Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

1. Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities.
2. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide. These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios.
3. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species. Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia.
4. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species.

     

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one‐third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high‐latitude regions. Similarly, at least one‐fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

1. North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.
2. We report on the potential spatial distributions of 13 wide-ranging, relatively common species of North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios.
3. We examined the potential influence of the mean and seasonal climate variables on the distribution of species. Presence-only occurrence records of species, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species’ distribution models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt).
4. Our results suggested that overall, 11 of the 13 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space (regions where climate conditions will be similar to those of area currently occupied) at the continental scale, but American marten Martes americana and ‘woodland’ caribou Rangifer tarandus are likely to lose suitable climate range by 2070. Furthermore, climate space is likely to be expanding northwards under future climate scenarios for most of the mammals, and many jurisdictions in the border region between Canada and the USA are likely to lose iconic species, such as moose Alces alces. We identified regions as potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia, which are increasingly considered to be important for biodiversity conservation.
5. The model results suggest significant implications for conservation planning for the 13 mammalian species under global climate change, especially at fine spatial scales. Numerous species that are presently common at their southern range edge will be functionally or completely extirpated in 50 years. The potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia could provide an effective support for adaptive strategies aimed at species conservation planning.

     

Niche modelling to guide conservation actions in France for the endangered crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes in relation to the invasive Pacifastacus leniusculus

1. The white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes) is globally endangered due to the impacts of habitat modification and fragmentation, water pollution, climate change, and invasive species, particularly the signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus). These pressures have caused the decline of A. pallipes populations in Europe, demonstrating the importance of predicting the species' potential distribution under current and future conditions. Focusing on the watercourses of mainland France, we aimed to identify suitable areas for A. pallipes to guide the conservation of current populations and future introduction actions or protection measures.
2. We applied ecological niche modelling to model the potential distribution of both A. pallipes and P. leniusculus and identified locations suitable for A. pallipes only. We also assessed the potential distribution of the species under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low-warming and high-warming conditions.
3. We found that A. pallipes and P. leniusculus exploit equivalent niches in France. Despite this, under current conditions, about 5% of the study area simultaneously records a high suitability for A. pallipes and a low suitability for P. leniusculus and is therefore of significant conservation interest. This percentage remains relatively stable under RCP 2.6 for 2050 and 2100, but decreases to 2% under RCP 8.5 for 2100.
4. Ecological niche modelling can supply crucial guidance for conservation actions aimed at protecting endangered species at a national scale by identifying sites most suitable for protection and sites where climate change and invasive species constitute a threat.

     

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.     

Modeling of habitat suitability of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) in Iran in future

Future changes in climate are imminent and they threat endangered and rare species due to habitat destruction. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) is a rare and vulnerable species whose habitat fragmentation and habitat loss decreased the size of its population significantly. Climate change is another threat to this species that is investigated in this research work. Aiming at this goal, ten species distribution models (SDMs) were applied as helpful tools for evaluating the potential effectiveness of climate change in habitat suitability of Asiatic black bear in Iran. Potential dispersal of Asiatic black bear was modeled as a function of 32 environmental variables for the current time and 2070 for 44 climate change scenarios (CC scenario) of future climate. Our results showed that modeling result depended on type of model. Our results confirmed that one of the greatest threats in the near future for Asiatic black bear was the change of suitable habitat due to climate change. All the CC scenarios showed that migration of this species would be to the north and west areas with higher elevation and that an increase in area would be more than a decrease in area in all scenarios. Recognizing and protecting potential future habitats are of the important activities to conserve this species and identify areas with conservation priority.     

Contracting montane cloud forests: a case study of the Andean alder (Alnus acuminata) and associated fungi in the Yungas

Alnus acuminata is a keystone tree species in the Yungas forests and host to a wide range of fungal symbionts. While species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely used for plants and animals to study the effects of climate change on montane forest communities, employing SDMs in fungi has been hindered by the lack of data on their geographic distribution. The well‐known host specificity and common biogeographic history of A. acuminata and associated ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi provide an exceptional opportunity to model the potential habitat for this symbiotic assemblage and to predict possible climate‐driven changes in the future. We (1) modeled the present and future distributions of suitable habitats for A. acuminata; (2) characterized fungal communities in different altitudinal zones of the Yungas using DNA metabarcoding of soil and root samples; and (3) selected fungi that were significant indicators of Alnus. Fungal communities were strongly structured according to altitudinal forest types and the presence of Alnus. Fungal indicators of Alnus, particularly ECM and root endophytic fungi, were also detected in Alnus roots. Current and future (year 2050) habitat models developed for A. acuminata predict a 25–50 percent decrease in suitable area and an upslope shift of the suitable habitat by ca. 184–380 m, depending on the climate change scenario. Although A. acuminata is considered to be an effective disperser, recent studies suggest that Andean grasslands are remarkably resistant to forest invasion, and future range contraction for A. acuminata may be even more pronounced than predicted by our models.     

Climate-based ensemble modelling to evaluate the global distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky)

1. Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is a forest pest that damages a wide range of trees in areas where it has recently been introduced, demanding a proactive evaluation of its possible future distribution.
2. This study aimed to project the potential distribution of A. glabripennis using species distribution modelling and constructed an ensemble map for evaluating global risk areas.
3. We used CLIMEX and MaxEnt to evaluate the potential distribution of A. glabripennis as a function of current and future climates.
4. The results showed that the models predicted a high probability of A. glabripennis distribution where this species is currently found, and the suitable climate was shifted northward due to climate change.
5. The projected area differed between the models because of different modelling algorithm and climate change scenario; thus, an ensemble map projecting the consensus areas from two models was constructed to identify the risk areas that corresponded to the eastern United States, Europe, and native countries, Korea and China, and nearby Japan.
6. From the perspective of ensemble modelling for evaluating species distributions with reduced uncertainties, this study will enhance the model reliability for defining areas at risk of A. glabripennis occurrence.

     

Incorporating intraspecific variation into species distribution models improves distribution predictions,but cannot predict species traits for a wide-spread plant species

The most common approach to predicting how species ranges and ecological functions will shift with climate change is to construct correlative species distribution models (SDMs). These models use a species’ climatic distribution to determine currently suitable areas for the species and project its potential distribution under future climate scenarios. A core, rarely tested, assumption of SDMs is that all populations will respond equivalently to climate. Few studies have examined this assumption, and those that have rarely dissect the reasons for intraspecific differences. Focusing on the arctic-alpine cushion plant Silene acaulis, we compared predictive accuracy from SDMs constructed using the species’ full global distribution with composite predictions from separate SDMs constructed using subpopulations defined either by genetic or habitat differences. This is one of the first studies to compare multiple ways of constructing intraspecific-level SDMs with a species-level SDM. We also examine the contested relationship between relative probability of occurrence and species performance or ecological function, testing if SDM output can predict individual performance (plant size) and biotic interactions (facilitation). We found that both genetic- and habitat-informed SDMs are considerably more accurate than a species-level SDM, and that the genetic model substantially differs from and outperforms the habitat model. While SDMs have been used to infer population performance and possibly even biotic interactions, in our system these relationships were extremely weak. Our results indicate that individual subpopulations may respond differently to climate, although we discuss and explore several alternative explanations for the superior performance of intraspecific-level SDMs. We emphasize the need to carefully examine how to best define intraspecific-level SDMs as well as how potential genetic, environmental, or sampling variation within species ranges can critically affect SDM predictions. We urge caution in inferring population performance or biotic interactions from SDM predictions, as these often-assumed relationships are not supported in our study.     

Modelling the recent and potential future spatial distribution of the Ring Ouzel (Turdus torquatus) and Blackbird (T. merula) in Switzerland

We present here a multiscale modelling approach to predict the current and future spatial distribution of Ring Ouzel (Turdus torquatus) and Blackbird (T. merula) in Switzerland. Species distribution models (SDMs) are applied on three different scales in order to analyse the scale-dependency of predictors that describe the species’ realised niche. While the models on the macro- and mesoscales (grid of 100 and 1 km², respectively) cover the entire country, our small-scale models are based on a small set of territories. Ring Ouzels occur at altitudes above 1000 m a.s.l. only, while Blackbirds occur from the lowlands up to the timberline. Although both species coexist on the macro- and mesoscales, a direct niche overlap on territory scale is rare. Small-scale differences in vegetation cover and structure seem to play a dominant role in habitat selection. On the macroscale, however, we observed a high dependency on bioclimatic variables that mainly represent the altitudinal range and the related forest structure preferred by both species. Applying the models to climate change scenarios, we predict a decline of suitable habitat for the Ring Ouzel with a simultaneous median altitudinal shift of 440 m until 2070. In contrast, the Blackbird is predicted to benefit from higher temperatures and expand its range to higher elevations. Based on the species distribution models we (1) demonstrate the scale-dependency of environmental predictors, (2) quantify the scale-dependent habitat requirements of Blackbird and Ring Ouzel and (3) predict the altitudinal range shift of both species as related to climate change scenarios.     

Aridity could have driven the local extinction of a common and multivoltine butterfly

1. Identifying which species are being negatively impacted by climate change and the mechanisms driving their decline is essential to effectively protect biodiversity.
2. Coenonympha pamphilus is a common and generalist butterfly, widely distributed throughout the Western Palearctic, being multivoltine in southern Europe. Previous studies indicate that it will not be substantially affected by climate change; however, it has seemingly disappeared from the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula in the last decades.
3. Here, we aim to determine if it has effectively disappeared from this area, as well as identify the environmental conditions limiting its distribution and the potential causes behind this a priori local extinction.
4. We downloaded all the occurrence records of C. pamphilus and analysed their spatial and temporal trends. To identify the climatic variables driving the distribution of this butterfly in the Iberian Peninsula, we performed an ensemble species distribution model (SDM), combining 600 individual models produced with 6 algorithms.
5. We confirmed that C. pamphilus has not been observed in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula since 2008. Aridity was the main factor limiting the distribution of C. pamphilus in our ensemble SDM, with areas with high aridity being unsuitable for this species.
6. We hypothesise that multivoltinism is the mechanism driving this local extirpation, as high aridity is causing host plants (Poaceae) to wither prematurely, precluding the development of the second and/or third generations of the butterfly. Even though generalist species are theoretically more resilient to climate change, other traits such as multivoltinism may increase their vulnerability and need to be further investigated.

     

Limited transferability of stream‐fish distribution models among river catchments: reasons and implications

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Biotic interactions influence the projected distribution of a specialist mammal under climate change

Aim

To measure the effects of including biotic interactions on climate‐based species distribution models (SDMs) used to predict distribution shifts under climate change. We evaluated the performance of distribution models for an endangered marsupial, the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica), comparing models that used only climate variables with models that also took into account biotic interactions.

Location

North‐east Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We developed separate climate‐based distribution models for the northern bettong, its two main resources and a competitor species. We then constructed models for the northern bettong by including climate suitability estimates for the resources and competitor as additional predictor variables to make climate + resource and climate + resource + competition models. We projected these models onto seven future climate scenarios and compared predictions of northern bettong distribution made by these differently structured models, using a ‘global’ metric, the I similarity statistic, to measure overlap in distribution and a ‘local’ metric to identify where predictions differed significantly.

Results

Inclusion of food resource biotic interactions improved model performance. Over moderate climate changes, up to 3.0 °C of warming, the climate‐only model for the northern bettong gave similar predictions of distribution to the more complex models including interactions, with differences only at the margins of predicted distributions. For climate changes beyond 3.0 °C, model predictions diverged significantly. The interactive model predicted less contraction of distribution than the simpler climate‐only model.

Main conclusions

Distribution models that account for interactions with other species, in particular direct resources, improve model predictions in the present‐day climate. For larger climate changes, shifts in distribution of interacting species cause predictions of interactive models to diverge from climate‐only models. Incorporating interactions with other species in SDMs may be needed for long‐term prediction of changes in distribution of species under climate change, particularly for specialized species strongly dependent on a small number of biotic interactions.     

Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: implications for future range expansion

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Modeling the distribution of a wide‐ranging invasive species using the sampling efforts of expert and citizen scientists

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Predicting the distribution of a novel bark beetle and its pine hosts under future climate conditions

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Past,present, and future predictions on the suitable habitat of the Slender racer (Orientocoluber spinalis) using species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) across past, present, and future timelines provide insights into the current distribution of these species and their reaction to climate change. Specifically, if a species is threatened or not well‐known, the information may be critical to understand that species. In this study, we computed SDMs for Orientocoluber spinalis, a monotypic snake genus found in central and northeast Asia, across the past (last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid‐Holocene), present, and future (2070s). The goal of the study was to understand the shifts in distribution across time, and the climatic factors primarily affecting the distribution of the species. We found the suitable habitat of O. spinalis to be persistently located in cold‐dry winter and hot summer climatic areas where annual mean temperature, isothermality, and annual mean precipitation were important for suitable habitat conditions. Since the last glacial maximum, the suitable habitat of the species has consistently shifted northward. Despite the increase in suitable habitat, the rapid alterations in weather regimes because of climate change in the near future are likely to greatly threaten the southern populations of O. spinalis, especially in South Korea and China. To cope with such potential future threats, understanding the ecological requirements of the species and developing conservation plans are urgently needed.     

Distribution of cryptic blue oat mite species in Australia: current and future climate conditions

• 1 Invertebrate pests, such as blue oat mites Penthaleus spp., cause significant economic damage to agricultural crops in Australia. Climate is a major driver of invertebrate species distributions and climate change is expected to shift pest assemblages and pest prevalence across Australia. At this stage, little is known of how individual species will respond to climate change.
• 2 We have mapped the current distribution for each of the three pest Penthaleus spp. in Australia and built ecological niche models for each species using the correlative modelling software, maxent . Predictor variables useful for describing the climate space of each species were determined and the models were projected into a range of future climate change scenarios to assess how climate change may alter species‐specific distribution patterns in Australia.
• 3 The distributions of the three cryptic Penthaleus spp. are best described with different sets of climatic variables. Suitable climate space for all species decreases under the climate change scenarios investigated in the present study. The models also indicate that the assemblage of Penthaleus spp. is likely to change across Australia, particularly in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.
• 4 These results show the distributions of the three Penthaleus spp. are correlated with different climatic variables, and that regional control of mite pests is likely to change in the future. A further understanding of ecological and physiological processes that may influence the distribution and pest status of mites is required.

     

Topo‐climatic microrefugia explain the persistence of a rare endemic plant in the Alps during the last 21 millennia

Ongoing rapid climate change is predicted to cause local extinction of plant species in mountain regions. However, some plant species could have persisted during Quaternary climate oscillations without shifting their range, despite the limited evidence from fossils. Here, we tested two candidate mechanisms of persistence by comparing the macrorefugia and microrefugia (MR) hypotheses. We used the rare and endemic Saxifraga florulenta as a model taxon and combined ensembles of species distribution models (SDMs) with a high‐resolution paleoclimatic and topographic dataset to reconstruct its potential current and past distribution since the last glacial maximum. To test the macrorefugia hypothesis, we verified whether the species could have persisted in or shifted to geographic areas defined by its realized niche. We then identified potential MR based on climatic and topographic properties of the landscape and applied refined scenarios of MR dynamics and functions over time. Last, we quantified the number of known occurrences that could be explained by either the macrorefugia or MR model. A consensus of two or three SDM techniques predicted absence between 14–10, 3–4 and 1 ka bp , which did not support the macrorefugia model. In contrast, we showed that S. florulenta could have contracted into MR during periods of absence predicted by the SDMs and later re‐colonized suitable areas according to the macrorefugia model. Assuming a limited and realistic seed dispersal distance for our species, we explained a large number of the current occurrences (61–96%). Additionally, we showed that MR could have facilitated range expansions or shifts of S. florulenta. Finally, we found that the most recent and the most stable MR were the ones closest to current occurrences. Hence, we propose a novel paradigm to explain plant persistence by highlighting the importance of supporting functions of MR when forecasting the fate of plant species under climate change.