Timing of transmission and the evolution of virulence of an insect virus

We used the nuclear polyhedrosis virus of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, to investigate whether the timing of transmission influences the evolution of virulence. In theory, early transmission should favour rapid replication and increase virulence, while late transmission should favour slower replication and reduce virulence. We tested this prediction by subjecting one set of 10 virus lineages to early transmission (Early viruses) and another set to late transmission (Late viruses). Each lineage of virus underwent nine cycles of transmission. Virulence assays on these lineages indicated that viruses transmitted early were significantly more lethal than those transmitted late. Increased exploitation of the host appears to come at a cost, however. While Early viruses initially produced more progeny, Late viruses were ultimately more productive over the entire duration of the infection. These results illustrate fitness trade-offs associated with the evolution of virulence and indicate that milder viruses can obtain a numerical advantage when mild and harmful strains tend to infect separate hosts.     

R5 Strains of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 from Rapid Progressors Lacking X4 Strains Do Not Possess X4-Type Pathogenicity in Human Thymus

Some individuals infected with only R5 strains of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 progress to AIDS as quickly as individuals harboring X4 strains. We determined that three R5 viruses were much less pathogenic than an X4 virus in SCID-hu Thy/Liv mice, suggesting that R5 virus-mediated rapid disease progression is associated with host, not viral, factors.     

Evolutionary mechanisms of persistence and diversification of a calicivirus within endemically infected natural host populations

In order to understand the evolutionary mechanisms of persistence and diversification within the Caliciviridae, we have been exploiting endemic infection of feline calicivirus within five geographically distinct household groups of cats. By sequencing immunodominant and variable regions of the capsid gene, we identified the relative contribution of the different evolutionary processes employed by the virus to ensure its long-term survival in the host population. Such strategies included progressive evolution of a given variant of a strain through mutation accumulation within an individual, sequential reinfection with either a variant of the same strain or with a different strain, and mixed infection. Recombination between different strains in this study has been reported in detail elsewhere (K. P. Coyne et al., J. Gen. Virol. 87:921-926, 2006). Here, we provide evidence to suggest that true long-term persistent infection in individuals is relatively rare, with the majority of apparent viral carriers undergoing a combination of progressive evolution and cyclical reinfection. Progressive evolution at the individual level and variant reinfection at both the individual and population levels were associated with positive selection. Two measures of evolution rate were determined; for a virus progressively evolving within an individual (1.32 x 10(-2) to 2.64 x 10(-2) substitutions per nucleotide per year, i.e., no transmission) and for a strain circulating within a population (3.84 x 10(-2) to 4.56 x 10(-2) substitutions per nucleotide per year, i.e., including transmission). Reiteration of both progressive evolution and variant reinfection appeared to lead to a gradual increase in the diversity of a given strain of virus, both in the individual and in the population, until eventually new strains emerged.     

Host density and the evolution of parasite virulence

Social and cultural habits of human populations affect the biological evolution of the agents of infectious diseases. Measles and similar diseases have evolved in the Old World and cannot have existed in their present form before the rise of the great river valley civilizations. It is suggested that increased virulence of measles in white and indigenous communities in America 1500-1800 may be due to a rare strain of the virus, which was selected during transfer from Europe. The release of viruses for biological pest control has provided new material for the study of the co-evolution of host-parasite systems, which has upset the dogma "evolution tends to avirulence". It is pointed out that this issue is closely related to the group selection debate among ethologists, i.e. to the problem: how can group selection overcome individual selection? A model is proposed in which differential growth of two strains of a parasite within the host and their transmission to new hosts is considered. It is supposed that transmission stages excreted by infectious hosts enter a common pool where they are mixed before infecting new hosts. Under these conditions, selection of the slower strain is possible only if the mean size of parasite inoculum is very small, i.e. if the density of transmission stages in the environment is low. The impact of this result on host pathology depends on the relation between virulence and transmission efficiency of the parasite.     

Interactions among two strains of Tubifex tubifex (Oligochaeta: Tubificidae) and Myxobolus cerebralis (Myxozoa)

Host-parasite interactions influence host population growth, host evolution and parasite success. We examined the interactions among Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite that causes salmonid whirling disease, and resistant and susceptible strains of the oligochaete host Tubifex tubifex. Strains of T. tubifex with diverse genotypes often coexist in nature and have variable susceptibilities to M. cerebralis infection. Further, parasite proliferation differs by several orders of magnitude among T. tubifex strains. We examined total biomass produced by individual T. tubifex, including progeny production and adult growth, parasite proliferation and prevalence of infection using 2 strains of T. tubifex at 2 myxospore doses in a response-surface experimental design. Total biomass production per individual oligochaete and progeny biomass produced by an individual adult oligochaete were density-dependent for both resistant and susceptible individuals and the effects did not change with the addition of myxospores. However, both resistant and susceptible adults had highest growth when exposed to M. cerebralis. The presence of resistant oligochaetes in mixed cultures did not reduce the infection prevalence or parasite proliferation in susceptible individuals. In natural aquatic communities, resistant strains of T. tubifex may not reduce the effects of M. cerebralis on the salmonid host, particularly if sufficient numbers of susceptible T. tubifex are present.     

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections harbor limited within-host diversity and transmit via tight transmission bottlenecks

The emergence of divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages has raised concern that novel variants eliciting immune escape or the ability to displace circulating lineages could emerge within individual hosts. Though growing evidence suggests that novel variants arise during prolonged infections, most infections are acute. Understanding how efficiently variants emerge and transmit among acutely-infected hosts is therefore critical for predicting the pace of long-term SARS-CoV-2 evolution. To characterize how within-host diversity is generated and propagated, we combine extensive laboratory and bioinformatic controls with metrics of within- and between-host diversity to 133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from acutely-infected individuals. We find that within-host diversity is low and transmission bottlenecks are narrow, with very few viruses founding most infections. Within-host variants are rarely transmitted, even among individuals within the same household, and are rarely detected along phylogenetically linked infections in the broader community. These findings suggest that most variation generated within-host is lost during transmission.     

Why does human culture increase exponentially?

Historical records show that culture can increase exponentially in time, e.g., in number of poems, musical works, scientific discoveries. We model how human capacities for creativity and cultural transmission may make such an increase possible, suggesting that: (1) creativity played a major role at the origin of human culture and for its accumulation throughout history, because cultural transmission cannot, on its own, generate exponentially increasing amounts of culture; (2) exponential increase in amount of culture can only occur if creativity is positively influenced by culture. The evolution of cultural transmission is often considered the main genetic bottleneck for the origin of culture, because natural selection cannot favor cultural transmission without any culture to transmit. Our models suggest that an increase in individual creativity may have been the first step toward human culture, because in a population of creative individuals there may be enough non-genetic information to favor the evolution of cultural transmission.     

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 env evolves toward ancestral states upon transmission to a new host

Selecting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sequences for inclusion within vaccines has been a difficult problem, as circulating HIV strains evolve relentlessly and become increasingly divergent over time. We report an assessment of this divergence from three perspectives: (i) across different hosts as a function of time of infection, (ii) between donors and recipients in known transmission pairs, and (iii) within individual hosts over time in relation to the initially replicating virus and to the deduced ancestral sequence of the intrahost viral population. Surprisingly, we consistently found less divergence between viruses from different individuals sampled in primary infection than in individuals sampled at more advanced stages of illness. Furthermore, longitudinal analysis of intrahost divergence revealed a 2- to 3-year period of evolution toward a common ancestral sequence at the start of infection, indicating that HIV recovers certain ancestral features when infecting a new host. These results have important implications for the study of HIV population genetics and rational vaccine design, including favoring the inclusion of viral gene sequences taken early in infection.     

PARASITE CO‐TRANSMISSION AND THE EVOLUTIONARY EPIDEMIOLOGY OF VIRULENCE

Hosts are often co‐infected by several parasite genotypes of the same species or even by different species and this is known to affect virulence evolution. However, epidemiological models typically assume that only one of the co‐infecting strains can be transmitted at the same time, which is often at odds with the observed biology. Here, I study the effect of co‐transmission on virulence evolution in a case where parasites compete for host resources. For co‐infections by strains of the same species, increased co‐transmission selects for less virulent strains. This is because co‐transmission aligns the interests of co‐infecting strains, thus decreasing the selective pressure for increased within‐host competitiveness. For co‐infection caused by different parasite species, the evolutionary outcome depends on the respective virulence of the two parasite species. Finally, I investigate asymmetric scenarios, for example that of plant viruses that require “helper” molecules produced by viruses from another species to be transmitted. These results show that even if parasite strains compete for host resources, the prevalence of co‐infections can be a poor predictor of virulence evolution.     

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in domestic cats imposes a narrow bottleneck

The evolutionary mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 viruses adapt to mammalian hosts and, potentially, undergo antigenic evolution depend on the ways genetic variation is generated and selected within and between individual hosts. Using domestic cats as a model, we show that SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences remain largely unchanged over time within hosts, while dynamic sub-consensus diversity reveals processes of genetic drift and weak purifying selection. We further identify a notable variant at amino acid position 655 in Spike (H655Y), which was previously shown to confer escape from human monoclonal antibodies. This variant arises rapidly and persists at intermediate frequencies in index cats. It also becomes fixed following transmission in two of three pairs. These dynamics suggest this site may be under positive selection in this system and illustrate how a variant can quickly arise and become fixed in parallel across multiple transmission pairs. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in cats involved a narrow bottleneck, with new infections founded by fewer than ten viruses. In RNA virus evolution, stochastic processes like narrow transmission bottlenecks and genetic drift typically act to constrain the overall pace of adaptive evolution. Our data suggest that here, positive selection in index cats followed by a narrow transmission bottleneck may have instead accelerated the fixation of S H655Y, a potentially beneficial SARS-CoV-2 variant. Overall, our study suggests species- and context-specific adaptations are likely to continue to emerge. This underscores the importance of continued genomic surveillance for new SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as heightened scrutiny for signatures of SARS-CoV-2 positive selection in humans and mammalian model systems.     

Genomic polymorphism of the pandemic A (H1N1) influenza viruses correlates with viral replication, virulence, and pathogenicity in vitro and in vivo

The novel pandemic A (H1N1) virus was first identified in Mexico in April 2009 and quickly spread worldwide. Like all influenzas, the H1N1 strain-specific properties of replication, virulence, and pathogenicity are a result of the particular genomic sequence and concerted expression of multiple genes. Thus, specific mutations may support increased virulence and may be useful as biomarkers of potential threat to human health. We performed comparative genomic analysis of ten strains of the 2009 pandemic A (H1N1) influenza viruses to determine whether genotypes associated with clinical phenotypes, which ranged from mild to severe illness and up to lethal. Virus replication capacity was tested for each strain in vitro using cultured epithelial cells, while virulence and pathogenicity were investigated in vivo using the BALB/c mouse model. The results indicated that A/Sichuan/1/2009 strain had significantly higher replication ability and virulence than the other strains, and five unique non-synonymous mutations were identified in important gene-encoding sequences. These mutations led to amino acid substitutions in HA (L32I), PA (A343T), PB1 (K353R and T566A), and PB2 (T471M), and may be critical molecular determinants for replication, virulence, and pathogenicity. Our results suggested that the replication capacity in vitro and virulence in vivo of the 2009 pandemic A (H1N1) viruses were not associated with the clinical phenotypes. This study offers new insights into the transmission and evolution of the 2009 pandemic A (H1N1) virus.     

Genesis of pandemic influenza

During the last decade the number of reported outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in domestic poultry has drastically increased. At the same time, low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) strains, such as H9N2 in many parts of the Middle East and Asia and H6N2 in live bird markets in California, have become endemic. Each AI outbreak brings the concomitant possibility of poultry-to-human transmission. Indeed, human illness and death have resulted from such occasional transmissions with highly pathogenic avian H7N7 and H5N1 viruses while avian H9N2 viruses have been isolated from individuals with mild influenza. The transmission of avian influenza directly from poultry to humans has brought a sense of urgency in terms of understanding the mechanisms that lead to interspecies transmission of influenza. Domestic poultry species have been previously overlooked as potential intermediate hosts in the generation of influenza viruses with the capacity to infect humans. In this review, we will discuss molecular and epidemiological aspects that have led to the recurrent emergence of avian influenza strains with pandemic potential, with a particular emphasis on the current Asian H5N1 viruses.     

Modeling Within-Host Evolution of HIV: Mutation,Competition and Strain Replacement

Virus evolution during infection of a single individual is a well-known feature of disease progression in chronic viral diseases. However, the simplest models of virus competition for host resources show the existence of a single dominant strain that grows most rapidly during the initial period of infection and competitively excludes all other virus strains. Here, we examine the dynamics of strain replacement in a simple model that includes a convex trade-off between rapid virus reproduction and long-term host cell survival. Strains are structured according to their within-cell replication rate. Over the course of infection, we find a progression in the dominant strain from fast- to moderately-replicating virus strains featuring distinct jumps in the replication rate of the dominant strain over time. We completely analyze the model and provide estimates for the replication rate of the initial dominant strain and its successors. Our model lays the groundwork for more detailed models of HIV selection and mutation. We outline future directions and application of related models to other biological situations.     

A human coronavirus evolves antigenically to escape antibody immunity

There is intense interest in antibody immunity to coronaviruses. However, it is unknown if coronaviruses evolve to escape such immunity, and if so, how rapidly. Here we address this question by characterizing the historical evolution of human coronavirus 229E. We identify human sera from the 1980s and 1990s that have neutralizing titers against contemporaneous 229E that are comparable to the anti-SARS-CoV-2 titers induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We test these sera against 229E strains isolated after sera collection, and find that neutralizing titers are lower against these “future” viruses. In some cases, sera that neutralize contemporaneous 229E viral strains with titers >1:100 do not detectably neutralize strains isolated 8–17 years later. The decreased neutralization of “future” viruses is due to antigenic evolution of the viral spike, especially in the receptor-binding domain. If these results extrapolate to other coronaviruses, then it may be advisable to periodically update SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.     

Discovery of Genes that Modulate Flavivirus Replication in an Interferon-Dependent Manner

Establishment of the interferon (IFN)-mediated antiviral state provides a crucial initial line of defense against viral infection. Numerous genes that contribute to this antiviral state remain to be identified. Using a loss-of-function strategy, we screened an original library of 1156 siRNAs targeting 386 individual curated human genes in stimulated microglial cells infected with Zika virus (ZIKV), an emerging RNA virus that belongs to the flavivirus genus. The screen recovered twenty-one potential host proteins that modulate ZIKV replication in an IFN-dependent manner, including the previously known IFITM3 and LY6E. Further characterization contributed to delineate the spectrum of action of these genes towards other pathogenic RNA viruses, including Hepatitis C virus and SARS-CoV-2. Our data revealed that APOL3 acts as a proviral factor for ZIKV and several other related and unrelated RNA viruses. In addition, we showed that MTA2, a chromatin remodeling factor, possesses potent flavivirus-specific antiviral functions induced by IFN. Our work identified previously unrecognized genes that modulate the replication of RNA viruses in an IFN-dependent manner, opening new perspectives to target weakness points in the life cycle of these viruses.     

Differences in accumulation and virulence determine the outcome of competition during Tobacco etch virus coinfection

Understanding the evolution of virulence for RNA viruses is essential for developing appropriate control strategies. Although it has been usually assumed that virulence is a consequence of within-host replication of the parasite, viral strains may be highly virulent without experiencing large accumulation as a consequence of immunopathological host responses. Using two strains of Tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) that show a negative relationship between virulence and accumulation rate, we first explored the evolution of virulence and fitness traits during simple and mixed infections. Short-term evolution experiments initiated with each strain independently confirmed the genetic and evolutionary stability of virulence and viral load, although infectivity significantly increased for both strains. Second, competition experiments between hypo- and hypervirulent TEV strains have shown that the outcome of competition is driven by differences in replication rate. A simple mathematical model has been developed to analyze the dynamics of these two strains during coinfection. The model qualitatively reproduced the experimental results using biologically meaningful parameters. Further analyses of the model also revealed a wide parametric region in which a low-fitness but hypovirulent virus can still outcompete a high-fitness but hypervirulent one. These results provide additional support to the observation that virulence and within-host replication may not necessarily be strongly tied in plant RNA viruses.     

Body temperature variation controls pre-mRNA processing and transcription of antiviral genes and SARS-CoV-2 replication

Antiviral innate immunity represents the first defense against invading viruses and is key to control viral infections, including SARS-CoV-2. Body temperature is an omnipresent variable but was neglected when addressing host defense mechanisms and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here, we show that increasing temperature in a 1.5°C window, between 36.5 and 38°C, strongly increases the expression of genes in two branches of antiviral immunity, nitric oxide production and type I interferon response. We show that alternative splicing coupled to nonsense-mediated decay decreases STAT2 expression in colder conditions and suggest that increased STAT2 expression at elevated temperature induces the expression of diverse antiviral genes and SARS-CoV-2 restriction factors. This cascade is activated in a remarkably narrow temperature range below febrile temperature, which reflects individual, circadian and age-dependent variation. We suggest that decreased body temperature with aging contributes to reduced expression of antiviral genes in older individuals. Using cell culture and in vivo models, we show that higher body temperature correlates with reduced SARS-CoV-2 replication, which may affect the different vulnerability of children versus seniors toward severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Altogether, our data connect body temperature and pre-mRNA processing to provide new mechanistic insight into the regulation of antiviral innate immunity.