共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Tom H. Oliver Simon Gillings James W. Pearce‐Higgins Tom Brereton Humphrey Q. P. Crick Simon J. Duffield Michael D. Morecroft David B. Roy 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(6):2272-2283
Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high‐intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully ‘tracking’ climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm‐ and cold‐associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold‐associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm‐associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting ‘adaptive’ community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high‐intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold‐adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm‐associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. 相似文献
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Grégory Beaugrand Eric Goberville Christophe Luczak Richard R Kirby 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2014,281(1783)
Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and services, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are deterministic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes. We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70% of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56% of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958–2009. 相似文献
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F. JOEL FODRIE † KENNETH L. HECK Jr † SEAN P. POWERS † WILLIAM M. GRAHAM † KELLY L. ROBINSON † 《Global Change Biology》2010,16(1):48-59
Global temperatures are rising, and are expected to produce a poleward shift in the distribution of many organisms. We quantified changes in fish assemblages within seagrass meadows of the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) between the 1970s and 2006–2007, and observed changes consistent with this forecast. During 2006–2007 we sampled seagrass meadows using the same gears and methods previously employed by R. J. Livingston in coastal waters of northwest Florida throughout the 1970s. Comparisons between datasets revealed numerous additions to the fish fauna during 2006–2007 that were completely absent in the 1970s, including: Lutjanus synagris (lane snapper), Epinephelus morio (red grouper), Chaetodon ocellatus (spotfin butterflyfish), Mycteroperca sp (grouper, non gag), Centropristis philadelphica (rock sea bass), Fistularia tabacaria (bluespotted cornetfish), Ocyurus chrysurus (yellowtail snapper), Thalassoma bifasciatum (bluehead wrasse), Abudefduf saxatilis (sergeant major), Acanthuridae spp. (surgeonfishes) and Sparisoma viride (stoplight parrotfish). Several other species showed large increases in abundance during the interval between 1979 and 2006, including Mycteroperca microlepis (gag grouper, up ∼200 ×), Lutjanus griseus (gray snapper, up ∼105 ×), and Nicholsina usta (emerald parrotfish, up ∼22 ×). All of these are tropical or subtropical species that now make up a greater percentage of seagrass-associated fish assemblages in the northern GOM than in the past. Additionally, we observed regional increases in air and sea surface temperatures (> 3 °C) during the ∼30 years that separate Livingston's samples and ours that correlate with northern shifts in the distribution of warm-water fishes. Documenting these range shifts is a critical first step in investigating the consequences of global warming for endemic marine communities and fishery production in the northern GOM. 相似文献
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Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. 相似文献
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RACHAEL HICKLING † DAVID B. ROY JANE K. HILL† RICHARD FOX‡ CHRIS D. THOMAS† 《Global Change Biology》2006,12(3):450-455
Evidence is accumulating of shifts in species' distributions during recent climate warming. However, most of this information comes predominantly from studies of a relatively small selection of taxa (i.e., plants, birds and butterflies), which may not be representative of biodiversity as a whole. Using data from less well‐studied groups, we show that a wide variety of vertebrate and invertebrate species have moved northwards and uphill in Britain over approximately 25 years, mirroring, and in some cases exceeding, the responses of better‐known groups. 相似文献
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J. Christopher D. Terry;Jacob D. O'Sullivan;Axel G. Rossberg; 《Ecography》2022,2022(5):e06123
Recent developments in understanding and predicting species responses to climate change have emphasised the importance of both environmental variability and consideration of the wider biotic community. However, to date, the interaction between the two has received less attention. Both theoretical and empirical results suggest that the combined effect of environmental variability and interspecific interactions can have strong impacts on existing range limits. Here we explore how competitive interactions and temporal variability can interact with the potential to strongly influence range shift dynamics. We highlight the need to understand these between-process interactions in order to predict how species will respond to global change. In particular, future research will need to move from evaluating possibilities to quantifying their impact. We emphasise the value and utility of empirically parameterised models to determine the direction and relative importance of these forces in natural systems. 相似文献
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Sarah K. Richman Jonathan M. Levine Laura Stefan Christopher A. Johnson 《Global Change Biology》2020,26(5):3052-3064
Climate change is driving species' range shifts, which are in turn disrupting species interactions due to species‐specific differences in their abilities to migrate in response to climate. We evaluated the consequences of asynchronous range shifts in an alpine plant–pollinator community by transplanting replicated alpine meadow turfs downslope along an elevational gradient thereby introducing them to warmer climates and novel plant and pollinator communities. We asked how these novel plant–pollinator interactions affect plant reproduction. We found that pollinator communities differed substantially across the elevation/temperature gradient, suggesting that these plants will likely interact with different pollinator communities with warming climate. Contrary to the expectation that floral visitation would increase monotonically with warmer temperatures at lower elevations, visitation rate to the transplanted communities peaked under intermediate warming at midelevation sites. In contrast, visitation rate generally increased with temperature for the local, lower elevation plant communities surrounding the experimental alpine turfs. For two of three focal plant species in the transplanted high‐elevation community, reproduction declined at warmer sites. For these species, reproduction appears to be dependent on pollinator identity such that reduced reproduction may be attributable to decreased visitation from key pollinator species, such as bumble bees, at warmer sites. Reproduction in the third focal species appears to be primarily driven by overall pollinator visitation rate, regardless of pollinator identity. Taken together, the results suggest climate warming can indirectly affect plant reproduction via changes in plant–pollinator interactions. More broadly, the experiment provides a case study for predicting the outcome of novel species interactions formed under changing climates. 相似文献
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Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly Influenced by climate.However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (PnET-Ⅱ Model) that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 × 200 km areas In Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-Ⅱ model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m2 per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate (-12% to 8%) compared with the influence of future climatic changes (-60% to 25%). The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere. 相似文献
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- Species shifting their ranges under climate change are a conservation dilemma. Range-shifters may be threatened by climate change in their historic range. However, range-shifters are likely to be generalist opportunists, which could mean they could harm aspects of biodiversity in their new ecosystems. Therefore, we need approaches to rapidly assess how range-shifters may integrate into the community of historically resident species.
- The small red-eyed damselfly (Erythromma viridulum) has shifted into the United Kingdom since 1999 and may affect resident Odonata via intraguild predation. We asked whether the damselfly's arrival is associated with a decline in resident Odonata.
- We harnessed the British Dragonfly Society's dataset, using records from 49,788 site visits between 2000 and 2015 to construct dynamic species occupancy models for 17 resident UK Odonata. We estimated the potential effect of E. viridulum presence on the probability that each species would persist at a given site, while controlling for potential effects of climate and recording effort.
- On average, dragonflies (Anisoptera) persisted more frequently at sites where E. viridulum had established, while damselflies (Zygoptera) showed no change in persistence. Nevertheless, two resident damselflies, including E. viridulum's congener, disappeared more frequently when the range-shifter established.
- We suggest that E. viridulum poses minimal risk to most UK resident Odonata. Rather, E. viridulum may be differentially establishing in areas with good habitat quality, where many species of historically resident Odonata are also found. Therefore, high quality, biodiverse sites may become home to increasing numbers of range-shifters in future. Our approach permits rapid detection of how range-shifters are integrating into resident biota.
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Richard C. Brusca John F. Wiens Wallace M. Meyer Jeff Eble Kim Franklin Jonathan T. Overpeck Wendy Moore 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(10):3307-3319
Models analyzing how Southwestern plant communities will respond to climate change predict that increases in temperature will lead to upward elevational shifts of montane species. We tested this hypothesis by reexamining Robert Whittaker's 1963 plant transect in the Santa Catalina Mountains of southern Arizona, finding that this process is already well underway. Our survey, five decades after Whittaker's, reveals large changes in the elevational ranges of common montane plants, while mean annual rainfall has decreased over the past 20 years, and mean annual temperatures increased 0.25°C/decade from 1949 to 2011 in the Tucson Basin. Although elevational changes in species are individualistic, significant overall upward movement of the lower elevation boundaries, and elevational range contractions, have occurred. This is the first documentation of significant upward shifts of lower elevation range boundaries in Southwestern montane plant species over decadal time, confirming that previous hypotheses are correct in their prediction that mountain communities in the Southwest will be strongly impacted by warming, and that the Southwest is already experiencing a rapid vegetation change. 相似文献
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Effects of climate change on species occupying distinct areas during their life cycle are still unclear. Moreover, although effects of climate change have widely been studied at the species level, less is known about community responses. Here, we test whether and how the composition of wader (Charadrii) assemblages, breeding in high latitude and wintering from Europe to Africa, is affected by climate change over 33 years. We calculated the temporal trend in the community temperature index (CTI), which measures the balance between cold and hot dwellers present in species assemblages. We found a steep increase in the CTI, which reflects a profound change in assemblage composition in response to recent climate change. This study provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence of a strong community response of migratory species to climate change in their wintering areas. 相似文献
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Sean A. Parks Lisa M. Holsinger John T. Abatzoglou Caitlin E. Littlefield Katherine A. Zeller 《Global Change Biology》2023,29(10):2681-2696
Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate. 相似文献
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Coincident with recent global warming, species have shifted their geographic distributions to cooler environments, generally by moving along thermal axes to higher latitudes, higher elevations or deeper waters. While these shifts allow organisms to track their thermal niche, these three thermal axes also covary with non-climatic abiotic factors that could pose challenges to range-shifting plants and animals. Such novel abiotic conditions also present an unappreciated pitfall for researchers – from both empirical and predictive viewpoints – who study the redistribution of species under global climate change. Climate, particularly temperature, is often assumed to be the primary abiotic factor in limiting species distributions, and decades of thermal biology research have made the correlative and mechanistic understanding of temperature the most accessible and commonly used response to any abiotic factor. Receiving far less attention, however, is that global gradients in oxygen, light, pressure, pH and water availability also covary with latitude, elevation, and/or ocean depth, and species show strong physiological and behavioral adaptations to these abiotic variables within their historic ranges. Here, we discuss how non-climatic abiotic factors may disrupt climate-driven range shifts, as well as the variety of adaptations species use to overcome abiotic conditions, emphasizing which taxa may be most limited in this capacity. We highlight the need for scientists to extend their research to incorporate non-climatic, abiotic factors to create a more ecologically relevant understanding of how plants and animals interact with the environment, particularly in the face of global climate change. We demonstrate how additional abiotic gradients can be integrated into global climate change biology to better inform expectations and provide recommendations for addressing the challenge of predicting future species distributions in novel environments. 相似文献
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Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species. 相似文献
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Thomas Wu Mohammad Arshad Imrit Zahra Movahedinia Jude Kong R. Iestyn Woolway Sapna Sharma 《Diversity & distributions》2023,29(2):300-315
Aim
Many freshwater fishes are migrating poleward to more thermally suitable habitats in response to warming climates. In this study, we aimed to identify which freshwater fishes are most sensitive to climatic changes and asked: (i) how fast are lakes warming? (ii) how fast are fishes moving? and (iii) are freshwater fishes tracking climate?Location
Ontario, Canada.Methods
We assembled a database containing time series data on climate and species occurrence data from 10,732 lakes between 1986 and 2017. We calculated the rate of lake warming and climate velocity for these lakes. Climate velocities were compared with biotic velocities, specifically the rate at which the northernmost extent of each species shifted north.Results
Lakes in Ontario warmed by 0.2°C decade−1 on average, at a climate velocity of 9.4 km decade−1 between 1986 and 2017. In response, some freshwater fishes have shifted their northern range boundaries with considerable interspecific variation ranging from species moving southwards at a rate of −58.9 km decade−1 to species ranges moving northwards at a rate of 83.6 km decade−1 over the same time period. More freshwater fish species are moving into northern lakes in Ontario than those being lost. Generally, predators are moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey fishes are being lost from northern lakes.Main Conclusions
The concurrent loss of cooler refugia, combined with antagonistic competitive and predatory interactions with the range expanding species, has resulted in many commercially important predators moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey species have contracted their northern range edge boundaries. Trophic partitioning of range shifts highlights a previously undocumented observation of the loss of freshwater fishes from lower trophic levels in response to climate-driven migrations. 相似文献18.
The disruptive potential of floods, drought, ice, and high water temperature on fishes in streams have been well documented. We examined the relationship between unexpected high flow events, low flow events coupled with low and high air temperature events, and a variety of ecological measures frequently used to quantify fish communities in streams, e.g. density. We developed a severity index to quantify concurrent extreme disturbances occurring over annual and summer periods. We anticipated that years or summers of high severity would result in changes in the fish community measures, e.g. low abundance. Despite the occurrence of severe events, there were relatively few instances of environmental severity resulting in consistent negative/positive changes in fish communities. Of the fish community measures, young‐of‐the‐year (YOY) growth was most responsive to extremes. Low flow in combination with high temperature events significantly lowered YOY growth; whereas, unexpected high flows increased growth. Unexpected high flow events were associated with a significant negative effect on fish abundance and positive effects on biomass, YOY growth, and diversity during the summer period. The predictive power of abiotic–biotic regressions from the summer time period was generally greater than that from the annual time period. We suggest that high amounts of groundwater flow into the streams may buffer the impact of extreme environmental conditions. Our methodology of measuring extremes in flow and air temperature could be implemented over much larger scales for use in long‐term monitoring impacts related to climate and land use change. Copyright © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2012 相似文献
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Alice Boit Boris Sakschewski Lena Boysen Ana Cano‐Crespo Jan Clement Nashieli Garcia‐alaniz Kasper Kok Melanie Kolb Fanny Langerwisch Anja Rammig Ren Sachse Michiel van Eupen Werner von Bloh Delphine Clara Zemp Kirsten Thonicke 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(11):3689-3701
Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. 相似文献
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Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate‐change‐related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community‐level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold‐adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm‐adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool‐adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm‐adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold‐adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food‐web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly. 相似文献