Childlessness drives the sex difference in the association between income and reproductive success of modern Europeans

The association between reproductive success and income in economically developed societies remains a controversial and understudied topic. The commonly made statement that individuals with a higher income have fewer children defies evolutionary explanation. Here we present results from an analyses of the association between lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and income for modern Europeans from 13 countries. We examine the relationships among income, partner income, sex and LRS, and the role of childlessness in driving the relationships. For women, we find a negative association between LRS and income, while for men, we find a flat or slightly positive one. The sex difference in the association appears to be driven by income's sex-specific association with childlessness; men with a low income have a relatively high risk of childlessness, while women with a low income have a low risk of childlessness. Consequently, once childless people are excluded from the analysis, LRS is negatively associated with income for both sexes. We argue that the observed LRS–income associations may be an outcome of evolved behavioural predispositions operating in modern environments and conclude that, even though humans fail to maximise LRS at all income levels in modern settings, evolutionary theory can still help to explain sex differences in LRS.     

Evolution of African mole-rat sociality: burrow architecture, rainfall and foraging in colonies of the cooperatively breeding Fukomys mechowii

African mole rats (Bathyergidae) offer an excellent system with which to test theories relating to the evolution and maintenance of sociality in mammals. The aridity food distribution hypothesis (AFDH) suggests that, within the bathyergids, sociality has evolved in response to patterns of rainfall, its effects on food distribution, and the subsequent costs and risks of foraging and dispersal. Here, in the first detailed study of burrow architecture in a social mole-rat species, with data from 32 burrows, we show that in the giant mole-rat Fukomys mechowii burrow fractal dimension increases with colony size and is higher during the rainy season than during the dry season. The mass of food in the burrow increases with fractal dimension and is higher during the rainy season than during the dry season. These results link for the first time colony size, burrow architecture, rainfall and foraging success and provide support for two assumptions of the AFDH, namely that (1) in arid conditions burrowing may be severely constrained by the high costs of digging; and (2) the potential risks of failing to locate food may be mitigated by increases in colony size.     

Producing sons reduces lifetime reproductive success of subsequent offspring in pre-industrial Finns

Life-history theory states that reproductive events confer costs upon mothers. Many studies have shown that reproduction causes a decline in maternal condition, survival or success in subsequent reproductive events. However, little attention has been given to the prospect of reproductive costs being passed onto subsequent offspring, despite the fact that parental fitness is a function of the reproductive success of progeny. Here we use pedigree data from a pre-industrial human population to compare offspring life-history traits and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) according to the cost incurred by each individual's mother in the previous reproductive event. Because producing a son versus a daughter has been associated with greater maternal reproductive cost, we hypothesize that individuals born to mothers who previously produced sons will display compromised survival and/or LRS, when compared with those produced following daughters. Controlling for confounding factors such as socio-economic status and ecological conditions, we show that those offspring born after elder brothers have similar survival but lower LRS compared with those born after elder sisters. Our results demonstrate a maternal cost of reproduction manifested in reduced LRS of subsequent offspring. To our knowledge, this is the first time such a long-term intergenerational cost has been shown in a mammal species.     

Molecular insight into patterns of colony composition and paternity in the common mole-rat Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus

We report the discovery of intraspecific variation in both colony composition and patterns of paternity in two populations of the social common mole-rat Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus. These two populations represent the mesic and arid habitat extremes of the species' broad ecological range in South Africa. Until recently colonies of the common mole-rat were thought to consist of familial groups whereby all colony members were the offspring of a monogamous reproductive pair. The remaining colony members were thought to forego reproduction until both social and ecological conditions favoured dispersal and opportunities for independent outbreeding. Results from genetic assignment tests using microsatellite markers indicate that while colony composition is dominated by familial groups, colonies within both populations included both adult and subadult foreign conspecifics. Analysis of parentage reveals that the social organization of C. h. hottentotus is not that of strict monogamy; paternity of offspring was not assigned consistently to the largest, most dominant male within the colony. Moreover, a number of significantly smaller males were found to sire offspring, suggesting a sneak-mating strategy by subordinate within-colony males. Extra-colony extra-pair paternity (ECP) was also found to characterize C. h. hottentotus colonies, occurring with similar frequencies in both habitats. Both dominant established breeding males and subordinate males were identified as siring young in nonsource colonies. Furthermore, established breeding males were found to sire extra-colony young in the same season as siring young within their source colonies. We discuss the significance of these results within the context of the divergent ecological regimes characterizing the two sites and observe that our results revisit the accuracy of using behavioural and morphological characters, which have structured the basis of our understanding of the behavioural ecology of this species, as indicators of breeding status in mark-recapture studies.     

Colony defense in Damaraland mole-rats, Cryptomys damarensis

I examined defense against conspecific intruders in coloniesof the Damaraland mole-rat. I introduced foreign animals tocaptive colonies and examined the effect of the sex and breedingstatus of the intruder on the sex and breeding status of thosethat defended. Intruding mole-rats were almost always attacked.Colony defense against intruders was carried out almost exclusivelyby dominant, reproductive individuals and was directed primarily toward individuals of the same sex. Nonbreeding, subordinatemole-rats participated only rarely. These results contrastsharply with colony defense in the related naked mole-rat andsuggest that investment in defense activities in Damaralandmole-rats primarily reflects repulsion of potential competitorsfor breeding status. Subordinate mole-rats may lack incentiveto participate in potentially costly defense, as they are unlikelyto gain reproductive opportunities within the colony and probablygain fitness primarily through dispersing to breed.     

Lifetime reproductive success in common buzzard, Buteo buteo: from individual variation to population demography

We studied annual and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of both sexes of common buzzard Buteo buteo in eastern Westphalia, Germany. We followed a bottom‐up approach starting from individual breeding attempts, over lifetime reproductive success to derive population demography. Annual breeding performance and survival followed a quadratic relationship with breeding experience; individuals starting their breeding career were less likely to survive and breed successfully than birds of intermediate breeding experience. According to an analysis of selection gradients, both the opportunity and intensity of selection peaked in the early stages of the breeding career. The distribution of both LRS and another fitness measure, λ, was highly skewed, with ca 17% of adult birds producing 50% of fledglings in both sexes. Besides breeding life span and number of breeding attempts, habitat quality and plumage morph were significant predictors of LRS. There were strong differences in LRS and λ between the plumage morphs in both sexes: intermediate pigmented buzzards were much more successful than either dark or light ones. There was no significant difference between buzzard cohorts either in LRS or λ, nor did these fitness measures differ between individuals starting their breeding career at different conditions of food availability. Based on individual life histories, we formed a transition matrix and analysed its properties to study the population as a whole. This analysis showed that the population growth rate was close to unity (0.906, bootstrapped 95% confidence limits: 0.834 and 0.962). Analysis of reproductive values and elasticities further emphasised colour morph differences: the contribution of intermediate individuals to population growth greatly exceeded that of dark or light individuals. Thus most phenomena on all levels from individual breeding attempts over lifetime reproductive success to population demography can be explained by the fitness differences between the colour morphs with the intermediate morph maintaining the current population renewal potential.     

Life span and reproductive cost explain interspecific variation in the optimal onset of reproduction

Fitness can be profoundly influenced by the age at first reproduction (AFR), but to date the AFR–fitness relationship only has been investigated intraspecifically. Here, we investigated the relationship between AFR and average lifetime reproductive success (LRS) across 34 bird species. We assessed differences in the deviation of the Optimal AFR (i.e., the species‐specific AFR associated with the highest LRS) from the age at sexual maturity, considering potential effects of life history as well as social and ecological factors. Most individuals adopted the species‐specific Optimal AFR and both the mean and Optimal AFR of species correlated positively with life span. Interspecific deviations of the Optimal AFR were associated with indices reflecting a change in LRS or survival as a function of AFR: a delayed AFR was beneficial in species where early AFR was associated with a decrease in subsequent survival or reproductive output. Overall, our results suggest that a delayed onset of reproduction beyond maturity is an optimal strategy explained by a long life span and costs of early reproduction. By providing the first empirical confirmations of key predictions of life‐history theory across species, this study contributes to a better understanding of life‐history evolution.     

Survival benefits select for group living in a social spider despite reproductive costs

The evolution of cooperation requires benefits of group living to exceed costs. Hence, some components of fitness are expected to increase with increasing group size, whereas others may decrease because of competition among group members. The social spiders provide an excellent system to investigate the costs and benefits of group living: they occur in groups of various sizes and individuals are relatively short-lived, therefore life history traits and Lifetime Reproductive Success (LRS) can be estimated as a function of group size. Sociality in spiders has originated repeatedly in phylogenetically distant families and appears to be accompanied by a transition to a system of continuous intra-colony mating and extreme inbreeding. The benefits of group living in such systems should therefore be substantial. We investigated the effect of group size on fitness components of reproduction and survival in the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola in two populations in Namibia. In both populations, the major benefit of group living was improved survival of colonies and late-instar juveniles with increasing colony size. By contrast, female fecundity, female body size and early juvenile survival decreased with increasing group size. Mean individual fitness, estimated as LRS and calculated from five components of reproduction and survival, was maximized for intermediate- to large-sized colonies. Group living in these spiders thus entails a net reproductive cost, presumably because of an increase in intra-colony competition with group size. This cost is traded off against survival benefits at the colony level, which appear to be the major factor favouring group living. In the field, many colonies occur at smaller size than expected from the fitness curve, suggesting ecological or life history constraints on colony persistence which results in a transient population of relatively small colonies.     

Lifetime offspring production in relation to breeding lifespan, attractiveness, and mating status in male collared flycatchers

As a comprehensive fitness parameter, lifetime reproductive success (LRS) is influenced by many different environmental and genetic factors, among which longevity is one of the most important. These factors can be reflected in secondary sexual characters, which may affect the life histories of individuals via social relations with conspecifics. Facultative polygyny in birds is another conspicuous reproductive trait that potentially increases male reproductive success, but lifetime success data in relation to polygyny are scarce. Here, we used 17?years of breeding data to quantify the LRS of male collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) on the basis of lifetime recruitment of offspring. Breeding lifespan showed a positive relationship with LRS, and it was also significantly associated with mean recruitment of offspring per breeding year. Body size and sexually selected forehead patch size did not predict the number of recruits. Polygyny was positively associated with LRS, but when we corrected for lifespan, this relationship disappeared. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between longevity and LRS is not explained by the higher number of reproductive attempts when living longer, and question the adaptive value of polygyny in this population. The lack of association between forehead patch size and recruitment suggests that forehead patch is a poor indicator of phenotypic quality in our birds.     

Sex-ratio dependent execution of queens in polygynous colonies of the ant Formica exsecta

Formica exsecta has become an important model system for studying intraspecific variation in sex ratios. Patterns of sex allocation in polygynous (multiple queen per nest) populations of F. exsecta are generally consistent with the queen-replenishment hypothesis. This hypothesis states that colonies produce gynes (reproductive females) in order to increase queen number and enhance colony survival and/or productivity when the number of resident queens is low. However, the small proportion of colonies that raise gynes produce more than necessary for simple queen replenishment. It has been hypothesized that excess production of gynes may occur to reduce the frequency of accepting foreign unrelated gynes into the colony when workers cannot distinguish nestmate from non-nestmate queens. This explanation for excess gynes requires weak or no aggression between non-nestmates and is expected to lead to the selective execution of new queens by colonies that do not invest in the production of gynes. Experimental studies where gynes were introduced into natal and foreign colonies indeed suggested that polygynous populations of F. exsecta have a poor nestmate recognition system. Although gynes were significantly more likely to be accepted in their parental colony compared to another foreign female-producing colony, the difference was small. Moreover, encounters between workers from different colonies within the population showed very little aggression and were no more aggressive than encounters between nestmates, again suggesting a weak capacity for nestmate recognition. Our experiment also showed that colonies that produced only males executed most of the gynes that were experimentally introduced into the colony, whereas female-producing colonies accepted most gynes. This is consistent with ants using a simple rule of thumb to decrease parasitism by unrelated queens, whereby colonies selectively destroy gynes whenever gynes are not produced in the colonies.     

The relative age structure and body masses of complete wild-captured colonies of two social mole-rats, the common mole-rat, Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus and the Damaraland mole-rat, Cryptomys damarensis

The relative ages of individuals in a complete wild-captured colony of 13 Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus and a complete wild-captured colony of 25 Cryptomys damarensis were determined by means of tooth wear and eruption patterns and through the degree of ossification of their skeletons.
From sequential tooth wear and eruption patterns four relative age classes were discerned in C. h. hottentotus and five in C. damarensis . These relative age class allocations were supported by the studies on the ossification of the skeletons.
In C. damarensis , older animals are not necessarily the larger-sized individuals. In C. h. hottentotus , however, older animals are usually the larger-sized individuals. The reproductive pair in each of the Cryptomys species are the oldest or amongst the oldest individuals in the colony.
Individuals in a second colony of C. damarensis kept under laboratory conditions for three years maintained greatly disparate body masses which were correlated with the role of the individual within the colony and not, where it was known, with the age of the animal.
An analysis of 13 body and skull measurements performed on a complete colony of 13 C. h. hottentotus and a complete colony of 25 C damarensis revealed that only C. damarensis showed sexual dimorphism. This dimorphism was apparent from an early age but became more pronounced in older animals.     

Patterns of spatio-temporal variation in the survival rates of a viviparous lizard: the interacting effects of sex,reproductive trade-offs,aridity, and human-induced disturbance

Examination of the spatial and temporal variation in survival rates provides insight on how the action of natural selection varies among populations of single species. In this study, we used mark-recapture data from seven populations of the viviparous lizard Sceloporus grammicus in Central Mexico and a multi-model inference framework to examine interpopulation variation in the survival of adult males and females. We aimed to analyze the potential effects of aridity, human-induced disturbance, and reproductive costs on the survival rates of these lizards. For females in particular, we also searched for a negative relationship between litter size (adjusted for female size) and female survival. Our results demonstrate seasonal changes in survival for males and females. In three out of our seven study sites female survival decreased during the birthing season. In contrast, male survival did not appear to decrease during the mating season. We found an interaction between site-specific aridity and reproductive season affecting female survival. A decrease in female survival during the birthing season was observed in relatively arid sites. In one of these arid sites we found a negative effect of size-adjusted litter size on female survival: females producing more offspring than those expected for their size were more likely to die. This result represents evidence of a physiological trade-off for gravid females occurring in at least one of the studied populations. Interpopulation variation in the degree of human-induced disturbance could not explain the observed patterns of spatial variation in survival rates. Our results demonstrate wide variation in sex-specific survival patterns of this viviparous lizard and provide evidence that negative associations between reproduction and survival are highly dependent on the local environmental conditions.     

Relative contributions of fixed and dynamic heterogeneity to variation in lifetime reproductive success in kestrels (Falco tinnunculus)

Many species show large variation in lifetime reproductive success (LRS), with a few individuals producing the majority of offspring. This variation can be explained by factors related to individuals (fixed heterogeneity) and stochastic differences in survival and reproduction (dynamic heterogeneity). In this study, we study the relative effects of these processes on the LRS of a Dutch Kestrel population, using three different methods. First, we extended neutral simulations by simulating LRS distributions of populations consisting of groups with increasingly different population parameters. Decomposition of total LRS variance into contributions from fixed and dynamic heterogeneity revealed that the proportion of fixed heterogeneity is probably lower than 10% of the total variance. Secondly, we used sensitivities of the mean and variance in LRS to each parameter to analytically show that it is impossible to get equal contributions of fixed and dynamic heterogeneity when only one parameter differs between groups. Finally, we computed the LRS probability distribution to show that even when all individuals have identical survival and reproduction rates, the variance in LRS is large (females: 27.52, males: 12.99). Although each method has its limitations, they all lead to the conclusion that the majority of the variation in kestrel LRS is caused by dynamic heterogeneity. This large effect of dynamic heterogeneity on LRS is similar to results for other species and contributes to the evidence that in most species the majority of individual variation in LRS is due to dynamic heterogeneity.     

Breeding status affects motoneuron number and muscle size in naked mole‐rats: Recruitment of perineal motoneurons?

Naked mole‐rats live in large colonies and exhibit a strict reproductive hierarchy. Each colony has one breeding female and one to three breeding males; all other individuals are nonreproductive subordinates. Subordinates show a remarkable lack of sex differences in behavior and anatomy, but can become reproductive if removed from the colony. We recently reported that the striated perineal muscles and their innervating motoneurons, which are sexually dimorphic in all other mammals examined to date, are not dimorphic in subordinate naked mole‐rats. Here we asked whether sexual differentiation of this neuromuscular system occurs when a subordinate becomes a breeder. The size and number of cells within Onuf's nucleus (homologue of the rat spinal nucleus of the bulbocavernosus) as well as perineal muscle volume were examined in subordinate and breeding naked mole‐rats of both sexes. Sex differences in perineal motoneurons were not observed, regardless of social status. To our surprise, however, counts of motoneurons in Onuf's nucleus were increased ～30% in breeders of both sexes. This was accompanied by a reciprocal decrease in cells in Onuf's nucleus that were characterized by small soma size, and lacked a clear nucleus or nucleolus. Although not exhibiting typical motoneuron morphology, some of these small cells were positive for the motoneuron marker, SMI‐32. The neuronal changes correlate with increased perineal muscle volumes in breeders. We propose that small, relatively undifferentiated cells are recruited to the pool of large Onuf's nucleus motoneurons when subordinate naked mole‐rats become breeders. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Neurobiol, 2006     

Lifetime fitness of short- and long-distance dispersing great reed warblers

Dispersal is of prime importance for many evolutionary processes and has been studied for decades. The reproductive consequences of dispersal have proven difficult to study, simply because it is difficult to keep track of dispersing individuals. In most previous studies evaluating the fitness effects of dispersal, immigrants at a study locality have been lumped into one category and compared to philopatric individuals. This is unfortunate, because there are reasons to believe that immigrants with long and short dispersal distances may differ substantially in reproductive success. In the present study, we used a combination of capture-recapturing and multilocus microsatellite genotyping to categorize great reed warblers at our Swedish study site as philopatric individuals or short- or long-distance dispersing immigrants. We then performed novel comparisons of lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and survival rates of these three dispersal categories. The birds belonged to cohorts 1987-1996, and data for their LRS were gathered between 1988 and 2003. The analyses showed that philopatric males attracted more females, produced more fledglings and recruits throughout their lives, and survived better than immigrants. Among the immigrant males, those categorized as long-distance dispersers had lowest LRS and survival probability. Models that included covariates of potential importance showed that the difference in LRS between dispersal categories was partly caused by corresponding variation in number of breeding years at our study site. These results indicate that short- and, in particular, long-distance dispersers were of poor phenotypic quality, but it may also be proposed that immigrants attracted few females because they were poorly adapted to the local social environment. In females, the number of local recruits corrected for the number of breeding years (as well as for number of fledglings) differed between dispersal categories in a pattern that suggests an intermediate optimal dispersal distance. Short-distance dispersers recruited more offspring per year (and per fledgling) than both philopatric individuals and long-distance dispersers. Data suggest that the low LRS of philopatric females was related to costs of inbreeding. The low LRS of long-distance dispersing females may have resulted from their offspring being especially prone to disperse outside the study area, but also other potential explanations exist, such as local maladaptation. Our study highlights the importance of separating immigrant birds on the basis of their genetic similarity to the local study population when analyzing variation in LRS and inferring realized gene flow.     

Laboratory relationships between adult lifetime reproductive success and fitness surrogates in a Drosophila littoralis population

The difficulties in measuring total fitness of individuals necessitate the use of fitness surrogates in ecological and evolutionary studies. These surrogates can be different components of fitness (e.g. survival or fecundity), or proxies more uncertainly related to fitness (e.g. body size or growth rate). Ideally, fitness would be measured over the lifetime of individuals; however, more convenient short-time measures are often used. Adult lifetime reproductive success (adult LRS) is closely related to the total fitness of individuals, but it is difficult to measure and rarely included in fitness estimation in experimental studies. We explored phenotypic correlations between female adult LRS and various commonly used fitness components and proxies in a recently founded laboratory population of Drosophila littoralis. Noting that survival is usually higher in laboratory conditions than in nature, we also calculated adjusted adult LRS measures that give more weight to early reproduction. The lifetime measures of fecundity, longevity, and offspring viability were all relatively highly correlated with adult LRS. However, correlations with short-time measures of fecundity and offspring production varied greatly depending on the time of measurement, and the optimal time for measurement was different for unadjusted compared to adjusted adult LRS measures. Correlations between size measures and adult LRS varied from weak to modest, leg size and female weight having the highest correlations. Our results stress the importance of well-founded choice of fitness surrogates in empirical research.     

Plumage polymorphism and fitness in Swainson’s hawks

We examine the maintenance of a plumage polymorphism, variation in plumages among the same age and sex class within a population, in a population of Swainson’s Hawks. We take advantage of 32 years of data to examine two prevalent hypotheses used to explain the persistence of morphs: apostatic selection and heterozygous advantage. We investigate differences in fitness among three morph classes of a melanistic trait in Swainson’s Hawks: light (7% of the local breeding population), intermediate (57%) and dark (36%). Specifically, we examined morph differences in adult apparent survival, breeding success, annual number of fledglings produced, probability of offspring recruitment into the breeding population and lifetime reproductive success (LRS). If apostatic selection were a factor in maintaining morphs, we would expect that individuals with the least frequent morph would perform best in one or more of these fitness categories. Alternatively, if heterozygous advantage played a role in the maintenance of this polymorphism, we would expect heterozygotes (i.e. intermediate morphs) to have one or more increased rates in these categories. We found no difference in adult apparent survival between morph classes. Similarly, there were no differences in breeding success, nest productivity, LRS or probability of recruitment of offspring between parental morph. We conclude that neither apostatic selection nor heterozygous advantage appear to play a role in maintaining morphs in this population.     

Equivocal evidence for a change in balance between selfing and pollinator-mediated reproduction in annual Brassicaceae growing along a rainfall gradient

Because many plants ensure their reproductive success using some level of self-fertilization, it is predicted that the balance between pollinator-mediated pollen transfer and autonomous selfing will be correlated with habitat harshness and pollinator activity. To study these correlations, we used three annual species that differ in their self-incompatibility and compared their reproductive success in the form of fruit production and seed viability, with and without pollinators, along a rainfall gradient and in relation to pollinator activity. We found that pollinator activity decreased with increasing aridity. Although the reproductive success in the absence of pollinators fitted the species’ level of self-incompatibility, no clear trend was detected between pollinator visits or site harshness and relative reproductive success. Only one of the species, Sinapis alba, showed a consistent increase in autonomous selfing with both increased aridity and decreased pollinator visits, a finding that was supported by an increase in the viability of seeds produced in the absence of pollinators. Nevertheless, unlike our prediction, the absolute number of seeds produced per S. alba flower increased with aridity. Our overall findings suggest that despite decreasing pollinator abundance and diversity with increasing aridity, the reproductive success of annual species, even of those with high self-incompatibility, remains relatively high. Although there may be several mechanisms governing these results, the overall constant seed production despite environmental uncertainties may be part of the mechanism by which plants in arid ecosystems buffer environmental variations.     

Males and Females Gain Differentially from Sociality in a Promiscuous Fruit Bat Cynopterus sphinx

Sociality emerges when the benefits of group living outweigh its costs. While both males and females are capable of strong social ties, the evolutionary drivers for sociality and the benefits accrued maybe different for each sex. In this study, we investigate the differential reproductive success benefits of group membership that males and females might obtain in the promiscuous fruit bat Cynopterus sphinx. Individuals of this species live in flexible social groups called colonies. These colonies are labile and there is high turnover of individuals. However, colony males sire more offspring within the colony suggesting that being part of a colony may result in reproductive benefits for males. This also raises the possibility that long-term loyalty towards the colony may confer additional advantage in terms of higher reproductive success. We used ten seasons of genetic parentage data to estimate reproductive success and relatedness of individuals in the colony. We used recapture data to identify long and short-term residents in the colony as well as to obtain rates of recapture for males and females. Our results reveal that males have a significantly higher chance of becoming long-term residents (than females), and these long-term resident males gain twice the reproductive success compared to short-term resident males. We also observed that long-term resident females are related to each other and also achieve higher reproductive success than short-term resident females. In contrast, long-term resident males do not differ from short-term resident males in their levels of relatedness. Our results re-iterate the benefits of sociality even in species that are promiscuous and socially labile and possible benefits of maintaining a colony.     

Skewed distributions of lifetime reproductive success: beyond mean and variance

Lifetime reproductive performance is quantified here by the LRS (lifetime reproductive success), the random number of offspring an individual produces over its lifetime. Many field studies find that distributions of LRS among individuals are non‐normal, zero‐inflated and highly skewed. These results beg the question, what is the distribution of LRS predicted by demographic models when the only source of randomness is demographic stochasticity? Here we present the first exact analysis of the probability distribution of LRS for species described by age + stage models; our analysis starts with estimated vital rates. We illustrate with three examples: the Hadza, human hunter‐foragers (age‐only), the evergreen tree Tsuga canadensis (stage‐only) and Roe deer, Capreolus capreolus (age + stage). For each we obtain the exact distribution of LRS, but also calculate and discuss the first three moments. Our results point to important questions about how such LRS distributions affect natural selection, and life history evolution.