Piloting a social-ecological index for measuring flood resilience: A composite index approach

Global increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events have raised concerns that traditional flood management approaches may not be sufficient to deal with future uncertainties. There is a need to move towards approaches that manage the resilience of the system to floods by understanding and managing drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Here we pilot an approach to measure the resilience of a system to a flood. A method is presented in which indicators are used to measure and map the spatial distribution of the levels of flood resilience across a landscape. Using three flood affected municipalities in South Africa, 24 resilience indicators related to floods and its relevant social, ecological, infrastructural and economic aspects are selected, and integrated into a composite index using a principal components analysis (PCA). A fifth component of institutional resilience is used to explore levels of disaster planning, mitigation and public awareness capacities and where these can be increased. The PCA transformed the 24 variables into four main components, the first of which was strongly correlated with underlying social variables, while the second and third correlated well with economic and ecological variables respectively. Distinct spatial variation of flood resilience was found across the study area, with highest flood resilience in main cities, and lowest in wards located on the periphery of cities often the location of peri-urban informal settlements. The disaggregation of underlying indicators showed wards with lowest flood resilience also had the lowest social, economic and ecological resilience. The flood resilience index was sensitive to the exclusion of all three components highlighting the importance of capturing the multidimensionality of flood resilience. The approach allows for a simple, yet robust index able to include an array of datasets generally available in flood prone areas with potential to disaggregate and trace variables for management and decision making.     

社会-生态系统恢复力研究综述

目前国内外对脆弱性的论述很多,然而关于恢复力的研究却刚刚起步且困难重重。1973年Holling创造性地将恢复力引入到生态系统稳定性的研究中,并将其定义为系统吸收干扰并继续维持其功能、结构、反馈等不发生质变的能力。30多年来这一术语的概念和内涵在大量的案例研究中得到了丰富和完善,然而这些研究对恢复力的不同解释亦造成了大量的混淆,因此需要在统一的理论基础上,根据控制系统变化的属性来构建恢复力的概念并进行应用研究。在社会-生态系统框架下,分析了恢复力研究的基础理论——适应性循环及扰沌,对其概念及内涵做了进展综述,回顾了恢复力的应用案例,探讨了定量化问题,在此基础上对社会．生态系统恢复力的研究进行了展望,提出了面临的关键问题及今后的研究方向。     

On the dimensionality of ecological stability

Ecological stability is touted as a complex and multifaceted concept, including components such as variability, resistance, resilience, persistence and robustness. Even though a complete appreciation of the effects of perturbations on ecosystems requires the simultaneous measurement of these multiple components of stability, most ecological research has focused on one or a few of those components analysed in isolation. Here, we present a new view of ecological stability that recognises explicitly the non‐independence of components of stability. This provides an approach for simplifying the concept of stability. We illustrate the concept and approach using results from a field experiment, and show that the effective dimensionality of ecological stability is considerably lower than if the various components of stability were unrelated. However, strong perturbations can modify, and even decouple, relationships among individual components of stability. Thus, perturbations not only increase the dimensionality of stability but they can also alter the relationships among components of stability in different ways. Studies that focus on single forms of stability in isolation therefore risk underestimating significantly the potential of perturbations to destabilise ecosystems. In contrast, application of the multidimensional stability framework that we propose gives a far richer understanding of how communities respond to perturbations.     

Co‐adaptation impacts the robustness of predator–prey dynamics against perturbations

Global change threatens the maintenance of ecosystem functions that are shaped by the persistence and dynamics of populations. It has been shown that the persistence of species increases if they possess larger trait adaptability. Here, we investigate whether trait adaptability also affects the robustness of population dynamics of interacting species and thereby shapes the reliability of ecosystem functions that are driven by these dynamics. We model co‐adaptation in a predator–prey system as changes to predator offense and prey defense due to evolution or phenotypic plasticity. We investigate how trait adaptation affects the robustness of population dynamics against press perturbations to environmental parameters and against pulse perturbations targeting species abundances and their trait values. Robustness of population dynamics is characterized by resilience, elasticity, and resistance. In addition to employing established measures for resilience and elasticity against pulse perturbations (extinction probability and return time), we propose the warping distance as a new measure for resistance against press perturbations, which compares the shapes and amplitudes of pre‐ and post‐perturbation population dynamics. As expected, we find that the robustness of population dynamics depends on the speed of adaptation, but in nontrivial ways. Elasticity increases with speed of adaptation as the system returns more rapidly to the pre‐perturbation state. Resilience, in turn, is enhanced by intermediate speeds of adaptation, as here trait adaptation dampens biomass oscillations. The resistance of population dynamics strongly depends on the target of the press perturbation, preventing a simple relationship with the adaptation speed. In general, we find that low robustness often coincides with high amplitudes of population dynamics. Hence, amplitudes may indicate the robustness against perturbations also in other natural systems with similar dynamics. Our findings show that besides counteracting extinctions, trait adaptation indeed strongly affects the robustness of population dynamics against press and pulse perturbations.     

A Systems Model Approach to Determining Resilience Surrogates for Case Studies

Resilience theory offers a framework for understanding the dynamics of complex systems. However, operationalizing resilience theory to develop and test empirical hypotheses can be difficult. We present a method in which simple systems models are used as a framework to identify resilience surrogates for case studies. The process of constructing a systems model for a particular case offers a path for identifying important variables related to system resilience, including the slowly-changing variables and thresholds that often are keys to understanding the resilience of a system. We develop a four-step process for identifying resilience surrogates through development of systems models. Because systems model development is often a difficult step, we summarize four basic existing systems models and give examples of how each may be used to identify resilience surrogates. The construction and analysis of simple systems models provides a useful basis for guiding and directing the selection of surrogate variables that will offer appropriate empirical measures of resilience.     

土壤微生物群落抵抗力和恢复力研究进展

人类活动的不断加剧使得土壤生态系统承受着环境干扰压力。土壤微生物受到环境干扰的响应程度（抵抗力）及恢复至原来状态的能力（恢复力）决定着土壤生态系统的可持续性。梳理和总结了土壤微生物群落对环境干扰的抵抗力和恢复力方面的研究进展。首先,在介绍土壤微生物群落抵抗力和恢复力概念的基础上,阐述了通过评估微生物群落的结构和功能的变化来系统表征抵抗力和恢复力;随后,分析了最近十年（2012-2021年）有关文献,发现土壤微生物群落的结构和（或）功能在环境干扰后的恢复力总体较弱,但耕作、有机物料添加和轮作等农田管理措施下的响应趋势表现出一定的规律性;继而,从个体水平的休眠和胁迫忍耐、种群水平的生存策略、群落水平的多样性和相互作用以及生态系统水平的历史遗留效应等方面分析了土壤微生物群落抵抗力和恢复力的维持机制;最后,从功能性状、多功能性和植物-土壤微生物整体性对未来研究做出了展望,以期为构建土壤健康评价体系及预测环境干扰对土壤功能的影响提供科学依据。     

Simulations of Long-Term Community Dynamics in Coral Reefs - How Perturbations Shape Trajectories

Tropical coral reefs feature extraordinary biodiversity and high productivity rates in oligotrophic waters. Due to increasing frequencies of perturbations – anthropogenic and natural – many reefs are under threat. Such perturbations often have devastating effects on these unique ecosystems and especially if they occur simultaneously and amplify each other''s impact, they might trigger a phase shift and create irreversible conditions.We developed a generic, spatially explicit, individual-based model in which competition drives the dynamics of a virtual benthic reef community – comprised of scleractinian corals and algae – under different environmental settings. Higher system properties, like population dynamics or community composition arise through self-organization as emergent properties. The model was parameterized for a typical coral reef site at Zanzibar, Tanzania and features coral bleaching and physical disturbance regimes as major sources of perturbations. Our results show that various types and modes (intensities and frequencies) of perturbations create diverse outcomes and that the switch from high diversity to single species dominance can be evoked by small changes in a key parameter.Here we extend the understanding of coral reef resilience and the identification of key processes, drivers and respective thresholds, responsible for changes in local situations. One future goal is to provide a tool which may aid decision making processes in management of coral reefs.     

The resilience of social norms of cooperation under resource scarcity and inequality — An agent-based model on sharing water over two harvesting seasons

Water governance remains a challenge for human societies, especially when the variation in resource inflow is large and the resource users are heterogeneous. We analyze with a coupled social-ecological systems (SES) model how socioeconomic and environmental changes affect the resilience of social norms governing resource use. In our model, agents have access to water as a common-pool resource and allocate it between rainy and dry seasons. While it is socially optimal to save water for the dry season, it is individually optimal to take water immediately. In our model, punishment of norm violators is the mechanism that may sustain cooperation. We show that the resilience of social norms could be affected by changes in socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Particularly, we find that social norms may collapse in times of resource scarcity and variability, especially if several drivers act in concert. Finally, we find that user heterogeneity in the form of different skills and inequality in land endowments may undermine cooperation. This implies that climatic changes and increased inequality – both potential drivers in the field – may affect community resilience and may lead to an erosion of social norms.     

地方认同视角下居民对农业文化遗产认知及保护态度——以福州茉莉花与茶文化系统为例

居民对农业文化遗产的认知态度影响其行为选择,并对农业文化遗产的保护及可持续发展具有重要意义。基于人文地理学及环境心理学领域的地方认同理论,选择历史认同、现实认同、情感认同及行为认同4个维度变量,通过问卷调查,以福州居民对全球重要农业文化遗产"福州茉莉花与茶文化系统"的认知及保护态度作为研究对象,并通过构建福州居民农业文化遗产认知及保护规律定量分析居民认知态度、保护行为与人口特征之间的关系。结果表明:(1)福州居民对茉莉花与茶文化系统的行为认同维度得分高于其他维度,且福州市民各维度得分均高于外来居民;(2)受访居民对农业文化遗产的地方认同与其年龄、受教育水平、收入水平及在福州居住时间长短的关系较为密切;(3)通过构建福州居民农业文化遗产认知及保护规律发现,福州居民对农业文化遗产的保护行为主要受其对该遗产项目认知态度的影响,与居民人口特征相关性较弱。拓展农业文化遗产领域的研究视角及方法,促进农业文化遗产地动态保护与可持续发展具有参考价值。     

Deterministic characterization of phase noise in biomolecular oscillators

On top of the many external perturbations, cellular oscillators also face intrinsic perturbations due the randomness of chemical kinetics. Biomolecular oscillators, distinct in their parameter sets or distinct in their architecture, show different resilience with respect to such intrinsic perturbations. Assessing this resilience can be done by ensemble stochastic simulations. These are computationally costly and do not permit further insights into the mechanistic cause of the observed resilience. For reaction systems operating at a steady state, the linear noise approximation (LNA) can be used to determine the effect of molecular noise. Here we show that methods based on LNA fail for oscillatory systems and we propose an alternative ansatz. It yields an asymptotic expression for the phase diffusion coefficient of stochastic oscillators. Moreover, it allows us to single out the noise contribution of every reaction in an oscillatory system. We test the approach on the one-loop model of the Drosophila circadian clock. Our results are consistent with those obtained through stochastic simulations with a gain in computational efficiency of about three orders of magnitude.     

Society and Environment in the East Mediterranean ca 300–1800 CE. Problems of Resilience,Adaptation and Transformation. Introductory Essay

This introductory article sets out some issues associated with the concept and theorization of ‘resilience’. We describe some historical contexts in which theories of societal resilience can be usefully deployed; we offer some challenges to critiques of the validity and usefulness of Formal Resilience Theory (Theory of Adaptive Change). Resilience, adaptation, and transformation are complex issues, and while we cannot tell the whole story through the lens of environmental change, we can integrate the various categories of evidence to attempt to focus in on where and how climate change might impact an imperial system. Using an example from Byzantine Anatolia we examine the most vulnerable segments, such as subsistence systems, with respect to the agency of elite managers and the role of religious identity. Thus we can throw light on how interconnected environmental and social factors might exert pressure on other sub-systems and thus the system as a whole.     

New Directions for Understanding the Spatial Resilience of Social–Ecological Systems

The concept of spatial resilience has brought a new focus on the influence of multi-scale processes on the dynamics of ecosystems. Initial ideas about spatial resilience focused on coral reefs and emphasized escalating anthropogenic disturbances across the broader seascape. This perspective resonated with a new awareness of global drivers of change, such as growth in international trade and shifts in climate, and the need to respond by scaling up governance and management. We review recent trends and emerging ideas in spatial resilience, using coral reefs and dependent communities as exemplars of multi-scale social–ecological systems. Despite recent advances, management and governance of ecosystems remain spatially fragmented and constrained to small scales. Temporally, many interventions still miss or ignore warning signals and struggle to cope with history, politics, long-term cumulative pressures, feedbacks, and sudden surprises. Significant recent progress has been made in understanding the relevance of spatial and temporal scale, heterogeneity, networks, the importance of place, and multi-scale governance. Emerging themes include better integration of ecology and conservation with social and economic science, and incorporating temporal dynamics in spatial analyses. A better understanding of the multi-scale spatial and temporal processes that drive the resilience of linked social-ecosystems will help address the widespread mismatch between the scales of ongoing ecological change and effective long-term governance of land- and seascapes.     

Slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift

The size of the basin of attraction in ecosystems with alternative stable states is often referred to as "ecological resilience." Ecosystems with a low ecological resilience may easily be tipped into an alternative basin of attraction by a stochastic event. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to measure ecological resilience in practice. Here we show that the rate of recovery from small perturbations (sometimes called "engineering resilience") is a remarkably good indicator of ecological resilience. Such recovery rates decrease as a catastrophic regime shift is approached, a phenomenon known in physics as "critical slowing down." We demonstrate the robust occurrence of critical slowing down in six ecological models and outline a possible experimental approach to quantify differences in recovery rates. In all the models we analyzed, critical slowing down becomes apparent quite far from a threshold point, suggesting that it may indeed be of practical use as an early warning signal. Despite the fact that critical slowing down could also indicate other critical transitions, such as a stable system becoming oscillatory, the robustness of the phenomenon makes it a promising indicator of loss of resilience and the risk of upcoming regime shifts in a system.     

Measurement of leukocyte motility and chemotaxis parameters with a linear under-agarose migration assay

The interpretation of quantitative assays for leukocyte chemotactic migration is usually made in terms of measurements such as leading front distance, total migrating cells, and leukotactic index. These quantities allow comparison of cellular migration behavior under specified conditions. They are not useful; however, for comparisons between systems or for correlation with in vivo performance, because they depend upon specific physical aspects of the assay system, such as the geometry, chemoattractant concentration and diffusivity, and observation time. It would be more helpful to measure intrinsic properties of cell movement that could be used for comparison between systems, for correlation with in vivo studies, and to increase our understanding of the cell physiology. In this paper we demonstrate a means of quantitating leukocyte random motility, chemokinesis, and chemotaxis in terms of parameters that do characterize intrinsic cell properties. These parameters are the random motility coefficient and the chemotaxis coefficient, which appear in theoretical models of cell migration. We examine how well such a model describes the leukocyte density profile data observed in a modified under-agarose assay having a linear geometry. Furthermore, we obtain values for the random motility coefficient (and its dependence upon the concentration of the attractant peptide FNLLP) and for the chemotaxis coefficient for leukocytes responding to FNLLP.     

Trophic complementarity drives the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship in food webs

The biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationship is central in community ecology. Its drivers in competitive systems (sampling effect and functional complementarity) are intuitive and elegant, but we lack an integrative understanding of these drivers in complex ecosystems. Because networks encompass two key components of the BEF relationship (species richness and biomass flow), they provide a key to identify these drivers, assuming that we have a meaningful measure of functional complementarity. In a network, diversity can be defined by species richness, the number of trophic levels, but perhaps more importantly, the diversity of interactions. In this paper, we define the concept of trophic complementarity (TC), which emerges through exploitative and apparent competition processes, and study its contribution to ecosystem functioning. Using a model of trophic community dynamics, we show that TC predicts various measures of ecosystem functioning, and generate a range of testable predictions. We find that, in addition to the number of species, the structure of their interactions needs to be accounted for to predict ecosystem productivity.     

Resilience and tipping points of an exploited fish population over six decades

Complex natural systems with eroded resilience, such as populations, ecosystems and socio‐ecological systems, respond to small perturbations with abrupt, discontinuous state shifts, or critical transitions. Theory of critical transitions suggests that such systems exhibit fold bifurcations featuring folded response curves, tipping points and alternate attractors. However, there is little empirical evidence of fold bifurcations occurring in actual complex natural systems impacted by multiple stressors. Moreover, resilience of complex systems to change currently lacks clear operational measures with generic application. Here, we provide empirical evidence for the occurrence of a fold bifurcation in an exploited fish population and introduce a generic measure of ecological resilience based on the observed fold bifurcation attributes. We analyse the multivariate development of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua), which is currently the world's largest cod stock, over six decades (1949–2009), and identify a population state shift in 1981. By plotting a multivariate population index against a multivariate stressor index, the shift mechanism was revealed suggesting that the observed population shift was a nonlinear response to the combined effects of overfishing and climate change. Annual resilience values were estimated based on the position of each year in relation to the fitted attractors and assumed tipping points of the fold bifurcation. By interpolating the annual resilience values, a folded stability landscape was fit, which was shaped as predicted by theory. The resilience assessment suggested that the population may be close to another tipping point. This study illustrates how a multivariate analysis, supported by theory of critical transitions and accompanied by a quantitative resilience assessment, can clarify shift mechanisms in data‐rich complex natural systems.     

Phenotypic diversity and stability of ecosystem processes.

The resistance of an ecosystem to perturbations and the speed at which it recovers after the perturbations, which is called resilience, are two important components of ecosystem stability. It has been suggested that biodiversity increases the resilience and resistance of aggregated ecosystem processes. We test this hypothesis using a theoretical model of a nutrient-limited ecosystem in a heterogeneous environment. We investigate the stability properties of the model for its simplest possible configuration, i.e. , a system consisting of two plant species and their associated detritus and local resource depletion zones. Phenotypic diversity within the plant community is described by differences in the nutrient uptake and mortality rates of the two species. The usual measure of resilience characterizes the system as a whole and thus also applies to aggregated ecosystem processes. As a rule this decreases with increased diversity, though under certain conditions it is maximum for an intermediate value of diversity. Resistance is a property that characterizes each system component and process separately. The resistance of the inorganic nutrient pools, hence of nutrient retention in the ecosystem, decreases with increased diversity. The resistance of both total plant biomass and productivity either monotonically decreases or increases over part of the parameter range with increased diversity. Furthermore, it is very sensitive to parameter values. These results support the view that there is no simple relationship between diversity and stability in equilibrium deterministic systems, whether at the level of populations or aggregated ecosystem processes. We discuss these results in relation to recent experiments.     

Sustainable wastewater treatment: How might microbial fuel cells contribute

The need for cost-effective low-energy wastewater treatment has never been greater. Clean water for our expanding and predominantly urban global population will be expensive to deliver, eats into our diminishing carbon-based energy reserves and consequently contributes to green house gases in the atmosphere and climate change. Thus every potential cost and energy cutting measure for wastewater treatment should be explored. Microbial fuel cells (MFCs) could potentially yield such savings but, to achieve this, requires significant advances in our understanding in a few critical areas and in our designs of the overall systems. Here we review the research which might accelerate our progress towards sustainable wastewater treatment using MFCs: system control and modelling and the understanding of the ecology of the microbial communities that catalyse the generation of electricity.     

The Use of Discontinuities and Functional Groups to Assess Relative Resilience in Complex Systems

It is evident when the resilience of a system has been exceeded and the system qualitatively changed. However, it is not clear how to measure resilience in a system prior to the demonstration that the capacity for resilient response has been exceeded. We argue that self-organizing human and natural systems are structured by a relatively small set of processes operating across scales in time and space. These structuring processes should generate a discontinuous distribution of structures and frequencies, where discontinuities mark the transition from one scale to another. Resilience is not driven by the identity of elements of a system, but rather by the functions those elements provide, and their distribution within and across scales. A self-organizing system that is resilient should maintain patterns of function within and across scales despite the turnover of specific elements (for example, species, cities). However, the loss of functions, or a decrease in functional representation at certain scales will decrease system resilience. It follows that some distributions of function should be more resilient than others. We propose that the determination of discontinuities, and the quantification of function both within and across scales, produce relative measures of resilience in ecological and other systems. We describe a set of methods to assess the relative resilience of a system based upon the determination of discontinuities and the quantification of the distribution of functions in relation to those discontinuities.