Sex determination and optimal development in the Moorish gecko,Tarentola mauritanica

Under temperature sex determination (TSD), sex is determined by temperature during embryonic development. Depending on ecological and physiological traits and plasticity, TSD species may face demographic collapse due to climate change. In this context, asymmetry in bilateral organisms can be used as a proxy for developmental instability and, therefore, deviations from optimal incubation conditions. Using Tarentola mauritanica gecko as a model, this study aimed first to confirm TSD, its pattern and pivotal temperature, and second to assess the local adaptation of TSD and variation of asymmetry patterns across four populations under different thermal regimes. Eggs were incubated at different temperatures, and hatchlings were sexed and measured. The number of lamellae was counted in adults and hatchlings. Results were compatible with a TSD pattern with males generated at low and females at high incubation temperatures. Estimated pivotal temperature coincided with the temperature producing lower embryonic mortality, evidencing selection towards balanced sex ratios. The temperature of oviposition was conservatively selected by gravid females. Asymmetry patterns found were likely related to nest temperature fluctuations. Overall, the rigidity of TSD may compromise reproductive success, and demographic stability in this species in case thermal nest choice becomes constrained by climate change.     

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature‐dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival

Temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.     

Temperature-dependent sex determination in fish revisited: prevalence, a single sex ratio response pattern, and possible effects of climate change

Background

In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD) or temperature-dependent (TSD). Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1–2°C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1∶1 (males∶females) up to 3∶1 in both freshwater and marine species.

Conclusions/Significance

We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change.     

Implications of climate change for the reproductive capacity and survival of New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae)

The New World silversides (family Atherinopsidae) are found in marine, estuarine and inland waters of North, Central and South America, where they are ecologically important as forage fishes and sometimes economically important for commercial and recreational fisheries. This report reviews the knowledge of the reproductive attributes of temperate and subtropical atherinopsids in relation to temperature and discusses the potential effects of climate change on their reproduction and adaptive responses. Their reproductive cycles are primarily entrained by photoperiod with high temperature acting as a limiting factor. They are generally multiple spawners which release successive batches of eggs in spring, but some species can spawn also in autumn and even summer when temperatures do not increase excessively. The decoupling of temperature patterns and photoperiod with further global warming and associated asymmetric thermal fluctuations could lead to spawning at times or temperatures that are unsuitable for larval development and growth. Many members of this family show temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), where the phenotypic sex of an individual is determined partly or wholly by the temperature experienced during gonadal sex differentiation, and high-temperature induced germ cell degeneration and decreased fertility. The predicted short-term reproductive responses of atherinopsids to climate change therefore include acceleration, shortening or overall disruption of spawning activity, and also more subtle, but nonetheless equally population-threatening, dysfunctions such as highly skewed sex ratios and partial or total loss of fertility. In the case of species with TSD, asymmetric thermal fluctuations could also cause larvae to encounter temperatures lower than normal during early development and be feminized. Such dysfunctions have been documented already in natural populations but are confined so far to landlocked, inland water habitats, perhaps because they impose more severe thermal fluctuations and limitations to migration and dispersal. The severity and recurrence of these dysfunctions with further climate change will depend both on the magnitude, speed and pattern of change and on how much (or how fast) physiological and behavioural traits can evolve to match the new conditions imposed by the climate, which is largely unknown. In this regard, compelling evidence is shown that numerous traits, including the sex determination system, are capable of rapid evolution and could mitigate the negative effects of temperature increases on population viability in atherinopsids.     

Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?

How will climate change affect species'' reproduction and subsequent survival? In many egg-laying reptiles, the sex of offspring is determined by the temperature experienced during a critical period of embryonic development (temperature-dependent sex determination, TSD). Increasing air temperatures are likely to skew offspring sex ratios in the absence of evolutionary or plastic adaptation, hence we urgently require means for predicting the future distributions of species with TSD. Here we develop a mechanistic model that demonstrates how climate, soil and topography interact with physiology and nesting behaviour to determine sex ratios of tuatara, cold-climate reptiles from New Zealand with an unusual developmental biology. Under extreme regional climate change, all-male clutches would hatch at 100% of current nest sites of the rarest species, Sphenodon guntheri, by the mid-2080s. We show that tuatara could behaviourally compensate for the male-biasing effects of warmer air temperatures by nesting later in the season or selecting shaded nest sites. Later nesting is, however, an unlikely response to global warming, as many oviparous species are nesting earlier as the climate warms. Our approach allows the assessment of the thermal suitability of current reserves and future translocation sites for tuatara, and can be readily modified to predict climatic impacts on any species with TSD.     

Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in Sea Turtles in the Context of Climate Change: Uncovering the Adaptive Significance

The adaptive significance of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in reptiles remains unknown decades after TSD was first identified in this group. Concurrently, there is growing concern about the effect that rising temperatures may have on species with TSD, potentially producing extremely biased sex ratios or offspring of only one sex. The current state-of the-art in TSD research on sea turtles is reviewed here and, against current paradigm, it is proposed that TSD provides an advantage under warming climates. By means of coadaptation between early survival and sex ratios, sea turtles are able to maintain populations. When offspring survival declines at high temperatures, the sex that increases future fecundity (females) is produced, increasing resilience to climate warming. TSD could have helped reptiles to survive mass extinctions in the past via this model. Flaws in research on sex determination in sea turtles are also identified and it is suggested that the development of new techniques will revolutionize the field.     

Is the future female for turtles? Climate change and wetland configuration predict sex ratios of a freshwater species

Climate change and land-use change are leading drivers of biodiversity decline, affecting demographic parameters that are important for population persistence. For example, scientists have speculated for decades that climate change may skew adult sex ratios in taxa that express temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but limited evidence exists that this phenomenon is occurring in natural settings. For species that are vulnerable to anthropogenic land-use practices, differential mortality among sexes may also skew sex ratios. We sampled the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata), a freshwater species with TSD, across a large portion of its geographic range (Florida to Maine), to assess the environmental factors influencing adult sex ratios. We present evidence that suggests recent climate change has potentially skewed the adult sex ratio of spotted turtles, with samples following a pattern of increased proportions of females concomitant with warming trends, but only within the warmer areas sampled. At intermediate temperatures, there was no relationship with climate, while in the cooler areas we found the opposite pattern, with samples becoming more male biased with increasing temperatures. These patterns might be explained in part by variation in relative adaptive capacity via phenotypic plasticity in nest site selection. Our findings also suggest that spotted turtles have a context-dependent and multi-scale relationship with land use. We observed a negative relationship between male proportion and the amount of crop cover (within 300 m) when wetlands were less spatially aggregated. However, when wetlands were aggregated, sex ratios remained consistent. This pattern may reflect sex-specific patterns in movement that render males more vulnerable to mortality from agricultural machinery and other threats. Our findings highlight the complexity of species' responses to both climate change and land use, and emphasize the role that landscape structure can play in shaping wildlife population demographics.     

Climate effects on offspring sex ratio in a viviparous lizard

1. Understanding individual and population responses to climate change is emerging as an important challenge. Because many phenotypic traits are sensitive to environmental conditions, directional climate change could significantly alter trait distribution within populations and may generate an evolutionary response. 2. In species with environment-dependent sex determination, climate change may lead to skewed sex ratios at hatching or birth. However, there are virtually no empirical data on the putative link between climatic parameters and sex ratios from natural populations. 3. We monitored a natural population of viviparous lizards with temperature-dependent sex determination (Niveoscincus ocellatus) over seven field seasons. Sex ratios at birth fluctuated significantly among years and closely tracked thermal conditions in the field, with the proportion of male offspring increasing in colder years. 4. This is the first study to demonstrate the effect of local climatic conditions (e.g. temperature) on offspring sex ratio fluctuations in a free-living population of a viviparous ectotherm. A succession of warmer-than-usual years (as predicted under many climate-change scenarios) likely would generate female-biased sex ratios at birth, while an increase in interannual variation (as also predicted under climate change scenarios) could lead to significant fluctuations in cohort sex ratios. If cohort sex ratio bias at birth leads to adult sex ratio bias, long-term directional changes in thermal conditions may have important effects on population dynamics in this species.     

Under what conditions do climate‐driven sex ratios enhance versus diminish population persistence?

For many species of reptile, crucial demographic parameters such as embryonic survival and individual sex (male or female) depend on ambient temperature during incubation. While much has been made of the role of climate on offspring sex ratios in species with temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD), the impact of variable sex ratio on populations is likely to depend on how limiting male numbers are to female fecundity in female‐biased populations, and whether a climatic effect on embryonic survival overwhelms or interacts with sex ratio. To examine the sensitivity of populations to these interacting factors, we developed a generalized model to explore the effects of embryonic survival, hatchling sex ratio, and the interaction between these, on population size and persistence while varying the levels of male limitation. Populations with TSD reached a greater maximum number of females compared to populations with GSD, although this was often associated with a narrower range of persistence. When survival depended on temperature, TSD populations persisted over a greater range of temperatures than GSD populations. This benefit of TSD was greatly reduced by even modest male limitation, indicating very strong importance of this largely unmeasured biologic factor. Finally, when males were not limiting, a steep relationship between sex ratio and temperature favoured population persistence across a wider range of climates compared to the shallower relationships. The opposite was true when males were limiting – shallow relationships between sex ratio and temperature allowed greater persistence. The results highlight that, if we are to predict the response of populations with TSD to climate change, it is imperative to 1) accurately quantify the extent to which male abundance limits female fecundity, and 2) measure how sex ratios and peak survival coincide over climate.     

How rapidly can maternal behavior affecting primary sex ratio evolve in a reptile with environmental sex determination?

Theoretical models identify maternal behavior as critical for the maintenance and evolution of sex ratios in organisms with environmental sex determination (ESD). Maternal choice of nest site is generally thought to respond more rapidly to sex ratio selection than environmental sensitivity of offspring sex (threshold temperatures) in reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD, a form of ESD). However, knowledge of the evolutionary potential for either of these traits in a field setting is limited. I developed a simulation model using local climate data and observed levels of phenotypic variation for nest-site choice and threshold temperatures in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with TSD. Both nest-site choice and threshold temperatures, and hence sex ratios, evolved slowly to simulated climate change scenarios. In contrast to expectations from previous models, nest-site choice evolved more slowly than threshold temperatures because of large climatic effects on nest temperatures and indirect selection on maternally expressed traits. A variant of the model, assuming inheritance of nest-site choice through natal imprinting, demonstrated that natal imprinting inhibited adaptive responses in female nest-site choice to climate change. These results predict that females have relatively low potential to adaptively adjust sex ratios through nest-site choice.     

Ovotestes suggest cryptic genetic influence in a reptile model for temperature-dependent sex determination

Sex determination and differentiation in reptiles is complex. Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), genetic sex determination (GSD) and the interaction of both environmental and genetic cues (sex reversal) can drive the development of sexual phenotypes. The jacky dragon (Amphibolurus muricatus) is an attractive model species for the study of gene–environment interactions because it displays a form of Type II TSD, where female-biased sex ratios are observed at extreme incubation temperatures and approximately 50 : 50 sex ratios occur at intermediate temperatures. This response to temperature has been proposed to occur due to underlying sex determining loci, the influence of which is overridden at extreme temperatures. Thus, sex reversal at extreme temperatures is predicted to produce the female-biased sex ratios observed in A. muricatus. The occurrence of ovotestes during development is a cellular marker of temperature sex reversal in a closely related species Pogona vitticeps. Here, we present the first developmental data for A. muricatus, and show that ovotestes occur at frequencies consistent with a mode of sex determination that is intermediate between GSD and TSD. This is the first evidence suggestive of underlying unidentified sex determining loci in a species that has long been used as a model for TSD.     

Nest-site selection in two eublepharid gecko species with temperature-dependent sex determination and one with genotypic sex determination

At present, most turtles, all crocodilians, and several lizards are known to have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Due to the dependence of sex determination on incubation temperature, the long-term survival of TSD species may be jeopardized by global climate changes. The current study was designed to assess the degree to which this concern is justified by examining nest-site selection in two species of Pattern II TSD geckos (Eublepharis macularius and Hemitheconyx caudicinctus) and comparing these preferences with those of a species with genotypic sex determination (GSD) (Coleonyx mitratus). Temperature preferences for nest sites were found to be both species-specific and female-specific. While H. caudicinctus females selected a mean nest-site temperature (32.4°) very close to the upper pivotal temperature (32°C) for the species, E. macularius females selected a mean nest-site temperature (28.7°C) well below this species' lower pivotal temperature (30.5°C). Thus, the resultant sex ratios are expected to differ between these two TSD species. Additionally, nest-site temperatures for the GSD species were significantly more variable (SE=+0.37) than were temperatures for either of the TSD species (E. macularius SE=±0.10; H. caudicinctus SE =+ 0.17), diereby further demonstrating temperature preferences within the TSD species.     

Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination: can individual plasticity in nesting phenology prevent extreme sex ratios?

Under temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long-term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population-level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long-term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether individual plasticity in the timing of nesting has the capacity to offset the sex ratio effects of a rise in climatic temperature. We find that individual females show plasticity in the date of first nesting each year, and that this plasticity depends on the climate from the previous winter. First nesting date is not repeatable within individuals, suggesting that it would not respond to selection. Sex ratios of hatchlings within a nest declined nonsignificantly over the nesting season. However, small increases in summer temperature had a much stronger effect on nest sex ratios than did laying nests earlier in the season. For this and other reasons, it seems unlikely that individual plasticity in the timing of nesting will offset the effects of climate change on sex ratios in this population, and we hypothesize that this conclusion applies to other populations with TSD.     

The ecology and evolution of temperature‐dependent reaction norms for sex determination in reptiles: a mechanistic conceptual model

Sex‐determining mechanisms are broadly categorised as being based on either genetic or environmental factors. Vertebrate sex determination exhibits remarkable diversity but displays distinct phylogenetic patterns. While all eutherian mammals possess XY male heterogamety and female heterogamety (ZW) is ubiquitous in birds, poikilothermic vertebrates (fish, amphibians and reptiles) exhibit multiple genetic sex‐determination (GSD) systems as well as environmental sex determination (ESD). Temperature is the factor controlling ESD in reptiles and temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) in reptiles has become a focal point in the study of this phenomenon. Current patterns of climate change may cause detrimental skews in the population sex ratios of reptiles exhibiting TSD. Understanding the patterns of variation, both within and among populations and linking such patterns with the selection processes they are associated with, is the central challenge of research aimed at predicting the capacity of populations to adapt to novel conditions. Here we present a conceptual model that innovates by defining an individual reaction norm for sex determination as a range of incubation temperatures. By deconstructing individual reaction norms for TSD and revealing their underlying interacting elements, we offer a conceptual solution that explains how variation among individual reaction norms can be inferred from the pattern of population reaction norms. The model also links environmental variation with the different patterns of TSD and describes the processes from which they may arise. Specific climate scenarios are singled out as eco‐evolutionary traps that may lead to demographic extinction or a transition to either male or female heterogametic GSD. We describe how the conceptual principles can be applied to interpret TSD data and to explain the adaptive capacity of TSD to climate change as well as its limits and the potential applications for conservation and management programs.     

Temperature dependent sex determination and climate change

One possible response of species to climate change is shifting their geographical range so as to track their climatic niche. Many concerns have been raised about the species ability to disperse effectively. I argue that species may have mechanisms, like temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), that are responsive to climate change and may facilitate an appropriate shift in their geographical range. More specifically, I hypothesize that, under stable climatic conditions, populations of some TSD species at the edge of their range are regulated by reduced growth rate (due to skewed sex ratios or due to limited availability of suitable nesting sites). Under climate change, these populations face new climatic conditions that trigger fast population growth (e.g. by more balanced sex ratio, or greater availability of nesting sites). Increased population size may lead to increased dispersal, and thus efficient colonization of the newly created habitat patches. So, the species rapidly tracks the geographical position of its climatic niche. This conceptual model is speculative but it leads to specific hypotheses, and opens up new research questions about the existence of prior adaptations that will enable the appropriate response to climate change.     

Unexpected resilience of species with temperature-dependent sex determination at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary

It has been suggested that climate change at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary, initiated by a bolide impact or volcanic eruptions, caused species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), including dinosaurs, to go extinct because of a skewed sex ratio towards all males. To test this hypothesis, the sex-determining mechanisms (SDMs) of Cretaceous tetrapods of the Hell Creek Formation (Montana, USA) were inferred using parsimony optimizations of SDMs on a tree, including Hell Creek species and their extant relatives. Although the SDMs of non-avian dinosaurs could not be inferred, we were able to determine the SDMs of 62 species; 46 had genotypic sex determination (GSD) and 16 had TSD. The TSD hypothesis for extinctions performed poorly, predicting between 32 and 34 per cent of survivals and extinctions. Most surprisingly, of the 16 species with TSD, 14 of them survived into the Early Palaeocene. In contrast, 61 per cent of species with GSD went extinct. Possible explanations include minimal climate change at the K-Pg, or if climate change did occur, TSD species that survived had egg-laying behaviour that prevented the skewing of sex ratios, or had a sex ratio skewed towards female rather than male preponderance. Application of molecular clocks may allow the SDMs of non-avian dinosaurs to be inferred, which would be an important test of the pattern discovered here.     

Phenotypic/genotypic sex mismatches and temperature‐dependent sex determination in a wild population of an Old World atherinid,the cobaltcap silverside Hypoatherina tsurugae

Several New World atheriniforms have been recognized as temperature‐dependent sex determined (TSD) and yet possess a genotypic sex determinant (amhy) which is primarily functional at mid‐range temperatures. In contrast, little is known about the sex determination in Old World atheriniforms, even though such knowledge is crucial to understand the evolution of sex determination mechanisms in fishes and to model the effects of global warming and climate change on their populations. This study examined the effects of water temperature on sex determination of an Old World atheriniform, the cobaltcap silverside Hypoatherina tsurugae, in which we recently described an amhy homologue. We first assessed the occurrence of phenotypic/genotypic sex mismatches in wild specimens from Tokyo Bay for three years (2014–2016) and used otolith analysis to estimate their birth dates and approximate thermal history during the presumptive period of sex determination. Phenotypic sex ratios became progressively biased towards males (47.3%–78.2%) during the period and were associated with year‐to‐year increases in the frequency of XX‐males (7.3%–52.0%) and decreases in XY/YY‐females (14.5%–0%). The breeding season had similar length but was delayed by about 1 month per year between 2014 and 2016, causing larvae to experience higher temperatures during the period of sex determination from year to year. Larval rearing experiments confirmed increased likelihood of feminization and masculinization at low and high temperatures, respectively. The results suggest that cobaltcap silverside has TSD, or more specifically the coexistence of genotypic and environmental sex determinants, and that it affects sex ratios in wild populations.     

Segregating variation for temperature-dependent sex determination in a lizard

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) was first reported in 1966 in an African lizard. It has since been shown that TSD occurs in some fish, several lizards, tuataras, numerous turtles and all crocodilians. Extreme temperatures can also cause sex reversal in several amphibians and lizards with genotypic sex determination. Research in TSD species indicates that estrogen signaling is important for ovary development and that orthologs of mammalian genes have a function in gonad differentiation. Nevertheless, the mechanism that actually transduces temperature into a biological signal for ovary versus testis development is not known in any species. Classical genetics could be used to identify the loci underlying TSD, but only if there is segregating variation for TSD. Here, we use the ‘animal model'' to analyze inheritance of sexual phenotype in a 13-generation pedigree of captive leopard geckos, Eublepharis macularius, a TSD reptile. We directly show genetic variance and genotype-by-temperature interactions for sex determination. Additive genetic variation was significant at a temperature that produces a female-biased sex ratio (30 °C), but not at a temperature that produces a male-biased sex ratio (32.5 °C). Conversely, dominance variance was significant at the male-biased temperature (32.5 °C), but not at the female-biased temperature (30 °C). Non-genetic maternal effects on sex determination were negligible in comparison with additive genetic variance, dominance variance and the primary effect of temperature. These data show for the first time that there is segregating variation for TSD in a reptile and consequently that a quantitative trait locus analysis would be practicable for identifying the genes underlying TSD.     

Will all species with temperature‐dependent sex determination respond the same way to climate change? A reply to Kallimanis (2010)

Recently, Kallimanis (2010) published a paper proposing a mechanism by which temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) may play a key role at facilitating species with this strategy to track their climatic niches across space under climate change. Kallimanis hypothesized that TSD species currently inhabiting stable climatic conditions show reduced population growth rates at the edges of their distributional ranges; under warming conditions, these populations will experience faster growth rates and thus are able to colonize new suitable sites. These ideas are based on the assumption that populations of TSD species have balanced sex ratios at the core of their geographic ranges and biased proportions at the edges. However, Kallimanis’ model overlooks complex processes that may produce a more broadly and less predictable aftermath of climate change on TSD species, so we discuss some of his postulates and underlying assumptions. Kallimanis’ model is based only on one of three known TSD strategies in reptiles, thus it lacks generality; and it does not consider the phenological, behavioral, and physiological strategies that TSD species exhibit across their geographic ranges to buffer the potential impacts of climatic variation over the whole reproductive process. We conclude that simple models such as the one proposed by Kallimanis are not broadly applicable; hence, forecasts of TSD species’ responses to climate change will need to be more specific to groups with similar ecologies and modes of TSD.