Maintaining northern peatland ecosystems in a changing climate: effects of soil moisture,drainage and drain blocking on craneflies

The capacity of peatlands in the northern hemisphere to provide carbon storage, maintain water quality and support northern biodiversity is threatened by a combination of climate change and inappropriate land management. Historical drainage and increasing temperatures threaten the maintenance of the high water tables required for effective peatland functioning, and there is an urgent need to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. Here we use a large‐scale replicated experimental design to test the effects of artificial drainage and drain blocking upon soil moisture and cranefly (Diptera: Tipulidae) abundance. Craneflies constitute a key component of peatland biological communities; they are important herbivores and a major prey item for breeding birds. However, they are also susceptible to drought, so are at risk from future climate change. We found that cranefly abundance increased with soil moisture, in a wedge‐shaped relationship; high soil moisture is a necessary condition for high cranefly abundance. Blocking drains increased both soil moisture (by 0.06 m³ m^?3 in 2009 and 0.23 m³ m^?3 in 2010) and cranefly abundance (1.3‐fold in 2009, 4.5‐fold in 2010), but the strength and significance of the effects varied between years. The benefits of restoring ecosystem moisture levels are likely to be greatest during dry years and at dry sites. This study provides some of the first evidence that adaptation management can potentially reduce some of the negative effects of climate change on vulnerable peatland systems. Management to maintain or increase soil moisture in peatlands can therefore be expected to increase populations of craneflies and their avian predators (which are of conservation and economic interest), but also increase the resilience of the ecosystem to future warming and increasingly frequent droughts, and improve carbon storage and water quality.     

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current ‘cold’ nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10–33 °C) and future ‘hot’ nests (27.0 °C, 14–37 °C). ‘Hot’ incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot‐incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold‐incubated (11%, 58%) or wild‐born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78– 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52– 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18–44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest‐site choices. Over the period 1992–2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest‐site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.     

Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its range

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change will affect animal populations is vital for adaptive management. Many studies have described changes in the timing of biological events, which can produce phenological mismatch. Direct effects on prey abundance might also be important, but have rarely been studied. We examine the likely importance of variation in prey abundance in driving the demographics of a European golden plover ( Pluvialis apricaria ) population at its southern range margin. Previous studies have correlated plover productivity with the abundance of their adult cranefly (Tipulidae) prey, and modelled the phenology of both plover breeding and cranefly emergence in relation to temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that abundance of adult craneflies is correlated with August temperature in the previous year. Correspondingly, changes in the golden plover population are negatively correlated with August temperature 2 years earlier. Predictions of annual productivity, based on temperature-mediated reductions in prey abundance, closely match observed trends. Modelled variation in annual productivity for a future scenario of increasing August temperatures predicts a significant risk of extinction of the golden plover population over the next 100 years, depending upon the magnitude of warming. Direct effects of climate warming upon cranefly populations may therefore cause northward range contractions of golden plovers, as predicted by climate envelope modelling. Craneflies are an important food source for many northern and upland birds, and our results are likely to have wide relevance to these other species. Research into the potential for habitat management to improve the resilience of cranefly populations to high temperature should be an urgent priority.     

Spatial Variation in Lesser Prairie-Chicken Demography: A Sensitivity Analysis of Population Dynamics and Management Alternatives

ABSTRACT The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is currently considered a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act. To identify potential limiting factors for lesser prairie-chicken populations, we developed an age-based matrix model of lesser prairie-chicken population dynamics to compare the relative importance of components of reproduction and survival, and determine if various management alternatives stabilize or increase rates of population change. We based our analyses on an intensive 6-year population study from which demographic rates were estimated for each age class in Kansas. We used deterministic models and elasticity values to identify parameters predicted to have the greatest effect on the rate of population change (λ) at 2 study sites. Last, we used life-stage simulation analysis to simulate various management alternatives. Lambda was <1 for both populations (site 1: λ = 0.54, site 2: λ = 0.74). However, we found differences in sensitivity to nest success and chick survival between populations. The results of the simulated management scenarios complemented the lower-level elasticity analysis and indicated the relative importance of female survival during the breeding season compared with winter. If management practices are only capable of targeting a single demographic rate, changes to either nest success or chick survival had the greatest impact on λ at site 1 and 2, respectively. Management that simultaneously manipulated both nest success and chick survival was predicted to have a greater effect on λ than changes in survival of adult females. In practice, our demographic analyses indicate that effective management should be based on habitat conservation measures to increase components of fecundity.     

The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad‐hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate‐dependent‐metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.     

Managing multiple vital rates to maximize greater sage-grouse population growth

Despite decades of field research on greater sage-grouse, range-wide demographic data have yet to be synthesized into a sensitivity analysis to guide management actions. We reviewed range-wide demographic rates for greater sage-grouse from 1938 to 2011 and used data from 50 studies to parameterize a 2-stage, female-based population matrix model. We conducted life-stage simulation analyses to determine the proportion of variation in population growth rate (λ) accounted for by each vital rate, and we calculated analytical sensitivity, elasticity, and variance-stabilized sensitivity to identify the contribution of each vital rate to λ. As expected for an upland game bird, greater sage-grouse showed marked annual and geographic variation in several vital rates. Three rates were demonstrably important for population growth: female survival, chick survival, and nest success. Female survival and chick survival, in that order, had the most influence on λ per unit change in vital rates. However, nest success explained more of the variation in λ than did the survival rates. In lieu of quantitative data on specific mortality factors driving local populations, we recommend that management efforts for greater sage-grouse first focus on increasing female survival by restoring large, intact sagebrush-steppe landscapes, reducing persistent sources of human-caused mortality, and eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize species that prey on juvenile, yearling, and adult females. Our analysis also supports efforts to increase chick survival and nest success by eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize chick and nest predators, and by managing shrub, forb, and grass cover, height, and composition to meet local brood-rearing and nesting habitat guidelines. We caution that habitat management to increase chick survival and nest success should not reduce the cover or height of sagebrush below that required for female survival in other seasons (e.g., fall, winter). The success or failure of management actions for sage-grouse should be assessed by measuring changes in vital rates over long time periods to avoid confounding with natural, annual variation. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Metapopulation shift and survival of woodland birds under climate change: will species be able to track?

Climate change has been widely recognized as a key factor driving changes in species distributions. In this study we use a metapopulation model, with a window of suitable climate moving polewards, to explore population shifts and survival of woodland birds under different climate change scenarios and landscape configurations. Extinction vulnerability and expansion ability are predicted for the middle spotted woodpecker Dendrocopus medius and two alternative r‐K strategies under west European climate change scenarios of 1, 2 and 4°C temperature increase per century, corresponding to isotemperature velocities of ca 2, 4 and 8 km yr^?1. The simulated northward expansion of the bird's distribution is typically in the range of only 0–3 km yr^?1, in spite of 10–20 times larger maximum dispersal distances. This is too slow to track the climate change‐driven range contraction of 4 or 8 km yr^?1 in the south resulting in metapopulation extinction. Especially K‐selected (large‐bodied) species are vulnerable in the simulations. With a temperature increase of 4°C per century bird species go extinct within 104–178 yr. We present a simple approximation formula to predict the mean time to metapopulation extinction using 1) the rate of climate change, which determines the speed of range contraction in the south, 2) the size of the distribution range, which serves as a buffer against extinction, and 3) the northward expansion velocity, determined by species traits and landscape properties. Finally, our results indicate that the northward expansion rate is not constant. It will be initially lagged suggesting that recently observed expansion rates might be underestimations of future northward expansion rates.     

Breeding ground temperature rises,more than habitat change,are associated with spatially variable population trends in two species of migratory bird

Habitat loss and climate change are key drivers of global biodiversity declines but their relative importance has rarely been examined. We attempted to attribute spatially divergent population trends of two Afro-Palaearctic migrant warbler species, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus and Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, to changes in breeding grounds climate or habitat. We used bird counts from over 4000 sites across the UK between 1994 and 2017, monitored as part of the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey. We modelled Willow Warbler and Common Chiffchaff population size and growth in relation to habitat, climate and weather. We then used the abundance model coefficients and observed environmental changes to determine the extent to which spatially varying population trends in England and Scotland were consistent with attribution to climate and habitat changes. Both species' population size and growth correlated with habitat, climate and weather on their breeding grounds. Changes in habitat, in particular woodland expansion, could be linked to small population increases for both species in England and Scotland. Both species' populations correlated more strongly with climate than weather, and both had an optimum breeding season temperature: 11°C for Willow Warbler and around 13.5°C for Common Chiffchaff (with marginally different predictions from population size and growth models). Breeding ground temperature increases, therefore, had the potential to have caused some of the observed Willow Warbler declines in England (where the mean breeding season temperature was 12.7°C) and increases in Scotland (mean breeding season temperature was 10.2°C), and some of the differential rates of increase for Common Chiffchaff. However, much of the variation in species' population abundance and trends were not well predicted by our models and could be due to other factors, such as species interactions, habitat and climate change in their wintering grounds and on migration. This study provides evidence that the effect of climate change on a species may vary spatially and may switch from being beneficial to being detrimental if a temperature threshold is exceeded.     

Ecological mismatches are moderated by local conditions for two populations of a long‐distance migratory bird

Ecological mismatches between reproductive events and seasonal resource peaks are frequently proposed to be a key driver of population dynamics resulting from global climate change. Many local populations are experiencing reduced reproductive success as a consequence of mismatches, but few mismatches have led to species‐level population declines. To better understand this apparent paradox, we investigated the breeding phenology and chick survival of two disjunct populations of Hudsonian godwits Limosa haemastica breeding at Churchill, Manitoba and Beluga River, Alaska. Only one population experienced a mismatch: godwits bred nearly one week after the onset of the invertebrate peak at Churchill because of asynchronous climatic change occurring throughout their annual cycle. However, chicks were not uniformly affected by the mismatch — growth rates and survival of young chicks were not correlated with invertebrate abundance, but older chicks tended to suffer lower survival rates on days of low invertebrate abundance. Ecological mismatches thus resulted in a complex array of consequences, but nonetheless contributed to reductions in chick survival. In contrast, godwits at Beluga River hatched their chicks just before the invertebrate peak, such that the period of highest energetic need coincided with the period of highest invertebrate abundance. As a result, growth rates and survival of godwit chicks were unaffected by invertebrate abundance. Godwits at Beluga River were able to properly time their reproduction because of predictable rates of climatic change and strong selection imposed by high predation on late‐hatched chicks. Taken together, our results suggest that population‐specific, local‐scale selection pressures play a critical role in determining the degree and severity of ecological mismatches. The potential for global climate change to induce species‐level population declines may therefore be mediated by the spatial variation in the selection pressures acting across a species’ range.     

Extremes of heat,drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg‐laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range‐wide declines.     

Phenology and life history of the blowfly Calliphora vicina in stockfish production areas

Calliphora vicina Robineau‐Desvoidy (Diptera: Calliphoridae) causes yearly losses of 1–2 million Euros to the stockfish industry in Lofoten, Norway. To develop an efficient management program, knowledge of its life cycle and phenology in production areas is needed. Cohort studies in a simulated Lofoten climate showed that field abundance peaks of adults in early spring and midsummer can be explained by a cohort originating from stockfish and its subsequent generations. Laboratory simulations with normal, increased, and decreased Lofoten temperatures indicate that C. vicina overwinter as a mix of larvae, pupae, and adults, and a temperature change of ± 2 °C significantly influences reproductive timing, reproductive output, and female mortality. Flies originating from stockfish reproduced during the first summer when temperatures were increased 2 °C above normal. At lower temperatures, the reproductive investment was low or absent during the first summer and the adult flies entered the winter in a diapausing state. Most offspring produced during the first summer and autumn developed continuously without maternally induced diapause, pupated during the winter, and hatched in the early spring to co‐occur with their parent generation during stockfish production. Calliphora vicina showed flexibility in reproductive efforts and overwintering strategies. The high proportion of adults overwintering compared with the commonly used larval diapause strategy might be interpreted as an adaptation to exploit the stockfish resource. The majority of female C. vicina that cause damage to stockfish likely developed on fish dried the previous year, and a continuous year‐long trapping is recommended to decimate the population.     

Global climate change will increase the abundance of symbiotic nitrogen‐fixing trees in much of North America

Symbiotic nitrogen (N)‐fixing trees can drive N and carbon cycling and thus are critical components of future climate projections. Despite detailed understanding of how climate influences N‐fixation enzyme activity and physiology, comparatively little is known about how climate influences N‐fixing tree abundance. Here, we used forest inventory data from the USA and Mexico (>125,000 plots) along with climate data to address two questions: (1) How does the abundance distribution of N‐fixing trees (rhizobial, actinorhizal, and both types together) vary with mean annual temperature (MAT) and precipitation (MAP)? (2) How will changing climate shift the abundance distribution of N‐fixing trees? We found that rhizobial N‐fixing trees were nearly absent below 15°C MAT, but above 15°C MAT, they increased in abundance as temperature rose. We found no evidence for a hump‐shaped response to temperature throughout the range of our data. Rhizobial trees were more abundant in dry than in wet ecosystems. By contrast, actinorhizal trees peaked in abundance at 5–10°C MAT and were least abundant in areas with intermediate precipitation. Next, we used a climate‐envelope approach to project how N‐fixing tree relative abundance might change in the future. The climate‐envelope projection showed that rhizobial N‐fixing trees will likely become more abundant in many areas by 2080, particularly in the southern USA and western Mexico, due primarily to rising temperatures. Projections for actinorhizal N‐fixing trees were more nuanced due to their nonmonotonic dependence on temperature and precipitation. Overall, the dominant trend is that warming will increase N‐fixing tree abundance in much of the USA and Mexico, with large increases up to 40° North latitude. The quantitative link we provide between climate and N‐fixing tree abundance can help improve the representation of symbiotic N fixation in Earth System Models.     

Experimental manipulation of temperature reduce ectoparasites in nests of blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus

Several models predict changes in the distributions and incidences of diseases associated with climate change. However, studies that investigate how microclimatic changes may affect host–parasite relationships are scarce. Here, we experimentally increased the temperature in blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus nest boxes during their breeding season to determine its effects on the parasitic abundance (i.e. of nest‐dwelling ectoparasites, blood‐sucking flying insects and hemoparasites) in nests and the host condition of nestlings and adults. The temperature was increased using heat mats placed underneath the nest material, which resulted in an average temperature increase of 3ºC and a reduction in relative humidity of about six units. The abundance of mites Dermanyssus gallinoides and blowfly pupae Protocalliphora azurea was significantly reduced in heated nest boxes. Although not statistically significant, a lower prevalence of flea larvae Ceratophyllus gallinae was also found in heated nests. However, heat treatment did not affect hemoparasite infection of adult blue tits or the body condition of adult and nestling blue tits. In conclusion, heat treatment in blue tit nests reduced nest‐dwelling ectoparasites yet without any apparent benefit for the host.     

Climate change disrupts local adaptation and favours upslope migration

Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plant Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). In a large‐scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low‐elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.     

Nest box design for a changing climate: The value of improved insulation

Mean air temperatures and the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events such as heatwaves are increasing due to climate change. Nest boxes experience more variable and extreme temperatures than natural cavities, which may reduce survival and reproductive success of the species which utilize them, but little is known about the factors which drive nest box temperature profiles. We quantified the potential for retrofitted insulation on nest boxes to modify internal temperatures and to mimic the thermal characteristics of natural cavities more closely. We tested three types of materials with insulative or reflective properties which were easy to retrofit to nest boxes: 3‐cm‐thick polystyrene, pleated foil batts and reflective paint. We found that polystyrene and foil batts reduced mean nest box temperatures during the day by 0.31 ± 0.01°C and 0.17 ± 0.01°C, respectively (but up to 5.84°C and 4.02°C). The effects of all insulation types were dependent on the time of day, and only polystyrene had a significant effect at night, with a greater capacity to retain heat (mean 0.21 ± 0.01°C warmer). Contrary to expectations, reflective paint caused a small increase in temperature during the late afternoon. In our study, the temperature modulation provided by insulation was able to match or exceed that due to variation in nest location and surrounding vegetation canopy cover. Our findings show that polystyrene and foil batts may offer effective and tractable means to mitigate the effects of extreme temperatures in nest boxes and thereby help achieve temperature profiles more similar to natural cavities.     

Breeding season weather determines long‐tailed tit reproductive success through impacts on recruitment

Productivity is a key demographic trait that can be influenced by climate change, but there are substantial gaps in our understanding of the impact of weather on productivity and recruitment in birds. Weather is known to influence reproductive success in numerous species, although such effects have not been reported in all studies, perhaps because they are masked by high nest predation rates or buffered by density dependence. Here, we use a 19‐yr study of a population of individually marked long‐tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus to quantify the impacts of weather on productivity in the nest (from eggs to fledging) and subsequent recruitment, while taking nest predation rates and density dependence into account. We find that weather has negligible effects on clutch size, hatching success, brood size, probability of fledging and number of fledglings. Annual variation in nest predation rates is a strong predictor of productivity, but we find no evidence that the magnitude of nest predation is determined by weather. Recruitment was strongly associated with breeding season weather, even when taking density dependence effects into account. This contrasts with the conventional view that first year survival of temperate passerines is primarily determined by winter weather. Recruitment was reduced when March temperatures were high, perhaps caused by earlier peaks in caterpillar abundance and thus reduced food availability at the time of fledging. Recruitment increased following high May temperatures, perhaps due to an improved thermo‐regulatory environment for young fledglings. These opposing effects of warm March and May temperatures highlight the importance of considering asymmetrical rates of warming in different months when predicting climate change impacts.     

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large‐scale and long‐term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process‐based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26‐year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North‐East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical–biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.     

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land‐based climate‐change mitigation efforts

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land‐based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land‐based mitigation scenarios from two land‐use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ‐GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land‐use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land‐use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land‐use change. Differences between land‐use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land‐based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.     

Nonlinearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: Cod and haddock as an example

Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co‐occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33‐year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto‐Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state‐space threshold model, we demonstrated that long‐term climate variation, as expressed by changes of ST, affected species demography through different influences on density‐independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in ST, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (ST over ca. 4°C), the increase in the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long‐term climate change in the Arcto‐Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.     

Behavioural plasticity under a changing climate; how an experimental local climate affects the nest construction of the zebra finch Taeniopygia guttata

Successful reproduction in most avian species is dependent on the construction of a nest that provides protection and a suitable microclimate for the eggs and developing nestlings. Observational studies suggest that climatic variation may affect the structure of the nest, but to date there have been no attempts to experimentally determine the role that local climate plays in the construction of a suitable nest. Using a within‐individual counter balanced design we investigated how nest composition and construction differ in zebra finches breeding in ambient conditions of 18°C and 30°C. We found that at 18°C birds built nests that were over 20% heavier, and with significantly more thread and less grass than those built at 30°C. Our results highlight the degree of plasticity in nest building behaviour in relation to local ambient conditions. These results suggest that nest building behaviour is one route through which birds can respond to a changing climate and modify the microclimate of their nest in line with projected changes in ambient conditions.