Responses of stoats and least weasels to fluctuating food abundances: is the low phase of the vole cycle due to mustelid predation?

Summary We studied responses of stoats and least weasels to fluctuating vole abundances during seven winters in western Finland. Density indices of mustelids were derived from snow-tracking, diet composition from scat samples, and vole abundances from snap-trapping. Predation rate was estimated by the ratio of voles to mustelids and by the vole kill rate by predators (density of predator x percentage of voles in the diet). We tested the following four predictions of the hypothesis that small mustelids cause the low phase of the microtine cycle. (1) The densities of predators should lag well behind the prey abundances, as time lags tend to have destabilizing effects. The densities of stoats fluctuated in accordance with the vole abundances, whereas the spring densities of least weasels tracked the vole abundances with a half-year lag and the autumn densities with a 1-year lag. (2) Predators should not shift to alternative prey with declining vole densities. The yearly proportion of Microtus voles (the staple prey) in the diet of stoats varied widely (range 16–82%) and was positively correlated with the winter abundance of these voles. In contrast, the same proportion in the food of least weasels was independent of the vole abundance. (3) The ratio of voles to small mustelids should be smallest in poor vole years and largest in good ones. This was also observed. (4) Vole densities from autumn to spring should decrease more in those winters when vole kill rates are high than when they are low. The data on least weasels agreed with this prediction. Our results from least weasels were consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis, but stoats behaved like semi-generalist predators. Accordingly, declines and lows in the microtine cycle may be due to least weasel predation, but other extrinsic factors may also contribute to crashes.     

Predator–vole interactions in northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986–2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator–prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.     

Population dynamics of microtine rodents: an experimental test of the predation hypothesis

One of the most popular hypotheses to explain the 3–5 year vole cycle in Fennoscandia is the predation hypothesis, which emphasises the role of specialist predators, especially small mustelids, in driving the microtine rodent cycle. I have tested this hypothesis in a field experiment with a focus on the interaction between the least weasel ( Mustela nivalis nivalis L.) and the field vole ( Microtus agrestis L.). The test involved a perturbation of the natural vole-weasel dynamics by increasing the numbers of predators. In natural cyclic dynamics, the numbers of weasels follow the numbers of voles with a time lag; the delay in the numerical response of the predators essentially leads to the cyclic dynamics. In this experiment, I attempted to eliminate the time lag in predators' numerical response by adding weasels into the system at a point when vole numbers are increasing but weasels are still scarce. The experiment was conducted in three experimental islands (each 5–10 km²) using adjacent comparable islands as controls. Results of the experiment did not provide strong evidence either for or against the hypothesis. Two of three experimental areas did not show a treatment effect, while one area showed an effect in both population dynamics and population structure. Unexpectedly, the previously clearly cyclic dynamics were much less regular in the study areas (and elsewhere in southern Finland) during the period of the experiment.     

Do scent marks increase predation risk of microtine rodents?

Reproductive activities, including signalling with scents, may increase the risk of predation. Mammalian predators, like small mustelids, find voles by using odour cues of scent marks. Scent marks are also visible in ultraviolet light, and at least some diurnal raptors are attracted to these markings in the field. We performed a field experiment to find out whether manipulation of scent markings affects the density, survival and mobility of free-living voles, and the activity of mammalian and avian predators. A total of 20 plots (each 1 ha) were randomly divided into two treatments: scent manipulation and control plots. Scent manipulation plots were treated with vole scent-liquid and control plots with water. From each plot 1–2 voles were radio-collared and tracked for three weeks. Predators hunted more often on scent manipulation plots than on control plots leading to lower survival time of voles. Although scent manipulation attracted more avian predators, small mustelids were the main predators of voles. The density or the mobility of voles did not differ significantly between manipulation and control plots. Our results suggest that odour of scent marks may be a larger risk to voles than UV visibility of scent marks.     

Dynamic effects of predators on cyclic voles: field experimentation and model extrapolation

Mechanisms generating the well-known 3-5 year cyclic fluctuations in densities of northern small rodents (voles and lemmings) have remained an ecological puzzle for decades. The hypothesis that these fluctuations are caused by delayed density-dependent impacts of predators was tested by replicated field experimentation in western Finland. We reduced densities of all main mammalian and avian predators through a 3 year vole cycle and compared vole abundances between four reduction and four control areas (each 2.5-3 km(2)). The reduction of predator densities increased the autumn density of voles fourfold in the low phase, accelerated the increase twofold, increased the autumn density of voles twofold in the peak phase, and retarded the initiation of decline of the vole cycle. Extrapolating these experimental results to their expected long-term dynamic effects through a demographic model produces changes from regular multiannual cycles to annual fluctuations with declining densities of specialist predators. This supports the findings of the field experiment and is in agreement with the predation hypothesis. We conclude that predators may indeed generate the cyclic population fluctuations of voles observed in northern Europe.     

Reproductive investment under fluctuating predation risk: Microtine rodents and small mustelids

Summary We studied the reproductive investment of microtine rodents (bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus),Microtus epiroticus andMicrotus agrestis) in western Finland under predation risk from small mustelids. During 1984–1992, the yearly mean litter size of overwintered bank voles was smaller at high least weasel and stoat densities than at low densities (close to 3 versus 4–5). In addition, the annual mean litter size of young bank voles was negatively correlated to the least weasel density. In youngM. agrestis voles, the yearly late summer litter size was negatively associated with the autumn density of small mustelids. In the crash phase of the vole cycle (1989 and 1992), we removed small mustelids (mainly least weasels) from four unfenced areas in late April to late May and studied the reproduction of voles in four removal and comparable control areas (each 2–4 km²). Reduction of small mustelids significantly increased the proportion of pregnant bank vole females, but not that of pregnantMicrotus vole females. We conclude that predation risk apparently reduced reproductive investment of free-living bank vole females; these voles appear to trade their current parental investment against future survival and reproductive prospects. Accordingly, the presence of small mustelids (or their scent) may slow down the reproductive rate of voles. As antipredatory behaviours occurred on a large scale, our results add evidence to the hypothesis that crashes in multiannual vole cycles are driven by small mustelid predators.     

Spatial synchrony in vole population fluctuations – a field experiment

Three mechanisms have been proposed to induce spatial synchrony in fluctuations of small mammal populations: climate‐related environmental effects, predation and dispersal. We conducted a field experiment in western Finland to evaluate the relative roles of these mechanisms in inducing spatial synchrony among cyclic populations of field voles Microtus agrestis. The study was conducted during the increase and peak phases of a vole population cycle on four agricultural field sites situated 1.5–7.0 km apart. Each field contained two 0.5‐ha fenced enclosures and one 1‐ha unfenced control area. One enclosure per field allowed access by small mustelid predators and the other by avian predators; all enclosures prevented the dispersal of voles. The unfenced control areas allowed access by all predators as well as dispersal by voles. Enclosed vole populations were in a treatment‐wise asynchronous phase before the predator access treatments were applied. The growth rates of all enclosed populations were tightly synchronized during the course of the experiment. Conversely, synchrony both among the unfenced populations and between the fenced and unfenced populations was practically non‐existent. During winter, in the increase phase of the cycle, vole populations in all treatments declined to low densities due to a seasonal effect of winter food depletion. During summer, in the peak year of the vole cycle, all populations fluctuated in synchrony. At this time, both small mustelids and birds of prey appeared to be abundant enough to induce synchrony. Dispersal was identified as a potential contributor to synchronization, but the magnitude of its effects could not be reliably discerned. Our results indicate that no single mechanism can account for the observed patterns of spatial synchrony among cyclic northern vole populations. Rather, spatial synchronization is induced by different mechanisms, namely seasonality and predation, acting successively during different seasons and phases of the vole cycle.     

Numerical response of small mustelids to vole abundance: delayed or not?

One of the most studied problems in population ecology has been to understand the relative roles of top–down and bottom–up forces in regulating animal populations. This has also been a key issue in studies of vole population dyna mics. Vole populations exhibit a wide variation of dynamics, from seasonal fluctuations to multiannual variations or cyclicity. One of the hypotheses to explain cyclic population dynamics is predation by the specialist predators. A common counterargument against the predation hypothesis has been the lack of conclusive observations of the time delay in the predators’ numerical response. We studied the interaction between voles and their specialist small mustelid predators, the stoat Mustela erminea and the least weasel Mustela n. nivalis, by modelling their interaction to data sets that cover large areas of Finland. Vole abundance was monitored with biannual trappings and their predators with snow‐tracking. Results show a high dependence of the predators on the voles, and this connection is generally tighter in weasels than in stoats. Weasel abundance is affected most strongly by the vole abundance in previous spring, 8.5– 10 months earlier, while in stoats the effect of autumn abundance of voles, 2.5–6 months earlier, was the strongest. These results, together with the observation that the weasels’ effects on voles are stronger after a time lag of 6–9.5 than 2–4.5 months, indicate the existence of a time lag in weasels’ numerical response. A time lag in the predators’ numerical response is a necessary condition for the predators to drive population cycles in its prey, and therefore our results support the specialist predation hypothesis.     

Experimental tests of predation and food hypotheses for population cycles of voles

Pronounced population cycles are characteristic of many herbivorous small mammals in northern latitudes. Although delayed density-dependent effects of predation and food shortage are often proposed as factors driving population cycles, firm evidence for causality is rare because sufficiently replicated, large-scale field experiments are lacking. We conducted two experiments on Microtus voles in four large predator-proof enclosures and four unfenced control areas in western Finland. Predator exclusion induced rapid population growth and increased the peak abundance of voles over 20-fold until the enclosed populations crashed during the second winter due to food shortage. Thereafter, voles introduced to enclosures which had suffered heavy grazing increased to higher densities than voles in previously ungrazed control areas which were exposed to predators. We concluded that predation inhibits an increase in vole populations until predation pressure declines, thus maintaining the low phase of the cycle, but also that population cycles in voles are not primarily driven by plant-herbivore interactions.     

Does risk of predation by mammalian predators affect the spacing behaviour of rodents? Two large-scale experiments

Predator-prey interactions between small mammals and their avian and mammalian predators have attracted much attention. However, large-scale field experiments examining small-mammal antipredatory responses under the risk of predation by mammals are rare. As recently pointed out, the scale of experiments may cause misleading results in studies of decision-making under predation risk. We studied the effect of small mustelid predators on the spacing behaviour of the gray-tailed vole (Microtus canicaudus) and the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) in two separate field enclosure experiments. The experiments were conducted during the breeding season in North America and northern Europe, where small mustelids have been suggested to be important mammalian predators of voles. As in most of the earlier laboratory studies, predation risk was simulated using fresh mustelid faeces and urine. This made it possible to compare the results from experiments at different spatial scales. We did not find any effect of increased predation risk on spacing behaviour (mean and/or maximum distance moved and home range size) or trappability in either vole species. Simulated predation risk did not affect the breeding of females in gray-tailed voles, as has previously been shown in bank voles. The results disagree with most of the studies conducted in laboratory conditions with small mammals. We discuss whether this discrepancy could be caused by differences in the scale of the experiments. Received: 12 April 1999 / Accepted: 7 October 1999     

Owl winter irruptions as an indicator of small mammal population cycles in the boreal forest of eastern North America

Contrary to what is observed in Fennoscandia, it seems to be widely accepted that small mammals do not exhibit multi-annual population cycles in the boreal forest of North America. However, in the last thirty years, irruptions of vole predators such as owls have been reported by ornithologists south of the North American boreal forest. While such southerly irruptions have been associated in Fennoscandia with periods of low abundance of small mammals within their usual distribution range, their possible cyclic nature and their relationships to fluctuations in vole densities at northern latitudes has not yet been demonstrated in North America. With information collected from existing data-bases, we examined the presence of cycles in small mammals and their main avian predators by using temporal autocorrelation analyses. Winter invasions of boreal owls ( Aegolius funereus ) were periodic, with a 4-yr cycle in Québec. Populations of one species of small mammal, the red-backed vole ( Clethrionomys gapperi ), fluctuated periodically in boreal forests of Québec (north to 48°N). Boreal owls show invasion cycles which correspond to years of low density of red-backed voles, the main food item for this owl species. In addition, winter observations of northern hawk owls ( Surnia ulula ) and great gray owls ( Strix nebulosa ) south of their usual range increased in years of low density of red-backed voles. Our results suggest that a 4-yr population cycle exists in the eastern boreal forest of North America for voles and owls, which is very similar to the one observed in Fennoscandia.     

Vole fluctuations,red fox responses,predation on fawns,and roe deer dynamics in a temperate latitude

The alternative prey hypothesis predicts that predators respond both functionally and numerically (with a time lag) to fluctuations in the main prey abundance, which affects the survival of alternative prey. This pattern was found in northern Europe in the community formed by voles (Microtidae), red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). We studied the same predator—prey community in a temperate latitude where, according to the predation hypothesis, only the functional response of predators to changes in main prey availability should occur. In the years 1997–2007, in western Poland, we estimated the index of common vole (Microtus arvalis) abundance (burrow counts), the density of foxes (spotlight counts), the young production in foxes (young/adult ratio), the index of fox predation on fawns (prey remains near dens) as well as the reproduction index (fawn/female ratio) and density of roe deer (total counts). The vole abundance fluctuated considerably, the young production in foxes did not correlate with the main prey availability, but the density of foxes showed direct numerical response. The index of fox predation on fawns decreased with the vole abundance and negatively affected the fawn/female ratio in roe deer. Thus, the relationships between voles and foxes were not fully consistent with the predation hypothesis. The direct numerical response of foxes should tend to stabilize this predator—prey community. It is suggested, however, that responses showed by vole-eating predators in temperate latitudes may sometimes affect their alternative prey, including animals with unfavourable conservation status.     

Vole cycles and antipredatory behaviour

During recent years the role of predation as a simple mechanism to produce cyclical population fluctuations in microtine rodent populations has gained stronger empirical and theoretical support. Predation by several generalist species produces non-cyclicity, and predation by resident specialists, such as small mustelids, produces a synchronous cyclic pattern of population fluctuations in several vole species. At the same time, behavioural ecological studies have shown that the same group of specialist predators crucial for cyclicity causes the strongest antipredatory responses in vole behaviour. Recently, breeding suppression in cyclic microtines under risk of mustelid predation has been documented both in the laboratory and in the field. This review links the new population ecological studies and modelling of cyclic microtines and their predators with recent findings on antipredatory adaptations of voles.     

Multiple predators induce risk reduction in coexisting vole species

Large predators may affect the hunting efficiency of smaller ones directly by decreasing their numbers, or indirectly by altering their behaviour. Either way this may have positive effects on the density of shared prey. Using large outdoor enclosures, we experimentally studied whether the presence of the Tengmalm's owl Aegolius funereus affects the hunting efficiency of the smallest member of the vole-eating predator guild, the least weasel Mustela nivalis, as measured by population responses of coexisting prey species, the field vole Microtus agrestis and the sibling vole M. levis . We compared the density and survival probability of vole populations exposed to no predation, weasel predation or combined predation by a weasel and an owl. The combined predation of both owl and weasel did not result in obvious changes in the density of sibling and field vole populations compared to the control populations without predators, while predation by least weasel alone decreased the densities of sibling voles and induced a similar trend in field vole densities. Survival of field voles was not affected by predator treatment while sibling vole survival was lower in predator treated populations than in control populations. Our results suggest that weasels are intimidated by avian predators, but without changing the effects of predators on competitive situations between the two vole species. Non-lethal effects of intraguild predation therefore will not necessarily change competitive interactions between shared prey species.     

Cyclic voles, prey switching in red fox, and roe deer dynamics – a test of the alternative prey hypothesis

Medium-sized predators sometimes switch to alternative prey species as their main prey declines. Our objective of this study was to test the alternative prey hypothesis for a medium sized predator (red fox, Vulpes vulpes ), a small cyclically fluctuating main prey (microtine voles) and larger alternative prey (roe deer fawns, Capreolus capreolus ). We used long-term time series (28 years) on voles, red fox and roe deer from the Grimsö Wildlife Research Area (59°40'N, 15°25'E) in south-central Sweden to investigate interspecific relationships in the annual fluctuations in numbers of the studied species. Annual variation in number of roe deer fawns in autumn was significantly and positively related to vole density and significantly and negatively related to the number of fox litters in the previous year. In years of high vole density, predation on roe deer fawns was small, but in years of low vole density predation was more severe. The time lag between number of fox litters and predation on fawns was due to the time lag in functional response of red fox in relation to voles. This study demonstrates for the first time that the alternative prey hypothesis is applicable to the system red fox, voles and roe deer fawns.     

Breeding suppression in the bank vole as antipredatory adaptation in a predictable environment

Summary In northern Fennoscandia, microtine rodent populations fluctuate cyclically. The environment of an individual vole can be considered to be predictable when the risks of predation and intra- and interspecific competition change with the cycle, such that both are high during the population highs of voles. The risk of predation is also high during the vole crash. After the crash, the vole population is characterized by low intra- and interspecific competition and low predation pressure. The main predators affecting voles during the crash are the small mustelids, least weasel and stoat. The density of these specialist predators declines drastically during the winter after the vole crash. We studied experimentally the impact of the perceived presence of stoats on the breeding and mating behaviour of voles. In a series of breeding experiments with bank voles,Clethrionomys glareolus, both old and young females suppressed breeding when exposed to the odour of stoats,Mustela erminea. The weights of females decreased in both experimental and control groups, but more among the voles under odour exposition. It seems that females actively avoided copulations under high predation risk and that breeding suppression is mediated by a change in female mating behaviour. There was no change in male behaviour or physical condition between the experimental and control treatments. An alternative mechanism for the observed breeding suppression could be the one caused by decreased feeding in females mediated with low energy intake which does not allow breeding. Regardless of its mechanism, delay of breeding should increase the probability of non-breeding females to survive to the next breeding season. The females surviving the crash should gain a strong selective advantage in a predator-free environment of the subsequent breeding season, which could explain the adaptive function of this antipredatory strategy.     

An estimate of the impact of predators on the British Field Vole Microtus agrestis population

The productivity of the British Field Vole population is estimated to be between 677 000 and 982 000 voles per year, depending on the precise basis of the calculation. The total consumption of Field Voles by all the major predators, mammalian and avian, is estimated to be around 980 000, if the very uncertain consumption by Feral Cats is included. Two specialist vole predators (Weasel, Kestrel) and two generalist predators (Red Fox, Feral Cat) consume 85% of the total between them, the other 10 species share the rest between them. However important voles might be for owls, owl predation is unimportant to voles. The slight evidence for cyclicity in Field Vole populations in Britain might be explained by the overall take of voles by the predators, and by the rather generalized diet of even the vole specialists.     

Changes in population structure and reproduction during a 3-yr population cycle of voles

Cyclic changes in population growth rate are caused by changes in survival and/or reproductive rate. To find out whether cyclic changes in reproduction are an important part of the mechanism causing cyclic fluctuations in small mammal populations, we studied changes in the population structure and reproduction of field voles ( Microtus agrestis ), sibling voles ( M. rossiaemeridionalis ), bank voles ( Clethrionomys glareolus ), and common shrews ( Sorex araneus ) in western Finland during 1984–1992, in an area with 3-yr vole cycles. We also modelled the population growth of voles using parameter values from this study. The animals studied were collected by snap trapping in April, May, June, August, September, and, during 1986–1990, also in October. We found several phase-related differences in the population structure (age structure, sex ratio, proportion of mature individuals) and reproduction (litter size, length of the breeding season) of voles. In non-cyclic common shrews, the only significant phase-related difference was a lower proportion of overwintered individuals in the increase phase. According to the analyses and the vole model, phase-related changes in litter size had only a minor impact on population growth rate. The same was true for winter breeding in the increase phase. The length and intensity of the summer breeding season had an effect on yearly population growth but this impact was relatively weak compared to the effect of cyclic changes in survival. The population increase rates of Microtus were delayed dependent on density (8–12-month time lag). Our results indicate that cyclic changes in reproduction are not an important part of the mechanism driving cyclic fluctuations in vole populations. Low survival of young individuals appeared to play an important role in the shift from the peak to the decline phase in late summer and early autumn.     

Voles on small islands: effects of food limitation and alien predation

Ecosystems of three trophic levels may be bottom-up (by food-plant availability) and/or top-down (by predators) limited. Top-down control might be of greater consequence when the predation impact comes from an alien predator. We conducted a replicated two-factor experiment with field voles (Microtus agrestis) during 2004-2005 on small islands of the outer archipelago of the Baltic Sea, south-west Finland, manipulating both predation impact by introduced American mink (Mustela vison) and winter food supply. In autumn 2004, we live-trapped voles on five islands from which mink had been consistently removed, and on four islands where mink were present, and provided half of these islands with 1.8 kg oats per vole. Body mass of female voles increased as a response to supplementary food, whereas both food supplementation and mink removal increased the body mass of male voles in subsequent spring. During winter, there was a positive effect of supplementary food, but in the subsequent summer, possible positive long-term impacts of food supplementation on field voles were not detected. Mink removal appeared not to affect density estimates of field voles during the winter and summer immediately after food addition. Trapping data from 2004 to 2005 and 2007 suggested, however, that in two out of three summers densities of voles were significantly higher in the absence than in the presence of mink. We conclude that vole populations on small islands in the archipelago of the Baltic Sea are mainly bottom-up limited during winter (outside the growing season of food plants), when food availability is low, and limited by mink predation during summer which slows population growth during the reproductive season of voles.     

Population regulation of vendace (Coregonus albula) in Lake Pyhäjärvi, southwest Finland

Previous time series analysis on vendace population dynamics in Lake Pyhäjärvi, 1971–1990, revealed a 2-year cycle in year-class strength, implying powerful density-dependent regulation. Here we have extended this analysis by using multiple regression models to test whether the recruitment series is influenced by density-independent factors. We chose population size with a lag of 1 year as the density-dependent factor; the density-independent factors were the summer water temperature with a lag of 2 years (temperature sum for June, July and August, indicating the year-class strength of predators) and the temperature-derived length of the larval period of vendace. For the years 1972–1990 the coefficient of determination ( r ²) of this regression model was 0·77. We suggest that the basic mechanism producing a persistent 2-year cycle of vendace in Lake Pyhäjärvi is the asymmetrical food competition between age groups. The abundance of predators in the lake and the warming of the water after the hatching of larvae in spring together determine the final year-class strength of vendace.