Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change

Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate‐vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche‐demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a ‘business‐as‐usual’ climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100‐year trajectories for range‐restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5‐year, and 10‐year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change.     

Species diversity and endemism of five major Malesian islands: diversity–area relationships

Aim A comparison of biodiversity patterns within Malesia in relation to surface area. Location Analysis of the patterns in species richness and endemism of vascular plants in the five major Malesian islands, i.e. Java, Sulawesi, Sumatra, Borneo and New Guinea. Methods Available data on species richness and species ranges in correlation with the surface area of the respective islands were examined in this work. Estimations of total species numbers for these islands are presented based on extrapolation of all available published Flora Malesiana information and recent checklists, all in all comprising 12,000 different species. The regression analysis of overall species richness and endemism were studied for all species together as well as for different plant families to compare the fit with the Arrhenius species–area model. Results The five islands form a series of independent areas of increasing size suited for an analysis of the species–area relationships at the regional scale. All species taken together and those of families with even distribution throughout Malesia show significant species–area relationships. Non‐significant relationships were detected in families with western or eastern‐centred Malesian distribution patterns. Relationships between number of endemic species and surface area are significant for all species and for the majority of the families with significant species–area relationships. Main conclusions Species–area relationships of families appear to be dependent on species number. Families with high numbers of species usually have a significant species–area relationship whereas small families have not. For the families that display an eastern or western Malesian centred pattern, a historical biogeographical explanation should be invoked. Island surface area appears to be a predictor for island percent endemism in Malesian vascular plants. None of the islands appears to be a hotspot of endemism nor of species diversity, as no significant departure from the Arrhenius model was noted for any of them.     

An assessment of endemism and species richness patterns in the Australian Anura

Aim To assemble a continental‐scale data set of all available anuran records and investigate trends in endemism and species richness for the Anura. Location Continental Australia. Methods 97,338 records were assembled, covering 75% of the continent. A neighbourhood analysis was applied to recorded locations for each species to measure richness and endemism for each half‐degree grid square (c. 50 km) in the continent. This analysis was performed for all anurans, and also for each of the three main anuran families found in Australia. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to test a null hypothesis that observed centres of endemism could result simply from an unstructured overlapping of species ranges of different sizes. Results Eleven main centres of anuran endemism were identified, the most important being the Wet Tropics and the south‐west near Bunbury‐Augusta and near Walpole. With the exception of south‐western Australia, all of the identified significant endemic centres are in the northern half of the continent. The regions identified as significant for endemism differed from those identified for species richness and are more localized. Species richness is greatest in the Wet Tropics and the Border Ranges. High species richness also occurs in several areas not previously identified along the east and northern coasts. Main conclusions Weighted endemism provides a new approach for determining significant areas for anuran conservation in Australia and areas can be identified that could be targeted for beneficial conservation gains. Patterns in endemism were found to vary markedly between the three main anuran families, and south‐eastern Australia was found to be far less significant than indicated by previous studies. The need for further survey work in inland Australia is highlighted and several priority areas suggested. Our results for species richness remain broadly consistent with trends previously observed for the Australian Anura.     

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25–29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.     

Contrasting response of native and alien plant species richness to environmental energy and human impact along alpine elevation gradients

Aim We tested whether the species–energy and species–human relationships vary between native and both naturalized and casual alien species richness when other environmental variables had been taken into account. Location Trento Province, a region (c. 6200 km²) on the southern border of the European Alps (Italy), subdivided into 156 contiguous (c. 37.5 km²) cells and ranging in elevation from 66 to 3769 m. Methods Data were separated into three subsets, representing richness of natives, naturalized aliens and casual aliens and separately related to temperature, human population and various environmental correlates of plant species diversity. We applied ordinary least squares and simultaneous autoregressive regressions to identify potential contrasting responses of the three plant status subsets and hierarchical partitioning to evaluate the relative importance of the predictor variables. Results Variation in alien plant species richness along the region was almost entirely explained by temperature and human population density. The relationships were positive but strongly curvilinear. Native species richness was less strongly related to either factor but was positively related to the presence of calcareous bedrock. Native species richness had a decelerating positive relationship with temperature (R²= 55%), whereas naturalized and casual aliens had a positive accelerating relationship explaining 86% and 62% of the variation in richness, respectively. Native species richness had a positive decelerating relationship with population density (R²= 42%), whilst both alien subsets had a positive accelerating relationship. Main conclusions Alien species richness was higher in areas with the most rich and diverse assemblages of native species. Areas at high altitudes are not especially prone to alien invasion due to energy constraints, low propagule pressure and disturbance, even considering a potential increased in temperature. Thus, if we consider future environmental change, we should expect a stronger response of aliens than natives in the currently warm, urbanized, low‐altitude areas than in cold, high‐altitude areas where human population density is low.     

Bird communities in habitats along a successional gradient: Divergent patterns of species richness,specialization and threat

The long history of human influence on northern temperate landscapes has created a mosaic of successional stages, from closed forest to open grassland. Various species thus adapted to different habitats and it is interesting to explore how these differences in species composition among particular successional stages translate into differences at the community level. For this purpose, we surveyed breeding birds in 233 patches of five different habitats covering a gradient from bare ground to forest in 29 abandoned military training sites scattered throughout the Czech Republic. Linear mixed effects modelling revealed that late-successional habitats (dense scrubland and forest) were the most species-rich, whereas early-successional stages hosted bird communities with the highest habitat specialization and threat level. These results suggest that the habitats of late-successional stages are important for the maintenance of high bird species richness, but that early-successional habitats are essential for highly specialized and threatened bird species. Given the highly adverse impacts of agricultural intensification and land abandonment on open habitats, it is necessary to promote factors creating initial successional stages suitable for specialized and threatened species.     

Factors determining mammal species richness on habitat islands and isolates: habitat diversity, disturbance, species interactions and guild assembly rules

• 1 For over three decades the equilibrium theory of island biogeography has galvanized studies in ecological biogeography. Studies of oceanic islands and of natural habitat islands share some similarities to continental studies, particularly in developed regions where habitat fragmentation results from many land uses. Increasingly, remnant habitat is in the form of isolates created by the clearing and destruction of natural areas. Future evolution of a theory to predict patterns of species abundance may well come from the application of island biogeography to habitat fragments or isolates.
• 2 In this paper we consider four factors other than area and isolation that influence the number and type of mammal species coexisting in one place: habitat diversity, habitat disturbance, species interactions and guild assembly rules. In all examples our data derive from mainland habitat, fragmented to differing degrees, with different levels of isolation.
• 3 Habitat diversity is seen to be a good predictor of species richness. Increased levels of disturbance produce a relatively greater decrease in species richness on smaller than on larger isolates. Species interactions in the recolonization of highly disturbed sites, such as regenerating mined sites, is analogous to island colonization. Species replacement sequences in secondary successions indicate not just how many, but which species are included. Lastly, the complement of species established on islands, or in insular habitats, may be governed by guild assembly rules. These contributions may assist in taking a renewed theory into the new millennium.

     

Patterns in species richness and endemism of European freshwater fish

Aim  To analyse the patterns in species richness and endemism of the native European riverine fish fauna, in the light of the Messinian salinity crisis and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  European continent.
Methods  After gathering native fish faunistic lists of 406 hydrographical networks, we defined large biogeographical regions with homogenous fish fauna, based on a hierarchical cluster analysis. Then we analysed and compared the patterns in species richness and endemism among these regions, as well as species–area relationships.
Results  Among the 233 native species present in the data set, the Cyprinidae family was strongly dominant (> 50% of the total number of species). Seven biogeographical regions were defined: Western Peri-Mediterranea, Central Peri-Mediterranea, Eastern Peri-Mediterranea, Ponto-Caspian Europe, Northern Europe, Central Europe and Western Europe. The highest regional species richness was observed for Central Peri-Mediterranea and Ponto-Caspian Europe. The highest endemic richness was found in Central Peri-Mediterranea. Species–area relationships were characterized by high slope values for Peri-Mediterranean Europe and low values for Central and Western Europe.
Main conclusions  The results were in agreement with the 'Lago Mare' hypothesis explaining the specificity of Peri-Mediterranean fish fauna, as well as with the history of recolonization of Central and Western Europe from Ponto-Caspian Europe following the LGM. The results also agreed with the mechanisms of speciation and extinction influencing fish diversity in hydrographical networks. We advise the use of the seven biogeographical regions for further studies, and suggest considering Peri-Mediterranean Europe and Ponto-Caspian Europe as 'biodiversity hotspots' for European riverine fish.     

Human-related processes drive the richness of exotic birds in Europe

Both human-related and natural factors can affect the establishment and distribution of exotic species. Understanding the relative role of the different factors has important scientific and applied implications. Here, we examined the relative effect of human-related and natural factors in determining the richness of exotic bird species established across Europe. Using hierarchical partitioning, which controls for covariation among factors, we show that the most important factor is the human-related community-level propagule pressure (the number of exotic species introduced), which is often not included in invasion studies due to the lack of information for this early stage in the invasion process. Another, though less important, factor was the human footprint (an index that includes human population size, land use and infrastructure). Biotic and abiotic factors of the environment were of minor importance in shaping the number of established birds when tested at a European extent using 50 x 50 km2 grid squares. We provide, to our knowledge, the first map of the distribution of exotic bird richness in Europe. The richest hotspot of established exotic birds is located in southeastern England, followed by areas in Belgium and The Netherlands. Community-level propagule pressure remains the major factor shaping the distribution of exotic birds also when tested for the UK separately. Thus, studies examining the patterns of establishment should aim at collecting the crucial and hard-to-find information on community-level propagule pressure or develop reliable surrogates for estimating this factor. Allowing future introductions of exotic birds into Europe should be reconsidered carefully, as the number of introduced species is basically the main factor that determines the number established.