Host fragmentation and helminth parasites: Hedging your bets against extinction

We consider the probability of parasite extinction due to anthropogenic fragmentation of host populations and in the absence of host extinction. We conclude that extinction at infrapopulation and infracommunity levels is both common and trivial. Extinction may occur in communities at higher levels but only if metapopulations or suprapopulations become extinct. Suprapopulations are highly complex and unlikely to become extinct in the face of simple host fragmentation. We acknowledge parasite metapopulations as being the most likely to become extinct, but only locally. Our reasoning for this is that, in the absence of complete host extinction, populations of the parasite in other fragments are likely to serve as sources for reinvasion (e.g. a rescue effect). We identify a number of features that may act as hedges against extinction for many parasites and conclude by attempting to identify what form an extinction might take.     

全球变化与野生物种:观测和预测

由于人类活动的影响,世界正在变暖。迅速的全球变化很可能对野生物种产生巨大影响,同时伴随着城市化、农垦和造林实践所引起的自然生境的丧失和破坏。观测和预测的气候变化对野生物种的影响着眼于4个方面：生活史的时间、物种分布与种群格局、迁移对策以及重要地点。许多物种可能因气候的变化而灭绝,而气候变化所造成的野生物种分布的变化很可能对人类产生长期久远的影响。     

On predicting extinction in simple population models. I. Stochastic linearization

The technique of stochastic linearization derived by Bartlett is used to give an approximate solution to each of three stochastic models of predation. By defining the existence of a quasi-stationary equilibrium distribution of population sizes, the approximate variances and covariances of the joint distribution of population sizes are calculated. The results are used to predict whether prey or predators are likely to become extinct first and the predictions are tested against simulation data. The linearization technique is a good predictor of the outcome of extinction but not of how long it takes.     

SEARCHING FOR EVOLUTIONARY PATTERNS IN THE SHAPE OF A PHYLOGENETIC TREE

If all species in a clade are equally likely to speciate or become extinct, then highly symmetric and highly asymmetric phylogenetic trees are unlikely to result. Variation between species in speciation and extinction rates can cause excessive asymmetry. We developed six non-parametric statistical tests that test for nonrandom patterns of branching in any bifurcating tree. The tests are demonstrated by applying them to two published phylogenies for genera of beetles. Comparison of the power of the six statistics under a simple model of biased speciation suggests which of them may be most useful for detecting nonrandom tree shapes.     

Causes and consequences of small population size for a specialist parasitoid wasp

The parasitoid wasp Cotesia melitaearum lives in extremely small extinction-prone populations in the Åland islands of southwest Finland. Intensive observational data from two generations, a laboratory competition experiment, and 8 years of survey data were used to measure the causes, extent and consequences of small population size for this parasitoid. In the spring generations of 1999 and of 2000 we observed 21 out of 23 and 26 populations respectively, ranging in size from 2 to 103 parasitoid cocoons. Within these populations the fraction of individuals surviving to adulthood decreased with increasing parasitoid population size. The largest source of mortality was predation (44%) followed by parasitism (20%) and unknown causes (10%). In the field about 30% of the host butterfly larvae are parasitized by a competing parasitoid, Hyposoter horticola. A laboratory competition experiment showed that C. melitaearum eggs died when laid in post-diapause host larvae occupied by H. horticola. Consequently one-third of the progeny of the over-wintering generation of C. melitaearum from the field die as a result of larval competition. The survey of host and parasitoid population dynamics over 8 years showed that extinction of local host butterfly populations occupied by the parasitoid was not associated with current parasitoid population size. Over the same period small parasitoid populations were more likely to become extinct than large populations. However, parasitoid population size was not related to parasitoid extinction when the host also became extinct. These data suggest that the parasitoid populations are kept small through the action of natural enemies and competitors, some of which are density dependent. Local populations are so small that they become extinct frequently and rarely measurably affect the population dynamics of their host. It is likely that this parasitoid persists in Åland because of the spatial asynchrony of local population dynamics.     

Population status of insects of Plecoptera order in Sierra Nevada National Park in Venezuela and its implications for conservation planning

Longitudinal distribution of Plecoptera species were examined along the Sierra Nevada National Park in the Andean region of Merida State, Venezuela. PNSN is one of the largest protected areas and consists of two major sub-basins. Quantitative samples were collected in 7 river tributaries along the PNSN from February to May of 2009, and a total of 135 individuals and 4 species of the genus Anacroneuria were collected. Only three rivers (Nuestra Se?ora, La Picón y Corcovada) found the presence of stoneflies, the principal component analysis show that the characterization of habitat, current velocity, dissolved oxygen and the absence of human disturbance sources of influence in a suitable habitat for populations. Stoneflies are endangered or have become extinct throughout much of its range due to human activities. Conservation plans must be implemented urgently, in order to avoid recreational areas and/or economic in vicinity thereof.     

Evaluating the conservation status of epiphytic lichens of Italy: A red list

Despite the fact that Italy is among the lichenologically best known areas worldwide, a national red list of lichens is still lacking. The aim of this work was to provide a red list of the epiphytic lichens of Italy which could facilitate the inclusion of lichens in national conservation plans. The evaluation of the species against International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria was based on data from multiple sources which represent the best available information on the epiphytic lichens of Italy. The species were assigned to the IUCN categories mainly using criteria D and B. A total of 368 species were evaluated: for 23 species, information is missing from more than 50 years and they were listed as regionally extinct, 64 as critically endangered, 75 as endangered, 74 as vulnerable, 58 as near threatened, 20 as least concern and 54 species as data deficient. Our results indicate that more than one-fourth of the epiphytic lichens of Italy are likely to be threatened, so that further research and effort are needed to include lichens in the main national conservation plans. Our results also highlight the lack of information that still hampers the rigorous evaluation of Italian lichens against IUCN criteria.     

Are <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hylobates lar</Emphasis> Extirpated from China?

The Nangunhe Nature Reserve in Southwest Yunnan (PRC) has long been presumed to be the last stronghold of lar (or white-handed) gibbons (Hylobates lar) in China and the likely last place of occurrence of Hylobates lar yunnanensis. We conducted a comprehensive survey to assess the status of lar gibbons at Nangunhe. We found no visual or auditory evidence of them still residing at the reserve and therefore tentatively conclude that lar gibbons have become extinct in China. It appears that large-scale destruction of primary forests in the 1960s and 1970s brought about an initial decline in their numbers, and subsequent uncontrolled hunting has resulted in their extirpation. The situation for the six Chinese ape taxa is nothing less than disastrous, with 1 taxon assumed to have become extinct during the last few years, 1 taxon not having been confirmed since the 1980s, and 2 species at the very brink of extinction with only tens of individuals remaining in China.     

Island incidence and mainland population density: mammals from Mediterranean islands

Abstract. The reasons why some species are resistant to extinction or are better invaders of islands than others remain unexplained. In this study, we test the hypothesis that mammals living on the mainland at higher density than predicted by the density/body mass relationship have a much greater chance to colonize a small island successfully, and/or that they are less likely to become extinct when living on small islands. For this, we used data compiled on mammals from a number of Mediterranean islands. We show a nested pattern for mammals on western Mediterranean islands, which suggests that the distribution of mammals on these islands is not the result of a random process. Using two comparative methods, we show that mammal density on the mainland, corrected for body mass, is negatively correlated with island size. Mammals with a high density compared to the density/mass relationship are the best invaders and/or probably have less chance of going extinct on small islands when population size is small.     

The intergenerational transmission of Australian Indigenous languages: why language maintenance programmes should be family-focused

By 2050, the majority of Australia’s surviving Indigenous languages are likely to become extinct. The intergenerational transmission of languages in which children acquire languages from their parents and grandparents is a key mechanism for reversing language shift, but many Australian children whose parents speak an Indigenous language do not speak that language. Using a unique, national survey of Australian Indigenous children, I identify factors associated with the successful intergenerational transmission of Indigenous languages within Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families. Results highlight the importance of parents’ language use. Although community-level characteristics account for some of the variance in successful language transmission, parents who use Indigenous languages at home, speak them as well as they speak English, and do not also speak a creole language are more likely to pass those languages onto their children.     

产自中国云南下禄丰组(下侏罗统)的爬行动物不完美硕鳄的再研究(英文)

一般认为植龙类在三叠纪末期灭绝,但有研究显示它们可能在欧洲和亚洲延续到了侏罗纪最早期。来自亚洲的证据是产自中国云南下禄丰组(?赫唐阶-锡内穆阶)的不完美硕鳄(Pachysuchus imperfectus)。重新研究显示不完美硕鳄正型标本和植龙类存在许多不同点,它可能属于一个保存较差的、分类位置无法确定的蜥脚型类恐龙头骨。这一属种的归入标本也无法明确归入某一类群,因此亚洲没有可靠的晚于三叠纪的植龙类化石记录。欧洲的侏罗纪植龙类化石也存在着同样的问题。因而认为,植龙类的化石记录仅限于三叠纪晚期。     

A mathematical model for the temporal pattern of a population structure,with particular reference to the flour beetle: II. Competition between species

The effect of competition between species is considered in terms of a mathematical model. It is found that, except for special relations among the parameters, only one species should remain, as is found experimentally. It is also found that unless new factors arise in the competition, one can calculate an index to predict which of the two species is most likely to become extinct. The index involves quantities measured from isolated populations. A preliminary extimate yields satisfactory values when compared with the experimental results of competition.     

Archosauromorph extinction selectivity during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction

Many traits have been linked to extinction risk among modern vertebrates, including mode of life and body size. However, previous work has indicated there is little evidence that body size, or any other trait, was selective during past mass extinctions. Here, we investigate the impact of the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction on early Archosauromorpha (basal dinosaurs, crocodylomorphs and their relatives) by focusing on body size and other life history traits. We built several new archosauromorph maximum‐likelihood supertrees, incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic relationships. These supertrees were then employed as a framework to test whether extinction had a phylogenetic signal during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction, and whether species with certain traits were more or less likely to go extinct. We find evidence for phylogenetic signal in extinction, in that taxa were more likely to become extinct if a close relative also did. However, there is no correlation between extinction and body size, or any other tested trait. These conclusions add to previous findings that body size, and other traits, were not subject to selection during mass extinctions in closely‐related clades, although the phylogenetic signal in extinction indicates that selection may have acted on traits not investigated here.     

The ghosts of selection past reduces the probability of plastic rescue but increases the likelihood of evolutionary rescue to novel stressors in experimental populations of wild yeast

Persistence by adaptation is called evolutionary rescue. Evolutionary rescue is more likely in populations that have been previously exposed to lower doses of the same stressor. Environmental fluctuations might also reduce the possibility of rescue, but little is known about the effect of evolutionary history on the likelihood of rescue. In this study, we hypothesised that the ubiquitous operation of generalised stress responses in many organisms increases the likelihood of rescue after exposure to other stressors. We tested this hypothesis with experimental populations that had been exposed to long‐term starvation and were then selected on different, unrelated stressors. We found that prior adaptation to starvation imposes contrary effects on the plastic and evolutionary responses of populations to subsequent stressors. When first exposed to new stressors, such populations become extinct more often. If they survive the initial exposure to the new stressors, however, they are more likely to undergo evolutionary rescue.     

Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions and the functional loss of long‐distance seed‐dispersal services

Pleistocene extinctions affected mainly large‐bodied animals, determining the loss or changes in numerous ecological functions. Evidence points to a central role of many extinct megafauna herbivores as seed dispersers. An important step in understanding the legacy of extinct mutualistic interactions is to evaluate the roles and effectiveness of megafauna herbivores in seed dispersal. Here we use morphological and ecophysiological allometries to estimate both quantitative and qualitative aspects of seed‐dispersal services likely provided by extinct megafauna. We developed a mechanistic model that encompasses four stages of seed dispersal – seed ingestion, gut retention, animal movement, and seed deposition. We estimate seed‐dispersal kernels through simulations to infer the role of Pleistocene megafauna in promoting long‐distance dispersal and examine how seed dispersal was affected by extinctions. Simulations suggest extinct large‐bodied frugivores would frequently disperse large seeds over a thousand meters, whereas smaller‐bodied frugivores are more likely to deposit the seeds over a few hundred meters. Moreover, events of long‐distance seed dispersal by the extinct megafauna would be up to ten times longer than long‐distance dispersal by smaller‐sized extant mammals. By estimating the combined distribution of seed dispersal distances considering all large‐bodied mammalian frugivores in specific South American Pleistocene assemblages we found that long‐distance dispersal contracted by at least two thirds after the megafauna died out. The disruption of long‐distance dispersal is expected to have consequences for recruitment, spatial and genetic structure of plant populations, population persistence and community composition. Promoting long‐distance seed dispersal was one among other salient features of extinct Pleistocene megafauna that reveal their influence on natural ecosystems. Modeling the consequences of megafaunal extinctions can offer quantitative predictions on the consequences of ongoing defaunation to plant populations and ecological communities.     

一类受马氏调制的连续型传染病模型

本文借鉴保险上的方法来考虑这样一个传染病模型,即在一个区域中,初始有一定的传染病人,假设一方面病人不断增加,且传染率受当时病人数目的影响;另一方面病人减少（死亡或治愈）的发生频率及数目受一外界环境的影响,而外界环境假定为一有限状态的马氏过程。在这些假设下,我们得出初始状态为i时疾病灭绝的概率以及平稳状态下的疾病灭绝概率。     

Uncovering cryptic evolutionary diversity in extant and extinct populations of the southern Australian arid zone Western and Thick-billed Grasswrens (Passeriformes: Maluridae: Amytornis)

The Western and Thick-billed Grasswrens (Aves: Passeriformes: Maluridae: Amytornis textilis and Amytornis modestus, respectively) exemplify issues surrounding the evolution, biogeography and conservation of Australia’s arid and semi-arid zone fauna. The two species together have historically occurred across much of southern Australia. They showed high intraspecific taxonomic diversity and short range endemism but suffered high rates of recent anthropogenic extinction. Of 11 named and 1 un-named subspecies, 5 are extinct and 3 are vulnerable or critically endangered. To clarify taxonomic issues, and to understand their pre-extinction phylogeography and identify extant populations and taxa of conservation value, we sequenced ~1,000 bp of the mtDNA ND2 gene from all extant populations and all but one extinct population. We confirmed reciprocal monophyly of A. modestus and A. textilis and identified strong phylogeographic structure associated with morphological divergence within each species. Populations of A. t. myall at the western edge of their range in South Australia may preserve “ghost” lineages of extinct subspecies from Western Australia as a result of ancient gene flow. Our results support recent taxonomic revisions, and highlight the critical importance of including samples of extirpated populations and extinct species to fully understand and interpret extant diversity. Conservation and management plans should recognise and seek to preserve the unique evolutionary diversity present in surviving populations.     

Genomic DNA sequences from mastodon and woolly mammoth reveal deep speciation of forest and savanna elephants

To elucidate the history of living and extinct elephantids, we generated 39,763 bp of aligned nuclear DNA sequence across 375 loci for African savanna elephant, African forest elephant, Asian elephant, the extinct American mastodon, and the woolly mammoth. Our data establish that the Asian elephant is the closest living relative of the extinct mammoth in the nuclear genome, extending previous findings from mitochondrial DNA analyses. We also find that savanna and forest elephants, which some have argued are the same species, are as or more divergent in the nuclear genome as mammoths and Asian elephants, which are considered to be distinct genera, thus resolving a long-standing debate about the appropriate taxonomic classification of the African elephants. Finally, we document a much larger effective population size in forest elephants compared with the other elephantid taxa, likely reflecting species differences in ancient geographic structure and range and differences in life history traits such as variance in male reproductive success.