Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R₀) as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed) model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31–50%), 45% (42–48%), and 51% (44–56%) among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.     

Facility-Based Delivery during the Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in Rural Liberia: Analysis from a Cross-Sectional,Population-Based Household Survey

BackgroundThe Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic has threatened access to basic health services through facility closures, resource diversion, and decreased demand due to community fear and distrust. While modeling studies have attempted to estimate the impact of these disruptions, no studies have yet utilized population-based survey data.ConclusionsWe detected a 30% decreased odds of FBD after the start of EVD in a rural Liberian county with relatively few cases. Because health facilities never closed in Rivercess County, this estimate may under-approximate the effect seen in the most heavily affected areas. These are the first population-based survey data to show collateral disruptions to facility-based delivery caused by the West African EVD epidemic, and they reinforce the need to consider the full spectrum of implications caused by public health emergencies.     

Simulating the effect of quarantine on the spread of the 1918–19 flu in Central Canada

Quarantine is often proposed and sometimes used to control the spread of infectious diseases through a human population. Yet there is usually little or no information on the effectiveness of attempting to quarantine humans that is not of an anecdotal or conjectural nature. This paper describes how a compartmental model for the geographic spread of infectious diseases can be used to address the potential effectiveness of human quarantine. The model is applied to data from the historical record in central Canada around the time of the 1918–19 influenza epidemic. Information on the daily mobility patterns of individuals engaged in the fur trade throughout the region prior to, during, and immediately after the epidemic are used to determine whether rates of travel were affected by informal quarantine policies imposed by community leaders. The model is then used to assess the impact of observed differences in travel on the spread of the epidemic. Results show that when mobility rates are very low, as in this region, quarantine practices must be highly effective before they alter disease patterns significantly. Simulation results suggest, though, that effectiveness varies depending on when the limitation on travel between communities is implemented and how long it lasts, and that a policy of introducing quarantine at the earliest possible time may not always lead to the greatest reduction in cases of a disease.     

Community-Centered Responses to Ebola in Urban Liberia: The View from Below

BackgroundThe West African Ebola epidemic has demonstrated that the existing range of medical and epidemiological responses to emerging disease outbreaks is insufficient, especially in post-conflict contexts with exceedingly poor healthcare infrastructures. In this context, community-based responses have proven vital for containing Ebola virus disease (EVD) and shifting the epidemic curve. Despite a surge in interest in local innovations that effectively contained the epidemic, the mechanisms for community-based response remain unclear. This study provides baseline information on community-based epidemic control priorities and identifies innovative local strategies for containing EVD in Liberia.Conclusions/SignificanceLocal communities’ strategies and recommendations give insight into how urban Liberian communities contained the EVD outbreak while navigating the systemic failures of the initial state and international response. Communities in urban Liberia adapted to the epidemic using multiple coping strategies. In the absence of health, infrastructural and material supports, local people engaged in self-reliance in order to contain the epidemic at the micro-social level. These innovations were regarded as necessary, but as less desirable than a well-supported health-systems based response; and were seen as involving considerable individual, social, and public health costs, including heightened vulnerability to infection.     

Keeping the faith: African American faith leaders' perspectives and recommendations for reducing racial disparities in HIV/AIDS infection

In Philadelphia, 66% of new HIV infections are among African Americans and 2% of African Americans are living with HIV. The city of Philadelphia has among the largest numbers of faith institutions of any city in the country. Although faith-based institutions play an important role in the African American community, their response to the AIDS epidemic has historically been lacking. We convened 38 of Philadelphia's most influential African American faith leaders for in-depth interviews and focus groups examining the role of faith-based institutions in HIV prevention. Participants were asked to comment on barriers to engaging faith-based leaders in HIV prevention and were asked to provide normative recommendations for how African American faith institutions can enhance HIV/AIDS prevention and reduce racial disparities in HIV infection. Many faith leaders cited lack of knowledge about Philadelphia's racial disparities in HIV infection as a common reason for not previously engaging in HIV programs; others noted their congregations' existing HIV prevention and outreach programs and shared lessons learned. Barriers to engaging the faith community in HIV prevention included: concerns about tacitly endorsing extramarital sex by promoting condom use, lack of educational information appropriate for a faith-based audience, and fear of losing congregants and revenue as a result of discussing human sexuality and HIV/AIDS from the pulpit. However, many leaders expressed a moral imperative to respond to the AIDS epidemic, and believed clergy should play a greater role in HIV prevention. Many participants noted that controversy surrounding homosexuality has historically divided the faith community and prohibited an appropriate response to the epidemic; many expressed interest in balancing traditional theology with practical public health approaches to HIV prevention. Leaders suggested the faith community should: promote HIV testing, including during or after worship services and in clinical settings; integrate HIV/AIDS topics into health messaging and sermons; couch HIV/AIDS in social justice, human rights and public health language rather than in sexual risk behavior terms; embrace diverse approaches to HIV prevention in their houses of worship; conduct community outreach and host educational sessions for youth; and collaborate on a citywide, interfaith HIV testing and prevention campaign to combat stigma and raise awareness about the African American epidemic. Many African American faith-based leaders are poised to address racial disparities in HIV infection. HIV prevention campaigns should integrate leaders' recommendations for tailoring HIV prevention for a faith-based audience.     

Informing Comprehensive HIV Prevention: A Situational Analysis of the HIV Prevention and Care Context,North West Province South Africa

Objective

Building a successful combination prevention program requires understanding the community’s local epidemiological profile, the social community norms that shape vulnerability to HIV and access to care, and the available community resources. We carried out a situational analysis in order to shape a comprehensive HIV prevention program that address local barriers to care at multiple contextual levels in the North West Province of South Africa.

Method

The situational analysis was conducted in two sub-districts in 2012 and guided by an adaptation of WHO’s Strategic Approach, a predominantly qualitative method, including observation of service delivery points and in-depth interviews and focus groups with local leaders, providers, and community members, in order to recommend context-specific HIV prevention strategies. Analysis began during fieldwork with nightly discussions of findings and continued with coding original textual data from the fieldwork notebooks and a select number of recorded interviews.

Results

We conducted over 200 individual and group interviews and gleaned four principal social barriers to HIV prevention and care, including: HIV fatalism, traditional gender norms, HIV-related stigma, and challenges with communication around HIV, all of which fuel the HIV epidemic. At the different levels of response needed to stem the epidemic, we found evidence of national policies and programs that are mitigating the social risk factors but little community-based responses that address social risk factors to HIV.

Conclusions

Understanding social and structural barriers to care helped shape our comprehensive HIV prevention program, which address the four ‘themes’ identified into each component of the program. Activities are underway to engage communities, offer community-based testing in high transmission areas, community stigma reduction, and a positive health, dignity and prevention program for stigma reduction and improve communication skills. The situational analysis process successfully shaped key programmatic decisions and cultivated a deeper collaboration with local stakeholders to support program implementation.     

Willingness to Participate in HIV Vaccine Trials among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Chennai and Mumbai, India: A Social Ecological Approach

Background

Recruitment of low- and middle-income country volunteers from most-at-risk populations in HIV vaccine trials is essential to vaccine development. In India, men who have sex with men (MSM) are at disproportionately high risk for HIV infection and an important population for trial recruitment. Investigations of willingness to participate (WTP) in HIV vaccine trials have focused predominantly on individual-level determinants. We explored multi-level factors associated with WTP among MSM in India.

Methods

We conducted 12 focus groups (n = 68) with low socioeconomic MSM in Chennai and Mumbai, and 14 key informant interviews with MSM community leaders and service providers. Focus groups/interviews were recorded, transcribed and translated into English. Two bilingual investigators conducted thematic analysis using line-by-line coding and a constant comparative method, with member-checking by community representatives.

Results

Factors associated with WTP were evidenced across the social ecology of MSM–social-structural: poverty, HIV-, sexual- and gender non-conformity stigma, institutionalized discrimination and government sponsorship of trials; community-level: endorsement by MSM community leaders and organizations, and fear of within-group discrimination; interpersonal: anticipated family discord, partner rejection, having financially-dependent family members and disclosure of same-sex sexuality; and individual-level: HIV vaccine trial knowledge and misconceptions, safety concerns, altruism and preventive misconception.

Conclusion

Pervasive familial, community and social-structural factors characteristic of the Indian sociocultural context may complicate individual-focused approaches to WTP and thereby constrain the effectiveness of interventions to support recruitment and retention in HIV vaccine trials. Interventions to reduce stigma and discrimination against MSM and people living with HIV, capacity-building of MSM community organizations and transparent communications tailored to the knowledge and educational level of local communities may support meaningful engagement of MSM in HIV vaccine trials. Vigilance in providing fair but not excessive compensation and healthcare benefits and in mitigating preventive misconception are warranted to support ethical conduct of trials among MSM in India.     

Rapid establishment of a frontline field laboratory in response to an imported outbreak of Ebola virus disease in western Uganda,June 2019

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declared an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu in August 2018. By June 2019, the outbreak had spread to 26 health zones in northeastern DRC, causing >2,000 reported cases and >1,000 deaths. On June 10, 2019, three members of a Congolese family with EVD-like symptoms traveled to western Uganda’s Kasese District to seek medical care. Shortly thereafter, the Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Surveillance and Laboratory Program (VHF program) at the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI) confirmed that all three patients had EVD. The Ugandan Ministry of Health declared an outbreak of EVD in Uganda’s Kasese District, notified the World Health Organization, and initiated a rapid response to contain the outbreak. As part of this response, UVRI and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with the support of Uganda’s Public Health Emergency Operations Center, the Kasese District Health Team, the Superintendent of Bwera General Hospital, the United States Department of Defense’s Makerere University Walter Reed Project, and the United States Mission to Kampala’s Global Health Security Technical Working Group, jointly established an Ebola Field Laboratory in Kasese District at Bwera General Hospital, proximal to an Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU). The laboratory consisted of a rapid containment kit for viral inactivation of patient specimens and a GeneXpert Instrument for performing Xpert Ebola assays. Laboratory staff tested 76 specimens from alert and suspect cases of EVD; the majority were admitted to the ETU (89.3%) and reported recent travel to the DRC (58.9%). Although no EVD cases were detected by the field laboratory, it played an important role in patient management and epidemiological surveillance by providing diagnostic results in <3 hours. The integration of the field laboratory into Uganda’s National VHF Program also enabled patient specimens to be referred to Entebbe for confirmatory EBOV testing and testing for other hemorrhagic fever viruses that circulate in Uganda.     

Detecting behavioural changes in human movement to inform the spatial scale of interventions against COVID-19

On March 23 2020, the UK enacted an intensive, nationwide lockdown to mitigate transmission of COVID-19. As restrictions began to ease, more localized interventions were used to target resurgences in transmission. Understanding the spatial scale of networks of human interaction, and how these networks change over time, is critical to targeting interventions at the most at-risk areas without unnecessarily restricting areas at low risk of resurgence. We use detailed human mobility data aggregated from Facebook users to determine how the spatially-explicit network of movements changed before and during the lockdown period, in response to the easing of restrictions, and to the introduction of locally-targeted interventions. We also apply community detection techniques to the weighted, directed network of movements to identify geographically-explicit movement communities and measure the evolution of these community structures through time. We found that the mobility network became more sparse and the number of mobility communities decreased under the national lockdown, a change that disproportionately affected long distance connections central to the mobility network. We also found that the community structure of areas in which locally-targeted interventions were implemented following epidemic resurgence did not show reorganization of community structure but did show small decreases in indicators of travel outside of local areas. We propose that communities detected using Facebook or other mobility data be used to assess the impact of spatially-targeted restrictions and may inform policymakers about the spatial extent of human movement patterns in the UK. These data are available in near real-time, allowing quantification of changes in the distribution of the population across the UK, as well as changes in travel patterns to inform our understanding of the impact of geographically-targeted interventions.     

Discrimination against gay,lesbian and bisexual family physicians by patients

BACKGROUND: Discrimination against gay, lesbian and bisexual (GLB) patients by physicians is well known. Discrimination against GLB physicians by their colleagues and superiors is also well known and includes harassment, denial of positions and refusal to refer patients to them. The purpose of this study was to identify and quantify the attitudes of patients toward GLB physicians. METHODS: Telephone interviews were conducted with 500 randomly selected people living in a large urban Canadian city. Subjects were asked if they would refuse to see a GLB family physician and, if so, to describe the reason why. They were then given a choice of 6 reasons obtained from consultation with 10 GLB people and 10 heterosexual people. RESULTS: Of the 500 subjects 346 (69.2%) were reached and agreed to participate. Of the 346 respondents 41 (11.8%) stated that they would refuse to see a GLB family physician. The 2 most common reasons for the discrimination (prevalence rate more than 50%) were that GLB physicians would be incompetent and the respondent would feel "uncomfortable" having a GLB physician. Although more male than female respondents discriminated against GLB physicians, the difference was not statistically significant. The proportion of male and female respondents who discriminated increased with age (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The observed prevalence of patient discrimination against GLB family physicians is significant. The results suggest that the discrimination is based on emotional reasons and is not related to such factors as misinformation about STDs and fear of being thought of sexually. Therefore, educational efforts should be directed against general perceptions of homosexuality rather than targeting specific medical concerns.     

A Survey of UK Healthcare Workers’ Attitudes on Volunteering to Help with the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

Objective

To understand the barriers and enablers for UK healthcare workers who are considering going to work in the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa, but have not yet volunteered.

Design

After focus group discussions, and a pilot questionnaire, an anonymous survey was conducted using SurveyMonkey to determine whether people had considered going to West Africa, what factors might make them more or less likely to volunteer, and whether any of these were modifiable factors.

Participants

The survey was publicised among doctors, nurses, laboratory staff and allied health professionals. 3109 people answered the survey, of whom 472 (15%) were considering going to work in the epidemic but had not yet volunteered. 1791 (57.6%) had not considered going, 704 (22.6%) had considered going but decided not to, 53 (1.7%) had volunteered to go and 14 (0.45%) had already been and worked in the epidemic.

Results

For those considering going to West Africa, the most important factor preventing them from volunteering was a lack of information to help them decide; fear of getting Ebola and partners’ concerns came next. Uncertainty about their potential role, current work commitments and inability to get agreement from their employer were also important barriers, whereas clarity over training would be an important enabler. In contrast, for those who were not considering going, or who had decided against going, family considerations and partner concerns were the most important factors.

Conclusions

More UK healthcare workers would volunteer to help tackle Ebola in West Africa if there was better information available, including clarity about roles, cover arrangements, and training. This could be achieved with a well-publicised high quality portal of reliable information.     

Qualitative evidence syntheses of attitudes and preferences to inform guidelines on infant feeding in the context of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) transmission risk

BackgroundBreast-feeding holds considerable potential to reduce infant mortality. Feeding choices, already complex, take on additional complexity against a backdrop of the risk of transmissible Ebola Virus. This review describes the factors that influence infant feeding and attitudes of pregnant women, mothers, family members and health practitioners, policy makers and providers (midwives) concerning infant feeding when there is a risk of Mother-to-Child (MTC) transmission of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD).MethodologyA systematic review of qualitative studies identified through rigorous searches of thirteen online databases and additional citation searches of included studies was undertaken. Search terms included breast-feeding, breast-feeding, infant feeding; Ebola; and qualitative, interview(s) and findings. Independent extraction of data by two reviewers using predefined extraction forms. Studies were assessed using the CASP Qualitative checklist.Principal findings5219 references were screened. 38 references related specifically to Ebola, and five papers met the inclusion criteria with data gathered from two settings: Guinea and Sierra Leone. The EVD outbreak had a significant impact on beliefs, attitudes, and resources to support infant feeding practices negatively affecting the nutritional status of children. The evidence from these studies highlight the need for guidance and appropriate psychosocial support need to be available to mothers who display symptoms and become infected and to front-line staff who are giving advice. Communities need to be engaged because stigma and fear may hinder uptake of appropriate interventions. The EVD outbreak caused multi-level system disruption akin to that seen following a natural disaster, meaning that logistics and coordination are critical and need adequate resourcing. Food production and distribution, and malnutrition screening are also disrupted and thereby compounding compromised nutritional status. The limited number of relevant studies highlights the need for further primary research, particularly in translation of messages to local settings.ConclusionsAn EVD outbreak causes multi-level disruption that negatively impacts infant feeding and child care practices. Negative impacts have multiple causes and successful planning for Ebola outbreaks requires that nutrition of infants and young children is a priority. Lessons from the Ebola pandemic have wider applicability to other pandemic contexts including Covid-19.     

Temporal Course of 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Outbreak in West Africa Elucidated through Morbidity and Mortality Data: A Tale of Three Countries

The explosive outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa in 2014 appeared to have lessened in 2015, but potentially continues be a global public health threat. A simple mathematical model, the Richards model, is utilized to gauge the temporal variability in the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa in terms of its reproduction number R and its temporal changes via detection of epidemic waves and turning points during the 2014 outbreaks in the three most severely affected countries; namely, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The results reveal multiple waves of infection in each of these three countries, of varying lengths from a little more than one week to more than one month. All three countries exhibit marginally fluctuating reproduction numbers during June-October before gradually declining. Although high mobility continues between neighboring populations of these countries across the borders, outbreak in these three countries exhibits decidedly different temporal patterns. Guinea had the most waves but maintained consistently low transmissibility and hence has the smallest number of reported cases. Liberia had highest level of transmission before October, but has remained low since, with no detectable wave after the New Year. Sierra Leone has gradually declining waves since October, but still generated detectable waves up to mid-March 2015, and hence has cumulated the largest number of cases—exceeding that of Guinea and Liberia combined. Analysis indicates that, despite massive amount of international relief and intervention efforts, the outbreak is persisting in these regions in waves, albeit more sparsely and at a much lower level since the beginning of 2015.     

Analysis of Enterovirus 68 Strains from the 2014 North American Outbreak Reveals a New Clade,Indicating Viral Evolution

Enterovirus 68 (EVD68) causes respiratory illness, mostly in children. Despite a reported low-level of transmission, the occurrence of several recent outbreaks worldwide including the 2014 outbreak in North America has raised concerns regarding the pathogenesis and evolution of EVD68. To elucidate the phylogenetic features of EVD68 and possible causes for the 2014 outbreak, 216 EVD68 strain sequences were retrieved from Genbank, including 22 from the 2014 outbreak. Several geographic and genotypic origins were established for these 22 strains, 19 of which were classified as Clade B. Of these 19 strains, 17 exhibited subsequent clustering and variation in protein residues involved in host-receptor interaction and/or viral antigenicity. Approximately 18 inter-clade variations were detected in VP1, which led to the identification of a new Clade D in EVD68 strains. The classification of this new clade was also verified by the re-construction of a Neighbor-Joining tree during the phylogenetic analysis. In addition, our results indicate that members of Clade B containing highly specific alterations in VP1 protein residues were the foremost contributors to the 2014 outbreak in the US. Altered host-receptor interaction and/or host immune recognition may explain the evolution of EVD68 as well as the global emergence and ongoing adaptation of this virus.     

Social Consequences of Ebola Containment Measures in Liberia

Introduction

In the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in Liberia, two major emergency disease-control measures were cremation of bodies and enforcement of quarantine for asymptomatic individuals suspected of being in contact with a positive case. Enforced by State-related actors, these were promoted as the only method to curtail transmissions as soon as possible. However, as with other harsh measures witnessed by Liberian citizens, in many cases those measures elicited uncontrolled negative reactions within the communities (stigma; fear) that produced, in some cases, the opposite effect of that intended.

Methodology

The research has been conducted in two phases, for a total of 8 weeks. Ethnography of local practices was carried out in 7 neighbourhoods in Monrovia and 5 villages in Grand Cape Mount County in Liberia. 45 Focus Group Discussions (432 participants) and 30 semi-structured interviews sustained the observing participation. Randomly selected people from different social layers were targeted. The principal investigator worked with the help of two local assistants. Perceptions and practices were both analysed.

Results

Participants stressed how cremation perpetuated the social breakdown that started with the isolation for the sickness. Socio-economical divides were created by inequitable management of the dead: those who could bribe the burial teams obtained a burial in a private cemetery or the use of Funeral Homes. Conversely, those in economic disadvantage were forced to send their dead for cremation. State-enforced quarantine, with a mandatory prohibition of movement, raised condemnation, strengthened stigmatization and created serious socio-economic distress. Food was distributed intermittently and some houses shared latrines with non-quarantined neighbours. Escapes were also recorded. Study participants narrated how they adopted local measures of containment, through local task forces and socially-rooted control of outsiders. They also stressed how information that was not spread built up rumours and suspicion.

Conclusions

Populations experiencing an epidemic feel a high degree of social insecurity, in addition to the health hazards. Vertical and coercive measures increase mistrust and fear, producing a counter-productive effect in the containment of the epidemic. On the other hand, local communities show a will to be engaged and a high degree of flexibility in participating to the epidemic response. Efforts in the direction of awareness and community involvement could prove to be better strategy to control the epidemic and root the response on social participation.     

The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

Background

Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined.

Methods

A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009.

Results

Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks.

Conclusions

Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult travelers. However, as long as adults have at least a moderate potential to trigger an epidemic, selectively restricting the higher risk group (children) may not be a practical option to delay the arrival of an epidemic substantially.     

Successful Control of Ebola Virus Disease: Analysis of Service Based Data from Rural Sierra Leone

IntroductionThe scale and geographical distribution of the current outbreak in West Africa raised doubts as to the effectiveness of established methods of control. Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was first detected in Sierra Leone in May 2014 in Kailahun district. Despite high case numbers elsewhere in the country, transmission was eliminated in the district by December 2014. We describe interventions underpinning successful EVD control in Kailahun and implications for EVD control in other areas.MethodsInternal service data and published reports from response agencies were analysed to describe the structure and type of response activities, EVD case numbers and epidemic characteristics. This included daily national situation reports and District-level data and reports of the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation, and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) patient data and internal epidemiological reports. We used EVD case definitions provided by the World Health Organisation over the course of the outbreak. Characteristics assessed included level of response activities and epidemiological features such as reported exposure (funeral-related or not), time interval between onset of illness and admission to the EVD Management Centre (EMC), work-related exposures (health worker or not) and mortality. We compared these characteristics between two time periods—June to July (the early period of response), and August to December (when coverage and quality of response had improved). A stochastic model was used to predict case numbers per generation with different numbers of beds and a varying percentage of community cases detected.ResultsThere were 652 probable/confirmed EVD cases from June-December 2014 in Kailahun. An EMC providing patient care opened in June. By August 2014 an integrated detection, treatment, and prevention strategy was in place across the district catchment zone. From June-July to August-December 2014 surveillance and contact tracing staff increased from 1.0 to 8.8 per confirmed EVD case, EMC capacity increased from 32 to 100 beds, the number of burial teams doubled, and health promotion activities increased in coverage. These improvements in response were associated with the following changes between the same periods: the proportion of confirmed/probable cases admitted to the EMC increased from 35% to 83% (χ² p-value<0·001), the proportion of confirmed patients admitted to the EMC <3 days of symptom onset increased from 19% to 37% (χ² p-value <0·001), and reported funeral contact in those admitted decreased from 33% to 16% (χ² p-value <0·001). Mathematical modelling confirmed the importance of both patient management capacity and surveillance and contact tracing for EVD control.DiscussionOur findings demonstrate that control of EVD can be achieved using established interventions based on identification and appropriate management of those who are at risk of and develop EVD, including in the context of ongoing transmission in surrounding regions. Key attributes in achieving control were sufficient patient care capacity (including admission to specialist facilities of suspect and probable cases for assessment), integrated with adequate staffing and resourcing of community-based case detection and prevention activities. The response structure and coverage targets we present are of value in informing effective control in current and future EVD outbreaks.     

A Multi-Site Knowledge Attitude and Practice Survey of Ebola Virus Disease in Nigeria

Background

The 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak was characterised by fear, misconceptions and irrational behaviours. We conducted a knowledge attitude and practice survey of EVD in Nigeria to inform implementation of effective control measures.

Methods

Between July 30^th and September 30^th 2014, we undertook a cross sectional study on knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) among adults of the general population and healthcare workers (HCW) in three states of Nigeria, namely Bayelsa, Cross River and Kano states. Demographic information and data on KAP were obtained using a self-administered standardized questionnaire. The percentage KAP scores were categorised as good and poor. Independent predictors of good knowledge of EVD were ascertained using a binary logistic regression model.

Results

Out of 1035 study participants with median age of 32 years, 648 (62.6%) were males, 846 (81.7%) had tertiary education and 441 (42.6%) were HCW. There were 218, 239 and 578 respondents from Bayelsa, Cross River and Kano states respectively. The overall median percentage KAP scores and interquartile ranges (IQR) were 79.46% (15.07%), 95.0% (33.33%) and 49.95% (37.50%) respectively. Out of the 1035 respondents, 470 (45.4%), 544(52.56%) and 252 (24.35%) had good KAP of EVD defined using 80%, 90% and 70% score cut-offs respectively. Independent predictors of good knowledge of EVD were being a HCW (Odds Ratio-OR-2.89, 95% Confidence interval-CI of 1.41–5.90), reporting ‘moderate to high fear of EVD’ (OR-2.15, 95% CI-(1.47–3.13) and ‘willingness to modify habit’ (OR-1.68, 95% CI-1.23–2.30).

Conclusion

Our results reveal suboptimal EVD-related knowledge, attitude and practice among adults in Nigeria. To effectively control future outbreaks of EVD in Nigeria, there is a need to implement public sensitization programmes that improve understanding of EVD and address EVD-related myths and misconceptions, especially among the general population.     

Effects of Mother’s Illness and Breastfeeding on Risk of Ebola Virus Disease in a Cohort of Very Young Children

Background

Young children who contract Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have a high case fatality rate, but their sources of infection and the role of breastfeeding are unclear.

Methods/Principal Findings

Household members of EVD survivors from the Kerry Town Ebola Treatment Centre in Sierra Leone were interviewed four to 10 months after discharge to establish exposure levels for all members of the household, whether or not they became ill, and including those who died. We analysed a cohort of children under three years to examine associations between maternal illness, survival and breastfeeding, and the child’s outcome. Of 77 children aged zero to two years in the households we surveyed, 43% contracted EVD. 64 children and mothers could be linked: 25/40 (63%) of those whose mother had EVD developed EVD, compared to 2/24 (8%) whose mother did not have EVD, relative risk adjusted for age, sex and other exposures (aRR) 7·6, 95%CI 2·0–29·1. Among those with mothers with EVD, the risk of EVD in the child was higher if the mother died (aRR 1·5, 0·99–2·4), but there was no increased risk associated with breast-feeding (aRR 0·75, 0·46–1·2). Excluding those breastfed by infected mothers, half (11/22) of the children with direct contact with EVD cases with wet symptoms (diarrhoea, vomiting or haemorrhage) remained well.

Conclusion/Significance

This is the largest study of mother-child pairs with EVD to date, and the first attempt at assessing excess risk from breastfeeding. For young children the key exposure associated with contracting EVD was mother’s illness with EVD, with a higher risk if the mother died. Breast feeding did not confer any additional risk in this study but high risk from proximity to a sick mother supports WHO recommendations for separation. This study also found that many children did not become ill despite high exposures.