Is climate change causing the range contraction of Cape Rock-jumpers (Chaetops frenatus)?

Species distribution models often suggest strong links between climate and species' distribution boundaries and project large distribution shifts in response to climate change. However, attributing distribution shifts to climate change requires more than correlative models. One idea is to examine correlates of the processes that cause distribution shifts, namely colonization and local extinction, by using dynamic occupancy models. The Cape Rock-jumper (Chaetops frenatus) has disappeared over most of its distribution where temperatures are the highest. We used dynamic occupancy models to analyse Cape Rock-jumper distribution with respect to climate (mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter), vegetation (proportion of natural vegetation, fynbos) and land-use type (protected areas). Detection/non-detection data were collected over two phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP): 1987–1991 (SABAP1) and 2008–2014 (SABAP2). The model described the contraction of the Cape Rock-jumper's distribution between SABAP1 and SABAP2 well. Occupancy probability during SABAP1 increased with the proportion of fynbos and protected area per grid cell, and decreased with increases in mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter. Mean extinction probability increased with mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter, although the associated confidence intervals were wide. Nonetheless, our results showed a clear correlation between climate and the distribution boundaries of the Cape Rock-jumper, and in particular, the species' aversion for higher temperatures. The data were less conclusive on whether the observed range contraction was linked to climate change or not. Examining the processes underlying distribution shifts requires large datasets and should lead to a better understanding of the drivers of these shifts.     

The effects of phenological mismatches on demography

Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.     

Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

A comparison of the efficiencies of the shotgun and the bow in neotropical forest hunting

Whenever introduced into Amazonia and its neighboring regions, the shotgun has quickly replaced the bow and arrow and other aboriginal weapons of the hunt. The quick and widespread adoption of the shotgun is plainly a matter of its superiority over most aboriginal weapons. This paper compares the hunting efficiencies of the shotgun and the bow by means of a controlled field experiment among the Ye'kwana and Yanomamö Indians of the Upper Orinoco River of southern Venezuela. It also examines the impact of the shotgun on local animal populations and the economic changes brought about by the need to cash-crop in order to purchase Western hunting technology.Funds for the research and writing of this paper were made possible by an NIMH predoctoral fellowship to Napoleon A. Chagnon, Grant No. NIMH 5 R01 MH 26008-SSR.