Food availability and nest predation influence life history traits in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii

The effects of food availability and nest predation on several life history traits such as adult survival, dispersal, and reproductive performance were assessed in an Audouin's gull (Larus audouinii) colony during the period 1992–1997. The amounts of fish discarded from trawlers were used as a measure of food availability, and a trawling moratorium which partially overlapped with the breeding season of the gulls was taken into account. The effects of nest predation were assessed in 1994, when a terrestrial predator entered the colony and remained for the whole breeding season preying on both eggs and chicks. Using the moratorium and the predatory event as natural experiments, several hypotheses were tested: (a) food supply would affect breeding performance but not adult survival (independently of age and sex), since gulls are long-lived and adult survival is the most sensitive demographic parameter in their population dynamics; (b) the predator would trigger breeding dispersal (although gulls are mostly philopatric, they are known to abandon their natal colony after breeding failure instigated by events such as this). If breeding dispersal occurs, the rate is expected to be higher in females than in males, and higher in new breeders than in more experienced breeding birds, as is usually recorded in colonial seabirds. Probabilities of resighting and survival were estimated separately, using capture-recapture models. As expected, changes in food availability did not affect adult survival, whereas they influenced egg volume, clutch size, and breeding success. Local adult survival was estimated to be 0.908 (SD = 0.007) for males and females, and it did not change significantly with the age of individuals (range 3–8 years). The predator significantly decreased breeding success, and caused the dispersal of a number of adults probably to breed in another colony; this rate was estimated at an average of 0.10 (SD = 0.02). As expected, inexperienced breeders dispersed significantly more (14%) than more experienced breeders (8%) after the predator event, but dispersal was not sex biased. Recapture probabilities after the predator event suggest that birds that left the colony still had not returned. Results confirm that population dynamics of ground-nesting seabirds are sensitive to terrestrial predation, even when predation caused only a partial breeding failure. Received: 16 July 1998 / Accepted: 16 November 1998     

Population dynamics of Black-browed and Grey-headed Albatrosses Diomedea melanophrys and D. chrysostoma at Campbell Island, New Zealand, 1942–96

The numbers of Black-browed Albatrosses Diomedea melanophrys and Grey-headed Albatrosses D. chrysostoma at Campbell Island, New Zealand, have declined dramatically since the 1940s. Black-browed Albatross numbers went into a steep decline in the 1970s and, since at least 1984, have been increasing slightly at average rates of 1.1% and 2.1% per annum at two colonies. The long-term downward trend in numbers of the Grey-headed Albatross has continued into the 1990s, averaging annually between 3.0% and 4.8% per annum at different colonies. A demographic study carried out between 1984 and 1996 indicates that Black-browed and Grey-headed Albatrosses have similarly high annual adult survival rates (0.945 and 0.953, respectively). Black-browed Albatrosses breed for the first time at a younger average age than do Grey-headed Albatrosses (10 years and 13.5 years, respectively), have a higher average breeding success (0.663 compared with 0.397 for the latter species) and are annual breeders whereas Greyheaded Albatross show a typical biennial pattern of breeding. Both show low survival from fledging to first breeding; averaging 0.186 and 0.162 for Black-browed and Grey-headed Albatrosses, respectively. Both species are accidentally killed in the Japanese long-line fishery for tuna Thunnus sp. in the Australasian region. The steep decline of Black-browed Albatross numbers in the 1970s was concomitant with the development of this fishery in the foraging region of the Campbell Island birds. Currently, the slight increase in numbers is due to high adult survival rates and breeding success, and is coincident with a great reduction in long-line fishing. With stable and high adult survival rates, it is expected that future population trends will be mainly influenced by the recruitment rates. The continuous decline in Grey-headed Albatross numbers since the 1940s, before long-line fishing developed in this region, indicates that natural environmental processes contributed to the downward trend in breeding numbers. Modelling indicates that Grey-headed Albatross numbers will continue to decrease with the present demographic parameters. A comparison between the species breeding at different sites shows that differing environmental conditions influence demographic characteristics.     

The rise and fall of local populations of ortolan buntings Emberiza hortulana: importance of movements of adult males

Changes in population size of local populations of birds have usually been interpreted in relation to adult return rate and recruitment of young individuals after natal dispersal. Little is known about the importance of redistribution of adult individuals through breeding dispersal. The small Norwegian population of ortolan buntings Emberiza hortulana has a patchy distribution with about 30 long‐term local populations. During a period of general population decline (29% decrease over 7 years), the population trends of local populations (measured as number of males recorded) were highly variable, with some even increasing four‐fold. Comparisons of demographic parameters showed that adult immigration rate (i.e. dispersal of adult males) explained both yearly changes in male population size and population trends over the whole study period better than adult return rate or adult emigration rate, or a measure of recruitment of young males. Adult immigration rates and recruitment rates were correlated, suggesting that both young and adult males find the same places attractive. In the study area, adult sex ratio was strongly male‐biased, and immigration rate was higher when local sex ratio was less skewed. In addition, less skewed sex ratio was related to higher adult return rate and lower emigration rate. We found no relationships between measures of breeding success and population change. We suggest that conspecific attraction may explain the observed patterns. Some local populations may act as hot‐spots attracting adult males from other populations. Thus, local population changes need not reflect overall population growth rate, but may be a consequence of redistribution of adult birds.     

Characterising demographic contributions to observed population change in a declining migrant bird

Populations of Afro‐Palearctic migrant birds have shown severe declines in recent decades. To identify the causes of these declines, accurate measures of both demographic rates (seasonal productivity, apparent survival, immigration) and environmental parameters will allow conservation and research actions to be targeted effectively. We used detailed observations of marked breeding birds from a ‘stronghold’ population of whinchats Saxicola rubetra in England (stable against the declining European trend) to reveal both on‐site and external mechanisms that contribute to population change. From field data, a population model was developed based on demographic rates from 2011 to 2014. Observed population trends were compared to the predicted population trends to assess model‐accuracy and the influence of outside factors, such as immigration. The sensitivity of the projected population growth rate to relative change in each demographic rate was also explored. Against expectations of high productivity, we identified low seasonal breeding success due to nocturnal predation and low apparent first‐year survival, which led to a projected population growth rate (λ) of 0.818, indicating a declining trend. However, this trend was not reflected in the census counts, suggesting that high immigration was probably responsible for buffering against this decline. Elasticity analysis indicated λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival but with covariance between demographic rates accounted for, most temporal variation in λ was due to variation in productivity. Our study demonstrates that high quality breeding habitat can buffer against population decline but high immigration and low productivity will expose even such stronghold populations to potential decline or abandonment if either factor is unsustainable. First‐year survival also appeared low, however this result is potentially confounded by high natal dispersal. First‐year survival and/or dispersal remains a significant knowledge gap that potentially undermines local solutions aimed at counteracting low productivity.     

Population dynamics of the bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus in southern Africa

The essential features of mortality and survivorship of bearded vultures Gypaetus barbatus in southern Africa were deduced from age class plumage characteristics. The population consisted of about 204 adult pairs within a breeding range of about 35,000 sq km. Pairs bred every year and produced, on average, about 0·9 young per pair per year. Young birds made up about 37% of the population, subadults 3·5% and adults 60%. About 182 fledged young were recruited to the population each year. The proportion of young birds in the population in different areas was inversely related to the breeding density of adult birds (range 24–47%). Young bird mortality over the four years to subadult age was 87%, the survival rate of adults was 94% and the mean lifespan of birds surviving to adulthood was 21·4 years. This study demonstrates the need to understand the relationship between adult breeding density and young bird numbers in different parts of their range to accurately deduce population dynamics characteristics.     

Increasing trend in the number of Southern Rockhopper Penguins (Eudyptes c. chrysocome) breeding at the Falkland Islands

The Falkland Islands currently supports one of the largest Southern Rockhopper Penguin (Eudyptes c. chrysocome) populations. Archipelago-wide censuses conducted in 2000 and 2005 revealed that the number of breeding pairs had declined by 30 % during this period. To establish whether the breeding population continued to decline, an archipelago-wide census was conducted in 2010. We report a conservative estimate of 319,163 ±SD 24,820 pairs breeding at the Falkland Islands in 2010. This represents a 51 % increase when compared with the number counted in 2005. A simple stochastic population model was developed to investigate the extent to which changes in demographic parameters between 2005 and 2010 could account for the increase in breeding pairs. The population model predicted a 38 % increase in the number of breeding pairs over a 5-year period (289,431 ±SD 24,615). The increase in the number of breeding pairs was therefore probably attributed to improved vital rates in the period between the 2005 and 2010 archipelago-wide censuses in combination with other factors such as a reduction in the proportion of adult birds that abstained from breeding. Based on the 2010 Falkland Islands estimate, the global population of the subspecies E. c. chrysocome is now closer to 870,000 breeding pairs of which the Falkland Islands accounts for approximately 36 %, the second largest proportion after Chile. We conclude that despite fluctuations, the number of Southern Rockhopper Penguins breeding at the Falkland Islands has increased over the last 15 years and suggest that the ‘Vulnerable’ conservation status of the species be re-assessed.     

Rapid Sustainability Modeling for Raptors by Radiotagging and DNA-Fingerprinting

Abstract: Sustainable use of wildlife is crucial to ensuring persistence of natural resources. We used age-specific survival and breeding data to parameterize a demographic model for a harvested Kazakh saker falcon (Falco cherrug) population by radiotagging juveniles and estimating adult turnover with DNA-fingerprinting during 1993–1997. We gathered similar data during 1990–1998 to model populations of British buzzards (Buteo buteo), and during 1980–1998 to model populations of Swedish goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). Leg-bands and implanted microtransponders provided ways to test for bias and to estimate the harvest of sakers for falconry. Despite an estimated minimum first-year survival of only 23%, the observed productivity of 3.14 young per clutch would sustain a saker population (i.e., λ = 1) with a breeding rate (at laying) of only 0.63 for adults or with a residual juvenile yield of 37% if all adults breed. Higher first-year survival rates for goshawks and buzzards correlated with juvenile yields of up to 71%, but no more than half as many individuals if adults also were harvested. An annual population decline of 40% for sakers in southern Kazakhstan could be explained by observed productivity of only 0.71 young per clutch if there was also an estimated harvest of 55% of adults. This study shows that demographic models such as these can now be built rapidly if nestlings are fitted with reliable and safe radiotags and adult turnover is estimated from genetic analyses or other techniques.     

BREEDING NUMBERS AND REPRODUCTIVE RATE OF EIDERS AT THE SANDS OF FORVIE NATIONAL NATURE RESERVE, SCOTLAND

The total population of Eiders at the Sands of Forvie National Nature Reserve, Aberdeenshire, increased from about 3000 birds during 1961–63 to about 4800 birds in 1964–70. At the same time the estimated number of breeding pairs increased from about 1200 in 1961–63, to about 1800 in 1965–68 and to 2000 in 1970. The mean size of completed clutches was 4.4; the number of eggs in a clutch showed a significant decline during the season from an average of 4.7 to 3.4 in most years. The overall hatching success was 63%, but there was a decline with season as a result of increased losses to predators. In 1964 and 1969 laying was retarded, mean clutch-size reduced, and the number of birds attempting to lay dropped by half, due to inclement weather just at the onset of laying. In 1969 the eggs produced were smaller than in other years, and hatching success was lower. The female incubates without feeding, and is required to store sufficient energy, in the form of fat, to last her through the 26 days in addition to producing her clutch of eggs. An hypothesis is advanced which relates the feeding efficiency of the paired female immediately prior to laying to her egg production and incubating pattern, and which offers an explanation of the decline in clutch-size and hatching success evident during the season. In most years less than 5% of hatchlings survived to fledge; high survival was recorded in 1963, 1968 and 1970. Following the high production in 1963 the population increased in 1964 and the breeding stock in 1965 (females start to breed at two years old). The corresponding changes, following good breeding in 1968, were not so clearly detected because of unusually high adult mortality from oil pollution at the winter grounds in 1968 and the ‘late’ breeding year in 1969. The breeding stock in 1970, however, was higher than in any other year. This population continues to grow apparently as a result of its own reproductive output checked only by low productivity in most years and occasional high adult mortality.     

Steep past and future population decline in an arctic wader: dynamics and viability of Baltic Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii

Decline of migrant wader populations worldwide implies that their demography may be affected by phenomena occurring in a large geographical scale. Knowledge about vital rates affecting population growth and viability helps in finding the processes behind the declines. We estimated the rate of population growth (λ) of a dramatically declined population of Temminck's stints Calidris temminckii using a ten year capture–recapture data. We assessed the viability of the population by projections based on λ and its variation. We also studied sensitivity of λ to changes in vital rates (breeding success, recruitment and adult survival). Both adult and juvenile survival and breeding success were lower than c. 30 years earlier. Adult survival seemed to have dropped during the study period. Population growth appeared strongly negative and viability analyses predicted an almost certain extinction within a few decades. Adult survival formed the main component of the growth rate suggesting that population crash is mainly caused by a drop in adult survival. Still, sensitivity analyses showed that a moderate rise in adult survival or any other single vital rate would not make the population viable. Most probably, survival has dropped due to factors operating along migration routes and wintering areas, at sites shared by birds from other parts of the breeding range. Therefore, the observed population crash and decline in adult survival may indicate parallel changes in poorly monitored arctic populations. Migration habits (continental wide flyways and scattered wintering areas) imply that factors responsible for the drop in survival have a wide geographical range.     

A population founded by a single pair of individuals: establishment,expansion, and evolution

Events occurring at the founding of a population, and in the next few generations, are potentially of great importance for the future evolution of the population. This study reports demographic, genetic, and morphological changes that took place during and after the colonization of the small Galápagos island of Daphne Major by three male and two female large ground finches, Geospiza magnirostris, at the end of 1982. Using assignment tests with microsatellite DNA data we demonstrate heterogeneity among the immigrants. Their sources included both a near island (Santa Cruz) and a far island (Marchena). However, almost all immigrants that stayed to breed were from an intermediate island (Santiago) and its satellites. Song may have been responsible for this selectivity. Mean heterozygosity stayed roughly constant over the next 15 years while allelic diversity almost doubled, after an initial decline, as the breeding population increased to a maximum of 30 pairs. Although close inbreeding occurred, with a reduction in heterozygosity, an expected net decline in heterozygosity did not occur, for two reasons: it was counteracted by continuing gene flow from immigrants at a low rate, and inbred birds (in one cohort) were at a selective disadvantage. An abrupt step-function shift in beak shape occurred after 9 years. Thus the study provides evidence of drift and selection causing morphological and genetic divergence in the establishment of a new population and in the first few generations.     

Selection for synchronous breeding in the European starling

Colonial birds often demonstrate considerable breeding synchrony. In southern Sweden the semi-colonial European starling initiated the vast majority of clutches within one week. Laying dates were positively skewed so that many birds initiated clutches at similar dates early in the season. Breeding was further synchronised by a particularly strong clutch-size reduction equivalent to one third of an egg per day during the first part of the breeding season. The decline in clutch size with season also held true for separate age-classes of females, for individual females laying at different times at different years and for individual females laying at different times the same year. Trends in breeding success during nestling rearing were unlikely to explain the high degree of breeding synchrony or the seasonal decline in clutch size; nestling survival and growth were weakly related or unrelated to reproductive timing. In contrast recruitment success of fledged offspring declined sharply with season. Even within the synchronous laying period, defined as clutches initiated during the first week each year, local recruitment success declined. It is suggested that the early seasonal decline is caused by selection for synchronous fledging permitting the immediate formation of flocks after fledging, whereas the late seasonal trends may be caused by either population differences in female quality or deteriorating conditions for raising young.     

Managing hunted populations through sex-specific season lengths: a case of the Common Eider in the Baltic-Wadden Sea flyway population

Management of harvested wildlife populations aims to protect species from overexploitation and ultimately extinction, by regulating exploitation towards achievable sustainable levels. However, assessments of impact and sustainability of implemented management actions on a population level are scarce. This study assesses effects of changes in hunting season length imposed on the Baltic-Wadden Sea Common Eider Somateria mollissima population, including differential restriction on hunting of the sexes. The potential impact of these changes on the population was assessed by simple demographic matrix projections. Since the early 1990s, this population has declined at ca. 6.3 % per annum, and the male/female ratio among shot birds has fallen from 3:2 to about 3:1. Concerns in Denmark regarding the conservation status and sustainability of contemporary levels of exploitation resulted in shortening the open season by 44 and 46 days for females and 13 and 15 days for males from the hunting seasons 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 onwards, respectively. These reduced the kill of adult females by 82 %, adult males by 31 %, juvenile females by 58 % and juvenile males by 55 %. The observed reduction in the kill of adult females following both changes in 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 matched the expected changes based on the seasonal distribution of sexes in the bag prior to the change. Post 2004/2005 hunters killed more adult males, but shot markedly fewer juvenile birds than expected. Demographic modelling of the female population showed that the effects of the reduced hunting would correspond to an increase in the annual population growth rate from the previous ?6.3 to ?3.6 % (post 2004) and ?1.6 % (post 2011). The model also predicted that a full ban on hunting female eiders (adults and juveniles) would lead to a positive population growth rate of 0.7 %. Taking into account the conservative model estimates and natural variations in annual breeding success, the implemented changes in sex-specific regulation of hunting may potentially be an effective management tool to halt the decline of the Baltic-Wadden Sea eider population, potentially rendering such levels of hunting sustainable under prevailing conditions.     

Demographic Consequences of Poison-Related Mortality in a Threatened Bird of Prey

Evidence for decline or threat of wild populations typically comes from multiple sources and methods that allow optimal integration of the available information, representing a major advance in planning management actions. We used integrated population modelling and perturbation analyses to assess the demographic consequences of the illegal use of poison for an insular population of Red Kites, Milvus milvus. We first pooled into a single statistical framework the annual census of breeding pairs, the available individual-based data, the average productivity and the number of birds admitted annually to the local rehabilitation centre. By combining these four types of information we were able to increase estimate precision and to obtain an estimate of the proportion of breeding adults, an important parameter that was not directly measured in the field and that is often difficult to assess. Subsequently, we used perturbation analyses to measure the expected change in the population growth rate due to a change in poison-related mortality. We found that poison accounted for 0.43 to 0.76 of the total mortality, for yearlings and older birds, respectively. Results from the deterministic population model indicated that this mortality suppressed the population growth rate by 20%. Despite this, the population was estimated to increase, albeit slowly. This positive trend was likely maintained by a very high productivity (1.83 fledglings per breeding pair) possibly promoted by supplementary feeding, a situation which is likely to be common to many large obligate or facultative European scavengers. Under this hypothetical scenario of double societal costs (poisoning of a threatened species and feeding programs), increasing poison control would help to lower the public cost of maintaining supplementary feeding stations.     

Favoring recruitment as a conservation strategy to improve the resilience of long‐lived reptile populations: Insights from a population viability analysis

In long‐lived species, although adult survival typically has the highest elasticity, temporal variations in less canalized demographic parameters are the main drivers of population dynamics. Targeting recruitment rates may thus be the most effective strategy to manage these species. We analyzed 1,136 capture–recapture histories collected over 9 years in an isolated population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, using a robust design Pradel model to estimate adult survival and recruitment rates. From an adult population size estimated at 928 in 2013, we found a yearly decline of 4% over the 8‐year period. As expected under the canalization hypothesis for a long‐lived species, adult survival was high and constant, with little possibility for improvement, whereas the recruitment rate varied over time and likely drove the observed population decline. We then used a prospective perturbation analysis to explore whether managing the species’ immature cohorts would at least slow the population decline. The prospective perturbation analysis suggested that a significant and sustained conservation effort would be needed to achieve a recruitment rate high enough to slow the population decline. We posit that the high recruitment rate achieved in 2014—likely due to the maintenance in 2012 of the main nesting sites used by this population—would be sufficient to slow this population''s decline if it was sustained each year. Based on the results of diverse pilot studies we conducted, we identified the most likely threats targeting the eggs and immature cohorts, stressing the need to improve reproductive success and survival of immature iguanas. The threats we identified are also involved in the decline of several reptile species, and species from other taxa such as ground‐nesting birds. These findings on a little‐studied taxon provide further evidence that focusing on the immature life stages of long‐lived species can be key to their conservation.     

Macrogeographic variation in the call of the corncrake Crex crex

This study was conducted to characterise macrogeographic variation in the vocalisation of the corncrake Crex crex, a bird species with a non‐learned and highly stereotyped call. We also examined: 1) whether call characteristics remained stable across successive breeding seasons within two of the study populations and 2) whether call similarity was related to distance between populations. Recordings of 352 males from eight populations were analysed. The analyses focused on variation in 1) temporal characteristics (duration of syllables and intervals, duration of the intervals between consecutive maximal amplitude peaks within syllables, called pulse‐to‐pulse duration (PPD)), and 2) spectral characteristics (minimal and maximal frequency, frequencies below which 25%, 50% and 75% acoustic energy of signal is distributed). We found significant differences in most of the temporal and all of the spectral characteristics between populations. No differences were found in PPD. Significant interannual differences in spectral characteristics were found in both of the populations examined, whereas differences in temporal characteristics were only observed in one population. In general, geographic variation in calls showed clinal distance‐dependence, where distant populations showed larger differences in call than neighbouring populations. Our results show that geographic variation in corncrake calls may be very dynamic in the short term and that within‐population variation may occur on the same scale as between‐population variation. This finding is surprising because call characteristics in non‐learners are essentially inherited, and genetic transmission should be very slow. We suggest that the social interactions between males and/or the specific dispersal patterns of this species and the low site fidelity of adult and young birds may be responsible for such pattern.     

Reduced adult survival and increased reproduction in Swedish kestrels

Summary The decline of the Swedish kestrel population during the 1950s and 1960s is probably caused by a decrease in yearly adult survival rate, from 0.66±0.03 S.E. to 0.48±0.03 S.E.Contrary to what would be expected from generally harmful effects of pesticides on reproduction, brood size increased from 3.4±0.4 S.E. to 4.2±0.2 S.E. during the same period.We found no relationship between brood size and breeding density. The increased reproduction therefore does not seem to be a density-dependent effect of reduced population size. The increase in brood size may rather be an evolved adaptation, selected for by increased optimal reproduction as a consequence of higher adult mortality.     

The decline of the Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata in the UK: an integrated population model

The Spotted Flycatcher has become a species of great conservation concern in Europe and the UK following a period of prolonged and accelerating decline. We consider a range of population models for UK census data between 1965 and 1996, along with independent survey data designed to estimate demographic parameters. Population declines are similar in the major habitats and regions of the UK, indicating that a broad-scale factor has influenced the population. Nest record data show that changes in individual nest success are not the cause of the increasing decline. This is more likely the result of a fall in the survival rates of fledged birds prior to the next breeding season; we show by comparison with the recoveries of ringed birds that the most likely cause is an increased mortality rate of birds either shortly after fledging or within the subsequent first year of life.     

Population and Harvest Dynamics of Midcontinent Sandhill Cranes

Sandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis) inhabiting the midcontinent of North America have been hunted since the 1960s under management goals of maintaining abundance, retaining geographic distribution, and maximizing sustainable harvest. Some biologists have raised concerns regarding harvest sustainability because sandhill cranes have lower reproductive rates than other game birds. We summarized demographic information in an age-structured matrix model to better understand population dynamics and harvest. Population indices and recovered harvest since the early 1980s suggest midcontinent sandhill cranes have experienced an average long-term annual growth of 0.9%; meanwhile, harvest has increased 1.8% annually. Adult survival and recruitment rates estimated from field data required modest adjustments (1–3%) so that model-derived growth rates matched growth estimated from a long-term survey (0.887 adult survival and 0.199 females/breeding female). Considering 0.9% long-term annual growth, sandhill cranes could be harvested at a rate of 6.6% if harvest was additive to natural mortality (assumed to be 0.05) or 11.3% if harvest mortality compensated for natural mortality. Life-history characteristics for long-lived organisms and demographic evidence suggested that hunter harvest was primarily additive. Differential harvest rates of segments of sandhill cranes in the midcontinent population derived from differential exposure to hunting suggested potentially unsustainable harvest for greater sandhill cranes (A. c. tabida) from 2 breeding segments. Overall, demographic evidence suggests that the harvest of sandhill cranes in the midcontinent population has been managed sustainably. Monitoring activities that reduce nuisance variation and estimate vital and harvest rates by subspecies would support continued management of sandhill cranes that are of interest to hunters and bird watchers. Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Seasonal roosts of Red-lored Amazons in Ecuador provide information about population size and structure

ABSTRACT.   Data from roosts of Amazona parrots may be useful in creating demographic models, because these birds exhibit high roost fidelity and pairs are conspicuous in flight. However, few investigators have attempted to track changes in the number of pairs using such roosts. We studied Red-lored Amazons ( Amazona autumnalis ) at a communal roost in southwest Ecuador over a 1-yr period to understand better their population structure. Population size was estimated at 214 individuals. Counts revealed seasonal variation in numbers, but the occurrence of pairs and singles was seldom correlated. The number of paired individuals using the roost was lower during the breeding period. In contrast, the number of single birds at the roost nearly doubled during the breeding period. Overall, our data suggest that parental responsibilities during the nesting period explain fluctuations in the number of birds at the roost, and such fluctuations can be used to estimate the reproductive portion of the population. Protection of the small mangrove islands where the parrots roost would likely benefit a population that occupies a much larger area and would, at the same time, provide a useful tool for demographic studies of this poorly known neotropical parrot.     

Diagnosing Mechanisms of Decline and Planning for Recovery of an Endangered Brown Bear (Ursus arctos) Population

Background

The usual paradigm for translocations is that they should not take place in declining populations until the causes(s) of the decline has been reversed. This approach sounds intuitive, but may not apply in cases where population decline is caused by behavioral or demographic mechanisms that could only be reversed by translocation itself.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed a decade of field data for Pyrenean brown bears (Ursus arctos) from two small populations: the growing Central population - created from a previous translocation and the endemic Western population - believed to be declining because of excessive human-caused mortality. We found that adult survival rates for both populations were as high as those observed for most other protected brown bear populations. However, the Western population had much lower reproductive success than the Central population. Adult breeding sex ratio was male-biased in the Western population and female-biased in the Central population. Our results exclude high anthropogenic mortality as a cause for population decline in the West but support low reproductive success, which could result from sexually selected infanticide induced by a male-biased adult sex ratio or inbreeding depression. Using a stochastic demographic model to compute how many bears should be released to ensure viability, we show that the Western population could recover provided adequate numbers of new females are translocated.

Conclusions/Significance

We suggest that a translocation could take place, even if the decline has not yet been reversed, if the translocation itself removes the biological mechanisms behind the decline. In our case, the ultimate cause of low reproductive success remained unknown (infanticide or inbreeding), but our proposed translocation strategies should eliminate the proximate cause (low reproductive success) of the decline and ensure population recovery and viability.