Leading indicators of trophic cascades

Regime shifts are large, long-lasting changes in ecosystems. They are often hard to predict but may have leading indicators which are detectable in advance. Potential leading indicators include wider swings in dynamics of key ecosystem variables, slower return rates after perturbation and shift of variance towards lower frequencies. We evaluated these indicators using a food web model calibrated to long-term whole-lake experiments. We investigated whether impending regime shifts driven by gradual increase in exploitation of the top predator can create signals that cascade through food webs and be discerned in phytoplankton. Substantial changes in standard deviations, return rates and spectra occurred near the switch point, even two trophic levels removed from the regime shift in fishes. Signals of regime shift can be detected well in advance, if the driver of the regime shift changes much more slowly than the dynamics of key ecosystem variables which can be sampled frequently enough to measure the indicators. However, the regime shift may occur long after the driver has passed the critical point, because of very slow transient dynamics near the critical point. Thus, the ecosystem can be poised for regime shift by the time the signal is discernible. Field tests are needed to evaluate these indicators.     

Soil fertility shapes belowground food webs across a regional climate gradient

Changes in soil fertility during pedogenesis affect the quantity and quality of resources entering the belowground subsystem. Climate governs pedogenesis, yet how climate modulates responses of soil food webs to soil ageing remains unexplored because of the paucity of appropriate model systems. We characterised soil food webs along each of four retrogressive soil chronosequences situated across a strong regional climate gradient to show that belowground communities are predominantly shaped by changes in fertility rather than climate. Basal consumers showed hump‐shaped responses to soil ageing, which were propagated to higher‐order consumers. There was a shift in dominance from bacterial to fungal energy channels with increasing soil age, while the root energy channel was most important in intermediate‐aged soils. Our study highlights the overarching importance of soil fertility in regulating soil food webs, and indicates that belowground food webs will respond more strongly to shifts in soil resources than climate change.     

Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers,Risks, and Resilience

Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.     

Predator–prey mass ratio drives microbial activity under dry conditions in Sphagnum peatlands

Mid‐ to high‐latitude peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon stock but become carbon sources during droughts, which are increasingly frequent as a result of climate warming. A critical question within this context is the sensitivity to drought of peatland microbial food webs. Microbiota drive key ecological and biogeochemical processes, but their response to drought is likely to impact these processes. Peatland food webs have, however, been little studied, especially the response of microbial predators. We studied the response of microbial predators (testate amoebae, ciliates, rotifers, and nematodes) living in Sphagnum moss carpet to droughts, and their influence on lower trophic levels and on related microbial enzyme activity. We assessed the impact of reduced water availability on microbial predators in two peatlands using experimental (Linje mire, Poland) and natural (Forbonnet mire, France) water level gradients, reflecting a sudden change in moisture regime (Linje), and a typically drier environment (Forbonnet). The sensitivity of different microbial groups to drought was size dependent; large sized microbiota such as testate amoebae declined most under dry conditions (?41% in Forbonnet and ?80% in Linje). These shifts caused a decrease in the predator–prey mass ratio (PPMR). We related microbial enzymatic activity to PPMR; we found that a decrease in PPMR can have divergent effects on microbial enzymatic activity. In a community adapted to drier conditions, decreasing PPMR stimulated microbial enzyme activity, while in extreme drought experiment, it reduced microbial activity. These results suggest that microbial enzymatic activity resulting from food web structure is optimal only within a certain range of PPMR, and that different trophic mechanisms are involved in the response of peatlands to droughts. Our findings confirm the importance of large microbial consumers living at the surface of peatlands on the functioning of peatlands, and illustrate their value as early warning indicators of change.     

The role of fish life histories in allometrically scaled food‐web dynamics

相似文献   

Seasonal Trophic Niche Shift and Cascading Effect of a Generalist Predator Fish

Few studies have examined how foraging niche shift of a predator over time cascade down to local prey communities. Here we examine patterns of temporal foraging niche shifts of a generalist predator (yellow catfish, Pelteobagrus fulvidraco) and the abundance of prey communities in a subtropical lake. We predicted that the nature of these interactions would have implications for patterns in diet shifts and growth of the predator. Our results show significant decreases in planktivory and benthivory from late spring to summer and autumn, whereas piscivory increased significantly from mid-summer until late autumn and also increased steadily with predator body length. The temporal dynamics in predator/prey ratios indicate that the predation pressure on zooplankton and zoobenthos decreased when the predation pressure on the prey fish and shrimps was high. Yellow catfish adjusted their foraging strategies to temporal changes in food availability, which is in agreement with optimal foraging theory. Meanwhile the decrease in planktivory and benthivory of yellow catfish enabled primary consumers, such as zooplankton and benthic invertebrates, to develop under low grazing pressure via trophic cascading effects in the local food web. Thus, yellow catfish shifts its foraging niche to intermediate consumers in the food web to benefit the energetic demand on growth and reproduction during summer, which in turn indirectly facilitate the primary consumers. In complex food webs, trophic interactions are usually expected to reduce the strength and penetrance of trophic cascades. However, our study demonstrates strong associations between foraging niche of piscivorous fish and abundance of prey. This relationship appeared to be an important factor in producing top-down effects on both benthic and planktonic food webs.     

High‐resolution food webs based on nitrogen isotopic composition of amino acids

Food webs are known to have myriad trophic links between resource and consumer species. While herbivores have well‐understood trophic tendencies, the difficulties associated with characterizing the trophic positions of higher‐order consumers have remained a major problem in food web ecology. To better understand trophic linkages in food webs, analysis of the stable nitrogen isotopic composition of amino acids has been introduced as a potential means of providing accurate trophic position estimates. In the present study, we employ this method to estimate the trophic positions of 200 free‐roaming organisms, representing 39 species in coastal marine (a stony shore) and 38 species in terrestrial (a fruit farm) environments. Based on the trophic positions from the isotopic composition of amino acids, we are able to resolve the trophic structure of these complex food webs. Our approach reveals a high degree of trophic omnivory (i.e., noninteger trophic positions) among carnivorous species such as marine fish and terrestrial hornets.This information not only clarifies the trophic tendencies of species within their respective communities, but also suggests that trophic omnivory may be common in these webs.     

Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services

Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.     

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.     

Shifting Regimes and Changing Interactions in the Lake Washington,U.S.A., Plankton Community from 1962–1994

Understanding how changing climate, nutrient regimes, and invasive species shift food web structure is critically important in ecology. Most analytical approaches, however, assume static species interactions and environmental effects across time. Therefore, we applied multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models in a moving window context to test for shifting plankton community interactions and effects of environmental variables on plankton abundance in Lake Washington, U.S.A. from 1962–1994, following reduced nutrient loading in the 1960s and the rise of Daphnia in the 1970s. The moving-window MAR (mwMAR) approach showed shifts in the strengths of interactions between Daphnia, a dominant grazer, and other plankton taxa between a high nutrient, Oscillatoria-dominated regime and a low nutrient, Daphnia-dominated regime. The approach also highlighted the inhibiting influence of the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria on other plankton taxa in the community. Overall community stability was lowest during the period of elevated nutrient loading and Oscillatoria dominance. Despite recent warming of the lake, we found no evidence that anomalous temperatures impacted plankton abundance. Our results suggest mwMAR modeling is a useful approach that can be applied across diverse ecosystems, when questions involve shifting relationships within food webs, and among species and abiotic drivers.     

Exploring the evolutionary signature of food webs' backbones using functional traits

Increasing evidence suggests that an appropriate model for food webs, the network of feeding links in a community of species, should take into account the inherent variability of ecological interactions. Harnessing this variability, we will show that it is useful to interpret empirically observed food webs as realisations of a family of stochastic processes, namely random dot‐product graph models. These models provide an ideal extension of food‐web models beyond the limitations of current deterministic or partially probabilistic models. As an additional bene?t, our RDPG framework enables us to identify the pairwise distance structure given by species' functional food‐web traits: this allows for the natural emergence of ecologically meaningful species groups. Lastly, our results suggest the notion that the evolutionary signature in food webs is already detectable in their stochastic backbones, while the contribution of their ?ne wiring is arguable. Synthesis Food webs are influenced by many stochastic processes and are constantly evolving. Here, we treat observed food webs as realisations of random dot‐product graph models (RDPG), extending food‐web modelling beyond the limitations of current deterministic or partially probabilistic models. Our RDPG framework enables us to identify the pairwise‐distance structure given by species' functional food‐web traits, which in turn allows for the natural emergence of ecologically meaningful species groups. It also provides a way to measure the phylogenetic signal present in food webs, which we find is strongest in webs' low‐dimensional backbones.     

Do Food Web Models Reproduce the Structure of Mutualistic Networks?

Background

Simple models inspired by processes shaping consumer-resource interactions have helped to establish the primary processes underlying the organization of food webs, networks of trophic interactions among species. Because other ecological interactions such as mutualisms between plants and their pollinators and seed dispersers are inherently based in consumer-resource relationships we hypothesize that processes shaping food webs should organize mutualistic relationships as well.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a likelihood-based model selection approach to compare the performance of food web models and that of a model designed for mutualisms, in reproducing the structure of networks depicting mutualistic relationships. Our results show that these food web models are able to reproduce the structure of most of the mutualistic networks and even the simplest among the food web models, the cascade model, often reproduce overall structural properties of real mutualistic networks.

Conclusions/Significance

Based on our results we hypothesize that processes leading to feeding hierarchy, which is a characteristic shared by all food web models, might be a fundamental aspect in the assembly of mutualisms. These findings suggest that similar underlying ecological processes might be important in organizing different types of interactions.     

Analyses of interventions and structural breaks in marine and fisheries time series: Detection of shifts using iterative methods

Regime shifts in ecosystems whose patterns and properties may be very complex and thus manifold have profound implications for sustainability. Detecting structural breaks in natural processes, however, turns out to be an ambitious task because the lack of well defined target values and reference periods renders application of standard statistical (process or quality) control methods all but impossible. We develop an iterative procedure combining econometric, time series and quantile methods that produce a graphic display referred to as a “shiftogram,” which indicates potential shifts within univariate components of an ecosystem of interest by characterizing their specific and often fairly complex properties. The shiftogram approach can be routinely applied as a scanning device to any (univariate) time series. We provide a search algorithm that iteratively looks for the best value of some quality-of-fit criterion for a time series where the break point is not known beforehand. The approach is demonstrated by the application to univariate examples of fish recruitment, a climate change phenomenon and a canonical variable bundling the effect of different biodiversity indices. Analysis of ecosystem level shifts (i.e. regime shifts) can then be conducted by applying the shiftogram method to multiple component variables and examining correspondence among their resulting shift point and shift types. Alternatively we illustrate how regime shifts can be examined directly by applying the shiftogram approach to multivariate time series data after reduction to a univariate case through canonical data reduction techniques.     

Grazing simplifies soil micro‐food webs and decouples their relationships with ecosystem functions in grasslands

Livestock grazing often alters aboveground and belowground communities of grasslands and their mediated carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes at the local scale. Yet, few have examined whether grazing‐induced changes in soil food webs and their ecosystem functions can be extrapolated to a regional scale. We investigated how large herbivore grazing affects soil micro‐food webs (microbes and nematodes) and ecosystem functions (soil C and N mineralization), using paired grazed and ungrazed plots at 10 locations across the Mongolian Plateau. Our results showed that grazing not only affected plant variables (e.g., biomass and C and N concentrations), but also altered soil substrates (e.g., C and N contents) and soil environment (e.g., soil pH and bulk density). Grazing had strong bottom‐up effects on soil micro‐food webs, leading to more pronounced decreases at higher trophic levels (nematodes) than at lower trophic levels (microbes). Structural equation modeling showed that changes in plant biomass and soil environment dominated grazing effects on microbes, while nematodes were mainly influenced by changes in plant biomass and soil C and N contents; the grazing effects, however, differed greatly among functional groups in the soil micro‐food webs. Grazing reduced soil C and N mineralization rates via changes in plant biomass, soil C and N contents, and soil environment across grasslands on the Mongolian Plateau. Spearman's rank correlation analysis also showed that grazing reduced the correlations between functional groups in soil micro‐food webs and then weakened the correlation between soil micro‐food webs and soil C and N mineralization. These results suggest that changes in soil micro‐food webs resulting from livestock grazing are poor predictors of soil C and N processes at regional scale, and that the relationships between soil food webs and ecosystem functions depend on spatial scales and land‐use changes.     

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.     

Comparative and Experimental Approaches to the Study of Microbial Food Webs

ABSTRACT The study of microbial food webs is dominated by field measurements of microbial standing stocks and rate processes and to a lesser extent by laboratory studies. These approaches reflect the concerns of microbial ecologists to assess accurately the capabilities of microorganisms and to compare microbial processes to other ecosystem parameters. These approaches have led to enormous advances in understanding microbial food webs. Reconciling our expanding knowledge with general questions about the significance and representation of microbial food webs in ecosystem studies requires additional approaches including comparative studies and field experiments. Comparative studies, analyses of microbial stocks or rates across a wide range of ecosystems, lead to quantitative models of microbial processes. These models facilitate testing of hypotheses at a very general level, allow the comparison of different stocks or rate processes across a gradient of systems, and detect unusual situations or outlier systems. Field experimental manipulations offer the advantages of working with intact natural communities, of direct evaluation of results with statistical methods, and of testing important qualitative hypotheses. Both comparative and field manipulation studies have led to important advances in the study of microbial food webs and should be expanded.     

Invasions cause biodiversity loss and community simplification in vertebrate food webs

Global change is increasing the occurrence of perturbation events on natural communities, with biological invasions posing a major threat to ecosystem integrity and functioning worldwide. Most studies addressing biological invasions have focused on individual species or taxonomic groups to understand both, the factors determining invasion success and their effects on native species. A more holistic approach that considers multispecies communities and species’ interactions can contribute to a better understanding of invasion effects on complex communities. Here we address biological invasions on species‐rich food webs. We performed in silico experiments on empirical vertebrate food webs by introducing virtual species characterised by different ecological roles and belonging to different trophic groups. We varied a number of invasive species traits, including their diet breadth, the number of predators attacking them, and the bioenergetic thresholds below which invader and native species become extinct. We found that simpler food webs were more vulnerable to invasions, and that relatively less connected mammals were the most successful invaders. Invasions altered food web structure by decreasing species richness and the number of links per species, with most extinctions affecting poorly connected birds. Our food web approach allows identifying the combinations of trophic factors that facilitate or prevent biological invasions, and it provides testable predictions on the effects of invasions on the structure and dynamics of multitrophic communities.     

Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.     

Colorful niches of phytoplankton shaped by the spatial connectivity in a large river ecosystem: a riverscape perspective

Large rivers represent a significant component of inland waters and are considered sentinels and integrators of terrestrial and atmospheric processes. They represent hotspots for the transport and processing of organic and inorganic material from the surrounding landscape, which ultimately impacts the bio-optical properties and food webs of the rivers. In large rivers, hydraulic connectivity operates as a major forcing variable to structure the functioning of the riverscape, and--despite increasing interest in large-river studies--riverscape structural properties, such as the underwater spectral regime, and their impact on autotrophic ecological processes remain poorly studied. Here we used the St. Lawrence River to identify the mechanisms structuring the underwater spectral environment and their consequences on pico- and nanophytoplankton communities, which are good biological tracers of environmental changes. Our results, obtained from a 450 km sampling transect, demonstrate that tributaries exert a profound impact on the receiving river's photosynthetic potential. This occurs mainly through injection of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and non-algal material (tripton). CDOM and tripton in the water column selectively absorbed wavelengths in a gradient from blue to red, and the resulting underwater light climate was in turn a strong driver of the phytoplankton community structure (prokaryote/eukaryote relative and absolute abundances) at scales of many kilometers from the tributary confluence. Our results conclusively demonstrate the proximal impact of watershed properties on underwater spectral composition in a highly dynamic river environment characterized by unique structuring properties such as high directional connectivity, numerous sources and forms of carbon, and a rapidly varying hydrodynamic regime. We surmise that the underwater spectral composition represents a key integrating and structural property of large, heterogeneous river ecosystems and a promising tool to study autotrophic functional properties. It confirms the usefulness of using the riverscape approach to study large-river ecosystems and initiate comparison along latitudinal gradients.     

Forecasting fine‐scale changes in the food‐web structure of coastal marine communities under climate change

Climate change is inducing deep modifications in local communities worldwide as a consequence of individualistic species range shifts. Understanding how complex interaction networks will be reorganized under climate change represents a major challenge in the fields of ecology and biogeography. However, forecasting the potential effects of climate change on local communities, and more particularly on food‐web structure, requires the consideration of highly structuring processes, such as trophic interactions. A major breakthrough is therefore expected by combining predictive models integrating habitat selection processes, the physiological limits of marine species and their trophic interactions. In this study, we forecasted the potential impacts of climate change on the local food‐web structure of the highly threatened Gulf of Gabes ecosystem located in the south of the Mediterranean Sea. We coupled the climatic envelope and habitat models to an allometric niche food web model, hence taking into account the different processes acting at regional (climate) and local scales (habitat selection and trophic interactions). Our projections under the A2 climate change scenario showed that future food webs would be composed of smaller species with fewer links, resulting in a decrease of connectance, generality, vulnerability and mean trophic level of communities and an increase of the average path length, which may have large consequences on ecosystem functioning. The unified framework presented here, by connecting food‐web ecology, biogeography and seascape ecology, allows the exploration of spatial aspects of interspecific interactions under climate change and improves our current understanding of climate change impacts on local marine food webs.