from all major groups of viruses and found a strong negative relationship between estimates of nucleotide substitution rate and evolutionary timescale. Strikingly, this relationship was upheld both within and among diverse groups of viruses. A detailed case study of primate lentiviruses revealed that the combined effects of sequence saturation and purifying selection can explain this time-dependent pattern of rate variation. Therefore, our analyses show that studies of evolutionary time-scales in viruses require a reconsideration of substitution rates as a dynamic, rather than as a static, feature of molecular evolution. Improved modelling of viral evolutionary rates has the potential to change our understanding of virus origins.     

Primate phylogeny, evolutionary rate variations, and divergence times: a contribution from the nuclear gene IRBP

The first third (ca. 1200 bp) of exon 1 of the nuclear gene encoding the interstitial retinoid-binding protein (IRBP) has been sequenced for 12 representative primates belonging to Lemuriformes, Lorisiformes, Tarsiiformes, Platyrrhini, and Catarrhini, and combined with available data (13 other primates, 11 nonprimate placentals, and 2 marsupials). Phylogenetic analyses using maximum likelihood on nucleotides and amino acids robustly support the monophyly of primates, Strepsirrhini, Lemuriformes, Lorisiformes, Anthropoidea, Catarrhini, and Platyrrhini. It is interesting to note that 1) Tarsiidae grouped with Anthropoidea, and the support for this node depends on the molecular characters considered; 2) Cheirogaleidae grouped within Lemuriformes; and 3) Daubentonia was the sister group of all other Lemuriformes. Study of the IRBP evolutionary rate shows a high heterogeneity within placentals and also within primates. Maximum likelihood local molecular clocks were assigned to three clades displaying significantly contrasted evolutionary rates. Paenungulata were shown to evolve 2.5-3 times faster than Perissodactyla and Lemuriformes. Six independent calibration points were used to estimate splitting ages of the main primate clades, and their compatibility was evaluated. Divergence ages were obtained for the following crown groups: 13.8-14.2 MY for Lorisiformes, 26.5-27.2 MY for Lemuroidea, 39.6-40.7 MY for Lemuriformes, 45.4-46.7 MY for Strepsirrhini, and 56.7-58.4 MY for Haplorrhini. The incompatibility between some paleontological and molecular estimates may reflect the incompleteness of the placental fossil record, and/or indicate that the variable IRBP evolutionary rates are not fully accommodated by local molecular clocks.     

Timing the eastern Asian-eastern North American floristic disjunction: molecular clock corroborates paleontological estimates

Sequence data of the chloroplast gene rbcL were used to estimate the time of the well-known eastern Asian-eastern North American floristic disjunction. Sequence divergence of rbcL was examined for 22 species of 11 genera (Campsis, Caulophyllum, Cornus, Decumaria, Liriodendron, Menispermum, Mitchella, Pachysandra, Penthorum, Podophyllum, and Phryma) representing a diverse array of flowering plants occurring disjunctly in eastern Asia and eastern North America. Divergence times of putative disjunct species pairs were estimated from synonymous substitutions, using rbcL molecular clocks calibrated for Cornus. Relative rate tests were performed to assess rate constancy of rbcL evolution among lineages. Corrections of estimates of divergence times for each species pair were made based on rate differences of rbcL between Cornus and other species pairs. Results of these analyses indicate that the time of divergence of species pairs examined ranges from 12.56 +/- 4.30 million years to recent (<0.31 million years), with most within the last 10 million years (in the late Miocene and Pliocene). These results suggest that the isolation of most morphologically similar disjunct species in eastern Asia and eastern North America occurred during the global climatic cooling period that took place throughout the late Tertiary and Quaternary. This estimate is closely correlated with paleontological evidence and in agreement with the hypothesis that considers the eastern Asian-eastern North American floristic disjunction to be the result of the range restriction of a once more or less continuously distributed mixed mesophytic forest of the Northern Hemisphere that occurred during the late Tertiary and Quaternary. This implies that in most taxa the disjunction may have resulted from vicariance events. However, long-distance dispersal may explain the disjunct distribution of taxa with low divergence, such as Menispermum.     

A mitogenomic timescale for birds detects variable phylogenetic rates of molecular evolution and refutes the standard molecular clock

Current understanding of the diversification of birds is hindered by their incomplete fossil record and uncertainty in phylogenetic relationships and phylogenetic rates of molecular evolution. Here we performed the first comprehensive analysis of mitogenomic data of 48 vertebrates, including 35 birds, to derive a Bayesian timescale for avian evolution and to estimate rates of DNA evolution. Our approach used multiple fossil time constraints scattered throughout the phylogenetic tree and accounts for uncertainties in time constraints, branch lengths, and heterogeneity of rates of DNA evolution. We estimated that the major vertebrate lineages originated in the Permian; the 95% credible intervals of our estimated ages of the origin of archosaurs (258 MYA), the amniote-amphibian split (356 MYA), and the archosaur-lizard divergence (278 MYA) bracket estimates from the fossil record. The origin of modern orders of birds was estimated to have occurred throughout the Cretaceous beginning about 139 MYA, arguing against a cataclysmic extinction of lineages at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary. We identified fossils that are useful as time constraints within vertebrates. Our timescale reveals that rates of molecular evolution vary across genes and among taxa through time, thereby refuting the widely used mitogenomic or cytochrome b molecular clock in birds. Moreover, the 5-Myr divergence time assumed between 2 genera of geese (Branta and Anser) to originally calibrate the standard mitochondrial clock rate of 0.01 substitutions per site per lineage per Myr (s/s/l/Myr) in birds was shown to be underestimated by about 9.5 Myr. Phylogenetic rates in birds vary between 0.0009 and 0.012 s/s/l/Myr, indicating that many phylogenetic splits among avian taxa also have been underestimated and need to be revised. We found no support for the hypothesis that the molecular clock in birds "ticks" according to a constant rate of substitution per unit of mass-specific metabolic energy rather than per unit of time, as recently suggested. Our analysis advances knowledge of rates of DNA evolution across birds and other vertebrates and will, therefore, aid comparative biology studies that seek to infer the origin and timing of major adaptive shifts in vertebrates.     

A fossil-calibrated relaxed clock for Ephedra indicates an Oligocene age for the divergence of Asian and New World clades and Miocene dispersal into South America

Ephedra comprises approximately 50 species, which are roughly equally distributed between the Old and New World deserts, but not in the intervening regions （amphitropical range）. Great heterogeneity in the substitution rates of Gnetales （Ephedra, Gnetum, and Welwitschia） has made it difficult to infer the ages of the major divergence events in Ephedra, such as the timing of the Beringian disjunction in the genus and the entry into South America. Here, we use data from as many Gnetales species and genes as available from GenBank and from a recent study to investigate the timing of the major divergence events. Because of the tradeoff between the amount of missing data and taxon/gene sampling, we reduced the initial matrix of 265 accessions and 12 loci to 95 accessions and 10 loci, and further to 42 species （and 7736 aligned nucleotides） to achieve stationary distributions in the Bayesian molecular clock runs. Results from a relaxed clock with an uncorrelated rates model and fossil-based calibration reveal that New World species are monophyletic and diverged from their mostly Asian sister clade some 30 mya, fitting with many other Beringian disjunctions. The split between the single North American and the single South American clade occurred approximately 25 mya, well before the closure of the Panamanian Isthmus. Overall, the biogeographic history of Ephedra appears dominated by long-distance dispersal, but finer-scale studies are needed to test this hypothesis.     

Complex evolution of orthologous and paralogous decarboxylase genes

The decarboxylases are involved in neurotransmitter synthesis in animals, and in pathways of secondary metabolism in plants. Different decarboxylase proteins are characterized for their different substrate specificities, but are encoded by homologous genes. We study, within a maximum-likelihood framework, the evolutionary relationships among dopa decarboxylase (Ddc), histidine decarboxylase (Hdc) and alpha-methyldopa hypersensitive (amd) in animals, and tryptophan decarboxylase (Wdc) and tyrosine decarboxylase (Ydc) in plants. The evolutionary rates are heterogeneous. There are differences between paralogous genes in the same lineages: 4.13 x 10(-10) nucleotide substitutions per site per year in mammalian Ddc vs. 1.95 in Hdc; between orthologous genes in different lineages, 7.62 in dipteran Ddc vs. 4.13 in mammalian Ddc; and very large temporal variations in some lineages, from 3.7 up to 54.9 in the Drosophila Ddc lineage. Our results are inconsistent with the molecular clock hypothesis.     

DNA turnover and the molecular clock

Summary Many detailed studies on the mechanisms by which different components of eukaryotic nuclear genomes have diverged reveal that the majority of sequences are seemingly not passively accumulating base substitutions in a clocklike manner solely determined by laws of diffusion at the population level. It appears that variation in the rates, units, biases, and gradients of several DNA turnover mechanisms are contributing to the course of DNA divergence. Turnover mechanisms have the potential to retard, maintain, or accelerate the rate of DNA differentiation between populations. Furthermore, examples are known of coding and noncoding DNA subject to the simultaneous operation of several turnover mechanisms leading to complex patterns of fine-scale restructuring and divergence, generally uninterpretable using selection and/or neutral drift arguments in isolation. Constancy in the rate of divergence, where observed over defined periods of time, could be a reflection of constancy in the rates and units of turnover. However, a consideration of the generally large disparity between rates of turnover and mutation reveals that DNA clocks, which would be independently driven by turnover in separate genomic components, would tend to be episodic. The utility of any given DNA sequence for measuring time and species relationships, like individual proteins, is proportional to the extent to which all contributing forces to the evolution of the sequence, internal and external, are understood.     

Molecular phylogeny and divergence times of deuterostome animals

The phylogenetic relationships among deuterostome animals have been debated for many years, and a diversity of hypotheses have been proposed based on both morphological and molecular data. Here we have assembled sequences of 217 nuclear-encoded proteins to address specific questions concerning their relationships and times of origin. We recovered significant support for urochordates as the closest relative of vertebrates with an analysis of 59 proteins (17,400 amino acids) and suggest that the basal position of urochordates found in previous molecular studies may have been the result of long-branch attraction biases. Our results also support Ambulacraria, the pairing of hemichordates with echinoderms (nine proteins; 2,382 amino acids), and Cyclostomata, the pairing of lampreys with hagfish (25 proteins; 6,895 amino acids). In addition, 325 shared proteins (102,110 amino acids) were obtained from the complete genomes of six vertebrates and a urochordate for phylogenetic analysis and divergence time estimation. An evolutionary timescale was estimated using a local (Bayesian) molecular clock method. We found that most major lineages of deuterostomes arose prior to the Cambrian Explosion of fossils (approximately 520 MYA) and that several lineages had originated before periods of global glaciation in the Precambrian.     

A fossil‐calibrated relaxed clock for Ephedra indicates an Oligocene age for the divergence of Asian and New World clades and Miocene dispersal into South America

Abstract Ephedra comprises approximately 50 species, which are roughly equally distributed between the Old and New World deserts, but not in the intervening regions (amphitropical range). Great heterogeneity in the substitution rates of Gnetales (Ephedra, Gnetum, and Welwitschia) has made it difficult to infer the ages of the major divergence events in Ephedra, such as the timing of the Beringian disjunction in the genus and the entry into South America. Here, we use data from as many Gnetales species and genes as available from GenBank and from a recent study to investigate the timing of the major divergence events. Because of the tradeoff between the amount of missing data and taxon/gene sampling, we reduced the initial matrix of 265 accessions and 12 loci to 95 accessions and 10 loci, and further to 42 species (and 7736 aligned nucleotides) to achieve stationary distributions in the Bayesian molecular clock runs. Results from a relaxed clock with an uncorrelated rates model and fossil‐based calibration reveal that New World species are monophyletic and diverged from their mostly Asian sister clade some 30 mya, fitting with many other Beringian disjunctions. The split between the single North American and the single South American clade occurred approximately 25 mya, well before the closure of the Panamanian Isthmus. Overall, the biogeographic history of Ephedra appears dominated by long‐distance dispersal, but finer‐scale studies are needed to test this hypothesis.     

Estimating divergence times in the presence of an overdispersed molecular clock

Molecular loci that fail relative-rate tests are said to be "overdispersed." Traditional molecular-clock approaches to estimating divergence times do not take this into account. In this study, a method was developed to estimate divergence times using loci that may be overdispersed. The approach was to replace the traditional Poisson process assumption with a more general stationary process assumption. A probability model was developed, and an accompanying computer program was written to find maximum-likelihood estimates of divergence times under both the Poisson process and the stationary process assumptions. In simulation, it was shown that confidence intervals under the traditional Poisson assumptions often vastly underestimate the true confidence limits for overdispersed loci. Both models were applied to two data sets: one from land plants, the other from the higher metazoans. In both cases, the traditional Poisson process model could be rejected with high confidence. Maximum-likelihood analysis of the metazoan data set under the more general stationary process suggested that their radiation occurred well over a billion years ago, but confidence intervals were extremely wide. It was also shown that a model consistent with a Cambrian (or nearly Cambrian) origination of the animal phyla, although significantly less likely than a much older divergence, fitted the data well. It is argued that without an a priori understanding of the variance in the time between substitutions, molecular data sets may be incapable of ever establishing the age of the metazoan radiation.     

Codon usage divergence of homologous vertebrate genes and codon usage clock

Summary This paper is concerned with the divergence of synonymous codon usage and its bias in three homologous genes within vertebrate species. Genetic distances among species are described in terms of synonymous codon usage divergence and the correlation is found between the genetic distances and taxonomic distances among species under study. A codon usage clock is reported in alphaglobin and beta-globin. A method is developed to define the synonymous codon preference bias and it is observed that the bias changes considerably among species.     

Echinoids (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) from the Gulf of Mexico

The echinoid fauna of the Gulf of Mexico collected during three research cruises (20-1260 m depth) was surveyed from samples were taken at 43 stations. A total of 190 individuals were identified (eight orders, 11 families, 15 genera and 18 species). Six species are new records for the Gulf of Mexico: Stylocidaris lineata, Phormosoma placenta placenta, Plesiodiadema antillarum, Plethotaenia spatangoides, Brissopsis atlantica and Hypselaster limicolus. This adds to the little information available on the echinoid fauna of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatan states in Mexico.     

Phagostimulation of Lytechinus variegatus (Lamarck) (Echinodermata: Echinoidea)

Artificial agarose foods containing either starch, glycogen, carragheenan, alginate, casein, gelatin, albumin, or peptones at a concentration of 1% dry weight were not phagostimulatory. Artificial foods containing sugars, especially galactose, at a concentration of 0.005 M were phagostimulatory. Of the common amino acids, only L‐phenylalanine was phagostimulatory at this concentration. The initiation of feeding postures (movement of the spines, tube feet, peristome, and Aristotle's lantern) of Lytechinus variegatus was little affected by the concentration of plant extracts. Many aspects of this behavior were attributable to physical rather than chemical stimulation. Feeding rates of L. variegatus upon artificial agarose foods containing either Thalassia testudinum or Gracilaria verrucosa were directly dependent upon plant tissue concentration. All artificial agarose food‐items were initially moved to the mouth and fed upon, however the time spent feeding was directly dependent upon plant type and tissue concentration. Retention of the artificial food‐items upon the test after feeding was not influenced by plant type or tissue concentration. Differences in consumption of foods by L. variegatus are determined by the degree of persistence in feeding upon encountered items and not be selection before initiating feeding or by retention of food‐items for subsequent feedings.     

Calibrating molecular estimates of substitution rates and divergence times in birds

Many evolutionary studies of birds rely on the estimation of molecular divergence times and substitution rates. In order to perform such analyses, it is necessary to incorporate some form of calibration information: a known substitution rate, radiometric ages of heterochronous sequences, or inferred ages of lineage splitting events. All three of these techniques have been employed in avian molecular studies, but their usage has not been entirely satisfactory. For example, the 'traditional' avian mitochondrial substitution rate of 2% per million years is frequently adopted without acknowledgement of the associated uncertainty. Similarly, fossil and biogeographic information is almost always converted into an errorless calibration point. In both cases, the resulting estimates of divergence times and substitution rates will be artificially precise, which has a considerable impact on hypothesis testing. In addition, using such a simplistic approach to calibration discards much of the information offered by the fossil record. A number of more sophisticated calibration methods have recently been introduced, culminating in the development of probability distribution-based calibrations. In this article, I discuss the use of this new class of methods and offer guidelines for choosing a calibration technique.