Human Health Damages due to Indoor Sources of Organic Compounds and Radioactivity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment of Dwellings - Part 2: Damage Scores (10 pp)

- Part 1: Characterisation factors (DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/lca2004.12.194.1) Part 2: Damage scores (DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/lca2004.12.194.2) - Preamble. In this series of two papers, a methodology to calculate damages to human health caused by indoor emissions from building materials is presented and applied. Part 1 presents the theoretical foundation of the indoor emission methodology developed, as well as characterisation factors calculated for 36 organic compounds, radon and gamma radiation. Part 2 calculates damage scores of building materials with the characterisation factors presented in part 1. The relevancy of including indoor air emission in the full damage scores at a material level and a dwelling level is also quantified and discussed. Goal, Scope and Background In industrialized countries such as the Netherlands, the concentration of pollutants originating from building materials in the indoor environment has shown an increasing trend during the last decades due to improved isolation and decreased ventilation of dwellings. These pollutants may give rise to negative impacts on human health, ranging from irritation to tumours. However, such negative impacts on health are not included in current life cycle assessments of dwellings. In this study, damages to the health of occupants caused by a number of organic compounds and by radioactivity emitted by building materials, including those due to indoor exposure, have been calculated for a number of categories of common building materials. The total damage to human health due to emissions occurring in the use phase of the Dutch reference dwelling is compared with the total damage to human health associated with the rest of the life cycle of the same dwelling. Methods Human health damage scores per kilogram of building material for compartments of the Dutch reference dwelling have been calculated using the methodology described in part I of this research. This methodology includes the calculation of the fate, effect and damage factors, based on disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and has been applied assuming average concentrations of pollutants in building materials. Damage scores for health impacts of exposure to pollutants emitted during the production and the disposal phase of the same building materials were calculated using standard LCIA methodology. Results and Discussion Human health damage scores due to emissions of pollutants occurring in the use phase of building materials applied at the first or second floor are up to 20 times lower or higher than the corresponding damage scores associated with the rest of the life cycle of the same building materials. The damage scores due to emissions occurring in the use phase of building materials applied in the crawlspace are up to 105 times lower than those of building materials applied in the other compartments. The total damage to human health due to emissions occurring in the use phase of the Dutch reference dwelling has the same order of magnitude as the total damage to human health associated with the rest of the life cycle of the same dwelling. At a dwelling level, radon and gamma radiation are dominant in the human health damage score among the pollutants studied. Conclusion Health damages due to indoor exposure to contaminants emitted by building materials cannot be neglected for several materials when compared with damage scores associated with the rest of the life cycle of the same building materials. Indoor exposure to pollutants emitted by building materials should be included in the life cycle assessment of dwellings in order to make the assessment better reflect full impact of the life cycle.     

BasinBox: A Generic Multimedia Fate Model for Predicting the Fate of Chemicals in River Catchments

Multimedia fate models have proven to be very useful tools in chemical risk assessment and management. This paper presents BasinBox, a newly developed steady-state generic multimedia fate model for evaluating risks of new and existing chemicals in river basins. The model concepts, as well as the intermedia processes quantified in the model, are outlined, and an overview of the required input parameters is given. To test the BasinBox model, calculations were carried out for predicting the fate of chemicals in the river Rhine basin. This was done for a set of 3175 hypothetical chemicals and three emission scenarios to air, river water and cropland soils. For each of these hypothetical chemicals and emission scenarios the concentration ratio between the downstream area and the upstream area was calculated for all compartments. From these calculations it appeared that BasinBox predicts significant concentration differences between upstream and downstream areas of the Rhine river basin for certain types of chemicals and emission scenarios. There is a clear trend of increasing chemical concentrations in downstream direction of the river basin. The calculations show that taking into account spatial variability between upstream, midstream and downstream areas of large river basins can be useful in the predictions of environmental concentrations by multimedia fate models.     

Human Health Damages due to Indoor Sources of Organic Compounds and Radioactivity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment of Dwellings - Part 1: Characterisation Factors (8 pp)

- Part 1: Characterisation factors (DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/lca2004.12.194.1) Part 2: Damage scores (DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/lca2004.12.194.2) - Preamble. In this series of two papers, a methodology to calculate damages to human health caused by indoor emissions from building materials is presented and applied. Part 1 presents the theoretical foundation of the indoor emission methodology developed, as well as characterisation factors calculated for 36 organic compounds, radon and gamma radiation. Part 2 calculates damage scores of building materials with the characterisation factors presented in part 1. The relevancy of including indoor air emission in the full damage scores at a material level and a dwelling level is also quantified and discussed. Goal, Scope and Background Methodologies based on life cycle assessment have been developed to calculate the environmental impact of dwellings. Human health damage due to exposure to substances emitted to indoor air are not included in these methodologies. In order to compare this damage with human health damages associated with the rest of the life cycle of the dwelling, a methodology has been developed to calculate damages to human health caused by pollutants emitted from building materials. Methods Fate, exposure and health effects are addressed in the calculation procedure. The methodology is suitable for organic substances, radon and elements emitting gamma radiation. The (Dutch reference) dwelling used in the calculation was divided in three compartments: crawl space, first floor and second floor. Fate factors have been calculated based on indoor and outdoor intake fractions, dose conversion factors or extrapolation from measurements. Effect factors have been calculated based on unit risk factors, (extrapolated) effect doses or linear relationship between dose and cancer cases. Damage factors are based on disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Results and Discussion Characterisation factors have been calculated for 36 organic compounds, radon and gamma radiation emitted by building materials applied in a Dutch reference dwelling. For organic compounds and radon, the characterisation factors of emissions to the second floor are 10–20% higher than the characterisation factors of emissions to the first floor. For the first and second floor, the characterisation factors are dominated by damage to human health as a result of indoor exposure. The relative contribution of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects to the characterisation factors is generally within one order of magnitude, and up to three orders of magnitude for formaldehyde. Conclusion Health effects due to indoor exposure to pollutants emitted from building materials appear to be dominant in the characterisation factors over outdoor exposure to such pollutants. The health effects of emissions of organic compounds and gamma radiation in the crawl space are very small compared to the health effects of emissions into the other compartments. Using the characterisation factors calculated in this study, it is possible to calculate the human health damage due to emissions of substances and radiation emitted to indoor air and compare this damage with damages to human health associated with the rest of the life cycle of the material. This is the subject of part II of this research.     

辽河河口区河流中石油类污染物归宿

以辽河油田某采油废水处理厂外排水中石油类污染物为对象,对比分析了不同季节条件下河流中石油类污染物的迁移特征,估算了石油类污染物不同归宿途径的贡献率.结果表明,不同季节条件下,河流中石油类污染物浓度的减少与迁移距离呈显著负相关,但各族组成(烷烃组分、芳烃组分、极性物质)的浓度与比例变化的季节差异显著;冬季河流中石油类污染物的主要归宿途径为沉淀作用(39.5%)与迁移输出(60.5%);以冬季沉淀作用为参考,夏季河流中石油类污染物的主要归宿途径贡献率分别为39.5%(沉淀作用)、42.4%(降解作用)18.1%(迁移输出),且污染物族组成的各归宿途径贡献率差别明显.     

Generic spatial classes for human health impacts, Part I:

A new method for the spatially differentiated assessment of impacts of airborne pollutants on human health is presented. It is applicable to primary pollutants with linear exposure response functions. This includes the most important primary air pollutants from transportation and energy generation. The article looks at the spatial differentiation of impacts due to emission height and the local population density distribution around the emission site, as has been predicted using a Gaussian plume model. The differentiation due to population density is captured by way of five generic spatial classes: large cities in agglomerations, highly densified districts in agglomerations, cities in urbanized regions, country average districts, and low density rural districts in rural regions. Average impacts are calculated for each class. The method is simple enough to be applied to a large number of emissions within Life Cycle Assessments. It was used to calculate site-dependent exposure efficiencies for a variety of primary pollutants emitted at different heights. For traffic emissions of pollutants with short atmospheric residence times, the exposure efficiencies vary by a factor of 5 across Germany and by a factor of 75 across Europe. This differentiation due to population density decreases significantly with an increasing atmospheric residence time of the pollutants and with an increasing emission height.     

Fate and Transport of Contaminants in Indoor Air

Significant media and regulatory attention has been given to hazardous waste sites and to the remediation of such sites to protect nearby building occupants. Soil vapor intrusion (SVI) can be a major factor contributing to increased occupant expo sure to chemicals. However, there are many possible sources of indoor air pollution, thus complicating routine assessments. The intent of this paper is to provide an overview of the state of understanding related to chemical fate in the indoor environment. A generalized model is presented in the form of an ordinary differential equation that includes several terms that are not commonly accounted for in models involving the effects of SVI in indoor air. In addition to soil vapor intrusion several other sources of indoor contamination are described. Typical air exchange rates for residential dwellings are presented. Finally, recent findings related to the sorptive interactions between indoor air pollutants and indoor materials, as well as homogeneous and heterogeneous chemical reactions that can affect indoor air pollutants are described.     

A characterization model with spatial and temporal resolution for life cycle impact assessment of photochemical precursors in the United States

Background, aim, and scope  Traditional life cycle impact assessment methodologies have used aggregated characterization factors, neglecting spatial and temporal variations in regional impacts like photochemical oxidant formation. This increases the uncertainty of the LCA results and diminishes the ease of decision-making. This study compares four common impact assessment methods, CML2001, Eco-indicator 99, TRACI, and EDIP2003, on their underlying models, spatial and temporal resolution, and the level at which photochemical oxidant impacts are calculated. A new characterization model is proposed that incorporates spatial and temporal differentiation. Materials and methods  A photochemical air quality modeling system (CAMx-MM5-SMOKE) is used to simulate the process of formation, transformation, transport, and removal of photochemical pollutants. Monthly characterization factors for individual US states are calculated at three levels along the cause–effect chain, namely, fate level, human and ecosystem exposure level, and human effect level. Results and discussion  The results indicate that a spatial variability of one order of magnitude and a temporal variability of two orders of magnitude exist in both the fate level and human exposure and effect level characterization factors for NO_x. The summer time characterization factors for NO_x are higher than the winter time factors. However, for anthropogenic VOC, the summer time factors are lower than the winter time in almost half of the states. This is due to the higher emission rates of biogenic VOCs in the summer. The ecosystem exposure factors for NO_x and VOC do not follow a regular pattern and show a spatial variation of about three orders of magnitude. They do not show strong correlation with the human exposure factors. Sensitivity analysis has shown that the effect of meteorology and emission inputs is limited to a factor of three, which is several times smaller than the variation seen in the factors. Conclusions  Uncertainties are introduced in the characterization of photochemical precursors due to a failure to consider the spatial and temporal variations. Seasonal variations in photochemical activity influence the characterization factors more than the location of emissions. The human and ecosystem exposures occur through different mechanisms, and impacts calculated at the fate level based only on ozone concentration are not a good indicator for ecosystem impacts. Recommendations and perspectives  Spatial and temporal differentiation account for fate and transport of the pollutant, and the exposure of and effect on the sensitive human population or ecosystem. Adequate resolution for seasonal and regional processes, like photochemical oxidant formation, is important to reduce the uncertainty in impact assessment and improve decision-making power. An emphasis on incorporating some form of spatial and temporal information within standard LCI databases and using adequately resolved characterization factors will greatly increase the fidelity of a standard LCA. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Effect of Precipitation Variability on Pollutant Concentrations in Soil: Implications for Exposure and Risk Assessments

Concentrations of toxic pollutants in surface soils must be predicted in order to assess exposures and risks that may arise from emissions at incinerators and other air pollution sources. At present, concentrations are predicted using deterministic models and time-averaged values of input parameters. This steady-state equilibrium approach does not address variability in the underlying transport and fate processes. This paper explores the variability of pollutant concentrations in surface soils that arises from precipitation, an intermittent process that governs wet deposition and leaching processes. Using long-term (45 to 50 years) historical records at 6 climato-logically diverse sites, concentrations predicted using the steady-state approach are compared to those predicted using a dynamic numerical model that simulates dry and wet deposition, leaching, and pollutant accumulation in the surface layer of soil using a daily time step. The models are compared for pollutants of low, medium, and high water solubility. Both models show that predictions depend strongly on the pollutant solubility and the precipitation pattern at the location. Average concentrations differed between locations by a factor of up to 4 due to precipitation patterns; the solubility of the pollutant had a much more pronounced effect. Both models produced similar long-term trends, for example, the duration of the period needed to achieve a quasi-steady-state pollutant concentration. However, for soluble pollutants, the dynamic model produced maximum 24-hr average concentrations that exceeded long-term averages by 4 to 8 times, and long-term predictions of the dynamic model exceeded predictions of the steady-state model by 1.9 to 3.6 times (depending on the site). These differences are caused by the steady-state assumption that deposition and leaching occur continuously. While the steady-state model can be used to estimate long-term trends of moderately to highly insoluble pollutants, the dynamic model should be used to predict short-term, maximum concentrations and both short- and long-term averages of soluble pollutants. Site-specific exposure and risk assessments should consider temporal variation and the use of a dynamic model if concentrations of soluble pollutants approach risk-based target levels.     

慢速渗滤土地处理系统中优先有机物的迁移、归宿与生态风险

研究了沈阳西部城市污水慢速渗滤土地处理系统中优先有机污染物的迁移和残留情况,结果表明,土地处理系统和当地传统污灌区耕作层土壤、地下水中的优先有机污染物的总含量分别高于对照区（清水灌区）１倍和４倍以上;系统出水、地下水和传统污灌区地下水中的优先有机污染物的浓度有相似的分布、说明污灌水中的有机污染物对土壤和地下水产生一定程度的影响,但土地处理系统和当地传统污灌区生产的大米中,优先有机污染物含量与对照区相比未见显著差异．     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds in biochar and biochar‐amended soil: a review

Residual pollutants including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and carbon (aceous) nanoparticles are inevitably generated during the pyrolysis of waste biomass and remain on the solid coproduct called biochar. Such pollutants could have adverse effects on the plant growth as well as microbial community in soil. Although biochar has been proposed as a ‘carbon negative strategy’ to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions, the impacts of its application with respect to long‐term persistence and bioavailability of hazardous components are not clear. Moreover, the co‐occurrence of low molecular weight VOCs with PAHs in biochar may exert further phytotoxic effects. This review describes the basic need to unravel key mechanisms driving the storage vs. emission of these organics and the dynamics between the sorbent (biochar) and soil microbes. Moreover, there is an urgent need for standardized methods for quantitative analysis of PAHs and VOCs in biochar under environmentally relevant conditions. This review is also extended to cover current research gaps including the influence of biochar application on the short‐ and long‐term fate of PAHs and VOCs and the proper control tactics for biochar quality and associated risk.     

Economic Development,Energy Consumption,and Air Pollution: A Critical Assessment in China

Low energy efficiency, energy shortage, and energy-related environmental issues are becoming critical constraints for the sustainable development of China. This research aims for investigating the impacts of economic development on energy consumption and emissions of air pollutants in China with a comparison between China's developed regions and underdeveloped regions. The Resource and Environmental Performance Index (REPI) model is employed to analyze the performance of energy consumption, industrial waste gas, sulphur dioxide, soot, and industrial dust of selected provinces over the past 13 years. As a ratio of energy consumption or emissions of pollutants of a province and the whole country, the REPI value presents the cost of energy and environment and is not consistent with the change of absolute quantities of energy consumption or emissions of pollutants in a province. The REPI value calculated from 2000 through 2012 indicates that economic development has a certain level of impact on energy consumption and air environment but not necessarily to be negative. Economic development can improve the performance on energy consumption and air pollutants reduction as long as reasonable energy and industrial structure, improved energy efficiency, and strict environmental policies are put in place.     

森林火灾污染物质释放及其影响研究进展

森林火灾是大气中气体污染物和颗粒物的重要来源,可对全球气候系统、大气环境以及生态系统产生重要影响,对全球温室气体和含碳颗粒物释放具有重要的贡献,是推动全球气候变化的重要因素。森林火灾释放污染物已成为区域乃至全球范围内重要污染源之一,这些污染物质与辐射、能见度以及温室效应等问题直接相关。准确地描述森林火灾释放的气体和颗粒污染物释放机理、释放总量、时空分布特征、不同尺度的扩散过程模拟,以及对区域大气环境的影响,对于量化森林火灾释放污染物总量及区域影响具有重要意义。基于森林火灾污染物质释放方面的国内外文献,从火灾释放的污染物质对环境的影响、森林火灾释放污染物定量化和传输路径监测的研究方法、污染物质的扩散和运输模型以及跨区域影响等几个方面进行了综述。森林火灾释放的CO、PM₁₀和PM_2.5对环境和人的生命安全造成巨大威胁,而且森林火灾释放的污染物质能够随气流长距离传输,不仅对当地的空气造成污染,污染物也能够随着气团进行长距离传输,并在传输过程与当地气溶胶混合,形成跨区域污染。森林火灾释放污染物扩散、传输模拟通过不同模型相互耦合完成,包括可燃物载量估算模型、可燃物消耗和释放模型、污染物扩散传输模型,以及污染物预测和可视化模型等。总结了国内外森林火灾释放污染物质主要研究方法,并展望了今后研究重点:目前我国关于森林火灾释放物质相关的研究尚不足以支撑我国森林火灾温室气体释放、污染物释放等方面的研究,并且我国目前还没有发展出适合于我国的森林火灾污染物释放模型,以及污染物扩散、传输系统。森林火灾排放因子库大多数引用国外研究结果,在一定程度上增加不确定性,缺乏森林火灾对区域大气环境影响的定量化研究。因此,今后我国应加强对森林火灾污染物质释放与影响的研究,尤其是污染物质扩散和传输模型的预测和可视化研究以及排放因子的测量。     

Effects of environmental pollutants on the reproduction and welfare of ruminants

Anthropogenic pollutants comprise a wide range of synthetic organic compounds and heavy metals, which are dispersed throughout the environment, usually at low concentrations. Exposure of ruminants, as for all other animals, is unavoidable and while the levels of exposure to most chemicals are usually too low to induce any physiological effects, combinations of pollutants can act additively or synergistically to perturb multiple physiological systems at all ages but particularly in the developing foetus. In sheep, organs affected by pollutant exposure include the ovary, testis, hypothalamus and pituitary gland and bone. Reported effects of exposure include changes in organ weight and gross structure, histology and gene and protein expression but these changes are not reflected in changes in reproductive performance under the conditions tested. These results illustrate the complexity of the effects of endocrine disrupting compounds on the reproductive axis, which make it difficult to extrapolate between, or even within, species. Effects of pollutant exposure on the thyroid gland, immune, cardiovascular and obesogenic systems have not been shown explicitly, in ruminants, but work on other species suggests that these systems can also be perturbed. It is concluded that exposure to a mixture of anthropogenic pollutants has significant effects on a wide variety of physiological systems, including the reproductive system. Although this physiological insult has not yet been shown to lead to a reduction in ruminant gross performance, there are already reports indicating that anthropogenic pollutant exposure can compromise several physiological systems and may pose a significant threat to both reproductive performance and welfare in the longer term. At present, many potential mechanisms of action for individual chemicals have been identified but knowledge of factors affecting the rate of tissue exposure and of the effects of combinations of chemicals on physiological systems is poor. Nevertheless, both are vital for the identification of risks to animal productivity and welfare.     

Dairy ruminant exposure to persistent organic pollutants and excretion to milk

Human activities produce polluting compounds such as persistent organic pollutants (POPs), which may interact with agriculture. These molecules have raised concern about the risk of transfer through the food chain via the animal product. POPs are characterised by a strong persistence in the environment, a high volatility and a lipophilicity, which lead to their accumulation in fat tissues. These compounds are listed in international conventions to organise the information about their potential toxicity for humans and the environment. The aim of this paper is to synthesise current information on dairy ruminant exposure to POPs and the risk of their transfer to milk. Three major groups of POPs have been considered: the polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), the polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The results show that contamination of fodder and soil by these compounds is observed when they are exposed to emission sources (steelworks, cementworks, waste incinerators or motorways) compared with remote areas. In general, soil contamination is considered higher than plant contamination. Highest concentrations of POPs in soil may be close to 1000 ng/kg dry matter (DM) for PCDD/Fs, to 10 000 mg/kg DM for PAHs and 100 μg/kg DM for PCBs. The contamination of milk by POPs depends on environmental factors, factors related to the rearing system (fodder and potentially contaminated soil, stage of lactation, medical state of the herd) and of the characteristics of the contaminants. Transfer rates to milk have been established: for PCBs the rate of transfer varies from 5% to 90%, for PCDD/Fs from 1% to 40% and for PAHs from 0.5% to 8%. The differential transfer of the compounds towards milk is related to the hydrophobicity of the pollutants as well as to the metabolic susceptibility of the compounds.     

多环芳烃的真菌漆酶转化及污染土壤修复技术

漆酶可以转化多种有机污染物,在环境保护领域具有广泛的应用潜力。二十年来,通过多学科协同研究,对真菌漆酶转化多环芳烃的机制、特征等各方面的认识不断深入。基于漆酶等真菌木质素分解酶的污染土壤修复技术不断发展,并逐渐走向田间应用。本文首先介绍了真菌漆酶的一般作用机制与多环芳烃转化特征,结合我们的相关研究提出了漆酶作用下多环芳烃在土壤中的迁移模式;其次介绍了利用漆酶氧化原理修复污染农田土壤的潜力,着重对利用农业废弃物进行真菌生物刺激的修复实践进行了评述;最后,就漆酶转化多环芳烃基础研究中的若干重要问题进行了思考,并展望了真菌及其漆酶系统在污染土壤修复应用中的发展方向。     

Human blood and environmental media screening method for pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyl compounds using liquid extraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis

Screening assessment methods have been developed for semi- and non-volatile persistent organic pollutants (POPs) for human blood and solid environmental media. The specific methodology is developed for measuring the presence of "native" compounds, specifically, a variety of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), organophosphate pesticides (OPPs), and for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The method is demonstrated on anonymous Red Cross blood samples as well as two potential environmental sources, tracked in soil and dog hair. This work is based on previously developed methods for semi-volatile hydrocarbon exposure from fuels usage and similarly employs liquid solvent extraction, evaporative volume reduction. and subsequent specialized gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis (GC-MS). Standard curves, estimates of recovery efficiency, and specific GC-MS SIM quantification methods were developed for common pesticides including diazinon. aldrin, chlorpyrifos, malathion, dieldrin, DDT, permethrin, cyhalothrin, and cypermethrin, and for seven selected PCBs. Trace levels of certain PCBs and pesticides such as permethrin, dieldrin, malathion, lindane, diazinon, and chlorpyrifos were tentatively identified in anonymous blood samples as well as in two potential environmental sources. tracked in soil and dog hair. The method provides a simple screening procedure for various media and a variety of common organic pollutants without extensive sample preparation. It is meant to complement and augment data from more specific or complex methodology, to provide initial broad spectrum guidance for designing targeted experiments, and to provide confirmatory evidence for the usual metabolic biomarker measurements made to assess human exposure.     

A Multimedia Assessment of the Environmental Fate of Bisphenol A

A comprehensive multimedia assessment of the environmental fate of bisphenol A (BPA) is presented. Components of the assessment include an evaluation of relevant partitioning and reactive properties, estimation of discharge quantities in the U.S. and the European Union (E.U.) resulting in conservative and realistic emission scenarios, and a review of monitoring data. Evaluative assessments of chemical fate using the Equilibrium Criterion (EQC) model are described from which it is concluded that the low volatility of BPA will result in negligible presence in the atmosphere. It is relatively rapidly degraded in the environment with half-lives in water and soil of about 4.5 days and less than 1 day in air, and with an overall half-life of 4.5 to 4.7 days, depending on the medium of release. The degradation rate in water is such that it may be transported some hundreds of kilometres in rivers, but long-range transport potential in air is negligible. Its low bioconcentration factor is consistent with rapid metabolism in fish (half-life less than 1 day). The estimated concentrations were generally consistent with the monitoring data, with the exception of sediment-water concentration ratios. Several hypotheses for the apparent nonequilibrium sediment-water partitioning are presented.     

Implications of Uncertainty and Variability in the Life Cycle Assessment of Pig Production Systems(7 pp)

Goal, Scope and Background Calculating LCA outcomes implies the use of parameters, models, choices and scenarios which introduce uncertainty, as they imperfectly account for the variability of both human and environmental systems. The analysis of the uncertainty of LCA results, and its reduction by an improved estimation of key parameters and through the improvement of the models used to convert emissions into regional impacts, such as eutrophication, are major issues for LCA. Methods In a case study of pig production systems, we propose a simple quantification of the uncertainty of LCA results (intra-system variability) and we explore the inter-system variability to produce more robust LCA outcomes. The quantification of the intra-system uncertainty takes into account the variability of the technical performance (crop yield, feed efficiency) and of emission factors (for NH3, N2O and NO3) and the influence of the functional unit (FU) (kg of pig versus hectare used). For farming systems, the inter-system variability is investigated through differentiating the production mode (conventional, quality label, organic (OA)), and the farmer practices (Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) versus Over Fertilised (OF)), while for natural systems, variability due to physical and climatic characteristics of catchments expected to modify nitrate fate is explored. Results and Conclusion For the eutrophication and climate change impact categories, the uncertainty associated with field emissions contributes more to the overall uncertainty than the uncertainty associated with emissions from livestock buildings, with crop yield and with feed efficiency. For acidification, the uncertainty of emissions from livestock buildings is the single most important contributor to the overall uncertainty. The influence of the FU on eutrophication results is very important when comparing systems with different degrees of intensification such as GAP and OA. Concerning the inter-system variability, differences in farmer practices have a larger effect on eutrophication than differences between production modes. Finally, the physical characteristics of the catchment and the climate strongly affect the results for eutrophication. In conclusion, in this case study, the main sources of uncertainty are in the estimation of emission factors, due both to the variability of environmental conditions and to lack of knowledge (emissions of N2O at the field level), but also in the model used for assessing regional impacts such as eutrophication. Recommendation and Perspective Suitable deterministic simulation models integrating the main controlling variables (environmental conditions, farmer practices, technology used) should be used to predict the emissions of a given system as well as their probabilistic distribution allowing the use of stochastic modelling. Finally, our simulations on eutrophication illustrate the necessity of integrating the fate of pollutants in models of impact assessment and highlight the important margin of improvement existing for the eutrophication impact assessment model.