Sea ice affects the population dynamics of Adélie penguins in Terre Adélie

Overall Adélie penguin population size in Pointe Géologie Archipelago increased between 1984 and 2003 at a rate of 1.77% per year, and averaged 33,726±5,867 pairs. As predicted by the optimum model proposed by Smith et al. (Bioscience 49:393–404, 1999). Adélie penguin population size increased when sea ice extent and concentration (SIE and SIC) decreased six years earlier, indicating that the conditions around reproduction or first years at sea, were determinant. The breeding success averaged 85.2±35.45% and was not related to environmental variables. Adult survival probability varied between years from 0.64 to 0.82. Southern oscillation index (SOI) had a strong negative effect on adult annual survival. Adult survival of Adélie penguins increased during warmer events, especially during winter and spring at the beginning of reproduction. Therefore, we speculate that the rapid decreases in 1988–1991 and 1996 of the breeding population size were related to a decrease in adult mortality. However, adult survival varied little, and could not explain the strong increasing population trend. The sea ice conditions during breeding or during the first year at sea appeared determinant and influenced the population dynamics through cohort effects, probably related to the availability of productive feeding habitats.     

Long-term population trends in seven Antarctic seabirds at Pointe Géologie (Terre Adélie) Human impact compared with environmental change

Antarctic seabird populations have been much studied over the last decades as bioindicators of the nature of variability in the Southern Ocean marine ecosystem, and most attention has been focused on the role of food supply and the extent of sea ice. In addition, the rapid spread of tourism and the activities of researchers since the early 1960s have raised questions related to their real and potential impact on bird populations. Our data sets start in 1952 for several species of Antarctic seabirds and this study documents the trends over a 14-year period (1985–1999) in seven species breeding on Pointe Géologie archipelago (Terre Adélie, Antarctica). This is the first study where the direct impact of destruction of breeding sites (for building of an airstrip) is examined and where such long-term populations trends have been assessed in such a number of Antarctic species at one site. Trends from 1985 show that for the whole archipelago and when excluding islands destroyed, Adélie penguins and south polar skuas were the only species to show a significant increase (>3.5% annual change). The others species showed opposite trends, three increasing slightly (southern fulmars +0.4%, cape petrels +2.3%, snow petrels +0.9%) and two decreasing (emperor penguin −0.9%, southern giant petrel −3.9%). Three species particularly affected by the destruction of their breeding habitat (Adélie penguin, cape petrel, snow petrel) showed the capability to restore their populations. The availability of food and nesting sites is discussed in relation to environmental change. Species feeding on krill (Adélie penguins and cape petrels) increased more than other species; however, decrease of ice cover can increase availability of nesting sites. The importance of long-term studies is shown when assessing the role of human activities in Antarctica compared to larger-scale changes. Accepted: 18 September 2000     

High annual variability in reproductive success and survival of an Antarctic seabird,the snow petrel Pagodroma nivea

Demographic parameters were estimated for snow petrels Pagodroma nivea nesting at Pointe Géologie Archipelago, Adélie Land, Antarctica between 1963 and 1990; 21 years of data on adult survival and 27 years of data on breeding success are available. The average age of first return and first breeding were 8.1 and 9.9 years respectively and there was no signifcant difference between the sexes. The overall breeding success averaged 51.3% and was very variable between years (21–80%). Breeding failure was mostly due to incubation failure and annual breeding success was negatively correlated with average snow falls in October–November and October–March. Breeding frequency was very low, averaging 52% of seasons during a reproductive lifetime. Good quality sites, with high occupancy rate and high breeding success were few in the study plots. Poor years in 1966–1967, 1976–1977 and 1983–1984, with low breeding success, very low proportions of nets with breeding attempts and high numbers of non-breeders, occurred 1 year after large-scale El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Snow petrels exhibited very low philopatry. Only 45 birds have been recovered in the study plots from a total of 1115 banded fledglings giving an estimated rate of return of 12.9% between fledging and 3 years old. Annual survival between 3 and 10 years was 91.4%. Annual adult survival (93.4%), though variable, was low during poor years of 1977–1978 and 1983–1984. Adult survival of males (94.7%) was not significantly different from that of females (93.9%). Over the study period, the population of Pointe Géologie was stable. Using the estimated parameters, a Leslie model gave a growth rate of 0.948%, which was probably compensated by immigration (5.7% per year). Restricted numbers of good-quality sites at the place of birth could have led young birds to prospect other colonies and could have selected low philopatry. High adult survival, strong site tenacity and capacity to spread breeding over a long lifetime are probably part of the adaptive strategy of this small fulmarine petrel facing highly variable environmental conditions.     

First census of breeding seabirds between Cap Bienvenue (Terre Adélie) and Moyes Islands (King George V Land), Antarctica: new records for Antarctic seabird populations

Breeding population sizes of penguins, fulmarine etrels and skuas were estimated for the first time on a major part of the Terre Adélie coast and a section of the King George V Land coast during the 1997/1998 austral summer. We counted 106,400 breeding pairs and 12,400 Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) chicks by direct counts, and 6960 breeding pairs from aerial photographs. Minimum breeding populations for other species are (direct counts): Antarctic fulmar (Fulmarus glacialoides) 6861 pairs, Antarctic petrel (Thalassoica antarctica) 4574 pairs, cape petrel (Daption capense) 194 pairs, snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea) 767 pairs, south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) 129 pairs and subantarctic skua (Catharacta lonnbergi) 1 breeding bird. We discovered 29 new seabird breeding locations in King George V Land, including 6 Antarctic fulmar, 4 Antarctic petrel, 3 cape petrel, 6 snow petrel and 10 south polar skua colonies. The largest colonies found contained up to 4205 breeding pairs of Antarctic fulmars. Population sizes of all species obtained in this study are higher than those found during previous partial surveys. Although these differences are in great part due to differences in survey methods, they also reflect real population changes. Our minimum population sizes obtained for a small portion of the Antarctic coast (<2%) suggest an underestimation of the estimated world breeding populations for several species of Antarctic seabirds. Accepted: 28 August 1998     

Individual heterogeneity in life-history trade-offs with age at first reproduction in capital breeding elephant seals

Recruitment age plays a key role in life-history evolution. Because individuals allocate limited resources among competing life-history functions, theory predicts trade-offs between current reproduction and future growth, survival and/or reproduction. Reproductive costs tend to vary with recruitment age, but may also be overridden by fixed individual differences leading to persistent demographic heterogeneity and positive covariation among demographic traits at the population level. We tested for evidence of intra- and inter-generational trade-offs and individual heterogeneity relating to age at first reproduction using three decades of detailed individual life-history data of 6,439 capital breeding female southern elephant seals. Contrary to the predictions from trade-off hypotheses, we found that recruitment at an early age was associated with higher population level survival and subsequent breeding probabilities. Nonetheless, a survival cost of first reproduction was evident at the population level, as first-time breeders always had lower survival probabilities than prebreeders and experienced breeders of the same age. However, models accounting for hidden persistent demographic heterogeneity revealed that the trade-off between first reproduction and survival was only expressed in “low quality” individuals, comprising 35% of the population. The short-term somatic costs associated with breeding at an early age had no effect on the ability of females to allocate resources to offspring in the next breeding season. Our results provide strong evidence for individual heterogeneity in the life-history trajectories of female elephant seals. By explicitly modeling hidden persistent demographic heterogeneity we show that individual heterogeneity governs the expression of trade-offs with first reproduction in elephant seals.     

Besprechungen / Reviews

Book Reviewed in this article: ed. Wehner , R. (1972): Information Processing in the Visual Systems of Arthropods (Nachrichtenübermittlung im Sehsystem von Arthropoden). Pooley , A. C. (1974): Parental care in the Nile Crocodile. Isenmann , P. (1971): Contribution à l'éthologie et à l'écologie du Manchot empereur (Aptenodytes forsteri Gray) à la colonie de Pointe Géologie (Terre Adélie) (Weitere Befunde zur Ethologie und Ökologie des Kaiserpinguins in der Kolonie bei Pointe Géologie). Grant , T. R. (1974): Observations of enclosed and free-ranging grey kangaroos Macropus giganteus (Beobachtungen an gefangengehaltenen und freilebenden Riesenkänguruhs). Schaller , G. B., und A. Laurie (1974): Courtship behaviour of the wild goat (Das Brunftverhalten der Bezoarziege). Schenkel , R., und L. Schenkel-Hulliger (1969): Ecology and Behaviour of the Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis L.) Jungius , H. (1971): The Biology and Behaviour of the Reedbuck (Redunca arundinum, Boddaert 1785) in the Kruger National Park (Die Lebensweise des Großen Riedbocks (R. a.) im KNP). Heidemann , G. (1973): Zur Biologie des Damwildes (Cervus dama Linné, 1758). Reihe: Mammalia depicta, Heft 9. Hediger , H. (1974): Wie Hirsche Obst ernten… “Das Tier” H. 9 , S. 22—24. Gardner , R. Allen, und Beatrice T. Gardner (1972): Communication with a young chimpanzee: Washoe's vocabulary.     

Survival and Breeding Transitions for a Reintroduced Bison Population: a Multistate Approach

Abstract: The iconic plains bison (Bison bison) have been reintroduced to many places in their former range, but there are few scientific data evaluating the success of these reintroductions or guiding the continued management of these populations. Relying on mark-recapture data, we used a multistate model to estimate bison survival and breeding transition probabilities while controlling for the recapture process. We tested hypotheses in these demographic parameters associated with age, sex, reproductive state, and environmental variables. We also estimated biological process variation in survival and breeding transition probabilities by factoring out sampling variation. The recapture rate of females and calves was high (0.78 ± 0.15 [SE]) and much lower for males (0.41 ± 0.23), especially older males (0.17 ± 0.15). We found that overall bison survival was high (>0.8) and that males (0.80 ± 0.13) survived at lower rates than females (0.94 ± 0.04), but as females aged survival declined (0.89 ± 0.05 for F ≥15 yr old). Lactating and non-lactating females survived at similar rates. We found that females can conceive early (approx. 1.5 yr of age) and had a high probability (approx. 0.8) of breeding in consecutive years, until age 13.5 years, when females that were non-lactating tended to stay in that state. Our results suggest senescence in reproduction and survival for females. We found little support for the effect of climatic covariates on demographic rates, perhaps because the park's current population management goals were predicated from drought-year conditions. This reintroduction has been successful, but continued culling actions will need to be employed and an adaptive management approach is warranted. Our demographic approach can be applied to other heavily managed large-ungulate systems with few or no natural predators.     

Foraging movements of emperor penguins at Pointe Géologie, Antarctica

The foraging distributions of 20 breeding emperor penguins were investigated at Pointe Géologie, Terre Adélie, Antarctica by using satellite telemetry in 2005 and 2006 during early and late winter, as well as during late spring and summer, corresponding to incubation, early chick-brooding, late chick-rearing and the adult pre-moult period, respectively. Dive depth records of three post-egg-laying females, two post-incubating males and four late chick-rearing adults were examined, as well as the horizontal space use by these birds. Foraging ranges of chick-provisioning penguins extended over the Antarctic shelf and were constricted by winter pack-ice. During spring ice break-up, the foraging ranges rarely exceeded the shelf slope, although seawater access was apparently almost unlimited. Winter females appeared constrained in their access to open water but used fissures in the sea ice and expanded their prey search effort by expanding the horizontal search component underwater. Birds in spring however, showed higher area-restricted-search than did birds in winter. Despite different seasonal foraging strategies, chick-rearing penguins exploited similar areas as indicated by both a high ‘Area-Restricted-Search Index’ and high ‘Catch Per Unit Effort’. During pre-moult trips, emperor penguins ranged much farther offshore than breeding birds, which argues for particularly profitable oceanic feeding areas which can be exploited when the time constraints imposed by having to return to a central place to provision the chick no longer apply.     

The demography of Yellow Wagtails Motacilla flava on abandoned fields in northern European Russia

Capsule Apparent survival rates of Yellow Wagtails breeding in abandoned fields in Russia are determined by previous breeding success.

Aims To examine apparent survival and its link to previous breeding success in Yellow Wagtails breeding in abandoned fields in the Vologda region, northern European Russia.

Methods We ringed and measured apparent survival of Yellow Wagtails at two abandoned agricultural sites over eight years (2005–2012). We modelled the impact of age, nest stage, and time of season on daily nest survival rates.

Results Predation was the main cause of nest failure. Nest daily survival rate was highest at the beginning of the breeding season. Overall nest survival probability was 0.40?±?0.02. Adult apparent survival after successful breeding was 0.42?±?0.06 and after unsuccessful breeding this was 0.13?±?0.06.

Conclusion Reproductive success can be regarded as the crucial demographic parameter of the local Yellow Wagtail population in northern European Russia. Apparent survival after successful breeding is significantly higher than after unsuccessful breeding, because unsuccessful breeders probably move to new breeding sites the following year. High adult survival may be particularly important to Yellow Wagtail population dynamics in the study region, because second breeding attempts are apparently unusual.     

Sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in a long-lived seabird

Costs of reproduction on survival have captured the attention of researchers since life history theory was formulated. Adults of long-lived species may increase survival by reducing their breeding effort or even skipping reproduction. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the costs of current reproduction on survival and whether skipping reproduction increases adult survival in a long-lived seabird. We used capture–mark–recapture data (1450 encounters) from two populations of Bulwer''s petrel (Bulweria bulwerii), breeding in the Azores and Canary Islands, North Atlantic Ocean. Using a multi-event model with two different breeding statuses (breeders versus non-breeders), we calculated probabilities of survival and of transitions between breeding statuses, evaluating potential differences between sexes. Females had lower survival probabilities than males, independent of their breeding status. When considering breeding status, breeding females had lower survival probabilities than non-breeding females, suggesting costs of reproduction on survival. Breeding males had higher survival probabilities than non-breeding males, suggesting that males do not incur costs of reproduction on survival and that only the highest quality males have access to breeding. The highest and the lowest probabilities of skipping reproduction were found in breeding males from the Azores and in breeding males from the Canary Islands, respectively. Intermediate values were observed in the females from both populations. This result is probably due to differences in the external factors affecting both populations, essentially predation pressure and competition. The existence of sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in several populations of this long-lived species may have important implications for species population dynamics.     

Emigration in emperor penguins: implications for interpretation of long‐term studies

Site fidelity is an important evolutionary trait to understand, as misinterpretation of philopatric behavior could lead to confusion over the key drivers of population dynamics and the environmental or anthropogenic factors influencing populations. Our objective was to explore the hypothesis that emperor penguins are strictly philopatric using satellite imagery, counts from aerial photography, and literature reports on emperor penguin distributions. We found six instances over three years in which emperor penguins did not return to the same location to breed. We also report on one newly‐discovered colony on the Antarctic Peninsula that may represent the relocation of penguins from the Dion Islands, recently confirmed as having been abandoned. Using evidence from aerial surveys and the historical literature, we suggest that emigration may have been partly responsible for the population decline at Pointe Géologie during the 1970s. Our study is the first to use remote sensing imagery to suggest that emperor penguins can and do move between, and establish new, colonies. Metapopulation dynamics of emperor penguins have not been previously considered and represent an exciting, and important, avenue for future research. Life history plasticity is increasingly being recognized as an important aspect of climate change adaptation, and in this regard our study offers new insight for the long‐term future of emperor penguins.     

Partial life cycle analysis: a model for pre-breeding census data

Matrix population models have become popular tools in research areas as diverse as population dynamics, life history theory, wildlife management, and conservation biology. Two classes of matrix models are commonly used for demographic analysis of age‐structured populations: age‐structured (Leslie) matrix models, which require age‐specific demographic data, and partial life cycle models, which can be parameterized with partial demographic data. Partial life cycle models are easier to parameterize because data needed to estimate parameters for these models are collected much more easily than those needed to estimate age‐specific demographic parameters. Partial life cycle models also allow evaluation of the sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in ages at first and last reproduction, which cannot be done with age‐structured models. Timing of censuses relative to the birth‐pulse is an important consideration in discrete‐time population models but most existing partial life cycle models do not address this issue, nor do they allow fractional values of variables such as ages at first and last reproduction. Here, we fully develop a partial life cycle model appropriate for situations in which demographic data are collected immediately before the birth‐pulse (pre‐breeding census). Our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model can be fully parameterized with five variables (age at maturity, age at last reproduction, juvenile survival rate, adult survival rate, and fertility), and it has some important applications even when age‐specific demographic data are available (e.g., perturbation analysis involving ages at first and last reproduction). We have extended the model to allow non‐integer values of ages at first and last reproduction, derived formulae for sensitivity analyses, and presented methods for estimating parameters for our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model. We applied the age‐structured Leslie matrix model and our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model to demographic data for several species of mammals. Our results suggest that dynamical properties of the age‐structured model are generally retained in our partial life cycle model, and that our pre‐breeding census partial life cycle model is an excellent proxy for the age‐structured Leslie matrix model.     

A comprehensive demographic assessment of the endangered Fiordland crested penguin Eudyptes pachyrhynchus

ABSTRACT

Many species of Eudyptes penguin have shown substantial population declines and in response, there have been efforts to identify the key demographic parameters. Here, we present the demographic parameters of one of the least well known and the least abundant species of crested penguin, the endangered Fiordland crested penguin Eudyptes pachyrhynchus. A population study incorporating mark–recapture, nest occupancy and breeding success was conducted over 16 years at several sites in the northern half of the range of the species. Survival probabilities were calculated using standard Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and the Burnham Live and Dead model. The annual probability of true survival for banded birds and apparent survival for birds with transponders were both estimated at 89% during their adult years, which is similar to that reported for Eudyptes penguin species inhabiting more southerly latitudes. Annual juvenile survival was assessed for Fiordland crested penguins until their first return at 77%. The mean breeding success (0.61?±?0.02 chicks/pair) was higher than is observed for other crested penguin species, except the southern rockhopper penguin, which may be due to having lower A-egg ejection rates and higher rates of fledging two chicks per pair. Breeding success was related to the niche of predators present.     

Sooty Falcon Falco concolor reproduction and population dynamics on the islands in the Sea of Oman

Knowledge of demographic parameters affecting population dynamics is critical to the formulation of effective conservation strategies. Sooty Falcon Falco concolor is a little‐studied, Near‐threatened species; estimates of global population size and trend for this species are uncertain. They lay eggs during mid‐summer and sometimes nest in colonies. This unusual breeding ecology suggests that demographic parameters driving their population growth rate may differ from those of most other falcons. We studied Sooty Falcon reproduction at breeding aggregations on Fahal Island and the Daymaniyat islands in the Sea of Oman during 2007–2014, modelled population growth and identified important life history parameters using elasticity analysis. The mean (± se) clutch and brood size was 2.83 ± 0.06 and 2.11 ± 0.07, respectively. Overall, 11.7% of nests failed between the egg and nestling stages, and the failure rate differed significantly between Fahal and the Daymaniyats, and across years. The mean proportion of eggs that hatched annually was 0.66 ± 0.02, and broods were significantly smaller on the Daymaniyats than on Fahal. Falcons on Fahal Island had a higher rate of hatching, a higher rate of nests that produced at least one chick, and produced more chicks per nest than on the Daymaniyats. We suggest that Fahal's proximity to the mainland gives breeding Sooty Falcons access to a more plentiful and stable source of food, especially during the period between arrival from the wintering grounds and the onset of the autumn migration of prey birds, resulting in the better reproductive rates for falcons on Fahal Island, relative to those on the Daymaniyat Islands. The annual asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75–0.99), suggesting a declining population, although Sooty Falcons enjoyed a slightly higher population growth rate on Fahal than on the Daymaniyats. Because our study population is on the edge of the breeding range and is isolated from other breeding areas, measures to improve reproductive success of Sooty Falcons breeding on the islands in the Sea of Oman could be important for conservation of Sooty Falcons in Oman.     

How do weather conditions affect the huddling behaviour of emperor penguins?

Huddling allows emperor penguins to conserve energy and survive their long winter fast while facing harsh climatic conditions. Here we report the first investigation into the effects of changes in wind speed and ambient temperature on different components of penguin huddling behaviour. We attached light and temperature recorders to male emperor penguins at the Pointe Géologie colony, Antarctica, which recorded huddling events. We then compared the frequency, duration, occurrence and intensity of huddling bouts, with ambient air temperatures and wind speeds. Huddling occurrence increased with lower ambient temperatures and higher wind speeds, whereas huddling intensity was mainly enhanced by lower ambient temperatures. Moreover, huddling group movements were linked to wind direction and its global density to lower ambient temperatures. Hence, emperor penguins complex huddling behaviour was modulated differently depending on these two parameters. Weather conditions may then affect emperor penguins ability to save energy and survive their winter fast.     

Dispersal and recruitment during population growth in a colonial bird, the great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis

While the factors influencing reproduction and survival in colonial populations are relatively well studied, factors involved in dispersal and settlement decisions are not well understood. The present study investigated exchanges of great cormorants Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis among six breeding colonies over a 13‐year period when the breeding population in Denmark increased from 2800 to 36 400 nests. We used a multistate capture‐recapture model that combined multisite resightings and recoveries to examine simultaneously recruitment, natal dispersal, breeding dispersal and annual survival of first‐year, immature and breeding great cormorants. Mean survival of first‐year birds (0.50±0.09, range=0.42–0.66 among colonies) was lower than survival of breeders (0.90±0.06, range=0.81–0.97). Mean survival of immature birds over the study period was 0.87±0.08. Dispersal from a colony increased with decreasing mean brood size in the colony in both first‐time and experienced breeders. The choice of the settlement colony in first‐time breeders was affected by conditions in the natal colony and in the colonies prospected during the pre‐breeding years. In particular, first‐time breeders recruited to colonies where they could expect better breeding success. Experienced breeders relied mainly on cues present early in the season and on their own breeding experience to choose a new breeding colony. Newly established colonies resulted mainly from the immigration of first‐time breeders originating from denser colonies. Dispersal was distance‐dependent and first‐time breeders dispersed longer distances than breeders. We suggest that the prospecting behaviour allows first‐time breeders to recruit in nearby as well as more distant potential breeding colonies. Dispersing breeders preferred to settle in neighbouring colonies likely to benefit from their experience with foraging areas. We discuss the importance of these movements for growth and expansion of the breeding population.     

Life on the edge: the demography of short-season populations of deer mice

We documented populations of deer mice in the Kananaskis Valley, southwestern Alberta, Canada from 1979 to 1997 to determine whether these short-season populations were more, or less, variable than populations in more temperate environments. We then examined patterns of reproduction, age-specific survival, and immigration to explain variation in summer population growth. Population densities showed no multi-annual periodicity and were generally low. At maximum, numbers doubled over the breeding season, but declined over the breeding season in 4 of 16 yr. Variability in population density was low, and similar to that of Peromyscus populations in more temperate environments. No demographic parameters were related to spring population densities, and immigration rates were low when conditions for survival of nestlings and adults were favorable. Variation in summer population growth was attributed primarily to variation in nestling survival among years.     

Modelling the effect of fishing on southern Buller's albatross using a 60-year dataset

Abstract

Many albatross populations are declining and a major cause is believed to be incidental mortality from fishing. We investigated the effect of fishing on southern Buller's albatross Thalassarche bulleri bulleri, using a new approach to seabird population modelling that allows estimation of demographic parameters from multiple data types. Three types of data were used: a 60-year set of mark–recapture observations, four censuses of the breeding population, and estimates of fishing effort and bycatch. The fisheries risk to the viability of this population over the last 60 years appears to have been small, since the adult population is estimated to have increased about five-fold over that time. There is some cause for concern in recent changes (population growth has slowed, and perhaps reversed, and adult survival rates are falling). The most common age at first breeding was 12 years, and about 80% of adults breed each year. Annual survival was estimated to be 0.91 for juveniles, and varied between this value and 1 for adults. Though this population is not in immediate danger from fishing, there is a need for continued monitoring to see whether the recent fall in survival rates persists and causes a decline in abundance. Our analysis showed that when, as is common, mark–recapture data do not provide good estimates of all demographic rates, the assessment of seabird population trends can be improved by the use of other types of data, particularly abundance.     

Age‐specific survival and recruitment of piping plovers Charadrius melodus in the Great Lakes region

Juvenile survival and age at first breeding (i.e. recruitment) are critical parameters affecting population dynamics in birds, but high levels of natal dispersal preclude measurement of these variables in most species. We used multi‐state capture–recapture models to measure age‐specific survival and recruitment probabilities of piping plovers Charadrius melodus in the Great Lakes region during 1993–2012. This federally endangered population is thoroughly monitored throughout its entire breeding range, minimizing concerns that measures of survival and recruitment are confounded by temporary or permanent emigration. First‐year survival (± SE) averaged 0.284 ± 0.019 from mean banding age (9 d) and 0.374 ± 0.023 from fledging age (23 d). Factors that increased first‐year survival during the pre‐fledging period (9–23 d) included earlier hatching dates, older age at banding, greater number of fledglings at a given site, and better body condition at time of banding. However, when chicks that died prior to fledging were excluded from analysis, only earlier hatching dates improved first‐year survival estimates. Females had a higher probability (0.557 ± 0.066) of initiating breeding at age one than did males (0.353 ± 0.052), but virtually all plovers began breeding by age three. Adult survival was reduced by increased hurricane activity on the southeast U.S. Atlantic coast where Great Lakes piping plovers winter and by higher populations of merlins Falco columbarius. Mean annual adult survival declined from 1993 to 2012, and did not differ between males and females. Enhanced body condition led to higher survival to fledge and early breeding led to improved first‐year survival; therefore, management actions focused on ensuring access to quality feeding habitat for growing young and protecting early nests may increase recruitment in this federally endangered population.     

Evolution of allometries in the worker caste of Dorylus army ants

We investigated the effect of local environment on the demography and population dynamics of arctic ground squirrels ( Spermophilus parryii plesius ) by comparing reproduction, survival, and population trends of squirrels living in low elevation boreal forest and high elevation alpine tundra sites in southwestern Yukon Territory, Canada. Contrary to the trend for most birds and mammals, reproduction was significantly lower at the lower elevation and females living at higher elevation did not delay the age at which they first reproduced. Even though survival in the boreal forest was lower in summer than in the alpine, it was higher over winter so annual adult female survival was similar between sites.
Sensitivity analysis of model parameters revealed that in the forest, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to small changes in adult active season survival whereas for the alpine population, λ was most sensitive to changes in juvenile winter survival. In their respective habitats, these parameters also showed high year to year variation and thus contributed greatly to the population trends observed. Even though ground squirrels persisted in the boreal forest, the measured demographic rates indicate the forest was sink habitat (λ<1) and may have relied on nearby grassy meadows for immigrants. In contrast, the alpine habitat maintained a ground squirrel population in the absence of immigration (λ=1).
The variation in demographic rates between ground squirrels living at high and low elevation may arise from phenotypic responses of squirrels to different habitat structure. Arctic ground squirrels rely on sight to detect predators from a safe distance, and the boreal forest, with its lower visibility and higher predator density, appears to be suboptimal habitat.