Evolutionary rescue can be impeded by temporary environmental amelioration

Rapid evolutionary adaptation has the potential to rescue from extinction populations experiencing environmental changes. Little is known, however, about the impact of short‐term environmental fluctuations during long‐term environmental deterioration, an intrinsic property of realistic environmental changes. Temporary environmental amelioration arising from such fluctuations could either facilitate evolutionary rescue by allowing population recovery (a positive demographic effect) or impede it by relaxing selection for beneficial mutations required for future survival (a negative population genetic effect). We address this uncertainty in an experiment with populations of a bacteriophage virus that evolved under deteriorating conditions (gradually increasing temperature). Periodic environmental amelioration (short periods of reduced temperature) caused demographic recovery during the early phase of the experiment, but ultimately reduced the frequency of evolutionary rescue. These experimental results suggest that environmental fluctuations could reduce the potential of evolutionary rescue.     

Eco-evolutionary feedbacks,adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps.     

Evolutionary rescue can prevent extinction following environmental change

The ubiquity of global change and its impacts on biodiversity poses a clear and urgent challenge for evolutionary biologists. In many cases, environmental change is so widespread and rapid that individuals can neither accommodate to them physiologically nor migrate to a more favourable site. Extinction will ensue unless the population adapts fast enough to counter the rate of decline. According to theory, whether populations can be rescued by evolution depends upon several crucial variables: population size, the supply of genetic variation, and the degree of maladaptation to the new environment. Using techniques in experimental evolution we tested the conditions for evolutionary rescue (ER). Hundreds of yeast populations were exposed to normally lethal concentrations of salt in conditions, where the frequency of rescue mutations was estimated and population size was manipulated. In a striking match with theory, we show that ER is possible, and that the recovery of the population may occur within 25 generations. We observed a clear threshold in population size for ER whereby the ancestral population size must be sufficiently large to counter stochastic extinction and contain resistant individuals. These results demonstrate that rapid evolution is an important component of the response of small populations to environmental change.     

Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change

The extent to which global change will impact the long‐term persistence of species depends on their evolutionary potential to adapt to future conditions. While the number of studies that estimate the standing levels of adaptive genetic variation in populations under predicted global change scenarios is growing all the time, few studies have considered multiple environments simultaneously and even fewer have considered evolutionary potential in multivariate context. Because conditions will not be constant, adaptation to climate change is fundamentally a multivariate process so viewing genetic variances and covariances over multivariate space will always be more informative than relying on bivariate genetic correlations between traits. A multivariate approach to understanding the evolutionary capacity to cope with global change is necessary to avoid misestimating adaptive genetic variation in the dimensions in which selection will act. We assessed the evolutionary capacity of the larval stage of the marine polychaete Galeolaria caespitosa to adapt to warmer water temperatures. Galeolaria is an important habitat‐forming species in Australia, and its earlier life‐history stages tend to be more susceptible to stress. We used a powerful quantitative genetics design that assessed the impacts of three temperatures on subsequent survival across over 30 000 embryos across 204 unique families. We found adaptive genetic variation in the two cooler temperatures in our study, but none in the warmest temperature. Based on these results, we would have concluded that this species has very little capacity to evolve to the warmest temperature. However, when we explored genetic variation in multivariate space, we found evidence that larval survival has the potential to evolve even in the warmest temperatures via correlated responses to selection across thermal environments. Future studies should take a multivariate approach to estimating evolutionary capacity to cope with global change lest they misestimate a species’ true adaptive potential.     

Avoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity

Rapid environmental changes are putting numerous species at risk of extinction. For migration-limited species, persistence depends on either phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation (evolutionary rescue). Current theory on evolutionary rescue typically assumes linear environmental change. Yet accelerating environmental change may pose a bigger threat. Here, we present a model of a species encountering an environment with accelerating or decelerating change, to which it can adapt through evolution or phenotypic plasticity (within-generational or transgenerational). We show that unless either form of plasticity is sufficiently strong or adaptive genetic variation is sufficiently plentiful, accelerating or decelerating environmental change increases extinction risk compared to linear environmental change for the same mean rate of environmental change.     

Evolutionary rescue under demographic and environmental stochasticity

Populations suffer two types of stochasticity: demographic stochasticity, from sampling error in offspring number, and environmental stochasticity, from temporal variation in the growth rate. By modelling evolution through phenotypic selection following an abrupt environmental change, we investigate how genetic and demographic dynamics, as well as effects on population survival of the genetic variance and of the strength of stabilizing selection, differ under the two types of stochasticity. We show that population survival probability declines sharply with stronger stabilizing selection under demographic stochasticity, but declines more continuously when environmental stochasticity is strengthened. However, the genetic variance that confers the highest population survival probability differs little under demographic and environmental stochasticity. Since the influence of demographic stochasticity is stronger when population size is smaller, a slow initial decline of genetic variance, which allows quicker evolution, is important for population persistence. In contrast, the influence of environmental stochasticity is population-size-independent, so higher initial fitness becomes important for survival under strong environmental stochasticity. The two types of stochasticity interact in a more than multiplicative way in reducing the population survival probability. Our work suggests the importance of explicitly distinguishing and measuring the forms of stochasticity during evolutionary rescue.     

Dynamics of genomic change during evolutionary rescue in the seed beetle Callosobruchus maculatus

Rapid adaptation can prevent extinction when populations are exposed to extremely marginal or stressful environments. Factors that affect the likelihood of evolutionary rescue from extinction have been identified, but much less is known about the evolutionary dynamics (e.g., rates and patterns of allele frequency change) and genomic basis of successful rescue, particularly in multicellular organisms. We conducted an evolve‐and‐resequence experiment to investigate the dynamics of evolutionary rescue at the genetic level in the cowpea seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, when it is experimentally shifted to a stressful host plant, lentil. Low survival (~1%) at the onset of the experiment caused population decline. But adaptive evolution quickly rescued the population, with survival rates climbing to 69% by the F5 generation and 90% by the F10 generation. Population genomic data showed that rescue likely was caused by rapid evolutionary change at multiple loci, with many alleles fixing or nearly fixing within five generations of selection on lentil. Selection on these loci was only moderately consistent in time, but parallel evolutionary changes were evident in sublines formed after the lentil line had passed through a bottleneck. By comparing estimates of selection and genomic change on lentil across five independent C. maculatus lines (the new lentil‐adapted line, three long‐established lines and one case of failed evolutionary rescue), we found that adaptation on lentil occurred via somewhat idiosyncratic evolutionary changes. Overall, our results suggest that evolutionary rescue in this system can be caused by very strong selection on multiple loci driving rapid and pronounced genomic change.     

A macroecological approach to evolutionary rescue and adaptation to climate change

Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species’ responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco‐evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider's toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species’ geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco‐evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity.     

Selection history and epistatic interactions impact dynamics of adaptation to novel environmental stresses

In rapidly changing environments, selection history may impact the dynamics of adaptation. Mutations selected in one environment may result in pleiotropic fitness trade-offs in subsequent novel environments, slowing the rates of adaptation. Epistatic interactions between mutations selected in sequential stressful environments may slow or accelerate subsequent rates of adaptation, depending on the nature of that interaction. We explored the dynamics of adaptation during sequential exposure to herbicides with different modes of action in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii. Evolution of resistance to two of the herbicides was largely independent of selection history. For carbetamide, previous adaptation to other herbicide modes of action positively impacted the likelihood of adaptation to this herbicide. Furthermore, while adaptation to all individual herbicides was associated with pleiotropic fitness costs in stress-free environments, we observed that accumulation of resistance mechanisms was accompanied by a reduction in overall fitness costs. We suggest that antagonistic epistasis may be a driving mechanism that enables populations to more readily adapt in novel environments. These findings highlight the potential for sequences of xenobiotics to facilitate the rapid evolution of multiple-drug and -pesticide resistance, as well as the potential for epistatic interactions between adaptive mutations to facilitate evolutionary rescue in rapidly changing environments.     

Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change

Laboratory measurements of physiological and demographic tolerances are important in understanding the impact of climate change on species diversity; however, it has been recognized that forecasts based solely on these laboratory estimates overestimate risk by omitting the capacity for species to utilize microclimatic variation via behavioral adjustments in activity patterns or habitat choice. The complex, and often context‐dependent nature, of microclimate utilization has been an impediment to the advancement of general predictive models. Here, we overcome this impediment and estimate the potential impact of warming on the fitness of ectotherms using a benefit/cost trade‐off derived from the simple and broadly documented thermal performance curve and a generalized cost function. Our framework reveals that, for certain environments, the cost of behavioral thermoregulation can be reduced as warming occurs, enabling behavioral buffering (e.g., the capacity for behavior to ameliorate detrimental impacts) and “behavioral rescue” from extinction in extreme cases. By applying our framework to operative temperature and physiological data collected at an extremely fine spatial scale in an African lizard, we show that new behavioral opportunities may emerge. Finally, we explore large‐scale geographic differences in the impact of behavior on climate‐impact projections using a global dataset of 38 insect species. These multiple lines of inference indicate that understanding the existing relationship between thermal characteristics (e.g., spatial configuration, spatial heterogeneity, and modal temperature) is essential for improving estimates of extinction risk.     

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. XV. Genetic assimilation,the Baldwin effect,and evolutionary rescue

We used an individual‐based simulation model to examine the role of phenotypic plasticity on persistence and adaptation to two patterns of environmental variation, a single, abrupt step change and continual, linear change. Our model tested the assumptions and predictions of the theory of genetic assimilation, explored the evolutionary dynamics of the Baldwin effect, and provided expectations for the evolutionary response to climate change. We found that genetic assimilation as originally postulated is not likely to occur because the replacement of plasticity by fixed genetic effects takes much longer than the environment is likely to remain stable. On the other hand, trait plasticity as an enhancement to continual evolutionary change may be an important evolutionary mechanism as long as plasticity has little or no costs. Whether or not plasticity helps or hinders evolutionary rescue following a step change in the environment depends on whether plasticity is costly. For linear environmental change, noncostly plasticity always decreases extinction rates, while costly plasticity can create a fitness drag and increase the chance of extinction. Thus, with changing climates plasticity can enhance adaptation and prevent extinction under some conditions, but not others.     

The ghosts of selection past reduces the probability of plastic rescue but increases the likelihood of evolutionary rescue to novel stressors in experimental populations of wild yeast

Persistence by adaptation is called evolutionary rescue. Evolutionary rescue is more likely in populations that have been previously exposed to lower doses of the same stressor. Environmental fluctuations might also reduce the possibility of rescue, but little is known about the effect of evolutionary history on the likelihood of rescue. In this study, we hypothesised that the ubiquitous operation of generalised stress responses in many organisms increases the likelihood of rescue after exposure to other stressors. We tested this hypothesis with experimental populations that had been exposed to long‐term starvation and were then selected on different, unrelated stressors. We found that prior adaptation to starvation imposes contrary effects on the plastic and evolutionary responses of populations to subsequent stressors. When first exposed to new stressors, such populations become extinct more often. If they survive the initial exposure to the new stressors, however, they are more likely to undergo evolutionary rescue.     

Population persistence under high mutation rate: From evolutionary rescue to lethal mutagenesis

Populations may genetically adapt to severe stress that would otherwise cause their extirpation. Recent theoretical work, combining stochastic demography with Fisher's geometric model of adaptation, has shown how evolutionary rescue becomes unlikely beyond some critical intensity of stress. Increasing mutation rates may however allow adaptation to more intense stress, raising concerns about the effectiveness of treatments against pathogens. This previous work assumes that populations are rescued by the rise of a single resistance mutation. However, even in asexual organisms, rescue can also stem from the accumulation of multiple mutations in a single genome. Here, we extend previous work to study the rescue process in an asexual population where the mutation rate is sufficiently high so that such events may be common. We predict both the ultimate extinction probability of the population and the distribution of extinction times. We compare the accuracy of different approximations covering a large range of mutation rates. Moderate increase in mutation rates favors evolutionary rescue. However, larger increase leads to extinction by the accumulation of a large mutation load, a process called lethal mutagenesis. We discuss how these results could help design “evolution‐proof” antipathogen treatments that even highly mutable strains could not overcome.     

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology.     

The effect of selection history on extinction risk during severe environmental change

Environments rarely remain the same over time, and populations are therefore frequently at risk of going extinct when changes are significant enough to reduce fitness. Although many studies have investigated what attributes of the new environments and of the populations experiencing these changes will affect their probability of going extinct, limited work has been directed towards determining the role of population history on the probability of going extinct during severe environmental change. Here, we compare the extinction risk of populations with a history of selection in a benign environment, to populations with a history of selection in one or two stressful environments. We exposed spores and lines of the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii from these three different histories to a range of severe environmental changes. We found that the extinction risk was higher for populations with a history of selection in stressful environments compared to populations with a history of selection in a benign environment. This effect was not due to differences in initial population sizes. Finally, the rates of extinction were highly repeatable within histories, indicating strong historical contingency of extinction risk. Hence, information on the selection history of a population can be used to predict their probability of going extinct during environmental change.     

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on life‐history

Understanding the consequences of environmental change on ecological and evolutionary dynamics is inherently problematic because of the complex interplay between them. Using invertebrates in microcosms, we characterise phenotypic, population and evolutionary dynamics before, during and after exposure to a novel environment and harvesting over 20 generations. We demonstrate an evolved change in life‐history traits (the age‐ and size‐at‐maturity, and survival to maturity) in response to selection caused by environmental change (wild to laboratory) and to harvesting (juvenile or adult). Life‐history evolution, which drives changes in population growth rate and thus population dynamics, includes an increase in age‐to‐maturity of 76% (from 12.5 to 22 days) in the unharvested populations as they adapt to the new environment. Evolutionary responses to harvesting are outweighed by the response to environmental change (~ 1.4 vs. 4% change in age‐at‐maturity per generation). The adaptive response to environmental change converts a negative population growth trajectory into a positive one: an example of evolutionary rescue.     

Evolutionary rescue and adaptation to abrupt environmental change depends upon the history of stress

Whether evolution will be rapid enough to rescue declining populations will depend upon population size, the supply of genetic variation, the degree of maladaptation and the historical direction of selection. We examined whether the level of environmental stress experienced by a population prior to abrupt environmental change affects the probability of evolutionary rescue (ER). Hundreds of populations of two species of yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces paradoxus were exposed to a range of sublethal concentrations of salt for approximately a hundred generations before transfer to a concentration of salt lethal to the ancestor (150 g l^–1 NaCl). The fitness of surviving populations of both species was a quadratic function of yield: fitness was greatest for large populations that had been selected on low salt concentrations (less than 20 g l⁻¹ NaCl) and small populations that had adapted to high salt (more than 80 g l⁻¹ NaCl). However, differences occurred between species in the probability of ER. The frequency of ER was positively correlated with salt concentration for S. cerevisiae, but negatively correlated with salt concentration in S. paradoxus. These results not only demonstrate that past environmental conditions can determine the probability of ER after abrupt environmental change, but also suggest that there may even be differences between closely related species that are worth further exploration.     

Eco‐evolutionary partitioning metrics: assessing the importance of ecological and evolutionary contributions to population and community change

Interest in eco‐evolutionary dynamics is rapidly increasing thanks to ground‐breaking research indicating that evolution can occur rapidly and can alter the outcome of ecological processes. A key challenge in this sub‐discipline is establishing how important the contribution of evolutionary and ecological processes and their interactions are to observed shifts in population and community characteristics. Although a variety of metrics to separate and quantify the effects of evolutionary and ecological contributions to observed trait changes have been used, they often allocate fractions of observed changes to ecology and evolution in different ways. We used a mathematical and numerical comparison of two commonly used frameworks – the Price equation and reaction norms – to reveal that the Price equation cannot partition genetic from non‐genetic trait change within lineages, whereas the reaction norm approach cannot partition among‐ from within‐lineage trait change. We developed a new metric that combines the strengths of both Price‐based and reaction norm metrics, extended all metrics to analyse community change and also incorporated extinction and colonisation of species in these metrics. Depending on whether our new metric is applied to populations or communities, it can correctly separate intraspecific, interspecific, evolutionary, non‐evolutionary and interacting eco‐evolutionary contributions to trait change.     

Alternative responses to rare selection events are differentially vulnerable to changes in the frequency,scope, and intensity of environmental extremes

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, severe, and/or widespread as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. While the economic and ecological implications of these changes have received considerable attention, the role of evolutionary processes in determining organismal responses to these critical challenges is currently unknown. Here we develop a novel theoretical framework that explores how alternative pathways for adaptation to rare selection events can influence population‐level vulnerabilities to future changes in the frequency, scope, and intensity of environmental extremes. We begin by showing that different life histories and trait expression profiles can shift the balance between additive and multiplicative properties of fitness accumulation, favoring different evolutionary responses to identical environmental phenomena. We then demonstrate that these different adaptive outcomes lead to predictable differences in population‐level vulnerabilities to rapid increases in the frequency, intensity, or scope of extreme weather events. Specifically, we show that when the primary mode of fitness accumulation is additive, evolution favors ignoring environmental extremes and lineages become highly vulnerable to extinction if the frequency or scope of extreme weather events suddenly increases. Conversely, when fitness accumulates primarily multiplicatively, evolution favors bet‐hedging phenotypes that cope well with historical extremes and are instead vulnerable to sudden increases in extreme event intensity. Our findings address a critical gap in our understanding of the potential consequences of rare selection events and provide a relatively simple rubric for assessing the vulnerabilities of any population of interest to changes in a wide variety of extreme environmental phenomena.     

Evidence for rapid evolutionary change in an invasive plant in response to biological control

We present evidence that populations of an invasive plant species that have become re‐associated with a specialist herbivore in the exotic range through biological control have rapidly evolved increased antiherbivore defences compared to populations not exposed to biocontrol. We grew half‐sib families of the invasive plant Lythrum salicaria sourced from 17 populations near Ottawa, Canada, that differed in their history of exposure to a biocontrol agent, the specialist beetle Neogalerucella calmariensis. In a glasshouse experiment, we manipulated larval and adult herbivory to examine whether a population's history of biocontrol influenced plant defence and growth. Plants sourced from populations with a history of biocontrol suffered lower defoliation than naïve, previously unexposed populations, strongly suggesting they had evolved higher resistance. Plants from biocontrol‐exposed populations were also larger and produced more branches in response to herbivory, regrew faster even in the absence of herbivory and were better at compensating for the impacts of herbivory on growth (i.e. they exhibited increased tolerance). Furthermore, resistance and tolerance were positively correlated among genotypes with a history of biocontrol but not among naïve genotypes. Our findings suggest that biocontrol can rapidly select for increased defences in an invasive plant and may favour a mixed defence strategy of resistance and tolerance without an obvious cost to plant vigour. Although rarely studied, such evolutionary responses in the target species have important implications for the long‐term efficacy of biocontrol programmes.