Comparative environmental assessment of conventional,electric, hybrid,and fuel cell powertrains based on LCA

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to compare the environmental impact differences of four types of vehicles on a life cycle assessment (LCA) perspective: a conventional gasoline vehicle, a pure electric vehicle, a plug-in hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle, and a plug-in hybrid fuel cell-battery vehicle. The novelty of the approach is to consider the different powertrains—electric and hybrids—as a repowering of the conventional powertrain. This way, the attention can be focused only on the powertrain differences and inefficiencies, with the added value of avoiding further assumptions, which could cause the analysis to be somehow rough.

Methods

Thus, we compared four powertrain scenarios maintaining the same vehicle chassis, and we compared the impacts from the powertrain production, vehicle use phase, and powertrain end of life only. Hence, special attention was paid to the inventory for powertrain construction and use phase. For the powertrain components, an accurate literature survey has been carried out for the life cycle inventory. For the use phase, several driving cycles, both standardized and real-world type, have been simulated in order to properly evaluate the effect on the fuel/electricity consumption. For the comparison, environmental indicators according to cumulative energy demand (CED) and ReCiPe Midpoint methods have been used. This way, an analysis of the environmental impact, based on a life cycle impact assessment approach, is provided, which allows thoroughly comparing the systems based on the different powertrains. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis on different energy mixes has been included, which represents also a way to take into account changes in electricity production.

Results and discussion

Results are presented according to life cycle impact assessment, which examines the mass and energy inventory input and output data for a product system to translate these data to better identify their possible environmental relevance and significance. In the case of the climate change (CC), fuel depletion (FD), and CED indicators, the lowest value corresponds to the plug-in hybrid gasoline-electric vehicle, followed by the plug-in hybrid fuel cell-battery vehicle, the pure electric, and finally the conventional gasoline vehicle. Substituting a conventional gasoline powertrain with the corresponding pure electric one offers the lowest reduction, but still of valuable amount. In our analysis, for the considered systems, the reduction of the value of CC is about 15%, the reduction of the value of CED is about 12%, and the reduction of FD value is about 28%. This analysis underlines the weakness of a tank-to-wheel comparison, according to which the pure electric powertrain, having a very high average efficiency, results in being the less consuming, followed by the hybrid gasoline-electric and fuel cell-battery vehicles, respectively, and then by the conventional vehicle. Instead, in terms of CED, the bad influence of the low average efficiency of the Italian electricity production is highlighted. The LCA approach also stresses out the importance of the battery inventory, which can make the environmental performance of the system based on the pure electric vehicle significantly worse than those based on the conventional vehicle. Of a great significance is the presence of a group of indicators—including human toxicity, eutrophication, and acidification—with lower values in the case of conventional gasoline vehicle than in the electric and hybrid ones, which further confirms that the potential of electrified vehicles strictly depends on an efficient production and recycling of the battery.

Conclusions

The analysis underlines an alarming list of environmental impact indicators, usually neglected, which are worsened by the powertrains electrification. Operating on the production processes, used materials and recycling phase can possibly mitigate these worsening effects. Also, the type of electricity is shown to strongly affect the results. Thus, performing specific evaluations for different countries is crucial and a sensitivity analysis, involving drastically different energy mixes, can allow for taking into account possible changes in the future electricity production.

     

Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles (EVs) coupled with low‐carbon electricity sources offer the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and exposure to tailpipe emissions from personal transportation. In considering these benefits, it is important to address concerns of problem‐shifting. In addition, while many studies have focused on the use phase in comparing transportation options, vehicle production is also significant when comparing conventional and EVs. We develop and provide a transparent life cycle inventory of conventional and electric vehicles and apply our inventory to assess conventional and EVs over a range of impact categories. We find that EVs powered by the present European electricity mix offer a 10% to 24% decrease in global warming potential (GWP) relative to conventional diesel or gasoline vehicles assuming lifetimes of 150,000 km. However, EVs exhibit the potential for significant increases in human toxicity, freshwater eco‐toxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and metal depletion impacts, largely emanating from the vehicle supply chain. Results are sensitive to assumptions regarding electricity source, use phase energy consumption, vehicle lifetime, and battery replacement schedules. Because production impacts are more significant for EVs than conventional vehicles, assuming a vehicle lifetime of 200,000 km exaggerates the GWP benefits of EVs to 27% to 29% relative to gasoline vehicles or 17% to 20% relative to diesel. An assumption of 100,000 km decreases the benefit of EVs to 9% to 14% with respect to gasoline vehicles and results in impacts indistinguishable from those of a diesel vehicle. Improving the environmental profile of EVs requires engagement around reducing vehicle production supply chain impacts and promoting clean electricity sources in decision making regarding electricity infrastructure.     

Competing uses of biomass for energy and chemicals: implications for long‐term global CO2 mitigation potential

Biomass is considered a low carbon source for various energy or chemical options. This paper assesses it's different possible uses, the competition between these uses, and the implications for long‐term global energy demand and energy system emissions. A scenario analysis is performed using the TIMER energy system model. Under baseline conditions, 170 EJ yr^?1 of secondary bioenergy is consumed in 2100 (approximately 18% of total secondary energy demand), used primarily in the transport, buildings and nonenergy (chemical production) sectors. This leads to a reduction of 9% of CO₂ emissions compared to a counterfactual scenario where no bioenergy is used. Bioenergy can contribute up to 40% reduction in emissions at carbon taxes greater than 500/tC. As higher CO₂ taxes are applied, bioenergy is increasingly diverted towards electricity generation. Results are more sensitive to assumptions about resource availability than technological parameters. To estimate the effectiveness of bioenergy in specific sectors, experiments are performed in which bioenergy is only allowed in one sector at a time. The results show that cross‐sectoral leakage and emissions from biomass conversion limit the total emission reduction possible in each sector. In terms of reducing emissions per unit of bioenergy use, we show that the use of bioelectricity is the most effective, especially when used with carbon capture and storage. However, this technology only penetrates at a high carbon price (>100/tC) and competition with transport fuels may limit its adoption.     

Hybrid Input‐Output Life Cycle Assessment of First‐ and Second‐Generation Ethanol Production Technologies in Brazil

A hybrid approach combining life cycle assessment and input‐output analysis was used to demonstrate the economic and environmental benefits of current and future improvements in agricultural and industrial technologies for ethanol production in Brazilian biorefineries. In this article, three main scenarios were evaluated: first‐generation ethanol production with the average current technology; the improved current technology; and the integration of improved first‐ and second‐generation ethanol production. For the improved first‐generation scenario, a US$1 million increase in ethanol demand can give rise to US$2.5 million of total economic activity in the Brazilian economy when direct and indirect purchases of inputs are considered. This value is slightly higher than the economic activity (US$1.8 million) for an energy equivalent amount of gasoline. The integration of first‐ and second‐generation technologies significantly reduces the total greenhouse gas emissions of ethanol production: 14.6 versus 86.4 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (g CO₂‐eq/MJ) for gasoline. Moreover, emissions of ethanol can be negative (–10.5 g CO₂‐eq/MJ) when the system boundary is expanded to account for surplus bioelectricity by displacement of natural gas thermal electricity generation considering electricity produced in first‐generation optimized biorefineries.     

Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Labeling for Plug‐In Hybrid Vehicles from a Life Cycle Perspective

Fuel economy has been an effective indicator of vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for conventional gasoline‐powered vehicles due to the strong relationship between fuel economy and vehicle life cycle emissions. However, fuel economy is not as accurate an indicator of vehicle GHG emissions for plug‐in hybrid (PHEVs) and pure battery electric vehicles (EVs). Current vehicle labeling efforts by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Transportation have been focused on providing energy and environmental information to consumers based on U.S. national average data. This article explores the effects of variations in regional grids and regional daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on the total vehicle life cycle energy and GHG emissions of electrified vehicles and compare these results with information reported on the label and on the EPA's fuel economy Web site. The model results suggest that only 25% of the life cycle emissions from a representative PHEV are reflected on current vehicle labeling. The results show great variation in total vehicle life cycle emissions due to regional grid differences, including an approximately 100 gram per mile life cycle GHG emissions difference between the lowest and highest electric grid regions and up to a 100% difference between the state‐specific emission values within the same electric grid regions. Unexpectedly, for two regional grids the life cycle GHG emissions were higher in electric mode than in gasoline mode. We recommend that labels include stronger language on their deficiencies and provide ranges for GHG emissions from vehicle charging in regional electricity grids to better inform consumers.     

Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Epitaxial Graphene Production at Different Manufacturing Scales and Maturity

Epitaxial growth is a potential production process for the new material graphene, where it is grown on silicon carbide (SiC) wafers at high temperatures. We provide first estimates of the life cycle cumulative energy demand, climate change, terrestrial acidification, and eco‐toxicity of this production. For this purpose, we applied prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) for three production scenarios (lab, pilot, and an industrial scenario), which reflect different production scales and technological maturity. The functional unit was one square centimeter of graphene. Results show that the three scenarios have similar impacts, which goes against previous studies that have suggested a decrease with larger production scale and technological maturity. The reason for this result is the dominance of electricity use in the SiC wafer production for all impacts (>99% in the worst case, >76% in the best case). Only when assuming thinner SiC wafers in the industrial scenario is there a reduction in impacts by around a factor of 10. A surface‐area–based comparison to the life cycle energy use of graphene produced by chemical vapor deposition showed that epitaxial graphene was considerably more energy intensive—approximately a factor of 1,000. We recommend producers of epitaxial graphene to investigate the feasibility of thinner SiC wafers and use electricity based on wind, solar, or hydropower. The main methodological recommendation from the study is to achieve a temporal robustness of LCA studies of emerging technologies, which includes the consideration of different background systems and differences in production scale and technological maturity.     

玉米秸秆基纤维素乙醇生命周期能耗与温室气体排放分析

生命周期评价是目前分析产品或工艺的环境负荷唯一标准化工具,利用其生命周期分析方法可以有效地研究纤维素乙醇生命周期能耗与温室气体排放问题。为了定量解释以玉米秸秆为原料的纤维素乙醇的节能和温室气体减排潜力,利用生命周期分析方法对以稀酸预处理、酶水解法生产的玉米秸秆基乙醇进行了生命周期能耗与温室气体排放分析,以汽车行驶1 km为功能单位。结果表明：与汽油相比,纤维素乙醇E100 (100％乙醇) 和E10 (乙醇和汽油体积比=1∶9) 生命周期化石能耗分别减少79.63％和6.25％,温室气体排放分别减少53.98％和6.69％;生物质阶段化石能耗占到总化石能耗68.3％,其中氮肥和柴油的生命周期能耗贡献最大,分别占到生物质阶段的45.78％和33.26％;工厂电力生产过程的生命周期温室气体排放最多,占净温室气体排放量的42.06％,提升技术减少排放是降低净排放的有效措施。     

Life Cycle Water Use of Ford Focus Gasoline and Ford Focus Electric Vehicles

Literature data for vehicle life cycle water consumption are limited and contradictory; there are no published estimates of vehicle life cycle water withdrawal. To place future discussions of sustainable mobility on a firmer technical basis, we report the results of a cradle‐to‐grave assessment of water withdrawal and water consumption for the gasoline internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) variants of the 2012 Ford Focus. U.S. average life cycle water withdrawal and consumption of 531 and 131 cubic meters (m³), respectively, for a lifetime driving distance of 160,000 miles are estimated for the Focus ICEV using E10 gasoline. Employing our upper bound of water use in oil refinery operations and corn and ethanol production increases the life cycle withdrawal and consumption to 1,570 and 761 m³, respectively. The U.S. average life cycle water withdrawal for the Focus BEV is 3,770 m³ (7 times that for the ICEV, reflecting the large volume of cooling water required during electricity generation), whereas the water consumption is 170 m³ (comparable to that for the ICEV). Vehicle use is the most significant phase of the life cycle with fuel production, accounting for 49% of water withdrawal and 82% of water consumption for the ICEV. For the BEV, fuel (electricity) production accounts for 92% of life cycle water withdrawal and 85% of consumption. The results highlight the importance of renewable and sustainable fuels and increased vehicle energy efficiency in providing sustainable mobility.     

Bioenergetics of an ecotechnical system of laying hen farms

Solar energy, fodder energy, microclimate optimization energy as well as technological process energy were defined as energy flows entering an egg production ecotechnical system. Nutrition biomass, chemical bond energy (eggs) and dung energy were estimated. Two criteria for energy consumption assessment were introduced: energy (kJ) consumed per unit of product and energy (kJ) consumed per unit of energy. Five fowl breeds were investigated. Restructuring in poultry farming was viewed with respect to the introduction of high performance breeds with low values of energy consumption. Elimination of systematic stress (abrupt transition of light intensity) reduced energy consumption in egg production. Methane fermentation parameters were optimized experimentally under laboratory conditions using a mathematical model. Dung biogas introduced an average of 25.75–29.52 MJ per bird into the observed system.     

Prospects for Cellulosic Biofuel Production in the Northeastern United States: A Scenario Analysis

Secure access to energy and food are two of the challenges facing the Northeast region of the United States. Traditional biofuel feedstocks, such as corn and oil seed, are able to satisfy energy requirements. However, they compete with food production for desirable land and water resources and, in any case, are not likely to exploit the region's current comparative advantages. This study investigates a potential solution to the energy security problem in the Northeast: biofuel from advanced feedstock in the form of net forest growth and woody wastes, of which the region has abundant endowments. The federal government has committed to requiring 79.5 billion liters (BL) of advanced biofuel production annually by 2022. We evaluate both the physical capacity for its production and its cost competitiveness using an input‐output model of consumption, production, and trade in the 13‐state region. The model minimizes resource use required to satisfy given consumer demand using alternative technological options and subject to resource constraints. We compile data from the technical literature quantifying state‐level biofuel feedstock endowments and the technological requirements for cellulosic ethanol production. We find that exploiting the region's endowment of cellulosic feedstock requires either making the price of biofuels competitive with gasoline through subsidies or restricting imports of gasoline. Based on this initial investigation, we conclude that the region can produce significant amounts of advanced biofuel, up to 20.28 BL of cellulosic ethanol per year, which could displace nearly 12.5% of the gasoline that is now devoted to motorized transport in the region.     

Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program

The biogas‐to‐electricity pathway under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) allows for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits to be generated when electricity produced from biogas is used in the transportation sector. Though approved as a general pathway, EPA has proposed multiple credit allocation methods to functionalize this pathway. This study describes and evaluates a potential credit allocation framework where vehicle manufacturers generate electricity RIN (E‐RIN) credits and use these credits to increase the sales of plug‐in electric vehicles (PEVs). Under this framework, manufacturers use part of the credit value to reimburse electricity generators, offsetting potential higher biogas electricity generation cost. The remaining credit value is passed on to consumers as an annual PEV rebate to stimulate PEV sales. An iterative simulation framework is developed to fulfill two tasks: (a) to estimate the annual rebate amounts and their upfront value to consumers based on various factors, such as vehicle mileage, E‐RIN equivalence value, and biogas capacity, and (b) to evaluate potential impacts of the E‐RIN program on electrification of the future light‐duty vehicles (LDVs) and energy use. The annual rebate amount varies by vehicle technology and could be up to $870/year for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and range between $230 and 825/year for plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) depending on the electric range. These per vehicle rebates decrease when demand for electricity exceeds biogas electricity availability. The effectiveness of the program as modeled here is subject to different factors, such as the E‐RIN equivalence value, biogas electricity generation cost, biogas electricity generation capacity, and consumers’ valuation of the E‐RIN rebate. Our modeling results indicate that an E‐RIN program has the potential to produce nearly $12 billion in E‐RIN credits annually and to significantly increase PEV annual sales by up to 2.3 million and the PEV population by about 19.7 million in 2030.     

Contribution of Urban Water Supply to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use in the water sector in China have not received the same attention as emissions from other sectors, but interest in this area is growing. This study uses 2011 data to investigate GHG emissions from electricity use for urban water supply in China. The objective is to measure the climate cobenefit of water conservation, compare China with other areas on a number of emissions indicators, and assist in development of policy that promotes low‐emission water supply. Per capita and per unit GHG emissions for water supplied to urban areas in China in 2011 were 24.5 kilograms carbon dioxide equivalent (kg CO₂‐eq) per capita per year and 0.213 kg CO₂‐eq per cubic meter, respectively. Comparison of provinces within China revealed that GHG emissions for urban water supply as a percentage of total province‐wide emissions from electricity use correlate directly with the rate of leakage and water loss within the water distribution system. This highlights controlling leakage as a possible means of reducing the contribution of urban water supply to GHG emissions. An inverse correlation was established between GHG emissions per unit water and average per capita daily water use, which implies that water demand tends to be higher when per unit emissions are lower. China's high emission factor for electricity generation inflates emissions for urban water supply. Shifting from emissions‐intensive electricity sources is crucial to reducing emissions in the water supply sector.     

Integrated Economic Equilibrium and Life Cycle Assessment Modeling for Policy‐based Consequential LCA

Consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) has emerged as a tool for estimating environmental impacts of changes in product systems that go beyond physical relationships accounted for in attributional LCA (ALCA). This study builds on recent efforts to use more complex economic models for policy‐based CLCA. A partial market equilibrium (PME) model, called the U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM), is combined with LCA to analyze an energy demand scenario in which wood use increases 400 million cubic meters in the United States for ethanol production. Several types of indirect economic and environmental impacts are identified and estimated using USFPM‐LCA. A key finding is that if wood use for biofuels increases to high levels and mill residue is used for biofuels and replaced by natural gas for heat and power in forest products mills, then the increased greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas could offset reductions obtained by substituting biofuels for gasoline. Such high levels of biofuel demand, however, appear to have relatively low environmental impacts across related forest product sectors.     

Life Cycle Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Automobiles Using Aluminum in China

Transportation is a major part of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Aluminum (Al) as a light metal can reduce vehicle weight, energy consumption, and pollutant emissions, but Al production is energy intensive. The main contents of this study are the following: (1) create the life cycle inventory of Al parts based on the energy background in China and (2) evaluate the energy savings and GHG reduction for the vehicle when steel parts are replaced by Al parts. Although there is a considerable reduction in energy consumption of per tonne Al in China owing to continuing development of process technology in recent years, energy consumption is higher than the world average level and European level. Over the vehicle's life cycle driving of 200,000 kilometers, the vehicle was found to avoid 1,447 to 1,590 liters of gasoline consumption when six typical steel parts were replaced by Al parts. Based on the current technology, the breakeven distance was calculated, resulting in a net energy benefit to use the lightweight Al parts compared with steel parts. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to show different energy savings by considering secondary weight reduction and different driving distance. The results indicate that weight reduction by using Al is quite effective to reduce the energy consumption and GHG of transportation.     

Application of “Streamlined” Material Input per Service Unit Concept to Small Residential Districts in China

This article reports a new application of material and energy accounting techniques to characterize and quantify the relationships between material input (and the related energy flows and emissions) and the services provided (i.e., material input per service unit [MIPS]) at the neighborhood level. The case study focuses on China's small residential district (SRD). It is concluded that linking a service (in this case, residential function) enabled by a given product (neighborhood development) to the amount of materials, energy, and emissions used or produced in creating that product offers a potential way to reduce the environmental impact of that service through more efficient use of materials, enlarged service scales, and improved buying decisions.     

Perspective of the Sugarcane Industry in Brazil

The sugarcane industry in Brazil is experiencing a rapid shift towards creating the grounds for a green and sustainable biorefinary industry. After 30 years of ProAlcool, the federal government program that boosted Brazil’s sugarcane industry by creating a mandate to blend ethanol with gasoline, flex fuel engines now dominate Brazil’s automobile industry. Currently, bioethanol replaces around 30% of the gasoline consumed in the country and its demand is projected to more that double in the next 10 years. On another front, the sugarcane genomics program created by FAPESP in the late 1990s paved the way for the establishment of innovative biotechnology startup companies that attracted the attention of the largest agro-biotechnology sector companies of the world. Almost all of these companies now have their sugarcane research centers surrounding the city of Campinas, São Paulo. In addition, innovative synthetic biology companies are developing technologies to produce diesel, jet fuel and other high value molecules using sugarcane juice as a carbon source. The sugarcane industry also teamed with petrochemical companies and already established operating plants to produce bioplastics. Innovations have also occurred in the field of co-generation of electricity from sugarcane bagasse. Currently sugarcane supplies 4% of the electricity needs of the country. Collectively, these innovations suggest that Brazil’s sugarcane industry could supply over 30% of the country energy needs by 2021 and a significant fraction of new bioproducts produced by its nascent biorefinary plants.     

Influence of Input‐Scrap Quality on the Environmental Impact of Secondary Steel Production

In electric arc furnaces (EAFs), different grades of steel scrap are combined to produce the targeted carbon steel quality. The goal of this study is to assess the influence of scrap quality on the recycling process and on the final product by investigating the effect of the scrap mix composition, and other inputs, for example, preheating energy, on the electricity demand of the melting process. A large industrial data set (empirical data set of ～20,000 individual heats recorded during 2.5 years at a Swiss EAF site) is analyzed using linear regression. The influence of scrap grades on electricity demand are found to correlate strongly with their respective quality; specific electricity demand is up to 45% higher for low‐quality scrap than for high‐quality scrap. Given that chemical compositions of scrap grades are highly variable and often unknown, average concentrations are determined using linear regression with scrap input as the predictors and the amounts of the investigated elements in liquid steel as the dependent variable. The lowest quality (highest copper and tin concentrations) and the highest electricity demand in the EAF are found for scrap recovered from bottom ashes of municipal solid waste incineration. Although even with low‐quality scrap input steel recycling is environmentally superior to primary steel production, the optimization potential in terms of energy efficiency and resource recovery, for example, through pretreatment, seems to be substantial.     

Assessing the “Short Mental Distance” in Eco‐Industrial Networks

Like many economic exchanges, industrial symbiosis (IS) is thought to be influenced by social relationships and shared norms among actors in a network. While many implicit references to social characteristics exist throughout the literature, there have been few explicit attempts to operationalize and measure the concepts. The “short mental distance,”“trust,”“openness,” and “communication” recorded among managers in Kalundborg, Denmark, set a precedent for examining and encouraging social interactions among key personnel in the dozens of eco‐industrial networks around the world. In this article we explore the relationships among various aspects of social embeddedness, social capital, and IS. We develop a conceptual framework and an approach using quantitative and qualitative methods to identify and measure these social characteristics, including social network structure, communication, and similarities in norms and conceptions of waste, and apply them in an industrial network in Nanjangud, South India. The findings suggest that there is a fairly high level of shared norms about dealing with waste—the “short mental distance”—in this network, but by‐product transactions are only weakly correlated with the structure and content of communication among managers. Replication of this approach can increase the understanding and comparability of the role of social characteristics in eco‐industrial activities around the world.     

Integrated environmental and economic assessment of current and future fuel cell vehicles

Purpose

Light-duty vehicles contribute considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions. Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) may play a key role in mitigating these emissions without facing the same limitations in range and refueling time as battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In this study, we assess the environmental impacts and costs of a polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell system (FCS) for use in light-duty FCVs and integrate these results into a comparative evaluation between FCVs, BEVs, and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).

Methods

We conduct a detailed life cycle assessment (LCA) and cost assessment for the current state of the technology and two future scenarios for technological development. We compile a detailed and consistent inventory for the FCS by systematically disassembling and integrating information found in cost studies. For the vehicle-level comparison, we use models to ensure that vehicle size, performance, and fuel consumption are unbiased between vehicle types and consistent with the scenarios for technological development.

Results and discussion

Our results show that FCVs can decrease life cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 50 % compared to gasoline ICEVs if hydrogen is produced from renewable electricity, thus exhibiting similar emission levels as BEVs that are charged with the same electricity mix. If hydrogen is produced by natural gas reforming, FCVs are found to offer no greenhouse gas reductions, along with higher impacts in several other environmental impact categories. A major contributor to these impacts is the FCS, in particular the platinum in the catalyst and the carbon fiber in the hydrogen tank. The large amount of carbon fiber used in the tank was also the reason why we found that FCVs may not become fully cost competitive with ICEVs or BEVs, even when substantial technological development and mass production of all components is assumed.

Conclusions

We conclude that FCVs only lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions than ICEVs if their fuel is sourced from renewable energy, as is the case with BEVs. FCVs are an attractive alternative to ICEVs in terms of vehicle performance criteria such as range and refueling time. However, the technological challenges associated with reducing other environmental impacts and costs of FCVs seem to be as large, if not larger, than those associated with the capacity and costs of batteries for BEVs—even when not taking into account the efforts required to build a hydrogen infrastructure network for road transportation.

     

A Geospatial Comparison of Distributed Solar Heat and Power in Europe and the US

The global trends for the rapid growth of distributed solar heat and power in the last decade will likely continue as the levelized cost of production for these technologies continues to decline. To be able to compare the economic potential of solar technologies one must first quantify the types and amount of solar resource that each technology can utilize; second, estimate the technological performance potential based on that resource; and third, compare the costs of each technology across regions. In this analysis, we have performed the first two steps in this process. We use physical and empirically validated models of a total of 8 representative solar system types: non-tracking photovoltaics, 2d-tracking photovoltaics, high concentration photovoltaics, flat-plate thermal, evacuated tube thermal, concentrating trough thermal, concentrating solar combined heat and power, and hybrid concentrating photovoltaic/thermal. These models are integrated into a simulation that uses typical meteorological year weather data to create a yearly time series of heat and electricity production for each system over 12,846 locations in Europe and 1,020 locations in the United States. Through this simulation, systems composed of various permutations of collector-types and technologies can be compared geospatially and temporally in terms of their typical production in each location. For example, we see that silicon solar cells show a significant advantage in yearly electricity production over thin-film cells in the colder climatic regions, but that advantage is lessened in regions that have high average irradiance. In general, the results lead to the conclusion that comparing solar technologies across technology classes simply on cost per peak watt, as is usually done, misses these often significant regional differences in annual performance. These results have implications for both solar power development and energy systems modeling of future pathways of the electricity system.