我国东部温带植物群落的季相及其时空变化特征

 植物群落季相阶段的划分,对于诊断地方、区域和全球尺度上生态系统对气候变化的快速响应和进行遥感植被生长季节的地面检验,具有重要 的科学意义。该文利用物候累积频率拟合法对我国东部温带地区7个站点1982～1996年的植物群落季相阶段进行划分,并分析了植物群落季相的 空间差异和年际变化及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明：1）各站点多年平均变绿期和旺盛光合期初日随纬度的升高而推迟,凋落期和休眠期初 日随纬度的升高而提前;多年平均变绿期、旺盛光合期和凋落期长度随纬度的变化不甚明显,而休眠期则随纬度的升高明显延长;2）在研究期 间内,站点平均变绿期初日以0.6 d&;#8226;a^－1的平均速率显著提前,且长度以0.7 d&;#8226;a^－1的平均速率显著延长;旺盛光合期初日呈不显著推迟,长 度呈不显著缩短;凋落期初日呈微弱提前,长度呈微弱延长;休眠期初日呈微弱提前,但长度却以0.9 d&;#8226;a^－1的平均速率显著缩短;3）站点平 均变绿期初日与当月平均气温的负相关显著,平均气温每升高1 ℃,初日提前约4.3 d;站点平均旺盛光合期初日与初日前第二个月到初日当月 平均气温的负相关显著,平均气温每升高1 ℃,初日提前约4.4 d;站点平均凋落期和休眠期初日与气温的相关均不显著。     

中国温带旱柳物候期对气候变化的时空响应

为了揭示中国温带植物物候随时间变化和植物物候对气候变化响应的空间格局及其生态机制,利用52个站点1986—2005年的旱柳展叶始期、开花始期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的物候数据,分析其时间序列的线性趋势,并通过建立基于最佳期间日均温的物候时间模型,确定物候发生日期对气温年际变化的响应。在研究的时段内,区域平均旱柳展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别以-4.2 d/10 a、-3.8 d/10 a和-3.3 d/10 a的平均速率显著提前,而区域平均旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期则分别呈不显著推迟和以2.4 d/10 a的平均速率显著推迟的趋势。单站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势以提前为主,显著提前的站点分别占40%、41%和29%;叶变色始期发生日期呈显著提前和显著推迟趋势的站点数相当,分别占17%和19%;落叶末期发生日期的线性趋势以推迟为主,显著推迟的站点占23%。各站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势空间序列与相应的最佳期间日均温的线性趋势空间序列之间呈显著负相关,表明一个站点前期气温升高的速率越快,该站这些物候期发生日期提前的速率就越快。在物候期对气温年际变化的响应方面,区域平均春季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别提前3.08 d、2.83 d和3.54 d;区域平均秋季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期分别推迟1.69 d和2.28 d。单站展叶始期和落叶末期发生日期对气温年际变化的响应表现出在温暖地区的站点比在寒冷地区的站点更为敏感的特点。总体上看,基于日均温的物候时间模型对春、夏季物候期的模拟精度明显高于对秋季物候期的模拟精度。建立了基于最佳期间日均温和日累积降水量的改进秋季物候模型,该模型使旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的模拟精度显著提高。由此可见,旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期受到前期气温和降水量的综合影响。     

青海省门源县1980-2015年青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素

利用1980-2015年青海省门源县农业气象站的青稞物候期及平行气温和降水资料,分析了气候变化背景下青海省门源县青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素,结果表明：播种、出苗和拔节期呈推迟趋势,其余物候期均呈提前趋势。其中播种期以2.65d/10a的趋势显著推迟,分蘖期、抽穗期分别以4.78d/10a和2.30d/10a的趋势显著提前。显著影响青稞物候期的气候因子为气温、降水和积温。播种前0℃活动积温升高1℃·d,期间降水量增加1mm,播种期推迟0.252d;稳定通过0℃积温增加1℃·d,分蘖期提前0.026d;4月最低气温升高1℃,抽穗期提前1.890d。自20世纪90年代出现播种推迟、分蘖期和抽穗期提前、驱动因子升高突变现象。物候期与驱动因素开始突变基本同步,表明青海高原气候变暖是青稞物候期变化的主导因素。     

2003-2018年米仓山地区植被物候时空变化及对气候的响应

植被物候直接反映了植被对环境变化响应的动态过程,对研究植被与气候的关系具有重要意义。基于遥感植被时序数据,探讨秦巴山区典型山地-米仓山地区植被物候变化及其对气候的响应。利用MODIS NDVI时序数据,采用动态阈值法获取米仓山地区植被物候参数;借助于Theil Sen斜率、Mann Kendall趋势检验方法结合植被类型数据分析研究区物候时空变化;采用偏相关方法分析物候变化与气温和降水之间的关系。结果表明：（1）米仓山地区植被生长季始期（SOS）主要集中在第80-110d,海拔每上升100m,SOS大约推迟0.6d;生长季末期（EOS）主要集中在第250-300d;生长季长度（LOS）主要集中在130-210d。除低海拔区域受人类活动影响物候波动较大外,EOS和LOS随海拔变化存在2000m分界线,其下物候随海拔升高物候明显推迟或缩短,其上物候变化趋于平缓。（2）16a来植被SOS呈提前趋势,提前幅度为0.47d/a,提前的像元占74.03%,其中,达到显著提前的像元占12.21%（P<0.1）;EOS整体呈提前趋势,提前幅度为0.22d/a;LOS略有延长,延长幅度为0.26d/a。（3）区域常绿型森林植被SOS晚于同垂直带的落叶型森林植被;草地、常绿阔叶灌木林SOS提前趋势最明显,变化率分别为-0.80、-0.71d/a;EOS提前趋势最明显的是针阔混交林和落叶阔叶林。（4） SOS主要受3月平均气温和4月降水的影响,3月平均气温升高以及4月降水增加导致SOS提前;EOS主要受10月降水的负向影响。     

气候变化背景下1964-2015年秦岭植物物候变化

以1964-2015年物候观测数据为基础,选取17种含乔木、灌木及藤本树种为研究对象,分析探讨了气候变化背景下秦岭地区植物物候变化规律及其差异性。结果表明:(1)52年来,秦岭地区物候始期普遍呈提前趋势,提前速率1.2d/10a,物候末期普遍呈推迟趋势,推迟速率3.5d/10a,物候生长期普遍延长;(2)秦岭地区物候突变发生于20世纪80年代,始期于1985年,末期于1984年。突变后,物候特征发生了显著变化,始期的提前速率较突变前显著加快,末期由突变前的提前趋势转变为极显著的推迟趋势,且变化速率和显著性均高于始期;始期与末期变化均表现出"趋同效应";物候年代际变化趋势显示,始期自2001-2005年起提前速率减缓,植物对气候变化的响应表现出适应性及滞后性。(3)秦岭物候变化存在树种差异,3大类树种始期的提前速率呈藤本、乔木、灌木依次增大,而末期的推迟速率则呈藤本、灌木、乔木依次减小。(4)秦岭物候变化存在南北差异,北坡始期的提前速率均高于南坡,而南坡末期的推迟速率均高于北坡。     

暖温带乔木和灌木物候变化及对气候变化的响应

根据2003-2014年气象数据和暖温带3种乔木(辽东栎、五角枫和核桃楸)和3种灌木(土庄绣线菊、毛叶丁香和六道木)的物候观测数据资料, 采用气候倾向率和回归分析等方法, 观察乔木和灌木物候变化特征的差异, 分析温度、降水以及乔木、灌木的物候变化趋势, 同时对气象因子与乔木和灌木物候期的相关关系进行研究。结果表明: ①研究期间, 北京东灵山平均气温呈不显著的上升趋势, 气候倾向率为0.200℃·10a–1, 春季(3–5月)和夏季(6-8月)温度显著上升; 降水量呈下降趋势, 平均减少71.630 mm·10a–1, 总体呈暖、干的趋势。②3种乔木的生长季长度都缩短, 辽东栎、五角枫和核桃楸平均生长季长度分别缩短50.70 d·10 a–1、29.83 d·10a–1和22.36 d·10a–1。3种灌木的生长季长度也都缩短, 土庄绣线菊、毛叶丁香和六道木的平均生长季长度分别缩短42.55 d·10a–1、42.76 d·10a–1和38.15 d·10a–1。乔木和灌木的物候变化趋势相同, 整体表现为春季物候推迟, 秋季物候提前, 生长季长度都缩短且生长季长度相差不大。乔木和灌木都表现出芽期推迟最明显, 每10年推迟达19天以上。③乔木和灌木各物候期与气温总体表现为负相关, 即气温升高, 物候期提前, 其相关性显示出夏季(6-8月)温度对植被物候期影响较大, 夏季温度与各物候期表现为正相关, 即夏季温度升高, 物候期推迟。同时乔木和灌木与总体降水没有明显的相关关系, 但秋季物候与不同时段降水表现不同的相关性, 由此可知夏季温度变化对木本植物春季物候(出芽期、展叶期和首花期)的影响更大, 而秋季物候(叶变色期和落叶期)受温度和降水共同影响。     

滇中城市群植被物候时空变化及其对城市化的响应

植被物候是响应外界环境变化的重要感应器，本文基于MOD13Q1 EVI数据，采用动态阈值法提取滇中城市群2001—2020年的植被物候参数，即生长季开始期、生长季结束期和生长季长度，揭示植被物候时空变化特征及城乡差异。结果表明：2001—2020年，滇中城市群植被总体呈现生长季开始期推迟、生长季结束期推迟(每年推迟0.66 d)和生长季长度延长的现象；相较于郊区和乡村地区，城区植被近20年的生长季开始期提前(每年1.05 d),生长季结束期推迟(每年0.91 d),生长季长度延长(每年1.79 d)。在城区-郊区-乡村梯度上，植被物候表现出显著的差异性，城区植被平均每年生长季开始期最早，结束期最早，且生长季长度最长，尤其在城区及向外0～2 km范围内变化最明显。随人口密度、人均GDP和建成区面积占比的增大，城区植被物候生长季开始期显著提前，生长季结束期显著推迟，生长季长度显著延长。植被各物候期及其持续时间在城区-郊区-乡村梯度上对环境变化的敏感度不同，研究区人口密度和建成区面积占比对滇中城市群植被生长季结束期的推迟有重要影响。     

青海省门源县1980—2015年青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素

利用1980—2015年青海省门源县农业气象站的青稞物候期及平行气温和降水资料,分析了气候变化背景下青海省门源县青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素,结果表明:播种、出苗和拔节期呈推迟趋势,其余物候期均呈提前趋势。其中播种期以2.65d/10a的趋势显著推迟,分蘖期、抽穗期分别以4.78d/10a和2.30d/10a的趋势显著提前。显著影响青稞物候期的气候因子为气温、降水和积温。播种前0℃活动积温升高1℃·d,期间降水量增加1mm,播种期推迟0.252d;稳定通过0℃积温增加1℃·d,分蘖期提前0.026d;4月最低气温升高1℃,抽穗期提前1.890d。自20世纪90年代出现播种推迟、分蘖期和抽穗期提前、驱动因子升高突变现象。物候期与驱动因素开始突变基本同步,表明青海高原气候变暖是青稞物候期变化的主导因素。     

中国北方苹果主产地苹果物候期对气候变暖的响应

为揭示我国北方苹果物候期时空变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应时段和强度,选取福山、万荣和阿克苏分别代表我国渤海湾、黄土高原和新疆苹果产区,利用1996—2018年各地红富士苹果芽开放期、展叶始期、始花期、可采成熟期、叶变色末期和落叶末期物候数据,分析不同物候期及生长阶段长度的变化趋势,并利用偏最小二乘回归法,从日尺度层面,分析气温变化对各物候期的影响。结果表明: 近23年来,福山、万荣和阿克苏芽开放期、展叶始期和始花期均呈现提前趋势,平均提前速率分别为0.36、0.33和0.23 d·a^-1,落叶末期则呈推迟趋势(0.68 d·a^-1),可采成熟期和叶变色末期在各产区的变化趋势不一致;果实生长发育期和果树全生育期分别以1.20和0.82 d·a^-1的速率延长。苹果春季物候期与1月初至相应物候期发生前平均气温呈显著负相关关系,期间温度每升高1 ℃,芽开放期、展叶始期和始花期将分别提前3.70、3.47和3.48 d;秋季物候期与各物候期前21～72 d的平均气温呈正相关,但与影响时段平均气温的相关性低于春季物候期;总体上,春季物候期受气温影响的程度大于秋季物候期,且果实生长发育期和果树全生育期的延长主要由春季物候期提前所致。各主产地间苹果物候期对气候变暖的响应存在一定差异,其中气温对阿克苏苹果生长发育的影响最大,其次是万荣,对福山的影响并不明显。该研究结果可为指导各地苹果产业应对气候变化提供理论依据。     

莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型

利用莎车县农业气象试验站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期气象观测资料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的变化特征以及气温、日照时数对物候期的影响.结果表明：巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之间均呈正相关,与花期之后的物候期始日的相关性大多较小,花芽膨大早迟与休眠期、生长期天数分别呈极显著的正相关和负相关.以果实成熟期为界,气温对之前、之后物候期间隔日数的影响分别为负相关和正相关,日照时数与物候期间隔日数大多为正相关.果实成熟 叶变色始期间隔日数对平均最高气温以及花序出现 开花末期、叶变色始期 落叶末期间隔日数对日照时数存在明显的响应.当巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均气温-3.0～-7.5 ℃的天数满30 d后,经过17～28 d将进入花芽萌动期.花芽萌动期、开花始期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的始日分别与首个候平均气温≥4 ℃且候平均最高气温≥12 ℃、春季侯平均气温≥14 ℃且侯平均最高气温≥22 ℃、秋季首个侯平均气温≤10 ℃且侯平均最高气温≤18 ℃和冬季首个侯平均气温≤1.9 ℃的候序一一对应.利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日预测模型,经过检验模型效果较好.     

Extension of the growing season due to delayed autumn over mid and high latitudes in North America during 1982–2006

Aim We intend to characterize and understand the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation phenology shifts in North America during the period 1982–2006. Location North America. Methods A piecewise logistic model is used to extract phenological metrics from a time‐series data set of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). An extensive comparison between satellite‐derived phenological metrics and ground‐based phenology observations for 14,179 records of 73 plant species at 802 sites across North America is made to evaluate the information about phenology shifts obtained in this study. Results The spatial pattern of vegetation phenology shows a strong dependence on latitude but a substantial variation along the longitudinal gradient. A delayed dormancy onset date (0.551 days year^?1, P= 0.013) and an extended growing season length (0.683 days year^?1, P= 0.011) are found over the mid and high latitudes in North America during 1982–2006, while no significant trends in greenup onset are observed. The delayed dormancy onset date and extended growing season length are mainly found in the shrubland biome. An extensive validation indicates a strong robustness of the satellite‐derived phenology information. Main conclusions It is the delayed dormancy onset date, rather than an advanced greenup onset date, that has contributed to the prolonged length of the growing season over the mid and high latitudes in North America during recent decades. Shrublands contribute the most to the delayed dormancy onset date and the extended growing season length. This shift of vegetation phenology implies that vegetation activity in North America has been altered by climatic change, which may further affect ecosystem structure and function in the continent.     

Climate controls on vegetation phenological patterns in northern mid- and high latitudes inferred from MODIS data

Recent studies using both field measurements and satellite-derived-vegetation indices have demonstrated that global warming is influencing vegetation growth and phenology. To accurately predict the future response of vegetation to climate variation, a thorough understanding of vegetation phenological cycles and their relationship to temperature and precipitation is required. In this paper, vegetation phenological transition dates identified using data from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in 2001 are linked with MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data from the northern hemisphere between 35°N and 70°N. The results show well-defined patterns dependent on latitude, in which vegetation greenup gradually migrates northward starting in March, and dormancy spreads southward from late September. Among natural vegetation land-cover types, the growing-season length for forests is strongly correlated with variation in mean annual LST. For urban areas, the onset of greenup is 4–9 days earlier on average, and the onset of dormancy is about 2–16 days later, relative to adjacent natural vegetation. This difference (especially for urban vs. forests) is apparently related to urban heat island effects that result in both the average spring temperature and the mean annual temperature in urban areas being about 1–3°C higher relative to rural areas. The results also indicate that urban heat island effects on vegetation phenology are stronger in North America than in Europe and Asia. Finally, the onset of forest greenup at continental scales can be effectively described using a thermal time-chilling model, which can be used to infer the delay or advance of greenup onset in relation to climatic warming at global scale.     

Birth-season variation in Japanese macaques,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Macaca fuscata</Emphasis>

Japanese macaques, Macaca fuscata, exhibit an annual reproductive cycle that apparently is maintained intrinsically. Translocation of nine troops to new latitudes within the northern hemisphere has had minimal effect on the timing of birth seasonality in these troops; translocation of one troop to the southern hemisphere has resulted in a 6-month forward displacement of birth seasonality in this troop. Limited available evidence indicates that, in the latitudinal zone between Toimisaki (31°22′N) and Kinkazan (38°17′N), mean birth date in in-situ troops becomes earlier as latitude of troop localities increases; the same relationship between mean birth date and latitude apparently does not apply to in-situ troops south and north of the Toimisaki–Kinkazan latitudinal zone. Within the Toimisaki–Kinkazan latitudinal zone, earlier mean birth dates at higher latitudes may permit infants to achieve an adequate level of development before the earlier onset of poor winter food conditions. South of the Toimisaki–Kinkazan latitudinal zone, winters are relatively mild and may be less of a factor in infant survival; north of this zone, poor winter food conditions persist so long that earlier infant births may be maladaptive. Electronic Publication     

藏北高原植被物候时空动态变化的遥感监测研究

利用遥感数据提取的植被物候格局及时空变化特征能很好地反映区域尺度上植被对全球变化的响应。目前关于青藏高原地区植被物候的少量报道基本上是基于物候站点的观测记录展开分析的。该文基于非对称高斯拟合算法重建了藏北高原2001-2010年的MODIS EVI (增强型植被指数)时间序列影像, 然后利用动态阈值法提取整个藏北高原2001-2010年植被覆盖的重要物候信息, 包括植被返青期、枯黄期与生长季长度, 分析了植被物候10年间平均状况的空间分异特征以及年际变化情况, 并结合站点观测记录分析了气温和降水对植被物候变化的影响, 结果表明: (1)藏北高原植被返青期在空间上表现出从东南到西北逐渐推迟的水平地带性与东南高山峡谷区的垂直地带性相结合的特征, 近60%区域的植被返青期提前, 特别是高山地区; (2)植被枯黄期的年际变化不太明显, 大部分地区都表现为自然的年际波动; (3)生长季长度的时空变化特征由植被返青期和枯黄期二者决定, 但主要受返青期提前影响, 大部分地区生长季长度延长; (4)研究区内不同气候区划植被物候的年际变化以那曲高山谷地亚寒带半湿润区和青南高原亚寒带半干旱区的植被返青期提前和生长季延长程度最为明显; (5)基于气象台站数据分析气候变化对物候的影响发现, 返青期提前及生长季延长主要受气温升高的影响, 与降水的关系尚不明确。     

Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009

Climate change in the last three decades could have major impacts on crop phenological development and subsequently on crop productivity. In this study, trends in winter wheat phenology are investigated in 36 agro-meteorological stations in the North China Plain (NCP) for the period 1981–2009. The study shows that the dates of sowing (BBCH 00), emergence (BBCH 10) and dormancy (start of dormancy) are delayed on the average by 1.5, 1.7 and 1.5 days/decade, respectively. On the contrary, the dates of greenup (end of dormancy), anthesis (BBCH 61) and maturity (BBCH 89) occur early on the average by 1.1, 2.7 and 1.4 days/decade, respectively. In most of the investigated stations, GP2 (dormancy to greenup), GP3 (greenup to anthesis) and GP0 (entire period from emergence to maturity) of winter wheat shortened during the period 1981–2009. Due, however, to early anthesis, grain-filling stage occurs at lower temperatures than before. This, along with shifts in cultivars, slightly prolongs GP4 (anthesis to maturity). Comparison of field-observed CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-wheat model-simulated dates of anthesis and maturity suggests that climate warming is the main driver of the changes in winter wheat phenology in the NCP. The findings of this study further suggest that climate change impact studies should be strengthened to adequately account for the complex responses and adaptations of field crops to this global phenomenon.     

Modeling greenup date of dominant grass species in the Inner Mongolian Grassland using air temperature and precipitation data

This work was undertaken to examine the combined effect of air temperature and precipitation during late winter and early spring on modeling greenup date of grass species in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. We used the traditional thermal time model and developed two revised thermal time models coupling air temperature and precipitation to simulate greenup date of three dominant grass species at six stations from 1983 to 2009. Results show that climatic controls on greenup date of grass species were location-specific. The revised thermal time models coupling air temperature and precipitation show higher simulation parsimony and efficiency than the traditional thermal time model for five of 11 data sets at Bayartuhushuo, Xilinhot and Xianghuangqi, whereas the traditional thermal time model indicates higher simulation parsimony and efficiency than the revised thermal time models coupling air temperature and precipitation for the other six data sets at E’ergunayouqi, Ewenkeqi and Chaharyouyihouqi. The mean root mean square error of the 11 models is 4.9 days. Moreover, the influence of late winter and early spring precipitation on greenup date seems to be stronger at stations with scarce precipitation than at stations with relatively abundant precipitation. From the mechanism perspectives, accumulated late winter and early spring precipitation may play a more important role as the precondition of forcing temperature than as the supplementary condition of forcing temperature in triggering greenup. Our findings suggest that predicting responses of grass phenology to global climate change should consider both thermal and moisture scenarios in some semiarid and arid areas.     

Latitudinal variation in clutch size–lay date regressions in Tachycineta swallows: effects of food supply or demography?

In a study of almost 16 000 nest records from seven swallow species across the entire Western Hemisphere, clutch sizes decline with relative laying date in each population, but the slope of this decline grows steeper with increasing distance from the equator. Late‐laying birds at all latitudes lay clutches of similar sizes, suggesting that latitudinal differences may be driven primarily by earlier‐laying birds. Focused comparisons of site‐years in North America with qualitatively different food availability indicate that food supply significantly affects mean clutch size but not the clutch size–lay date regression. Other studies on the seasonality of swallow food also indicate that steeper clutch size–lay date declines in the North are not caused by steeper earlier food peaks there. The distribution of lay dates grows increasingly right‐skewed with increasing latitude. This variation in lay‐date distributions could be due to the predominance of higher quality, early‐laying (and large‐clutched) individuals among populations at higher latitudes, resulting from latitudinal variation in mortality rates and the intensity of sexual selection. Our results underscore the importance of studying clutch size and lay date in tandem and suggest new research into the causes of their joint geographic variation.     

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (−3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°–66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.     

Phenological responses of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ulmus pumila</Emphasis> (Siberian Elm) to climate change in the temperate zone of China

Using Ulmus pumila (Siberian Elm) leaf unfolding and leaf fall phenological data from 46 stations in the temperate zone of China for the period 1986–2005, we detected linear trends in both start and end dates and length of the growing season. Moreover, we defined the optimum length period during which daily mean temperature affects the growing season start and end dates most markedly at each station in order to more precisely and rationally identify responses of the growing season to temperature. On average, the growing season start date advanced significantly at a rate of −4.0 days per decade, whereas the growing season end date was delayed significantly at a rate of 2.2 days per decade and the growing season length was prolonged significantly at a rate of 6.5 days per decade across the temperate zone of China. Thus, the growing season extension was induced mainly by the advancement of the start date. At individual stations, linear trends of the start date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature during the optimum length period, namely, the quicker the spring temperature increased at a station, the quicker the start date advanced. With respect to growing season response to interannual temperature variation, a 1°C increase in spring temperature during the optimum length period may induce an advancement of 2.8 days in the start date of the growing season, whereas a 1°C increase in autumn temperature during the optimum length period may cause a delay of 2.1 days in the end date of the growing season, and a 1°C increase in annual mean temperature may result in a lengthening of the growing season of 9 days across the temperate zone of China. Therefore, the response of the start date to temperature is more sensitive than the response of the end date. At individual stations, the sensitivity of growing season response to temperature depends obviously on local thermal conditions, namely, either the negative response of the start date or the positive response of the end date and growing season length to temperature was stronger at warmer locations than at colder locations. Thus, future regional climate warming may enhance the sensitivity of plant phenological response to temperature, especially in colder regions.