Inferring population decline and expansion from microsatellite data: a simulation-based evaluation of the Msvar method

Reconstructing the demographic history of populations is a central issue in evolutionary biology. Using likelihood-based methods coupled with Monte Carlo simulations, it is now possible to reconstruct past changes in population size from genetic data. Using simulated data sets under various demographic scenarios, we evaluate the statistical performance of Msvar, a full-likelihood Bayesian method that infers past demographic change from microsatellite data. Our simulation tests show that Msvar is very efficient at detecting population declines and expansions, provided the event is neither too weak nor too recent. We further show that Msvar outperforms two moment-based methods (the M-ratio test and Bottleneck) for detecting population size changes, whatever the time and the severity of the event. The same trend emerges from a compilation of empirical studies. The latest version of Msvar provides estimates of the current and the ancestral population size and the time since the population started changing in size. We show that, in the absence of prior knowledge, Msvar provides little information on the mutation rate, which results in biased estimates and/or wide credibility intervals for each of the demographic parameters. However, scaling the population size parameters with the mutation rate and scaling the time with current population size, as coalescent theory requires, significantly improves the quality of the estimates for contraction but not for expansion scenarios. Finally, our results suggest that Msvar is robust to moderate departures from a strict stepwise mutation model.     

Speciational history of Australian grass finches (Poephila) inferred from thirty gene trees

Multilocus genealogical approaches are still uncommon in phylogeography and historical demography, fields which have been dominated by microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA, particularly for vertebrates. Using 30 newly developed anonymous nuclear loci, we estimated population divergence times and ancestral population sizes of three closely related species of Australian grass finches (Poephila) distributed across two barriers in northern Australia. We verified that substitution rates were generally constant both among lineages and among loci, and that intralocus recombination was uncommon in our dataset, thereby satisfying two assumptions of our multilocus analysis. The reconstructed gene trees exhibited all three possible tree topologies and displayed considerable variation in coalescent times, yet this information provided the raw data for maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of population divergence times and ancestral population sizes. Estimates of these parameters were in close agreement with each other regardless of statistical approach and our Bayesian estimates were robust to prior assumptions. Our results suggest that black-throated finches (Poephila cincta) diverged from long-tailed finches (P. acuticauda and P. hecki) across the Carpentarian Barrier in northeastern Australia around 0.6 million years ago (mya), and that P. acuticauda diverged from P. hecki across the Kimberley Plateau-Arnhem Land Barrier in northwestern Australia approximately 0.3 mya. Bayesian 95% credibility intervals around these estimates strongly support Pleistocene timing for both speciation events, despite the fact that many gene divergences across the Carpentarian region clearly predated the Pleistocene. Estimates of ancestral effective population sizes for the basal ancestor and long-tailed finch ancestor were large (about 521,000 and about 384,000, respectively). Although the errors around the population size parameter estimates are considerable, they are the first for birds taking into account multiple sources of variance.     

Population density and genetic diversity are positively correlated in wild felids globally

Aim

Insights into the biological and evolutionary traits of species, and their ability to cope with global changes, can be gained by studying genetic diversity within species. A cornerstone hypothesis in evolutionary and conservation biology suggests that genetic diversity decreases with decreasing population size, however, population size is difficult to estimate in threatened species with large distribution ranges, and evidence for this is limited to few species. To address this gap, we tested this hypothesis across multiple closely related species at a global scale using population density which is a more accessible measure.

Location

Global.

Time Period

Contemporary.

Major Taxa Studied

Wild felids in their natural habitats.

Methods

We obtained data from published estimates of population density assessed via camera trap and within-population genetic diversity generated from microsatellite markers on 18 felid species across 41 countries from 354 studies. We propose a novel method to standardize population density estimates and to spatially join data using K-means clustering. Linear mixed-effect modelling was applied to account for confounding factors such as body mass, generation length and sample size used for the genetic estimates.

Results

We found a significant positive correlation between population density and genetic diversity, particularly observed heterozygosity and allelic richness. While the confounding factors did not affect the main results, long generation length and large sample size were significantly associated with high genetic diversity. Body mass had no effect on genetic diversity, likely because large-bodied species were over-represented in our data sets.

Main Conclusions

Our study emphasizes how recent demographic processes shape neutral genetic diversity in threatened and small populations where extinction vortex is a risk. Although caution is needed when interpreting the small population density effect in our findings, our methodological framework shows promising potential to identify which populations require actions to conserve maximal genetic variation.     

Molecular dating for phylogenies containing a mix of populations and species by using Bayesian and RelTime approaches

Simultaneous molecular dating of population and species divergences is essential in many biological investigations, including phylogeography, phylodynamics and species delimitation studies. In these investigations, multiple sequence alignments consist of both intra‐ and interspecies samples (mixed samples). As a result, the phylogenetic trees contain interspecies, interpopulation and within‐population divergences. Bayesian relaxed clock methods are often employed in these analyses, but they assume the same tree prior for both inter‐ and intraspecies branching processes and require specification of a clock model for branch rates (independent vs. autocorrelated rates models). We evaluated the impact of a single tree prior on Bayesian divergence time estimates by analysing computer‐simulated data sets. We also examined the effect of the assumption of independence of evolutionary rate variation among branches when the branch rates are autocorrelated. Bayesian approach with coalescent tree priors generally produced excellent molecular dates and highest posterior densities with high coverage probabilities. We also evaluated the performance of a non‐Bayesian method, RelTime, which does not require the specification of a tree prior or a clock model. RelTime's performance was similar to that of the Bayesian approach, suggesting that it is also suitable to analyse data sets containing both populations and species variation when its computational efficiency is needed.     

ACCOUNTING FOR RATE VARIATION AMONG LINEAGES IN COMPARATIVE DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSES

Genetic analyses of contemporary populations can be used to estimate the demographic histories of species within an ecological community. Comparison of these demographic histories can shed light on community responses to past climatic events. However, species experience different rates of molecular evolution, and this presents a major obstacle to comparative demographic analyses. We address this problem by using a Bayesian relaxed‐clock method to estimate the relative evolutionary rates of 22 small mammal taxa distributed across northwestern North America. We found that estimates of the relative molecular substitution rate for each taxon were consistent across the range of sampling schemes that we compared. Using three different reference rates, we rescaled the relative rates so that they could be used to estimate absolute evolutionary timescales. Accounting for rate variation among taxa led to temporal shifts in our skyline‐plot estimates of demographic history, highlighting both uniform and idiosyncratic evolutionary responses to directional climate trends for distinct ecological subsets of the small mammal community. Our approach can be used in evolutionary analyses of populations from multiple species, including comparative demographic studies.     

Phylogeography of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau endemic alpine herb Pomatosace filicula (Primulaceae)

In order to trace the response of alpine plants on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) to the Quaternary climate oscillations, the phylogeographic history of Pomatosace filicula Maxim. was investigated in the present study. Based on sequence variations of two maternally inherited plastid markers, matK and trnH-psbA, and the biparentally inherited nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (nrITS), we estimated the population genetic structure, lineage divergence timescale, and population dynamics of P. filicula. Seven plastid haplotypes and two nrITS genotypes were identified across the range-wide sampling of 200 individuals from 24 populations. Although AMOVA revealed a high level of differentiation among populations (F_ST = 0.560), no significant phylogeographic structure was detected (N_ST = 0.503, G_ST = 0.518, P > 0.05). Molecular dating suggested that the divergences between major plastid lineages and nrITS genotypes occurred during the early and middle Pleistocene, and the middle Pleistocene, respectively. This species most likely survived at multiple unglaciated sites on the QTP during the Last Glacial Maximum, with most of these sites located above 4000 m a.s.l. The species probably experienced range expansion at its distribution fringe, but demographic tests did not suggest significant population size changes. We proposed that pronounced effective gene flow (N_em = 0.393) and short generation time may have obscured the phylogeographic and demographic patterns of this species. Our findings will shed new light on the Quaternary evolutionary history of the alpine flora of the QTP.     

Interglacial genetic diversification of Moussonia deppeana (Gesneriaceae), a hummingbird‐pollinated,cloud forest shrub in northern Mesoamerica

Recent empirical work on cloud forest‐adapted species supports the role of both old divergences across major geographical areas and more recent divergences attributed to Pleistocene climate changes. The shrub Moussonia deppeana is distributed in northern Mesoamerica, with geographically disjunct populations. Based on sampling throughout the species range and employing plastid and nuclear markers, we (i) test whether the fragmented distribution is correlated with main evolutionary lineages, (ii) reconstruct its phylogeographical history to infer the history of cloud forest in northern Mesoamerica and (iii) evaluate a set of refugia/vicariance scenarios for the region and demographic patterns of the populations whose ranges expanded and tracked cloud forest conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum. We found a deep evolutionary split in M. deppeana about 6–3 Ma, which could be consistent with a Pliocene divergence. Comparison of variation in plastid and nuclear markers revealed several lineages mostly congruent with their isolated geographical distribution and restricted gene flow among groups. Results of species distribution modelling and coalescent simulations fit a model of multiple refugia diverging during interglacial cycles. The demographic history of M. deppeana is not consistent with an expanding–contracting cloud forest archipelago model during the Last Glacial Maximum. Instead, our data suggest that populations persisted across the geographical range throughout the glacial cycles, and experienced isolation and divergence during interglacial periods.     

Do complex population histories drive higher estimates of substitution rate in phylogenetic reconstructions?

Our curiosity about biodiversity compels us to reconstruct the evolutionary past of species. Molecular evolutionary theory now allows parameterization of mathematically sophisticated and detailed models of DNA evolution, which have resulted in a wealth of phylogenetic histories. But reconstructing how species and population histories have played out is critically dependent on the assumptions we make, such as the clock-like accumulation of genetic differences over time and the rate of accumulation of such differences. An important stumbling block in the reconstruction of evolutionary history has been the discordance in estimates of substitution rate between phylogenetic and pedigree-based studies. Ancient genetic data recovered directly from the past are intermediate in time scale between phylogenetics-based and pedigree-based calibrations of substitution rate. Recent analyses of such ancient genetic data suggest that substitution rates are closer to the higher, pedigree-based estimates. In this issue, Navascués & Emerson (2009) model genetic data from contemporary and ancient populations that deviate from a simple demographic history (including changes in population size and structure) using serial coalescent simulations. Furthermore, they show that when these data are used for calibration, we are likely to arrive at upwardly biased estimates of mutation rate.     

Effects of population size and isolation on the genetic structure of the East African mountain white‐eye Zosterops poliogaster (Aves)

Habitat size, quality and isolation determine the genetic structure and diversity of populations and may influence their evolutionary potential and vulnerability to stochastic events. Small and isolated populations are subject to strong genetic drift and can lose much of their genetic diversity due to stochastic fixation and loss of alleles. The mountain white‐eye Zosterops poliogaster, a cloud forest bird species, is exclusively found in the high mountains of East Africa. We analysed 13 polymorphic microsatellites for 213 individuals of this species that were sampled at different points in time in three mountain massifs differing in habitat size, isolation and habitat degradation. We analysed the genetic differentiation among mountain populations and estimated the effective population sizes. Our results indicate three mountain‐specific genetic clusters. Time cohorts did not show genetic divergences, suggesting that populations are large enough to prevent strong drift effects. Effective population sizes were higher in larger and geographically interconnected habitat patches. Our findings underline the relevance of ecological barriers even for mobile species and show the importance of investigating different estimators of population size, including both approaches based on single and multiple time‐points of sampling, for the inference of the demographic status of a population. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 828–836.     

Germ banks affect the inference of past demographic events

Continuous progress in empirical population genetics based on the whole‐genome polymorphism data requires the theoretical analysis of refined models in order to interpret the evolutionary history of populations with adequate accuracy. Recent studies focus prevalently on the aspects of demography and adaptation, whereas age structure (for example, in plants via the maintenance of seed banks) has attracted less attention. Germ banking, that is, seed or egg dormancy, is a prevalent and important life‐history trait in plants and invertebrates, which buffers against environmental variability and modulates species extinction in fragmented habitats. Within this study, we investigate the combined effect of germ banking and time‐varying population size on the neutral coalescent and particularly derive the allele frequency spectrum under some simplifying assumptions. We then perform an ABC analysis using two simple demographic scenarios—a population expansion and an instantaneous decline. We demonstrate the appreciable influence of seed banks on the estimation of demographic parameters depending on the germination rate with biases scaled by the square of the germination rate. In the more complex case of a population bottleneck, which comprises an instantaneous decline and an expansion phase, ignoring information on the germination rate denies reliable estimates of the bottleneck parameters via the allelic spectrum. In particular, when seeds remain in the bank over several generations, recent expansions may remain invisible in the frequency spectrum, whereas ancient declines leave signatures much longer than in the absence of seed bank.     

A genome-wide departure from the standard neutral model in natural populations of Drosophila

We analyze nucleotide polymorphism data for a large number of loci in areas of normal to high recombination in Drosophila melanogaster and D. simulans (24 and 16 loci, respectively). We find a genome-wide, systematic departure from the neutral expectation for a panmictic population at equilibrium in natural populations of both species. The distribution of sequence-based estimates of 2Nc across loci is inconsistent with the assumptions of the standard neutral theory, given the observed levels of nucleotide diversity and accepted values for recombination and mutation rates. Under these assumptions, most estimates of 2Nc are severalfold too low; in other words, both species exhibit greater intralocus linkage disequilibrium than expected. Variation in recombination or mutation rates is not sufficient to account for the excess of linkage disequilibrium. While an equilibrium island model does not seem to account for the data, more complicated forms of population structure may. A proper test of alternative demographic models will require loci to be sampled in a more consistent fashion.     

Estimation of hominoid ancestral population sizes under bayesian coalescent models incorporating mutation rate variation and sequencing errors

Estimation of population parameters for the common ancestors of humans and the great apes is important in understanding our evolutionary history. In particular, inference of population size for the human-chimpanzee common ancestor may shed light on the process by which the 2 species separated and on whether the human population experienced a severe size reduction in its early evolutionary history. In this study, the Bayesian method of ancestral inference of Rannala and Yang (2003. Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645-1656) was extended to accommodate variable mutation rates among loci and random species-specific sequencing errors. The model was applied to analyze a genome-wide data set of approximately 15,000 neutral loci (7.4 Mb) aligned for human, chimpanzee, gorilla, orangutan, and macaque. We obtained robust and precise estimates for effective population sizes along the hominoid lineage extending back approximately 30 Myr to the cercopithecoid divergence. The results showed that ancestral populations were 5-10 times larger than modern humans along the entire hominoid lineage. The estimates were robust to the priors used and to model assumptions about recombination. The unusually low X chromosome divergence between human and chimpanzee could not be explained by variation in the male mutation bias or by current models of hybridization and introgression. Instead, our parameter estimates were consistent with a simple instantaneous process for human-chimpanzee speciation but showed a major reduction in X chromosome effective population size peculiar to the human-chimpanzee common ancestor, possibly due to selective sweeps on the X prior to separation of the 2 species.     

Comparative mtDNA phylogeography of neotropical freshwater fishes: testing shared history to infer the evolutionary landscape of lower Central America

Historical biogeography seeks to explain contemporary distributions of taxa in the context of intrinsic biological and extrinsic geological and climatic factors. To decipher the relative importance of biological characteristics vs. environmental conditions, it is necessary to ask whether groups of taxa with similar distributions share the same history of diversification. Because all of the taxa will have shared the same climatic and geological history, evidence of shared history across multiple species provides an estimate of the role of extrinsic factors in shaping contemporary biogeographic patterns. Similarly, differences in the records of evolutionary history across species will probably be signatures of biological differences. In this study, we focus on inferring the evolutionary history for geographical populations and closely related species representing three genera of primary freshwater fishes that are widely distributed in lower Central America (LCA) and northwestern Colombia. Analysis of mitochondrial gene trees provides the opportunity for robust tests of shared history across taxa. Moreover, because mtDNA permits inference of the temporal scale of diversification we can test hypotheses regarding the chronological development of the Isthmian corridor linking North and South America. We have focused attention on two issues. First, we show that many of the distinct populations of LCA fishes diverged in a relatively brief period of time thus limiting the phylogenetic signal available for tests of shared history. Second, our results provide reduced evidence of shared history when all drainages are included in the analysis because of inferred dispersion events that obscure the evolutionary history among drainage basins. When we restrict the analysis to areas that harbour endemic mitochondrial lineages, there is evidence of shared history across taxa. We hypothesize that there were two to three distinct waves of invasion into LCA from putative source populations in northwestern Colombia. The first probably happened in the late Miocene, prior to the final emergence of the Isthmus in the mid-Pliocene; the second was probably coincident with the rise of the Isthmus in the mid-Pliocene, and the third event occurred more recently, perhaps in the Pleistocene. In each case the geographical scale of the dispersion of lineages was progressively more limited, a pattern we attribute to the continuing development of the landscape due to orogeny and the consequent increase in the insularization of drainage basins. Thus, the fisheye view of LCA suggests a complex biogeographic history of overlaid cycles of colonization, diversification, sorting and extinction of lineages.     

Mitochondrial barcodes are diagnostic of shared refugia but not species in hybridizing oak gallwasps

Mitochondrial DNA barcodes provide a simple taxonomic tool for systematic and ecological research, with particular benefit for poorly studied or species-rich taxa. Barcoding assumes genetic diversity follows species boundaries; however, many processes disrupt species-level monophyly of barcodes leading to incorrect classifications. Spatial population structure, particularly when shared across closely related and potentially hybridizing taxa, can invalidate barcoding approaches yet few data exist to examine its impacts. We test how shared population structure across hybridizing species impacts upon mitochondrial barcodes by sequencing the cytochrome b gene for 518 individuals of four well-delimited Western Palaearctic gallwasp species within the Andricus quercuscalicis species group. Mitochondrial barcodes clustered individuals into mixed-species clades corresponding to refugia, with no difference in within- and between-species divergence. Four nuclear genes were also sequenced from 4 to 11 individuals per refugial population of each species. Multi-locus analyses of these data supported established species, with no support for the refugial clustering across species seen in mitochondrial barcodes. This pattern is consistent with mitochondrial introgression among populations of species sharing the same glacial refugium, such that mitochondrial barcodes identify a shared history of population structure rather than species. Many taxa show phylogeographic structure across glacial refugia, suggesting that mitochondrial barcoding may fail when applied to other sets of co-distributed, closely related species. Robust barcoding approaches must sample extensively across population structure to disentangle spatial from species-level variation. Methods incorporating multiple unlinked loci are also essential to accommodate coalescent variation among genes and provide power to resolve recently diverged species.     

Effects of Mitochondrial DNA Rate Variation on Reconstruction of Pleistocene Demographic History in a Social Avian Species,Pomatostomus superciliosus

Mitochondrial sequence data is often used to reconstruct the demographic history of Pleistocene populations in an effort to understand how species have responded to past climate change events. However, departures from neutral equilibrium conditions can confound evolutionary inference in species with structured populations or those that have experienced periods of population expansion or decline. Selection can affect patterns of mitochondrial DNA variation and variable mutation rates among mitochondrial genes can compromise inferences drawn from single markers. We investigated the contribution of these factors to patterns of mitochondrial variation and estimates of time to most recent common ancestor (T_MRCA) for two clades in a co-operatively breeding avian species, the white-browed babbler Pomatostomus superciliosus. Both the protein-coding ND3 gene and hypervariable domain I control region sequences showed departures from neutral expectations within the superciliosus clade, and a two-fold difference in T_MRCA estimates. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis provided evidence of departure from a strict clock model of molecular evolution in domain I, leading to an over-estimation of T_MRCA for the superciliosus clade at this marker. Our results suggest mitochondrial studies that attempt to reconstruct Pleistocene demographic histories should rigorously evaluate data for departures from neutral equilibrium expectations, including variation in evolutionary rates across multiple markers. Failure to do so can lead to serious errors in the estimation of evolutionary parameters and subsequent demographic inferences concerning the role of climate as a driver of evolutionary change. These effects may be especially pronounced in species with complex social structures occupying heterogeneous environments. We propose that environmentally driven differences in social structure may explain observed differences in evolutionary rate of domain I sequences, resulting from longer than expected retention times for matriarchal lineages in the superciliosus clade.     

Genomic patterns in the widespread Eurasian lynx shaped by Late Quaternary climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts

Disentangling the contribution of long‐term evolutionary processes and recent anthropogenic impacts to current genetic patterns of wildlife species is key to assessing genetic risks and designing conservation strategies. Here, we used 80 whole nuclear genomes and 96 mitogenomes from populations of the Eurasian lynx covering a range of conservation statuses, climatic zones and subspecies across Eurasia to infer the demographic history, reconstruct genetic patterns, and discuss the influence of long‐term isolation and/or more recent human‐driven changes. Our results show that Eurasian lynx populations shared a common history until 100,000 years ago, when Asian and European populations started to diverge and both entered a period of continuous and widespread decline, with western populations, except Kirov, maintaining lower effective sizes than eastern populations. Population declines and increased isolation in more recent times probably drove the genetic differentiation between geographically and ecologically close westernmost European populations. By contrast, and despite the wide range of habitats covered, populations are quite homogeneous genetically across the Asian range, showing a pattern of isolation by distance and providing little genetic support for the several proposed subspecies. Mitogenomic and nuclear divergences and population declines starting during the Late Pleistocene can be mostly attributed to climatic fluctuations and early human influence, but the widespread and sustained decline since the Holocene is more probably the consequence of anthropogenic impacts which intensified in recent centuries, especially in western Europe. Genetic erosion in isolated European populations and lack of evidence for long‐term isolation argue for the restoration of lost population connectivity.     

Can effective population size estimates be used to monitor population trends of woodland bats? A case study of Myotis bechsteinii

Molecular approaches to calculate effective population size estimates (Ne) are increasingly used as an alternative to long‐term demographic monitoring of wildlife populations. However, the complex ecology of most long‐lived species and the consequent uncertainties in model assumptions means that effective population size estimates are often imprecise. Although methods exist to incorporate age structure into Ne estimations for long‐lived species with overlapping generations, they are rarely used owing to the lack of relevant information for most wild populations. Here, we performed a case study on an elusive woodland bat, Myotis bechsteinii, to compare the use of the parentage assignment Ne estimator (EPA) with the more commonly used linkage disequilibrium (LD) Ne estimator in detecting long‐term population trends, and assessed the impacts of deploying different overall sample sizes. We used genotypic data from a previously published study, and simulated 48 contrasting demographic scenarios over 150 years using the life history characteristics of this species The LD method strongly outperformed the EPA method. As expected, smaller sample sizes resulted in a reduced ability to detect population trends. Nevertheless, even the smallest sample size tested (n = 30) could detect important changes (60%–80% decline) with the LD method. These results demonstrate that genetic approaches can be an effective way to monitor long‐lived species, such as bats, provided that they are undertaken over multiple decades.     

Testing for shared biogeographic history in the lower Central American freshwater fish assemblage using comparative phylogeography: concerted,independent, or multiple evolutionary responses?

A central goal of comparative phylogeography is determining whether codistributed species experienced (1) concerted evolutionary responses to past geological and climatic events, indicated by congruent spatial and temporal patterns (“concerted‐response hypothesis”); (2) independent responses, indicated by spatial incongruence (“independent‐response hypothesis”); or (3) multiple responses (“multiple‐response hypothesis”), indicated by spatial congruence but temporal incongruence (“pseudocongruence”) or spatial and temporal incongruence (“pseudoincongruence”). We tested these competing hypotheses using DNA sequence data from three livebearing fish species codistributed in the Nicaraguan depression of Central America (Alfaro cultratus, Poecilia gillii, and Xenophallus umbratilis) that we predicted might display congruent responses due to co‐occurrence in identical freshwater drainages. Spatial analyses recovered different subdivisions of genetic structure for each species, despite shared finer‐scale breaks in northwestern Costa Rica (also supported by phylogenetic results). Isolation‐with‐migration models estimated incongruent timelines of among‐region divergences, with A. cultratus and Xenophallus populations diverging over Miocene–mid‐Pleistocene while P. gillii populations diverged over mid‐late Pleistocene. Approximate Bayesian computation also lent substantial support to multiple discrete divergences over a model of simultaneous divergence across shared spatial breaks (e.g., Bayes factor [B₁₀] = 4.303 for Ψ [no. of divergences] > 1 vs. Ψ = 1). Thus, the data support phylogeographic pseudoincongruence consistent with the multiple‐response hypothesis. Model comparisons also indicated incongruence in historical demography, for example, support for intraspecific late Pleistocene population growth was unique to P. gillii, despite evidence for finer‐scale population expansions in the other taxa. Empirical tests for phylogeographic congruence indicate that multiple evolutionary responses to historical events have shaped the population structure of freshwater species codistributed within the complex landscapes in/around the Nicaraguan depression. Recent community assembly through different routes (i.e., different past distributions or colonization routes), and intrinsic ecological differences among species, has likely contributed to the unique phylogeographical patterns displayed by these Neotropical fishes.     

The impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on divergence times and historical population sizes in Thylamys opossums from the Andes

Climate oscillations during the Quaternary altered the distributions of terrestrial animals at a global scale. In mountainous regions, temperature fluctuations may have led to shifts in range size and population size as species tracked their shifting habitats upslope or downslope. This creates the potential for both allopatric speciation and population size fluctuations, as species are either constrained to smaller patches of habitat at higher elevations or able to expand into broader areas at higher latitudes. We considered the impact of climate oscillations on three pairs of marsupial species from the Andes (Thylamys opossums) by inferring divergence times and demographic changes. We compare four different divergence dating approaches, using anywhere from one to 26 loci. Each pair comprises a northern (tropical) lineage and a southern (subtropical to temperate) lineage. We predicted that divergences would have occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) period approximately 125 000 years ago and that population sizes for northern and southern lineages would either contract or expand, respectively. Our results suggest that all three north–south pairs diverged in the late Pleistocene during or slightly after the LIG. The three northern lineages showed no signs of population expansion, whereas two southern lineages exhibited dramatic, recent expansions. We attribute the difference in responses between tropical and subtropical lineages to the availability of ‘montane‐like’ habitats at lower elevations in regions at higher latitudes. We conclude that climate oscillations of the late Quaternary had a powerful impact on the evolutionary history of some of these species, both promoting speciation and leading to significant population size shifts.     

Genomic data detect corresponding signatures of population size change on an ecological time scale in two salamander species

Understanding the demography of species over recent history (e.g. <100 years) is critical in studies of ecology and evolution, but records of population history are rarely available. Surveying genetic variation is a potential alternative to census‐based estimates of population size, and can yield insight into the demography of a population. However, to assess the performance of genetic methods, it is important to compare their estimates of population history to known demography. Here, we leveraged the exceptional resources from a wetland with 37 years of amphibian mark–recapture data to study the utility of genetically based demographic inference on salamander species with documented population declines (Ambystoma talpoideum) and expansions (A. opacum), patterns that have been shown to be correlated with changes in wetland hydroperiod. We generated ddRAD data from two temporally sampled populations of A. opacum (1993, 2013) and A. talpoideum (1984, 2011) and used coalescent‐based demographic inference to compare alternate evolutionary models. For both species, demographic model inference supported population size changes that corroborated mark–recapture data. Parameter estimation in A. talpoideum was robust to our variations in analytical approach, while estimates for A. opacum were highly inconsistent, tempering our confidence in detecting a demographic trend in this species. Overall, our robust results in A. talpoideum suggest that genome‐based demographic inference has utility on an ecological scale, but researchers should also be cognizant that these methods may not work in all systems and evolutionary scenarios. Demographic inference may be an important tool for population monitoring and conservation management planning.