The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate,atmospheric CO2, and land use

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO₂ levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias‐corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land‐use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, land‐use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO₂ fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate‐induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land‐use change and climate‐driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO₂ impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land‐use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO₂ fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.     

Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)

This study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO₂, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also coupled to a fast ‘climate analogue model’, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO₂ content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate‐carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra‐tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO₂ from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels.     

The positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing of increasing methane emissions from a thawing boreal forest‐wetland landscape

At the southern margin of permafrost in North America, climate change causes widespread permafrost thaw. In boreal lowlands, thawing forested permafrost peat plateaus (‘forest’) lead to expansion of permafrost‐free wetlands (‘wetland’). Expanding wetland area with saturated and warmer organic soils is expected to increase landscape methane (CH₄) emissions. Here, we quantify the thaw‐induced increase in CH₄ emissions for a boreal forest‐wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, Canada, and evaluate its impact on net radiative forcing relative to potential long‐term net carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange. Using nested wetland and landscape eddy covariance net CH₄ flux measurements in combination with flux footprint modeling, we find that landscape CH₄ emissions increase with increasing wetland‐to‐forest ratio. Landscape CH₄ emissions are most sensitive to this ratio during peak emission periods, when wetland soils are up to 10 °C warmer than forest soils. The cumulative growing season (May–October) wetland CH₄ emission of ~13 g CH₄ m^?2 is the dominating contribution to the landscape CH₄ emission of ~7 g CH₄ m^?2. In contrast, forest contributions to landscape CH₄ emissions appear to be negligible. The rapid wetland expansion of 0.26 ± 0.05% yr^?1 in this region causes an estimated growing season increase of 0.034 ± 0.007 g CH₄ m^?2 yr^?1 in landscape CH₄ emissions. A long‐term net CO₂ uptake of >200 g CO₂ m^?2 yr^?1 is required to offset the positive radiative forcing of increasing CH₄ emissions until the end of the 21st century as indicated by an atmospheric CH₄ and CO₂ concentration model. However, long‐term apparent carbon accumulation rates in similar boreal forest‐wetland landscapes and eddy covariance landscape net CO₂ flux measurements suggest a long‐term net CO₂ uptake between 49 and 157 g CO₂ m^?2 yr^?1. Thus, thaw‐induced CH₄ emission increases likely exert a positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing through the 21st century.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest–wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw‐induced collapse‐scar bog (‘wetland’) expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape‐scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature‐ and light‐limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest–wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (?20 g C m^?2) and wetland NEE (?24 g C m^?2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND. In contrast, we find non‐negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light‐limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year‐round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^?2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^?2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest–wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.     

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO₂ and CH₄ could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process‐based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS‐TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water‐table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO₂ emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.     

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5° (latitude × longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960–2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991–2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041–2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5–5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long‐term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics.     

An integrated approach to improving fossil fuel emissions scenarios with urban ecosystem studies

The future trajectory of fossil fuel emissions is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting climate change. While global emissions scenarios are ultimately of interest for climate modeling, many of the factors that influence energy and fuel consumption operate on a local rather than global level. However, there have been relatively few comprehensive studies of the ecological and socioeconomic processes that will determine the future trajectory of net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at local and regional scales. We conducted an interdisciplinary, whole ecosystem study of the role of climate, urban expansion, urban form, transportation, and the urban forest in influencing net CO₂ emissions in the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, a rapidly urbanizing region in the western U.S. Our approach involved a detailed emissions inventory validated with atmospheric measurements, as well as a system dynamics model of future CO₂ emissions developed in collaboration with local stakeholders. The model highlighted the importance of a positive feedback between urban land development and transportation investments that may strongly affect emissions by amplifying declines in developmental densities and increases in vehicular traffic. Simulations suggested that while doubling the density of tree planting would have a negligible effect on total urban CO₂ emissions, land use and transportation policies that dampen the intensity of the urban sprawl feedback could result in a 22% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 relative to a business as usual scenario. We suggest that by advancing our mechanistic understanding of energy and fuel consumption regionally, this urban ecosystem approach has great potential for improving emissions scenario studies if replicated in other cities and urbanizing regions.     

Gross primary production controls the subsequent winter CO2 exchange in a boreal peatland

In high‐latitude regions, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions during the winter represent an important component of the annual ecosystem carbon budget; however, the mechanisms that control the winter CO₂ emissions are currently not well understood. It has been suggested that substrate availability from soil labile carbon pools is a main driver of winter CO₂ emissions. In ecosystems that are dominated by annual herbaceous plants, much of the biomass produced during the summer is likely to contribute to the soil labile carbon pool through litter fall and root senescence in the autumn. Thus, the summer carbon uptake in the ecosystem may have a significant influence on the subsequent winter CO₂ emissions. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a plot‐scale shading experiment in a boreal peatland to reduce the gross primary production (GPP) during the growing season. At the growing season peak, vascular plant biomass in the shaded plots was half that in the control plots. During the subsequent winter, the mean CO₂ emission rates were 21% lower in the shaded plots than in the control plots. In addition, long‐term (2001–2012) eddy covariance data from the same site showed a strong correlation between the GPP (particularly the late summer and autumn GPP) and the subsequent winter net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE). In contrast, abiotic factors during the winter could not explain the interannual variation in the cumulative winter NEE. Our study demonstrates the presence of a cross‐seasonal link between the growing season biotic processes and winter CO₂ emissions, which has important implications for predicting winter CO₂ emission dynamics in response to future climate change.     

Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land‐use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO₂. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio‐temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO₂ increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio‐economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO₂ fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought‐induced forest mortality (?20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (?40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin‐wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.     

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco), net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE; R_eco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH₄) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km² flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO₂-C year⁻¹. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH₄ emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH₄) were estimated at 35 Tg CH₄-C year⁻¹. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.     

Organic mound-building ants: their impact on soil properties in temperate and boreal forests

Ants are important components of most soil invertebrate communities, and can affect the flow of energy, nutrients and water through many terrestrial ecosystems. The vast majority of ant species build nests in the mineral soil, but a small group of ants in temperate and boreal forests of Eurasia and North America build large parts of their nests above‐ground using organic materials collected from the surrounding soil. Many studies have shown that ants nesting in mineral soil can affect water infiltration rates, soil organic matter (OM) content, and nutrient cycling, but much less is known on how mound‐building ants influence soil physical and chemical properties. In this paper we summarize what is known on the soil impacts of organic mound‐building ants in temperate and boreal forests, and how these ants could be affected by ecosystem disturbance and future climate change. Much of this information comes from studies on Formica rufa group ants in Europe, which showed that CO₂ emissions and concentrations of C, N, and P are usually higher in ant mounds than in the surrounding forest soil. However, ant mounds are a minor component of total soil C and nutrient pools, but they do increase spatial heterogeneity of soil water and available nutrients. Mound‐building ants can also impact tree growth, which could change the quantity and quality of OM added to soil. Forest management, fire, and projected climate change, especially in boreal forests, could affect mound‐building ant population dynamics, and indirectly, soil properties.     

Fluvial CO2 and CH4 patterns across wildfire‐disturbed ecozones of subarctic Canada: Current status and implications for future change

Despite occupying a small fraction of the landscape, fluvial networks are disproportionately large emitters of CO₂ and CH₄, with the potential to offset terrestrial carbon sinks. Yet the extent of this offset remains uncertain, because current estimates of fluvial emissions often do not integrate beyond individual river reaches and over the entire fluvial network in complex landscapes. Here we studied broad patterns of concentrations and isotopic signatures of CO₂ and CH₄ in 50 streams in the western boreal biome of Canada, across an area of 250,000 km². Our study watersheds differ starkly in their geology (sedimentary and shield), permafrost extent (sporadic to extensive discontinuous) and land cover (large variability in lake and wetland extents). We also investigated the effect of wildfire, as half of our study streams drained watersheds affected by megafires that occurred 3 years prior. Similar to other boreal regions, we found that stream CO₂ concentrations were primarily associated with greater terrestrial productivity and warmer climates, and decreased downstream within the fluvial network. No effects of recent wildfire, bedrock geology or land cover composition were found. The isotopic signatures suggested dominance of biogenic CO₂ sources, despite dominant carbonate bedrock in parts of the study region. Fluvial CH₄ concentrations had a high variability which could not be explained by any landscape factors. Estimated fluvial CO₂ emissions were 0.63 (0.09–6.06, 95% CI) and 0.29 (0.17–0.44, 95% CI) g C m^?2 year^?1 at the landscape scale using a stream network modelling and a mass balance approach, respectively, a small but potentially important component of the landscape C balance. These fluvial CO₂ emissions are lower than in other northern regions, likely due to a drier climate. Overall, our study suggests that fluvial CO₂ emissions are unlikely to be sensitive to altered fire regimes, but that warming and permafrost thaw will increase emissions significantly.     

The effect of fire on microbial biomass: a meta-analysis of field studies

Soil microbes regulate the transfer of carbon (C) from ecosystems to the atmosphere and in doing so influence feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and global climate change. Fire is one element of global change that may influence soil microbial communities and, in turn, their contribution to the C dynamics of ecosystems. In order to improve our understanding of how fire influences belowground communities, we conducted a meta-analysis of 42 published microbial responses to fire. We hypothesized that microbial biomass as a whole, and fungal biomass specifically, would be altered following fires. Across all studies, fire reduced microbial abundance by an average of 33.2% and fungal abundance by an average of 47.6%. However, microbial responses to fire differed significantly among biomes and fire types. For example, microbial biomass declined following fires in boreal and temperate forests but not following grasslands fires. In addition, wildfires lead to a greater reduction in microbial biomass than prescribed burns. These differences are likely attributable to differences in fire severity among biomes and fire types. Changes in microbial abundance were significantly correlated with changes in soil CO₂ emissions. Altogether, these results suggest that fires may significantly decrease microbial abundance, with corresponding consequences for soil CO₂ emissions.     

The impact of extensive planting of Miscanthus as an energy crop on future CO2 atmospheric concentrations

A process‐based model of the energy crop Miscanthus×giganteus is integrated into the global climate impact model IMOGEN, simulating the potential of large‐scale Miscanthus plantation to offset fossil fuel emissions during the 21st century. This simulation produces spatially explicit, annual projections of Miscanthus yields from the present day to the year 2100 under an SRES A2 anthropogenic emissions scenario and includes the effects of climate change. IMOGEN also simulates natural vegetation and soil carbon storage throughout the 21st century. The benefit of Miscanthus cultivation (avoiding fossil fuel emissions of CO₂) is then compared with the cost of displacing natural vegetation (carbon emissions from vegetation and soil). The time taken for these effects to cancel out, the pay‐back time, is calculated regionally. The effects of large‐scale Miscanthus plantation are then integrated globally to produce an estimate of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations throughout the 21st century. Our best estimate of the pay‐back time for Miscanthus plantation is 30 years. We project a maximum possible reduction in atmospheric CO₂ of 323 ppmv by the end of 21st century, with a reduction of 162 ppmv corresponding to the best estimate scenario.     

Increased high‐latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO₂) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010–2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO₂ uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO₂ balance. Eddy covariance CO₂ flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO₂ exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO₂ exchange in the fall. The net CO₂ exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO₂ exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon–climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO₂ dynamics in the northern high latitudes.     

The disappearance of relict permafrost in boreal north America: Effects on peatland carbon storage and fluxes

Boreal peatlands in Canada have harbored relict permafrost since the Little Ice Age due to the strong insulating properties of peat. Ongoing climate change has triggered widespread degradation of localized permafrost in peatlands across continental Canada. Here, we explore the influence of differing permafrost regimes (bogs with no surface permafrost, localized permafrost features with surface permafrost, and internal lawns representing areas of permafrost degradation) on rates of peat accumulation at the southernmost limit of permafrost in continental Canada. Net organic matter accumulation generally was greater in unfrozen bogs and internal lawns than in the permafrost landforms, suggesting that surface permafrost inhibits peat accumulation and that degradation of surface permafrost stimulates net carbon storage in peatlands. To determine whether differences in substrate quality across permafrost regimes control trace gas emissions to the atmosphere, we used a reciprocal transplant study to experimentally evaluate environmental versus substrate controls on carbon emissions from bog, internal lawn, and permafrost peat. Emissions of CO₂ were highest from peat incubated in the localized permafrost feature, suggesting that slow organic matter accumulation rates are due, at least in part, to rapid decomposition in surface permafrost peat. Emissions of CH₄ were greatest from peat incubated in the internal lawn, regardless of peat type. Localized permafrost features in peatlands represent relict surface permafrost in disequilibrium with the current climate of boreal North America, and therefore are extremely sensitive to ongoing and future climate change. Our results suggest that the loss of surface permafrost in peatlands increases net carbon storage as peat, though in terms of radiative forcing, increased CH₄ emissions to the atmosphere will partially or even completely offset this enhanced peatland carbon sink for at least 70 years following permafrost degradation.     

2020-2050年CO2施肥效应促进全球陆地生态系统碳吸收

CO₂施肥效应是全球变绿的主要原因,随着大气中CO₂浓度的持续增加,预估未来气候变化条件下,CO₂施肥效应对陆地生态系统的影响对减缓全球气候变化具有重大意义。基于未来气候情景数据和Farquhar模型,并结合生态过程模型BEPS(Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator),定量化研究2020—2050年CO₂施肥效应对全球叶面积指数(LAI)和总初级生产力(GPP)的影响。研究结果显示2020—2050年,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下,CO₂施肥效应导致的LAI年际变化趋势分别为0.002、0.003和0.005 m^-2m^-2a^-1;三个气候情景下CO₂施肥效应对LAI的影响为CO₂每增加0.1%,LAI平均增加约8.1%—9.2%,由此导致GPP对应增加7.9%—14.6%;由CO₂施...     

Terrestrial nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions at the global scale

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO₂ fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001–2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr⁻¹ (1.9 Pg C yr⁻¹), of which 10 Tg N yr⁻¹ (0.2 Pg C yr⁻¹) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO₂ fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen–carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO₂ in the atmosphere. However, increases of N₂O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr⁻¹ per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.     

Linking forest fires to lake metabolism and carbon dioxide emissions in the boreal region of Northern Québec

Natural fires annually decimate up to 1% of the forested area in the boreal region of Québec, and represent a major structuring force in the region, creating a mosaic of watersheds characterized by large variations in vegetation structure and composition. Here, we investigate the possible connections between this fire‐induced watershed heterogeneity and lake metabolism and CO₂ dynamics. Plankton respiration, and water–air CO₂ fluxes were measured in the epilimnia of 50 lakes, selected to lie within distinct watershed types in terms of postfire terrestrial succession in the boreal region of Northern Québec. Plankton respiration varied widely among lakes (from 21 to 211 μg C L^?1 day^?1), was negatively related to lake area, and positively related to dissolved organic carbon (DOC). All lakes were supersaturated in CO₂ and the resulting carbon (C) flux to the atmosphere (150 to over 3000 mg C m² day^?1) was negatively related to lake area and positively to DOC concentration. CO₂ fluxes were positively related to integrated water column respiration, suggesting a biological component in this flux. Both respiration and CO₂ fluxes were strongly negatively related to years after the last fire in the basin, such that lakes in recently burnt basins had significantly higher C emissions, even after the influence of lake size was removed. No significant differences were found in nutrients, chlorophyll, and DOC between lakes in different basin types, suggesting that the fire‐induced watershed features influence other, more subtle aspects, such as the quality of the organic C reaching lakes. The fire‐induced enhancement of lake organic C mineralization and C emissions represents a long‐term impact that increases the overall C loss from the landscape as the result of fire, but which has never been included in current regional C budgets and future projections. The need to account for this additional fire‐induced C loss becomes critical in the face of predictions of increasing incidence of fire in the circumboreal landscape.