Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta‐analysis of 11 cities

Aim Urban environments around the world share many features in common, including the local extinction of native plant species. We tested the hypothesis that similarity in environmental conditions among urban areas should select for plant species with a particular suite of traits suited to those conditions, and lead to the selective extinction of species lacking those traits. Location Eleven cities with data on the plant species that persisted and those that went locally extinct within at least the last 100 years following urbanization. Methods We compiled data on 11 plant traits for 8269 native species in the 11 cities and used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the degree to which traits could distinguish species that persisted from those that went locally extinct in each city. The trait effects from each city were then combined in a meta‐analysis. Results The cities fell into two groups: those with relatively low rates of extinction (less than 0.05% species per year – Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco), for which no traits reliably predicted the pattern of extinction, and those with higher rates of extinction (> 0.08% species per year – Auckland, Chicago, Melbourne, New York, Singapore and Worcester, MA), where short‐statured, small‐seeded plants were more likely to go extinct. Main conclusions Our analysis reveals patterns in trait selectivity consistent with local studies, suggesting some consistency in trait selection by urbanization. Overall, however, few traits reliably predicted the pattern of plant extinction across cities, making it difficult to identify a priori the extinction‐prone species most likely to be affected by urban expansion.     

城市生物多样性分布格局研究进展

城市生物多样性分布格局由自然生态环境和城市化过程所决定;其动态和机理与自然生态系统迥然不同.城市生物多样性为城市生态系统提供了诸多生态系统功能和服务,对改善城市环境、维持城市可持续发展有着重要的意义和作用.城市化过程深刻改变了城市的生物多样性分布格局,导致了诸如本地物种多样性降低、外来物种多样性增加、物种同质化等一系列问题.近年来,城市生物多样性受到学界高度关注,大量研究结果既回答了一些关键性问题,又提出了诸多新的论题和挑战.分析了当前城市生物多样性分布格局研究的若干热点问题,总结了影响城市生物多样性格局的主要因素,探讨了城市生物多样性格局研究方法的关键问题,指出了未来城市生物多样性研究的发展方向,特别强调了城市生物多样性的生态系统功能研究在未来城市生物多样性研究中的重要地位.     

Re-assessing current extinction rates

There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.     

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70 years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.     

Local extinction of British farmland birds and the prediction of further loss

1.  The populations of many UK farmland birds declined between 1970 and 1990, frequently accompanied by contractions in breeding ranges. Ornithological atlas data, land use data and environmental data at the scale of 10-km squares were used to investigate the relationship between local extinctions and habitat suitability for six species, and to predict where future losses are most likely.
2.  For each species we tested the hypothesis that local extinctions were concentrated in environments that were inherently less suitable. We also tested the hypothesis that spatial patterns of loss were not independent between species due to their concurrence in the same habitats.
3.  Multivariate analyses (PCA) showed that areas where each species became extinct between 1970 and 1990 were more similar in land use type, climate and topography to areas where a species was never present than those where it was retained; local extinction was more likely in less suitable environments. Multiple logistic regression showed that for five of the six species the environmental gradient best predicting presence or absence in 1970 was also that best predicting loss between 1970 and 1990. For the six species studied, local extinctions were least likely in lowland arable areas.
4.  For any pair of species, local extinctions were more frequent outside the area of overlap of the two species' ranges than inside. Within the area of overlap, species tended to be lost from the same squares. For each species, likelihood of local extinction declined with increasing number of the other five species present.
5.  We used model parameters to map the probability of future local extinctions of the six species considered, allowing the identification of key areas for conservation management at a spatial scale appropriate to agri-economic incentives.     

Long-term change in the floristic composition and vegetation structure of Carnac Island, Western Australia

Aim To document changes in the floristic composition and vegetation structure of Carnac Island during a period of 40 years. This paper presents a synthesis of all available floristic and vegetational information. Location Carnac Island is 8 km offshore from Fremantle, south‐west Western Australia. Methods Comparison of lists of plant species for 1951, 1958/9, 1966/7, 1975/6 and 1995–6. Comparison of vegetation, based on structural and floristic elements, for 1951, 1965, 1972, 1984 and 1995. Results Floristic composition (both native and exotic species) changed most dramatically in the period 1975/6–1995/6, with a 37% reduction in number of plant species. The number of annual and perennial native species present in 1995/6 was most similar to that in 1951. The most remarkable change in the flora has been the increase in annual exotic species since 1951. Immigration and extinction rates were greatest in the periods 1951–58/9 and 1958/9–1966/7, respectively. Vegetation structure has also altered, involving a reduction in height of dominant species from 3–4 m to 1 m as Acacia rostellifera and Olearia axillaris have declined in distribution. The weed species Mesembryanthemum crystallinum (first recorded 1975) and Malva parviflora (1958) now dominate the vegetation of half the island. Main conclusions Five factors are considered to have contributed to botanical change: nesting seabird populations, eradication of the rabbit in 1969, drought, increased saltload from occasional cyclones in summer or autumn, and competition from increasing dominance of several weed species. Several of these factors have operated in opposing ways with respect to plant species richness and vegetation cover. Experimental studies are required to determine the strength of these interactions. Two weed species, Zantedeschia aethiopica (first recorded 1966) and Lycium ferocissimum (1992) have the potential to dominate the vegetation of the island.     

Effects of local extinction of the plains vizcacha (Lagostomus maximus) on vegetation patterns in semi-arid scrub

We studied spatial and temporal effects of local extinction of the plains vizcacha (Lagostomus maximus) on plant communities following widespread, natural extinctions of vizcachas in semi-arid scrub of Argentina. Spatial patterns in vegetation were examined along transects extending outward from active and extinct vizcacha burrow systems. Responses of vegetation to removal of vizcachas were assessed experimentally with exclosures and by documenting vegetation dynamics for 6 years following extinctions. Transect data demonstrated clear spatial patterns in plant cover, particularly an increase in perennial grasses, outward from active vizcacha burrows. These patterns were consistent with predictions based on foraging theory and studies that document grasses as the preferred food of vizcachas. Removal of vizcachas, experimentally and with extinctions, resulted in an immediate increase in perennial and annual forbs indicating that intense herbivory can depress forb cover, as well as grasses. After a 1-year lag following cessation of herbivory, cover of grasses increased. Forbs declined as grasses increased. The long-term effect of extinction of vizcachas was a conversion of colony sites from open patches dominated by forbs to dense bunch grass characteristic of the matrix. Major changes in vegetation occurred within 2–3 years after extinction, resulting in a large pulse of landscape change. However, some species of grasses were uncommon until 5–6 years after the vizcacha extinction. With extinction and colonization, vizcachas generate a dynamic mosaic of patches on the landscape and create temporal, as well as spatial, heterogeneity in semi-arid scrub.     

The effects of grazing on local colonisation and extinction during early succession

Estimates of colonisation of plant species were made at three spatial scales in an old-field on limestone subject to five experimental sheep grazing regimes. Local extinctions within grazing treatments were estimated in 1-m² permanent quadrats. These data were used to assess the effects of grazing treatment and spatial scale on the process of species change over a period of six years. Colonisation of the lOha field was virtually a random draw of plant species from adj acent vegetation, irrespective of plant life-history traits including dispersal strategy. The effects of grazing on colonisation increased at smaller spatial scales. Colonisation rates changed little during the study on the 10 ha scale, but declined steeply with time at smaller scales. Colonisation rates of short-lived species declined more than those of perennials, and short-lived species were subject to erratic episodes of extinction which did not affect perennials. Short periods of grazing enhanced colonisation rates of all species, but extinction rates were the same as in ungrazed controls. Grazing for longer periods further enhanced colonisation rates, but also increased extinction rates. This produced diversity patterns consistent with a ‘hump-backed model’, except that no grazing treatment was heavy enough to decrease diversity. Ungrazed controls had low species diversity, but areas grazed for longer periods were no more diverse after six years than those grazed for short periods.     

城市化鸟类群落变化及其与城市植被的关系

持续而快速的城市化进程正在助长全球生物多样性的丧失,其中鸟类是城市生态系统的重要环节和城市生物多样性保护的重点目标,同时也是研究的热点内容。从城市环境变化压力下,鸟类群落组成与结构、空间分布和繁殖营巢方式的改变分析,重点介绍了支持城市地区鸟类多样性的植物环境因素与影响机制的最新研究成果。结果表明：1）城市中的植被和绿色空间为城市鸟类提供生存空间和食物资源,是城市鸟类最主要的栖息地。2）保留原生乡土植物和大型树木的地区能支持更丰富的鸟类物种。3）植被的结构和盖度对鸟类群落有显著影响。林冠覆盖率增加,复杂的垂直空间和多样的植物种类的组合产生各种不同类型的植物空间和栖息地类型,吸引不同的鸟类物种,相应地也会导致更丰富的鸟类群落。总之,保持和加强城市中植物环境良好和稳定是保护城市生物多样性的有效手段。据此,提出城市环境与鸟类群落关系研究的未来发展方向,指出了其在鸟类多样性保护和城市可持续发展等领域的应用前景。     

Marine biogeography and ecology: invasions and introductions

Although biogeography and ecology had previously been considered distinct disciplines, this outlook began to change in the early 1990s. Several people expressed interest in creating a link that would help ecologists become more aware of external influences on communities and help biogeographers realize that distribution patterns had their genesis at the community level. They proposed an interdisciplinary approach called macroecology. This concept has been aided by the advent of phylogeography, for a better knowledge of genetic relationships has had great interdisciplinary value. Two areas of research that should obviously benefit from a macroecological approach are: (1) the question of local vs. regional diversity and (2) the question of whether invader species pose a threat to biodiversity. The two questions are related, because both deal with the vulnerability of ecosystems to penetration by invading species. Biogeographers, who have studied the broad oceanic patterns of dispersal and colonization, tend to regard isolated communities as being open to invasion from areas with greater biodiversity. It became evident that many wide‐ranging species were produced in centres of origin, and that the location of communities with respect to such centres had a direct effect on the level of species diversity. Ecologists, in earlier years, thought that a community could become saturated with species and would thereafter be self‐sustaining. But recent research has shown that saturation is probably never achieved and that the assembly of communities and their maintenance is more or less dependent on the invasion of species from elsewhere. The study of invasions that take place in coastal areas, usually the result of ship traffic and/or aquaculture imports, has special importance due to numerous opinions expressed by scientists and policy‐makers that such invasions are a major threat to biodiversity. However, none of the studies so far conducted has identified the extinction of a single, native marine species due to the influence of an exotic invader. Furthermore, fossil evidence of historical invasions does not indicate that invasive species have caused native extinctions or reductions in biodiversity.     

Composition of the soil seed bank in remnant patches of grassy woodland along an urbanization gradient in Melbourne, Australia

Urban areas around the world are rapidly expanding, with flow-on consequences for the native plants and animals that inhabit these areas. The impacts of this urban growth are not always immediate, and in the case of the local extinction of plant species may take up to 100–150 years. Understanding how urbanization affects ecological patterns and processes may allow us to minimize the loss of species from these areas through better planning and conservation decisions. This study examined the composition of the soil seed bank in remnant patches of grassy woodland along an urbanization gradient in northern Melbourne, Australia, using an ex-situ glasshouse germination trial. A total of 108 species emerged from the soil seed bank, although a majority of the seedlings were seeds from 19 non-indigenous monocot species. Species richness per plot of emergent seedlings was best explained by average annual rainfall, rather than the degree of urbanization in the surrounding landscape. This indicates that the existing plant community may be responding to a natural productivity gradient. The persistence of 123 indigenous plant species in the existing vegetation, even when the soil seed bank is dominated by non-indigenous monocot species, suggests that these plant communities can exist within urban areas, particularly in combination with appropriate management activities that ensure the continuation of previously occurring natural processes.     

Habitat resources, remnant vegetation condition and area determine distribution patterns and abundance of butterflies and day-flying moths in a fragmented urban landscape, south-west Western Australia

The creation of cities, towns and farms following European settlement of Australia has fragmented the original vegetation. Many native species that were previously widespread are now found only within isolated remnants of their original habitat. These relictual populations are at increased risk of decline and local extinction, so identifying the factors that determine their persistence is important for ongoing management and conservation. I compared the effects of site area, connectivity, vegetation condition and habitat resources on the presence, abundance and total number of species of butterflies and day-flying moths within 46 urban fragments of remnant vegetation in south-west Western Australia. Site area and vegetation condition were the dominant determinants of species presence: large sites with more undisturbed vegetation favoured 16 of 20 native species and only one (Geitoneura minyas) benefited from disturbance. Another nine species that were not sufficiently widespread or abundant to enable individual analysis were collectively more prevalent in larger sites. Resource quality and quantity dominated the patterns of site occupancy, consistent with habitat resources, not metapopulation effects, determining current distribution patterns. The total number of species at each site reflected the collective responses of the individual species: increasing with area and declining with vegetation disturbance. The effects of area and vegetation condition were not simply additive: disturbance had a far greater impact on small remnants. Restoration or maintenance of high vegetation condition will be essential to maintain regional species diversity and to prevent local extinctions of butterflies and day-flying moths, especially in small remnants.     

Decline and potential recovery of Yellow-footed Antechinus in parts of south-eastern Australia: A perspective with implications for management

Summary   The extent and intensity of European-induced changes to ecosystems in south-eastern Australia mean that remaining habitats, despite being degraded, are of high conservation value. Given the extinction of several species of native mammals in the last 160 years in the area, and conservation concerns regarding others, it is important to provide conservation managers with sufficient information to prevent further extinctions and maintain evolutionary potential of the species. A native, carnivorous marsupial, the Yellow-footed Antechinus ( Antechinus flavipes ) exists within these massively altered landscapes. We present conceptual models, derived from the literature, of persistence of populations of Yellow-footed Antechinus both before European colonization and in the 21st century. We conclude that preservation of large trees, restoration of fallen-timber volumes, spring flooding of floodplains and presence of vegetation corridors between forests should be undertaken to prevent local extinctions of Yellow-footed Antechinus. From historic and current gene flow, we identify remnant woodland and forest groupings that we consider should be managed as coherent units.     

Possible effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on the range of forest plant species

Global circulation models predict an increase in mean annual temperature between 2.1 and 4.6 °C by 2080 in the northern temperate zone. The associated changes in the ratio of extinctions and colonizations at the boundaries of species ranges are expected to result in northward range shifts for a lot of species. However, net species colonization at northern boundary ranges, necessary for a northward shift and for range conservation, may be hampered because of habitat fragmentation. We report the results of two forest plant colonization studies in two fragmented landscapes in central Belgium. Almost all forest plant species (85%) had an extremely low success of colonizing spatially segregated new suitable forest habitats after c . 40 years. In a landscape with higher forest connectivity, colonization success was higher but still insufficient to ensure large-scale colonization. Under the hypothesis of net extinction at southern range boundaries, forest plant species dispersal limitation will prevent net colonization at northern range boundaries required for range conservation.     

GLOBE students, teachers, and scientists demonstrate variable differences between urban and rural leaf phenology

The urban heat island effect, classically associated with high impervious surface area (ISA), low vegetation fractional cover (Fr), and high land surface temperature (LST), has been linked to changing patterns of vegetation phenology, especially spring growth. In this study, a collaboration with the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program, we investigated the effect of the urban environment on the timing of leaf budburst of native deciduous trees in seven cities: Asia (Tokyo, Japan; Bangkok and Korat, Thailand), Europe (Jyväskylä, Finland; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan), Africa (Dakar, Senegal), and North America (Fairbanks, Alaska). The cities differed not only in population size but also in climate and vegetation type. Using Landsat satellite imagery from each city, we calculated LST, Fr, and ISA, and classified sites within each study area as rural or urban. The timing of leaf flushing, measured by students using GLOBE budburst protocols, was statistically different within all cities, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 23 days. We assessed the classic urban phenology paradigm, which proposes higher LST, lower Fr, and earlier budburst in urban areas of temperate cities. Of the four temperate cities, Tokyo followed the classic paradigm, but no other city demonstrated consistent support. Urban budburst was advanced in three of the four temperate cities, but in only one of the three tropical cities. Results suggest that while vegetation phenology is consistently different between urban and rural areas, a uniform paradigm based on the explanatory variables in this study did not emerge. Although not testable here, it is likely that alterations to chilling requirements in temperate climates and humidity in tropical climates may also influence observed budburst differences.     

Correlates of extinction proneness in tropical angiosperms

Rapid losses and degradation of natural habitats in the tropics are driving catastrophic declines and extinctions of native biotas, including angiosperms. Determining the ecological and life-history correlates of extinction proneness in tropical plant species may help reveal the mechanisms underlying their responses to habitat disturbance, and assist in the pre-emptive identification of species at risk from extinction. We determined the predictors of extinction proneness in 1884 locally extinct ( n  = 454) and extant ( n  = 1430) terrestrial angiosperms (belonging to 43 orders, 133 families, and 689 genera) in the tropical island nation of Singapore (699.4 km²), which has lost 99.6% of its primary lowland evergreen rainforest since 1819. A wide variety of traits such as geographical distribution, pollination system, sexual system, habit, habitat, height, fruit/seed dispersal mechanism, and capacity for vegetative re-sprouting were used in the analysis. Despite controlling for phylogeny (as approximated by family level classification), we found that only a small percentage of the variation in the extinction probability could be explained by these factors. Epiphytic, monoecious, and hermaphroditic species and those restricted to inland forests have higher probabilities of extinction. Species dependent on mammal pollinators also probably have higher extinction probabilities. More comparative studies that use species traits to identify extinction-prone plant species are needed to guide the enormous, but essential task of identifying species most in need of conservation action.     

长三角地区植被覆盖演变城乡差异及其原因

城市生态环境和城市化之间的关系是城市可持续发展的关键。研究不同城市化水平下植被覆盖的长时间演变趋势,对理解城市化过程对植被生长动态的影响,城市更新以及推进城市绿化的科学管理具有重要意义。然而,目前对城市内部沿城乡梯度植被生长趋势差异的认识还比较有限。以我国城市化发展最为强烈的长三角地区为研究对象,基于2000-2020年长三角归一化植被指数数据,采用趋势分析和地理探测器方法,探究了长三角地区城市内部植被覆盖演变城乡差异,并从土地利用/覆被变化和城市化发展的角度解析其成因。研究结果表明：（1）2000-2020年长三角地区植被总体呈绿化趋势,植被明显绿化占最大比例（52.06%）,轻微绿化与稳定不变地区占31.68%,零星分布的褐化区占6.82%。（2）城市老城区植被覆盖变化总体呈现返绿趋势（0.016/10 a）,新城区褐化明显（-0.019/10 a）,农郊区绿化突出（0.023/10 a）。在上海、南京和杭州等人口城市化水平较高的城市中,老城区土地利用变化强度最高,其绿化趋势也最高,体现了城市更新过程对绿地空间的促进作用;而在人口城市化水平相对较低的宣城、蚌埠和阜阳等城市,土地利用变化强度相对较低的农郊区也呈现明显的绿化趋势,更多的是受到区域生态保护的影响。（3）土地城市化是长三角地区老城区和新城区植被覆盖变化的主导因子,而城市化因子对农郊区解释程度总体不显著。从长三角总体区域看,城镇人口比重、不透水面积/总面积以及地区生产总值三者对植被覆盖演变存在显著影响,其中城镇人口比重影响最大。     

Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species

Climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, especially to tropical species. Yet, why tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change remains unclear. Tropical species are thought to have narrower physiological tolerances to temperature, and they have already experienced a higher estimated frequency of climate-related local extinctions. These two patterns suggest that tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change because they have narrower thermal niche widths. However, no studies have tested whether species with narrower climatic niche widths for temperature have experienced more local extinctions, and if these narrower niche widths can explain the higher frequency of tropical local extinctions. Here, we test these ideas using resurvey data from 538 plant and animal species from 10 studies. We found that mean niche widths among species and the extent of climate change (increase in maximum annual temperatures) together explained most variation (>75%) in the frequency of local extinction among studies. Surprisingly, neither latitude nor occurrence in the tropics alone significantly predicted local extinction among studies, but latitude and niche widths were strongly inversely related. Niche width also significantly predicted local extinction among species, as well as among and (sometimes) within studies. Overall, niche width may offer a relatively simple and accessible predictor of the vulnerability of populations to climate change. Intriguingly, niche width has the best predictive power to explain extinction from global warming when it incorporates coldest yearly temperatures.     

The effects of burning on the understorey composition of 11–13 year-old rehabilitated bauxite mines in Western Australia – Vegetation characteristics

Alcoa of Australia Limited has been rehabilitating bauxite mines in the jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest of Western Australia for more than 30 years. Mines rehabilitated in the early 1980s using out-dated methods have built up substantial fuel loads that may be reduced through prescribed burning. The vegetation response of 11–13 year-old rehabilitated bauxite mines to fire regimes differing in intensity and season over the first two years of post-burn succession is compared to the native jarrah forest. A total of 243 species from 137 genera and 56 families were identified in the native forest reference sites and in the 11–13 year-old rehabilitated areas before and after burning. The vegetation of the pre-burn rehabilitated areas was very different to that of the native jarrah forest. While total live plant cover, Acacia density, non-native eucalypt seedling density, weed density and the evenness index were similar between the two areas, total plant density, live Acacia cover, the proportion of weeds, native species numbers and diversity were significantly different. However, the greatest difference between the vegetation of the pre-burn rehabilitated sites and the native jarrah forest was the higher dominance of seeding species (plants killed by fire) in rehabilitated areas. In contrast, native jarrah forest was dominated by resprouting species (plants that survive fire). Burning the rehabilitated sites was successful in making the areas more similar to the forest in terms of total plant density, live Acacia cover and native species numbers but decreased their similarity in terms of live plant cover, Acacia density, non-native eucalypt seedling density, weed density and evenness. The vegetation response of the rehabilitated areas to different seasons of burning showed that autumn burning led to a greater increase in plant establishment than spring burning. Autumn burning also resulted in an undesirable increase in the density of non-native eucalypt seedlings that was not observed following spring burning. Although burning these 11–13 year-old rehabilitated sites will increase similarity to the native forest, it is unlikely that they will resemble the native jarrah forest without further management intervention.     

Disequilibrial island turnover dynamics: a 17‐year record of Bahamian ants

Aim To document long‐term rates of immigration, extinction and turnover in insular ant faunas and evaluate the relative impacts of recent hurricane activity and climate change. Location Small islands in the Exuma Cays, Andros and Abaco archipelagos of the Bahamas. Methods I surveyed the ant faunas of > 140 small islands in three archipelagos of the Bahamas over several multi‐year periods, spanning up to 17 years, by recording species attracted to baits. Immigrations, extinctions and species turnover were documented, as were the relative abundances of species. Four major hurricanes affected the study archipelagos in the second decade of this study. Results Rates of ant turnover were generally low among archipelagos and time periods. Immigrations outnumbered extinctions in the first decade of this study, although this pattern was reversed in the second decade. General physical characteristics of the islands were not significant predictors of the occurrence of extinctions. The relative abundance (based on proportion of baits occupied) of persistent populations of the two most common species both declined in the second decade, indicating, along with higher extinction rates, a generalized decline in these insular ant faunas. Main conclusions The available evidence suggests that hurricanes were not directly responsible for the observed declines in the ant faunas. Regional changes in insular ant species richness, however, are correlated with generalized North Atlantic hurricane activity over the last half century. Indirect effects of hurricanes on the vegetation of these islands, such as increased herbivory and possible decreased nutrient availability, along with a long‐term (quarter century) increase in temperature and decline in rainfall, are possible contributing factors to the changing ant turnover dynamics.