Multiple infections, immune dynamics, and the evolution of virulence

Understanding the effect of multiple infections is essential for the prediction (and eventual control) of virulence evolution. Some theoretical studies have considered the possibility that several strains coexist in the same host (coinfection), but few have taken their within-host dynamics explicitly into account. Here, we develop a nested approach based on a simple model for the interaction of parasite strains with their host's immune system. We study virulence evolution by linking the within-host dynamics to an epidemiological framework that incorporates multiple infections. Our model suggests that antigenically similar parasite strains cannot coexist in the long term inside a host. We also find that the optimal level of virulence increases with the efficiency of multiple infections. Finally, we notice that coinfections create heterogeneity in the host population (with susceptible hosts and infected hosts), which can lead to evolutionary branching in the parasite population and the emergence of a hypervirulent parasite strategy. We interpret this result as a parasite specialization to the infectious state of the hosts. Our study has experimental and theoretical implications in a virulence management perspective.     

Host density and the evolution of parasite virulence

Social and cultural habits of human populations affect the biological evolution of the agents of infectious diseases. Measles and similar diseases have evolved in the Old World and cannot have existed in their present form before the rise of the great river valley civilizations. It is suggested that increased virulence of measles in white and indigenous communities in America 1500-1800 may be due to a rare strain of the virus, which was selected during transfer from Europe. The release of viruses for biological pest control has provided new material for the study of the co-evolution of host-parasite systems, which has upset the dogma "evolution tends to avirulence". It is pointed out that this issue is closely related to the group selection debate among ethologists, i.e. to the problem: how can group selection overcome individual selection? A model is proposed in which differential growth of two strains of a parasite within the host and their transmission to new hosts is considered. It is supposed that transmission stages excreted by infectious hosts enter a common pool where they are mixed before infecting new hosts. Under these conditions, selection of the slower strain is possible only if the mean size of parasite inoculum is very small, i.e. if the density of transmission stages in the environment is low. The impact of this result on host pathology depends on the relation between virulence and transmission efficiency of the parasite.     

Biological control in a disturbed environment

Most ecological and epidemiological models describe systems with continuous uninterrupted interactions between populations. Many systems, though, have ecological disturbances, such as those associated with planting and harvesting of a seasonal crop. In this paper, we introduce host–parasite–hyperparasite systems as models of biological control in a disturbed environment, where the host–parasite interactions are discontinuous. One model is a parasite–hyperparasite system designed to capture the essence of biological control and the other is a host–parasite–hyperparasite system that incorporates many more features of the population dynamics. Two types of discontinuity are included in the models. One corresponds to a pulse of new parasites at harvest and the other reflects the discontinuous presence of the host due to planting and harvesting. Such discontinuities are characteristic of many ecosystems involving parasitism or other interactions with an annual host. The models are tested against data from an experiment investigating the persistent biological control of the fungal plant parasite of lettuce Sclerotinia minor by the fungal hyperparasite Sporidesmium sclerotivorum, over successive crops. Using a combination of mathematical analysis, model fitting and parameter estimation, the factors that contribute the observed persistence of the parasite are examined. Analytical results show that repeated planting and harvesting of the host allows the parasite to persist by maintaining a quantity of host tissue in the system on which the parasite can reproduce. When the host dynamics are not included explicitly in the model, we demonstrate that homogeneous mixing fails to predict the persistence of the parasite population, while incorporating spatial heterogeneity by allowing for heterogeneous mixing prevents fade-out. Including the host''s dynamics lessens the effect of heterogeneous mixing on persistence, though the predicted values for the parasite population are closer to the observed values. An alternative hypothesis for persistence involving a stepped change in rates of infection is also tested and model fitting is used to show that changes in some environmental conditions may contribute to parasite persistence. The importance of disturbances and periodic forcing in models for interacting populations is discussed.     

A test of heterogeneous mixing as a mechanism for ecological persistence in a disturbed environment

Persistence is a central issue in population ecology with important implications for population management. Most theoretical studies have focused on continually interacting populations, even though many systems are subject to ecological disturbances which confound analysis of persistence. In this paper, we use a combination of a simple parasite–hyperparasite model with disturbances and field data to investigate the factors contributing to the observed persistence of the parasite population. The field data are taken from a two-year experiment (including five growing seasons) investigating the use of the mycoparasite Sporidesmium sclerotivorum as a persistent biological control agent of Sclerotinia minor, an economically important fungal parasite of lettuce. We show that the standard assumption of homogeneous mixing fails to predict the observed persistence of the parasite population. We demonstrate that allowing for heterogeneous mixing prevents the fade-out predicted in the homogeneous mixing case. The implications of the results for broad classes of host–parasite systems are discussed.     

Vertical Transmission Selects for Reduced Virulence in a Plant Virus and for Increased Resistance in the Host

For the last three decades, evolutionary biologists have sought to understand which factors modulate the evolution of parasite virulence. Although theory has identified several of these modulators, their effect has seldom been analysed experimentally. We investigated the role of two such major factors—the mode of transmission, and host adaptation in response to parasite evolution—in the evolution of virulence of the plant virus Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) in its natural host Arabidopsis thaliana. To do so, we serially passaged three CMV strains under strict vertical and strict horizontal transmission, alternating both modes of transmission. We quantified seed (vertical) transmission rate, virus accumulation, effect on plant growth and virulence of evolved and non-evolved viruses in the original plants and in plants derived after five passages of vertical transmission. Our results indicated that vertical passaging led to adaptation of the virus to greater vertical transmission, which was associated with reductions of virus accumulation and virulence. On the other hand, horizontal serial passages did not significantly modify virus accumulation and virulence. The observed increases in CMV seed transmission, and reductions in virus accumulation and virulence in vertically passaged viruses were due also to reciprocal host adaptation during vertical passages, which additionally reduced virulence and multiplication of vertically passaged viruses. This result is consistent with plant-virus co-evolution. Host adaptation to vertically passaged viruses was traded-off against reduced resistance to the non-evolved viruses. Thus, we provide evidence of the key role that the interplay between mode of transmission and host-parasite co-evolution has in determining the evolution of virulence.     

Empirical support for optimal virulence in a castrating parasite

The trade-off hypothesis for the evolution of virulence predicts that parasite transmission stage production and host exploitation are balanced such that lifetime transmission success (LTS) is maximised. However, the experimental evidence for this prediction is weak, mainly because LTS, which indicates parasite fitness, has been difficult to measure. For castrating parasites, this simple model has been modified to take into account that parasites convert host reproductive resources into transmission stages. Parasites that kill the host too early will hardly benefit from these resources, while postponing the killing of the host results in diminished returns. As predicted from optimality models, a parasite inducing castration should therefore castrate early, but show intermediate levels of virulence, where virulence is measured as time to host killing. We studied virulence in an experimental system where a bacterial parasite castrates its host and produces spores that are not released until after host death. This permits estimating the LTS of the parasite, which can then be related to its virulence. We exposed replicate individual Daphnia magna (Crustacea) of one host clone to the same amount of bacterial spores and followed individuals until their death. We found that the parasite shows strong variation in the time to kill its host and that transmission stage production peaks at an intermediate level of virulence. A further experiment tested for the genetic basis of variation in virulence by comparing survival curves of daphniids infected with parasite spores obtained from early killing versus late killing infections. Hosts infected with early killer spores had a significantly higher death rate as compared to those infected with late killers, indicating that variation in time to death was at least in part caused by genetic differences among parasites. We speculate that the clear peak in lifetime reproductive success at intermediate killing times may be caused by the exceptionally strong physiological trade-off between host and parasite reproduction. This is the first experimental study to demonstrate that the production of propagules is highest at intermediate levels of virulence and that parasite genetic variability is available to drive the evolution of virulence in this system.     

PARASITE CO‐TRANSMISSION AND THE EVOLUTIONARY EPIDEMIOLOGY OF VIRULENCE

Hosts are often co‐infected by several parasite genotypes of the same species or even by different species and this is known to affect virulence evolution. However, epidemiological models typically assume that only one of the co‐infecting strains can be transmitted at the same time, which is often at odds with the observed biology. Here, I study the effect of co‐transmission on virulence evolution in a case where parasites compete for host resources. For co‐infections by strains of the same species, increased co‐transmission selects for less virulent strains. This is because co‐transmission aligns the interests of co‐infecting strains, thus decreasing the selective pressure for increased within‐host competitiveness. For co‐infection caused by different parasite species, the evolutionary outcome depends on the respective virulence of the two parasite species. Finally, I investigate asymmetric scenarios, for example that of plant viruses that require “helper” molecules produced by viruses from another species to be transmitted. These results show that even if parasite strains compete for host resources, the prevalence of co‐infections can be a poor predictor of virulence evolution.     

Mixed infections and insect–pathogen interactions

Abstract Most studies of insect–pathogen interactions consider the direct interaction between one disease agent and one species of host. However, given that hosts are subject to challenge from many pathogen/parasite species, mixed infections are probably common. In this study, using the desert locust and two species of fungal entomopathogen, we show how mixed infection with a largely avirulent pathogen can alter the virulence and reproduction of a second, highly virulent pathogen. We find that two strains of the avirulent pathogen vary in their interaction with the virulent pathogen, depending on the order of infection and environmental conditions. We propose that avirulent pathogens, which have largely been overlooked to date, could play a significant role in host–pathogen dynamics, with implications for biological control and evolution of virulence.     

A kin selection model for the evolution of virulence.

The costs and benefits of parasite virulence are analysed in an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) model. Increased host mortality caused by disease (virulence) reduces a parasite's fitness by damaging its food supply. The fitness costs of high virulence may be offset by the benefits of increased transmission or ability to withstand the host's defences. It has been suggested that multiple infections lead to higher virulence because of competition among parasite strains within a host. A quantitative prediction is given for the ESS virulence rate as a function of the coefficient of relatedness among co-infecting strains. The prediction depends on the quantitative relation between the costs of virulence and the benefits of transmission or avoidance of host defences. The particular mechanisms by which parasites can increase their transmission or avoid host defences also have a key role in the evolution of virulence when there are multiple infections.     

Vaccine-driven evolution of parasite virulence and immune evasion in age-structured population: the case of pertussis

Despite enormous success of mass immunization programs in reducing incidence of infectious diseases, vaccine-escape strains have emerged perhaps as a consequence of strong selection pressures exerted on parasites by vaccines. Pertussis presents a well-documented example. As a childhood infection, it exhibits age-specific transmission biased to children. Assuming different transmission rates between children and adults, I study, by means of an age-structured epidemic model, evolutionary dynamics of parasite virulence in a vaccinated population. I find that the age-structure does not affect the evolutionary dynamics of parasite virulence. Also, based on empirical data reporting antigenic divergence with vaccine strains and mutations in virulence-associated genes in pertussis populations, I allow for parallel occurrence of mutations in parasite virulence and associated immune evasion. I conclude that this simultaneous adaptation of both traits may substantially alter the evolutionary course of the parasite. In particular, higher values of virulence are favoured once the parasite is able to evade the transmission-blocking vaccine-induced immunity. On the other hand, lower values of virulence are selected for once the parasite evolves the ability to evade the virulence-blocking vaccine-induced immunity. I emphasize the importance of multi-trait evolution to assess the direction of parasite adaptation more accurately.     

Within-host parasite cooperation and the evolution of virulence

Infections by multiple genotypes are common in nature and are known to select for higher levels of virulence for some parasites. When parasites produce public goods (PGs) within the host, such co-infections have been predicted to select for lower levels of virulence. However, this prediction is based on simplifying assumptions regarding epidemiological feedbacks on the multiplicity of infections (MOI). Here, we analyse the case of parasites producing a PG (for example, siderophore-producing bacteria) using a nested model that ties together within-host and epidemiological processes. We find that the prediction that co-infection should select for less virulent strains for PG-producing parasites is only valid if both parasite transmission and virulence are linear functions of parasite density. If there is a trade-off relationship such that virulence increases more rapidly than transmission, or if virulence also depends on the total amount of PGs produced, then more complex relationships between virulence and the MOI are predicted. Our results reveal that explicitly taking into account the distribution of parasite strains among hosts could help better understand the selective pressures faced by parasites at the population level.     

Within-host Competition Does Not Select for Virulence in Malaria Parasites; Studies with Plasmodium yoelii

In endemic areas with high transmission intensities, malaria infections are very often composed of multiple genetically distinct strains of malaria parasites. It has been hypothesised that this leads to intra-host competition, in which parasite strains compete for resources such as space and nutrients. This competition may have repercussions for the host, the parasite, and the vector in terms of disease severity, vector fitness, and parasite transmission potential and fitness. It has also been argued that within-host competition could lead to selection for more virulent parasites. Here we use the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium yoelii to assess the consequences of mixed strain infections on disease severity and parasite fitness. Three isogenic strains with dramatically different growth rates (and hence virulence) were maintained in mice in single infections or in mixed strain infections with a genetically distinct strain. We compared the virulence (defined as harm to the mammalian host) of mixed strain infections with that of single infections, and assessed whether competition impacted on parasite fitness, assessed by transmission potential. We found that mixed infections were associated with a higher degree of disease severity and a prolonged infection time. In the mixed infections, the strain with the slower growth rate was often responsible for the competitive exclusion of the faster growing strain, presumably through host immune-mediated mechanisms. Importantly, and in contrast to previous work conducted with Plasmodium chabaudi, we found no correlation between parasite virulence and transmission potential to mosquitoes, suggesting that within-host competition would not drive the evolution of parasite virulence in P. yoelii.     

The acquisition of hypovirulence in host-pathogen systems with three trophic levels

A major focus of research on the dynamics of host-pathogen interactions has been the evolution of pathogen virulence, which is defined as the loss in host fitness due to infection. It is usually assumed that changes in pathogen virulence are the result of selection to increase pathogen fitness. However, in some cases, pathogens have acquired hypovirulence by themselves becoming infected with hyperparasites. For example, the chestnut blight fungus Cryphonectria parasitica has become hypovirulent in some areas by acquiring a double-stranded RNA hyperparasite that debilitates the pathogen, thereby reducing its virulence to the host. In this article, we develop and analyze a mathematical model of the dynamics of host-pathogen interactions with three trophic levels. The system may be dominated by either uninfected (virulent) or hyperparasitized (hypovirulent) pathogens, or by a mixture of the two. Hypovirulence may allow some recovery of the host population, but it can also harm the host population if the hyperparasite moves the transmission rate of the pathogen closer to its evolutionarily stable strategy. In the latter case, the hyperparasite is effectively a mutualist of the pathogen. Selection among hyperparasites will often minimize the deleterious effects, or maximize the beneficial effects, of the hyperparasite on the pathogen. Increasing the frequency of multiple infections of the same host individual promotes the acquisition of hypovirulence by increasing the opportunity for horizontal transmission of the hyperparasite. This effect opposes the usual theoretical expectation that multiple infections promote the evolution of more virulent pathogens via selection for rapid growth within hosts.     

Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System

Vector-borne disease transmission is a common dissemination mode used by many pathogens to spread in a host population. Similar to directly transmitted diseases, the within-host interaction of a vector-borne pathogen and a host’s immune system influences the pathogen’s transmission potential between hosts via vectors. Yet there are few theoretical studies on virulence–transmission trade-offs and evolution in vector-borne pathogen–host systems. Here, we consider an immuno-epidemiological model that links the within-host dynamics to between-host circulation of a vector-borne disease. On the immunological scale, the model mimics antibody-pathogen dynamics for arbovirus diseases, such as Rift Valley fever and West Nile virus. The within-host dynamics govern transmission and host mortality and recovery in an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model. By considering multiple pathogen strains and multiple competing host populations differing in their within-host replication rate and immune response parameters, respectively, we derive evolutionary optimization principles for both pathogen and host. Invasion analysis shows that the \({\mathcal {R}}_0\) maximization principle holds for the vector-borne pathogen. For the host, we prove that evolution favors minimizing case fatality ratio (CFR). These results are utilized to compute host and pathogen evolutionary trajectories and to determine how model parameters affect evolution outcomes. We find that increasing the vector inoculum size increases the pathogen \({\mathcal {R}}_0\), but can either increase or decrease the pathogen virulence (the host CFR), suggesting that vector inoculum size can contribute to virulence of vector-borne diseases in distinct ways.     

Host-parasite interactions for virulence and resistance in a malaria model system

A rich body of theory on the evolution of virulence (disease severity) attempts to predict the conditions that cause parasites to harm their hosts, and a central assumption to many of these models is that the relative virulence of pathogen strains is stable across a range of host types. In contrast, a largely nonoverlapping body of theory on coevolution assumes that the fitness effects of parasites on hosts is not stable across host genotype, but instead depends on host genotype by parasite genotype interactions. If such genetic interactions largely determine virulence, it becomes difficult to predict the strength and direction of selection on virulence. In this study, we tested for host-by-parasite interactions in a medically relevant vertebrate disease model: the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi in laboratory mice. We found that parasite and particularly host main effects explained most of the variance in virulence (anaemia and weight loss), resistance (parasite burden) and transmission potential. Host-by-parasite interactions were of limited influence, but nevertheless had significant effects. This raises the possibility that host heterogeneity may affect the rate of any parasite response to selection on virulence. This study of rodent malaria is one of the first tests for host-by-parasite interactions in any vertebrate disease; host-by-parasite interactions typical of those assumed in coevolutionary models were present, but were by no means pervasive.     

Transmission stage investment of malaria parasites in response to in-host competition

Conspecific competition occurs in a multitude of organisms, particularly in parasites, where several clones are commonly sharing limited resources inside their host. In theory, increased or decreased transmission investment might maximize parasite fitness in the face of competition, but, to our knowledge, this has not been tested experimentally. We developed and used a clone-specific, stage-specific, quantitative PCR protocol to quantify Plasmodium chabaudi replication and transmission stage densities in mixed-clone infections. We co-infected mice from two strains with an avirulent and virulent parasite clone and found competitive suppression of in-host (blood-stage) parasite densities and generally corresponding reductions in transmission stage production, with the virulent clone obtaining overall competitive superiority. In response to competitive suppression, there was little evidence of any alteration in transmission stage investment, apart from a small reduction by one of the two clones in one of the two host strains. This alteration did not result in a competitive advantage, although it might have reduced the disadvantage. This study supports much of the current literature, which predicts that conspecific in-host competition will result in a competitive advantage and positive selection for virulent clones and thus the evolution of higher virulence.     

Virulence not only costs but also benefits the transmission of a fungal virus

Current theory suggests that cost-benefit relationships govern the evolution of parasite virulence. The cost of virulence is expected to be high for fungal viruses, which are obligate parasites and completely dependent on their hosts. The majority of fungal viruses infect their hosts without any apparent symptoms. Cryphonectria hypovirus 1 (CHV-1), in contrast, is virulent and debilitates its host, Cryphonectria parasitica. However, the virulence of CHV-1 is associated with high costs for virus transmission, such as an attenuated fungal growth and reduced production of the fungal spores spreading the virus. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that virulence may not only have costs but also benefits for transmitting CHV-1 across vegetative incompatibility barriers between fungi. We investigated viruses with low, medium, and high virulence, and determined their transmission rate per host-to-host contact (transmissibility). The average transmission rate across all combinations tested was 53% for the most virulent virus, 37% for the virus with intermediate virulence, and 20% for the virus with lowest virulence. These results showed that increased virulence was strongly correlated with increased transmissibility, potentially counterbalancing virulence costs. This association of virulence and transmissibility may explain why CHV-1 spread widely and evolved higher virulence than most other fungal viruses.     

The evolution of parasite virulence, superinfection, and host resistance

We analyze the evolutionary consequences of host resistance (the ability to decrease the probability of being infected by parasites) for the evolution of parasite virulence (the deleterious effect of a parasite on its host). When only single infections occur, host resistance does not affect the evolution of parasite virulence. However, when superinfections occur, resistance tends to decrease the evolutionarily stable (ES) level of parasite virulence. We first study a simple model in which the host does not coevolve with the parasite (i.e., the frequency of resistant hosts is independent of the parasite). We show that a higher proportion of resistant host decreases the ES level of parasite virulence. Higher levels of the efficiency of host resistance, however, do not always decrease the ES parasite virulence. The implications of these results for virulence management (evolutionary consequences of public health policies) are discussed. Second, we analyze the case where host resistance is allowed to coevolve with parasite virulence using the classical gene-for-gene (GFG) model of host-parasite interaction. It is shown that GFG coevolution leads to lower parasite virulence (in comparison with a fully susceptible host population). The model clarifies and relates the different components of the cost of parasitism: infectivity (ability to infect the host) and virulence (deleterious effect) in an evolutionary perspective.     

Within-host population dynamics and the evolution of microparasites in a heterogeneous host population

Abstract Why do parasites harm their hosts? The general understanding is that if the transmission rate and virulence of a parasite are linked, then the parasite must harm its host to maximize its transmission. The exact nature of such trade‐offs remains largely unclear, but for vertebrate hosts it probably involves interactions between a microparasite and the host immune system. Previous results have suggested that in a homogeneous host population in the absence of super‐ or coinfection, within‐host dynamics lead to selection of the parasite with an intermediate growth rate that is just being controlled by the immune system before it kills the host (Antia et al. 1994). In this paper, we examine how this result changes when heterogeneity is introduced to the host population. We incorporate the simplest form of heterogeneity–random heterogeneity in the parameters describing the size of the initial parasite inoculum, the immune response of the host, and the lethal density at which the parasite kills the host. We find that the general conclusion of the previous model holds: parasites evolve some intermediate growth rate. However, in contrast with the generally accepted view, we find that virulence (measured by the case mortality or the rate of parasite‐induced host mortality) increases with heterogeneity. Finally, we link the within‐host and between‐host dynamics of parasites. We show how the parameters for epidemiological spread of the disease can be estimated from the within‐host dynamics, and in doing so examine the way in which trade‐offs between these epidemiological parameters arise as a consequence of the interaction of the parasite and the immune response of the host.