Mathematical Model of BCG Immunotherapy in Superficial Bladder Cancer

Immunotherapy with Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG)—an attenuated strain of Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) used for anti tuberculosis immunization—is a clinically established procedure for the treatment of superficial bladder cancer. However, the mode of action has not yet been fully elucidated, despite much extensive biological experience. The purpose of this paper is to develop a first mathematical model that describes tumor-immune interactions in the bladder as a result of BCG therapy. A mathematical analysis of the ODE model identifies multiple equilibrium points, their stability properties, and bifurcation points. Intriguing regimes of bistability are identified in which treatment has potential to result in a tumor-free equilibrium or a full-blown tumor depending only on initial conditions. Attention is given to estimating parameters and validating the model using published data taken from in vitro, mouse and human studies. The model makes clear that intensity of immunotherapy must be kept in limited bounds. While small treatment levels may fail to clear the tumor, a treatment that is too large can lead to an over-stimulated immune system having dangerous side effects for the patient.     

Mathematical Model for Optimal Use of Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine as a Temporary Malaria Vaccine

In this paper, we introduce a deterministic malaria model for determining the drug administration protocol that leads to the smallest first malaria episodes during the wet season. To explore the effects of administering the malaria drug on different days during the wet season while minimizing the potential harmful effects of drug overdose, we define 40 drug administration protocols. Our results fit well with the clinical studies of Coulibaly et al. at a site in Mali. In addition, we provide protocols that lead to smaller number of first malaria episodes during the wet season than the protocol of Coulibaly et al.     

Interaction of Tumor with Its Micro-environment: A Mathematical Model

This paper is concerned with early development of transformed epithelial cells (TECs) in the presence of fibroblasts in the tumor micro-environment. These two types of cells interact by means of cytokines such as transforming growth factor (TGF-β) and epidermal growth factor (EGF) secreted, respectively, by the TECs and the fibroblasts. As this interaction proceeds, TGF-β induces fibroblasts to differentiate into myofibroblasts which secrete EGF at a larger rate than fibroblasts. We monitor the entire process in silico, in a setup which mimics experiments in a Tumor Chamber Invasion Assay, where a semi-permeable membrane coated by extracellular matrix (ECM) is placed between two chambers, one containing TECs and another containing fibroblasts. We develop a mathematical model, based on a system of PDEs, that includes the interaction between TECs, fibroblasts, myofibroblasts, TGF-β, and EGF, and we show how model parameters affect tumor progression. The model is used to generate several hypotheses on how to slow tumor growth and invasion. In an Appendix, it is proved that the mathematical model has a unique global in-time solution.     

Searching for Spatial Patterns in a Pollinator–Plant–Herbivore Mathematical Model

This paper deals with the spatio-temporal dynamics of a pollinator–plant–herbivore mathematical model. The full model consists of three nonlinear reaction–diffusion–advection equations defined on a rectangular region. In view of analyzing the full model, we firstly consider the temporal dynamics of three homogeneous cases. The first one is a model for a mutualistic interaction (pollinator–plant), later on a sort of predator–prey (plant–herbivore) interaction model is studied. In both cases, the interaction term is described by a Holling response of type II. Finally, by considering that the plant population is the unique feeding source for the herbivores, a mathematical model for the three interacting populations is considered. By incorporating a constant diffusion term into the equations for the pollinators and herbivores, we numerically study the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two mentioned models. For the full model, a constant diffusion and advection terms are included in the equation for the pollinators. For the resulting model, we sketch the proof of the existence, positiveness, and boundedness of solution for an initial and boundary values problem. In order to see the separated effect of the diffusion and advection terms on the final population distributions, a set of numerical simulations are included. We used homogeneous Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions.     

A Mathematical Model of Schistosoma mansoni in Biomphalaria glabrata with Control Strategies

We describe and analyze a mathematical model for schistosomiasis in which infected snails are distinguished from susceptible through increased mortality and no reproduction. We based the model on the same derivation as Anderson and May (J. Anim. Ecol. 47:219–247, 1978), Feng and Milner (A New Mathematical Model of Schistosomiasis, Mathematical Models in Medical and Health Science, Nashville, TN, 1997. Innov. Appl. Math., Vanderbilt Univ. Press, Nashville, pp. 117–128, 1998), and May and Anderson (J. Anim. Ecol. 47:249–267, 1978), but used logistic growth both in human and snail hosts. We introduce a parameter r, the effective coverage of medical treatment/prevention to control the infection. We determine a reproductive number for the disease directly related to its persistence and extinction. Finally, we obtain a critical value for r that indicates the minimum treatment effort needed in order to clear out the disease from the population.     

Conditions for Global Dynamic Stability of a Class of Resource-Bounded Model Ecosystems

This paper studies a class of dynamical systems that model multi-species ecosystems. These systems are ‘resource bounded’ in the sense that species compete to utilize an underlying limiting resource or substrate. This boundedness means that the relevant state space can be reduced to a simplex, with coordinates representing the proportions of substrate utilized by the various species. If the vector field is inward pointing on the boundary of the simplex, the state space is forward invariant under the system flow, a requirement that can be interpreted as the presence of non-zero exogenous recruitment. We consider conditions under which these model systems have a unique interior equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable. The systems we consider generalize classical multi-species Lotka–Volterra systems, the behaviour of which is characterized by properties of the community (or interaction) matrix. However, the more general systems considered here are not characterized by a single matrix, but rather a family of matrices. We develop a set of ‘explicit conditions’ on the basis of a notion of ‘uniform diagonal dominance’ for such a family of matrices, that allows us to extract a set of sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability based on properties of a single, derived matrix. Examples of these explicit conditions are discussed.     

Age and Sex Structured Model for Assessing the Demographic Impact of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV/AIDS

Age and sex structured HIV/AIDS model with explicit incubation period is proposed as a system of delay differential equations. The model consists of two age groups that are children (0–14 years) and adults (15–49 years). Thus, the model considers both mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and heterosexual transmission of HIV in a community. MTCT can occur prenatally, at labour and delivery or postnatally through breastfeeding. In the model, we consider the children age group as a one-sex formulation and divide the adult age group into a two-sex structure consisting of females and males. The important mathematical features of the model are analysed. The disease-free and endemic equilibria are found and their stabilities investigated. We use the Lyapunov functional approach to show the local stability of the endemic equilibrium. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions, and persistence are also presented. The basic reproductive number (ℛ₀) for the model shows that the adult population is responsible for the spread HIV/AIDS epidemic, thus up-to-date developed HIV/AIDS models to assess intervention strategies have focused much on heterosexual transmission by the adult population and the children population has received little attention. We numerically analyse the HIV/AIDS model to assess the community benefits of using antiretroviral drugs in reducing MTCT and the effects of breastfeeding in settings with high HIV/AIDS prevalence ratio using demographic and epidemiological parameters for Zimbabwe.     

Introduction to Special Issue on ‘Statistical Methods for Cancer Immunotherapy’

Statistics in Biosciences -     

International Meeting “Immunotherapy of Cancer: Challenges and Needs”

The main aims of the international meeting “Immunotherapy of Cancer: Challenges and Needs” were to review the state of the art of cancer immunotherapy and to identify critical issues which deserve special attention for promoting progress of research in this field, with a particular focus on the perspectives of clinical research. Novel concepts and strategies for identifying, monitoring and predicting effective responses to cancer immunotherapy protocols were presented, focused on the use of adjuvants (CpG oligonucleotides) or cytokines (IFN-alpha) to enhance the efficacy of cancer vaccines. Moreover, the possible advantages of using different types of dendritic cells (for active immunization strategies) or T cells (for adoptive immunotherapy protocols) were debated. A consensus was achieved on the need for enhancing the efficacy of cancer vaccines or adoptive cell immunotherapy by combining these strategies with other anti-cancer treatments, including chemotherapy. Finally, initiatives for promoting clinical research by establishing a strategic cooperation in the field of cancer immunotherapy based on the active participation of all the relevant actors, including public institutions responsible of Public Health, National Cancer Institutes, industry, representatives of regulatory bodies, and patients’ organizations were proposed.     

Efficient Semiparametric Marginal Estimation for the Partially Linear Additive Model for Longitudinal/Clustered Data

We consider the efficient estimation of a regression parameter in a partially linear additive nonparametric regression model from repeated measures data when the covariates are multivariate. To date, while there is some literature in the scalar covariate case, the problem has not been addressed in the multivariate additive model case. Ours represents a first contribution in this direction. As part of this work, we first describe the behavior of nonparametric estimators for additive models with repeated measures when the underlying model is not additive. These results are critical when one considers variants of the basic additive model. We apply them to the partially linear additive repeated-measures model, deriving an explicit consistent estimator of the parametric component; if the errors are in addition Gaussian, the estimator is semiparametric efficient. We also apply our basic methods to a unique testing problem that arises in genetic epidemiology; in combination with a projection argument we develop an efficient and easily computed testing scheme. Simulations and an empirical example from nutritional epidemiology illustrate our methods.     

The Role of Viral Infection in Pest Control: A Mathematical Study

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model of viral infection in pest control. As the viral infection induces host lysis which releases more virus into the environment, on the average ‘κ’ viruses per host, κ∈(1,∞), so the ‘virus replication parameter’ is chosen as the main parameter on which the dynamics of the infection depends. There exists a threshold value κ ₀ beyond which the infection persists in the system. Still for increasing the value of κ, the endemic equilibrium bifurcates towards a periodic solution, which essentially indicates that the viral pesticide has a density-dependent ‘numerical response’ component to its action. Investigation also includes the dependence of the process on predation of natural enemy into the system. A concluding discussion with numerical simulation of the model is also presented.     

Bistability Analysis of an Apoptosis Model in the Presence of Nitric Oxide

Bistability in apoptosis, or programmed cell death, is crucial for the healthy functioning of multicellular organisms. The aim in this study is to show the presence of bistability in a mitochondria-dependent apoptosis model under nitric oxide effects using chemical reaction network theory. The model equations are a set of coupled ordinary differential equations arising from the assumed mass action kinetics. Whether these equations have a capacity for bistability (cell survival and apoptosis) is determined using a modular approach in which the model is decomposed into modules. Each module contains only a subset of the whole model and is analyzed separately. It is seen that bistability in a module is preserved throughout the whole model after adding the remaining reactions in the pathway on these modules. It is also found that inhibitor effect of some proteins and the appearance of a reacting protein in a later stage as a product is a desired feature but not sufficient for bistability (in the absence of cooperativity effects). On the whole model, two apoptotic and two cell survival states are obtained depending on the initial cell conditions. The results suggest that the antiapoptotic effects of nitric oxide species are responsible for the bistable character of the apoptotic pathway when cooperativity is not assumed in the apoptosome formation.     

A Periodic Droop Model for Two Species Competition in A Chemostat

Both uniform persistence and the existence of periodic coexistence state are established for a periodically forced Droop model on two phytoplankton species competition in a chemostat under some appropriate conditions. Numerical simulations using biological data are presented as well to illustrate the main result. Research supported in part by the NSERC of Canada and the MITACS of Canada.     

Mathematical Study of the Role of Gametocytes and an Imperfect Vaccine on Malaria Transmission Dynamics

A mathematical model is developed to assess the role of gametocytes (the infectious sexual stage of the malaria parasite) in malaria transmission dynamics in a community. The model is rigorously analysed to gain insights into its dynamical features. It is shown that, in the absence of disease-induced mortality, the model has a globally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the basic reproduction number (denoted by ℛ₀), is less than unity. Further, it has a unique endemic equilibrium if ℛ₀>1. The model is extended to incorporate an imperfect vaccine with some assumed therapeutic characteristics. Theoretical analyses of the model with vaccination show that an imperfect malaria vaccine could have negative or positive impact (in reducing disease burden) depending on whether or not a certain threshold (denoted by ∇) is less than unity. Numerical simulations of the vaccination model show that such an imperfect anti-malaria vaccine (with a modest efficacy and coverage rate) can lead to effective disease control if the reproduction threshold (denoted by ℛ_vac) of the disease is reasonably small. On the other hand, the disease cannot be effectively controlled using such a vaccine if ℛ_vac is high. Finally, it is shown that the average number of days spent in the class of infectious individuals with higher level of gametocyte is critically important to the malaria burden in the community.