Empirical phylogenies and species abundance distributions are consistent with preequilibrium dynamics of neutral community models with gene flow

Community characteristics reflect past ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Here, we investigate whether it is possible to obtain realistically shaped modeled communities–that is with phylogenetic trees and species abundance distributions shaped similarly to typical empirical bird and mammal communities–from neutral community models. To test the effect of gene flow, we contrasted two spatially explicit individual‐based neutral models: one with protracted speciation, delayed by gene flow, and one with point mutation speciation, unaffected by gene flow. The former produced more realistic communities (shape of phylogenetic tree and species‐abundance distribution), consistent with gene flow being a key process in macro‐evolutionary dynamics. Earlier models struggled to capture the empirically observed branching tempo in phylogenetic trees, as measured by the gamma statistic. We show that the low gamma values typical of empirical trees can be obtained in models with protracted speciation, in preequilibrium communities developing from an initially abundant and widespread species. This was even more so in communities sampled incompletely, particularly if the unknown species are the youngest. Overall, our results demonstrate that the characteristics of empirical communities that we have studied can, to a large extent, be explained through a purely neutral model under preequilibrium conditions.     

Evolutionary and ecological causes of species richness patterns in North American angiosperm trees

Climate and evolutionary factors (e.g. diversification, time‐for‐speciation, niche conservatism) are both thought to be major drivers of species richness in regional assemblages. However, few studies have simultaneously investigated the relative effects of climate and evolutionary factors on species richness across a broad geographical extent. Here, we assess their relative effects on species richness of angiosperm trees across North America. Species richness of angiosperm trees in 1175 regional assemblages were related to climate and phylogenetic structure using a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Climate was quantified based on the mean temperature of the coldest month and mean annual precipitation. Evolutionary factors (time‐for‐speciation vs diversification) were inferred from phylogeny‐based measures of mean root distance, phylogenetic species variability, and net relatedness index. We found that at the continental scale, species richness is correlated with temperature and precipitation with approximately similar strength. In the SEM with net relatedness index and phylogenetic species variability and with all the 1175 quadrats, the total direct effect size of phylogenetic structure on species richness is greater than the total direct effect size of climate on species richness by a factor of 3.7. The specific patterns of phylogenetic structure (i.e. greater phylogenetic distances in more species rich regions) are consistent with the idea that time and niche conservatism drive richness patterns in North American angiosperm trees. We conclude that angiosperm tree species richness in regional assemblages in North America is more strongly related to patterns of phylogenetic relatedness than to climatic variation. The results of the present study support the idea that climatic and evolutionary explanations for richness patterns are not in conflict, and that evolutionary processes explain both the relationship between climate and richness and substantial variation in richness that is independent of climate.     

A new balance index for phylogenetic trees

Several indices that measure the degree of balance of a rooted phylogenetic tree have been proposed so far in the literature. In this work we define and study a new index of this kind, which we call the total cophenetic index: the sum, over all pairs of different leaves, of the depth of their lowest common ancestor. This index makes sense for arbitrary trees, can be computed in linear time and it has a larger range of values and a greater resolution power than other indices like Colless’ or Sackin’s. We compute its maximum and minimum values for arbitrary and binary trees, as well as exact formulas for its expected value for binary trees under the Yule and the uniform models of evolution. As a byproduct of this study, we obtain an exact formula for the expected value of the Sackin index under the uniform model, a result that seems to be new in the literature.     

CENTRAL MOMENTS AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF COLLESS'S COEFFICIENT OF TREE IMBALANCE

The great increase in the number of phylogenetic studies of a wide variety of organisms in recent decades has focused considerable attention on the balance of phylogenetic trees—the degree to which sister clades within a tree tend to be of equal size—for at least two reasons: (1) the degree of balance of a tree may affect the accuracy of estimates of it; (2) the degree of balance, or imbalance, of a tree may reveal something about the macroevolutionary processes that produced it. In particular, variation among lineages in rates of speciation or extinction is expected to produce trees that are less balanced than those that result from phylogenetic evolution in which each extant species of a group has the same probability of speciation or extinction. Several coefficients for measuring the balance or imbalance of phylogenetic trees have been proposed. I focused on Colless's coefficient of imbalance (7) for its mathematical tractability and ease of interpretation. Earlier work on this statistic produced exact methods only for calculating the expected value. In those studies, the variance and confidence limits, which are necessary for testing the departure of observed values of I from the expected, were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. I developed recursion equations that allow exact calculation of the mean, variance, skewness, and complete probability distribution of I for two different probability-generating models for bifurcating tree shapes. The Equal-Rates Markov (ERM) model assumes that trees grow by the random speciation and extinction of extant species, with all species that are extant at a given time having the same probability of speciation or extinction. The Equal Probability (EP) model assumes that all possible labeled trees for a given number of terminal taxa have the same probability of occurring. Examples illustrate how these theoretically derived probabilities and parameters may be used to test whether the evolution of a monophyletic group or set of monophyletic groups has proceeded according to a Markov model with equal rates of speciation and extinction among species, that is, whether there has been significant variation among lineages in expected rates of speciation or extinction.     

Recovering speciation and extinction dynamics based on phylogenies

Phylogenetic trees of only extant species contain information about the underlying speciation and extinction pattern. In this review, I provide an overview over the different methodologies that recover the speciation and extinction dynamics from phylogenetic trees. Broadly, the methods can be divided into two classes: (i) methods using the phylogenetic tree shapes (i.e. trees without branch length information) allowing us to test for speciation rate variation and (ii) methods using the phylogenetic trees with branch length information allowing us to quantify speciation and extinction rates. I end the article with an overview on limitations, open questions and challenges of the reviewed methodology.     

A geographical model of high species diversity

Several cases of high species diversity, for example in tropical rain forests, imply that speciation has been frequent or rapid. However, how speciation could proceed so frequently as to generate extraordinary diversity still remains unsolved, despite recent advancements of diverse theories of allopatric and sympatric speciation. This paper presents a theoretical model that demonstrates the process of frequent speciation by means of geographical fragmentation. We focus on allopatric speciation and explore the evolutionary effect of fragmentation and extinction of demes (subpopulations) in a widespread species or species group. After a large contagious population of a single species is fragmented into demes, extinction of some demes could result in isolation of multiple demes. Thus, several demes could become good species simultaneously through the process of allopatric speciation. We apply the random extinction method to this fragmentation process where demes become randomly extinct. The present model illustrates that frequent speciation could occur in communities where large environmental changes frequently take place.     

Phylogenetically nested comparisons for testing correlates of species richness: a simulation study of continuous variables

Abstract.— Explaining the uneven distribution of species among lineages is one of the oldest questions in evolution. Proposed correlations between biological traits and species diversity are routinely tested by making comparisons between phylogenetic sister clades. Several recent studies have used nested sister-clade comparisons to test hypotheses linking continuously varying traits, such as body size, with diversity. Evaluating the findings of these studies is complicated because they differ in the index of species richness difference used, the way in which trait differences were treated, and the statistical tests employed. In this paper, we use simulations to compare the performance of four species richness indices, two choices about the branch lengths used to estimate trait values for internal nodes and two statistical tests under a range of models of clade growth and character evolution. All four indices returned appropriate Type I error rates when the assumptions of the method were met and when branch lengths were set proportional to time. Only two of the indices were robust to the different evolutionary models and to different choices of branch lengths and statistical tests. These robust indices had comparable power under one nonnull scenario. Regression through the origin was consistently more powerful than the t -test, and the choice of branch lengths exerts a strong effect on both the validity and power. In the light of our simulations, we re-evaluate the findings of those who have previously used nested comparisons in the context of species richness. We provide a set of simple guidelines to maximize the performance of phylogenetically nested comparisons in tests of putative correlates of species richness.     

Phylogenetic conservatism and biogeographic affinity influence woody plant species richness–climate relationships in eastern Eurasia

Mechanisms underlying species richness patterns remain a central yet controversial issue in biology. Climate has been regarded as a major determinant of species richness. However, the relative influences of different evolutionary processes, (i.e. niche conservatism, diversification rate and time for speciation) on species richness–climate relationships remain to be tested. Here, using newly compiled distribution maps for 11 422 woody plant species in eastern Eurasia, we estimated species richness patterns for all species and for families with tropical and temperate affinities separately, and explored the phylogenetic signals in species richness patterns of different families and their relationships with contemporary climate and climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We further compared the effects of niche conservatism (represented by contemporary-ancestral climatic niches differences), diversification rate and time for speciation (represented by family age) on variation in the slopes of species richness–climate relationships. We found that winter coldness was the best predictor for species richness patterns of most tropical families while Quaternary climate change was the best predictor for those of most temperate families. Species richness patterns of closely-related families were more similar than those of distantly-related families within eudicots, and significant phylogenetic signals characterized the slopes of species richness–climate relationships across all angiosperm families. Contemporary-ancestral climatic niche differences dominated variation in the relationships between family-level species richness and most climate variables. Our results indicate significant phylogenetic conservatism in family-level species richness patterns and their relationships with contemporary climate within eudicots. These findings shed light on the mechanisms underlying large-scale species richness patterns and suggest that ancestral climatic niche may influence the evolution of species richness–climate relationships in plants through niche conservatism.     

The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.     

Environment, area, and diversification in the species-rich flowering plant family Iridaceae

Phylogenetic analyses provide a means to explore evolutionary explanations for regional variation in species richness. The environment might also explain much of the previously unexplained imbalance of phylogenetic trees. We use data on geographic distribution and phylogenetic affinity to examine correlates of species richness among genera of irises (family: Iridaceae). Irises display strong phylogenetic imbalance, with a few clades containing a disproportionate number of species, most notably those found in the dry Mediterranean climate of the Cape of South Africa. The abiotic environment and area are strong predictors of iris species richness, but environment alone is insufficient to explain the high diversity of Cape clades. One possible explanation is that the interaction between biological traits and environment resulted in the unusually high diversification rates in the region.     

Lineages-through-time plots of neutral models for speciation

Drawing inferences about macroevolutionary processes from phylogenetic trees is a fundamental challenge in evolutionary biology. Understanding stochastic models for speciation is an essential step in solving this challenge. We consider a neutral class of stochastic models for speciation, the constant rate birth-death process. For trees with n extant species - which might be derived from bigger trees via random taxon sampling - we calculate the expected time of the kth speciation event (k=1,...,n-1). Further, for a tree with n extant species, we calculate the density and expectation for the number of lineages at any time between the origin of the process and the present. With the developed methods, expected lineages-through-time (LTT) plots can be drawn analytically. The effect of random taxon sampling on LTT plots is discussed.     

Estimating phylogenetic relationships despite discordant gene trees across loci: the species tree of a diverse species group of feather mites (Acari: Proctophyllodidae)

With the increased availability of multilocus sequence data, the lack of concordance of gene trees estimated for independent loci has focused attention on both the biological processes producing the discord and the methodologies used to estimate phylogenetic relationships. What has emerged is a suite of new analytical tools for phylogenetic inference--species tree approaches. In contrast to traditional phylogenetic methods that are stymied by the idiosyncrasies of gene trees, approaches for estimating species trees explicitly take into account the cause of discord among loci and, in the process, provides a direct estimate of phylogenetic history (i.e. the history of species divergence, not divergence of specific loci). We illustrate the utility of species tree estimates with an analysis of a diverse group of feather mites, the pinnatus species group (genus Proctophyllodes). Discord among four sequenced nuclear loci is consistent with theoretical expectations, given the short time separating speciation events (as evident by short internodes relative to terminal branch lengths in the trees). Nevertheless, many of the relationships are well resolved in a Bayesian estimate of the species tree; the analysis also highlights ambiguous aspects of the phylogeny that require additional loci. The broad utility of species tree approaches is discussed, and specifically, their application to groups with high speciation rates--a history of diversification with particular prevalence in host/parasite systems where species interactions can drive rapid diversification.     

Maximum tree: a consistent estimator of the species tree

We propose a model based approach to use multiple gene trees to estimate the species tree. The coalescent process requires that gene divergences occur earlier than species divergences when there is any polymorphism in the ancestral species. Under this scenario, speciation times are restricted to be smaller than the corresponding gene split times. The maximum tree (MT) is the tree with the largest possible speciation times in the space of species trees restricted by available gene trees. If all populations have the same population size, the MT is the maximum likelihood estimate of the species tree. It can be shown the MT is a consistent estimator of the species tree even when the MT is built upon the estimates of the true gene trees if the gene tree estimates are statistically consistent. The MT converges in probability to the true species tree at an exponential rate.     

Mutualistic mimicry enhances species diversification through spatial segregation and extension of the ecological niche space

Species richness varies among clades, yet the drivers of diversification creating this variation remain poorly understood. While abiotic factors likely drive some of the variation in species richness, ecological interactions may also contribute. Here, we examine one class of potential contributors to species richness variation that is particularly poorly understood: mutualistic interactions. We aim to elucidate large‐scale patterns of diversification mediated by mutualistic interactions using a spatially explicit population‐based model. We focus on mutualistic Müllerian mimicry between conspicuous toxic prey species, where convergence in color patterns emerges from predators' learning process. To investigate the effects of Müllerian mimicry on species diversification, we assume that some speciation events stem from shifts in ecological niches, and can also be associated with shift in mimetic color pattern. Through the emergence of spatial mosaics of mimetic color patterns, Müllerian mimicry constrains the geographical distribution of species and allows different species occupying similar ecological niches to exist simultaneously in different regions. Müllerian mimicry and the resulting spatial segregation of mimetic color patterns thus generate more balanced phylogenetic trees and increase overall species diversity. Our study sheds light on complex effects of Müllerian mimicry on ecological, spatial, and phylogenetic diversification.     

Testing historical explanations for gradients in species richness in heliconiine butterflies of tropical America

We compiled a large database of 58 059 point locality records for 70 species and 434 subspecies of heliconiine butterflies and used these data to test evolutionary hypotheses for their diversification. To study geographical patterns of diversity and contact zones, we mapped: (1) species richness; (2) mean molecular phylogenetic terminal branch length; (3) subspecies richness and the proportion of specimens that were subspecific hybrids, and (4) museum sampling effort. Heliconiine species richness is high throughout the Amazon region and peaks near the equator in the foothills and middle elevations of the eastern Andes. Mean phylogenetic terminal branch length is lowest in the eastern Andes and tends to be low in species‐rich areas. By contrast, areas of high subspecies richness, where subspecies overlap in range and/or hybridize, are concentrated along the course of the Amazon River, with the eastern Andes slopes and foothills relatively depauperate in terms of local intraspecific phenotypic diversity. Spatial gradients in heliconiine species richness in the Neotropics are consistent with the hypothesis that species richness gradients are driven at least in part by variation in speciation and/or extinction rates, resulting in observed gradients in mean phylogenetic branch length, rather than via evolutionary age or niche conservatism alone. The data obtained in the present study, coupled with individual case studies of recently evolved Heliconius species, suggest that the radiation of heliconiine butterflies occurred predominantly on the eastern slopes of the Andes in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, as well as in the upper/middle Amazon basin. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 479–497.     

Phylogenetic networks from multi-labelled trees

It is now quite well accepted that the evolutionary past of certain species is better represented by phylogenetic networks as opposed to trees. For example, polyploids are typically thought to have resulted through hybridization and duplication, processes that are probably not best represented as bifurcating speciation events. Based on the knowledge of a multi-labelled tree relating collection of polyploids, we present a canonical construction of a phylogenetic network that exhibits the tree. In addition, we prove that the resulting network is in some well-defined sense a minimal network having this property.     

Neutral biodiversity theory can explain the imbalance of phylogenetic trees but not the tempo of their diversification

Numerous evolutionary studies have sought to explain the distribution of diversity across the limbs of the tree of life. At the same time, ecological studies have sought to explain differences in diversity and relative abundance within and among ecological communities. Traditionally, these patterns have been considered separately, but models that consider processes operating at the level of individuals, such as neutral biodiversity theory (NBT), can provide a link between them. Here, we compare evolutionary dynamics across a suite of NBT models. We show that NBT can yield phylogenetic tree topologies with imbalance closely resembling empirical observations. In general, metacommunities that exhibit greater disparity in abundance are characterized by more imbalanced phylogenetic trees. However, NBT fails to capture the tempo of diversification as represented by the distribution of branching events through time. We suggest that population-level processes might therefore help explain the asymmetry of phylogenetic trees, but that tree shape might mislead estimates of evolutionary rates unless the diversification process is modeled explicitly.     

What are “tippy” and “stemmy” phylogenies? Resolving a phylogenetic terminological tangle

Phylogenetic stemminess is one of the most popular metrics of tree shape among evolutionary biologists. The index was originally described by Fiala & Sokal (1985) as the proportion of the total length of the branches of a phylogenetic clade (including the subtending branch or “stem”) that is accounted for by the length of the subtending branch of the clade. Accordingly, phylogenies with high stemminess would show accumulation of speciation events toward the present, whereas those with low‐stemminess values would reflect the opposite pattern (i.e., speciation events skewed toward the root node, Fig.1).     

Community assembly and diversification in Indo-Pacific coral reef fishes

Theories of species coexistence have played a central role in ecology and evolutionary studies of the origin and maintenance of biodiversity in highly diverse communities. The concept of niche and associated theories predict that competition for available ecological space leads to a ceiling in species richness that influences further diversification patterns. By contrast, the neutral theory supports that speciation is stochastic and diversity independent. We examined the phylogenetic community structure and diversification rates in three families and 14 sites within coral reef fish communities from the Indian and Pacific oceans. Using the phylogenetic relationships among 157 species estimated with 2300 bp of mitochondrial DNA, we tested predictions in terms of species coexistence from the neutral and niche theories. At the regional scale, our findings suggest that phylogenetic community structure shifts during community assembly to a pattern of dispersion as a consequence of allopatric speciation in recent times but overall, variations in diversification rates did not relate with sea level changes. At the local scale, the phylogenetic community structure is consistent with a neutral model of community assembly since no departure from a random sorting of species was observed. The present results support a neutral model of community assembly as a consequence of the stochastic and unpredictable nature of coral reefs favoring generalist and sedentary species competing for living space rather than trophic resources. As a consequence, the observed decrease in diversification rates may be seen as the result of a limited supply of living space as expected in a finite island model.     

The concordance of gene trees and species trees at two linked loci

The gene genealogies of two linked loci in three species are analyzed using a series of Markov chain models. We calculate the probability that the gene tree of one locus is concordant with the species tree, given that the gene tree of the other locus is concordant. We define a threshold value of the recombination rate, r*, to be the rate for which the difference between the conditional probability of concordance and its asymptotic value is reduced to 5% of the initial difference. We find that, although r* depends in a complicated way on the times of speciation and effective population sizes, it is always relatively small, <10/N4, where N4 is the effective size of the species represented by the internal branch of the species tree. Consequently, the concordance of gene trees of neutral loci with the species tree is expected to be on roughly the same length scale on the chromosome as the extent of significant linkage disequilibrium within species unless the effective size of contemporary populations is very different from the effective sizes of their ancestral populations. Both balancing selection and selective sweeps can result in much longer genomic regions having concordant gene trees.