Newts under siege: range expansion of Triturus pygmaeus isolates populations of its sister species

The newt species Triturus marmoratus and Triturus pygmaeus are both present in central Portugal where they have parapatric distributions. We used four genetic markers to determine which species was present in 31 populations. In the centre of the study area we found a T. marmoratus enclave. Despite small interpopulation distances, hybridization is locally rare. We built several models to try to explain this distribution using environmental data. The best model, chosen by Akaike's Information Criterion, relates the presence of T. marmoratus with the temperature in July, the relief of the landscape, and a higher use of the land for orchards. The current distribution can best be explained by T. pygmaeus expanding north and replacing T. marmoratus , the latter only persisting where ecological conditions are relatively favourable.     

Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli''s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species'' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.     

Potential impact of climate warming on the distribution of the Golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica, on the Iberian Peninsula

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is expected to impact the world's climate on a time-scale of just decades. We simulated the potential impact of climate warming on the range of the Iberian endemic Golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica, by extrapolating present-day GIS-based distribution models. The results indicated a significant decrease in the distribution of the species for 2050 and 2080, with losses ranging from 19 to 35% in Portugal and from 17 to 22% in Spain. The models also predict the fragmentation of the species range, in a pattern mirroring past distributions inferred from the spatial analysis of genetic data.     

Habitat shifts of endangered species under altered climate conditions: importance of biotic interactions

Predicting changes in potential habitat for endangered species as a result of global warming requires considering more than future climate conditions; it is also necessary to evaluate biotic associations. Most distribution models predicting species responses to climate change include climate variables and occasionally topographic and edaphic parameters, rarely are biotic interactions included. Here, we incorporate biotic interactions into niche models to predict suitable habitat for species under altered climates. We constructed and evaluated niche models for an endangered butterfly and a threatened bird species, both are habitat specialists restricted to semiarid shrublands of southern California. To incorporate their dependency on shrubs, we first developed climate‐based niche models for shrubland vegetation and individual shrub species. We also developed models for the butterfly's larval host plants. Outputs from these models were included in the environmental variable dataset used to create butterfly and bird niche models. For both animal species, abiotic–biotic models outperformed the climate‐only model, with climate‐only models over‐predicting suitable habitat under current climate conditions. We used the climate‐only and abiotic–biotic models to calculate amounts of suitable habitat under altered climates and to evaluate species' sensitivities to climate change. We varied temperature (+0.6, +1.7, and +2.8 °C) and precipitation (50%, 90%, 100%, 110%, and 150%) relative to current climate averages and within ranges predicted by global climate change models. Suitable habitat for each species was reduced at all levels of temperature increase. Both species were sensitive to precipitation changes, particularly increases. Under altered climates, including biotic variables reduced habitat by 68–100% relative to the climate‐only model. To design reserve systems conserving sensitive species under global warming, it is important to consider biotic interactions, particularly for habitat specialists and species with strong dependencies on other species.     

利用最大熵模型和规则集遗传算法模型预测孑遗植物裸果木的潜在地理分布及格局

利用野外调查的16个居群分布点和7个环境因子图层, 选择最大熵模型(MAXENT)和规则集遗传算法模型(GARP), 在地理和环境空间上模拟了第三纪孑遗植物裸果木(Gymnocarpos przewalskii)在中国西北地区的潜在分布。结果表明: (1)裸果木的潜在适生区全部集中在西北荒漠区, 其中最佳适生区主要集中在3个区域, 一是河西走廊中部和玉门以西、宁夏北部及内蒙古乌拉特后旗; 二是塔里木盆地西北缘; 三是柴达木盆地西北缘两片极小的高度适生区。裸果木的生态位被确定在一个较广的干旱环境空间: 适生区极端最高气温基本上在29.2-36.8 ℃之间, 极端最低气温在-18.3至-13.4 ℃之间; 年平均降水量40-200 mm; 潜在蒸发率在3-15之间。(2) MAXENT和GARP模型都较好地预测了裸果木的潜在分布, 但GARP产生了相对较大、较连续的潜在分布区, 部分过预测了破碎化生境; 而MAXENT预测到的潜在分布区, 在不同区域具有不同的环境适生性指数, 而且成功地排除了不合理的破碎化分布, 从而更直观地展示了裸果木的潜在分布格局和生态位要求。     

A new endemic species of Epipactis (Orchidaceae) from north-east Portugal

A new species, Epipactis duriensis Bernardos, D. Tyteca, Revuelta & Amich is described and illustrated from north-east Portugal. Notes on its distribution, ecology, karyology, micromorphology and taxonomic relationships are presented as well as molecular data based on ITS analysis. A list of diagnostic differences between E. duriensis and the closely related species E. lusitanica and E. tremolsii is provided.  © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2004, 145 , 239–249.     

Modelling seasonal changes in the distribution of Common Quail Coturnix coturnix in farmland landscapes using remote sensing

Species’ distribution models are widely used in landscape ecology but usually lack explicit information about species’ responses to ecosystem dynamics, leading to uncertainty when applied to the prediction of seasonal change in distributions. In this study, we aimed to build a species’ distribution model for the Common Quail Coturnix coturnix, a farmland species that shows changes in its distribution in response to seasonal changes in habitat suitability. During the course of three breeding seasons we collected temporal replicates of presence–absence data in 13 sampling locations in four countries (Morocco, Portugal, Spain and France). We used generalized linear mixed models to relate the species’ presence or absence to environmental variables and to the normalized difference vegetation index at each sampling location through the seasons, the latter variable being an indicator of within‐ and between‐season habitat changes. The preferred model showed that occurrence was highly dependent on habitat changes associated with crop seasonality, as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index. Common Quail selected areas with dense vegetation and warm climate and tracked spatial changes in these two parameters. The model allows accurate mapping of within‐ and between‐season distribution changes. Such changes are related to habitat variations caused mainly by drought and agricultural practices. Our results demonstrate that seasonal changes in farmland ecosystems can be incorporated into a simple distribution model, and our approach could be applied to other species to predict the effects of agricultural changes on the distribution of birds inhabiting farmland landscapes.     

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.     

Comparison of approaches to combine species distribution models based on different sets of predictors

Distribution models should take into account the different limiting factors that simultaneously influence species ranges. Species distribution models built with different explanatory variables can be combined into more comprehensive ones, but the resulting models should maximize complementarity and avoid redundancy. Our aim was to compare the different methods available for combining species distribution models. We modelled 19 threatened vertebrate species in mainland Spain, producing models according to three individual explanatory factors: spatial constraints, topography and climate, and human influence. We used five approaches for model combination: Bayesian inference, Akaike weight averaging, stepwise variable selection, updating, and fuzzy logic. We compared the performance of these approaches by assessing different aspects of their classification and discrimination capacity. We demonstrated that different approaches to model combination give rise to disparities in the model outputs. Bayesian integration was systematically affected by an error in the equations that are habitually used in distribution modelling. Akaike weights produced models that were driven by the best single factor and therefore failed at combining the models effectively. The updating and the stepwise approaches shared recalibration as the basic concept for model combination, were very similar in their performance, and showed the highest sensitivity and discrimination capacity. The fuzzy‐logic approach yielded models with the highest classification capacity according to Cohen's kappa. In conclusion: 1) Bayesian integration, employing the currently used equation, and the Akaike weight procedure should be avoided; 2) the updating and stepwise approaches can be considered minor variants of the same recalibrating approach; and 3) there is a trade‐off between this recalibrating approach, which has the highest sensitivity, and fuzzy logic, which has the highest overall classification capacity. Recalibration is better if unfavourable conditions in one environmental factor may be counterbalanced with favourable conditions in a different factor, otherwise fuzzy logic is better.     

Geographical and environmental factors affecting the distribution of wintering black storks Ciconia nigra in the Iberian Peninsula

Here we explore the environmental and geographical factors affecting the winter distribution of the black stork Ciconia nigra in the Iberian Peninsula, where an increasing number of individuals have remained to winter in the last two decades. We recorded 179 locations of 54 ringed individuals between 1988 and 2011 to map the species habitat suitability with MaxEnt, a machine‐learning technique based on the principle of maximum entropy. The migratory movements of 25 birds equipped with satellite transmitters were used to define the autumnal migratory flyway used by most storks crossing the Peninsula as well as to define the wintering period. The aim was to test if the number of wintering storks was positively correlated to habitat suitability and negatively correlated to the flyway distance. Data provided by an extensive count across Portugal and Spain during the 2012–2013 winter supported the findings that black storks were more abundant in areas of high habitat suitability close to the migratory flyway. This agrees with previous evidence on the role of migratory flyways in determining the distribution of some wintering birds in Iberia. A gap analysis reflected that just 12.3% of the suitable areas and 18.8% of individuals recorded during the 2012–2013 winter were included within the Special Protection Areas network of Portugal and Spain. Most of these birds were crowded in unprotected areas covered by rice fields (68% of individuals), a key habitat for the species.     

Predicting the distribution of shrub species in southern California from climate and terrain-derived variables

Abstract. Generalized additive, generalized linear, and classification tree models were developed to predict the distribution of 20 species of chaparral and coastal sage shrubs within the southwest ecoregion of California. Mapped explanatory variables included bioclimatic attributes related to primary environmental regimes: averages of annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and topographically-distributed potential solar insolation of the wettest quarter (winter) and of the growing season (spring). Also tested for significance were slope angle (related to soil depth) and the geographic coordinates of each observation. Models were parameterized and evaluated based on species presence/absence data from 906 plots surveyed on National Forest lands. Although all variables were significant in at least one of the species’ models, those models based only on the bioclimatic variables predicted species presence with 3–26% error. While error would undoubtedly be greater if the models were evaluated using independent data, results indicate that these models are useful for predictive mapping – for interpolating species distribution data within the ecoregion. All three methods produced models with similar accuracy for a given species; GAMs were useful for exploring the shape of the response functions, GLMs allowed those response functions to be parameterized and their significance tested, and classification trees, while some-times difficult to interpret, yielded the lowest prediction errors (lower by 3–5%).     

Patterns of acoustic variation in Cicada barbara Stål (Hemiptera, Cicadoidea) from the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco

Field recordings of the calling song and of an amplitude modulated signal produced by males of Cicada barbara from North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula were analysed in order to assess the geographical acoustic variation and the potential usefulness of acoustic data in the discrimination of subspecies and populations. Sound recordings were digitized and the frequency and temporal properties of the calls of each cicada were analysed. In all regions studied, peak frequency, quartiles 25, 50 and 75% and syllable rate showed low coefficients of variation suggesting inherent static properties. All frequency variables were correlated with the latitude, decreasing from south to north. In addition, most acoustic variables of the calling song showed significant differences between regions, and PCA and DFA analyses supported a partitioning within this species between Iberian Peninsula+Ceuta and Morocco, corroborating mtDNA data on the same species. Therefore, the subspecific division of C. barbara into C. barbara barbara from Morocco and C. barbara lusitanica from Portugal, Spain and Ceuta finds support from the present acoustic analyses, a result which is also reinforced by molecular markers.     

Distribution of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi, 1790) throughout the Iberian Peninsula based on a maximum entropy modelling approach

The Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) is a great production area of olives. The fruit production can be severely affected by the olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi, 1790) (Diptera). Detailed geographical distribution maps of key pests, such as B. oleae, are essential for their integrated management. Although different sources reporting the occurrence of B. oleae are available for sub-regions of Portugal and Spain, the data available are dispersed and centralisation of this information considering the Iberian Peninsula as a faunistic geographical unit is currently lacking. In this work, we built two distribution maps of B. oleae throughout the Iberian Peninsula, one based on occurrence sites and another based on its bioclimatic habitat suitability. After modelling the bioclimatic suitability of B. oleae using a maximum entropy model, three potential distribution areas beyond the previously known occurrence range of the olive fruit fly were identified corresponding to the autonomous community of Galicia (Spain), the Spanish and Portuguese sides of the International Douro Natural Park, and the autonomous community of Castilla y León (Spain). Interestingly, each region houses nowadays autochthonous olive cultivars. The drivers that most contributed to the model were the precipitation of the coldest quarter and the precipitation of driest month which agrees with the B. oleae bioecology. Although our approach is not fully-comprehensive in terms of occurrence sites, we show how a maxent modelling approach can be useful to identify potential risk areas of B. oleae occurrence throughout a target geographical extent such as the Iberian Peninsula.     

A Quaternary perspective on the conservation prospects of the Tertiary relict tree Prunus lusitanica L.

Aim  To assess the importance of climate and human pressure as factors limiting the past, present and future distribution of Prunus lusitanica L. (the Portuguese laurel), a relict of Europe's ancient subtropical laurel-forest flora.
Location  The Iberian Peninsula.
Methods  A census was taken of the current populations of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula and the threats they face. The potential distribution of the species was modelled under current climatic conditions and under simulations of the climate for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene and the year 2080.
Results  The present total population of 31,000 individuals is largely distributed as small, fragmented subpopulations, often threatened by agriculture or forestry. The species' current range is much smaller than its potentially suitable range. During the LGM, P. lusitanica would have been constrained to a limited number of sites along the Atlantic coast. In the mid-Holocene, its potential range was much wider than during the LGM and similar to that of the present day. Under the 2080 climate scenario its potential range is reduced by almost 40% compared to that of the present. This reduction includes the loss of territories currently home to three-quarters of its Iberian population.
Main conclusions  Drastic climatic changes and the existence of refugia are usually invoked to explain the rarity and fragmented distribution – yet persistence – of a subtropical flora in southern Europe. The availability of climatically suitable habitats is, however, not necessarily the main factor limiting its distribution. Human impact would appear to have been – and continues to be – of fundamental importance in the current population sizes and potential range of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula.     

Behavioural mechanisms that undermine species envelope models: the causes of patchiness in the distribution of great bustards Otis tarda in Spain

Despite the general success of species envelope models, capturing the fine-scale detail of patchiness in the distributions of some species is problematic. For great bustards in Spain, apparently suitable habitat patches remain unoccupied and cannot be distinguished from occupied patches in current distribution models. We consider philopatry and conspecific attraction as main behavioural mechanisms which could account for this patchiness, and then look for evidence of their influence on the distribution of great bustards across the whole of Spain. We compared the characteristics of habitat patches classed as suitable by a distribution model according to whether they were actually used or not. Occupied patches were larger than unoccupied patches and over-used in proportion to their size, suggesting aggregation and a metapopulation structure. Arguing that conspecific attraction may serve to transfer information about site history and environmental predictability (at least over a short time period), we compared the coefficients of variation in time-series of vegetation and climatic factors at occupied and unoccupied sites. Great bustards chose sites which were more environmentally stable at critical periods in the breeding cycle, "public information" that can only be gained from others rather than through sampling. There is thus evidence that both metapopulation dynamics and conspecific attraction influence the large scale distribution of great bustards in Spain. We discuss how alternative predictor variables and multi-stage analyses may help us to incorporate behavioural mechanisms into distribution models, but acknowledge that there are limits to the value of species envelope models for animal species making decisions.     

Species distribution models support the need of international cooperation towards successful management of plant invasions

To protect native biodiversity and habitats from the negative impacts of biological invasions, comprehensive studies and measures to anticipate invasions are required, especially across countries in a transfrontier context. Species distribution models (SDMs) can be particularly useful to integrate different types of data and predict the distribution of invasive species across borders, both for current conditions and under scenarios of future environmental changes. We used SDMs to test whether predicting invasions and potential spatial conflicts with protected areas in a transfrontier context, under current and future climatic conditions, would provide additional insights on the patterns and drivers of invasion when compared to models obtained from predictions for individual regions/countries (different modelling strategies). The framework was tested with the invasive alien plant Acacia dealbata in North of Portugal/NW Spain Euro-region, where the species is predicted to increase its distribution under future climatic conditions. While SDMs fitted in a transfrontier context and using “the national strategy (with Portugal calibration data) presented similar patterns, the distribution of the invasive species was higher in the former. The transfrontier strategy expectedly allowed to capture a more complete and accurate representation of the species’ niche. Predictions obtained in a transfrontier context are therefore more suitable to support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring impacts of biological invasions, while also providing additional support for international cooperation when tackling issues of global change. Our proposed framework provided useful information on the potential patterns of invasion by A. dealbata in a transfrontier context, with an emphasis on protected areas. This information is crucial for decision-makers focusing on the prevention of invasions by alien species inside protected areas in a transfrontier context, opening a new way for collaborative management of invasions.