How climate change might influence the starvation–predation risk trade-off response

Climate change within the UK will affect winter starvation risk because higher temperatures reduce energy budgets and are likely to increase the quality of the foraging environment. Mass regulation in birds is a consequence of the starvation–predation risk trade-off: decreasing starvation risk because of climate change should decrease mass, but this will be countered by the effects of predation risk, because high predation risk has a negative effect on mass when foraging conditions are poor and a positive effect on mass when foraging conditions are good. We tested whether mass regulation in great tits (Parus major) across the UK was related to temporal changes in starvation risk (winter temperature 1995–2005) and spatial changes in predation risk (sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus abundance). As predicted, great tits carried less mass during later, warmer, winters, demonstrating that starvation risk overall has decreased. Also, the effects of predation risk interacted with the effects of temperature (as an index of foraging conditions), so that in colder winters higher sparrowhawk abundance led to lower mass, whereas in warmer, later, winters higher sparrowhawk abundance led to higher mass. Mass regulation in a small bird species may therefore provide an index of how environmental change is affecting the foraging environment.     

Mass-dependent predation risk and lethal dolphin-porpoise interactions

In small birds, mass-dependent predation risk (MDPR) is known to make the trade-off between avoiding starvation and avoiding predation dependent on individual mass. This occurs because carrying increased fat reserves not only reduces starvation risk but also results in a higher predation risk due to reduced escape flight performance and/or the increased foraging exposure needed to maintain a higher body mass. In principle, the theory of MDPR could also apply to any animal capable of storing energy reserves to reduce starvation and whose escape performance decreases with increasing mass. We used a unique situation along certain parts of coastal Britain, where harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) are pursued and killed but crucially not eaten by bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), to investigate whether a MDPR effect can occur in non-avian species. We show that where high levels of dolphin 'predation' occur, porpoises carry significantly less energy reserves than would otherwise be expected and this equates to reducing by approximately 37% the length of time that a porpoise could survive without feeding. These results provide the first evidence that a mass-dependent starvation-predation risk trade-off may be a general ecological principle that can apply to widely different animal types rather than, as is currently thought, only to birds.     

Mass regulation in response to predation risk can indicate population declines

In theory, survival rates and consequent population status might be predictable from instantaneous behavioural measures of how animals prioritize foraging vs. avoiding predation. We show, for the 30 most common small bird species ringed in the UK, that one quarter respond to higher predation risk as if it is mass-dependent and lose mass. Half respond to predation risk as if it only interrupts their foraging and gain mass thus avoiding consequent increased starvation risk from reduced foraging time. These mass responses to higher predation risk are correlated with population and conservation status both within and between species (and independently of foraging habitat, foraging guild, sociality index and size) over the last 30 years in Britain, with mass loss being associated with declining populations and mass gain with increasing populations. If individuals show an interrupted foraging response to higher predation risk, they are likely to be experiencing a high quality foraging environment that should lead to higher survival. Whereas individuals that show a mass-dependent foraging response are likely to be in lower quality foraging environments, leading to relatively lower survival.     

Evidence of the trade-off between starvation and predation risks in ducks

The theory of trade-off between starvation and predation risks predicts a decrease in body mass in order to improve flight performance when facing high predation risk. To date, this trade-off has mainly been validated in passerines, birds that store limited body reserves for short-term use. In the largest avian species in which the trade-off has been investigated (the mallard, Anas platyrhynchos), the slope of the relationship between mass and flight performance was steeper in proportion to lean body mass than in passerines. In order to verify whether the same case can be applied to other birds with large body reserves, we analyzed the response to this trade-off in two other duck species, the common teal (Anas crecca) and the tufted duck (Aythya fuligula). Predation risk was simulated by disturbing birds. Ducks within disturbed groups were compared to non-disturbed control birds. In disturbed groups, both species showed a much greater decrease in food intake and body mass during the period of simulated high risk than those observed in the control group. This loss of body mass allows reaching a more favourable wing loading and increases power for flight, hence enhancing flight performances and reducing predation risk. Moreover, body mass loss and power margin gain in both species were higher than in passerines, as observed in mallards. Our results suggest that the starvation-predation risk trade-off is one of the major life history traits underlying body mass adjustments, and these findings can be generalized to all birds facing predation. Additionally, the response magnitude seems to be influenced by the strategy of body reserve management.     

Food supplementation and predation risk in harsh climate: interactive effects on abundance and body condition of tit species

Food availability and predation risk can have drastic impacts on animal behaviour and populations. The tradeoff between foraging and predator avoidance is crucial for animal survival and will strongly affect individual body mass, since large fat reserves are beneficial to reduce starvation but may increase predation risk. However, two‐factor experiments simultaneously investigating the interactive effects of food and predation risk, are still rare. We studied the effects of food supplementation and natural predation risk imposed by pygmy owls Glaucidium passerinum on the abundance and fat reserves of tit species in boreal forests of north Europe, from January to March in 2012 and in 2013. Food supplementation increased the number of individuals present in a given forest patch, whereas the level of predation risk had no clear impact on the abundance of tit species. The stronger impact of food supply respect to predation risk could be the consequence of the harsh winter conditions in north Europe, with constant below‐zero temperatures and only few (5–7 h) daylight hours available for foraging. Predation risk did not have obvious effects on tit abundance but influenced food consumption and, together with food supplementation, affected the deposition of subcutaneous fat in great tits Parus major. High owl predation risk had detrimental effects on body fat reserves, which may reduce over‐winter survival, but the costs imposed by pygmy owl risk were compensated when food was supplemented. The starvation–predation tradeoff faced by great tits in winter may thus be mediated through variation in body fat reserves. In small species living in harsh environment, this tradeoff appeared thus to be biased towards avoidance of starvation, at the cost of increasing predation risk.     

Testing the mass-dependent predation hypothesis: in European blackbirds poor foragers have higher overwinter body reserves

As foraging becomes more unpredictable animals should increase their body reserves to reduce the risk of starvation. However, any increases in reserves may increase the risk of predation because extra mass probably compromises escape ability. Because of differences in foraging ability not all individuals will be affected in the same way by changes in foraging conditions. Relatively poor foragers will have more unpredictable foraging success for any given availability of food and therefore should carry larger body reserves. The mass-dependent predation hypothesis then predicts a negative correlation between levels of body reserves and foraging ability, although this may be modified by state-dependent compensation. I measured foraging rates and body masses of wintering European blackbirds, Turdus merula. Individuals with the lowest foraging rates had the largest gain in mass for the winter and had relatively high mass overall, independently of age and sex. That foraging rate determined mass rather than the reverse was demonstrated because foraging rate was independent of daily and seasonal mass change. Foraging rate within the experimental system was also independent of predation risk (as measured by distance from protective cover) and so the relation between mass and foraging rate was unlikely to have been confounded by any changes in vigilance to compensate for increased mass-dependent predation risk. The results suggest that blackbirds with high relative foraging rates have lower body reserves during the winter. Therefore there is probably a direct link between overwinter condition and fitness at least in blackbirds. Copyright 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.      

Stabilizing selection on body mass in the sociable weaver Philetairus socius

The survival of small birds is often believed to increase with increasing body mass, despite some evidence that body mass is usually maintained below the physiological maximum and that there are costs associated with high body mass, such as increased energetic expenditure and predation risk. In this study, we used an eight-year dataset to investigate survival in relation to body mass in a wild population of sociable weavers (Philetairus socius), a savannah-dwelling passerine bird. We present evidence for strong stabilizing selection on body mass, verifying the prediction that body mass probably results from a trade-off between the risks of starvation at low mass and predation at high mass.     

Breeding limits foraging time: evidence of interrupted foraging response from body mass variation in a tropical environment

Birds should store body reserves if starvation risk is anticipated; this is known as an ‘interrupted foraging response’. If foraging remains unrestricted, however, body mass should remain low to limit the predation risk that gaining and carrying body reserves entails. In temperate environments mass gain in female birds during breeding is often attributed to egg formation and mass loss after incubation to flight adaptation or the effect of reproductive workload, rather than as a result of an adaptive interrupted foraging response to the limited foraging time or unpredictable foraging conditions that breeding demands. In tropical environments, foraging conditions vary more within the breeding season than in temperate environments, and so studies in tropical environments are more suited to decouple the potentially confounded effects of increase in body reserves versus egg formation on the body mass of breeding birds. In this study, we test whether breeding results in an interrupted foraging response in a tropical savannah system using body mass data collected over a 15‐year period from female common bulbuls Pycnonotus barbatus. This species breeds both in the wet and dry season, despite fewer resources being available in the dry season. Breeding stage predicted female body mass: body mass peaked abruptly during incubation, but was not closely associated with the egg‐laying stage, and declined during brood rearing. Breeding females were heavier in the dry season than in the wet season. In the dry season, heavier birds were more likely to incubate eggs or brood chicks. These observations suggest that increased body reserves are required to buffer the consequence of limited foraging time or impoverished foraging conditions, which may be most pronounced during incubation and in the dry season, respectively. Such mass increases are consistent with an interrupted foraging response, which may apply to temperate zone birds experiencing foraging restrictions during breeding.     

Body mass variations in disturbed mallards Anas platyrhynchos fit to the mass‐dependent starvation‐predation risk trade‐off

For passerines the starvation‐predation risk theory predicts that birds should decrease their body mass to improve escape flight performance, when predation pressure increases. To investigate whether this theory may apply to large birds, which manage body reserves differently from small passerines, we experimentally increased the predation risk in mallards Anas platyrhynchos. Two groups were disturbed at different frequencies during experimental sessions lasting one week, while a control group was left undisturbed. We found that body mass loss and final wing loading were similar in both disturbed groups and significantly differed from the control group. Food intake in disturbed groups was reduced up to day four of the disturbance session and was lower than in the control group. Altogether our results suggest that disturbed mallards may adjust their body mass to reach a more favorable wing loading, supposedly to improve escape flight performance. Nevertheless, body mass loss in our mallards was double than what has been observed in passerines. This greater mass decrease might be explained by different strategies concerning energy storage. Furthermore, in large birds the predation component of the starvation‐predation trade‐off might be of greater importance. Hence, the observed relevance of this trade‐off over a large size range suggests that the starvation‐predation risk theory is of major ecological significance for many animal species.     

Adverse foraging conditions may impact body mass and survival of a high Arctic seabird

Tradeoffs between current reproduction and future survival are widely recognized, but may only occur when food is limited: when foraging conditions are favorable, parents may be able to reproduce without compromising their own survival. We investigated these tradeoffs in the little auk (Alle alle), a small seabird with a single-egg clutch. During 2005-2007, we examined the relationship between body mass and survival of birds breeding under contrasting foraging conditions at two Arctic colonies. We used corticosterone levels of breeding adults as a physiological indicator of the foraging conditions they encountered during each reproductive season. We found that when foraging conditions were relatively poor (as reflected in elevated levels of corticosterone), parents ended the reproductive season with low body mass and suffered increased post-breeding mortality. A positive relationship between body mass and post-breeding survival was found in one study year; light birds incurred higher survival costs than heavy birds. The results of this study suggest that reproducing under poor foraging conditions may affect the post-breeding survival of long-lived little auks. They also have important demographic implications because even a small change in adult survival may have a large effect on populations of long-lived species.     

Fat reserves and perceived predation risk in the great tit, Parus major

The fat reserves of small birds are built up daily as insurance against starvation. They are believed to reflect a trade-off between the risks of starvation and predation such that in situations of high predation risk birds are expected either to reduce their fat reserves in response to mass-dependent predation risk or to increase them in response to foraging interruptions. We assessed the effect on fat reserves of experimentally altering the perceived (but not the actual) risk of predation of wild great tits at a winter feeding site. The perceived predation risk was alternated between 'safe' and 'risky'. Increasing the perceived risk of predation involved 'swooping' a model sparrowhawk over the feeder at four unpredictable times each day using a remote mechanism We produce evidence that the experiment was suceessfull in altering the perceived risk of predation. As predicted from the hypothesis of mass-dependent predation risk, great tits (Parus major) carried significantly reduced fat reserves during the 'risky' treatment. Furthermore, dominant individuals were able to reduce their reserves more than subordinates. As birds returned to feeders within seconds after a predator 'attack', the reduction in fat reserves cannot be attributed to an interruption in feeding.     

Daily accumulation of body reserves under increased predation risk in captive Greenfinches Carduelis chloris

The effect of increased perceived risk of predation on the trajectory describing the daily gain in body mass of captive Greenfinches Carduelis chloris was tested. Theoretically, increased risk of predation is expected to shift the gain in body mass towards the latter part of the day and reduce body mass. The perceived risk of predation was increased with a stuffed flying hawk three times per day. Following each presentation of the predator, foraging stopped and the birds lost mass. When feeding resumed, the birds compensated for the mass loss by increasing the rate of body mass gain, in line with theoretical predictions. In the presence of the predator, the daily accumulation of body reserves was lower compared with risk-free situations. However, on the days following presentation of the hawk, when the birds were presumably aware of an increased risk of predation, Greenfinches did not exhibit the predicted change in reserve accumulation, but rather maintained their usual pattern of body mass gain.     

Diurnal foraging routines in a tropical bird,the rock finch Lagonosticta sanguinodorsalis: how important is predation risk?

An animal's foraging decisions are the outcome of the relative importance of the risk of starvation and predation. Fat deposition insures against periods of food shortage but it also carries a cost in terms of mass dependent predation risk due to reduced escape probability and extended exposure time. Accordingly, birds have been observed to show a unimodal foraging pattern with foraging concentrated at the end of the day under conditions of predictable food resources and high predation risk. We tested this hypothesis in a tropical granivorous finch, the rock firefinch Lagonosticta sanguinodorsalis , in an outdoor aviary experiment during which food was provided ad lib and the risk of predation was varied by providing food either adjacent to, or 5 m away from cover. Rock firefinches showed a bimodal foraging pattern regardless of the risk of predation at which they fed. The results suggest that predation is relatively unimportant in shaping their daily feeding pattern despite mass gain during the day being similar to temperate birds. Foraging patterns closely follow diurnal temperature variation and this is suggested to be the main determinant of the observed bimodal pattern.     

Strategic diel regulation of body mass in European robins

Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is a computational technique that has been used to model daily routines of foraging in small birds. A diurnal bird must build up its fat reserves towards dusk in order to avoid starvation during the night, when it cannot feed. However, as well as the benefits of avoiding starvation, storing fat imposes costs such as an increased predation risk and higher flight and metabolic costs. There is therefore an optimal level of fat reserves for a bird to reach at dusk in order to survive overnight without being left with excessive fat reserves at dawn. I tested a prediction common to all SDP models of daily foraging routines, that a bird will attempt to reach this level at dusk, regardless of its fat reserves the previous dawn. I provided supplementary food to manipulate the fat reserves at dawn of free-living European robins, Erithacus rubecula. Diurnal changes in body mass (a reliable estimate of fat reserves) were then monitored remotely. Robins provided with an ad libitum food supply reached almost exactly the same body mass at dusk, regardless of their body mass at dawn, supporting the prediction that birds attempt to reach a target level of reserves at dusk. Copyright 2000 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.     

Nest predation risk and growth strategies of passerine species: grow fast or develop traits to escape risk?

Abstract Different body components are thought to trade off in their growth and development rates, but the causes for relative prioritization of any trait remains a critical question. Offspring of species at higher risk of predation might prioritize development of locomotor traits that facilitate escaping risky environments over growth of mass. We tested this possibility in 12 altricial passerine species that differed in their risk of nest predation. We found that rates of growth and development of mass, wings, and endothermy increased with nest predation risk across species. In particular, species with higher nest predation risk exhibited relatively faster growth of wings than of mass, fledged with relatively larger wing sizes and smaller mass, and developed endothermy earlier at relatively smaller mass. This differential development can facilitate both escape from predators and survival outside of the nest environment. Tarsus growth was not differentially prioritized with respect to nest predation risk, and instead all species achieved adult tarsus size by age of fledging. We also tested whether different foraging modes (aerial, arboreal, and ground foragers) might explain the variation of differential growth of locomotor modules, but we found that little residual variation was explained. Our results suggest that differences in nest predation risk among species are associated with relative prioritization of body components to facilitate escape from the risky nest environment.     

Long‐term declines in winter body mass of tits throughout Britain and Ireland correlate with climate change

The optimum body mass of passerine birds typically represents a trade‐off between starvation risk, which promotes fat gain, and predation pressure, which promotes fat loss to maintain maneuvrability. Changes in ecological factors that affect either of these variables will therefore change the optimum body masses of populations of passerine birds. This study sought to identify and quantify the effects of changing temperatures and predation pressures on the body masses and wing lengths of populations of passerine birds throughout Britain and Ireland over the last 50 years. We analyzed over 900,000 individual measurements of body mass and wing length of blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus, coal tits Periparus ater, and great tits Parus major collected by licenced bird ringers throughout Britain and Ireland from 1965 to 2017 and correlated these with publicly available temperature data and published, UK‐wide data on the abundance of a key predator, the sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus. We found highly significant, long‐term, UK‐wide decreases in winter body masses of adults and juveniles of all three species. We also found highly significant negative correlations between winter body mass and winter temperature, and between winter body mass and sparrowhawk abundance. Independent of these effects, body mass further correlated negatively with calendar year, suggesting that less well understood dynamic factors, such as supplementary feeding levels, may play a major role in determining population optimum body masses. Wing lengths of these birds also decreased, suggesting a hitherto unobserved large‐scale evolutionary adjustment of wing loading to the lower body mass. These findings provide crucial evidence of the ways in which species are adapting to climate change and other anthropogenic factors throughout Britain and Ireland. Such processes are likely to have widespread implications as the equilibria controlling evolutionary optima in species worldwide are upset by rapid, anthropogenic ecological changes.     

Seasonal changes in the response of oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus to human disturbance

The response of foraging animals to human disturbance can be considered as a trade-off between the increased perceived predation risk of tolerating disturbance and the increased starvation risk of not feeding and avoiding disturbance. We show how the response of overwintering oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus to disturbance is related to their starvation risk of avoiding disturbance. As winter progresses, oystercatcher energy requirements increase and their feeding conditions deteriorate. To survive they spend longer feeding and so have less spare time in which to compensate for disturbance. Later in winter, birds approach a disturbance source more closely and return more quickly after a disturbance. Their behavioural response to disturbance is less when they are having more difficulty surviving and hence their starvation risk of avoiding disturbance is greater. These results have implications for studies which assume that a larger behavioural response means that a species is more vulnerable to disturbance. The opposite may be true. To more fully understand the impact of disturbance, studies should measure both behavioural responses and the ease with which animals are meeting their requirements. Conservation effort should be directed towards species which need to spend a high proportion of their time feeding, but still have a large response to disturbance.     

The starvation-predation trade-off predicts trends in body size, muscularity, and adiposity between and within Taxa

The storage of lipids to buffer energy shortage may incur such costs as increased vulnerability to predation, and animals may be more muscular in order to reduce such costs. If muscle and lipid mass interact to determine survival, then both the muscularity and the adiposity of animals will be affected by factors such as predator density and food availability. Here we explore how adiposity and muscularity may depend on such factors. We confirm the expectation that adiposity should decrease with the risk of predation and increase with the frequency of interruptions to the food supply. More surprisingly, the predicted relationships between skeletal size, muscularity, and adiposity qualitatively depended on various factors: for example, adiposity should increase with foraging costs only for small animals and should decrease with total body mass if competition for food is intense. Furthermore, if the locomotive costs of carrying lipids are low, then adiposity should increase with body mass, whereas if such costs are high, then adiposity should decrease with body mass. These predictions are supported by observations of variation between and within species. Our approach demonstrates that broad patterns of body composition can be understood in terms of the fundamental ecological trade-off between starvation and predation.     

A tradeoff between perceived predation risk and energy conservation revealed by an immune challenge experiment

Energy is typically a limiting factor for animals during boreal winters, when low temperatures increase the cost of thermoregulation at the same times as short day‐lengths and snow cover constrain foraging opportunities. Under these circumstances animals use a suite of behavioural and physiological adaptations to avoid overnight starvation. However, it is poorly understood how such strategies are affected by increased energy demands from other physiological systems. Thus, we used free‐ranging blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, to test if competing demands for energy (here induced by a non‐inflammatory, antibody‐mediated immune challenge) would affect nocturnal body temperature (a predictor of energy expenditure in small animals) and energy‐saving nest box roosting behaviour. We also assessed if the immune challenge incurred long‐term survival costs. We found no evidence that body temperature regulation differed between immune‐challenged and saline‐injected birds. Nor did the immune challenge reduce survival to the next breeding season. However, old (second winter or older) immune‐challenged birds continued roosting in nest boxes to a larger extent at the peak immune response, despite increased perceived predation risk induced by the preceding capture and immunization. In contrast, old control birds were less prone to roost in nest boxes after capture and saline injection. This difference was less pronounced in young (first winter) birds. We interpret the increased risk‐taking behaviour in immune‐challenged birds as a consequence of a higher need for exploiting the thermal benefits of nest box roosting to reduce energy loss. This suggests that resource deficiency might be a stronger predictor of overnight survival than the threat of nocturnal predation in this system. As such, our study provides insights into the classic tradeoff between starvation and predation risk, in suggesting that priority is given to minimizing the risk of starvation in situations where both starvation and predation risks increase during cold winter nights.     

Group-foraging is not associated with longevity in North American birds

Group-foraging is common in many animal taxa and is thought to offer protection against predators and greater foraging efficiency. Such benefits may have driven evolutionary transitions from solitary to group-foraging. Greater protection against predators and greater access to resources should reduce extrinsic sources of mortality and thus select for higher longevity according to life-history theory. I assessed the association between group-foraging and longevity in a sample of 421 North American birds. Taking into account known correlates of longevity, such as age at first reproduction and body mass, foraging group size was not correlated with maximum longevity, with and without phylogenetic correction. However, longevity increased with body mass in non-passerine birds. The results suggest that the hypothesized changes in predation risk with group size may not correlate with mortality rate in foraging birds.