Dispersal, spatial scale, and species diversity in a hierarchically structured experimental landscape

Although there has been growing interest in the effect of dispersal on species diversity, much remains unknown about how dispersal occurring at multiple scales influences diversity. We used an experimental microbial landscape to determine whether dispersal occurring at two different scales - among local communities and among metacommunities - affects diversity differently. At the local scale, dispersal initially had a positive effect and subsequently a neutral effect on diversity, whereas at the metacommunity and landscape scales, dispersal showed a consistently negative effect. The timing in which dispersal affected beta diversity also differed sharply between local communities and metacommunities. These patterns were explained by scale- and time-dependent effects of dispersal in allowing spread of species and in removing spatial refuges from predators. Our results suggest that the relative contribution of opposing mechanisms by which dispersal affects diversity changes considerably over time and space in hierarchical landscapes in which dispersal occurs at multiple scales.     

Male dispersal patterns in white-faced capuchins, Cebus capucinus: Part 2: patterns and causes of secondary dispersal

Male dispersal from the birth group is common in the majority of social mammals, and in many species, males also engage in secondary or breeding dispersal following natal emigration. However, the patterns and causes of secondary dispersal are poorly understood due to the difficulty in following emigrants. Here, we detail the patterns and causation of male secondary dispersal in several groups of white-faced capuchins observed between 1985 and 2000 in Santa Rosa National Park, Costa Rica. Subsequent to natal emigration, which occurs between 2 and 8 years of age (median 4.5 years), male white-faced capuchins embark on a life of continual movement. Although males of all age classes engage in voluntary secondary dispersal, the ways by which males enter groups varies according to their age class. Adult males (≥10 years old) are more likely to enter groups aggressively, and they display longer tenure than either subadult males (7-10 years of age) or juvenile males (1-7 years of age). Given our finding that adult males face the highest risks in terms of aggressive interactions with conspecifics, we examined several explanations as to why they continue to disperse throughout their lives. Our data best support the intragroup mating competition hypothesis for secondary dispersal, whereby males move frequently between groups as a means of increasing their reproductive opportunities. Males may also engage in frequent secondary dispersal to avoid mating with their maturing daughters, although this hypothesis was not strongly supported by the current data. Males of all age classes displayed very high levels of parallel dispersal, which probably serves to offset the high costs of dispersal (predation, starvation and/or aggression from conspecifics) and it may also serve as a means of retaining kinship among group males.     

Single species models with logistic growth and dissymmetric impulse dispersal

In this paper, two classes of single-species models with logistic growth and impulse dispersal (or migration) are studied: one model class describes dissymmetric impulsive bi-directional dispersal between two heterogeneous patches; and the other presents a new way of characterizing the aggregate migration of a natural population between two heterogeneous habitat patches, which alternates in direction periodically. In this theoretical study, some very general, weak conditions for the permanence, extinction of these systems, existence, uniqueness and global stability of positive periodic solutions are established by using analysis based on the theory of discrete dynamical systems. From this study, we observe that the dynamical behavior of populations with impulsive dispersal differs greatly from the behavior of models with continuous dispersal. Unlike models where the dispersal is continuous in time, in which the travel losses associated with dispersal make it difficult for such dispersal to evolve e.g., [25], [26], [28], in the present study it was relatively easy for impulsive dispersal to positively affect populations when realistic parameter values were used, and a rich variety of behaviors were possible. From our results, we found impulsive dispersal seems to more nicely model natural dispersal behavior of populations and may be more relevant to the investigation of such behavior in real ecological systems.     

Spatial genetic structure of Simarouba amara Aubl. (Simaroubaceae), a dioecious, animal-dispersed Neotropical tree, on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Simarouba amara (Simaroubaceae) is a vertebrate-dispersed, insect-pollinated Neotropical tree found in lowland moist forest from upper Mesoamerica to the Amazon basin. We assessed the spatial genetic structure of S. amara within the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island in the Republic of Panama. A total of 300 individuals were genotyped using five microsatellite loci, representing 100 individuals with a dbh>or=10 cm, 100 individuals of 1-10 cm dbh, and 100 individuals of <1 cm dbh. The 200 individuals in the two larger size classes were also genotyped with 155 AFLP loci. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran's Index detected significant genotypic association at the smallest distance classes for 1-10 cm dbh (0-20 m) and >10 cm dbh (0-40 m) size categories. Significant spatial autocorrelations were detected over larger scales (0-140 m) in <1 cm dbh individuals. The relatively weak genetic structure of S. amara, in comparison to other recent studies, may be explained by pollen and seed dispersal over the 50 ha plot, overlapping seed shadows, and postrecruitment mortality.     

Social Mating System and Sex-Biased Dispersal in Mammals and Birds: A Phylogenetic Analysis

The hypothesis that patterns of sex-biased dispersal are related to social mating system in mammals and birds has gained widespread acceptance over the past 30 years. However, two major complications have obscured the relationship between these two behaviors: 1) dispersal frequency and dispersal distance, which measure different aspects of the dispersal process, have often been confounded, and 2) the relationship between mating system and sex-biased dispersal in these vertebrate groups has not been examined using modern phylogenetic comparative methods. Here, we present a phylogenetic analysis of the relationship between mating system and sex-biased dispersal in mammals and birds. Results indicate that the evolution of female-biased dispersal in mammals may be more likely on monogamous branches of the phylogeny, and that females may disperse farther than males in socially monogamous mammalian species. However, we found no support for a relationship between social mating system and sex-biased dispersal in birds when the effects of phylogeny are taken into consideration. We caution that although there are larger-scale behavioral differences in mating system and sex-biased dispersal between mammals and birds, mating system and sex-biased dispersal are far from perfectly associated within these taxa.     

An explicit approach to evolutionarily stable dispersal strategies: no cost of dispersal

The evolution of dispersal is examined by looking at evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) for dispersal parameters in discrete time multisite models without any cost of dispersal. ESS are investigated analytically, based on explicit results on sensitivity analysis of matrix models. The basic model considers an arbitrary number of sites and a single age class. An ESS for dispersal parameters is obtained when the spatial reproductive values, calculated at the density-dependent population equilibrium, are equal across sites. From this basic formulation, one derives equivalently that all local populations should be at equilibrium in the absence of migration, and that dispersal between sites should be balanced, i.e., the numbers of individuals arriving to and leaving a site are equal. These results are then generalized to a model with several age classes. Equal age-specific reproductive values do not however imply balanced dispersal in this case. Our results generalize to any number of sites and age classes those available ?M. Doebeli, Dispersal and dynamics, Theoret. Popul. 47 (1995) 82 for two sites and one age class.     

Behaviour controls post-settlement dispersal by the juvenile bivalves Austrovenus stutchburyi and Macomona liliana

Post-settlement dispersal is a key process affecting the population dynamics of many soft sediment benthic invertebrates. Despite its importance, few studies have quantified those factors that influence juvenile dispersal. In a laboratory flume, we examined the effects of three flow velocities and two substrate types on the dispersal of two common intertidal bivalves: the deposit-feeding wedge shell Macomona liliana and the suspension-feeding cockle Austrovenus stutchburyi. Juveniles of three size classes (<2, 2-4 and 4-8 mm shell length) were added to cores of defaunated natural sediment or glass beads. We recorded the number of bivalves remaining in cores versus those recovered downstream either on the flume floor, in bedload traps or in a plankton net at the end of the working section of the flume after 48 h at three freestream velocities (4.8, 11.0 and 16.6 cm s⁻¹). At flow speeds of 4.8 cm s⁻¹, <5% of individuals were recovered outside the cores for both species. At higher flows, the dispersal mode (crawling, bedload or in suspension) and frequency of dispersal differed markedly between species. Austrovenus dispersed primarily by crawling in the low flow treatments. The frequency of dispersal increased substantially (2-6×) between 11.0 and 16.6 cm s⁻¹, and most Austrovenus were found in bedload traps at the highest flow. At the highest flow, twice as many Austrovenus individuals left the glass bead treatment as from the natural sediment. The number of dispersing Macomona also increased with increasing flow from the natural sediment, but numbers dispersing from glass beads were similar for the two higher flows (11.0 and 16.6 cm s⁻¹). Macomona dispersal mode was associated with size; smaller size classes were collected in the bedload traps and the plankton net in approximately equal proportions, while only a small proportion of the largest size class were collected in the plankton net. In contrast to flume dispersal experiments with live bivalves, most dead Austrovenus did not move at the highest flow speed, while most dead Macomona were transported at the highest flow speed. The live-dead comparisons, in conjunction with our primary experimental results, imply that there are active behavioural components to both water column and bedload transport. Our research emphasises that both species actively influence post-settlement transport in response to both substrate type and flow regime, and that bedload transport, often categorised as a passive transport process, is also greatly influenced by active behavioural processes.     

Scale and state dependence of the relationship between personality and dispersal in a great tit population

1. Dispersal is a key process in population biology and ecology. Although the general ecological conditions that lead to dispersal have been well studied, the causes of individual variation in dispersal are less well understood. A number of recent studies suggest that heritable temperament - or personality - traits are correlated with dispersal in the wild but the extent to which these 'personality-dispersal syndromes' are general, how they depend on an individual's state and on spatial scale and whether they are temporally stable, both within and across individuals, remains unclear. 2. Here, we examine the relationship between exploration behaviour - an axis of personality that appears to be important in animals generally - and a variety of dispersal processes over 6 years in a population of the great tit Parus major. 3. Exploration behaviour was higher in immigrant than in locally born juveniles, but the difference was much larger for individuals with a small body mass, though independent of sex, representing one of the first examples of a state-dependent effect in a personality-dispersal syndrome. 4. Despite a temporal trend in exploration behaviour at the population level, the difference between immigrants and locally born birds remained stable over time, both across and within individuals. This suggests that the personality difference between immigrants and locally born birds is established early in development, but that the process of immigration interacts with both personality and state. 5. We found that the number of immigrant parents a locally born bird had did not influence exploration behaviour, suggesting either the difference between immigrants and residents was environmental or that the effect is overridden by local environmental sources of variation. 6. In contrast to previous work, we found no evidence for links between personality and natal dispersal distance within the population, either in terms of an individual's own exploration behaviour or that of its parents. 7. Our results suggest that there are links between individual differences in personality and dispersal, but that these can be dependent on differences in state among individuals and on the scale over which dispersal is measured. Future work should aim to understand the differences between dispersal within and between populations and the ways in which personality and state interact to determine the outcome of these processes.     

Scaling of colonization processes in streams: Parallels and lessons from marine hard substrata

Abstract Understanding colonization processes specifically requires a comprehensive understanding of the frequency and scales over which dispersal occurs, which in turn determines the degree of linkage within and between populations and possibly results in metapopulation structure. What is our level of such knowledge for stream systems? We examine colonization processes in streams using a framework produced by analogous literature on sessile, marine species, which are comparatively well-known and may provide insights for stream biota. For simplicity, we separate dispersal into two, somewhat artificial scales: microscale (between habitat patches - cm to m) and mesoscale (between groups of patches - tens to thousands of metres), and consider dispersal links between them. Traditional views on dispersal developed similarly in both systems, with a strong initial focus on mesoscale dispersal followed by an awareness that some species do not disperse usually over these scales and that there are a wide range of dispersal profiles. In both habitats, there are few data on actual dispersal distances, and longevities are sometimes used to infer them instead. Organisms can be transported by water currents (marine larvae, stream larvae) or wind (adult insects), the directions and strengths of which are relatively predictable at mesoscales. However, behavioural choices of organisms during dispersal can change their potential dispersal distances and directions markedly. Additionally, predictability of transport processes at microscales is very poor. As a consequence, simple, lone biological measures (like longevity) or simple, lone physical measures (like discharge) are useless for predicting dispersal frequencies and scales in most cases. Mortality during dispersal is also extremely important but there are few data; this represents a major information gap in both sets of literature. Finally, if organisms end dispersal by searching for and being able to respond to specific cues, then we may be able to predict colonization by looking at the distribution of such cues; different cues are likely though to vary greatly in space and time. There is potential for dispersal ‘structure’ to develop in rivers of different hydrology, and for sets of correlated life-history characters to result in dispersal at particular scales, but there are very few stream studies that bear on these issues unambiguously. Progress in understanding the scales of dispersal, in both habitats, will require a lot more studies designed formally to test clear hypotheses about the scales of dispersal, rather than continuing a status quo of generating essentially anecdotal information     

Does seed retention potential affect the distribution of plant species in highly fragmented calcareous grasslands?

Long-distance dispersal is a crucial factor in the life-cycle of plants, especially in our modern, highly fragmented landscapes. Because natural herds of large animals have disappeared and grazing practices have been abandoned, important potential vectors for seed dispersal over large distances may have been lost. In the context of the re-establishment of grazing management for nature conservation purposes, it is therefore important to gain insight in the ability of grazing animals to act as seed dispersal vectors. Whereas local dispersal mainly occurs through standard vectors typically described based on morphological adaptations of the diaspore, large herbivores act as non-standard seed dispersers. Therefore, traditional dispersal classes are loosing scientific relevance and continuous predictors of dispersal potential have been proposed. Here, we explored whether dispersal related plant traits, including the "seed retention potential", could explain the distribution patterns of 180 plant species over 64 fragmented semi-natural calcareous grasslands in Belgium. The distribution of habitat specialist plant species was strongly determined by the degree of isolation of the grasslands. Interestingly, species distribution patterns were clearly linked with a species' potential to migrate through large grazers, as quantified by its retention potential: species producing seeds with high retention capacity were less affected by habitat isolation. Categorical dispersal classes based on seed morphology did not explain a species' response to fragment isolation. Although seed retention potential outperformed simple seed dimensional traits, plant height, which is an indicator of epizoochorous attachment potential, was even more important. Therefore we suggest further extension of the epizoochorous retention potential model by incorporating basic ecological mechanisms that effectively contribute to successful dispersal events.     

Genetic differentiation within and between two habitats.

We investigate the usefulness of analyses of population differentiation between different ecological types, such as host races of parasites or sources and sink habitats. To that aim, we formulate a model of population structure involving two classes of subpopulations found in sympatry. Extensions of previous results for Wright''s F-statistics in island and isolation-by-distance models of dispersal are given. It is then shown that source and sinks cannot in general be distinguished by F-statistics nor by their gene diversities. The excess differentiation between two partially isolated classes with respect to differentiation within classes is shown to decrease with distance, and for a wide range of parameter values it should be difficult to detect. In the same circumstances little differentiation will be observed in "hierarchical" analyses between pools of samples from each habitat, and differences between levels of differentiation within each habitat will only reflect differences between levels of gene diversity within each habitat. Exceptions will indicate strong isolation between the different classes or habitat-related divergent selection.     

Competing populations on fragmented landscapes with spatially structured heterogeneities: improved landscape generation and mixed dispersal strategies

Interactions between two species competing for space were studied using stochastic spatially explicit lattice-based simulations as well as pair approximations. The two species differed only in their dispersal strategies, which were characterized by the proportion of reproductive effort allocated to long-distance (far) dispersal versus short-distance (near) dispersal to adjacent sites. All population dynamics took place on landscapes with spatially clustered distributions of suitable habitat, described by two parameters specifying the amount and the local spatial autocorrelation of suitable habitat. Whereas previous results indicated that coexistence between pure near and far dispersers was very rare, taking place over only a very small region of the landscape parameter space, when mixed strategies are allowed, multiple strategies can coexist over a much wider variety of landscapes. On such spatially structured landscapes, the populations can partition the habitat according to local conditions, with one species using pure near dispersal to exploit large contiguous patches of suitable habitat, and another species using mixed dispersal to colonize isolated smaller patches (via far dispersal) and then rapidly exploit those patches (via near dispersal). An improved mean-field approximation which incorporates the spatially clustered habitat distribution is developed for modeling a single species on these landscapes, along with an improved Monte Carlo algorithm for generating spatially clustered habitat distributions.      

Vascular plant diversity in eastern Asia and North America: historical and ecological explanations

Taxonomic diversity of vascular plants (ferns, gymnosperms and angiosperms) was compared between eastern Asia and North America. Eastern Asia has significantly higher species richness in all three classes but the difference was greatest in ferns and least in angiosperms. Differences in taxonomic treatments between the two continents are not likely contributors to these patterns. The relationship of regional to global species richness across the three plant classes suggested that diversity patterns were relatively homogeneous at three taxonomic levels. Thus, differences in species richness are established at the family level and are therefore relatively old. The previously noted fact that eastern Asia has a higher proportion of primitive taxa was shown by analyses both among and within plant classes. Diversity patterns across three taxonomic levels (i.e. family, genus and species) of the three classes may reflect the relative historical positions of the two continents (following continental drift) to the centre(s) of their origin, neighbouring land masses, differential speciation/extinction rates, and switches in dominance levels associated with climate change (including glaciation), as well as reproductive/dispersal mechanisms of the three plant classes.     

Philopatry in the alpine grasshopper, Podisma pedestris: a novel experimental and analytical method

Abstract.

• 1 Local dispersal and philopatric behaviour of the alpine grasshopper, Podisma pedestris, were studied at two sites in the Alpes Maritimes using a new mark—release—resight technique featuring marking in situ, and multiple resighting without handling. The time-consuming nature of the design was justified by the quantity and quality of the data yielded.
• 2 Philopatry is defined independently of any concept of home range as a phenomenon by which movements over longer periods are less than would be expected by extrapolation of measures over shorter periods.
• 3 By this definition, the grasshoppers are shown to exhibit philopatry. Nymphs comprise two heterogenous classes of those which move little and those which move considerable distances.
• 4 Daily dispersal estimates were obtained from movements of 1055 nymphs and adults at one site, and of 593 adults at another.
• 5 Differences are demonstrated in daily dispersal distances for age, sex and site combinations.
• 6 Some differences in microhabitat preference were observed.
• 7 The findings are compared with previous measurements of dispersal in this species, and the merits of the new technique are discussed.

     

Seed dispersal distance classes and dispersal modes for the European flora

Motivation

Although dispersal ability is one of the key features determining the spatial dynamics of plant populations and the structure of plant communities, it is also one of the traits for which we still lack data for most species. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of seed dispersal distance classes and predominant dispersal modes for most European vascular plants. Our seed dispersal dataset can be used in functional biogeography, dynamic vegetation modelling and ecological studies at local to continental scales.

Main Types of Variables Contained

Species were classified into seven ordered classes with similar dispersal distances estimated based on the predominant dispersal mode, the morphology of dispersal units (diaspores or propagules), life form, plant height, seed mass, habitat and known dispersal by humans. We evaluated our results by comparing them with dispersal distances calculated using the ‘dispeRsal’ function in R.

Spatial Location

Europe.

Time Period

Present.

Major Taxa and Level of Measurement

The seed dispersal dataset contains information on dispersal distance classes and the predominant dispersal mode for 10,327 most frequent and locally dominant European vascular plant species.

Software Format

Data are available in .csv format.     

Spatial genetic structure in two congeneric epiphytes with different dispersal strategies analysed by three different methods

Three different approaches were used to assess the kinship structure of two epiphytic bryophytes, Orthotrichum speciosum and O. obtusifolium, that have different dispersal strategies. The two species were sampled in a 200 ha landscape where species occurrence and host trees had been mapped previously. Local environmental conditions at sampled trees were recorded and kinship between individuals was calculated based on amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP)-marker data. We did not detect any association between AFLP-markers and investigated environmental conditions. In both species, significant kinship coefficients were found between individuals up to 300-350 m apart which shows that both species have a restricted dispersal range. The spatial kinship structure was detected with both autocorrelation analysis and generalized additive models (GAMs), but linear regression failed to detect any structure in O. speciosum. Although the dioecious O. obtusifolium is currently the more common species it may, none the less, due to its restricted dispersal range and reproduction mode, become threatened in the future by current silvicultural practices which enhance the distance between host trees and decrease their life span. Finally, GAMs seem most appropriate for analysing spatial genetic structure because the effects of local environmental conditions and spatial structure can be analysed simultaneously, no assumption of a parametric form between kinship coefficient and distance is required, and spatial data resolution is not lost in the arbitrary choice of distance classes characterizing autocorrelation analysis.     

Body condition dependent dispersal in a heterogeneous environment

We find the evolutionarily stable dispersal behaviour of a population that inhabits a heterogeneous environment where patches differ in safety (the probability that a juvenile individual survives until reproduction) and productivity (the total competitive weight of offspring produced by the local individual), assuming that these characteristics do not change over time. The body condition of clonally produced offspring varies within and between families. Offspring compete for patches in a weighted lottery, and dispersal is driven by kin competition. Survival during dispersal may depend on body condition, and competitive ability increases with increasing body condition. The evolutionarily stable strategy predicts that families abandon patches which are too unsafe or do not produce enough successful dispersers. From families that invest in retaining their natal patches, individuals stay in the patch that are less suitable for dispersal whereas the better dispersers disperse. However, this clear within-family pattern is often not reflected in the population-wide body condition distribution of dispersers or non-dispersers. This may be an explanation why empirical data do not show any general relationship between body condition and dispersal. When all individuals are equally good dispersers, then there exist equivalence classes defined by the competitive weight that remains in a patch. An equivalence class consists of infinitely many dispersal strategies that are selectively neutral. This provides an explanation why very diverse patterns found in body condition dependent dispersal data can all be equally evolutionarily stable.     

Irradiation does not affect field dispersal ability in the West Indian sweetpotato weevil, Euscepes postfasciatus

The effect of irradiation on the dispersal ability of males and females of the flightless West Indian sweetpotato weevil, Euscepes postfasciatus (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a major sweet potato pest, was examined in the field using mark–release–recapture techniques. To evaluate the dispersal ability of the weevil, we released 7 619 weevils in two replicates (July and August 2007). Each replicate lasted 5 days from release to sampling and consisted of one weevil release and two weevil samplings. Thirty-two traps were placed in lines corresponding to eight compass directions and in four distance classes (8, 12, 16, and 20 m) in each replicate. We captured 709 (9.3%) weevils in the two replicates. Weevils dispersed at least 20 m from the release point in 2 days, regardless of sex or irradiation. Dispersal was strongly affected by wind direction, and in both replicates most weevils were recaptured in upwind directions. The mean dispersal distance for non-irradiated weevils was about 11 m per 2 days. Although there were some differences between sexes in recapture rate and dispersal distance, there was no consistent difference between irradiated and non-irradiated weevils in dispersal distance. We conclude that irradiation does not affect the dispersal ability of flightless E. postfasciatus in the field.     

Female philopatry and male-biased dispersal in a direct-developing salamander, Plethodon cinereus

The local resource competition hypothesis and the local mate competition hypothesis were developed based on avian and mammalian systems to explain sex-biased dispersal. Most avian species show a female bias in dispersal, ostensibly due to resource defence, and most mammals show a male bias, ostensibly due to male-male competition. These findings confound phylogeny with mating strategy; little is known about sex-biased dispersal in other taxa. Resource defence and male-male competition are both intense in Plethodon cinereus, a direct-developing salamander, so we tested whether sex-biased dispersal in this amphibian is consistent with the local resource competition hypothesis (female-biased) or the local mate competition hypothesis (male-biased). Using fine-scale genetic spatial autocorrelation analyses, we found that females were philopatric, showing significant positive genetic structure in the shortest distance classes, with stronger patterns apparent when only territorial females were tested. Males showed no spatial genetic structure over the shortest distances. Mark-recapture observations of P. cinereus over 5 years were consistent with the genetic data: males dispersed farther than females during natal dispersal and 44% of females were recaptured within 1 m of their juvenile locations. We conclude that, in this population of a direct-developing amphibian, females are philopatric and dispersal is male-biased, consistent with the local mate competition hypothesis.     

MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Aim Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distributions using models based on ecological niche theory, but most of them have ignored dispersal‐limitations, assuming dispersal to be either unlimited or null. Depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under‐ or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of ‘potentially suitable’ and ‘potentially colonizable’ habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed Mig Clim, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. Mig Clim implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, landscape fragmentation or long‐distance dispersal. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using our Mig Clim model, several simulations were run for two virtual species by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the 100‐year period 2001–2100 and three different IPCC‐based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Results of dispersal‐limited projections were compared with unlimited and no‐dispersal projections. Results Our simulations indicate that: (1) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using Mig Clim can differ significantly (up to more than 95% difference in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (2) this divergence increases under more extreme climate warming scenarios and over longer time periods; and (3) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be as large as the one related to dispersal parameters. Main conclusions Accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections of species distribution under climate change scenarios.