Extreme climatic events reduce ocean productivity and larval supply in a tropical reef ecosystem

Increasing ocean temperatures due to global warming are predicted to have negative effects on coral reef fishes. El Niño events are associated with elevated water temperatures at large spatial (1000s of km) and temporal (annual) scales, providing environmental conditions that enable temperature effects on reef fishes to be tested directly. We compared remote sensing data of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, surface current flow and chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) concentration with monthly patterns in larval supply of coral reef fishes in nearshore waters around Rangiroa Atoll (French Polynesia) from January 1996 to March 2000. This time included an intense El Niño (April 1997–May 1998) event between two periods of La Niña (January–March 1996 and August 1998–March 2000) conditions. There was a strong relationship between the timing of the El Niño event, current flow, ocean productivity (as measured by Chl‐a) and larval supply. In the warm conditions of the event, there was an increase in the SST anomaly index up to 3.5 °C above mean values and a decrease in the strength of the westward surface current toward the reef. These conditions coincided with low concentrations of Chl‐a (mean: 0.06 mg m^?3, SE ± 0.004) and a 51% decline in larval supply from mean values. Conversely, during strong La Niña conditions when SST anomalies were almost 2 °C below mean values and there was a strong westward surface current, Chl‐a concentration was 150% greater than mean values and larval supply was 249% greater. A lag in larval supply suggested that productivity maybe affecting both the production of larvae by adults and larval survival. Our results suggest that warming temperatures in the world's oceans will have negative effects on the reproduction of reef fishes and survival of their larvae within the plankton, ultimately impacting on the replenishment of benthic populations.     

Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.

     

The effects of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events on intertidal seagrass beds over a long‐term timescale

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can cause dramatic changes in marine communities. However, we know little as to how ENSO events affect tropical seagrass beds over decadal timescales. Therefore, a diverse array of seagrass (Thalassia hemprichii) habitat types were surveyed once every 3 months for 16 years (January 2001 to February 2017) in a tropical intertidal zone that is regularly affected by both ENSO events and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. La Niña and El Niño events had distinct effects on the biomass and growth of T. hemprichii. During La Niña years, higher (a) precipitation levels and (b) seawater nitrogen concentrations led to increases in seagrass leaf productivity, canopy height, and biomass. However, the latter simultaneously stimulated the growth of periphyton on seagrass leaves; this led to decreases in seagrass cover and shoot density. More frequent La Niña events could, then, eventually lead to either a decline in intertidal seagrass beds or a shift to another, less drought‐resistant seagrass species in those regions already characterized by eutrophication due to local anthropogenic activity.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

Interannual variation in methane emissions from tropical wetlands triggered by repeated El Niño Southern Oscillation

Methane (CH₄) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH₄ emissions. Decreased wetland CH₄ emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH₄ emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process‐based model of global wetland CH₄ emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH₄ emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH₄ emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8‐month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH₄ emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH₄ emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH₄ emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH₄ concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH₄ concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.     

The interacting effects of food,spring temperature,and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long‐distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double‐brooded long‐distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark–recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late‐season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black‐throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.     

A boundary current drives synchronous growth of marine fishes across tropical and temperate latitudes

Entrainment of growth patterns of multiple species to single climatic drivers can lower ecosystem resilience and increase the risk of species extinction during stressful climatic events. However, predictions of the effects of climate change on the productivity and dynamics of marine fishes are hampered by a lack of historical data on growth patterns. We use otolith biochronologies to show that the strength of a boundary current, modulated by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, accounted for almost half of the shared variance in annual growth patterns of five of six species of tropical and temperate marine fishes across 23° of latitude (3000 km) in Western Australia. Stronger flow during La Niña years drove increased growth of five species, whereas weaker flow during El Niño years reduced growth. Our work is the first to link the growth patterns of multiple fishes with a single oceanographic/climate phenomenon at large spatial scales and across multiple climate zones, habitat types, trophic levels and depth ranges. Extreme La Niña and El Niño events are predicted to occur more frequently in the future and these are likely to have implications for these vulnerable ecosystems, such as a limited capacity of the marine taxa to recover from stressful climatic events.     

Seasonal patterns in rainforest litterfall: Detecting endogenous and environmental influences from long‐term sampling

Tropical rainforests play an important role in the storage and cycling of global terrestrial carbon. In the carbon cycle, net primary productivity of forests is linked to soil respiration through the production and decomposition of forest litter. Climate seasonality appears to influence the production of litter although there is considerable variability within and across forests that makes accurate estimates challenging. We explored the effects of climate seasonality on litterfall dynamics in a lowland humid rainforest over a 7‐year period from 2007 to 2013, including an El Niño/La Niña cycle in 2010/2011. Litterfall was sampled fortnightly in 24 traps of 0.50 m diameter within a 1‐ha forest plot. Total mean litterfall was 10.48 ± 1.32 (±SD, dry weight) Mg ha^?1 year^?1 and seasonal in distribution. The different components of litterfall were divided into L_Leaf (63.5%), L_Wood (27.7%) and L_{FF[flowers & fruit]} (8.8%), which all demonstrated seasonal dynamics. Peak falls in L_Leaf and L_Wood were highly predictable, coinciding with maximum daily temperatures and 1 and 2 months prior to maximum monthly rainfall. The El Niño/La Niña cycle coincided with elevated local winter temperatures and peak falls of L_Leaf and L_Wood. Importantly, we establish how sampling length and generalized additive models eliminate the requirement for extensive within‐site sampling when the intention is to describe dynamics in litterfall patterns. Further, a greater understanding of seasonal cycles in litterfall allows us to distinguish between endogenous controls and environmental factors, such as El Niño events, which may have significant impacts on biochemical cycles.     

Potential impacts of a future persistent El Niño or La Niña on three subspecies of Australian butterflies

One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change‐driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Niño, La Niña, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Niño (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Niña. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair‐wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life‐history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet‐ and dry‐season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Niño events increase.     

Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal‐scale climatic variation

Aim An understanding of past relationships between fire occurrence and climate variability will help to elucidate the implications of climate‐change scenarios for future patterns of wildfire. In the present study we investigate the relationships between subalpine‐zone fire occurrence and climate variability and broad‐scale climate patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans at both interannual and multidecadal time‐scales. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the southern sector of the Rocky Mountain National Park, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range. Methods We compared years of widespread fire from AD 1650 to 1978 for the subalpine zone of southern Rocky Mountain National Park, with climate variables such as measures of drought, and indices such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results Years of extensive subalpine‐zone fires are significantly related to climate variability, phases of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, as well as to phase combinations of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO at both interannual and centennial time‐scales. Main conclusions Years of extensive fires are related to extreme drought conditions and are significantly related to the La Niña phase of ENSO, the negative (cool) phase of the PDO, and the positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The co‐occurrence of the phase combination of La Niña‐negative PDO‐positive AMO is more important to fire occurrence than the individual influences of the climate patterns. Low‐frequency trends in the occurrence of this combination of climate‐pattern phases, resulting from trends in the AMO, are the primary climate pattern associated with periods of high fire occurrence (1700–89 and 1851–1919) and a fire‐free period (1790–1850). The apparent controlling influence of the AMO on drought and years of large fires in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Front Range probably applies to an extensive area of western North America.     

El Niño impacts on human-modified tropical forests: Consequences for dung beetle diversity and associated ecological processes

Our knowledge of how tropical forest biodiversity and functioning respond to anthropogenic and climate-associated stressors is limited. Research exploring El Niño impacts are scarce or based on single post-disturbance assessments, and few studies assess forests previously affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Focusing on dung beetles and associated ecological functions, we assessed (a) the ecological effects of a strong El Niño, (b) if post-El Niño beetle responses were influenced by previous forest disturbance, and (c) how these responses compare between forests impacted only by drought and those affected by both drought and fires. We sampled 30 Amazonian forest plots distributed across a gradient of human disturbance in 2010, 2016, and 2017—approximately 5 years before, and 3–6 and 15–18 months after the 2015–16 El Niño. We found 14,451 beetles from 98 species and quantified the beetle-mediated dispersal of >8,600 seed mimics and the removal of c. 30 kg of dung. All dung beetle responses (species richness, abundance, biomass, compositional similarity to pre-El Niño condition, and rates of dung removal and seed dispersal) declined after the 2015–16 El Niño, but the greatest immediate losses (i.e., in 2016) were observed within fire-affected forests. Previous forest disturbance also influenced post-El Niño dung beetle species richness, abundance, and species composition. We demonstrate that dung beetles and their ecological functions are negatively affected by climate-associated disturbances in human-modified Amazonian forests and suggest that the interaction between local anthropogenic and climate-related stressors merits further investigation.     

El Niño and dry season rainfall influence hostplant phenology and an annual butterfly migration from Neotropical wet to dry forests

We censused butterflies flying across the Panama Canal at Barro Colorado Island (BCI) for 16 years and butterfly hostplants for 8 years to address the question: What environmental factors influence the timing and magnitude of migrating Aphrissa statira butterflies? The peak migration date was earlier when the wet season began earlier and when soil moisture content in the dry season preceding the migration was higher. The peak migration date was also positively associated with peak leaf flushing of one hostplant (Callichlamys latifolia) but not another (Xylophragma seemannianum). The quantity of migrants was correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which influenced April soil moisture on BCI and total rainfall in the dry season. Both hostplant species responded to El Niño with greater leaf flushing, and the number of adults deriving from or laying eggs on those new leaves was greatest during El Niño years. The year 1993 was exceptional in that the number of butterflies migrating was lower than predicted by the El Niño event, yet the dry season was unusually wet for an El Niño year as well. Thus, dry season rainfall appears to be a primary driver of larval food production and population outbreaks for A. statira. Understanding how global climate cycles and local weather influence tropical insect migrations improves the predictability of ecological effects of climate change.     

The Effect of Habitat Association and Edaphic Conditions on Tree Mortality during El Niño‐induced Drought in a Bornean Dipterocarp Forest

The effects of El Niño‐induced droughts on dipterocarp forests must be quantified to evaluate the implications of future global climatic changes for the tropical forests of Southeast Asia. We studied the mortality of trees ≥ 1 cm in diameter in a lowland dipterocarp forest in Borneo before, during, and after the 1997/1998 El Niño drought. The annual mortality rates were 1.30, 1.75, and 1.66 percent/yr for the pre‐drought, drought, and post‐drought periods, respectively. The effect of drought was tree size‐dependent being greater for larger trees. Modified logistic regression analysis revealed a significant interaction effect between species' habitat association and edaphic condition on mortality rates in all periods. For species associated with wet habitat, drought effect was greater in dry conditions than in wet conditions, in both the drought and post‐drought periods. The mortality rates of dry‐habitat species were less affected by the drought both in dry and wet conditions. A similar pattern was also found in common Dipterocarpaceae species; mortality rates increased more in species associated with wet‐habitat in the drought and post‐drought periods. Species and families with higher mortality in the pre‐drought period tended to experience greater mortality increases during the drought and post‐drought periods. These results suggest that changes in drought regimes alter the species composition and spatial distribution of dipterocarp forests.     

The effects of El Niño–La Niña on reproductive parameters of elephant seals feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea

Aim To assess the impacts of El Niño–La Niña events on the pup weaning mass and diet of female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, and to understand the ecological processes that drive these impacts. Location Atlantic southern elephant seal weaning mass and diet were measured at King George Island (62º14′ S, 58º30′ W). Feeding areas for pregnant female seals from King George Island are located west of Alexander Island in the Bellingshausen Sea. Methods Data on weaning mass were collected between 1985 and 1994 during the breeding season (September–November). Moulting females were anaesthetized and cephalopod beaks were isolated and identified from stomach contents obtained from stomach lavages. Sea‐surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data for the ‘El Niño 3.4’ geographical region (5º N–5º S, 120º W–170º W) were used to define El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event years (grouped as El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) as well as the strength of each ENSO event year. Using data from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction, temperature, sea ice concentration and atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were calculated from March to August, corresponding to the feeding period of pregnant female seals. Results Positive temperature anomalies and negative pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were observed during La Niña years and negative temperature anomalies and positive pressure anomalies during El Niño years. These data correlate with sea ice concentration anomalies, which are highly negative during La Niña years and highly positive during El Niño years. Warm temperature conditions in the Bellingshausen Sea during La Niña years are strongly related to both higher weaning mass in elephant seals and to an increase in squid beaks in the stomach contents of females. Main conclusions It is possible that higher elephant seal weaning masses in La Niña years correlate with warmer waters in the Bellingshausen Sea leading to the rapid growth of squid and their more frequent descents to depths frequented by elephant seals. This results in increased predation by pregnant females, leading to a greater mass among weaned pups. This hypothesis may guide future research about interactions between climate and the marine biosphere.     

Analysis of Four Macroalgal Assemblages along the Pacific Mexican Coast during and after the 1997–98 El Niño

We examined the changes in four intertidal macroalgal assemblages sampled at 3-month intervals during and after the 1997–98 El Niño. The assemblages were analyzed using several numerical analyses (specific richness, H′ diversity) and multivariate techniques (ANOSIM, cluster, and MDS analyses). During El Niño 1997–98, the water temperature in the sampled zone was almost 5°C above the long-term mean. The apparent impact of this factor was greatest in winter–spring 1998. Our results suggest that El Niño influenced the structure of these assemblages in four different ways: (a) El Niño was associated with number of species (lowest in 1998) and H′ diversity, which increased in the winter of 1999, when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was inactive, from 1.2 to 2.3. (b) The average biomass of the macroalgae was significantly greater in the ENSO year (139 g dry weight/m²) than in the non-ENSO year (42 g dry weight/m²) (c) El Niño conditions were associated with a high population abundance of species of tropical affinity, such as Agardhiella tenera (22.05 g dry weight/m² in 1998 versus 0.7 g dry weight/m² in 1999), Amphiroa misakiensis (32 versus 1.1), Caulerpa sertularoides (15.35 versus 0), Padina durvillaei (9.2 versus 0.2), Jania capillacea (4.1 versus 0), and Jania mexicana (1.5 versus 0). In 1999, other species with a more temperate affinity appeared, such as Laurencia pacifica (0.12 versus 8.76 g/m²) and Colpomenia sinuosa (0 versus 4.8). (d) The multivariate techniques showed that differences among the structure of the four assemblages were more evident in 1999. The greatest homogeneity was detected during ENSO winter–spring, which suggests a communitywide change consistent with the El Niño event.     

The impact of El Niño events on the pelagic food chain in the northern California Current

The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid‐rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to 10 tropical El Niño events. Measurable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven of 10 of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to 2 months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) events, but delayed (lag of 2–8 months) following ‘Modoki’ Central Pacific (CP) events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current.     

Observed relationships between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation,rainfall variability and vegetation and fire history on Halmahera,Maluku, Indonesia

A temporally high‐resolution palynological study of the uppermost section of core MD98‐2180 from Kau Bay, Halmahera, Indonesia, provides a vegetation and fire record covering the last 250 years. The record is compared with the Maluku Rainfall Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern hemisphere winter sea surface temperatures (SST) for the central Pacific Ocean based on instrumental data, as well as reconstructions of the SOI and the central Pacific SST and historically recorded El Niño events. The results show that significant El Niño events are generally associated with increased representation of Dipterocarpaceae pollen, probably reflecting the mass‐flowering of this taxon during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts, and elevated charcoal levels, reflecting a greater incidence of fires during these extremely dry periods, while humid phases show increased fern numbers. Our findings demonstrate that pollen records ‘ecological’ in scale can provide useful additional proxy records of ENSO events.     

Age‐specific recruitment and natality of California sea lions at San Miguel Island,California

We conducted a 15 yr mark‐resight study of branded California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) at San Miguel Island, California, to estimate age‐specific recruitment and natality of the population. We used the Schwarz and Stobo model to estimate sighting, survival, recruitment, timing of births, abundance, and age‐specific natality from sighting histories of 1,276 parous females. The advantage of this approach was that the reproductive status of females did not have to be known for all females of reproductive age. Probability of recruitment into the reproductive population began at age 3 or 4, peaked between ages 5 and 7, and slowly declined. Age‐specific natality was similar for ages 4–16 but declined after age 17, suggesting that reproductive senescence occurs in older females. The average annual natality for parous females 4–16 yr of age was 0.77 (SE = 0.03); natality declined to 0.56 (SE = 0.10) for parous females 17–21 yr of age. Natality for both age classes was reduced during El Niño conditions by 24% and 34%, respectively. In addition to reducing natality, El Niño events may result in a delay of recruitment if females experience El Niño conditions before they turn 4 yr of age.     

Protistan plankton communities in the Galápagos Archipelago respond to changes in deep water masses resulting from the 2015/16 El Niño

The Galápagos Archipelago lies within the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean at the convergence of major ocean currents that are subject to changes in circulation. The nutrient-rich Equatorial Undercurrent upwells from the west onto the Galápagos platform, stimulating primary production, but this source of deep water weakens during El Niño events. Based on measurements from repeat cruises, the 2015/16 El Niño was associated with declines in phytoplankton biomass at most sites throughout the archipelago and reduced utilization of nitrate, particularly in large-sized phytoplankton in the western region. Protistan assemblages were identified by sequencing the V4 region of the 18S rRNA gene. Dinoflagellates, chlorophytes and diatoms dominated most sites. Shifts in dinoflagellate communities were most apparent between the years; parasitic dinoflagellates, Syndiniales, were highly detected during the El Niño (2015) while the dinoflagellate genus, Gyrodinium, increased at many sites during the neutral period (2016). Variations in protistan communities were most strongly correlated with changes in subthermocline water density. These findings indicate that marine protistan communities in this region are regimented by deep water mass sources and thus could be profoundly affected by altered ocean circulation.