Using Highly Detailed Administrative Data to Predict Pneumonia Mortality

Background

Mortality prediction models generally require clinical data or are derived from information coded at discharge, limiting adjustment for presenting severity of illness in observational studies using administrative data.

Objectives

To develop and validate a mortality prediction model using administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days.

Research Design

After dividing the dataset into derivation and validation sets, we created a hierarchical generalized linear mortality model that included patient demographics, comorbidities, medications, therapies, and diagnostic tests administered in the first 2 hospital days. We then applied the model to the validation set.

Subjects

Patients aged ≥18 years admitted with pneumonia between July 2007 and June 2010 to 347 hospitals in Premier, Inc.’s Perspective database.

Measures

In hospital mortality.

Results

The derivation cohort included 200,870 patients and the validation cohort had 50,037. Mortality was 7.2%. In the multivariable model, 3 demographic factors, 25 comorbidities, 41 medications, 7 diagnostic tests, and 9 treatments were associated with mortality. Factors that were most strongly associated with mortality included receipt of vasopressors, non-invasive ventilation, and bicarbonate. The model had a c-statistic of 0.85 in both cohorts. In the validation cohort, deciles of predicted risk ranged from 0.3% to 34.3% with observed risk over the same deciles from 0.1% to 33.7%.

Conclusions

A mortality model based on detailed administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days had good discrimination and calibration. The model compares favorably to clinically based prediction models and may be useful in observational studies when clinical data are not available.     

A Multi-Center Prospective Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Severe Clostridium difficile Infection

Background and Aims

Prediction of severe clinical outcomes in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is important to inform management decisions for optimum patient care. Currently, treatment recommendations for CDI vary based on disease severity but validated methods to predict severe disease are lacking. The aim of the study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for severe outcomes in CDI.

Methods

A cohort totaling 638 patients with CDI was prospectively studied at three tertiary care clinical sites (Boston, Dublin and Houston). The clinical prediction rule (CPR) was developed by multivariate logistic regression analysis using the Boston cohort and the performance of this model was then evaluated in the combined Houston and Dublin cohorts.

Results

The CPR included the following three binary variables: age ≥ 65 years, peak serum creatinine ≥2 mg/dL and peak peripheral blood leukocyte count of ≥20,000 cells/μL. The Clostridium difficile severity score (CDSS) correctly classified 76.5% (95% CI: 70.87-81.31) and 72.5% (95% CI: 67.52-76.91) of patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. In the validation cohort, CDSS scores of 0, 1, 2 or 3 were associated with severe clinical outcomes of CDI in 4.7%, 13.8%, 33.3% and 40.0% of cases respectively.

Conclusions

We prospectively derived and validated a clinical prediction rule for severe CDI that is simple, reliable and accurate and can be used to identify high-risk patients most likely to benefit from measures to prevent complications of CDI.     

Development and Validation of a Clinical Scoring System for Predicting Risk of HCC in Asymptomatic Individuals Seropositive for Anti-HCV Antibodies

Background

The development of a risk assessment tool for long-term hepatocellular carcinoma risk would be helpful in identifying high-risk patients and providing information of clinical consultation.

Methods

The model derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 975 and 572 anti-HCV seropositives, respectively. The model included age, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), the ratio of aspirate aminotransferase to ALT, serum HCV RNA levels and cirrhosis status and HCV genotype. Two risk prediction models were developed: one was for all-anti-HCV seropositives, and the other was for anti-HCV seropositives with detectable HCV RNA. The Cox''s proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate regression coefficients of HCC risk predictors to derive risk scores. The cumulative HCC risks in the validation cohort were estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. The area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the risk models.

Results

All predictors were significantly associated with HCC. The summary risk scores of two models derived from the derivation cohort had predictability of HCC risk in the validation cohort. The summary risk score of the two risk prediction models clearly divided the validation cohort into three groups (p<0.001). The AUROC for predicting 5-year HCC risk in the validation cohort was satisfactory for the two models, with 0.73 and 0.70, respectively.

Conclusion

Scoring systems for predicting HCC risk of HCV-infected patients had good validity and discrimination capability, which may triage patients for alternative management strategies.     

Comparison of Prognostic Genomic Predictors in Colorectal Cancer

Background

Although several prognostic genomic predictors have been identified from independent studies, it remains unclear whether these predictors are actually concordant with respect to their predictions for individual patients and which predictor performs best. We compared five prognostic genomic predictors, the V7RHS, the ColoGuideEx, the Meta163, the OncoDX, and the MDA114, in terms of predicting disease-free survival in two independent cohorts of patients with colorectal cancer.

Study Design

Using original classification algorithms, we tested the predictions of five genomic predictors for disease-free survival in two cohorts of patients with colorectal cancer (n = 229 and n = 168) and evaluated concordance of predictors in predicting outcomes for individual patients.

Results

We found that only two predictors, OncoDX and MDA114, demonstrated robust performance in identifying patients with poor prognosis in 2 independent cohorts. These two predictors also had modest but significant concordance of predicted outcome (r>0.3, P<0.001 in both cohorts).

Conclusions

Further validation of developed genomic predictors is necessary. Despite the limited number of genes shared by OncoDX and MDA114, individual-patient outcomes predicted by these two predictors were significantly concordant.     

The Association between Histamine 2 Receptor Antagonist Use and Clostridium difficile Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a major health problem. Epidemiological evidence suggests that there is an association between acid suppression therapy and development of CDI.

Purpose

We sought to systematically review the literature that examined the association between histamine 2 receptor antagonists (H₂RAs) and CDI.

Data source

We searched Medline, Current Contents, Embase, ISI Web of Science and Elsevier Scopus from 1990 to 2012 for all analytical studies that examined the association between H₂RAs and CDI.

Study selection

Two authors independently reviewed the studies for eligibility.

Data extraction

Data about studies characteristics, adjusted effect estimates and quality were extracted.

Data synthesis

Thirty-five observations from 33 eligible studies that included 201834 participants were analyzed. Studies were performed in 6 countries and nine of them were multicenter. Most studies did not specify the type or duration of H₂RAs therapy. The pooled effect estimate was 1.44, 95% CI (1.22–1.7), I² = 70.5%. This association was consistent across different subgroups (by study design and country) and there was no evidence of publication bias. The pooled effect estimate for high quality studies was 1.39 (1.15–1.68), I2 = 72.3%. Meta-regression analysis of 10 study-level variables did not identify sources of heterogeneity. In a speculative analysis, the number needed to harm (NNH) with H₂RAs at 14 days after hospital admission in patients receiving antibiotics or not was 58, 95% CI (37, 115) and 425, 95% CI (267, 848), respectively. For the general population, the NNH at 1 year was 4549, 95% CI (2860, 9097).

Conclusion

In this rigorous systematic review and meta-analysis, we observed an association between H₂RAs and CDI. The absolute risk of CDI associated with H₂RAs is highest in hospitalized patients receiving antibiotics.     

Association between Proton Pump Inhibitor Therapy and Clostridium difficile Infection: A Contemporary Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Emerging epidemiological evidence suggests that proton pump inhibitor (PPI) acid-suppression therapy is associated with an increased risk of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI).

Methods

Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus were searched from 1990 to January 2012 for analytical studies that reported an adjusted effect estimate of the association between PPI use and CDI. We performed random-effect meta-analyses. We used the GRADE framework to interpret the findings.

Results

We identified 47 eligible citations (37 case-control and 14 cohort studies) with corresponding 51 effect estimates. The pooled OR was 1.65, 95% CI (1.47, 1.85), I² = 89.9%, with evidence of publication bias suggested by a contour funnel plot. A novel regression based method was used to adjust for publication bias and resulted in an adjusted pooled OR of 1.51 (95% CI, 1.26–1.83). In a speculative analysis that assumes that this association is based on causality, and based on published baseline CDI incidence, the risk of CDI would be very low in the general population taking PPIs with an estimated NNH of 3925 at 1 year.

Conclusions

In this rigorously conducted systemic review and meta-analysis, we found very low quality evidence (GRADE class) for an association between PPI use and CDI that does not support a cause-effect relationship.     

Prospective Validation of a Prognostic Model for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis in Late Preterm Infants: A Multicenter Birth Cohort Study

Objectives

This study aimed to update and validate a prediction rule for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in preterm infants 33–35 weeks gestational age (WGA).

Study Design

The RISK study consisted of 2 multicenter prospective birth cohorts in 41 hospitals. Risk factors were assessed at birth among healthy preterm infants 33–35 WGA. All hospitalizations for respiratory tract infection were screened for proven RSV infection by immunofluorescence or polymerase chain reaction. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to update an existing prediction model in the derivation cohort (n = 1,227). In the validation cohort (n = 1,194), predicted versus actual RSV hospitalization rates were compared to determine validity of the model.

Results

RSV hospitalization risk in both cohorts was comparable (5.7% versus 4.9%). In the derivation cohort, a prediction rule to determine probability of RSV hospitalization was developed using 4 predictors: family atopy (OR 1.9; 95%CI, 1.1–3.2), birth period (OR 2.6; 1.6–4.2), breastfeeding (OR 1.7; 1.0–2.7) and siblings or daycare attendance (OR 4.7; 1.7–13.1). The model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.703; 0.64–0.76, 0.702 after bootstrapping). External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (c-statistic 0.678; 0.61–0.74).

Conclusions

Our prospectively validated prediction rule identifies infants at increased RSV hospitalization risk, who may benefit from targeted preventive interventions. This prediction rule can facilitate country-specific, cost-effective use of RSV prophylaxis in late preterm infants.     

Testing the Prognostic Accuracy of the Updated Pediatric Sepsis Biomarker Risk Model

Background

We previously derived and validated a risk model to estimate mortality probability in children with septic shock (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl). PERSEVERE uses five biomarkers and age to estimate mortality probability. After the initial derivation and validation of PERSEVERE, we combined the derivation and validation cohorts (n = 355) and updated PERSEVERE. An important step in the development of updated risk models is to test their accuracy using an independent test cohort.

Objective

To test the prognostic accuracy of the updated version PERSEVERE in an independent test cohort.

Methods

Study subjects were recruited from multiple pediatric intensive care units in the United States. Biomarkers were measured in 182 pediatric subjects with septic shock using serum samples obtained during the first 24 hours of presentation. The accuracy of PERSEVERE 28-day mortality risk estimate was tested using diagnostic test statistics, and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was used to test whether PERSEVERE adds information to a physiology-based scoring system.

Results

Mortality in the test cohort was 13.2%. Using a risk cut-off of 2.5%, the sensitivity of PERSEVERE for mortality was 83% (95% CI 62–95), specificity was 75% (68–82), positive predictive value was 34% (22–47), and negative predictive value was 97% (91–99). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (0.70–0.92). The false positive subjects had a greater degree of organ failure burden and longer intensive care unit length of stay, compared to the true negative subjects. When adding PERSEVERE to a physiology-based scoring system, the net reclassification improvement was 0.91 (0.47–1.35; p<0.001).

Conclusions

The updated version of PERSEVERE estimates mortality probability reliably in a heterogeneous test cohort of children with septic shock and provides information over and above a physiology-based scoring system.     

Healthcare Resource Utilization for Recurrent Clostridium difficile Infection in a Large University Hospital in Houston,Texas

Background

There are limited data examining healthcare resource utilization in patients with recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI).

Methods

Patients with CDI at a tertiary-care hospital in Houston, TX, were prospectively enrolled into an observational cohort study. Recurrence was assessed via follow-up phone calls. Patients with one or more recurrence were included in this study. The location at which healthcare was obtained by patients with recurrent CDI was identified along with hospital length of stay. CDI-attributable readmissions, defined as a positive toxin test within 48 hours of admission and a primary CDI diagnosis, were also assessed.

Results

372 primary cases of CDI were identified of whom 64 (17.2%) experienced at least one CDI recurrence. Twelve of 64 patients experienced 18 further episodes of CDI recurrence. Of these 64 patients, 33 (50.8%) patients with recurrent CDI were readmitted of which 6 (18.2%) required ICU care, 29 (45.3%) had outpatient care only, and 2 (3.1%) had an ED visit. Nineteen (55.9%) readmissions were defined as CDI-attributable. For patients with CDI-attributable readmission, the average length of stay was 6±6 days.

Conclusion

Recurrent CDI leads to significant healthcare resource utilization. Methods of reducing the burden of recurrent CDI should be further studied.     

Higher Rates of Clostridium difficile Infection among Smokers

Objectives

Cigarette smoking has been shown to be related to inflammatory bowel disease. We investigated whether smoking affected the probability of developing Clostridium difficile infection (CDI).

Methods

We conducted a longitudinal study of 16,781 older individuals from the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study. Data were linked to files from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Results

Overall, the rate of CDI in older individuals was 220.6 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 193.3, 248.0). Rates of CDI were 281.6/100,000 person-years in current smokers, 229.0/100,000 in former smokers and 189.1/100,000 person-years in never smokers. The odds of CDI were 33% greater in former smokers (95% CI: 8%, 65%) and 80% greater in current smokers (95% CI: 33%, 145%) when compared to never smokers. When the number of CDI-related visits was evaluated, current smokers had a 75% increased rate of CDI compared to never smokers (95% CI: 15%, 167%).

Conclusions

Smoking is associated with developing a Clostridium difficile infection. Current smokers have the highest risk, followed by former smokers, when compared to rates of infection in never smokers.     

Blood autoantibody and cytokine profiles predict response to anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction

Anti-TNF therapies have revolutionized the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a common systemic autoimmune disease involving destruction of the synovial joints. However, in the practice of rheumatology approximately one-third of patients demonstrate no clinical improvement in response to treatment with anti-TNF therapies, while another third demonstrate a partial response, and one-third an excellent and sustained response. Since no clinical or laboratory tests are available to predict response to anti-TNF therapies, great need exists for predictive biomarkers.

Methods

Here we present a multi-step proteomics approach using arthritis antigen arrays, a multiplex cytokine assay, and conventional ELISA, with the objective to identify a biomarker signature in three ethnically diverse cohorts of RA patients treated with the anti-TNF therapy etanercept.

Results

We identified a 24-biomarker signature that enabled prediction of a positive clinical response to etanercept in all three cohorts (positive predictive values 58 to 72%; negative predictive values 63 to 78%).

Conclusions

We identified a multi-parameter protein biomarker that enables pretreatment classification and prediction of etanercept responders, and tested this biomarker using three independent cohorts of RA patients. Although further validation in prospective and larger cohorts is needed, our observations demonstrate that multiplex characterization of autoantibodies and cytokines provides clinical utility for predicting response to the anti-TNF therapy etanercept in RA patients.     

Circulating microRNAs as a Fingerprint for Liver Cirrhosis

Background

Sensitive and specific detection of liver cirrhosis is an urgent need for optimal individualized management of disease activity. Substantial studies have identified circulation miRNAs as biomarkers for diverse diseases including chronic liver diseases. In this study, we investigated the plasma miRNA signature to serve as a potential diagnostic biomarker for silent liver cirrhosis.

Methods

A genome-wide miRNA microarray was first performed in 80 plasma specimens. Six candidate miRNAs were selected and then trained in CHB-related cirrhosis and controls by qPCR. A classifier, miR-106b and miR-181b, was validated finally in two independent cohorts including CHB-related silent cirrhosis and controls, as well as non−CHB-related cirrhosis and controls as validation sets, respectively.

Results

A profile of 2 miRNAs (miR-106b and miR-181b) was identified as liver cirrhosis biomarkers irrespective of etiology. The classifier constructed by the two miRNAs provided a high diagnostic accuracy for cirrhosis (AUC = 0.882 for CHB-related cirrhosis in the training set, 0.774 for CHB-related silent cirrhosis in one validation set, and 0.915 for non−CHB-related cirrhosis in another validation set).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrated that the combined detection of miR-106b and miR-181b has a considerable clinical value to diagnose patients with liver cirrhosis, especially those at early stage.     

Outpatient Healthcare Settings and Transmission of Clostridium difficile

Background

Recent reports suggest that community-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) (i.e., no healthcare facility admission within 90 days) may be increasing in frequency. We hypothesized that outpatient clinics could be an important source for acquisition of community-associated CDI.

Methods

We performed a 6-month prospective study of CDI patients to determine frequency of and risk factors for skin and environmental shedding during outpatient visits and to derive a prediction rule for positive cultures. We performed a point–prevalence culture survey to assess the frequency of C. difficile contamination in outpatient settings and evaluated the frequency of prior outpatient visits in patients with community-associated CDI.

Results

Of 67 CDI patients studied, 54 (81%) had 1 or more outpatient visits within 12 weeks after diagnosis. Of 44 patients cultured during outpatient visits, 14 (32%) had skin contamination and 12 (27%) contaminated environmental surfaces. Decreased mobility, fecal incontinence, and treatment with non-CDI antibiotics were associated with positive cultures, whereas vancomycin taper therapy was protective. In patients not on CDI therapy, a prediction rule including incontinence or decreased mobility was 90% sensitive and 79% specific for detection of spore shedding. Of 84 clinic and emergency department rooms cultured, 12 (14%) had 1 or more contaminated environmental sites. For 33 community-associated CDI cases, 31 (94%) had an outpatient visit during the 12 weeks prior to onset of diarrhea.

Conclusions

Patients with recent CDI present a significant risk for transmission of spores during outpatient visits. The outpatient setting may be an underappreciated source of community-associated CDI cases.     

Tissue MicroRNAs as Predictors of Outcome in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Treated with First Line Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin with or without Bevacizumab

Purpose

We tested the hypothesis that expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) in cancer tissue can predict effectiveness of bevacizumab added to capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPEOX) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

Experimental Design

Patients with mCRC treated with first line CAPEOX and bevacizumab (CAPEOXBEV): screening (n = 212) and validation (n = 121) cohorts, or CAPEOX alone: control cohort (n = 127), were identified retrospectively and archival primary tumor samples were collected. Expression of 754 miRNAs was analyzed in the screening cohort using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) arrays and expression levels were related to time to disease progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS). Significant miRNAs from the screening study were analyzed in all three cohorts using custom PCR arrays. In situ hybridization (ISH) was done for selected miRNAs.

Results

In the screening study, 26 miRNAs were significantly correlated with outcome in multivariate analyses. Twenty-two miRNAs were selected for further study. Higher miR-664-3p expression and lower miR-455-5p expression were predictive of improved outcome in the CAPEOXBEV cohorts and showed a significant interaction with bevacizumab effectiveness. The effects were strongest for OS. Both miRNAs showed high expression in stromal cells. Higher expression of miR-196b-5p and miR-592 predicted improved outcome regardless of bevacizumab treatment, with similar effect estimates in all three cohorts.

Conclusions

We have identified potentially predictive miRNAs for bevacizumab effectiveness and additional miRNAs that could be related to chemotherapy effectiveness or prognosis in patients with mCRC. Our findings need further validation in large cohorts, preferably from completed randomized trials.     

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients

Background

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25^th, 50^th, and 75^th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032).

Conclusions/Significance

An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.     

Surveillance for Clostridium difficile infection: ICD-9 coding has poor sensitivity compared to laboratory diagnosis in hospital patients, Singapore

Introduction

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is an increasingly recognized nosocomial infection in Singapore. Surveillance methods include laboratory reporting of Clostridium difficile toxin assays (CDTA) or use of International Classification of Diseases, 9^th Revision (ICD-9) discharge code 008.45. Previous US studies showed good correlation between CDTA and ICD-9 codes. However, the use of ICD-9 codes for CDI surveillance has not been validated in other healthcare settings.

Methods

We compared CDI rates based on CDTA to ICD-9 codes for all discharges in 2007 from our hospital to determine sensitivity and specificity of ICD-9 codes. Demographic and hospitalization data were analyzed to determine predictors for missing ICD-9 codes.

Results

During 2007, there were 56,352 discharges. Of these, 268 tested CDTA-positive but only 133 were assigned the CDI ICD-9 code. A total of 141 discharges had the ICD-9 code; 8 were CDTA-negative, the rest were CDTA-positive. Community-acquired CDI accounted for only 3.2% of cases. The sensitivity and specificity of ICD-9 codes compared to CDTA were 49.6% and 100% respectively. Concordance between CDTA and ICD-9 codes was 0.649 (p<.001). Comparing concordant patients (CDTA+/ICD9+) to discordant patients (CDTA+/ICD9−), concordant patients were more likely to be over 50 years of age (OR 3.49, 95% CI 1.66–7.34, p = .001) and have shorter time from admission to testing (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97–0.99, p = .009).

Discussion

Unlike previous studies in the US, ICD-9 codes substantially underestimate CDI in Singapore compared to microbiological data. Older patients with shorter time to testing were less likely to have missing ICD-9 codes.     

Clinical potential of DNA methylation in gastric cancer: a meta-analysis

Background

Accumulating evidence indicates aberrant DNA methylation is involved in gastric tumourigenesis, suggesting it may be a useful clinical biomarker for the disease. The aim of this study was to consolidate and summarize published data on the potential of methylation in gastric cancer (GC) risk prediction, prognostication and prediction of treatment response.

Methods

Relevant studies were identified from PubMed using a systematic search approach. Results were summarized by meta-analysis. Mantel-Haenszel odds ratios were computed for each methylation event assuming the random-effects model.

Results

A review of 589 retrieved publications identified 415 relevant articles, including 143 case-control studies on gene methylation of 142 individual genes in GC clinical samples. A total of 77 genes were significantly differentially methylated between tumour and normal gastric tissue from GC subjects, of which data on 62 was derived from single studies. Methylation of 15, 4 and 7 genes in normal gastric tissue, plasma and serum respectively was significantly different in frequency between GC and non-cancer subjects. A prognostic significance was reported for 18 genes and predictive significance was reported for p16 methylation, although many inconsistent findings were also observed. No bias due to assay, use of fixed tissue or CpG sites analysed was detected, however a slight bias towards publication of positive findings was observed.

Conclusions

DNA methylation is a promising biomarker for GC risk prediction and prognostication. Further focused validation of candidate methylation markers in independent cohorts is required to develop its clinical potential.     

Livelihood security and adherence to antiretroviral therapy in low and middle income settings: a systematic review

Introduction

We sought to examine the association between livelihood security and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ARVs) in low- and middle-income countries (LIMC).

Methods

Performing a systematic review, we searched, independently and in duplicate, 7 electronic databases and 2 conference websites for quantitative surveys that examined the association between indicators of livelihood security and adherence to ARVs in LIMC between 2000–2010. Criteria for relevance were applied to complete papers (quantitative study with estimates of associations) and quality assessment was conducted on those deemed relevant. We performed three regressions to measure the association between each type of livelihood and adherence.

Results

Twenty original studies and 6 conference abstracts were included, the majority from Africa (n = 16). Seventeen studies and 3 conference abstracts were cross-sectional and 3 studies and 3 abstracts were prospective clinical cohort studies, with considerable variation in quality for studies of each design type. Among the diverse populations represented, we observed considerable variation in associations between measurements of livelihood indicators and increasingly accepted adherence measures, irrespective of study design or quality. A financial capital indicator, financial constraints/payment for ARV medication, was more commonly associated with non-adherence (3/5 studies). A human capital indicator, educational level, was most commonly associated with adherence (11/20 studies).

Discussion

Additional better quality research examining livelihood security is required to inform provision of optimal supports for adherence and mitigation of the impacts of HIV/AIDS.     

Prediction of high-grade vesicoureteral reflux after pediatric urinary tract infection: external validation study of procalcitonin-based decision rule

Background

Predicting vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR) ≥3 at the time of the first urinary tract infection (UTI) would make it possible to restrict cystography to high-risk children. We previously derived the following clinical decision rule for that purpose: cystography should be performed in cases with ureteral dilation and a serum procalcitonin level ≥0.17 ng/mL, or without ureteral dilatation when the serum procalcitonin level ≥0.63 ng/mL. The rule yielded a 86% sensitivity with a 46% specificity. We aimed to test its reproducibility.

Study Design

A secondary analysis of prospective series of children with a first UTI. The rule was applied, and predictive ability was calculated.

Results

The study included 413 patients (157 boys, VUR ≥3 in 11%) from eight centers in five countries. The rule offered a 46% specificity (95% CI, 41–52), not different from the one in the derivation study. However, the sensitivity significantly decreased to 64% (95%CI, 50–76), leading to a difference of 20% (95%CI, 17–36). In all, 16 (34%) patients among the 47 with VUR ≥3 were misdiagnosed by the rule. This lack of reproducibility might result primarily from a difference between derivation and validation populations regarding inflammatory parameters (CRP, PCT); the validation set samples may have been collected earlier than for the derivation one.

Conclusions

The rule built to predict VUR ≥3 had a stable specificity (ie. 46%), but a decreased sensitivity (ie. 64%) because of the time variability of PCT measurement. Some refinement may be warranted.     

Acute Myocardial Infarction in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Need for Data

Background

Trends in the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa have not been well described, despite growing recognition of the increasing burden of cardiovascular disease in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of this systematic review was to describe the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health Archive, CINAHL, and Web of Science, and conducted reference and citation analyses. Inclusion criteria were: observational studies, studies that reported incidence or prevalence of acute myocardial infarction, studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, and studies that defined acute myocardial infarction by EKG changes or elevation of cardiac biomarkers. Studies conducted prior to 1992 were excluded. Two independent reviewers analyzed titles and abstracts, full-texts, and references and citations. These reviewers also performed quality assessment and data extraction. Quality assessment was conducted with a validated scale for observational studies.

Findings

Of 2292 records retrieved, seven studies met all inclusion criteria. These studies included a total of 92,378 participants from highly heterogeneous study populations in five different countries. Methodological quality assessment demonstrated scores ranging from 3 to 7 points (on an 8-point scale). Prevalence of acute myocardial infarction ranged from 0.1 to 10.4% among the included studies.

Interpretation

There is insufficient population-based data describing the prevalence of acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa. Well-designed registries and surveillance studies that capture the broad and diverse population with acute myocardial infarction in sub-Saharan Africa using common diagnostic criteria are critical in order to guide prevention and treatment strategies.

Registration

Registered in International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) Database #CRD42012003161.