Estimations of the joint distribution of failure time and failure type with dependent truncation

In biomedical studies involving survival data, the observation of failure times is sometimes accompanied by a variable which describes the type of failure event (Kalbeisch and Prentice, 2002). This paper considers two specific challenges which are encountered in the joint analysis of failure time and failure type. First, because the observation of failure times is subject to left truncation, the sampling bias extends to the failure type which is associated with the failure time. An analytical challenge is to deal with such sampling bias. Second, in case that the joint distribution of failure time and failure type is allowed to have a temporal trend, it is of interest to estimate the joint distribution of failure time and failure type nonparametrically. This paper develops statistical approaches to address these two analytical challenges on the basis of prevalent survival data. The proposed approaches are examined through simulation studies and illustrated by using a real data set.     

肺心病患者血清甲状腺激素的变化

本文分析30例慢性肺心病心衰并呼衰患者(心衰并呼衰组)及30例慢性肺心病心衰无呼衰患者(心衰无呼哀组)和慢性肺心病死亡组的血清甲状腺激素水平。结果表明心衰并呼衰组T_3、T_4水平均值显著低于心衰无呼衰组和健康组,心衰无呼衰组T_3水平均值显著低于健康组,肺心病死亡组T_3、T_4水平均值显著低于存活组,并发现血清T_3、T_4水平与动脉血氧分压(PaO_2)呈正相关。作者认为T_3明显降低是重症肺心病的损伤性结果,预示病情严重,预后差。而T_4明显下降,可能是死亡的信号之一。     

The effect of three-dimensional shape optimization on the probabilistic response of a cemented femoral hip prosthesis

Probabilistic analyses allow the effect of uncertainty in system parameters on predicted model performance measures to be determined. Furthermore, using performance functions to describe a failure event, the probability of failure can be quantified. The effect of three-dimensional prosthesis shape optimization on the probabilistic response and failure probability of a cemented hip prosthesis system is investigated. Random variables include joint and muscle loading, cortical and cancellous bone and PMMA bone cement elastic properties, and strength parameters describing failure of the bone cement and the prosthesis-bone cement interface. Several performance functions describing the bone cement and prosthesis-cement interface are used to compute the probability of failure. When evaluated deterministically, most performance functions indicated a safe design, with the exception of interface tensile failure. However, when evaluated probabilistically, finite probabilities of failure were computed, some significant. The most likely mode of failure before shape optimization was prosthesis-bone cement interface tensile failure with a predicted probability of failure of 97.9%. Deterministic prosthesis shape optimization reduced the probability of failure for all performance functions and reduced prosthesis-bone cement interface tensile failure by 31.7%. Probability sensitivity factors indicate that the uncertainty in the joint loading, cement strength, and implant-cement interface strength have the greatest effect on the computed probability of failure. Implant shape optimization results in a more robust implant design that is less sensitive to uncertainties in joint loading, which cannot be easily controlled, and more sensitive to cement and interface properties, which are easier to modify.     

Multiscale model predicts tissue-level failure from collagen fiber-level damage

Excessive tissue-level forces communicated to the microstructure and extracellular matrix of soft tissues can lead to damage and failure through poorly understood physical processes that are multiscale in nature. In this work, we propose a multiscale mechanical model for the failure of collagenous soft tissues that incorporates spatial heterogeneity in the microstructure and links the failure of discrete collagen fibers to the material response of the tissue. The model, which is based on experimental failure data derived from different collagen gel geometries, was able to predict the mechanical response and failure of type I collagen gels, and it demonstrated that a fiber-based rule (at the micrometer scale) for discrete failure can strongly shape the macroscale failure response of the gel (at the millimeter scale). The model may be a useful tool in predicting the macroscale failure conditions for soft tissues and engineered tissue analogs. In addition, the multiscale model provides a framework for the study of failure in complex fiber-based mechanical systems in general.     

Shear effects on failure of hollow trees

It is shown that bending stresses in a non-cracked hollow trunk can never explain failure. Consequently, stem breakage due to bending stress cannot be primary failure. It is shown by field studies and simple theoretical assessments that the initiation of a longitudinal shear crack is primarily responsible for failure. Due to cracking, the bending stresses increase and failure by bending happens as secondary failure. As a result, bending theory of a non-cracked closed circular pipe is inappropriate to describe failure of hollow trees. In the appendix is shown the reason for high shear stresses at the tree base and why the shear stresses increase more due to hollowness than to bending stresses.     

Differential regulation of cardiac ANP and BNP mRNA in different stages of experimental heart failure

Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) are cardiac hormones that are involved in water and electrolyte homeostasis in heart failure. Although both hormones exert almost identical biological actions, the differential regulation of cardiac ANP and BNP mRNA in compensated and overt heart failure is not known. To study the hypothesis that cardiac BNP is more specifically induced in overt heart failure, a large aortocaval shunt of 30 days duration was produced in rats and compared with compensated heart failure. Compensated heart failure was induced either by a small shunt of 30 days duration or by a large shunt of 3 days duration. Both heart failure models were characterized by increased cardiac weight, which was significantly higher in the large-shunt model, and central venous pressure. Left ventricular end-diastolic pressure was elevated only in the overt heart failure group (control: 5.7 +/- 0. 7; small shunt: 8.6 +/- 0.9; large shunt 3 days: 8.5 +/- 1.7; large shunt 30 days: 15.9 +/- 2.6 mmHg; P < 0.01). ANP and BNP plasma concentrations were elevated in both heart failure models. In compensated heart failure, ANP mRNA expression was induced in both ventricles. In contrast, ventricular BNP mRNA expression was not upregulated in any of the compensated heart failure models, whereas it increased in overt heart failure (left ventricle: 359 +/- 104% of control, P < 0.001; right ventricle: 237 +/- 33%, P < 0.01). A similar pattern of mRNA regulation was observed in the atria. These data indicate that, in contrast to ANP, cardiac BNP mRNA expression might be induced specifically in overt heart failure, pointing toward the possible role of BNP as a marker of the transition from compensated to overt heart failure.     

Ligamentous versus physeal failure in murine medial collateral ligament biomechanical testing

This study examines the age at which a femoral physeal failure ceased to occur in a mouse model of medial collateral ligament (MCL) testing. Biomechanical testing of the MCL with load to failure can result in physeal failure rather than MCL failure in skeletally immature animals. Failure mode depended significantly on age (p<0.05). Sixty percent of the knees tested at 4 months failed at the physis rather than at the ligament, whereas, only ten percent of the knees tested at 5 and 6 months failed at the physis. The mean ultimate force to failure for the specimens in which the failure occurred at the ligament was 8.1 N with a higher values for the right side versus the left (p<0.05). For the specimens in which the failure occurred at the physis, the mean ultimate force to failure was 11.2 N. We now consider that 5 month old mice are functionally skeletally mature and old enough to be tested biomechanically with few failures at the physis.     

Viscoelastic and failure properties of spine ligament collagen fascicles

The microstructural volume fractions, orientations, and interactions among components vary widely for different ligament types. If these variations are understood, however, it is conceivable to develop a general ligament model that is based on microstructural properties. This paper presents a part of a much larger effort needed to develop such a model. Viscoelastic and failure properties of porcine posterior longitudinal ligament (PLL) collagen fascicles were determined. A series of subfailure and failure tests were performed at fast and slow strain rates on isolated collagen fascicles from porcine lumbar spine PLLs. A finite strain quasi-linear viscoelastic model was used to fit the fascicle experimental data. There was a significant strain rate effect in fascicle failure strain (P < 0.05), but not in failure force or failure stress. The corresponding average fast-rate and slow-rate failure strains were 0.098 ± 0.062 and 0.209 ± 0.081. The average failure force for combined fast and slow rates was 2.25 ± 1.17 N. The viscoelastic and failure properties in this paper were used to develop a microstructural ligament failure model that will be published in a subsequent paper.     

On testing dependence between time to failure and cause of failure when causes of failure are missing

The hypothesis of independence between the failure time and the cause of failure is studied by using the conditional probabilities of failure due to a specific cause given that there is no failure up to certain fixed time. In practice, there are situations when the failure times are available for all units but the causes of failures might be missing for some units. We propose tests based on U-statistics to test for independence of the failure time and the cause of failure in the competing risks model when all the causes of failure cannot be observed. The asymptotic distribution is normal in each case. Simulation studies look at power comparisons for the proposed tests for two families of distributions. The one-sided and the two-sided tests based on Kendall type statistic perform exceedingly well in detecting departures from independence.     

The analysis of failure times in the presence of competing risks.

Distinct problems in the analysis of failure times with competing causes of failure include the estimation of treatment or exposure effects on specific failure types, the study of interrelations among failure types, and the estimation of failure rates for some causes given the removal of certain other failure types. The usual formation of these problems is in terms of conceptual or latent failure times for each failure type. This approach is criticized on the basis of unwarranted assumptions, lack of physical interpretation and identifiability problems. An alternative approach utilizing cause-specific hazard functions for observable quantities, including time-dependent covariates, is proposed. Cause-specific hazard functions are shown to be the basic estimable quantities in the competing risks framework. A method, involving the estimation of parameters that relate time-dependent risk indicators for some causes to cause-specific hazard functions for other causes, is proposed for the study of interrelations among failure types. Further, it is argued that the problem of estimation of failure rates under the removal of certain causes is not well posed until a mechanism for cause removal is specified. Following such a specification, one will sometimes be in a position to make sensible extrapolations from available data to situations involving cause removal. A clinical program in bone marrow transplantation for leukemia provides a setting for discussion and illustration of each of these ideas. Failure due to censoring in a survivorship study leads to further discussion.     

The role of anemia in congestive heart failure and chronic kidney insufficiency: the cardio renal anemia syndrome

Anemia is a major problem in patients with chronic kidney insufficiency. The development of recombinant human erythropoietin has enabled physicians to correct this anemia. Although anemia has not been considered to be a common or important contributor to congestive heart failure, anemia of any cause can lead to cardiac damage and eventually congestive heart failure. Our joint renal-cardiac heart failure team found that anemia was indeed very common in congestive heart failure and was associated with severe, medication-resistant cardiac failure. Correction of the anemia with erythropoietin and intravenous iron led to a marked improvement in patients' functional status and their cardiac function, and to a marked fall in the need for hospitalization and for high-dose diuretics; renal function usually improved or at least stabilized. Subsequent investigations by others have confirmed many of our observations. We call this interrelationship between congestive heart failure, chronic kidney insufficiency, and anemia the Cardio-Renal Anemia syndrome. Treatment of the anemia in congestive heart failure may prove vital in preventing progression of both the heart failure and the associated renal disease.     

Uncovering heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with type 2 diabetes in primary care: time for a change

Undetected heart failure appears to be an important health problem in patients with type 2 diabetes and aged ≥ 60 years. The prevalence of previously unknown heart failure in these patients is high, steeply rises with age, and is overall higher in women than in men. The majority of the patients with newly detected heart failure have a preserved ejection fraction. A diagnostic algorithm to detect or exclude heart failure in these patients with variables from the medical files combined with items from history taking and physical examination provides a good to excellent accuracy. Annual screening appears to be cost-effective. Both unrecognised heart failure with reduced and with preserved ejection fraction were associated with a clinically relevant lower health status in patients with type 2 diabetes. Also the prognosis of these patients was worse than of those without heart failure. Existing disease-management programs for type 2 diabetes pay insufficient attention to early detection of cardiovascular diseases, including heart failure. We conclude that more attention is needed for detection of heart failure in older patients with type 2 diabetes.     

Aortic banding in rat as a model to investigate malnutrition associated with heart failure

Heart failure is a severe pathology, which has displayed a dramatic increase in the occurrence of patients with chronic heart disease in developed countries, as a result of increases in the population's average age and in survival time. This pathology is associated with severe malnutrition, which worsens the prognosis. Although the cachexia associated with chronic heart failure is a well-known complication, there is no reference animal model of malnutrition related to heart failure. This study was designed to evaluate the nutritional status of rats in a model of loss of cardiac function obtained by ascending aortic banding. Cardiac overload led to the development of cardiac hypertrophy, which decompensates to heart failure, with increased brain natriuretic peptide levels. The rats displayed hepatic dysfunction and an associated renal hypotrophy and renal failure, evidenced by the alteration in renal function markers such as citrullinemia, creatininemia, and uremia. Malnutrition has been evidenced by the alteration of protein and amino acid metabolism. A muscular atrophy with decreased protein content and increased amino acid concentrations in both plasma and muscle was observed. These rats with heart failure displayed a multiorgan failure and malnutrition, which reflected the clinical situation of human chronic heart failure.     

Debate: Statins should be used in patients with heart failure

Treatment to prevent progression of heart failure has been targeted to reverse the consequences of heart failure and to a lesser extent the cause – the atherosclerotic plaque itself. Less than 50% of patients with heart failure are treated with lipid intervention. Heart failure (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional classes I and II) is associated with an increase in low-density lipoproteins (LDL) and triglycerides while high-density lipoproteins (HDL) is lowered. In NYHA class IV, cholesterol is reduced due to depressed production in the liver. Although lipoproteins, especially LDL and HDL, may have some protective effect in binding and neutralising endotoxins released from the intestine during terminal heart failure, observational studies in patients with heart failure strongly suggest that lipid modification with statins may reduce progression of heart failure as well as reducing heart failure mortality.     

老年缺血性心力衰竭的心脏DNA甲基化编码重编程与心肌细胞焦亡、铁死亡的关联

摘要 目的：探讨老年缺血性心力衰竭的心脏DNA甲基化编码重编程与心肌细胞焦亡、铁死亡的关联性。方法：2019年12月到2021月2月,选择在本院诊治的老年缺血性心力衰竭115例作为心衰组,同期选择在本院体检的非心血管疾病老年人群115例作为对照组。检测心脏DNA甲基化编码重编程、心肌细胞焦亡、铁死亡指标表达情况并进行相关性分析。结果：心衰组的心脏DNA甲基化编码重编程指标-miR-92a、miR-130a相对表达水平高于对照组（P<0.05）。心衰组的Caspase-1蛋白、Caspase-4蛋白相对表达水平高于对照组（P<0.05）。心衰组的铁调素含量高于对照组（P<0.05）。在两组230例入选者中,Spearsman相关分析显示：缺血性心力衰竭与miR-92a、miR-130a、半胱氨酸蛋白酶1（Caspase-1）、半胱氨酸蛋白酶4（Caspase-4）、铁调素存在正向相关性（P<0.05）。Logistic回归分析显示：miR-92a、miR-130a、Caspase-1、Caspase-4、铁调素为导致缺血性心力衰竭发生的重要因素（P<0.05）。结论：老年缺血性心力衰竭患者多伴随有心脏DNA甲基化编码重编程与心肌细胞焦亡、铁死亡,后三者与缺血性心力衰竭的发生存在关联性,也是导致缺血性心力衰竭发生的重要因素。     

Treatment options in end-stage heart failure: where to go from here?

Chronic heart failure is a major healthcare problem associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite significant progress in treatment strategies, the prognosis of heart failure patients remains poor. The golden standard treatment for heart failure is heart transplantation after failure of medical therapy, surgery and/or cardiac resynchronisation therapy. In order to improve patients' outcome and quality of life, new emerging treatment modalities are currently being investigated, including mechanical cardiac support devices, of which the left ventricular assist device is the most promising treatment option. Structured care for heart failure patients according to the most recent international heart failure guidelines may further contribute to optimal decision-making. This article will review the conventional and novel treatment modalities of heart failure.     

Adrenal GRK2 upregulation mediates sympathetic overdrive in heart failure

Cardiac overstimulation by the sympathetic nervous system (SNS) is a salient characteristic of heart failure, reflected by elevated circulating levels of catecholamines. The success of beta-adrenergic receptor (betaAR) antagonists in heart failure argues for SNS hyperactivity being pathogenic; however, sympatholytic agents targeting alpha2AR-mediated catecholamine inhibition have been unsuccessful. By investigating adrenal adrenergic receptor signaling in heart failure models, we found molecular mechanisms to explain the failure of sympatholytic agents and discovered a new strategy to lower SNS activity. During heart failure, there is substantial alpha2AR dysregulation in the adrenal gland, triggered by increased expression and activity of G protein-coupled receptor kinase 2 (GRK2). Adrenal gland-specific GRK2 inhibition reversed alpha2AR dysregulation in heart failure, resulting in lowered plasma catecholamine levels, improved cardiac betaAR signaling and function, and increased sympatholytic efficacy of a alpha2AR agonist. This is the first demonstration, to our knowledge, of a molecular mechanism for SNS hyperactivity in heart failure, and our study identifies adrenal GRK2 activity as a new sympatholytic target.     

Repeated cleavage failure does not establish centrosome amplification in untransformed human cells

We tested whether cleavage failure as a transient event establishes an incidence of centrosome amplification in cell populations. Five rounds of ～30% cytochalasin-induced cleavage failure in untransformed human cell cultures did not establish centrosome amplification in the short or long terms. The progeny of binucleate cells progressively dropped out of the cell cycle and expressed p53/p21, and none divided a fourth time. We also tested whether cleavage failure established centrosome amplification in transformed cell populations. Tetraploid HCT116 p53(-/-) cells eventually all failed cleavage repeatedly and ceased proliferating. HeLa cells all died or arrested within four cell cycles. Chinese hamster ovary cells proliferated after cleavage failure, but five rounds of induced cleavage failure produced a modest increase in the incidence of centrosome amplification in the short term, which did not rise with more cycles of cleavage failure. This incidence dropped to close to control values in the long term despite a 2-6% rate of spontaneous cleavage failure in the progeny of tetraploid cells.     

Familial Risks of Kidney Failure in Sweden: A Nationwide Family Study

Background

The value of family history as a risk factor for kidney failure has not been determined in a nationwide setting.

Aim

This nationwide family study aimed to determine familial risks for kidney failure in Sweden.

Methods

The Swedish multi-generation register on 0–78-year-old subjects were linked to the Swedish patient register and the Cause of death register for 1987–2010. Individuals diagnosed with acute kidney failure (n = 10063), chronic kidney failure (n = 18668), or unspecified kidney failure (n = 3731) were included. Kidney failure patients with cystic kidney disease, congenital kidney and urinary tract malformations, urolithiasis, and rare inherited kidney syndromes, and hyperoxaluria were excluded. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for individuals whose parents/siblings were diagnosed with kidney failure compared to those whose parents or siblings were not.

Results

The concordant (same disease) familial risks (sibling/parent history) were increased for chronic kidney failure SIR = 2.02 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.90–2.14) but not for acute kidney failure SIR = 1.08 (95% CI 0.94–1.22) and for unspecified kidney failure SIR = 1.25 (95% CI 0.94–1.63). However, the discordant (different disease) familial risk for acute kidney failure SIR = 1.19 (95% CI 1.06–1.32) and unspecified kidney failure SIR = 1.63 (95% CI 1.40–1.90) was significantly increased in individuals with a family history of chronic kidney failure. The familial risk for chronic kidney failure was similar for males SIR = 2.04 (95% CI 1.90–2.20) and females SIR = 1.97 (95% CI 1.78–2.17). Familial risks for chronic kidney failure were highest at age of 10–19 years SIR = 6.33 (95% CI 4.16–9.22).

Conclusions

The present study shows that family history is an important risk factor for chronic kidney failure but to a lower degree for acute kidney failure and unspecified kidney failure.