The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

Geography of Invasion in Mountain Streams: Consequences of Headwater Lake Fish Introductions

The introduction of fish into high-elevation lakes can provide a geographic and demographic boost to their invasion of stream networks, thereby further endangering the native stream fauna. Increasingly, remaining populations of native salmonids are concentrated in fragmented headwater refugia that are protected by physical or biological barriers from introduced fishes that originate in the pervasive source populations established at lower elevations. Although fish introduced near mainstem rivers frequently encounter obstacles to upstream dispersal, such as steep slopes or falls, we found that brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) dispersed downstream through channel slopes of 80% and 18-m-high falls. Thus, headwater lake stocking provides source populations that may be capable of invading most downstream habitats, including headwater refugia of native fishes. The extent of additional area invasible from lakes, beyond that invasible from downstream, depends on the geography of the stream network, particularly the density and distribution of headwater lakes and their location relative to barriers inhibiting upstream dispersal. In the thermal and trophic environments downstream of lakes, fish commonly grow faster and thus mature earlier and have higher fecundity-at-age than their counterparts in other high-elevation streams. The resulting higher rates of population growth facilitate invasion. Larger body sizes also potentially aid the fish in overcoming barriers to invasion. Trout introductions to high-elevation headwater lakes thus pose disproportionately large risks to native fishes—even when the place of introduction may appear to be spatially dissociated from populations of the native species. Mapping the potential invasible area can help to establish priorities in stocking and eradication efforts. Received 28 March 2000; accepted 9 February 2001.     

Determining vulnerability of stream communities to climate change at the landscape scale

1. As the climate changes, species are expected to shift to higher latitudes and altitudes where suitable habitat is available if dispersal is not constrained by geographic barriers. We analyse patterns of turnover in freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to identify which communities are most likely to be at risk from climate change, and the location of geographic barriers that could impede such adaptive range shifts. 2. We analysed macroinvertebrate data from standard biological assessments at the family level, from surveys of all coastal basins of New South Wales, Australia, covering a latitudinal gradient of more than 1000 km. We used variance partitioning to separate the variation in composition explained by climate, among‐site distance, human disturbance and other stream factors. 3. Montane stream assemblages showed high turnover in response to climatic variation. Turnover in coastal‐fringe streams was least affected by climate, but strongly correlated with distance and stream variables. Significant shifts in assemblage composition occurred between habitats within catchments and across catchment boundaries. 4. Montane stream assemblages are most vulnerable to climate change because their distribution is most responsive to climatic factors, and elevated sites are isolated from one another, reducing the scope for altitudinal migration. Dispersal limitations in coastal‐fringe assemblages will also increase their vulnerability to habitat loss from sea‐level rise. For all stream classes, the separation of many neighbouring catchment assemblages, owing to either limited dispersal or the lack of suitable habitat, is likely to constrain adaptive range shifts. This would lead to an overall reduction in beta diversity among reaches and subsequently to a reduction in landscape‐level gamma diversity.     

Effects of coupled natural and anthropogenic factors on the community structure of diadromous fish and shrimp species in tropical island streams

1. Overlapping river and road networks provide a framework for studying the complex interactions between natural and human systems, with river‐road intersections as focal areas of study. Roads can alter the morphology of stream channels, pose barriers to freshwater fauna, provide easy access to streams for humans and non‐native species and accelerate the expansion of urban development. 2. We determined what variables control the structure of diadromous fish and shrimp communities and assessed whether particular road crossings altered community structure in north‐eastern Puerto Rico. We identified 24 sites that represented a range of river and road sizes across two catchments that drain El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico. 3. The location of natural barriers and the size of stream pools were the most important variables for predicting six of fifteen fish and shrimp distributions. Predatory fishes were predicted to be limited to areas in the river network below large, steep waterfalls, whereas adult shrimp Atya lanipes (Atyidae) were predicted to be present above these waterfalls. The fish Awaous banana was predicted to be present in pools >11.6 m wide, whereas the shrimp Xiphocaris elongata was predicted to be present in pools <10.4 m wide. The distributions of nine species were predicted poorly, but three of these species were common and three were rare. 4. Although urban and agricultural land covers were among the top three predictors of five species distributions, they were probably good predictors because they were correlated with the natural gradient. Further study is necessary to disentangle natural and anthropogenic gradients. 5. Road crossings, 10 of which were culverts, were not dispersal barriers for fishes or shrimps. On average, species were present both upstream and downstream from road crossings at 68% of sites where they occurred. Absences upstream or downstream from road crossings occurred at 16% of sites each and likely resulted from a failure to detect species. 6. Several existing features of these catchments and taxa may aid in fish and shrimp conservation. The headwaters are protected by management practices of El Yunque National Forest, connectivity within the river network has been maintained, and the diadromous life history of these organisms makes them resilient to pulsed disturbances.     

Constraints on recovery: using molecular methods to study connectivity of aquatic biota in rivers and streams

1. The ‘Field of Dreams Hypothesis’ states ‘if we build it, they will come’, referring to the assumption that if habitats are restored, species will recolonise them. However, the ability of a species to recolonise a restored site will depend not only on the appropriate habitat being present, but also on the ability to get there. This is likely to depend on both the species’ dispersal behaviour and the position of a site in the landscape. 2. Animals with good potential for dispersal are more likely to be able to disperse to newly restored sites. Similarly, sites in lowland streams with limited altitudinal differences between sites may be easier to reach than upstream sites. This is because upstream sites are connected to one another via lowland streams that have different characteristics and therefore may be difficult for animals to traverse. 3. In this paper, genetic data from a range of freshwater species that have been analysed in my laboratory are used to assess the importance of life cycle and position in the landscape (i.e. upland versus lowland streams) on connectivity patterns (and thus recolonisation potential) among populations. 4. In general, contemporary dispersal across catchment boundaries is negligible, except for aquatic insects with an adult flight stage. Dispersal among streams within catchments appears to be more limited than was predicted from knowledge on life histories, except for fish in lowland rivers and streams. 5. As predicted, dispersal of fish, crustaceans and molluscs among streams within catchments is significantly greater in lowland rivers than in upland streams. 6. Overall, these analyses suggest that, with the exception of most insects, and fishes in lowland rivers, natural recolonisation of restored sites is only likely from sites within the same stream. If a species has disappeared from the whole stream, then restoration of habitat alone may not be sufficient for its re‐establishment.     

Do stream fish track climate change? Assessing distribution shifts in recent decades

Understanding the ability of species to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change is crucial for conservation biologists and resources managers. Although freshwater ecosystems include some of the most imperilled fauna worldwide, such range shifts have been poorly documented in streams and rivers and have never been compared to the current velocity of climate change. Based on national monitoring data, we examined the distributional changes of 32 stream fish species in France and quantified potential time lags in species responses, providing a unique opportunity to analyze range shifts over recent decades of warming in freshwater environments. A multi‐facetted approach, based on several range measures along spatial gradients, allowed us to quantify range shifts of numerous species across the whole hydrographic network between an initial period (1980–1992) and a contemporary one (2003–2009), and to contrast them to the rates of isotherm shift in elevation and stream distance. Our results highlight systematic species shifts towards higher elevation and upstream, with mean shifts in range centre of 13.7 m decade^?1 and 0.6 km decade^?1, respectively. Fish species displayed dispersal‐driven expansions along the altitudinal gradient at their upper range limit (61.5 m decade^?1), while substantial range contractions at the lower limit (6.3 km decade^?1) were documented for most species along the upstream–downstream gradient. Despite being consistent with the geographic variation in climate change velocities, these patterns reveal that the majority of stream fish have not shifted at a pace sufficient to track changing climate, in particular at their range centre where range shifts lag far behind expectation. Our study provides evidence that stream fish are currently responding to recent climate warming at a greater rate than many terrestrial organisms, although not as much as needed to cope with future climate modifications.     

Success and failure in a lotic crayfish invasion: the roles of hydrologic variability and habitat alteration

1. This paper examines the distribution, habitat relationships, and potential for spread of non‐native signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) in streams of the Truckee River catchment, California, U.S.A. Crayfish associations with natural features and with impoundments and flow alteration were examined in a survey of 33 streams. Abundance changes were followed over 5 years, which included some of the highest and lowest flows on record, in three streams, two unregulated and one regulated. Movement of marked crayfish was studied in one 0.5 km stream reach just upstream from a reservoir. 2. Signal crayfish were most abundant in low‐gradient streams and were positively associated with proximity to reservoirs (both upstream and downstream). Crayfish were more likely to be found in regulated than unregulated sites, and did not occur in sites upstream of barriers, such as culverts, that separated them from reservoirs or lakes. 3. Crayfish declined in abundance in years following particularly intense and prolonged wet‐season spates, leading to a negative association between crayfish abundance and both peak discharge and duration of bankfull flows. 4. Crayfish moved distances of up to 277 m, and at rates of up to 120 m day^?1, suggesting significant dispersal ability. Larger crayfish moved greater distances and were more likely to move downstream. Female crayfish showed a pattern of upstream movement in early summer and downstream movement late in the summer, opposite the pattern found in two other studies. 5. These results suggest that natural or artificial gradient barriers and, in regulated systems, management of flow regimes to include bankfull or greater flows may help to control invasive crayfish in streams.     

Wetlands as barriers: effects of vegetated waterways on downstream dispersal of zebra mussels

1. Stream flow is a major vector for zebra mussel spread among inland lakes. Veligers have been found tens to hundreds of km from upstream source lakes in unvegetated stream and river systems. It has been suggested, however, that the downstream transport of zebra mussels is restricted by wetland ecosystems. We hypothesized that vegetated waterways, (i.e. wetland streams) would hinder the downstream dispersal of zebra mussels in connected inland lake systems. 2. Veliger abundance, recruitment and adult mussels were surveyed in four lake‐wetland systems in southeastern Michigan, U.S.A. from May to August 2006. Sampling was conducted downstream of the lakes invaded by zebra mussels, beginning at the upstream edge of aquatic vegetation and continuing downstream through the wetland streams. 3. Veliger abundance decreased rapidly in vegetated waterways compared to previously reported rates of decrease in non‐vegetated streams. Veligers were rarely found more than 1 km downstream from where vegetation began. Newly recruited individuals and adults were extremely rare beyond open water in the wetland systems. 4. Densely vegetated aquatic ecosystems limit the dispersal of zebra mussels downstream from invaded sources. Natural, remediated and constructed wetlands may therefore serve as a protective barrier to help prevent the spread of zebra mussels and other aquatic invasive species to other lakes and ecosystems.     

Variation in local abundance and species richness of stream fishes in relation to dispersal barriers: implications for management and conservation

1. Barriers to immigration, all else being equal, should in principle depress local abundance and reduce local species richness. These issues are particularly relevant to stream‐dwelling species when improperly designed road crossings act as barriers to migration with potential impacts on the viability of upstream populations. However, because abundance and richness are highly spatially and temporally heterogeneous and the relative importance of immigration on demography is uncertain, population‐ and community‐level effects can be difficult to detect. 2. In this study, we tested the effects of potential barriers to upstream movements on the local abundance and species richness of a diverse assemblage of resident stream fishes in the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia, U.S.A. Fishes were sampled using simple standard techniques above‐ and below road crossings that were either likely or unlikely to be barriers to upstream fish movements (based on physical dimensions of the crossing). We predicted that abundance of resident fishes would be lower in the upstream sections of streams with predicted impassable barriers, that the strength of the effect would vary among species and that variable effects on abundance would translate into lower species richness. 3. Supporting these predictions, the statistical model that best accounted for variation in abundance and species richness included a significant interaction between location (upstream or downstream of crossing) and type (passable or impassable crossing). Stream sections located above predicated impassable culverts had fewer than half the number of species and less than half the total fish abundance, while stream sections above and below passable culverts had essentially equivalent richness and abundance. 4. Our results are consistent with the importance of immigration and population connectivity to local abundance and species richness of stream fishes. In turn, these results suggest that when measured at appropriate scales (multiple streams within catchments), with simple protocols amenable to use by management agencies, differences in local abundance and species richness may serve as indicators of the extent to which road crossings are barriers to fish movement and help determine whether road‐crossing improvements have restored connectivity to stream fish populations and communities.     

Landscape resistance mediates native fish species distribution shifts and vulnerability to climate change in riverscapes

A broader understanding of how landscape resistance influences climate change vulnerability for many species is needed, as is an understanding of how barriers to dispersal may impact vulnerability. Freshwater biodiversity is at particular risk, but previous studies have focused on popular cold‐water fishes (e.g., salmon, trout, and char) with relatively large body sizes and mobility. Those fishes may be able to track habitat change more adeptly than less mobile species. Smaller, less mobile fishes are rarely represented in studies demonstrating effects of climate change, but depending on their thermal tolerance, they may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. By revisiting 280 sites over a 20 year interval throughout a warming riverscape, we described changes in occupancy (i.e., site extirpation and colonization probabilities) and assessed the environmental conditions associated with those changes for four fishes spanning a range of body sizes, thermal and habitat preferences. Two larger‐bodied trout species exhibited small changes in site occupancy, with bull trout experiencing a 9.2% (95% CI = 8.3%–10.1%) reduction, mostly in warmer stream reaches, and westslope cutthroat trout experiencing a nonsignificant 1% increase. The small‐bodied cool water slimy sculpin was originally distributed broadly throughout the network and experienced a 48.0% (95% CI = 42.0%–54.0%) reduction in site occupancy with declines common in warmer stream reaches and areas subject to wildfire disturbances. The small‐bodied comparatively warmer water longnose dace primarily occupied larger streams and increased its occurrence in the lower portions of connected tributaries during the study period. Distribution shifts for sculpin and dace were significantly constrained by barriers, which included anthropogenic water diversions, natural step‐pools and cascades in steeper upstream reaches. Our results suggest that aquatic communities exhibit a range of responses to climate change, and that improving passage and fluvial connectivity will be important climate adaptation tactics for conserving aquatic biodiversity.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.     

Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions of several common and rare freshwater fishes in Canada

Climate change will ultimately affect the supply and quality of freshwater lakes and rivers throughout the world. This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater fish distributions in Canada. Climate normals data (means from 1961 to 1990) from Environment Canada were used to map current climate found throughout the tertiary watersheds of Canada. Logistic regressions based on these climate data were used to develop predictive presence‐absence equations for (a) common commercially and recreationally important species and (b) an Arctic freshwater species and a freshwater fish species of conservation significance listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife (COSEWIC). The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model 2(IS92a) provided forecasts of Canada's climate in 2020 and 2050. The data from this scenario and the logistic regressions provided a ready framework for predicting the potential distributions of the fishes. Physical and ecological barriers would have to be overcome for the distribution of these species to actually change in response to climate change. Generally, coldwater species may be extirpated from much of their present range while cool and warm‐water species may expand northward. Species that are limited to the most southern regions of the country may expand northwards. A conceptual framework for assessing potential climate change impacts on fishes and the variety of management strategies required to deal with these impacts are discussed. Our forecasts demonstrate the need for climate change assessments in species at risk as well as for common species.     

Going against the flow: a case for upstream dispersal and detection of uncommon dispersal events

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Spatial population genetic structure reveals strong natal site fidelity in Echinocladius martini (Diptera: Chironomidae) in northeast Queensland,Australia

1. A diverse array of patterns has been reported regarding the spatial extent of population genetic structure and effective dispersal in freshwater macroinvertebrates. In river systems, the movements of many taxa can be restricted to varying degrees by the natural stream channel hierarchy. 2. In this study, we sampled populations of the non‐biting freshwater midge Echinocladius martini in the Paluma bioregion of tropical northeast Queensland to investigate fine scale patterns of within‐ and among‐stream dispersal and gene flow within a purported historical refuge. We amplified a 639‐bp fragment of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and analysed genetic structure using pairwise Φ_ST, hierarchical amova , Mantel tests and a parsimony network. Genetic variation was partitioned among stream sections, using Streamtree , to investigate the effect of potential instream dispersal barriers. 3. The data revealed strong natal site fidelity and significant differentiation among neighbouring, geographically proximate streams. We found evidence for only episodic adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, our data suggested that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to within a stream channel. 4. This may arise from a combination of the high density of riparian vegetation physically restricting dispersal and from the joint effects of habitat stability and large population sizes. Together these latter may make it more likely that upstream populations will persist, even in the absence of regular compensatory upstream flight, and will thus reduce the adaptive value of dispersal among streams. Taken together, these data suggest that dispersal of E. martini is highly restricted, to the scale of only a few kilometres, and hence occurs predominantly within the natal stream.     

Spatial autocorrelation and dispersal limitation in freshwater organisms

Dispersal can limit the ranges of species and the diversity of communities. Despite its importance, little is known about its role in freshwater habitats and its relation to habitat type (lentic vs. lotic), especially for organisms with cryptic dispersal methods such as plankton. Poor dispersers are expected to show more clumped distributions or greater spatial autocorrelation (SA) in community composition than good dispersers. We examined patterns of SA across freshwater taxa with different dispersal modes (active vs. passive) and their association with habitat type (lake vs. stream) using 18 spatially explicit community composition data sets. We found significant relationships between SA and body size among taxa in lake habitats, but not in streams. However, the increase in SA with body size in lakes was driven entirely by fishes—organisms ranging in size from diatoms to macro-invertebrates showed equivalent levels of SA. These results support the idea that large organisms are less effective dispersers in aquatic environments, resulting in greater SA in community structure over broad scales. Streams may be effectively more connected than lakes as patterns of SA and body size were weaker in lotic habitats. Our data suggest that the critical threshold where greater body size increases dispersal limitation seems to come at the juncture between invertebrates and vertebrates rather than that between unicellular and multicellular organisms as has been previously suggested. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Drought survival strategies,dispersal potential and persistence of invertebrate species in an intermittent stream landscape

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Stable isotopes identify dispersal patterns of stonefly populations living along stream corridors

1. Populations in different locations can exchange individuals depending on the distribution and connectivity of suitable habitat, and the dispersal capabilities and behaviour of the organisms. We used an isotopic tracer, ¹⁵N, to label stoneflies (Leuctra ferruginea) to determine the extent of adult flight along stream corridors and between streams where their larvae live. 2. In four mass, mark‐capture experiments we added ¹⁵NH₄Cl continuously for several weeks to label specific regions of streams within the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, U.S.A. We collected adult stoneflies along the labelled streams (up to 1.5 km of stream length), on transects through the forest away from labelled sections (up to 500 m), and along an 800‐m reach of adjacent tributary that flows into a labelled stream. 3. Of 966 individual adult stoneflies collected and analysed for ¹⁵N, 20% were labelled. Most labelled stoneflies were captured along stream corridors and had flown upstream a mean distance of 211 m; the net movement of the population (upstream + downstream) estimated from the midpoint of the labelled sections was 126 m upstream. The furthest male and female travelled approximately 730 m and approximately 663 m upstream, respectively. We also captured labelled mature females along an unlabelled tributary and along a forest transect 500 m from the labelled stream, thus demonstrating cross‐watershed dispersal. 4. We conclude that the adjacent forest was not a barrier to dispersal between catchments, and adult dispersal linked stonefly populations among streams across a landscape within one generation. Our data on the extent of adult dispersal provide a basis for a conceptual model identifying the boundaries of these populations, whose larvae are restricted to stream channels, and whose females must return to streams to oviposit.     

Does dispersal capacity matter for freshwater biodiversity under climate change?

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Barriers to the recovery of aquatic insect communities in urban streams

1. Worldwide, increasing numbers of stream restoration projects are being initiated to rehabilitate waterways modified by urbanisation. However, many of these projects have limited success in restoring stream communities. Prompted by this, we investigated previously unrecognised barriers to aquatic insect colonisation in urban streams. 2. To investigate whether the availability of suitable substrata for oviposition limited the longitudinal distribution of caddisflies, large boulders were added to the upstream reaches of one stream. Prior to the addition, more egg masses were observed downstream and this longitudinal pattern persisted subsequently. 3. Malaise trapping revealed that adult caddisfly diversity and abundance was greater downstream than upstream. Furthermore, in a previous study the authors found larval caddisflies reflected the longitudinal distribution of adults. 4. The only obvious potential obstructions between reaches were roads beneath which the stream flowed through culverted crossings. Malaise trapping was used to examine the effect of road culverts and bridges on caddisfly dispersal. Numbers of caddisflies caught declined upstream and about 2.5 × more individuals were taken in traps immediately below than above five culverts. 4. Bridges, which had a more open structure than culverts, had no significant effect on the size of catches made above and below them. 5. Road culverts could act as partial barriers to upstream flight, with consequences for larval recruitment in urban streams. We recommend that urban planners and designers of restoration projects consider possible synergistic effects of poor oviposition habitat and barriers to aquatic insect dispersal, which may be critical for the colonisation of urban headwater streams and for the maintenance of stream insect populations.     

Coexistence in streams: do source–sink dynamics allow salamanders to persist with fish predators?

Theory suggests that source–sink dynamics can allow coexistence of intraguild predators and prey, but empirical evidence for this coexistence mechanism is limited. We used capture–mark–recapture, genetic methods, and stable isotopes to test whether source–sink dynamics promote coexistence between stream fishes, the intraguild predator, and stream salamanders (Dicamptodon aterrimus), the intraguild prey. Salamander populations from upstream reaches without fish were predicted to maintain or supplement sink populations in downstream reaches with fish. We found instead that downstream reaches with fish were not sinks even though fish consumed salamander larvae—apparent survival, recruitment, and population growth rate did not differ between upstream and downstream reaches. There was also no difference between upstream and downstream reaches in net emigration. We did find that D. aterrimus moved frequently along streams, but believe that this is a response to seasonal habitat changes rather than intraguild predation. Our study provides empirical evidence that local-scale mechanisms are more important than dispersal dynamics to coexistence of streams salamanders and fish. More broadly, it shows the value of empirical data on dispersal and gene flow for distinguishing between local and spatial mechanisms of coexistence.