Phytoplankton chlorophyte structure as related to ENSO events in a saline lowland river (Salado River,Buenos Aires,Argentina)

We analyzed the phytoplankton present in the lower sector of the Salado River (Buenos Aires, Argentina) for 10 years (1995–2005) and detected significant changes occurring in chlorophyte abundance and species richness during La Niña event (1998–1999), which period was analyzed throughout the entire basin (main stream and tributaries). We compared the physicochemical and biologic variables between two El Niño–La Niña–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periods – El Niño (March 1997–January 1998) and La Niña (May 1998–May 1999) – to identify possible indicators of a relationship between climatic anomalies and chlorophyte performance. Chlorophyte density increased during the La Niña. Under normal or extreme hydrologic conditions, mobile (Chlamydomonas spp.) and nonmobile (Monoraphidium spp.) chlorophytes codominated. These species belonged to Reynolds's functional groups X1 and X2, those typical of nutrient‐enriched environments. Comparative analyses between El Niño and La Niña periods indicated significant differences in physicochemical (K⁺, dissolved polyphenols, particulate reactive phosphorus, alkalinity, pH) and biologic (species diversity and richness, phytoplankton and chlorophyte total densities) variables between the two periods at all basin sites. During the La Niña condition, species richness was greater owing to interconnected shallow lakes and drainage‐channel inputs, while the Shannon diversity index was lower because of the high abundance values of Monoraphidium minutum. A detailed analysis of the chlorophytes in the entire basin, indicated that changes in density and species dominance occurred on a regional scale although diverse chlorophyte assemblages were identified in the different sectors of the Salado River basin. After La Niña event, the entire basin had the potential to revert to the previous density values, showing the resilience to global environmental changes and the ability to reestablish the general conditions of stability.     

El Niño impacts on human-modified tropical forests: Consequences for dung beetle diversity and associated ecological processes

Our knowledge of how tropical forest biodiversity and functioning respond to anthropogenic and climate-associated stressors is limited. Research exploring El Niño impacts are scarce or based on single post-disturbance assessments, and few studies assess forests previously affected by anthropogenic disturbance. Focusing on dung beetles and associated ecological functions, we assessed (a) the ecological effects of a strong El Niño, (b) if post-El Niño beetle responses were influenced by previous forest disturbance, and (c) how these responses compare between forests impacted only by drought and those affected by both drought and fires. We sampled 30 Amazonian forest plots distributed across a gradient of human disturbance in 2010, 2016, and 2017—approximately 5 years before, and 3–6 and 15–18 months after the 2015–16 El Niño. We found 14,451 beetles from 98 species and quantified the beetle-mediated dispersal of >8,600 seed mimics and the removal of c. 30 kg of dung. All dung beetle responses (species richness, abundance, biomass, compositional similarity to pre-El Niño condition, and rates of dung removal and seed dispersal) declined after the 2015–16 El Niño, but the greatest immediate losses (i.e., in 2016) were observed within fire-affected forests. Previous forest disturbance also influenced post-El Niño dung beetle species richness, abundance, and species composition. We demonstrate that dung beetles and their ecological functions are negatively affected by climate-associated disturbances in human-modified Amazonian forests and suggest that the interaction between local anthropogenic and climate-related stressors merits further investigation.     

Moisture status during a strong El Niño explains a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit

Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots. Climatic predictor variables include (1) total rainfall, (2) mean relative humidity, and (3) mean temperature representing non-El Niño periods and a strong El Niño drought. Habitat models explained species composition within the cloud forest with non-El Niño rainfall; however, the ecotone at the cloud forest’s upper limit was modeled with relative humidity during a strong El Niño drought and secondarily with non-El Niño rainfall. This forest ecotone may be particularly responsive to strong, short-duration climate variability because taxa here, particularly the isohydric dominant Metrosideros polymorpha, are near their physiological limits. Overall, this study demonstrates moisture’s overarching influence on a tropical montane ecosystem, and suggests that short-term climate events affecting moisture status are particularly relevant at tropical ecotones. This study further suggests that predicting the consequences of climate change here, and perhaps in other tropical montane settings, will rely on the skill and certainty around future climate models of regional rainfall, relative humidity, and El Niño.     

Responses of foraminiferal assemblages to ENSO climate patterns on bank reefs of northern Bahia,Brazil: A 17-year record

Benthic Foraminifera were assessed in Rose Bengal-stained sediment samples collected annually from 1995 to 2011 at four shallow bank reefs in Northern Bahia (Brazil). The assemblage was represented by 284 species and 88 genera, the most diverse genera being Quinqueloculina (46 spp.), Triloculina (24 spp.), Articulina (13 spp.), Textularia (11 spp.), and Elphidium (10 spp.). Significant differences in densities of live foraminifers in the sediments were observed among years, though not between reefs. Mean densities and diversities declined by ∼90% during the 1997–8 El Niño event compared with the two previous years, then rebounded during the strong La Niña years of 1999–2000, with rapid recovery of populations of small, heterotrophic foraminifers in the assemblage. After 2000, mean densities and diversities fluctuated, with lows following both the 2006–7 and 2009–10 weak El Niño events, but not so pronounced as during the 1997–8 event. Multivariate analysis clearly formed four separate groupings representing strong (hot, dry) and weak El Niño (dry) years, “normal” years, and strong La Niña (high rainfall) years. The FoRAM Index (FI), which is a single-metric index for water quality associated with reef accretion, provided additional insights into assemblage responses. The FI compares relative abundances of three functional groups of benthic foraminifers: characteristic reef-dwelling larger foraminifers that host algal endosymbionts, the ubiquitous heterotrophic smaller taxa, and specifically stress-tolerant heterotrophic taxa. The striking decline in overall densities during El Niño years likely reflects reduced food supply for the heterotrophic taxa, associated with higher temperatures and reduced runoff. Decline in the taxa that host algal symbionts is consistent with reports of extensive coral bleaching, likely related to photo-oxidative stress caused by higher temperatures and increased water transparency. The significant changes in assemblage structure and composition recorded during this 17-year study demonstrate the major influence of climatic variability associated with the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation.     

Interannual and interdecadal variation in California Current zooplankton: Calanus in the late 1950s and early 1990s

Samples from the southern California sector of the California Current System were examined to test for interannual changes in winter–spring abundance of the planktonic copepod, Calanus pacificus, coincident with the 1992–93 and 1958–59 El Niños, each evaluated relative to immediately preceding years, and for interdecadal change (the early 1990s relative to the late 1950s). Calanus was anomalously rare in both of the El Niño periods, as was macrozooplankton, but (unlike macrozooplanktonic biomass) was not rarer in the early 1990s than in the late 1950s. The El Niño anomalies in Calanus’s abundance and macrozooplanktonic biomass were not spatially correlated on the mesoscale, implying that different proximate ecological causes may dominate at this scale.     

Observed relationships between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation,rainfall variability and vegetation and fire history on Halmahera,Maluku, Indonesia

A temporally high‐resolution palynological study of the uppermost section of core MD98‐2180 from Kau Bay, Halmahera, Indonesia, provides a vegetation and fire record covering the last 250 years. The record is compared with the Maluku Rainfall Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern hemisphere winter sea surface temperatures (SST) for the central Pacific Ocean based on instrumental data, as well as reconstructions of the SOI and the central Pacific SST and historically recorded El Niño events. The results show that significant El Niño events are generally associated with increased representation of Dipterocarpaceae pollen, probably reflecting the mass‐flowering of this taxon during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts, and elevated charcoal levels, reflecting a greater incidence of fires during these extremely dry periods, while humid phases show increased fern numbers. Our findings demonstrate that pollen records ‘ecological’ in scale can provide useful additional proxy records of ENSO events.     

Monitoring and predictive mapping of floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient in ENSO's terrestrial core region,NW Peru

The tropical dry forests of NW Peru are heavily shaped by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where especially El Niño brings rain to arid to semi-arid areas. However, the resulting effects on biodiversity patterns remain largely unknown as well as the effect of environmental variables on the floristic composition under varying rainfall patterns. Therefore, we studied the spatio-temporal effects of different ENSO episodes on floristic biodiversity along a climatic gradient ranging from the coastal desert to the Andean foothills. We sampled 50 vegetation plots in four years representing different ENSO episodes. To highlight the spatio-temporal changes in floristic composition and beta diversity across ENSO episodes, we predicted ordination scores with a Generalized Additive Model. We applied variation partitioning to test if topographic or edaphic variables gained in importance during more humid ENSO episodes. Additionally, we executed an irrigation–fertilization experiment to quantify the beneficial effects of the water–nutrient interaction under different simulated ENSO rainfall scenarios. Plant species richness increased under humid conditions during the humid La Niña (2012) and the moderate El Niño (2016), and slightly decreased under the very humid conditions during the coastal El Niño (2017). The spatial prediction revealed that specific vegetation formations became more pronounced with increasing water input, but that a large water surplus led to the disruption of the strict order along the climatic gradient. Edaphic and topographic variables gained in importance with increased water availability (2012 and 2016), however, this effect was not further amplified under very wet conditions (2017). The experiment showed that plant cover under Super Niño conditions was three times higher when fertilized. Overall, our spatial predictions concede detailed insights into spatio-temporal ecosystem dynamics in response to varying rainfall caused by different ENSO episodes while the results of the experiment can support farmers regarding a sustainable agrarian management.     

El Niño,Host Plant Growth,and Migratory Butterfly Abundance in a Changing Climate

In the wet forests of Panama, El Niño typically brings a more prolonged and severe dry season. Interestingly, many trees and lianas that comprise the wet forests increase their productivity as a response to El Niño. Here, we quantify the abundance of migrating Marpesia chiron butterflies over 17 yr and the production of new leaves of their hostplants over 9 yr to test the generality of the El Niño migration syndrome, i.e., whether increased abundance of migrating insects and productivity of their food plants are associated with El Niño and La Niña events. We find that the quantity of M. chiron migrating across the Panama Canal was directly proportional to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of the Pacific Ocean, which characterizes El Niño and La Niña events. We also find that production of new leaves by its larval host trees, namely Brosimum alicastrum, Artocarpus altilis, and Ficus citrifolia, was directly proportional to the SST anomaly, with greater leaf flushing occurring during the period of the annual butterfly migration that followed an El Niño event. Combining these and our previously published results for the migratory butterfly Aphrissa statira and its host lianas, we conclude that dry season rainfall and photosynthetically active radiation can serve as primary drivers of larval food production and insect population outbreaks in Neotropical wet forests, with drier years resulting in enhanced plant productivity and herbivore abundance. Insect populations should closely track changes in both frequency and amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with climate change.     

Warming,drought, and disturbances lead to shifts in functional composition: A millennial-scale analysis for Amazonian and Andean sites

Tropical forests are changing in composition and productivity, probably in response to changes in climate and disturbances. The responses to these multiple environmental drivers, and the mechanisms underlying the changes, remain largely unknown. Here, we use a functional trait approach on timescales of 10,000 years to assess how climate and disturbances influence the community-mean adult height, leaf area, seed mass, and wood density for eight lowland and highland forest landscapes. To do so, we combine data of eight fossil pollen records with functional traits and proxies for climate (temperature, precipitation, and El Niño frequency) and disturbances (fire and general disturbances). We found that temperature and disturbances were the most important drivers of changes in functional composition. Increased water availability (high precipitation and low El Niño frequency) generally led to more acquisitive trait composition (large leaves and soft wood). In lowland forests, warmer climates decreased community-mean height probably because of increased water stress, whereas in highland forests warmer climates increased height probably because of upslope migration of taller species. Disturbance increased the abundance of acquisitive, disturbance-adapted taxa with small seeds for quick colonization of disturbed sites, large leaves for light capture, and soft wood to attain fast height growth. Fire had weak effects on lowland forests but led to more stress-adapted taxa that are tall with fast life cycles and small seeds that can quickly colonize burned sites. Site-specific analyses were largely in line with cross-site analyses, except for varying site-level effects of El Niño frequency and fire activity, possibly because regional patterns in El Niño are not a good predictor of local changes, and charcoal abundances do not reflect fire intensity or severity. With future global changes, tropical Amazonian and Andean forests may transition toward shorter, drought- and disturbance-adapted forests in the lowlands but taller forests in the highlands.     

The effects of El Niño–La Niña on reproductive parameters of elephant seals feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea

Aim To assess the impacts of El Niño–La Niña events on the pup weaning mass and diet of female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) feeding in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, and to understand the ecological processes that drive these impacts. Location Atlantic southern elephant seal weaning mass and diet were measured at King George Island (62º14′ S, 58º30′ W). Feeding areas for pregnant female seals from King George Island are located west of Alexander Island in the Bellingshausen Sea. Methods Data on weaning mass were collected between 1985 and 1994 during the breeding season (September–November). Moulting females were anaesthetized and cephalopod beaks were isolated and identified from stomach contents obtained from stomach lavages. Sea‐surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data for the ‘El Niño 3.4’ geographical region (5º N–5º S, 120º W–170º W) were used to define El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event years (grouped as El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) as well as the strength of each ENSO event year. Using data from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction, temperature, sea ice concentration and atmospheric pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were calculated from March to August, corresponding to the feeding period of pregnant female seals. Results Positive temperature anomalies and negative pressure anomalies in the Bellingshausen Sea were observed during La Niña years and negative temperature anomalies and positive pressure anomalies during El Niño years. These data correlate with sea ice concentration anomalies, which are highly negative during La Niña years and highly positive during El Niño years. Warm temperature conditions in the Bellingshausen Sea during La Niña years are strongly related to both higher weaning mass in elephant seals and to an increase in squid beaks in the stomach contents of females. Main conclusions It is possible that higher elephant seal weaning masses in La Niña years correlate with warmer waters in the Bellingshausen Sea leading to the rapid growth of squid and their more frequent descents to depths frequented by elephant seals. This results in increased predation by pregnant females, leading to a greater mass among weaned pups. This hypothesis may guide future research about interactions between climate and the marine biosphere.     

El Niño,Climate, and Cholera Associations in Piura,Peru, 1991–2001: A Wavelet Analysis

In Peru, it was hypothesized that epidemic cholera in 1991 was linked to El Niño, the warm phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. While previous studies demonstrated an association in 1997–1998, using cross-sectional data, they did not assess the consistency of this relationship across the decade. Thus, how strong or variable an El Niño–cholera relationship was in Peru or whether El Niño triggered epidemic cholera early in the decade remains unknown. In this study, wavelet and mediation analyses were used to characterize temporal patterns among El Niño, local climate variables (rainfall, river discharge, and air temperature), and cholera incidence in Piura, Peru from 1991 to 2001 and to estimate the mediating effects of local climate on El Niño–cholera relationships. The study hypothesis is that El Niño-related connections with cholera in Piura were transient and interconnected via local climate pathways. Overall, our findings provide evidence that a strong El Niño–cholera link, mediated by local hydrology, existed in the latter part of the 1990s but found no evidence of an El Niño association in the earlier part of the decade, suggesting that El Niño may not have precipitated cholera emergence in Piura. Further examinations of cholera epicenters in Peru are recommended to support these results in Piura. For public health planning, the results may improve existing efforts that utilize El Niño monitoring for preparedness during future climate-related extremes in the region.     

Analysis of Four Macroalgal Assemblages along the Pacific Mexican Coast during and after the 1997–98 El Niño

We examined the changes in four intertidal macroalgal assemblages sampled at 3-month intervals during and after the 1997–98 El Niño. The assemblages were analyzed using several numerical analyses (specific richness, H′ diversity) and multivariate techniques (ANOSIM, cluster, and MDS analyses). During El Niño 1997–98, the water temperature in the sampled zone was almost 5°C above the long-term mean. The apparent impact of this factor was greatest in winter–spring 1998. Our results suggest that El Niño influenced the structure of these assemblages in four different ways: (a) El Niño was associated with number of species (lowest in 1998) and H′ diversity, which increased in the winter of 1999, when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was inactive, from 1.2 to 2.3. (b) The average biomass of the macroalgae was significantly greater in the ENSO year (139 g dry weight/m²) than in the non-ENSO year (42 g dry weight/m²) (c) El Niño conditions were associated with a high population abundance of species of tropical affinity, such as Agardhiella tenera (22.05 g dry weight/m² in 1998 versus 0.7 g dry weight/m² in 1999), Amphiroa misakiensis (32 versus 1.1), Caulerpa sertularoides (15.35 versus 0), Padina durvillaei (9.2 versus 0.2), Jania capillacea (4.1 versus 0), and Jania mexicana (1.5 versus 0). In 1999, other species with a more temperate affinity appeared, such as Laurencia pacifica (0.12 versus 8.76 g/m²) and Colpomenia sinuosa (0 versus 4.8). (d) The multivariate techniques showed that differences among the structure of the four assemblages were more evident in 1999. The greatest homogeneity was detected during ENSO winter–spring, which suggests a communitywide change consistent with the El Niño event.     

Preliminary Evidence of the Importance of ENSO in Modifying Food Availability for White‐tailed Deer in a Mexican Tropical Dry Forest1

The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall and its possible effect on availability of food for white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in a tropical dry forest in the Pacific coast of Mexico was studied. From 1977 to 2003 there were three significant El Niño and La Niña events. During El Niño years rainfall decreased during the wet season ( June to October) and increased during the dry season (November to May), with the opposite effect during La Niña years. Plant diversity was monitored in permanent plots during the wet and dry seasons of 1989–1993. The results provide evidence that ENSO events affect deer food availability, particularly in the dry season.     

El Niño and dry season rainfall influence hostplant phenology and an annual butterfly migration from Neotropical wet to dry forests

We censused butterflies flying across the Panama Canal at Barro Colorado Island (BCI) for 16 years and butterfly hostplants for 8 years to address the question: What environmental factors influence the timing and magnitude of migrating Aphrissa statira butterflies? The peak migration date was earlier when the wet season began earlier and when soil moisture content in the dry season preceding the migration was higher. The peak migration date was also positively associated with peak leaf flushing of one hostplant (Callichlamys latifolia) but not another (Xylophragma seemannianum). The quantity of migrants was correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which influenced April soil moisture on BCI and total rainfall in the dry season. Both hostplant species responded to El Niño with greater leaf flushing, and the number of adults deriving from or laying eggs on those new leaves was greatest during El Niño years. The year 1993 was exceptional in that the number of butterflies migrating was lower than predicted by the El Niño event, yet the dry season was unusually wet for an El Niño year as well. Thus, dry season rainfall appears to be a primary driver of larval food production and population outbreaks for A. statira. Understanding how global climate cycles and local weather influence tropical insect migrations improves the predictability of ecological effects of climate change.     

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events on the Distribution of Wintering Raptors

Abstract We report the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the distribution and abundance of 3 raptor species at continental, regional, and landscape scales. We correlated values from the southern oscillation index (SOI), an index of ENSO phase and strength, with Christmas Bird Count data over a 30-year period. We investigated the relationship between the SOI and winter raptor distributions at 3 spatial scales: continental (central United States), regional (TX, USA), and landscape (3 roadside transects within TX). At the continental scale, ENSO events resulted in regional shifts for American kestrel (Falco sparverius), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), and red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) winter abundances. As expected, these shifts were northward during El Niño (warm) winters, and southward for red-tailed hawks and northern harriers during La Niña (cold) winters. Within Texas, northern harrier distributions shifted towards arid west Texas during wet El Niño winters but were restricted to mesic coastal Texas during dry La Niña winters. Red-tailed hawk abundance increased in eastern Texas during La Niña winters responding to cooler than normal temperatures throughout the northern Midwest. Data from local roadside transects over a 3-year period encompassing 2 El Niño winters and one La Niña winter supported the abundance patterns revealed by continental and regional data, and added evidence that fluctuations in winter abundances result from demographic pulses as well as spatial shifts for wintering populations. This study underscores the need for long-term monitoring at both local and regional spatial scales in order to detect changes in continental populations. Short-term or local studies would have erroneously assumed local population declines or increases associated with ENSO events, rather than facultative movements or demographic pulses supported by this study.     

Effects of El Niño-driven environmental variability on black turtle migration to Peruvian foraging grounds

We analyzed sea temperature as an environmental factor, in association with ENSO, affecting the migration of East Pacific black turtle, Chelonia mydas (=Chelonia agassizii Bocourt), to its foraging areas and its feeding ecology at San Andrés, Peru. A 19-year sea turtle landing database (1970–1988) was constructed to associate landing fluctuations with environmental variability represented by the Peruvian Oscillation Index. A positive correlation between them (r = 0.75, P < 0.05) indicated that exceptionally large black turtle landings occurred in San Andrés port during El Niño episodes. Warmer waters (SST 22–28°C) approached near the Peruvian coast during El Niño episodes, thus facilitating black turtle access to this area. Furthermore, during El Niño 1987, large juvenile and adult black turtles, known to be primarily herbivorous, fed mainly on the scyphozoan jellyfish Chrysaora plocamia Péron &; Lesueur, which was very abundant during this event. It is likely that black turtles exploited this resource opportunistically. Inter-annual environmental variability, driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation, has profound consequences for the ecology of the endangered black turtle, which should be considered when evaluating the effects of anthropogenic activities on its population dynamics.     

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation cyclical modulation of macrobenthic community structure in the Humboldt Current ecosystem

Understanding how natural communities confront different types of natural and anthropogenic stressors has gained much more attention as global climate change imposes nearly unpredictable ecosystem states or regimes. In the Humboldt Current ecosystem this seems to be a priority task due to the complex dynamics caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Herein a 17‐year (1991–2007) time‐series data‐set of macrobenthic community structure and environmental parameters from seasonal sampling from four fixed stations off Punta Coloso (23°45’S, 70°28’W northern of Chile) is analyzed. The aim of this study was to assess benthic responses to ENSO‐associated anomalies. nMDS analysis revealed changes in community structure associated to El Niño (1997–1998) and La Niña (1999–2000). From 1991, communities gradually increased in dissimilarity up to 1998 but after 2000 dissimilarity decreased, thus approaching the early community structure in a counterclockwise like direction. This suggested a cyclical pattern throughout time, which was tested with a cyclicity analysis. The test showed a significant correlation between the dissimilarity biotic matrix and a perfect cyclicity model matrix. The finding of a 17‐year cycle in the variation of community structure adds new insights and contrast to previous observations of increments in diversity and alternation of dominant taxa associated to environmental forcing. It needs to be revealed if this cycle forms part of a major decadal oscillation in the benthic subsystem. Nevertheless, this result is in line with the decadal pattern of variability observed for pelagic communities associated to warm and cold phases of ENSO.     

El Niño and related monsoon drought signals in 523-year-long ring width records of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) trees from south India

We present a 523-year (A.D. 1481–2003) tree-ring width index chronology of Teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from Kerala, Southern India, prepared from three forest sites. Dendroclimatological investigations indicate a significant positive relationship between the tree-ring index series and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and related global parameters like the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A higher frequency of occurrence of low tree growth is observed in years of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall (droughts) associated with El Niño since the late 18th century. Prior to that time, many low tree growth years are detected during known El Niño events, probably related to deficient Indian monsoon rainfall. The general relationship between ISMR and El Niño is known to be negative and the spatial correlations between our Kerala tree-ring chronology and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Niño regions follow similar patterns as those for ISMR. This relationship indicates strong ENSO-related monsoon signals in the tree-ring records. These tree-ring chronologies with a high degree of sensitivity to monsoon climate are useful tools to understand the vagaries of monsoon rainfall prior to the period of recorded data.     

The role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the dynamics of a savanna large herbivore population

Our understanding of large‐scale climatic phenomena and dynamics of large herbivore populations comes principally from research in northern regions with temperate, seasonal climate and animal communities with relatively low species diversity. To assess the generality of that perspective, we investigated effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on population dynamics of African buffalo Syncerus caffer inhabiting a semi‐arid savanna with variable rainfall. We used linear and nonlinear‐threshold models to investigate relationships between population parameters and explanatory variables affecting forage conditions (seasonal rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index [SOI]). El Niño‐related droughts in 1982–1983 and 1991–1992 were associated with strongly negative population change, a pattern expected to coincide with a decrease in normally high and constant adult survival. Consistent with that nonlinear pattern, we detected threshold relationships between wet‐season rainfall and population change. Juvenile recruitment was described best by linear relationships with dry‐season. Because ENSO operates primarily through wet‐season rainfall, whereas population dynamics were also related to dry‐season rainfall, SOI did not have the predictive ability of individual weather components.     

El Niño episodes coincide with California moray Gymnothorax mordax settlement around Santa Catalina Island,California

The hypothesis that El Niño events influence the settlement patterns of the California moray Gymnothorax mordax is tested. The pelagic larval duration (PLD) of larval G. mordax is unknown, but studies on leptocephalus of related species suggest that larvae are long‐lived, up to 2 years. Gymnothorax mordax, an elusive predatory species and the only muraenid off the coast of California, is considered abundant in the waters around Catalina Island. Thirty‐three individuals were collected from Two Harbors, Catalina Island, and otoliths were taken to provide estimates of their age. Settlement year for each individual was backcalculated using estimated age from otolith measurements. These ages were then cross referenced with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) developed by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to correlate estimated age of settlement with known El Niño years. Of the 33 individuals collected, 30 settled at Catalina Island during El Niño years. The oldest individual in the data‐set was 22 years old, placing G. mordax as one of the longer‐lived predatory fishes in the system. The present study represents the first account of wild G. mordax ages and suggests that El Niño events have an important role in driving the settlement of recruits towards the northern edge of their range.