Codon-substitution models to detect adaptive evolution that account for heterogeneous selective pressures among site classes.

The nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S)) provides a sensitive measure of selective pressure at the protein level, with omega values <1, =1, and >1 indicating purifying selection, neutral evolution, and diversifying selection, respectively. Maximum likelihood models of codon substitution developed recently account for variable selective pressures among amino acid sites by employing a statistical distribution for the omega ratio among sites. Those models, called random-sites models, are suitable when we do not know a priori which sites are under what kind of selective pressure. Sometimes prior information (such as the tertiary structure of the protein) might be available to partition sites in the protein into different classes, which are expected to be under different selective pressures. It is then sensible to use such information in the model. In this paper, we implement maximum likelihood models for prepartitioned data sets, which account for the heterogeneity among site partitions by using different omega parameters for the partitions. The models, referred to as fixed-sites models, are also useful for combined analysis of multiple genes from the same set of species. We apply the models to data sets of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I alleles from human populations and of the abalone sperm lysin genes. Structural information is used to partition sites in MHC into two classes: those in the antigen recognition site (ARS) and those outside. Positive selection is detected in the ARS by the fixed-sites models. Similarly, sites in lysin are classified into the buried and solvent-exposed classes according to the tertiary structure, and positive selection was detected at the solvent-exposed sites. The random-sites models identified a number of sites under positive selection in each data set, confirming and elaborating the results of the fixed-sites models. The analysis demonstrates the utility of the fixed-sites models, as well as the power of previous random-sites models, which do not use the prior information to partition sites.     

Bayes empirical bayes inference of amino acid sites under positive selection

Codon-based substitution models have been widely used to identify amino acid sites under positive selection in comparative analysis of protein-coding DNA sequences. The nonsynonymous-synonymous substitution rate ratio (d(N)/d(S), denoted omega) is used as a measure of selective pressure at the protein level, with omega > 1 indicating positive selection. Statistical distributions are used to model the variation in omega among sites, allowing a subset of sites to have omega > 1 while the rest of the sequence may be under purifying selection with omega < 1. An empirical Bayes (EB) approach is then used to calculate posterior probabilities that a site comes from the site class with omega > 1. Current implementations, however, use the naive EB (NEB) approach and fail to account for sampling errors in maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters, such as the proportions and omega ratios for the site classes. In small data sets lacking information, this approach may lead to unreliable posterior probability calculations. In this paper, we develop a Bayes empirical Bayes (BEB) approach to the problem, which assigns a prior to the model parameters and integrates over their uncertainties. We compare the new and old methods on real and simulated data sets. The results suggest that in small data sets the new BEB method does not generate false positives as did the old NEB approach, while in large data sets it retains the good power of the NEB approach for inferring positively selected sites.     

Accuracy and power of bayes prediction of amino acid sites under positive selection

Bayes prediction quantifies uncertainty by assigning posterior probabilities. It was used to identify amino acids in a protein under recurrent diversifying selection indicated by higher nonsynonymous (d(N)) than synonymous (d(S)) substitution rates or by omega = d(N)/d(S) > 1. Parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood under a codon substitution model that assumed several classes of sites with different omega ratios. The Bayes theorem was used to calculate the posterior probabilities of each site falling into these site classes. Here, we evaluate the performance of Bayes prediction of amino acids under positive selection by computer simulation. We measured the accuracy by the proportion of predicted sites that were truly under selection and the power by the proportion of true positively selected sites that were predicted by the method. The accuracy was slightly better for longer sequences, whereas the power was largely unaffected by the increase in sequence length. Both accuracy and power were higher for medium or highly diverged sequences than for similar sequences. We found that accuracy and power were unacceptably low when data contained only a few highly similar sequences. However, sampling a large number of lineages improved the performance substantially. Even for very similar sequences, accuracy and power can be high if over 100 taxa are used in the analysis. We make the following recommendations: (1) prediction of positive selection sites is not feasible for a few closely related sequences; (2) using a large number of lineages is the best way to improve the accuracy and power of the prediction; and (3) multiple models of heterogeneous selective pressures among sites should be applied in real data analysis.     

Codon-substitution models for detecting molecular adaptation at individual sites along specific lineages

The nonsynonymous (amino acid-altering) to synonymous (silent) substitution rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S)) provides a measure of natural selection at the protein level, with omega = 1, >1, and <1, indicating neutral evolution, purifying selection, and positive selection, respectively. Previous studies that used this measure to detect positive selection have often taken an approach of pairwise comparison, estimating substitution rates by averaging over all sites in the protein. As most amino acids in a functional protein are under structural and functional constraints and adaptive evolution probably affects only a few sites at a few time points, this approach of averaging rates over sites and over time has little power. Previously, we developed codon-based substitution models that allow the omega ratio to vary either among lineages or among sites. In this paper we extend previous models to allow the omega ratio to vary both among sites and among lineages and implement the new models in the likelihood framework. These models may be useful for identifying positive selection along prespecified lineages that affects only a few sites in the protein. We apply those branch-site models as well as previous branch- and site-specific models to three data sets: the lysozyme genes from primates, the tumor suppressor BRCA1 genes from primates, and the phytochrome (PHY) gene family in angiosperms. Positive selection is detected in the lysozyme and BRCA genes by both the new and the old models. However, only the new models detected positive selection acting on lineages after gene duplication in the PHY gene family. Additional tests on several data sets suggest that the new models may be useful in detecting positive selection after gene duplication in gene family evolution.     

Identifying sites under positive selection with uncertain parameter estimates.

Codon-based substitution models are routinely used to measure selective pressures acting on protein-coding genes. To this effect, the nonsynonymous to synonymous rate ratio (dN/dS = omega) is estimated. The proportion of amino-acid sites potentially under positive selection, as indicated by omega > 1, is inferred by fitting a probability distribution where some sites are permitted to have omega > 1. These sites are then inferred by means of an empirical Bayes or by a Bayes empirical Bayes approach that, respectively, ignores or accounts for sampling errors in maximum-likelihood estimates of the distribution used to infer the proportion of sites with omega > 1. Here, we extend a previous full-Bayes approach to include models with high power and low false-positive rates when inferring sites under positive selection. We propose some heuristics to alleviate the computational burden, and show that (i) full Bayes can be superior to empirical Bayes when analyzing a small data set or small simulated data, (ii) full Bayes has only a small advantage over Bayes empirical Bayes with our small test data, and (iii) Bayesian methods appear relatively insensitive to mild misspecifications of the random process generating adaptive evolution in our simulations, but in practice can prove extremely sensitive to model specification. We suggest that the codon model used to detect amino acids under selection should be carefully selected, for instance using Akaike information criterion (AIC).     

Likelihood-based clustering (LiBaC) for codon models, a method for grouping sites according to similarities in the underlying process of evolution

Models of codon evolution are useful for investigating the strength and direction of natural selection via a parameter for the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S)). Different codon models are available to account for diversity of the evolutionary patterns among sites. Codon models that specify data partitions as fixed effects allow the most evolutionary diversity among sites but require that site partitions are a priori identifiable. Models that use a parametric distribution to express the variability in the omega ratio across site do not require a priori partitioning of sites, but they permit less among-site diversity in the evolutionary process. Simulation studies presented in this paper indicate that differences among sites in estimates of omega under an overly simplistic analytical model can reflect more than just natural selection pressure. We also find that the classic likelihood ratio tests for positive selection have a high false-positive rate in some situations. In this paper, we developed a new method for assigning codon sites into groups where each group has a different model, and the likelihood over all sites is maximized. The method, called likelihood-based clustering (LiBaC), can be viewed as a generalization of the family of model-based clustering approaches to models of codon evolution. We report the performance of several LiBaC-based methods, and selected alternative methods, over a wide variety of scenarios. We find that LiBaC, under an appropriate model, can provide reliable parameter estimates when the process of evolution is very heterogeneous among groups of sites. Certain types of proteins, such as transmembrane proteins, are expected to exhibit such heterogeneity. A survey of genes encoding transmembrane proteins suggests that overly simplistic models could be leading to false signal for positive selection among such genes. In these cases, LiBaC-based methods offer an important addition to a "toolbox" of methods thereby helping to uncover robust evidence for the action of positive selection.     

Estimating Treatment Effects of Longitudinal Designs using Regression Models on Propensity Scores

Summary We derive regression estimators that can compare longitudinal treatments using only the longitudinal propensity scores as regressors. These estimators, which assume knowledge of the variables used in the treatment assignment, are important for reducing the large dimension of covariates for two reasons. First, if the regression models on the longitudinal propensity scores are correct, then our estimators share advantages of correctly specified model‐based estimators, a benefit not shared by estimators based on weights alone. Second, if the models are incorrect, the misspecification can be more easily limited through model checking than with models based on the full covariates. Thus, our estimators can also be better when used in place of the regression on the full covariates. We use our methods to compare longitudinal treatments for type II diabetes mellitus.     

Inferring Selective History from Multilocus Frequency Data: Wright Meets the Hamiltonian

We describe a method to study characteristics of the dynamics of multilocus population genetic models without specifying the form of selection a priori. Our approach consists of specifying initial and final genotypic frequencies (either completely or partially) and then determining the minimum time to go from the initial condition to the final condition according to a continuous time genetic model, with arbitrary constraints on the strength and possibly the form of selection. In analyzing a two-locus, two-allele model with this approach, we show that--so long as r is not much larger than s--substantial linkage disequilibrium can be generated from an initial state of linkage equilibrium in a few hundred generations. We also show that unless recombination is much larger than selection, there is only weak dependence on r of the minimum time to reach a specified state. Thus, similar strengths of selection can lead to similar levels of disequilibrium over a fixed time and a range of small recombination rates. This implies that, within the level of a single gene, selection cannot in general be assumed to lead to any particular relationship between recombination rate and levels of disequilibrium. We indicate a number of other ways in which our method can be useful in asking theoretical questions and in interpreting data.     

Evolutionary model selection with a genetic algorithm: a case study using stem RNA

The choice of a probabilistic model to describe sequence evolution can and should be justified. Underfitting the data through the use of overly simplistic models may miss out on interesting phenomena and lead to incorrect inferences. Overfitting the data with models that are too complex may ascribe biological meaning to statistical artifacts and result in falsely significant findings. We describe a likelihood-based approach for evolutionary model selection. The procedure employs a genetic algorithm (GA) to quickly explore a combinatorially large set of all possible time-reversible Markov models with a fixed number of substitution rates. When applied to stem RNA data subject to well-understood evolutionary forces, the models found by the GA 1) capture the expected overall rate patterns a priori; 2) fit the data better than the best available models based on a priori assumptions, suggesting subtle substitution patterns not previously recognized; 3) cannot be rejected in favor of the general reversible model, implying that the evolution of stem RNA sequences can be explained well with only a few substitution rate parameters; and 4) perform well on simulated data, both in terms of goodness of fit and the ability to estimate evolutionary rates. We also investigate the utility of several distance measures for comparing and contrasting inferred evolutionary models. Using widely available small computer clusters, our approach allows, for the first time, to evaluate the performance of existing RNA evolutionary models by comparing them with a large pool of candidate models and to validate common modeling assumptions. In addition, the new method provides the foundation for rigorous selection and comparison of substitution models for other types of sequence data.     

Estimating number of clusters based on a general similarity matrix with application to microarray data

Many clustering methods require that the number of clusters believed present in a given data set be specified a priori, and a number of methods for estimating the number of clusters have been developed. However, the selection of the number of clusters is well recognized as a difficult and open problem and there is a need for methods which can shed light on specific aspects of the data. This paper adopts a model for clustering based on a specific structure for a similarity matrix. Publicly available gene expression data sets are analyzed to illustrate the method and the performance of our method is assessed by simulation.     

Gene Features Selection for Three-Class Disease Classification via Multiple Orthogonal Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis and S-Plot Using Microarray Data

Motivation

DNA microarray analysis is characterized by obtaining a large number of gene variables from a small number of observations. Cluster analysis is widely used to analyze DNA microarray data to make classification and diagnosis of disease. Because there are so many irrelevant and insignificant genes in a dataset, a feature selection approach must be employed in data analysis. The performance of cluster analysis of this high-throughput data depends on whether the feature selection approach chooses the most relevant genes associated with disease classes.

Results

Here we proposed a new method using multiple Orthogonal Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (mOPLS-DA) models and S-plots to select the most relevant genes to conduct three-class disease classification and prediction. We tested our method using Golub’s leukemia microarray data. For three classes with subtypes, we proposed hierarchical orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) models and S-plots to select features for two main classes and their subtypes. For three classes in parallel, we employed three OPLS-DA models and S-plots to choose marker genes for each class. The power of feature selection to classify and predict three-class disease was evaluated using cluster analysis. Further, the general performance of our method was tested using four public datasets and compared with those of four other feature selection methods. The results revealed that our method effectively selected the most relevant features for disease classification and prediction, and its performance was better than that of the other methods.     

Reliable gene signatures for microarray classification: assessment of stability and performance

MOTIVATION: Two important questions for the analysis of gene expression measurements from different sample classes are (1) how to classify samples and (2) how to identify meaningful gene signatures (ranked gene lists) exhibiting the differences between classes and sample subsets. Solutions to both questions have immediate biological and biomedical applications. To achieve optimal classification performance, a suitable combination of classifier and gene selection method needs to be specifically selected for a given dataset. The selected gene signatures can be unstable and the resulting classification accuracy unreliable, particularly when considering different subsets of samples. Both unstable gene signatures and overestimated classification accuracy can impair biological conclusions. METHODS: We address these two issues by repeatedly evaluating the classification performance of all models, i.e. pairwise combinations of various gene selection and classification methods, for random subsets of arrays (sampling). A model score is used to select the most appropriate model for the given dataset. Consensus gene signatures are constructed by extracting those genes frequently selected over many samplings. Sampling additionally permits measurement of the stability of the classification performance for each model, which serves as a measure of model reliability. RESULTS: We analyzed a large gene expression dataset with 78 measurements of four different cartilage sample classes. Classifiers trained on subsets of measurements frequently produce models with highly variable performance. Our approach provides reliable classification performance estimates via sampling. In addition to reliable classification performance, we determined stable consensus signatures (i.e. gene lists) for sample classes. Manual literature screening showed that these genes are highly relevant to our gene expression experiment with osteoarthritic cartilage. We compared our approach to others based on a publicly available dataset on breast cancer. AVAILABILITY: R package at http://www.bio.ifi.lmu.de/~davis/edaprakt     

Inferring speciation times under an episodic molecular clock

We extend our recently developed Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian estimation of species divergence times to allow variable evolutionary rates among lineages. The method can use heterogeneous data from multiple gene loci and accommodate multiple fossil calibrations. Uncertainties in fossil calibrations are described using flexible statistical distributions. The prior for divergence times for nodes lacking fossil calibrations is specified by use of a birth-death process with species sampling. The prior for lineage-specific substitution rates is specified using either a model with autocorrelated rates among adjacent lineages (based on a geometric Brownian motion model of rate drift) or a model with independent rates among lineages specified by a log-normal probability distribution. We develop an infinite-sites theory, which predicts that when the amount of sequence data approaches infinity, the width of the posterior credibility interval and the posterior mean of divergence times form a perfect linear relationship, with the slope indicating uncertainties in time estimates that cannot be reduced by sequence data alone. Simulations are used to study the influence of among-lineage rate variation and the number of loci sampled on the uncertainty of divergence time estimates. The analysis suggests that posterior time estimates typically involve considerable uncertainties even with an infinite amount of sequence data, and that the reliability and precision of fossil calibrations are critically important to divergence time estimation. We apply our new algorithms to two empirical data sets and compare the results with those obtained in previous Bayesian and likelihood analyses. The results demonstrate the utility of our new algorithms.     

Maximum-likelihood analysis of molecular adaptation in abalone sperm lysin reveals variable selective pressures among lineages and sites

Maximum-likelihood models of codon substitution were used to analyze sperm lysin genes of 25 abalone (HALIOTIS:) species to identify lineages and amino acid sites under diversifying selection. The models used the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S)) as an indicator of selective pressure and allowed the ratio to vary among lineages or sites. Likelihood ratio tests suggested significant variation in selective pressure among lineages. The variable selective pressure provided an explanation for the previous observation that the omega ratio is >1 in comparisons of closely related species and <1 in comparisons of distantly related species. Computer simulations demonstrated that saturation of nonsynonymous substitutions and constraint on lysin structure were unlikely to account for the observed pattern. Lineages linking closely related sympatric species appeared to be under diversifying selection, while lineages separating distantly related species from different geographic locations were associated with low evolutionary rates. The selective pressure indicated by the omega ratio was found to vary greatly among amino acid sites in lysin. Sites under potential diversifying selection were identified. Ancestral lysins were inferred to trace the route of evolution at individual sites and to provide lysin sequences for future laboratory studies.     

Positive Darwinian selection at the pantophysin (Pan I) locus in marine gadid fishes

Maximum-likelihood models of codon substitution were used to test for positive Darwinian selection at the vesicle protein pantophysin in two allelic lineages segregating in the Atlantic cod Gadus morhua and in 18 related species of marine gadid fishes. Positive selection was detected in the two intravesicular loops of the integral membrane protein but not in four membrane-spanning regions or the 3' cytoplasmic tail. The proportion of positively selected sites (24.9%) and the mean nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio (omega = d(N)/d(S) = 5.35) were both greater in the first intravesicular (IV1) domain compared with the second intravesicular (IV2) domain (11.0% positively selected sites with mean omega = 3.76). Likelihood ratio tests comparing models that assume identical omega ratios along all branches of the phylogeny to those that allow omega ratios to vary among lineages were not significant for either the IV1 or IV2 domains, indicating that the selective pressures favoring amino acid replacements have operated consistently in both regions during the diversification of the group. Positive selection was observed in the IV1 domain in both G. morhua allelic lineages, and, although three of the four codons that differ between alleles were targets of positive selection in the broader group, no similar polymorphisms were detected in other taxa. The two G. morhua Pan I alleles appeared to have evolved before the speciation event separating it from its sister taxon, Theragra chalcogramma, and on the basis of a standard mtDNA clock are estimated to be at least 2 Myr old. Although the function of pantophysin remains unknown, the strong signal of positive selection at specific sites in the IV1 and IV2 domains may help clarify its role in cellular trafficking pathways.     

Improving Power for Testing Genetic Association in Case–Control Studies by Reducing the Alternative Space

Summary .  To detect association between a genetic marker and a disease in case–control studies, the Cochran–Armitage trend test is typically used. The trend test is locally optimal when the genetic model is correctly specified. However, in practice, the underlying genetic model, and hence the optimal trend test, are usually unknown. In this case, Pearson's chi-squared test, the maximum of three trend test statistics (optimal for the recessive, additive, and dominant models), and the test based on genetic model selection (GMS) are useful. In this article, we first modify the existing GMS method so that it can be used when the risk allele is unknown. Then we propose a new approach by excluding a genetic model that is not supported by the data. Using either the model selection or exclusion, the alternative space is reduced conditional on the observed data, and hence the power to detect a true association can be increased. Simulation results are reported and the proposed methods are applied to the genetic markers identified from the genome-wide association studies conducted by the Wellcome Trust Case–Control Consortium. The results demonstrate that the genetic model exclusion approach usually performs better than existing methods under its worst situation across scientifically plausible genetic models we considered.     

Modeling coding-sequence evolution within the context of residue solvent accessibility

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Protein structure mediates site-specific patterns of sequence divergence. In particular, residues in the core of a protein (solvent-inaccessible residues) tend to be more evolutionarily conserved than residues on the surface (solvent-accessible residues). RESULTS: Here, we present a model of sequence evolution that explicitly accounts for the relative solvent accessibility of each residue in a protein. Our model is a variant of the Goldman-Yang 1994 (GY94) model in which all model parameters can be functions of the relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of a residue. We apply this model to a data set comprised of nearly 600 yeast genes, and find that an evolutionary-rate ratio omega that varies linearly with RSA provides a better model fit than an RSA-independent omega or an omega that is estimated separately in individual RSA bins. We further show that the branch length t and the transition--transverion ratio kappa also vary with RSA. The RSA-dependent GY94 model performs better than an RSA-dependent Muse-Gaut 1994 (MG94) model in which the synonymous and non-synonymous rates individually are linear functions of RSA. Finally, protein core size affects the slope of the linear relationship between omega and RSA, and gene expression level affects both the intercept and the slope. CONCLUSIONS: Structure-aware models of sequence evolution provide a significantly better fit than traditional models that neglect structure. The linear relationship between omega and RSA implies that genes are better characterized by their omega slope and intercept than by just their mean omega.     

Variable Selection for Semiparametric Mixed Models in Longitudinal Studies

Summary .  We propose a double-penalized likelihood approach for simultaneous model selection and estimation in semiparametric mixed models for longitudinal data. Two types of penalties are jointly imposed on the ordinary log-likelihood: the roughness penalty on the nonparametric baseline function and a nonconcave shrinkage penalty on linear coefficients to achieve model sparsity. Compared to existing estimation equation based approaches, our procedure provides valid inference for data with missing at random, and will be more efficient if the specified model is correct. Another advantage of the new procedure is its easy computation for both regression components and variance parameters. We show that the double-penalized problem can be conveniently reformulated into a linear mixed model framework, so that existing software can be directly used to implement our method. For the purpose of model inference, we derive both frequentist and Bayesian variance estimation for estimated parametric and nonparametric components. Simulation is used to evaluate and compare the performance of our method to the existing ones. We then apply the new method to a real data set from a lactation study.     

Gene selection for oligonucleotide array: an approach using PM probe level data

MOTIVATION: Analysis of oligonucleotide array data, especially to select genes of interest, is a highly challenging task because of the large volume of information and various experimental factors. Moreover, interaction effect (i.e. expression changes depend on probe effects) complicates the analysis because current methods often use an additive model to analyze data. We propose an approach to address these issues with the aim of producing a more reliable selection of differentially expressed genes. The approach uses the rank for normalization, employs the percentile-range to measure expression variation, and applies various filters to monitor expression changes. RESULTS: We compare our approach with MAS and Dchip models. A data set from an angiogenesis study is used for illustration. Results show that our approach performs better than other methods either in identification of the positive control gene or in PCR confirmatory tests. In addition, the invariant set of genes in our approach provides an efficient way for normalization.