An estimate of the magnitude of random errors in the DS86 dosimetry from data on chromosome aberrations and severe epilation

An analysis of the proportion of cells with chromosome aberrations in cultured blood lymphocytes from A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveals that the dose-response relationship using DS86 assigned dose is significantly steeper in the subsample of individuals who reported severe epilation after the bombings than in those who did not report severe epilation. This effect is due either to random errors in the DS86 dose assignments or to individual differences in sensitivity to radiation, or to both. In this paper, working within a class of dosimetry error models, we estimate the magnitude of random dosimetry errors which would be required to account for all of the difference in the observed dose response between people who did and did not report severe epilation under the assumption that random dosimetry error is the only cause of the effect. We conclude that random dosimetry errors in the range 45 to 50% of true dose are necessary to explain completely the difference in dose response between the two epilation groups. We discuss evidence that the contribution of individual differences in radiation sensitivity to the observed epilation effect is likely to be small, so that random dosimetry errors may be the major cause of this effect.     

Radiation-related posterior lenticular opacities in Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors based on the DS86 dosimetry system

This paper investigates the quantitative relationship of ionizing radiation to the occurrence of posterior lenticular opacities among the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki suggested by the DS86 dosimetry system. DS86 doses are available for 1983 (93.4%) of the 2124 atomic bomb survivors analyzed in 1982. The DS86 kerma neutron component for Hiroshima survivors is much smaller than its comparable T65DR component, but still 4.2-fold higher (0.38 Gy at 6 Gy) than that in Nagasaki (0.09 Gy at 6 Gy). Thus, if the eye is especially sensitive to neutrons, there may yet be some useful information on their effects, particularly in Hiroshima. The dose-response relationship has been evaluated as a function of the separately estimated gamma-ray and neutron doses. Among several different dose-response models without and with two thresholds, we have selected as the best model the one with the smallest x2 or the largest log likelihood value associated with the goodness of fit. The best fit is a linear gamma-linear neutron relationship which assumes different thresholds for the two types of radiation. Both gamma and neutron regression coefficients for the best fitting model are positive and highly significant for the estimated DS86 eye organ dose.     

Mechanistic models for radiation carcinogenesis and the atomic bomb survivor data

Recently, Heidenreich et al. (Radiat. Res., 158, 607-617, 2002) suggested that the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) A-bomb survivor cohort study is not large enough to discriminate between various possible carcinogenic mechanisms. At least with the current follow-up, this is true to some extent, but I think the specific issues are rather different than they suggest. In particular, I do not think it is true-as they further indicate-that various models fit the data about equally well while estimating very different patterns of excess risk, which would imply that these patterns cannot be reasonably well characterized. I will point to specific criticisms of their approach to the data and offer some more general comments on mechanistic modeling approaches. Although there are important distinctions, I suggest on a very optimistic note that the two major approaches may be converging, and soon the main differences may not be in the assumptions made but in the aims of the modeling.     

An analysis of various aspects of atomic bomb dose estimation at RERF using data on acute radiation symptoms

The dose-response curves for acute radiation symptoms reported by atomic bomb survivors are compared by dose estimation method (the method used to calculate the transmission factor), shielding category, and city. Circular symmetry is also investigated. It is found that response rates for acute symptoms differ considerably by dose estimation method and shielding category even after controlling for both gamma and neutron exposure as well as for city, sex, and age at the time of the bomb. One explanation of these results is that the doses of survivors in Japanese type houses estimated by the nine parameter method are subject to less random measurement error, while doses of those survivors who were in the open and shielded by terrain, who were totally shielded by concrete buildings, and who were in factories are subject to especially large random errors. The degree to which systematic bias contributes to these differences could not be determined. These results have important implications for comparisons between cities since Nagasaki includes a far greater proportion of survivors in shielding categories showing weak dose-response relationships than does Hiroshima. The hypothesis that doses might be higher in the westerly direction in Hiroshima is not supported by acute effects analyses, but excess acute effects are found in the north of Hiroshima.     

Allowing for random errors in radiation dose estimates for the atomic bomb survivor data

The presence of random errors in the individual radiation dose estimates for the A-bomb survivors causes underestimation of radiation effects in dose-response analyses, and also distorts the shape of dose-response curves. Statistical methods are presented which will adjust for these biases, provided that a valid statistical model for the dose estimation errors is used. Emphasis is on clarifying some rather subtle statistical issues. For most of this development the distinction between radiation dose and exposure is not critical. The proposed methods involve downward adjustment of dose estimates, but this does not imply that the dosimetry system is faulty. Rather, this is a part of the dose-response analysis required to remove biases in the risk estimates. The primary focus of this report is on linear dose-response models, but methods for linear-quadratic models are also considered briefly. Some plausible models for the dose estimation errors are considered, which have typical errors in a range of 30-40% of the true values, and sensitivity analysis of the resulting bias corrections is provided. It is found that for these error models the resulting estimates of excess cancer risk based on linear models are about 6-17% greater than estimates that make no allowance for dose estimation errors. This increase in risk estimates is reduced to about 4-11% if, as has often been done recently, survivors with dose estimates above 4 Gy are eliminated from the analysis.     

Effect of recent changes in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on cancer mortality risk estimates

The Radiation Effects Research Foundation has recently implemented a new dosimetry system, DS02, to replace the previous system, DS86. This paper assesses the effect of the change on risk estimates for radiation-related solid cancer and leukemia mortality. The changes in dose estimates were smaller than many had anticipated, with the primary systematic change being an increase of about 10% in gamma-ray estimates for both cities. In particular, an anticipated large increase of the neutron component in Hiroshima for low-dose survivors did not materialize. However, DS02 improves on DS86 in many details, including the specifics of the radiation released by the bombs and the effects of shielding by structures and terrain. The data used here extend the last reported follow-up for solid cancers by 3 years, with a total of 10,085 deaths, and extends the follow-up for leukemia by 10 years, with a total of 296 deaths. For both solid cancer and leukemia, estimated age-time patterns and sex difference are virtually unchanged by the dosimetry revision. The estimates of solid-cancer radiation risk per sievert and the curvilinear dose response for leukemia are both decreased by about 8% by the dosimetry revision, due to the increase in the gamma-ray dose estimates. The apparent shape of the dose response is virtually unchanged by the dosimetry revision, but for solid cancers, the additional 3 years of follow-up has some effect. In particular, there is for the first time a statistically significant upward curvature for solid cancer on the restricted dose range 0-2 Sv. However, the low-dose slope of a linear-quadratic fit to that dose range should probably not be relied on for risk estimation, since that is substantially smaller than the linear slopes on ranges 0-1 Sv, 0-0.5 Sv, and 0- 0.25 Sv. Although it was anticipated that the new dosimetry system might reduce some apparent dose overestimates for Nagasaki factory workers, this did not materialize, and factory workers have significantly lower risk estimates. Whether or not one makes allowance for this, there is no statistically significant city difference in the estimated cancer risk.     

Effect of radiation on age at menopause among atomic bomb survivors

Exposure to ionizing radiation has been thought to induce ovarian failure and premature menopause. Proximally exposed female atomic bomb survivors were reported to experience menopause immediately after the exposure more often than those who were distally exposed. However, it remains unclear whether such effects were caused by physical injury and psychological trauma or by direct effects of radiation on the ovaries. The objective of this study was to see if there are any late health effects associated with the exposure to atomic bomb radiation in terms of age at menopause in a cohort of 21,259 Life Span Study female A-bomb survivors. Excess absolute rates (EAR) of natural and artificial menopause were estimated using Poisson regression. A linear threshold model with a knot at 0.40 Gy [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 0.62] was the best fit for a dose response of natural menopause (EAR at 1 Gy at age of 50 years = 19.4/1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 10.4, 30.8) and a linear threshold model with a knot at 0.22 Gy (95% CI: 0.14, 0.34) was the best fit for artificial menopause (EAR at 1 Gy at age of 50 years for females who were exposed at age of 20 years = 14.5/1,000 person-years, 95% CI: 10.2, 20.1). Effect modification by attained age indicated that EARs peaked around 50 years of age for both natural and artificial menopause. Although effect modification by age at exposure was not significant for natural menopause, the EAR for artificial menopause tended to be larger in females exposed at young ages. On the cumulative incidence curve of natural menopause, the median age at menopause was 0.3 years younger in females exposed to radiation of 1 Gy compared with unexposed females. The median age was 1 year younger for combined natural and artificial menopause in the same comparison. In conclusion, age at menopause was thought to decrease with increasing radiation dose for both natural and artificial menopause occurring at least 5 years after the exposure.     

The effect of changes in dosimetry on cancer mortality risk estimates in the atomic bomb survivors

In the spring of 1986 the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) received a new atomic bomb dosimetry system. This report presents the comparisons of leukemia and nonleukemia cancer mortality risk estimates under the old and new dosimetries. In terms of total kerma (essentially whole-body gamma plus neutron exposure), risk estimates for both classes of cancer are 75-85% higher with the new dosimetry. This and other summary comparisons allow for possible nonlinearity at high estimated doses. Changes are also considered in relation to organ doses and assumptions about the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons. Without regard to RBE, the risk estimates for total organ dose are essentially unchanged by the dosimetry revision. However, with increasing assumed values of RBE, the estimated low-LET risk decreases much less rapidly under the new dosimetry, due to the smaller neutron component. Thus at an assumed constant RBE of 10, for example, the effect of the dosimetry revision is to increase organ dose risk estimates, relative to those based on the old dosimetry, by 30% for nonleukemia and 80% for leukemia. At an RBE of 20 these increases are 72 and 136%, respectively. A number of other issues are discussed. The city difference in dose is no longer statistically significant, even at an RBE of one. Estimation of RBE is even less feasible with new dosimetry. There is substantial question of the linearity in dose response, in the sense of a leveling off at higher doses. Finally, some indication is given of how risks estimated from this dosimetry and the current data may compare to widely used estimates based largely on the RERF data with the previous dosimetry.     

Effect of radiation dose on the height of atomic bomb survivors: a longitudinal study

We conducted a longitudinal analysis of height after age 20 for atomic bomb survivors in the Adult Health Study (AHS) cohort. The measurements we used were made from July 1958 to June 1998 (AHS examination cycles 1-20). We analyzed only the subjects with known atomic bomb radiation doses, excluding those who were not in the city at the time of bombing (ATB) and those exposed in utero. We also excluded from the analysis measurements made after the occurrence of vertebral fracture. The total number of subjects was 11,862, and the total number of measurements was 109,770; the mean number of measurements per subject was 9.25. Assuming that stature after age 20 is approximately constant, a simple mixed-effects model was fitted to stature after age 20, and linear dose effects for young ATB subjects were modeled for both sexes. The estimated mean heights for subjects born in 1945 in Hiroshima were 166.0 cm for men and 155.4 cm for women. The sex difference in height was 10.6 cm, with men significantly taller than women (P < 0.001). The difference between the cities was not significant (P = 0.162). The birth cohort effects per decade were -1.7 cm for men (P < 0.001) and -2.1 cm for women (P < 0.001). A reduction of stature due to radiation exposure was observed for individuals of both sexes who were below 19 years of age ATB (95% confidence interval, 17-21 years), and the dose effect was larger for women than for men (P = 0.028). The estimated effects per gray for those who were age 0 ATB were -1.2 cm for men and -2.0 cm for women and for those who were age 10 ATB were-0.57 cm for men and -0.96 cm for women.     

Effects of radiation on the longitudinal trends of hemoglobin levels in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors

The late effects of radiation on the hematopoietic system have not been fully evaluated. We examined the long-term effects of radiation exposure on hemoglobin levels in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors over a 40-year period from 1958 to 1998. Compared to the unexposed survivors, the mean hemoglobin levels for those exposed to a bone marrow dose of 1 Gy were significantly reduced by 0.10 g/dl (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.16) or 0.67% at 40 years of age (P < 0.0001) and by 0.24 g/dl (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.40) or 1.8% at 80 years of age. Radiation effects are greater for smokers than for nonsmokers at age less than 35 years (P < 0.01), although cigarette smoking was associated with increased hemoglobin levels. Sex and birth cohort differences in radiation effects were not found after adjusting for smoking. The radiation-induced reduction in hemoglobin levels could not be explained by the presence of certain anemia-associated diseases.     

Effects of radiation on incidence of primary liver cancer among atomic bomb survivors.

We describe the radiation risk for primary liver cancers between 1958 and 1987 in a cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. The analysis is based on a comprehensive pathology review of known or suspected liver neoplasms that generated 518 incident, first primary cases, mostly hepatocellular carcinoma. Excess relative risk from atomic bomb radiation was linear: 0.81 per sievert weighted liver dose (95% CI [0.32, 1.43]; P < 0.001). Males and females had similar relative risk so that, given a threefold higher background incidence in males, the radiation-related excess incidence was substantially higher in males. Excess risk peaked for those with age at exposure in the early 20s; there was essentially no excess risk in those exposed before age 10 or after age 45. Whether this was due to a difference in sensitivity or possible confounding by other factors could not be addressed retrospectively in the full cohort. A paucity of cholangiocarcinoma and hemangiosarcoma cases suggested that they are not significantly associated with whole-body radiation exposure, as they are with the internal alpha-particle-emitting radiological contrast medium Thorotrast. Because most of the radiation-related excess cases occurred among males, it is important to ascertain what factors put men at greater risk of radiation-related liver cancer.     

Joint effects of radiation and smoking on lung cancer risk among atomic bomb survivors

Results are given on the joint effect of radiation exposure and cigarette smoking on lung cancer risks among A-bomb survivors, based on 592 cases through 1994. Information on smoking was derived from mail surveys and clinical interviews of 45113 persons in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation cohort. Radiation and smoking effects on lung cancer are found to be significantly sub-multiplicative and quite consistent with additivity. The smoking relative risk, previously very low in studies of this cohort, is now similar to that found in Western populations. This increase is likely to be related to the scarcity of cigarettes during and after the war. The smoking relative risk depends little on sex. After adjusting for smoking, the radiation-related risks relative to background rates for nonsmokers are similar to those for other solid cancers: a sex-averaged ERR/Sv of about 0.9 with a female:male sex ratio of about 1.6. Adjusting for smoking removes a spuriously large female:male ratio in radiation relative risk due to confounding between sex and smoking level. The adjustment also removes an artifactual age-at-exposure effect in the radiation relative risk, opposite in direction to other cancers, which is due to birth cohort variation in lung cancer rates.     

The neoplastic transformation potential of mammography X rays and atomic bomb spectrum radiation

Considerable controversy currently exists regarding the biological effectiveness of 29 kVp X rays which are used for mammography screening. This issue must be resolved to enable proper evaluation of radiation risks from breast screening. Here a definitive assessment of the biological effectiveness of 29 kVp X rays compared to the quality of radiation to which the atomic bomb survivors were exposed is presented for the first time. The standard radiation sources used were (a) an atomic bomb simulation spectrum and (b) 2.2 MeV electrons from a strontium-90/yttrium-90 (90Sr/90Y) radioactive source. The biological end point used was neoplastic transformation in vitro in CGL1 (HeLa x human fibroblast hybrid) cells. No significant difference was observed for the biological effectiveness of the two high-energy sources for neoplastic transformation. A limiting relative biological effectiveness (RBE(M)) of 4.42 +/- 2.02 was observed for neoplastic transformation by 29 kVp X rays compared to these two sources. This compares with values of 4.67 +/- 3.93 calculated from previously published data and 3.58 +/- 1.77 when the reference radiation was 200 and 220 kVp X rays. This suggests that the risks associated with mammography screening may be approximately five times higher than previously assumed and that the risk-benefit relationship of mammography exposures may need to be re-examined.     

Effects of radiation on the longitudinal trends of total serum cholesterol levels in the atomic bomb survivors.

The effects of radiation on the long-term trends of the total serum cholesterol levels of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors were examined using data collected in the Adult Health Study over a 28-year period (1958-1986). The growth-curve method was used to model the longitudinal age-dependent changes in cholesterol levels. For each sex, temporal trends of cholesterol levels were characterized with respect to age, body mass index, city and birth year. We then examined whether the temporal trends differed by radiation dose. We showed that the mean growth curve of cholesterol levels for the irradiated subjects were significantly higher than that for the unirradiated subjects, and that the increase was greater for women than for men. No difference in dose response was detected between Hiroshima and Nagasaki. An increased mean level of cholesterol was evident for irradiated women in general, but a notable increase was apparent in males only for the youngest birth cohort of 1935-1945. The difference in the mean cholesterol levels between the irradiated and unirradiated subjects diminished past 70 years of age. It is not known whether this is due to natural progression or is an artifact of nonrandom variation in the rate of participation in the examinations. The maximum predicted increase at 1 Gy for women occurred at age 52 years for the 1930 cohort: 2.5 mg/dl (95% CI 1.6-3.3 mg/dl) for Hiroshima and 2.3 mg/dl (95% CI 1.5-3.1 mg/dl) for Nagasaki. The corresponding increase for men occurred at age 29 years for the 1940 cohort: 1.6 mg/dl (95% CI 0.4-2.8) for Hiroshima and 1.4 mg/dl (95% CI 0.3-2.6) for Nagasaki. Controlling for cigarette smoking did not alter the dose-response relationship. Although the difference in the mean growth curves of the irradiated and unirradiated groups was statistically significant, there was a considerable overlap in the individual growth curves of the two groups. The significant sex difference and the greater magnitude of radiation effects in women suggest that hormonal changes resulting from radiation exposure, such as accelerated menopause, is an area worth investigating to delineate the mechanisms underlying the increased cholesterol levels of the irradiated female subjects. This increase may also partially explain the increased rate of coronary heart disease seen in the atomic bomb survivors.     

Effects of atomic bomb radiation on the differentiation of B lymphocytes and on the function of concanavalin A-induced suppressor T lymphocytes

The differentiation of peripheral blood B lymphocytes into immunoglobulin-producing cells (Ig-PC) by pokeweed mitogen (PWM) and the function of concanavalin A (Con A)-induced suppressor T lymphocytes were examined to elucidate the late effects of atomic bomb radiation. A total of 140 individuals, 70 with an exposure dose of 100 rad or more and an equal number with an exposure dose of 0 rad matched by sex and age, were selected from the Nagasaki Adult Health Study (AHS) sample. Both the differentiation of peripheral blood B lymphocytes into Ig-PC by PWM and the function of Con A-induced suppressor T lymphocytes tended to be more depressed in the exposed group than in the control group, but a statistically significant difference could not be observed between the two groups. The function of Con A-induced suppressor T lymphocytes tended to decrease with age, but a statistical significance was detected only for percentage suppression against IgM-PC.     

No evidence for increased tumor rates below 200 mSv in the atomic bomb survivors data

We investigated for which doses a significantly increased tumor rate can be seen in the RERF Life Span Study data sets on mortality or incidence of solid tumors. No significant increase was found below about 200 mSv. Received: 28 April 1997 / Accepted in revised form: 2 June 1997     

Radiation dose dependences in the atomic bomb survivor cancer mortality data: a model-free visualization

Chomentowski, M., Kellerer, A. M. and Pierce, D. A. Radiation Dose Dependences in the Atomic Bomb Survivor Cancer Mortality Data: A Model-Free Visualization. The standard approach to obtaining nominal risk coefficients for radiation-related cancer involves fitting linear or linear-quadratic dose-response functions. This is usually complemented by a more direct visualization where the data are subdivided into distinct dose categories and the effect level is quantified for each of these categories. Such model-free computations, however, can be quite dependent on the arbitrary choice of the cutpoints in dose. The method proposed here largely avoids this arbitrariness by choosing a dose category width-constant on a log scale-to obtain the desired degree of smoothing, and then superimposing results for all placements of the resulting log-dose grids. The method is applied to leukemia and solid cancer mortality of the A-bomb survivors.