Effect of weather variables on the population fluctuation of muroid Calomys venustus in central Argentina

The effects of weather on population fluctuation patterns of the South American muroid Calomys venustus were studied. Box–Jenkins data series analysis and anova were used to describe the relationship between climatic variables and population. No relation was found between maximum temperatures or precipitation and the C. venustus population. Temperatures below 4 °C appear to affect populations of the overwintered cohort after a time lag of 5 months.     

Synchrony and geographical variation of the spruce bark beetle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ips typographus</Emphasis>) during a non-epidemic period

Spatio-temporal analyses of non-epidemic bark beetle populations may provide insight in dynamics predisposing for outbreaks. The present article presents a spatio-temporal analysis of the population dynamics of Ips typographus based on pheromone trap data from southeast and mid-Norway in the post-epidemic period 1979–2002. The analyses include regression analyses, hierarchical cluster analysis, and analysis of spatial synchrony of beetle time series and climatic data by means of nonparametric spatial covariance functions. The mean abundance of beetles declined linearly with latitude. In addition, the time series means were higher in areas with high forest productivity and rocky soils predisposed to drought. The time series patterns differed significantly between northern and southern study areas. The regional synchrony of the time series was fairly high (0.38), indicating that some large-scale climatic factor may influence the dynamics. Windfelling was the external variable showing the most parallel pattern of correlation to the beetle dynamics. We thus posit that large windfall events may be a major instigator and synchronizer of beetle outbreaks in areas subjected to regionalized weather systems.     

Are bark beetle outbreaks less synchronous than forest Lepidoptera outbreaks?

Comparisons of intraspecific spatial synchrony across multiple epidemic insect species can be useful for generating hypotheses about major determinants of population patterns at larger scales. The present study compares patterns of spatial synchrony in outbreaks of six epidemic bark beetle species in North America and Europe. Spatial synchrony among populations of the Eurasian spruce bark beetle Ips typographus was significantly higher than for the other bark beetle species. The spatial synchrony observed in epidemic bark beetles was also compared with previously published patterns of synchrony in outbreaks of defoliating forest Lepidoptera, revealing a marked difference between these two major insect groups. The bark beetles exhibited a generally lower degree of spatial synchrony than the Lepidoptera, possibly because bark beetles are synchronized by different weather variables that are acting on a smaller scale than those affecting the Lepidoptera, or because inherent differences in their dynamics leads to more cyclic oscillations and more synchronous spatial dynamics in the Lepidoptera.     

Short- and long-term effects of winter and spring weather on growth and survival of red deer in Norway

Populations of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Norway have increased continuously over the last decades. We tested the possible effects of climate and increase in population size on the survival rates and body condition of individuals in one of the northernmost populations of red deer in Europe. Based on 678 individuals of known age marked between 1977 and 1995, we estimated annual survival rates, the probabilities of being harvested and the recapture probability according to sex, age, year, winter and spring weather, population size, and, body weight and body condition, using capture-mark-recapture models. Winter harshness negatively influenced the body weight of yearlings and the survival of calves of both sexes. Spring weather influenced the survival of males in all age classes. A negative trend during the study period was detected in body weight and condition of calves and yearlings, but not in any age- or sex- specific survival rates. No significant gender differences in mean survival were shown in any age class. Moreover, there was little (male) or no (female) detectable between-year variation in survival rates for yearlings and adults. Winter weather acts as a limiting factor on population growth through a short-term effect on first-year survival and a long-term effect on body weight. We discuss the surprising low sex differences in natural survival rates and the differential effects of winter harshness on body weight, body condition and survival in relation to life history characteristics of red deer. Received: 10 November 1997 / Accepted: 2 June 1998     

A reappraisal of the population dynamics of the pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, on lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta, in Scotland

The pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, is a defoliating pest of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests in Scotland. This article reviews early and recent research on the population ecology of Panolis flammea and presents an analysis of pupal survey data collected between 1977 and 1993. Research in the 1980s suggested that natural enemies, although effective in preventing P. flammea outbreaks on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), played an insignificant role in the population dynamics of P. flammea on lodgepole pine. However, analysis of pupal survey data showed that delayed density-dependent action of natural enemies, probably parasitoids, was overlooked during the 1970s and 1980s. Recent research suggests that fungal pathogens are responsible for a decline in the frequency and severity of outbreaks of P. flammea on lodgepole pine. This suggestion, together with the overlooked importance of other natural enemies, indicates that the population ecology of P. flammea in Scotland has changed during the past 20 years and requires a full reappraisal. Received: May 31, 1999 / Accepted: August 18, 1999     

Changes in the fecundity of tent caterpillars: a correlated character of disease resistance or sublethal effect of disease?

Over the fluctuation in population density of tent caterpillars, Malacosoma californicum pluviale and M. disstria, fecundity changes from being high at peak density to low for several years during the decline. During the increase phase, fecundity rapidly returns to moderately high levels with a further increase occurring to-ward the end of the increase phase. Two hypotheses which might explain these shifts are that (1) mortality from viral disease which is common during population declines selects for resistant individuals with low fecundity as an associated characteristic, and (2) sublethal viral disease reduces fecundity of moths during population decline. In this study we observed rapid shifts in the frequencies of large and small egg masses and in the mean fecundity between different phases of the population fluctuation. Viral disease was more common in caterpillars from small egg masses of the forest tent caterpillar. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that sublethal effects of virus reduce the fecundity of moths during the population decline, but high fecundity is quickly restored when disease is rare during the population increase.     

Life history and population dynamics of Atriplex triangularis

The dynamics of a population of the stoloniferous Potentilla anserina was studied during four years. The mortality of established ramets followed a log-linear pattern superimposed on a seasonal fluctuation with an increased mortality during the period of vegetative spread. The major external mortality factors were unfavourable weather conditions such as drought and freezing. The turnover rate of the population was slow (31.6 yr). Vegetative spread dominated the recruitment to the population. Seedlings occurred but were exposed to a much higher mortality than vegetative daughter ramets. The juvenile period of seedlings is at least 4 yr in the field. This contrast to vegetative daughter ramets which are potentially flowering and stoloniferous the year after they are established, even if age affects both reproduction and vegetative spread. The density of most of the population is below the level where intraspecific regulative effects operate. However, in very dense stands both stolon and flower production were negatively density dependent.Nomenclature follows Lid (1974), Norsk og Svensk Flora, 2nd ed. Oslo.I am indebted to Lenn Jerling, Peter Torstensson, Anders Telenius and Gudrún Jónsdóttir for their help, and inspiring criticism throughout this study.     

Various population fluctuation patterns of light-attracted beetles in a tropical lowland dipterocarp forest in Sarawak

The population fluctuation pattern of light-attracted beetles was studied from August 1992 to September 1998 (for 73 months) using ultraviolet light-traps set at three vertical levels in a tropical lowland dipterocarp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. During our study, a general flowering occurred from April to July in 1996, and flowering on a small scale in 1997 and 1998. We analyzed the data for eight scarabaeid and six meloid species, some of which were anthophilous species. Various fluctuation patterns were observed among the beetle species in aspects of both seasonality and correlation with the supraannual phenological pattern. Three large chafer species (Scarabaeidae, Melolonthini) showed a clear seasonal fluctuation pattern with a peak once from March to May every year, the peak monthly catch greatly fluctuating annually. Other scarabaeid beetles did not show such a clear seasonal population pattern and hardly fluctuated annually. Populations of an anthophilous scarabaeid species, Parastasia bimaculata, a specific pollinator of Homalomena propinqua (Araceae), hardly fluctuated, probably because of its response to the constant flowering of its floral hosts. Monthly catches of an anthophilous scarabaeid, Anomala sp., and meloid beetles showed clear supraannual patterns in response to the general flowering and were significantly correlated with the flowering intensity with or without a lag of a month. The fluctuation pattern of meloids suggests a supraannual population fluctuation pattern of their hosts, i.e., megachilid/anthophorid bees. Received: November 9, 1999 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

Density-dependent reproduction causes winter crashes in a common vole population

Common voles in western France exhibit three-year population cycles with winter crashes after large outbreaks. During the winter of 2011–2012, we monitored survival, reproduction, recruitment and population growth rate of common voles at different densities (from low to outbreak densities) in natura to better understand density dependence of demographic parameters. Between October and April, the number of animals decreased irrespective of initial density. However, the decline was more pronounced when October density was higher (loss of ≈54 % of individuals at low density and 95 % at high density). Using capture-mark-recapture models with Pradel's temporal symmetry approach, we found a negative effect of density on recruitment and reproduction. In contrast, density had a slightly positive effect on survival indicating that mortality did not drive the steeper declines in animal numbers at high density. We discuss these results in a population cycle framework, and suggest that crashes after outbreaks could reflect negative effects of density dependence on reproduction rather than changes in mortality rates.     

Dynamics of an outbreak population of Acanthaster planci at Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef (1995–1999)

Despite their significant influence on coral reef ecosystems, causes of population outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci L.) are still poorly understood. Essentially, outbreaks of A. planci could arise from either (1) a single mass recruitment event or (2) the progressive accumulation of starfish from multiple cohorts. This study explored fine-scale variation in the size, distribution, and abundance of A. planci, during an outbreak at Lizard Island in the northern Great Barrier Reef, to assess the mechanism by which the outbreak occurred. Densities of A. planci around Lizard Island increased very gradually from October 1994 until December 1996, then remained at around 1.0 starfish per 200 m² until June 1998. The population of A. planci comprised individuals ranging in size from 11-cm to 62-cm diameter, representing individuals from multiple (at least four) different cohorts. These data suggest that the outbreak of A. planci at Lizard Island resulted from a prolonged build-up in starfish numbers through multiple successive recruitment events. This study shows that outbreaks of A. planci may arise independently of any sudden or substantial increase in rates of recruitment, such that any factor(s) responsible for the initial onset of outbreaks are likely to be very subtle and difficult to detect.     

Synergistic effects of food shortage and an insecticide on a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Daphnia</Emphasis> population: rapid decline of food density at the peak of population density reduces tolerance to the chemical and induces a large population crash

Laboratory populations of cloned Daphnia magna were exposed at different population phases (growing phase, density peak, stable phase) to the insecticide carbaryl at 15 μg 1⁻¹, which was harmful to juveniles but not to adults, and their population dynamics were analyzed. The population declined most at the density peak, when not only juveniles but also many adult individuals died. To analyze the factors affecting population vulnerability to carbaryl, acute toxicity tests were conducted using Daphnia individuals of different body sizes under different food conditions. The test revealed that daphnid sensitivity to carbaryl increased greatly when food density was changed from a high food level to a low level. This food condition, of low availability, might be the condition to which the Daphnia populations were exposed at their density peak. The synergism of the negative impacts of anthropogenic and natural stresses such as insecticides and food shortage may control aquatic populations.     

Seasonal changes and population dynamics of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi after its first year of invasion in the Kiel Fjord, Western Baltic Sea

We analyzed the seasonal variations of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi weekly collected since its first record in the western Baltic Sea in October 2006. The distribution pattern together with the seasonal dynamics and population outbreaks in late summer 2007 indicate recent successfully establishment of M. leidyi in this area. Seasonal changes showed two periods of high reproductive activity characterized by a population structure dominated by small size classes, followed by an increase of larger ones. These results further revealed that the bulk of the population remains in deep layers during the periods of low population density, whereas it appeared situated in upper layers during the proliferation of the species. We further emphasized the strength of the population outbreaks, which can reach abundances >10-fold higher in time periods shorter than a week. The predatory impact this species may have in pelagic ecosystems warns on the importance of its recent range of expansion.     

Population fluctuation of Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) in forest and forest edge habitats in Tucumán province,Argentina

The aim of this work was to study the possible effects of forest and forest edge habitats on the population fluctuation of the Anopheles species in northwestern Argentina, taking into consideration the relationship between this fluctuation and climatic variables. This study is one of the first that involves the Anopheles fauna in the country and its dynamics in two different habitats. Sampling was carried out from October, 2002 to October, 2003, in the forest and on the forest edge. Both habitats were compared for species diversity and abundance, and multiple regression analyses were performed to analyze the effects of environmental variables on the population dynamics. Five hundred and sixteen adult specimens of Anopheles species were collected, the most numerous group being Arribalzaga (52.1%), followed by Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) strodei (20.5%) and Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) evansae (6.4%). Mosquito abundance was greatest in the forest, the most productive habitat. Samples were collected throughout the sampling period, with a smaller peak in summer. Small numbers of Anopheles (Anopheles) pseudopunctipennis were found throughout the year. Relative humidity, with a 15‐day delay, was the factor that most strongly contributed to the temporal sample fluctuation. We conclude that the best season for anopheline development in the study area is from spring to fall, although the period with the greatest transmission risk is the fall, with the greatest An. pseudopunctipennis abundance.     

A relative shortage of nitrogenous food in the ecology of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

The disparity between the distribution and abundance of the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) and its major food trees (Eucalyptus spp.) is examined in terms of the essential oil content of the leaves, the influence of weather, social behaviour, and the level of available nitrogenous food. The essential oils are considered to be relatively unimportant since the koala has the ability to detoxify them. It is proposed that the level of available nitrogenous food is the major limiting influence on the abundance of the koala. Social behaviour enables a few koalas to acquire sufficient food while the majority of the population is subject to a relative shortage of food. The weather varies the local availability of adequate nitrogenous food by its influence on leaf growth in the eucalypts. Unusually favourable weather or inappropriate management which lead to a local increase in the availability of young growing leaves (flush growth) may result in outbreaks in koala numbers.     

云南西双版纳桔小实蝇种群动态

于1997年、2000年和2003年在云南西双版纳通过性诱剂诱捕对桔小实蝇种群动态进行了全年监测,并就气候因子及寄主种类对该种群变动的影响进行了系统分析.结果表明,桔小实蝇在西双版纳常年发生.当年11月至次年2月,桔小实蝇种群处于较低水平,3月以后种群数量逐渐上升,至6～7月形成一个种群增长高峰,此后至10月种群数量迅速下降.分析表明,影响桔小实蝇种群变化的重要因子是温度、降雨量和寄主种类.西双版纳各月均温位于桔小实蝇适温范围内,但12～2月的月平均最低温度低于桔小实蝇的适温范围,对桔小实蝇种群数量有一定抑制作用.降雨量是影响桔小实蝇种群数量变动的另一重要因子.月降雨量低于50 mm以下对桔小实蝇种群不利,而100～200 mm的月降雨量有助于桔小实蝇种群的增长.月降雨量大于250 mm以上将导致桔小实蝇种群数量下降.6～7月强降雨过程被认为是桔小实蝇在该时期种群数量下降的主要原因.芒果、番石榴、桃、梨、柑桔、龙眼和荔枝是桔小实蝇在该地区的主要寄主水果.其中,芒果和龙眼是当地桔小实蝇最喜好的寄主水果,其种植面积、挂果期和产量对桔小实蝇种群数量变动影响较大,被认为是影响该地区桔小实蝇种群变动的又一主要因素.     

Patterns and processes of population dynamics with fluctuating habitat size: a case study of a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools

The logistic model is a fundamental population model often used as the basis for analyzing wildlife population dynamics. In the classic logistic model, however, population dynamics may be difficult to characterize if habitat size is temporally variable because population density can vary at a constant abundance, which results in variable strength of density‐dependent feedback for a given population size. To incorporate habitat size variability, we developed a general population model in which changes in population abundance, density, and habitat size are taken into account. From this model, we deduced several predictions for patterns and processes of population dynamics: 1) patterns of fluctuation in population abundance and density can diverge, with respect of their correlation and relative variability; and 2) along with density dependence, habitat size fluctuation can affect population growth with a time lag because changes in habitat size result in changes in population density. In order to test these predictions, we applied our model to population dynamics data of 36 populations of Tigriopus japonicus, a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools of variable sizes caused by weather processes. As expected, we found a significant difference in the fluctuation patterns of population abundance and density of T. japonicus populations with respect to the correlation between abundance and density and their relative variability, which correlates positively with the variability of habitat size. In addition, we found direct and lagged‐indirect effects of weather processes on population growth, which were associated with density dependence and impose regulatory forces on local and regional population dynamics. These results illustrate how changes in habitat size can have an impact on patterns and processes of wildlife population dynamics. We suggest that without knowledge of habitat size fluctuation, measures of population size and its variability as well as inferences about the processes of population dynamics may be misleading.     

Interpopulation differences in pupal size and fecundity are not associated with occurrence of outbreaks in Epirrita autumnata (Lepidoptera, Geometridae)

Abstract.

• 1 Among-population differences in pupal mass were studied in a geometrid, Epirrita autumnata. Some Epirrita autumnata populations regularly reach outbreak densities while others are never known to do so. Because adults do not feed, pupal mass of females correlates strongly with fecundity.
• 2 Larvae were collected from twelve field sites. Ten of our sample populations originated within the outbreak range of the species and represented different phases of outbreaks. Two populations originated outside the outbreak range.
• 3 Pupal mass of field-collected E. autumnata varied significantly among populations. The peak phase populations had the smallest pupae and the biggest were found in low density populations outside the outbreak range.
• 4 Offspring of moths from each population were reared under identical conditions in two larval densities. Significant differences were not found in pupal mass among populations. That is, the inherent size, correlated with fecundity of moths, was not different between populations originating within and outside the outbreak range, nor among collections from different densities or phases of the outbreaks.
• 5 Rearing density did not interact in a consistent way with population.
• 6 As far as size and fecundity are concerned, the results do not support Chitty's hypothesis that differences in genetic composition of the population at low and high density phases generate cyclic fluctuations of population density.
• 7 Because no hereditary or maternal differences were found in size and fecundity between E.autumnata originating within and outside the outbreak range, variation in reproductive capacity cannot explain why outbreaks occur only in some populations.

     

Comparative analysis of population characteristics of the brown planthopper,Nilaparvata lugens stål,between wet and dry rice cropping seasons in West Java,Indonesia

Population dynamics of the brown planthopper (BPH),Nilaparvata lugens Stål, were investigated in paddy fields in the coastal lowland of West Java, Indonesia, where rice is cultivated twice a year, in the wet and dry cropping seasons. Distinct differences in the basic features of population dynamics were detected between the two rice cropping seasons: (1) In the wet season, BPH populations multiplied rapidly in the period from initial to peak generation, reaching quite often the destructive level despite the low density of initial immigrants. However, in the dry season, the population growth rate and the peak population density were much lower than those in the wet season. The abundance of natural enemies such as arthropod predators played a major role in determining such a difference in seasonal population development. (2) The density at the peak generation or the occurrence of outbreaks in each field was predictable in the wet season with fairly high accuracy on the basis of the density at the initial or previous seasonal generations. In the dry season, however, the rate of population growth and the peak population density widely varied among the fields depending on the water status in each field. (3) Density-dependent processes to regulate the population density were detected in both cropping seasons. In the wet season, the regulatory processes were only detected in such high densities as cause the considerable deterioration of host plants, which suggested that the processes were largely attributable to intra-specific competition. In the dry season, however, the regulatory processes operated at a much lower density in the earlier stages of the crops. The results of an analysis of adult longevity or residence period suggested that the density-dependent dispersal of macropterous adults played an important role in stabilizing the population fluctuation among the fields in the early dry season.     

Local factors associated with on‐host flea distributions on prairie dog colonies

Outbreaks of plague, a flea‐vectored bacterial disease, occur periodically in prairie dog populations in the western United States. In order to understand the conditions that are conducive to plague outbreaks and potentially predict spatial and temporal variations in risk, it is important to understand the factors associated with flea abundance and distribution that may lead to plague outbreaks. We collected and identified 20,041 fleas from 6,542 individual prairie dogs of four different species over a 4‐year period along a latitudinal gradient from Texas to Montana. We assessed local climate and other factors associated with flea prevalence and abundance, as well as the incidence of plague outbreaks. Oropsylla hirsuta, a prairie dog specialist flea, and Pulex simulans, a generalist flea species, were the most common fleas found on our pairs. High elevation pairs in Wyoming and Utah had distinct flea communities compared with the rest of the study pairs. The incidence of prairie dogs with Yersinia pestis detections in fleas was low (n = 64 prairie dogs with positive fleas out of 5,024 samples from 4,218 individual prairie dogs). The results of our regression models indicate that many factors are associated with the presence of fleas. In general, flea abundance (number of fleas on hosts) is higher during plague outbreaks, lower when prairie dogs are more abundant, and reaches peak levels when climate and weather variables are at intermediate levels. Changing climate conditions will likely affect aspects of both flea and host communities, including population densities and species composition, which may lead to changes in plague dynamics. Our results support the hypothesis that local conditions, including host, vector, and environmental factors, influence the likelihood of plague outbreaks, and that predicting changes to plague dynamics under climate change scenarios will have to consider both host and vector responses to local factors.     

Perturbation experiments and fluctuation enhancement in finite size of lattice ecosystems: Uncertainty in top-predator conservation

Study of perturbation experiments is crucial for conservation biology. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations on finite-size lattices composed of n species (n ≤ 4). The value of mortality rate m of top predator is altered to a higher or lower level, and a fluctuation enhancement (FE) is explored. Here FE means an uncertainty in population dynamics. It is found for n ≥ 2 that FE is observed, when m is decreased. Namely, when we protect the top predator, its population dynamics becomes very difficult to predict.