Climate‐induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends

1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).     

Ecological differentiation,speciation, and rarity: How do they match in Tephroseris longifolia agg. (Asteraceae)?

Tephroseris longifolia agg. is a complex group of outcrossing perennials distributed throughout Central Europe. Recent morphological study revealed six morphotypes corresponding to five previously distinguished subspecies, together with Alpine and Pannonian morphotypes of T. longifolia subsp. longifolia. The delimited morphotypes differ in relative DNA content, geographical range, and rarity. We compared ecological niches of the six morphotypes in order to assess the impact of ecological differentiation on the speciation processes within the T. longifolia agg. Further, we examined whether morphotypes with small range are more ecologically specialized than their widespread relatives. The distribution area of the aggregate includes the Alps, Apennines, Carpathians, and the Pannonian Basin. Ecological variables linked to climate, topography, soil, and vegetation were gathered from 135 circular plots recorded in 35 localities. Related variables were grouped to describe the partial ecological niches: climatic, topographic, pedological, biotic, and coenotic (based either on vascular plants or on bryophytes), each of them visualized as an envelope in the two‐dimensional nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination space. Each partial ecological niche for a given morphotype was characterized by its position (location of the envelope centroid), breadth (surface of the envelope), and overlaps with envelopes of the other morphotypes. Mantel statistics based on Spearman correlation coefficients were used to quantify differentiation of morphotypes in ecological parameters represented by the partial ecological niches. The significant niche differentiation was confirmed for climatic, topographic, pedological, and vascular plant‐based coenotic niches. Ecological niche differentiation corresponded well to morphological and partially also to karyological differentiation. Narrowly distributed morphotypes occupied more specific habitats and had narrower ecological niches than their widespread relatives. Ecological differentiation could be considered an important driver in allopatric speciation within the T. longifolia agg. Our results demonstrate that quantification of ecological divergence is helpful in assessing evolutionary history of closely related taxa.     

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.     

ARE RANGE‐SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS CONSISTENT WITH SPECIES‐LEVEL HERITABILITY?

The concept of species-level heritability is widely contested. Because it is most likely to apply to emergent, species-level traits, one of the central discussions has focused on the potential heritability of geographic range size. However, a central argument against range-size heritability has been that it is not compatible with the observed shape of present-day species range-size distributions (SRDs), a claim that has never been tested. To assess this claim, we used forward simulation of range-size evolution in clades with varying degrees of range-size heritability, and compared the output of three different models to the range-size distribution of the South American avifauna. Although there were differences among the models, a moderate-to-high degree of range-size heritability consistently leads to SRDs that were similar to empirical data. These results suggest that range-size heritability can generate realistic SRDs, and may play an important role in shaping observed patterns of range sizes.