Pairwise rank-based likelihood for estimation and inference on the mixture proportion

We consider the problem of estimation and inference on the mixture parameter in the two-sample problem when sample data from the two distributions as well as from a third population consisting of a mixture of the two are used. Under a general nonparametric model, where the relationship between the two populations is unspecified, we develop a pairwise rank-based likelihood. Simultaneous inference on the mixture proportion and a parameter representing the probability an observation from one population is greater than an observation from the other population is based on this likelihood. Under some regularity conditions, it is shown that the maximum pairwise rank likelihood estimator is consistent and has an asymptotic normal distribution. Simulation results indicate that the performance of this statistic is satisfactory. The methodology is demonstrated on a data set in prostate cancer.     

Marginalized transition models and likelihood inference for longitudinal categorical data

Marginal generalized linear models are now frequently used for the analysis of longitudinal data. Semiparametric inference for marginal models was introduced by Liang and Zeger (1986, Biometrics 73, 13-22). This article develops a general parametric class of serial dependence models that permits likelihood-based marginal regression analysis of binary response data. The methods naturally extend the first-order Markov models of Azzalini (1994, Biometrika 81, 767-775) and prove computationally feasible for long series.     

Maximum likelihood inference and bootstrap methods for plant organ growth via multi-phase kinetic models and their application to maize

* BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fitting the parameters of models of plant organ growth is a means to investigate how environmental conditions affect plant architecture. The aim of this article is to evaluate some non-linear methods for fitting the parameters of multi-phase models of the kinetics of extension of plant organs such as laminae, sheaths and internodes. * METHODS: A set of computational procedures was developed allowing parameter-fitting of multi-phase models, using the maximum likelihood criterion, in which phases are identified with reference to ontogenic processes. Two bootstrap methods were compared to assess the precision of the estimates of fitted parameters, and of functions of these parameters such as the final leaf length, and the duration and rate of the rapid extension phase. Methods were applied to an experimental dataset, representing the kinetics of laminae, sheaths and internodes along the maize shoot, for two contrasting densities. * KEY RESULTS: A set of multi-phase models was proposed to describe the extension of laminae, sheaths and internodes along the shoot. The distinguishable phases differed between laminae, sheaths and internodes. For sheaths and laminae, but not for internodes, the same model could be fitted to all phytomers along the shoot. The variation of parameters along the shoot and between density treatments, as well as derived functions such as the durations of the phases of extension, are presented for laminae. It was the duration of the fast extension period, rather than its rate, which determined the difference in final length between treatments. * CONCLUSIONS: Such methods permit a large degree of objectivity and facilitate the analysis of such rather complicated but co-ordinated datasets. The work also illustrates some natural limitations of maximum likelihood methods, and viable ways of overcoming them by including a priori knowledge in the model fitting method are discussed.     

Diagnostic measures for empirical likelihood of general estimating equations

We develop diagnostic measures for assessing the influence ofindividual observations when using empirical likelihood withgeneral estimating equations, and we use these measures to constructgoodness-of-fit statistics for testing possible misspecificationin the estimating equations. Our diagnostics include case-deletionmeasures, local influence measures and pseudo-residuals. Ourgoodness-of-fit statistics include the sum of local influencemeasures and the processes of pseudo-residuals. Simulation studiesare conducted to evaluate our methods, and real datasets areanalyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures andgoodness-of-fit statistics.     

Standard errors for EM estimates in generalized linear models with random effects

A procedure is derived for computing standard errors of EM estimates in generalized linear models with random effects. Quadrature formulas are used to approximate the integrals in the EM algorithm, where two different approaches are pursued, i.e., Gauss-Hermite quadrature in the case of Gaussian random effects and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for an unspecified random effect distribution. An approximation of the expected Fisher information matrix is derived from an expansion of the EM estimating equations. This allows for inferential arguments based on EM estimates, as demonstrated by an example and simulations.     

A note on profile likelihood for exponential tilt mixture models

Suppose that independent observations are drawn from multipledistributions, each of which is a mixture of two component distributionssuch that their log density ratio satisfies a linear model witha slope parameter and an intercept parameter. Inference forsuch models has been studied using empirical likelihood, andmixed results have been obtained. The profile empirical likelihoodof the slope and intercept has an irregularity at the null hypothesisso that the two component distributions are equal. We derivea profile empirical likelihood and maximum likelihood estimatorof the slope alone, and obtain the usual asymptotic propertiesfor the estimator and the likelihood ratio statistic regardlessof the null. Furthermore, we show the maximum likelihood estimatorof the slope and intercept jointly is consistent and asymptoticallynormal regardless of the null. At the null, the joint maximumlikelihood estimator falls along a straight line through theorigin with perfect correlation asymptotically to the firstorder.     

Estimation of the Size Distribution of Spherical Grains in the Boolean Model

A method of strong consistent estimation of the radius' distribution of spherical grains in the Boolean model in R^d, d ≦3, is proposed. It is based on the evaluation of the empirical capacity functional and application of the Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for random closed sets.     

Estimation of multivariate frailty models using penalized partial likelihood

There exists a growing literature on the estimation of gamma distributed multiplicative shared frailty models. There is, however, often a need to model more complicated frailty structures, but attempts to extend gamma frailties run into complications. Motivated by hip replacement data with a more complicated dependence structure, we propose a model based on multiplicative frailties with a multivariate log-normal joint distribution. We give a justification and an estimation procedure for this generally structured frailty model, which is a generalization of the one presented by McGilchrist (1993, Biometrics 49, 221-225). The estimation is based on Laplace approximation of the likelihood function. This leads to estimating equations based on a penalized fixed effects partial likelihood, where the marginal distribution of the frailty terms determines the penalty term. The tuning parameters of the penalty function, i.e., the frailty variances, are estimated by maximizing an approximate profile likelihood. The performance of the approximation is evaluated by simulation, and the frailty model is fitted to the hip replacement data.     

A general maximum likelihood analysis of variance components in generalized linear models

This paper describes an EM algorithm for nonparametric maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in generalized linear models with variance component structure. The algorithm provides an alternative analysis to approximate MQL and PQL analyses (McGilchrist and Aisbett, 1991, Biometrical Journal 33, 131-141; Breslow and Clayton, 1993; Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 9-25; McGilchrist, 1994, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 56, 61-69; Goldstein, 1995, Multilevel Statistical Models) and to GEE analyses (Liang and Zeger, 1986, Biometrika 73, 13-22). The algorithm, first given by Hinde and Wood (1987, in Longitudinal Data Analysis, 110-126), is a generalization of that for random effect models for overdispersion in generalized linear models, described in Aitkin (1996, Statistics and Computing 6, 251-262). The algorithm is initially derived as a form of Gaussian quadrature assuming a normal mixing distribution, but with only slight variation it can be used for a completely unknown mixing distribution, giving a straightforward method for the fully nonparametric ML estimation of this distribution. This is of value because the ML estimates of the GLM parameters can be sensitive to the specification of a parametric form for the mixing distribution. The nonparametric analysis can be extended straightforwardly to general random parameter models, with full NPML estimation of the joint distribution of the random parameters. This can produce substantial computational saving compared with full numerical integration over a specified parametric distribution for the random parameters. A simple method is described for obtaining correct standard errors for parameter estimates when using the EM algorithm. Several examples are discussed involving simple variance component and longitudinal models, and small-area estimation.     

Efficiencies of maximum likelihood methods of phylogenetic inferences when different substitution models are used

Choice of a substitution model is a crucial step in the maximum likelihood (ML) method of phylogenetic inference, and investigators tend to prefer complex mathematical models to simple ones. However, when complex models with many parameters are used, the extent of noise in statistical inferences increases, and thus complex models may not produce the true topology with a higher probability than simple ones. This problem was studied using computer simulation. When the number of nucleotides used was relatively large (1000 bp), the HKY+Gamma model showed smaller d(T) topological distance between the inferred and the true trees) than the JC and Kimura models. In the cases of shorter sequences (300 bp) simpler model and search algorithm such as JC model and SA+NNI search were found to be as efficient as more complicated searches and models in terms of topological distances, although the topologies obtained under HKY+Gamma model had the highest likelihood values. The performance of relatively simple search algorithm SA+NNI was found to be essentially the same as that of more extensive SA+TBR search under all models studied. Similarly to the conclusions reached by Takahashi and Nei [Mol. Biol. Evol. 17 (2000) 1251], our results indicate that simple models can be as efficient as complex models, and that use of complex models does not necessarily give more reliable trees compared with simple models.