Wind Speed during Migration Influences the Survival,Timing of Breeding,and Productivity of a Neotropical Migrant,Setophaga petechia

Over the course of the annual cycle, migratory bird populations can be impacted by environmental conditions in regions separated by thousands of kilometers. We examine how climatic conditions during discrete periods of the annual cycle influence the demography of a nearctic-neotropical migrant population of yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia), that breed in western Canada and overwinter in Mexico. We demonstrate that wind conditions during spring migration are the best predictor of apparent annual adult survival, male arrival date, female clutch initiation date and, via these timing effects, annual productivity. We find little evidence that conditions during the wintering period influence breeding phenology and apparent annual survival. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic conditions experienced by migrants during the migratory period and indicates that geography may play a role in which period most strongly impacts migrant populations.     

Selection and evolutionary potential of spring arrival phenology in males and females of a migratory songbird

The timing of annual life‐history events affects survival and reproduction of all organisms. A changing environment can perturb phenological adaptations and an important question is if populations can evolve fast enough to track the environmental changes. Yet, little is known about selection and evolutionary potential of traits determining the timing of crucial annual events. Migratory species, which travel between different climatic regions, are particularly affected by global environmental changes. To increase our understanding of evolutionary potential and selection of timing traits, we investigated the quantitative genetics of arrival date at the breeding ground using a multigenerational pedigree of a natural great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) population. We found significant heritability of 16.4% for arrival date and directional selection for earlier arrival in both sexes acting through reproductive success, but not through lifespan. Mean arrival date advanced with 6 days over 20 years, which is in exact accordance with our predicted evolutionary response based on the breeder's equation. However, this phenotypic change is unlikely to be caused by microevolution, because selection seems mainly to act on the nongenetic component of the trait. Furthermore, demographical changes could also not account for the advancing arrival date. Instead, a strong correlation between spring temperatures and population mean arrival date suggests that phenotypic plasticity best explains the advancement of arrival date in our study population. Our study dissects the evolutionary and environmental forces that shape timing traits and thereby increases knowledge of how populations cope with rapidly changing environments.     

Protandry, sexual selection and climate change

Protandry refers to the earlier appearance of males before females at sites of reproduction. Sexual selection has been hypothesized to give rise to sex differences in benefits and costs of early arrival, thereby selecting for earlier appearance by the sex subject to more intense sexual selection. If sexual selection is more intense, there is a greater premium on early arrival among individuals of the chosen sex because of direct selection for earlier arrival. This hypothesis leads to the prediction that changes in the costs and benefits of early arrival related to changes in environmental conditions should particularly affect the sex that arrives first and hence the degree of protandry. I tested this hypothesis using the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica. During 1971–2003, the degree of protandry increased significantly in a Danish population because males advanced arrival date while females did not. This earlier arrival by males compared with females was correlated with a significant increase by over 1.2 standard deviations in the length of the outermost tail feathers of males, a secondary sexual character, suggesting direct selection on both protandry and the secondary sexual character. Environmental conditions during spring migration in Northern Africa, as reflected by the normalized difference vegetation index, have deteriorated since 1984, resulting in increased mortality among males during spring migration, but not among females, and this deterioration of climatic conditions was positively correlated with an increasing degree of protandry. Likewise, an increase in April temperatures at the breeding grounds during recent decades is positively correlated with increased protandry, apparently because males can arrive earlier without increasing the fitness cost of early arrival. Local population size did not predict changes in arrival date. These findings suggest that rapid changes in climate can cause a change in degree of protandry and secondary sexual characters.     

What affects the magnitude of change in first arrival dates of migrant birds?

We analysed which among four factors (mean first arrival date, migration distance, changes in population size, detectability of species) influenced the magnitude of change (regression coefficient) in the first arrival dates of 30 migrant bird species in western Poland during 1983–2003. An examination suggested that several of these factors could be important: the regression coefficient was positively related to mean first arrival date (early species advancing their arrival date more) and negatively with change in population size (species in decline changing less). Moreover, significant differences in regression coefficient were detected between short and long distance migrants and between low detectable and highly detectable species. Undertaking a principal components analysis on the four factors produced an axis explaining 59% of the variance and whose positive values were associated with late arriving, long distance and low detectable species which were more likely to be in decline. However, the multi-collinearity of these factors is a problem that cannot be resolved here and we recommend that further work from different areas is needed to tease apart these effects.     

Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change

Global warming has led to earlier spring arrival of migratory birds, but the extent of this advancement varies greatly among species, and it remains uncertain to what degree these changes are phenotypically plastic responses or microevolutionary adaptations to changing environmental conditions. We suggest that sexual selection could help to understand this variation, since early spring arrival of males is favoured by female choice. Climate change could weaken the strength of natural selection opposing sexual selection for early migration, which would predict greatest advancement in species with stronger female choice. We test this hypothesis comparatively by investigating the degree of long-term change in spring passage at two ringing stations in northern Europe in relation to a synthetic estimate of the strength of female choice, composed of degree of extra-pair paternity, relative testes size and degree of sexually dichromatic plumage colouration. We found that species with a stronger index of sexual selection have indeed advanced their date of spring passage to a greater extent. This relationship was stronger for the changes in the median passage date of the whole population than for changes in the timing of first-arriving individuals, suggesting that selection has not only acted on protandrous males. These results suggest that sexual selection may have an impact on the responses of organisms to climate change, and knowledge of a species' mating system might help to inform attempts at predicting these.     

Multi‐decadal trends in spring arrival of avian migrants to the central Arctic coast of Alaska: effects of environmental and ecological factors

Warming in the Arctic has caused the transition from winter to summer to occur weeks earlier over the last half century, yet little is known about whether avian migrants have altered their timing of arrival on breeding areas to match this earlier seasonal transition. Over a 50‐yr period, we examined trends in the timing of the first arrival for 16 avian migrant species at the terminus of their northward migration along the central Arctic coast of Alaska and compared these trends to factors potentially influencing migration phenology. Date of first arrival occurred an average of 0.12 d yr^?1 or 6 d (range = 3–10 d) earlier across all species and did not differ significantly among species between 1964 and 2013. Local climatic variables, particularly temperature, had a greater effect on a species first arrival date than did large‐scale climatic predictors. First arrival date was 1.03 d earlier for every 1°C annual change in temperature, but there was nearly a 2‐fold difference in the range of responses across species (0.69–1.33 d °C^?1), implying that some species did better than others at timing their arrival with changing temperature. There was weak support for an influence of foraging strategy, migration distance, and flight path on timing of first arrival. Our findings, like others from temperate latitudes, indicate that avian migrants are responsive to changing environmental conditions, though some species appear to be more adaptive than others.     

Temperature‐related increases in grass growth and greater competition for food drive earlier migrational departure of wintering Whooper Swans

Understanding the departure decisions of migratory birds is critical for determining how changing climatic conditions will influence subsequent arrival times on the breeding grounds. A long‐term dataset (1972–2008) of Whooper Swan Cygnus cygnus departure dates from a wintering site in Ireland was used to assess the factors determining the timing of migration. Early and late migrating swans showed different departure patterns. Earlier wintering ground departure was more pronounced for the first 50% of the population than the last 10% of departing individuals. Earlier departure was associated with an increase in February temperatures at the wintering site for all departure phases except the date when the last individual departed. The date by which the first 50% of Swans had departed was earlier with increasing numbers of wintering Swans, suggesting that competition on the wintering grounds may further influence the timing of departure. The results also suggested that departure is mediated by the influence of spring temperature on food resources, with increased February grass growth in warmer years enabling earlier departure of migrating Swans. To determine why arrival dates in the breeding ground have altered, environmental conditions in the wintering grounds must be taken into account.     

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the “arrival constraint” hypothesis

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.     

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982–2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift (Apus apus), nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow (Hirundo rustica), and house martin (Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling (Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow (Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.     

Climatic effects on arrival and laying dates in a long-distance migrant, the Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis

Long‐distance migrants may respond to climate change in breeding, wintering or staging area by changing their phenology. The geographical variation in such responses (e.g. coastal vs. continental Europe) and the relative importance of climate at different spatial scales remain unclear. Here we analysed variation in first arrival dates (FADs) and laying dates of the Collared Flycatcher Ficedula albicollis in a central European population, from 1973 to 2002. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlated weakly with local temperature during the laying period. Decreasing spring temperatures until 1980 were associated with a trend towards later laying. The rate of warming (0.2 °C per year) and laying advancement (0.4 days per year) since 1980 are amongst the highest values reported elsewhere. This long‐term trend in laying date was largely explained by the change in climatic factors. The negative effect of local spring temperature on laying was relatively stronger than that of NAO. The number of clutches initiated on a particular day was marginally affected by the temperature 3 days prior to laying and the response of females to daily variation in temperature did not change over years. Correspondence between the average population‐level and the individual‐level responses of laying date to climate variation suggests that the advancement of laying was due to phenotypic plasticity. Despite warmer springs and advanced laying, FADs did not change over years and were not correlated with local spring temperature. Marginal evidence suggests later departure from wintering grounds and faster migration across staging areas in warmer conditions. Advancement of arrival was probably constrained by low local temperatures in early spring just before arrival that have not changed over years. The interval between first arrival and laying has declined since 1980 (0.5 days per year), but the increasing temperature during that period may have kept the food supply approximately unchanged.     

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes,migratory distance,and arrival distributions

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979–2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.     

Spring phenology and timing of breeding in short‐distance migrant birds: phenotypic responses and offspring recruitment patterns in common goldeneyes

Understanding how organisms adjust breeding dates to exploit resources that affect fitness can provide insights into impacts of climate change on avian demography. For instance, mismatches have been reported in long‐distance migrant bird species when environmental cues experienced during spring migration are decoupled from conditions on breeding grounds. Short‐distance migrant bird species that store reproductive nutrients prior to breeding may avoid or buffer adverse phenological effects. Furthermore, reduced short‐term reproductive success could be offset by higher future recruitment of surviving offspring. We evaluated whether recruitment of locally‐hatched female offspring was related to hatching date alone or strength of mismatched breeding date for 405 individually‐marked adult female common goldeneyes Bucephala clangula (a short‐distance migrant) and their ducklings from a site in central Finland where ice‐out date has advanced by ～ 2 weeks over 24 yr. Path analyses revealed that older, early‐nesting females with good body condition and larger broods recruited the most female offspring. Offspring recruitment decreased strongly among females that bred late relative to other females in the population each year; the extent of mismatched breeding date, i.e. hatching date scaled to annual ice‐out date, was less influential. Overall, most females advanced breeding dates when ice‐out occurred earlier in spring, but some females exhibited greater flexibility in response to ice‐out conditions than did others. In general, directional selection favoured early breeding over a wide range of ice‐out dates. Our results seem most consistent with a hypothesis that some short‐distance migrant species like goldeneyes have the capacity to track and respond appropriately to changing environmental conditions prior to onset of breeding.     

Local temperature fine-tunes the timing of spring migration in birds

Evidence for climate-driven phenological changes is rapidly increasing at all trophic levels. Our current poor knowledge of the detailed control of bird migration from the level of genes and hormonal control to direct physiological and behavioral responses hampers our ability to understand and predict consequences of climatic change for migratory birds. In order to better understand migration phenology and adaptation in environmental changes, we here assess the scale at which weather affects timing of spring migration in passerine birds. We use three commonly used proxies of spring-time climatic conditions: (1) vegetation "greenness" (NDVI) in Europe, (2) local spring temperatures in northern Europe, and (3) the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) as predictors of the phenology of avian migration as well as the strength of their effect on different subsets of populations and the dependence of correlations on species-specific migratory strategy. We analyze phenological patterns of the entire spring migration period in 12 Palaearctic passerine species, drawing on long-term data collected at three locations along a longitudinal gradient situated close to their northern European breeding area. Local temperature was the best single predictor of phenology with the highest explanatory power achieved in combination with NAO. Furthermore, early individuals are more affected by climatic variation compared to individuals on later passage, indicating that climatic change affects subsets of migratory populations differentially. Species wintering closer to the breeding areas were affected more than were those travelling longer distances and this pattern was strongest for the earliest subsets of the population. Overall, our results suggest that at least early subsets of the population are affected by local conditions and early birds use local conditions to fine-tune the date of their spring arrival while individuals arriving later are driven by other factors than local conditions e.g. endogenous control. Understanding what cues migratory organisms use to arrive at an optimum time is important for increasing our knowledge of fundamental issues like decision making in organisms during migration and is crucial for future protection of migratory organisms.     

Adjustment of the annual cycle to climatic change in a long-lived migratory bird species

Climate change has advanced the phenology of many organisms. Migratory animals face particular problems because climate change in the breeding and the wintering range may be asynchronous, preventing rapid response to changing conditions. Advancement in timing of spring migration may have carry-over effects to other parts of the annual cycle, simply because advancement of one event in the annual cycle also advances subsequent events, gradually causing a general shift in the timing of the entire annual cycle. Such a phenotypic shift could generate accumulating effects over the years for individuals, but also across generations. Here we test this novel hypothesis of phenotypic response to climate change by using long-term data on the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea. Mean breeding date advanced by almost three weeks during the last 70 years. Annual arrival date at the breeding grounds during a period of 47 years was predicted by environmental conditions in the winter quarters in the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic and by mean breeding date the previous year. Annual mean breeding date was only marginally determined by timing of arrival the current year, but to a larger extent by arrival date and breeding date the previous year. Learning affected arrival date as shown by a positive correlation between arrival date in year (i+1) relative to breeding date in year (i) and the selective advantage of early breeding in year (i). This provides a mechanism for changes in arrival date being adjusted to changing environmental conditions. This study suggests that adaptation to changing climatic conditions can be achieved through learning from year to year[Current Zoology 55(2):92-101,2009].     

Changes in migration phenology and biometrical traits of Reed,Marsh and Sedge Warblers

Global environmental processes like climate change could severely affect population level migratory behaviour of long range migrant birds. We analyzed changes in migration phenology and biometrics of three closely-related long-distance migrant Acrocephalus species. We used the records of 12 063 Sedge, 12 913 Reed, and 5 409 Marsh Warblers caught and ringed between 1989–2009, at a Hungarian stopover site. Quantile regressions were used to analyse the changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. Median spring arrival date of Sedge and Reed Warblers shifted 6.5 and 7.5 days earlier, respectively. Autumn arrival of all species shifted one (Reed and Marsh Warblers) or two (Sedge Warbler) weeks later. Mean body mass of adult Reed and Marsh Warblers decreased in spring (by 0.3 and 0.2 grams, respectively) and in autumn (by 0.8 and 0.2 grams, respectively) while body mass of adult Sedge Warblers decreased only in autumn (by 0.4 grams). Mean wing length of all species increased significantly (range of change: 0.6–1 mm). Despite the fact that the studied species are closely related, all three have remarkably different migration strategies. However, similar patterns can be observed in the studied parameters, indicating that global processes may have general effects on these species, albeit through markedly different mechanisms.     

Pre-incubation feeding activities and energy budgets of Snow Geese: can food on the breeding grounds influence fecundity?

The potential contribution of early spring feeding conditions in the Arctic to clutch size variation was examined in a population of Lesser Snow Geese Anser caerulescens caerulescens. Behavioural observations were combined with energetic analyses of food material to derive an estimate of the energy budgets of pre-laying and laying females. Food intake of females between arrival on the breeding grounds and incubation was considerable; estimated energy gains in this period were in the same magnitude as the cost of one or several eggs. The pre-laying period spent on the breeding grounds can thus be energetically beneficial rather than costly. Accumulation of resources for reproduction in Snow Geese is a continual process including the breeding grounds, and nutrient limitation after arrival in the Arctic cannot sufficiently explain the environmental component of clutch size variation. The timing of migration and follicle development is such that clutch size decisions are sometimes made during the late stages of migration and some-times after arrival. In the latter case food conditions on the breeding grounds may greatly influence clutch size; in the former case they may still influence readjustments of clutch size after the initial decision. The universal negative correlation between clutch size and laying date in Snow Geese can be explained by negative fitness consequences of late hatching, which outweigh the benefits of delayed laying and further nutrient accumulation. Food shortage on the breeding grounds may sometimes be a secondary factor contributing to seasonal clutch size decline.     

Ecological conditions in wintering and passage areas as determinants of timing of spring migration in trans-Saharan migratory birds

1.?Climate change has been associated with shifts in the timing of biological events, including the spring arrival of migratory birds. Early arrival at breeding sites is an important life-history trait, usually associated with higher breeding success and therefore, susceptible to selection and evolution in response to changing climatic conditions. 2.?Here, we examine the effect of changes in the environmental conditions of wintering and passage areas on the mean passage time of 13 trans-Saharan passerines during their spring migration through the western Mediterranean over the 15 years from 1993 to 2007. 3.?We found that most of the species studied have been advancing the timing of their passage in recent years. However, annual variation in the mean date of passage was positively correlated with vegetation growth (measured as the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) both in the Sahel (the region of departure) and in northern Africa (the passage area). Thus, migration dates were delayed in years with high primary productivity in passage and wintering zones. All species seem to respond similarly to NDVI in the Sahel; however, late migrants were less affected by ecological conditions in northern Africa than those migrating earlier, suggesting differences based on species ecology. 4.?Mean timing of passage was not related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), temperature or NDVI in the species-specific wintering areas (the overwintering region) when analysed in combination with the other covariates. 5.?Our findings show that ecological conditions in the winter quarters (specifically the Sahel) and en route are relevant factors influencing trends in the passage dates of trans-Saharan migratory birds on the southern fringe of Europe. Possible long-term consequences for late arriving spring migrants are discussed.     

How consistent are trends in arrival (and departure) dates of migrant birds in the UK?

We examine the first arrival and last departure dates of migrant bird species from, respectively, six and three English area bird reports. Of all 145 bird series, 50% demonstrated significantly earlier arrival in recent years, with the average advance over all species being 0.25 days/year or 12 days earlier over 50 years. Thirty percent of 67 series demonstrated significantly later departure, with the average species delay being 0.16 days/year or eight days later over 50 years. There was greater consistency between species in trends in first arrival than in last departure, with species such as sand martin Riparia riparia significantly earlier at all six sites while, for example, spotted flycatcher Muscicapa striata showed no significant change in arrival at all sites. Significant negative correlations between arrival dates and English temperatures were found for 26% of all series, but temperature effects on departures were less clear. We provide some evidence that trends in arrival dates may be masked by population declines in birds. Since migrant bird populations are in decline generally, this may suggest that the real advance in arrival dates may be greater than that reported here.     

Arrival and onset of breeding of three passerine birds in eastern Finland tracks climatic variation and phenology of insects

Anthropogenic climate change poses a challenge to the annual cycles of migratory birds. It has become urgent to understand whether migratory birds are able to advance their spring phenology when the climate is warming and whether they are able to adjust these phenological phases to the spring phenology in their breeding areas. In this work, we studied long‐term trends in first arrival and onset of breeding for three passerine birds in eastern Finland; the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, the common redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus and the great tit Parus major. The pied flycatcher and the common redstart are long‐distance migrants while the great tit is a partial migrant in Finland. We asked what environmental variables best explain the first arrival or onset of breeding, if there is evidence of ‘thermal delay’ (long‐term increase in the accumulated temperatures) at arrival or onset of breeding and if the interannual variation in the onset of breeding correlates with variation in spring phenology of local insects. We found that the pied flycatcher and the common redstart had advanced their first arrival (explained by increased temperatures at the migration route), but we found no long‐term change in the onset of breeding (explained by local temperatures). Also, the onset of breeding of the great tit is tracking local temperatures. We found no or only weak evidence of thermal delay at arrival or onset of breeding for any of the species. The onsets of breeding for the pied flycatcher and the great tit are also closely tracking the spring phenology of the local insects. The stable or increasing population sizes of all three species in Finland could be a result from their ability to effectively track climatic and environmental variation.     

Winter climate affects subsequent breeding success of common eiders

The phenology of spring migration depends on the severity of the preceding winter and approaching spring. This severity can be quantified using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; positive values indicate mild winters. Although milder winters are correlated with earlier migration in many birds in temperate regions, few studies have addressed how climate‐induced variation in spring arrival relates to breeding success. In northern Europe, the NAO‐index correlates with ice cover and timing of ice break‐up of the Baltic Sea. Ice cover plays an important role for breeding waterfowl, since the timing of ice break‐up constrains both spring arrival and onset of breeding. We studied the effects of the winter‐NAO‐index and timing of ice break‐up on spring migration, laying date, clutch size, female body condition at hatching and fledging success of a short‐distance migrant common eider (Somateria mollissima) population from SW Finland, the Baltic Sea, 1991–2004 (migration data 1979–2004). We also examined the correlation between the NAO‐index and the proportion of juvenile eiders in the Danish hunting bag, which reflects the breeding success on a larger spatial scale. The body condition of breeding females and proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag showed significant positive correlations with the NAO, whereas arrival dates showed positive correlations and clutch size and fledging success showed negative correlations with the timing of ice break‐up. The results suggest that climate, which also affects ice conditions, has an important effect on the fledging success of eiders. Outbreaks of duckling disease epidemics may be the primary mechanism underlying this effect. Eider females are in poorer condition after severe winters and cannot allocate as much resources to breeding, which may impair the immune defense of ducklings. Global climate warming is expected to increase the future breeding success of eiders in our study population.