Integrating species distribution modelling into decision-making to inform conservation actions

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely tagged as valuable tools in a variety of conservation assessments to address pressing conservation problems. However, these solutions could be hampered by difficulties to overcome the knowledge-action boundary between conservation and modelling practice. These difficulties have been well typified in the ecological modelling sphere, but a specific conceptual framework on how to bridge this gap is still lacking. This work reports successful examples on how to use SDMs to identify the most favourable habitats for implementing conservation management actions. We use these examples to discuss about the three main topics that deserve special attention to help enhance information flow between practitioners and modellers: the decision context, the modelling framework and the spatial products. Finally, we suggest some practical solutions to improve applications of effective conservation action on the ground. We emphasize the importance of matching modelling goals and decision targets by a close collaboration of modellers with decision makers and species experts. Moreover, we highlight the key role of clear and useful spatial products to provide relevant and timely feedback to increase understanding and promote utilisation by conservation practitioners, and to inform and involve targeted audiences.     

Testing the use of specimen collection data and GIS in biodiversity exploration and conservation decision making in Guyana

This paper presents the results of a study conducted at the request of the Government of Guyana by the Centre for the Study of Biological Diversity at the University of Guyana, and the Smithsonian Institution. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the utility of using systematic collections in identifying areas with a high priority for conservation. A biodiversity database and a gazetteer were assembled and interpreted primarily through the use of maps generated in ARC/INFO and ArcView. The data were examined to determine coverage and completeness, and while in general the results support a continued use of the methodology for making informed decisions in conservation related issues, several recommendations are offered in order to enhance the data. The primary use of the results of this study is in the identification of areas of interest for conservation and in the location of eleven areas covering most ecoregions in Guyana that are in need of additional study. The eleven areas have been chosen to avoid areas that are already allocated to logging and mining concessions or Amerindian lands. While it is true that this study would benefit from additional data and further analysis of those data, it is also true that decisions concerning areas for conservation in Guyana are being made in the near future, and if any data are to be used in this process, it will be those data presented in this paper.     

New species and distribution records of Clavulina (Cantharellales, Basidiomycota) from the Guiana Shield

Two new species of Clavulina Schroet. (Clavulinaceae, Cantharellales, Basidiomycota) and new distribution records for Clavulina amazonensis Corner and Clavulina sprucei (Berk.) Corner are described from the Pakaraima Mountains of Guyana, in the central Guiana Shield region. These fungi occur in rainforests dominated by ectomycorrhizal (ECM) trees of the leguminous genus Dicymbe (Fabaceae subfam. Caesalpinioideae). Macromorphological, micromorphological and habitat data are provided for each species. Nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences of the internal transcribed spacer region and 28S subunit were obtained for new species and from representative collections of C. amazonensis and C. sprucei. The two new species, Clavulina kunmudlutsa sp. nov. and Clavulina tepurumenga sp. nov., constitute important edible fungi for the Patamona Amerindians. Our specimens of C. sprucei represent the first reports of the species since 1853 as well as a range extension of nearly 1500 km, while sequence data from basidiomata as well as ECM roots suggest that this taxon consists of a cryptic species complex.     

Climate change, connectivity and conservation decision making: back to basics

1.  The challenge of climate change forces us to re-examine the assumptions underlying conservation planning.
2.  Increasing 'connectivity' has emerged as the most favoured option for conservation in the face of climate change.
3.  We argue that the importance of connectivity is being overemphasized: quantifying the benefits of connectivity per se is plagued with uncertainty, and connectivity can be co-incidentally improved by targeting more concrete metrics: habitat area and habitat quality.
4.   Synthesis and applications . Before investing in connectivity projects, conservation practitioners should analyse the benefits expected to arise from increasing connectivity and compare them with alternative investments, to ensure as much biodiversity conservation and resilience to climate change as possible within their budget. Strategies that we expect to remain robust in the face of climate change include maintaining and increasing the area of high quality habitats, prioritizing areas that have high environmental heterogeneity and controlling other anthropogenic threatening processes.     

Malaria on the Guiana Shield: a review of the situation in French Guiana

In a climate of growing concern that Plasmodium falciparum may be developing a drug resistance to artemisinin derivatives in the Guiana Shield, this review details our current knowledge of malaria and control strategy in one part of the Shield, French Guiana. Local epidemiology, test-treat-track strategy, the state of parasite drug resistance and vector control measures are summarised. Current issues in terms of mobile populations and legislative limitations are also discussed.     

New species and distribution records for Clavulina (Cantharellales,Basidiomycota) from the Guiana Shield,with a key to the lowland neotropical taxa

Three new and one previously described species of Clavulina (Clavulinaceae, Cantharellales, Basidiomycota) are reported from the central Guiana Shield region from tropical rainforests dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees of the leguminous genus Dicymbe (Fabaceae subfam. Caesalpinioideae). We provide morphological, DNA sequence, habitat, and fruiting occurrence data for each species. The new species conform to a generic concept of Clavulina that includes coralloid, branched basidiomata with amphigenous hymenia, basidia with two or 2−4 incurved sterigmata and postpartal septa present or absent, and smooth, hyaline, guttulate basidiospores. Placements of the new species in Clavulina were corroborated with DNA sequence data from the internal transcribed spacer and large subunit of the nuclear ribosomal repeat, and their infrageneric relationships were examined with phylogenetic analyses based on DNA from the region coding for the second largest subunit of DNA-dependent RNA polymerase II (rpb2). To facilitate future studies of the genus in the neotropics, a key is provided for all Clavulina species described from the lowland neotropics.     

Landscape scale conservation: resources, behaviour, the matrix and opportunities

Landscape scale conservation efforts are becoming more commonplace in conservation, with a move from single species to multi-species initiatives. These initiatives are reliant on modelling processes, largely underpinned by metapopulation models. We argue that generic models developed for individual species in particular landscapes over selected time periods may only be applicable to alternative landscapes and time periods in restricted circumstances. Variability in species responses to landscapes and environmental conditions is dependent on a range of species-specific intrinsic characteristics, dependent on their responses to resources, (including weather) and also individual states. We propose that the behavioural component of how species respond to resources needs to be taken into account in modelling species responses to landscape, and therefore how limited resources for conservation are deployed. Species behaviours are inherently complex. We argue that because of this complexity the conservation of the majority of species, especially of the least rare, may be best served if conservation effort is additionally focused on increasing landscape heterogeneity and disturbance. This may also facilitate persistence in the face of climate change. We suggest that heterogeneity should be promoted through agri-environment schemes.     

New species of Clavulina (Cantharellales, Basidiomycota) with resupinate and effused basidiomata from the Guiana Shield

Three new species of Clavulina (Cantharellales, Basidiomycota) are described from rainforests dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees of the leguminous genus Dicymbe (Fabaceae subfam. Caesalpinioideae) from the central Guiana Shield. Species of Clavulina typically form branched, coralloid basidiomata with amphigenous hymenia. However, the three species described here form resupinate or effuso-coralloid basidiomata, macromorphological forms previously unknown in Clavulina. Macromorphological, micromorphological, habitat and DNA sequence data are provided for each new species. Micromorphological features and DNA sequence data from the second largest subunit of DNA-dependant RNA polymerase II (rpb2) and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and large subunit (28S) of the ribosomal repeat justify placement of these new species in Clavulina. Comparisons with described Clavulina species and other resupinate taxa within the Cantharellales are provided.     

Spatial conservation planning under climate change: Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan

Protected areas are the basis of modern conservation systems, but current climate change causes gaps between protected areas and the species distribution ranges. To mitigate the impact of climate change on species distribution ranges, revision of protected areas are necessary. Alternatively, active management such as excluding competitive species or transplanting target species would be effective. In this study, we assessed optimal actions (revision of protected areas or active management) in each geographical region to establish an effective spatial conservation plan in Japan. Gaps between the protected areas and future potential habitats were assessed using species distribution models and 20 future climate simulations. Fagus crenata, an endemic and dominant species in Japan, was used as a target species. Potential habitats within the protected areas were predicted to decrease from 22,122 km² at present to 12,309 km² under future climate conditions. Sustainable potential habitats (consistent potential habitats both at present and in future) without the protected areas extended to 13,208 km², and were mainly found in northeast Japan. These results suggest that, in northeast Japan, revisions to protected areas would be effective in preserving sustainable potential habitats under future climate change. However, the potential habitats of southwestern Japan, in which populations were genetically different from northeastern populations, were predicted to virtually disappear both within and outside of protected areas. Active management is thus necessary in southwestern Japan to ensure intraspecific genetic diversity under future climate change.     

Landscape and farm scale management to enhance biodiversity conservation in the cocoa producing region of southern Bahia, Brazil

In southern Bahia, Brazil, large land areas are used for the production of cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which is predominantly grown under the shade of native trees in an agroforestry system locally known as cabruca. As a dominant forest-like landscape element of the cocoa region, the cabrucas play an important role in the conservation of the region’s biodiversity. The purpose of this review is to provide the scientific basis for an action plan to reconcile cocoa production and biodiversity conservation in southern Bahia. The available research collectively highlights the diversity of responses of different species and biological groups to both the habitat quality of the cabrucas themselves and to the general characteristics of the landscape, such as the relative extent and spatial configuration of different vegetation types within the landscape mosaic. We identify factors that influence directly or indirectly the occurrence of native species in the cabrucas and the wider landscape of the cocoa region and develop recommendations for their conservation management. We show that the current scientific knowledge already provides a good basis for a biodiversity friendly management of the cocoa region of southern Bahia, although more work is needed to refine some management recommendations, especially on shade canopy composition and density, and verify their economic viability. The implementation of our recommendations should be accompanied by appropriate biological and socioeconomic monitoring and the findings should inform a broad program of adaptive management of the cabrucas and the wider cocoa landscape.     

Using species distribution and occupancy modeling to guide survey efforts and assess species status

Habitat loss and fragmentation continue to be major issues affecting the persistence and conservation of species, but identification of critical habitat remains a challenge. Species distribution modeling and occupancy modeling are both approaches that have been used to predict species distributions and can identify critical habitat characteristics associated with species occurrence. Additionally, occupancy sampling can provide measures of detectability, increasing the confidence that a species is truly absent when not detected. While increasingly popular, these methods are infrequently used in synergy, and rarely at fine spatial scales. We provide a case study of using distribution and occupancy modeling in unison to direct survey efforts, provide estimates of species presence/absence, and to identify local and landscape features important for species occurrence. The focal species for our study was Ambystoma jeffersonianum, a threatened salamander in the state of Illinois, U.S.A. We found that fine-scale distribution models accurately discriminated occupied from unoccupied breeding ponds (78–91% accuracy), and surveys could be effectively guided using a well-fit model. We achieved a high detection rate (0.774) through occupancy sampling, and determined that A. jeffersonianum never used ponds inhabited by fish, and the probability of a pond being used for breeding increased as canopy cover increased. When faced with limited resources, combining fine-scale distribution modeling with a robust occupancy sampling design can expedite survey efforts, confidently designate species occupancy status, prioritise habitat for future surveys and/or restoration, and identify critical habitat features. This approach is broadly applicable to other taxa that have specific habitat requirements.     

Using species distribution modeling to set management priorities for mammals in northern Thailand

Rapid deforestation has occurred in northern Thailand and is expected to continue. Thus, identification and protection of sufficient amounts of the highest quality habitat is urgent. Wildlife occurrence data were gathered along wildlife trails and patrolling routes in protected areas and forest patches outside of protected areas. Geographic Information Systems, bio-physical and anthropogenic variables were used to generate suitable habitats for 17 mammal species using maximum entropy theory (MAXENT). Suitable habitats for all species were aggregated, and used to set priorities for wildlife conservation in northern Thailand. In addition, predicted deforestation was overlaid on moderate and high priority areas to determine future wildlife threats and aid decision-making concerning which areas to protect. The results revealed that the total extent of suitable habitats for the studied species covers approximately 37% of the region. Nearly 70% of the total habitat for endangered and vulnerable species is predicted in large and contiguous protected areas. Threatened areas with high biodiversity encompass approximately 1.9% of the region, and 66% of this figure is predicted to occur in existing protected areas. Based on the model outcomes, we recommend reducing human pressures, enhancing the density of prey species and conservation outside protected areas, as well as increasing connectivity of suitable habitats among protected areas that are too small to maintain viable populations in isolation.     

Plant species distribution across two contrasting treeline ecotones in the Spanish Pyrenees

We describe the structure of two contrasting (elevation, topography,climate, vegetation, soil) alpine forest–pasture ecotones located in theCentral Pyrenees (sites Ordesa, O, and Tessó, T). We define ecotonestructure as the spatial distribution of trees of different size classes andgrowth-forms and the relationship between these aspects and the spatialdistribution of understory vegetation and substrate. The studied ecotones aredominated by Pinus uncinata Ram. and have been littleaffected by anthropogenic disturbances (logging, grazing) during this century.One rectangular plot (30 × 140 m) was located within eachsite with its longest side parallel to the slope and encompassing treeline andtimberline. The distribution of size and growth-form classes at site O followeda clear sequence of increasing size downslope from shrubby multistemmedkrummholz individuals to bigger arborescent trees. At site O, regeneration wasconcentrated near the krummholz area and over rocky substrates. This suggeststhat krummholz may modify microenvironment conditions and increase seedlingsurvival. At site T, regeneration was abundant above the treeline where thecover of the dominant understory shrub (Rhododendronferrugineum) decreased. In both ecotones the diversity of plants washigher above the treeline than in the forest and decreased going downslopecoinciding with the increase of P. uncinata cover. Thereduction of plant diversity appeared above the current timberline. At site O,the decrease was steep and spatially heterogeneous what may be due in part tothe edaphic heterogeneity. At site T the change was abrupt though smaller. Therelationships between the plant community and tree regeneration should be takeninto account in future ecological studies of treeline pattern.     

Involving the motor system in decision making

The control of behaviour is usually understood in terms of three distinct components: sensory processing, decision making and movement control. Recently, this view has been questioned on the basis of physiological and behavioural data, blurring the distinction between these three stages. This raises the question to what extent the motor system itself can contribute to the interpretation of behavioural situations. To investigate this question we use a neural model of sensory motor integration applied to a behaving mobile robot performing a navigation task. We show that the population response of the motor system provides a substrate for the categorization of behavioural situations. This categorization allows for the assessment of the complexity of a behavioural situation and regulates whether higher-level decision making is required to resolve behavioural conflicts. Our model lends credence to an emerging reconceptualization of behavioural control where the motor system can be considered as part of a high-level perceptual system.     

Applying voting rules to panel-based decision making in LCA

Background, aim, and scope  Cross-category weighting is one possible way to facilitate internal decision making when dealing with ambiguous impact assessment results, with simple additive weighting being a commonly used method. Yet, the question as to whether the methods applied today can, in fact, identify the most “environmentally friendly” alternative from a group perspective remains unanswered. The aim of this paper is to propose a new method for group decision making that ensures the effective identification of the most preferable alternative. Materials and methods  Common approaches to deduce a single set of weighting factors for application in a group decision situation (e.g., arithmetic mean, consensus) are discussed based on simple mathematics, empirical data, and thought experiments. After proposing an extended definition for “effectiveness” in group decision making, the paper recommends the use of social choice theory whose main focus is to identify the most preferable alternative based on individuals’ rankings of alternatives. The procedure is further supplemented by a Monte Carlo analysis to facilitate the assessment of the result’s robustness. Results  The general feasibility of the method is demonstrated. It generates a complete ranking of alternatives, which does not contain cardinal single scores. In terms of effectiveness, the mathematical structure of the procedure ensures the eligibility for compromise of the group decision proposal. The sensitivity analysis supports the decision makers in understanding the robustness of the proposed group ranking. Discussion  The method is based upon an extended definition of effectiveness which acknowledges the eligibility for compromise as the core requirement in group decision contexts. It is shown that multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) methods in use in life cycle assessment (LCA) today do not necessarily meet this requirement because of their mathematical structure. Further research should focus on empirical proof that the generated group results are indeed more eligible for compromise than results generated by current methods that utilize an averaged group weighting set. This is closely related to the question considering under which mathematical constraints it is even possible to generate an essentially different result. Conclusions  The paper describes a new multi-attribute group decision support system (MGDSS) for the identification of the most preferable alternative(s) for use in panel-based LCA studies. The main novelty is that it refrains from deducing a single set of weighting factors which is supposed to represent the panel as a whole. Instead, it applies voting rules that stem from social choice theory. Because of its mathematical structure, the procedure is deemed superior to common approaches in terms of its effectiveness. Recommendations and perspectives  The described method may be recommended for use in internal, panel-based LCA studies. In addition, the basic approach of the method—the combination of MADM methods with social choice theory—can be recommended for use in all those situations where multi-attribute decisions are to be made in a group context.     

MAPPIN'SDM--the multifocal approach to sharing in shared decision making

Background

The wide scale permeation of health care by the shared decision making concept (SDM) reflects its relevance and advanced stage of development. An increasing number of studies evaluating the efficacy of SDM use instruments based on various sub-constructs administered from different viewpoints. However, as the concept has never been captured in operable core definition it is quite difficult to link these parts of evidence.This study aims at investigating interrelations of SDM indicators administered from different perspectives.

Method

A comprehensive inventory was developed mapping judgements from different perspectives (observer, doctor, patient) and constructs (behavior, perception) referring to three units (doctor, patient, doctor-patient-dyad) and an identical set of SDM-indicators. The inventory adopted the existing approaches, but added additional observer foci (patient and doctor-patient-dyad) and relevant indicators hitherto neglected by existing instruments. The complete inventory comprising a doctor-patient-questionnaire and an observer-instrument was applied to 40 decision consultations from 10 physicians from different medical fields. Convergent validities were calculated on the basis of Pearson correlation coefficients.

Results

Reliabilities for all scales were high to excellent. No correlations were found between observer and patients or physicians neither for means nor for single items. Judgements of doctors and patients were moderately related. Correlations between the observer scales and within the subjective perspectives were high. Inter-perspective agreement was not related to SDM performance or patient activity.

Conclusion

The study demonstrates the contribution to involvement made by each of the relevant perspectives and emphasizes the need for an inter-subjective approach regarding SDM measurement.