Growing biodiverse carbon‐rich forests

Regrowing forests on cleared land is a key strategy to achieve both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation globally. Maximizing these co‐benefits, however, remains theoretically and technically challenging because of the complex relationship between carbon sequestration and biodiversity in forests, the strong influence of climate variability and landscape position on forest development, the large number of restoration strategies possible, and long time‐frames needed to declare success. Through the synthesis of three decades of knowledge on forest dynamics and plant functional traits combined with decision science, we demonstrate that we cannot always maximize carbon sequestration by simply increasing the functional trait diversity of trees planted. The relationships between plant functional diversity, carbon sequestration rates above ground and in the soil are dependent on climate and landscape positions. We show how to manage ‘identities’ and ‘complementarities’ between plant functional traits to achieve systematically maximal cobenefits in various climate and landscape contexts. We provide examples of optimal planting and thinning rules that satisfy this ecological strategy and guide the restoration of forests that are rich in both carbon and plant functional diversity. Our framework provides the first mechanistic approach for generating decision‐makingrules that can be used to manage forests for multiple objectives, and supports joined carbon credit and biodiversity conservation initiatives, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD+. The decision framework can also be linked to species distribution models and socio‐economic models to find restoration solutions that maximize simultaneously biodiversity, carbon stocks, and other ecosystem services across landscapes. Our study provides the foundation for developing and testing cost‐effective and adaptable forest management rules to achieve biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and other socio‐economic co‐benefits under global change.     

A role-type model (rope) and its application in assessing climate change impacts on forest landscapes

Gap-phase replacement is a general phenomenon found in forest ecosystems, worldwide. Different tree species can be expected to produce different sizes of gaps when they die. Species also vary in their regeneration success in gaps of different sizes. In this paper, the gap-phase interactions among tree species in a forest stand are simulated by a role-type stand model called ROPE. By incorporation of environmental effects on tree height, ROPE can simulate forest composition and stand leaf area under different climate conditions. The model was developed for forest ecosystems in northeastern China and was used to simulate the forest landscape structures under current climate conditions and under four climate change scenarios for greenhouse gas related warming. These scenarios were obtained from general circulation models developed by different atmospheric research centers. Korean pinebroadleaf mixed forest and larch forest are the major stand types in the study area under present conditions. Under the four climate change scenarios, Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forest would be expected to occur only on the higher parts of large mountains. Larch forest only would be found north of the study area. Broadleaf forest would become the dominant vegetation over the study area. Use of the Kappa statistic to test for similarity in spatial maps, indicates that each climate change scenario would result in a significant change of forest distributions.Supported by The United States National Science Foundation Grant BSR-8702333 to University of Virginia.     

Carbon debt repayment or carbon sequestration parity? Lessons from a forest bioenergy case study in Ontario,Canada

Forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with energy production. We assessed changes in GHG emissions resulting from displacement of coal with wood pellets for the Atikokan Generating Station located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Two contrasting biomass sources were considered for continuous wood pellet production: harvest residue from current harvest operations (residue scenario) and fibre from expanded harvest of standing live trees (stemwood scenario). For the stemwood scenario, two metrics were used to assess the effects of displacing coal with forest biomass on GHG emissions: (i) time to carbon sequestration parity, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in regenerating forest equalled the amount of forest carbon without harvest for energy production; and (ii) time to carbon debt repayment, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in the regenerating forest equalled forest carbon at the time of harvest. Only time to carbon sequestration parity was used for the residue scenario. In the residue scenario, carbon sequestration parity was achieved within 1 year. In the stemwood scenario, times to carbon sequestration parity and carbon debt repayment were 91 and 112 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were robust when parameter values were varied. Modelling experiments showed that increasing growth rates for regenerating stands in the stemwood scenario could substantially reduce time to carbon sequestration parity. We discuss the use of the two metrics (time to carbon sequestration parity and time to carbon debt repayment) for assessing the effects of forest bioenergy projects on GHG emissions and make recommendations on terminology and methodologies for forest bioenergy studies.     

气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

Trade‐offs between carbon stocks and biodiversity in European temperate forests

Policies to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss often assume that protecting carbon‐rich forests provides co‐benefits in terms of biodiversity, due to the spatial congruence of carbon stocks and biodiversity at biogeographic scales. However, it remains unclear whether this holds at the scales relevant for management, and particularly large knowledge gaps exist for temperate forests and for taxa other than trees. We built a comprehensive dataset of Central European temperate forest structure and multi‐taxonomic diversity (beetles, birds, bryophytes, fungi, lichens, and plants) across 352 plots. We used Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to assess the relationship between above‐ground live carbon stocks and (a) taxon‐specific richness, (b) a unified multidiversity index. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa ANalysis to explore individual species’ responses to changing above‐ground carbon stocks and to detect change‐points in species composition along the carbon‐stock gradient. Our results reveal an overall weak and highly variable relationship between richness and carbon stock at the stand scale, both for individual taxonomic groups and for multidiversity. Similarly, the proportion of win‐win and trade‐off species (i.e., species favored or disadvantaged by increasing carbon stock, respectively) varied substantially across taxa. Win‐win species gradually replaced trade‐off species with increasing carbon, without clear thresholds along the above‐ground carbon gradient, suggesting that community‐level surrogates (e.g., richness) might fail to detect critical changes in biodiversity. Collectively, our analyses highlight that leveraging co‐benefits between carbon and biodiversity in temperate forest may require stand‐scale management that prioritizes either biodiversity or carbon in order to maximize co‐benefits at broader scales. Importantly, this contrasts with tropical forests, where climate and biodiversity objectives can be integrated at the stand scale, thus highlighting the need for context‐specificity when managing for multiple objectives. Accounting for critical change‐points of target taxa can help to deal with this specificity, by defining a safe operating space to manipulate carbon while avoiding biodiversity losses.     

济南市森林生态系统服务功能的维持机制

森林作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,在维持生物多样性、固碳、水源涵养和木材供应等方面起着不可替代的作用。依据《森林生态系统服务功能评估规范》(LY/T1721—2008),以济南市12个林分类型为研究对象,对济南市森林生态系统服务功能维持机制进行研究,得出济南市年森林生态系统涵养水源、保育土壤、固碳释氧、林木积累营养物质、净化大气环境、生物多样性保护的价值为251.80亿元。其中,涵养水源、固碳释氧、生物多样性保护排在前3位;不同林分类型生态系统服务功能价值量中黑杨类和柏类占绝对优势,而泡桐、落叶松和竹林生态系统服务功能较弱;不同林龄生态系统服务功能价值量以中幼龄林为主;济南市森林生态系统服务功能的维持机制,受到森林资源面积、林龄结构、森林起源以及自然保护区建设等诸多因素的影响。     

Logical Probability and Risk Assessment

A risk assessment is intended to provide a statement of current knowledge which is intended to inform a decision-maker of the current state of knowledge in response to a particular concern. Because answering the concerns of decision-makers often requires inferences to be drawn, doubt often arises over how the inference is to be drawn. In quantitative risk assessment, where a mathematical equation or model is used to draw the inference, this uncertainty is referred to as model uncertainty. A two-step process, which is referred to as logical probability, is proposed as a technique for representing model uncertainty in a risk assessment. The first step involves assigning model weights in which the degree of evidential support for each of the alternative models is considered. The second step involves assigning a unique interval in the range of 0 to 1 for each model which reflects the models' weight, to form a probability distribution. While the second step is straightforward, the first step is not. Assigning model weights requires consideration of any line of evidence that may reasonably impact the validity of the assertion of a model. While the development of a procedure for doing so may be expected to be a process which reflects the subjective preferences of whomever is involved in creating it, there are some historical precedents on which to build. Foremost among these are (1) the use of a correlation coefficient or other goodness-of-fit criteria to measure the degree of correspondence between a given model and a set of observations which are used as evidence to support it, and (2) preference given to models which are simpler, which may be ascertained as the number of adjustable parameters the model contains. Additional principles, which have little or no tradition to stand on, must be used to reflect the impact of other empirically supported beliefs on model preference. The procedure proposed is comparable to the procedure known as decision analysis, in which probabilities are assigned to alternative models based on expert or subjective input. The principal difference in the present case is that it is suggested that principles which transcend the decision at hand should be sought and articulated in order to generate a consistent measure of uncertainty arising from interpretation.     

Management of ecosystem services in mountain forests: Review of indicators and value functions for model based multi-criteria decision analysis

The main ecosystem services (ES) central European mountain forests provide are: protection against gravitational hazards, timber production, recreation, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, which are all in high demand. These demands make managing mountain forests a challenging task, involving manifold synergies and conflicts between the different ES. There is therefore an urgent need for appropriate concepts and tools for support decisions in forest management and planning (FMP) to take into consideration all ES and to manage the wide variety of information types, parameters and uncertainties involved in assessing the sustainability of ES. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a suitable set of methods for sustainability evaluations. In this study sustainability means the persistent fulfilment of the required ES. To address all the phases of the FMP process, MCDA and forest models should be applied together, with indicators providing the main interfaces to combine them. This paper aims to: i) review assessment approaches in order to select appropriate and widely accepted indicators for measuring and assessing the effects of different silvicultural management alternatives on forest ES, and ii) present additional standardisation approaches (value functions) for each indicator. Standardisations are necessary to make the different ES comparable and to study synergies and trade-offs between different management objectives in MCDA. The main ES in central European mountain regions are considered, with a clear focus on those indicators that are directly derivable from forest model outputs and that can refer to sustainable forest management practices. The scales considered are that of the single forest stand and of the larger forest management unit. A holistic indicator-based analysis framework for FMP in mountain forests can be built using the indicators and value functions described. The influence of different management alternatives on ES can then be evaluated, taking into consideration the instruments and information on forest management (forest models, inventory) available. All indicators are selected according to existing and approved approaches that only require data that is normally available in operational forest management. The framework can thus be an important element in developing a decision support system for FMP in mountain forests.     

气候变化、林火和营林措施对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响

生态弹性是森林生态系统在遭受外在扰动后恢复到稳定状态的能力,是森林资源可持续发展的重要目标之一,且森林生态弹性对诸如气候变化、林火和营林措施等外部因子的影响较为敏感.探究这些外部因子对森林生态弹性的影响在未来森林生态系统管理方面有重要意义.本研究首先从森林组成、结构和功能等方面选取指标因子并估算了森林生态弹性值,然后运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化、林火干扰和营林措施等对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响,并探讨了当前抚育采伐方案在未来气候下的可持续性.结果表明: 模型初始化的2000年林分密度和胸高断面积与2000年真实景观较为吻合,模拟的2010年森林景观与野外调查数据无明显差异,基于当前林火干扰状况的模拟结果与火烧迹地调查数据基本匹配,说明林火模块能很好地模拟当前研究区林火发生状况.林火干扰增加30%将会使该区模拟期内景观水平上森林生态弹性提高15.7%～40.8%,而林火干扰增加200%则会降低该区4.4%～24.6%的森林生态弹性.短期和中期林火干扰增加对森林生态弹性的影响大于气候变化的影响.与当前预案相比,B1气候(林火增加30%预案)和A2气候(林火增加200%预案)对整个模拟阶段景观尺度森林生态弹性的影响分别处于-15.9%～38.9%和-60.4%～34.8%范围内.与无采伐预案相比,B1和A2气候下在整个模拟时期内若继续实施当前抚育采伐方案,将不利于景观水平森林生态弹性的提高.在B1气候(林火增加30%预案)下,在各模拟时期内无需实施任何营林措施;而在A2气候(林火增加200%预案)下,建议实施中、高强度种植的营林措施以提升景观水平森林生态弹性.     

Simulating stand climate, phenology, and photosynthesis of a forest stand with a process-based growth model

In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, forest management in Europe is becoming increasingly important. Model simulations can help to understand the reactions and feedbacks of a changing environment on tree growth. In order to simulate forest growth based on future climate change scenarios, we tested the basic processes underlying the growth model BALANCE, simulating stand climate (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and precipitation), tree phenology, and photosynthesis. A mixed stand of 53- to 60-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Southern Germany was used as a reference. The results show that BALANCE is able to realistically simulate air temperature gradients in a forest stand using air temperature measurements above the canopy and PAR regimes at different heights for single trees inside the canopy. Interception as a central variable for water balance of a forest stand was also estimated. Tree phenology, i.e. bud burst and leaf coloring, could be reproduced convincingly. Simulated photosynthesis rates were in accordance with measured values for beech both in the sun and the shade crown. For spruce, however, some discrepancies in the rates were obvious, probably due to changed environmental conditions after bud break. Overall, BALANCE has shown to respond to scenario simulations of a changing environment (e.g., climate change, change of forest stand structure).     

Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land‐use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio‐economic objectives in decision‐making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio‐economic objectives in land‐use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi‐objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision‐makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio‐economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land‐use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio‐economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land‐use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non‐natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.     

ConsNet: new software for the selection of conservation area networks with spatial and multi-criteria analyses

ConsNet is a comprehensive software package for the design of conservation area networks (CANs). The software selects areas to be potentially placed under conservation management for the representation of biodiversity surrogates. Additionally, ConsNet optimizes spatial criteria including compactness, connectivity, replication, and alignment, as well as socio-economic criteria as specified by users. ConsNet uses an advanced tabu search engine to identify efficient alternatives quickly, offering capabilities beyond existing planning software. The ability to perform ongoing interactive analysis with multi-criteria objectives makes ConsNet an ideal decision support tool for large scale planning exercises.     

甘肃省森林碳储量现状与固碳速率

针对森林碳平衡再评估的重要性和区域尺度森林生态系统碳库量化分配的不确定性, 该研究依据全国森林资源连续清查结果中甘肃省各森林类型分布的面积与蓄积比重以及林龄和起源等要素, 在甘肃省布设212个样地, 经野外调查与采样、室内分析, 并对典型样地信息按照面积权重进行尺度扩展, 估算了甘肃省森林生态系统碳储量及其分布特征。结果表明: 甘肃省森林生态系统总碳储量为612.43 Tg C, 其中植被生物量碳为179.04 Tg C, 土壤碳为433.39 Tg C。天然林是甘肃省碳储量的主要贡献者, 其值为501.42 Tg C, 是人工林的4.52倍。天然林和人工林的植被碳密度均表现为随林龄的增加而增加的趋势, 同一龄组天然林植被碳密度高于人工林。天然林土壤碳密度从幼龄林到过熟林逐渐增加, 但人工林土壤碳密度最大值主要为近熟林。全省森林植被碳密度均值为72.43 Mg C·hm^-2, 天然林和人工林分别为90.52和33.79 Mg C·hm^-2。基于森林清查资料和标准样地实测数据, 估算出全省天然林和人工林在1996年的植被碳储量为132.47和12.81 Tg C, 2011年分别为152.41和26.63 Tg C, 平均固碳速率分别为1.33和0.92 Tg C·a^-1。甘肃省幼、中龄林面积比重较大, 占全省的62.28%, 根据碳密度随林龄的动态变化特征, 预测这些低龄林将发挥巨大的碳汇潜力。     

Carbon dynamics in the future forest: the importance of long‐term successional legacy and climate–fire interactions

Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long‐term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape‐scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS‐II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results highlight the importance of modeling forest succession and stand development processes at the landscape scale for understanding the C cycle. Due primarily to landscape legacy effects of historic logging of the Comstock Era in the late 1880s, C sequestration may continue throughout the current century, and the forest will remain a C sink (Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance > 0), regardless of climate regime. Climate change caused increases in temperatures limited simulated C sequestration potential because of augmented fire activity and reduced establishment ability of subalpine and upper montane trees. Higher temperatures influenced forest response more than reduced precipitation. As the forest reached its potential steady state, the forest could become C neutral or a C source, and climate change could accelerate this transition. The future of forest ecosystem C cycling in many forested systems worldwide may depend more on major disturbances and landscape legacies related to land use than on projected climate change alone.     

Stemwood volume increment changes in European forests due to climate change—a simulation study with the EFISCEN model

This paper presents the results of a modelling study of future net annual increment changes in stemwood of European forests owing to climate change. Seven process‐based growth models were applied to 14 representative forest sites across Europe under one climate change scenario. The chosen scenario was the HadCM2 run, based on emission scenario IS92a, and resulted in an increase in mean temperature of 2.5 °C between 1990 and 2050, and an increase in annual precipitation of 5–15%. The information from those runs was incorporated in a transient way in a large‐scale forest resource scenario model, EFISCEN (European forest information scenario). European scale forest resource projections were made for 28 countries covering 131.7 million ha of forest under two management scenarios for the period until 2050. The results showed that net annual increments in stemwood of European forests under climate change will further increase with an additional 0.9 m³ ha^?1 y^?1 in 2030 compared to the ongoing increase under a current climate scenario, i.e. an extra 18% increase. After 2030 the extra increment increase is reduced to 0.79 m³ ha^?1 y^?1 in 2050. Under climate change, absolute net annual increments will increase from the present 4.95, on average for Europe, to 5.93 m³ ha^?1 y^?1 in 2025. After 2025, increments in all scenarios start to decline owing to ageing of the forest and the high growing stocks being reached. The results of the present study are surrounded by large uncertainties. These uncertainties are caused by unknown emissions in the future, unknown extent of climate change, uncertainty in process‐based models, uncertainty in inventory data, and uncertainty in inventory projection. Although the results are thus not conclusive, climate change may lead to extra felling opportunities in European forests of 87 million m³y^?1. Because Europe's forests are intensively managed already, management may adapt to climate change relatively easily. However, this study also indicates that climate change may lead to a faster build‐up of growing stocks. That may create a less stable forest resource in terms of risks to storm damage.     

Integrating remote sensing and demography for more efficient and effective assessment of changing mountain forest distribution

Species range shifts have been well studied in light of rising global temperatures and the role climate plays in restricting species distribution. In mountain regions, global trends show upward elevational shifts of altitudinal treelines. However, there is significant variation in response between geographic locations driven by climatic and habitat heterogeneity and biotic interactions. Accurate estimation of treeline shifts requires fine-scale patterns of forest structure to be discriminated across mountain ranges. Satellite remote sensing allows detailed information on forest structure to be extrapolated across mountain ranges, however, variation in methodology combined with a lack of information on accuracy and repeatability has led to high uncertainty in the utility of remotely sensed data in studies of mountain treelines. We unite three themes; suitability of remote sensing products, ecological relevance of classifications and effectiveness of the training and validation process in relation to the study of mountain treeline ecotones. We identify needs for further research comparing the utility of different remotely sensed data sets, better characterisation of treeline structure and incorporation of accuracy assessment. Collectively, the improvements we describe will significantly improve the utility of remote sensing by facilitating a more consistent approach to defining geographic variation in treeline structure, improving our ability to link processes from stand to regional scale and the accuracy of range shift assessments. Ultimately, this advance will enable better monitoring of mountain treeline shifts and estimation of the associated to biodiversity and ecosystem function.     

Stand Structural Dynamics of North American Boreal Forests

Stand structure, the arrangement and interrelationships of live and dead trees, has been linked to forest regeneration, nutrient cycling, wildlife habitat, and climate regulation. The objective of this review was to synthesize literature on stand structural dynamics of North American boreal forests, addressing both live tree and coarse woody debris (CWD) characteristics under different disturbance mechanisms (fire, clearcut, wind, and spruce budworm), while identifying regional differences based on climate and surficial deposit variability. In fire origin stands, both live tree and CWD attributes are influenced initially largely by the characteristics of the stand replacing fire and later increasingly by autogenic processes. Differences in stand structure have also been observed between various stand cover types. Blowdown and insect outbreaks are two significant non-stand replacing disturbances that can alter forest stand structure through removing canopy trees, freeing up available growing space, and creating microsites for new trees to establish. Climate and surficial deposits are highly variable in the boreal forest due to its extensive geographic range, influencing stand and landscape structure by affecting tree colonization, stand composition, successional trajectories, CWD dynamics, and disturbance regimes including regional fire cycles. Further, predicted climate change scenarios are likely to cause regional-specific alterations in stand and landscape structure, with the implications on ecosystem components including wildlife, biodiversity, and carbon balance still unclear. Some stand structural attributes are found to be similar between clearcut and fire origin stands, but others appear to be quite different. Future research shall focus on examining structural variability under both disturbance regimes and management alternatives emulating both stand replacing and non-stand replacing natural disturbances.

     

Identifying practical indicators of biodiversity for stand-level management of plantation forests

Identification of valid indicators of biodiversity is a critical need for sustainable forest management. We developed compositional, structural and functional indicators of biodiversity for five taxonomic groups—bryophytes, vascular plants, spiders, hoverflies and birds—using data from 44 Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and ash (Fraxinus excelsior) plantation forests in Ireland. The best structural biodiversity indicator was stand stage, defined using a multivariate classification of forest structure variables. However, biodiversity trends over the forest cycle and between tree species differ among the taxonomic groups studied. Canopy cover was the main structural indicator and affected other structural variables such as cover of lower vegetation layers. Other structural indicators included deadwood and distances to forest edge and to broadleaved woodland. Functional indicators included stand age, site environmental characteristics and management practices. Compositional indicators were limited to more easily identifiable plant and bird species. Our results suggest that the biodiversity of any one of the species groups we surveyed cannot act as a surrogate for all of the other species groups. However, certain subgroups, such as forest bryophytes and saproxylic hoverflies, may be able to act as surrogates for each other. The indicators we have identified should be used together to identify stands of potentially high biodiversity or to evaluate the biodiversity effects of silvicultural management practices. They are readily assessed by non-specialists, ecologically meaningful and applicable over a broad area with similar climate conditions and silvicultural systems. The approach we have used to develop biodiversity indicators, including stand structural types, is widely relevant and can enhance sustainable forest management of plantations.     

Vegetation carbon sequestration in Chinese forests from 2010 to 2050

Forests store a large part of the terrestrial vegetation carbon (C) and have high C sequestration potential. Here, we developed a new forest C sequestration (FCS) model based on the secondary succession theory, to estimate vegetation C sequestration capacity in China's forest vegetation. The model used the field measurement data of 3161 forest plots and three future climate scenarios. The results showed that logistic equations provided a good fit for vegetation biomass with forest age in natural and planted forests. The FCS model has been verified with forest biomass data, and model uncertainty is discussed. The increment of vegetation C storage in China's forest vegetation from 2010 to 2050 was estimated as 13.92 Pg C, while the average vegetation C sequestration rate was 0.34 Pg C yr^?1 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.28–0.42 Pg C yr^?1, which differed significantly between forest types. The largest contributor to the increment was deciduous broadleaf forest (37.8%), while the smallest was deciduous needleleaf forest (2.7%). The vegetation C sequestration rate might reach its maximum around 2020, although vegetation C storage increases continually. It is estimated that vegetation C sequestration might offset 6–8% of China's future emissions. Furthermore, there was a significant negative relationship between vegetation C sequestration rate and C emission rate in different provinces of China, suggesting that developed provinces might need to compensate for undeveloped provinces through C trade. Our findings will provide valuable guidelines to policymakers for designing afforestation strategies and forest C trade in China.