Regression and model-building in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology: The distinction between – and reconciliation of – ‘predictive’ and ‘explanatory’ models

In many large-scale conservation or ecological problems where experiments are intractable or unethical, regression methods are used to attempt to gauge the impact of a set of nominally independent variables (X) upon a dependent variable (Y). Workers often want to assert that a given X has a major influence on Y, and so, by using this indirection to infer a probable causal relationship. There are two difficulties apart from the demonstrability issue itself: (1) multiple regression is plagued by collinear relationships in X; and (2) any regression is designed to produce a function that in some way minimizes the overall difference between the observed and predicted Ys, which does not necessarily equate to determining probable influence in a multivariate setting. Problem (1) may be explored by comparing two avenues, one in which a single best regression model is sought and the other where all possible regression models are considered contemporaneously. It is suggested that if the two approaches do not agree upon which of the independent variables are likely to be significant, then the deductions must be subject to doubt.     

Bayesian Risk Mapping and Model-Based Estimation of Schistosoma haematobium–Schistosoma mansoni Co-distribution in C?te d′Ivoire

Background

Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni are blood flukes that cause urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively. In Côte d′Ivoire, both species are endemic and control efforts are being scaled up. Accurate knowledge of the geographical distribution, including delineation of high-risk areas, is a central feature for spatial targeting of interventions. Thus far, model-based predictive risk mapping of schistosomiasis has relied on historical data of separate parasite species.

Methodology

We analyzed data pertaining to Schistosoma infection among school-aged children obtained from a national, cross-sectional survey conducted between November 2011 and February 2012. More than 5,000 children in 92 schools across Côte d′Ivoire participated. Bayesian geostatistical multinomial models were developed to assess infection risk, including S. haematobium–S. mansoni co-infection. The predicted risk of schistosomiasis was utilized to estimate the number of children that need preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel according to World Health Organization guidelines.

Principal Findings

We estimated that 8.9% of school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire are affected by schistosomiasis; 5.3% with S. haematobium and 3.8% with S. mansoni. Approximately 2 million annualized praziquantel treatments would be required for preventive chemotherapy at health districts level. The distinct spatial patterns of S. haematobium and S. mansoni imply that co-infection is of little importance across the country.

Conclusions/Significance

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis risk among school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire and a strong empirical basis for a rational targeting of control interventions.     

Granule Associated Serine Proteases of Hematopoietic Cells – An Analysis of Their Appearance and Diversification during Vertebrate Evolution

Serine proteases are among the most abundant granule constituents of several hematopoietic cell lineages including mast cells, neutrophils, cytotoxic T cells and NK cells. These proteases are stored in their active form in the cytoplasmic granules and in mammals are encoded from four different chromosomal loci: the chymase locus, the met-ase locus, the T cell tryptase and the mast cell tryptase locus. In order to study their appearance during vertebrate evolution we have performed a bioinformatic analysis of related genes and gene loci from a large panel of metazoan animals from sea urchins to placental mammals for three of these loci: the chymase, met-ase and granzyme A/K loci. Genes related to mammalian granzymes A and K were the most well conserved and could be traced as far back to cartilaginous fish. Here, the granzyme A and K genes were found in essentially the same chromosomal location from sharks to humans. However in sharks, no genes clearly identifiable as members of the chymase or met-ase loci were found. A selection of these genes seemed to appear with bony fish, but sometimes in other loci. Genes related to mammalian met-ase locus genes were found in bony fish. Here, the most well conserved member was complement factor D. However, genes distantly related to the neutrophil proteases were also identified in this locus in several bony fish species, indicating that this locus is also old and appeared at the base of bony fish. In fish, a few of the chymase locus-related genes were found in a locus with bordering genes other than the mammalian chymase locus and some were found in the fish met-ase locus. This indicates that a convergent evolution rather than divergent evolution has resulted in chymase locus-related genes in bony fish.     

Polyparasitism with Schistosoma mansoni,geohelminths, and intestinal protozoa in rural Côte d'Ivoire

Single species infections with schistosomes, geohelminths, and intestinal protozoans are common over large parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and it is expected that polyparasitism affects a considerable proportion of the population, hence posing a great toll on public health. However, few investigations have been carried out to quantify the extent of polyparasitism. Here, a detailed assessment is reported for the epidemiology of Schistosoma mansoni, geohelminths, and intestinal protozoan infections, with particular emphasis on polyparasitism among 260 community members in rural C?te d'Ivoire. Schistosoma mansoni, Entamoeba coli, and hookworm were the predominant species with prevalences of 71.5, 64.6, and 51.9%, respectively. Only 8 individuals displayed no infection, whereas two-thirds of the population harbored 3 or more parasites concurrently. There were a series of significant pairwise parasite co-occurrences, e.g., between S. mansoni and hookworms and between S. mansoni and E. coli. It is concluded that polyparasitism in the population studied here was very common, which is probably the case also in other areas of rural C?te d'Ivoire and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. These findings call for integrated approaches to effectively control multiple parasitic and protozoan infections.     

A Mathematical Model of Schistosoma mansoni in Biomphalaria glabrata with Control Strategies

We describe and analyze a mathematical model for schistosomiasis in which infected snails are distinguished from susceptible through increased mortality and no reproduction. We based the model on the same derivation as Anderson and May (J. Anim. Ecol. 47:219–247, 1978), Feng and Milner (A New Mathematical Model of Schistosomiasis, Mathematical Models in Medical and Health Science, Nashville, TN, 1997. Innov. Appl. Math., Vanderbilt Univ. Press, Nashville, pp. 117–128, 1998), and May and Anderson (J. Anim. Ecol. 47:249–267, 1978), but used logistic growth both in human and snail hosts. We introduce a parameter r, the effective coverage of medical treatment/prevention to control the infection. We determine a reproductive number for the disease directly related to its persistence and extinction. Finally, we obtain a critical value for r that indicates the minimum treatment effort needed in order to clear out the disease from the population.     

‘Us’ and ‘Them’: The role of religion in mediating and challenging the ‘model minority’ and other civic boundaries

This article examines how Korean Americans use the cultural resources of religious communities to mediate race, ethnic, and socio-economic boundaries that have consequences for civic life. Specifically, I compare involvement of Korean Americans in second-generation Korean congregations to those in multiethnic churches. I find Korean Americans who participate in second-generation Korean churches use religion to largely reproduce images of Korean Americans as model minorities, and implicitly distance themselves from those whom they perceive as less financially successful. In contrast, Korean Americans in multiethnic congregations use religion to emphasize the commonality Korean Americans have with other minorities. By using a cultural framework that allows for the agency of individuals in identity and group boundary construction, this work more generally shows the potential for new Americans to use the cultural resources of local organizations to change existing ethnic and racial boundaries in the United States.     

The ‘Psychic Surgeon’ and the schizophrenic patient: Crisis in a ‘Medicodrama’

This paper is concerned with a Filipino psychic surgeon confronted by a particularly challenging case of a kind perhaps unprecedented in his practice. The paper describes and analyzes how the practitioner modified his usual clinical performance and adapted his actions to demands of an extremely difficult situation. The case is viewed in wider perspective relative to the significance of performative acts of healing in a pluralistic medical setting.     

The ‘europium anomaly’ in plants: facts and fiction

Plant and Soil - Rare earth elements (REEs) and normalized REE patterns determined in plant and soil samples represent powerful tools to trace biogeochemical processes during weathering, soil...     

Of ‘Disgrace’ and ‘Pain’ – Corticolimbic Interaction Patterns for Disorder-Relevant and Emotional Words in Social Phobia

Limbic hyperactivation and an impaired functional interplay between the amygdala and the prefrontal cortex are discussed to go along with, or even cause, pathological anxiety. Within the multi-faceted group of anxiety disorders, the highly prevalent social phobia (SP) is characterized by excessive fear of being negatively evaluated. Although there is widespread evidence for amygdala hypersensitivity to emotional faces in SP, verbal material has rarely been used in imaging studies, in particular with an eye on disorder-specificity. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and a block design consisting of (1) overall negative, (2) social-phobia related, (3) positive, and (4) neutral words, we studied 25 female patients with social phobia and 25 healthy female control subjects (HC). Results demonstrated amygdala hyperactivation to disorder-relevant but not to generally negative words in SP patients, with a positive correlation to symptom severity. A functional connectivity analysis revealed a weaker coupling between the amygdala and the left middle frontal gyrus in patients. Symptom severity was negatively related to connectivity strength between the amygdala and the ventromedial prefrontal and orbitofrontal cortex (Brodmann Area 10 and 11). The findings clearly support the view of a hypersensitive threat-detection system, combined with disorder-related alterations in amygdala-prefrontal cortex connectivity in pathological anxiety.     

Genetic and biochemical studies on perchloroethylene ‘in vitro’ and ‘in vivo’

Perchloroethylene (PCE) was tested in a diploid strain (D7) of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae in suspension tests with and without a mammalian microsomal activation system (S9) and ‘in vivo’ by the intrasanguineous host-mediated assay. In addition, enzyme alteration studies were performed in mice non-pretreated or pretreated with phenobarbital + β-naphthoflavone. PCE did not induce any genetic effect either ‘in vitro’ or ‘in vivo’. In the suspension test, PCE was more toxic without metabolic activation and less toxic with mammalian microsomal activation. The enzymatic determinations showed an increase of the aminopyrine demethylase activity and of the level of cytochrome P-450.     

Biomphalaria tenagophila potencial vector of Schistosoma mansoni in the Paraná River basin (Argentina and Paraguay)

Susceptibility and compatibility experiments were carried out with 700 Biomphalaria tenagophila from the Paraná River basin exposed to infection with Schistosoma mansoni. Individual infection was performed with 10 miracidia of SJ2 strain from the Paraiba valley (Brazil) originally infective to B. tenagophila. These snails were laboratory-breed progeny of B. tenagophila collected from six localities of Argentina and one from Paraguay. From Argentina: Rincón de Vences (7%) and Posadas (11%) became infected with S. mansoni and the calculation of Frandsen's index (TCP/100) shows that they were Class II poorly compatible. Those snails from Goya (22%), Maloyas (5%), and Berón de Astrada (3%) were Class III compatible to the S. mansoni. None of the 100 snails exposed from Caá-Catí became infected (Class 0 incompatible). Tested samples from Paraguay (Encarnación) were infected (20%) and compatible (Class III). It was also studied the persistence of the infection in 244 snails of the first generation (F1) of those that were susceptible from three places. It was demonstrated an increment of the susceptibility in the F1 from Maloyas (chi2 = 27.22; p = 0.0001) and Posadas (chi2 = 4.24; p = 0.04). The results point out the possibility that schistosomiasis might be able to spread into the Paraná River basin where B. tenagophila exists.     

Interplay of cysteinyl leukotrienes and TGF-β in the activation of hepatic stellate cells from Schistosoma mansoni granulomas

Hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) have a critical role in liver physiology, and in the pathogenesis of liver inflammation and fibrosis. Here, we investigated the interplay between leukotrienes (LT) and TGF-β in the activation mechanisms of HSCs from schistosomal granulomas (GR-HSCs). First, we demonstrated that GR-HSCs express 5-lipoxygenase (5-LO), as detected by immunolocalization in whole cells and confirmed in cell lysates through western blotting and by mRNA expression through RT-PCR. Moreover, mRNA expression of 5-LO activating protein (FLAP) and LTC₄-synthase was also documented, indicating that GR-HSCs have the molecular machinery required for LT synthesis. Morphological analysis of osmium and Oil-Red O-stained HSC revealed large numbers of small lipid droplets (also known as lipid bodies). We observed co-localization of lipid droplet protein marker (ADRP) and 5-LO by immunofluorescence microscopy. We demonstrated that GR-HSCs were able to spontaneously release cysteinyl-LTs (CysLTs), but not LTB_4, into culture supernatants. CysLT production was highly enhanced after TGF-β-stimulation. Moreover, the 5-LO inhibitor zileuton and 5-LO gene deletion were able to inhibit the TGF-β-stimulated proliferation of GR-HSCs, suggesting a role for LTs in HSC activation. Here, we extend the immunoregulatory function of HSC by demonstrating that HSC from liver granulomas of schistosome-infected mouse are able to release Cys-LTs in a TGF-β-regulated manner, potentially impacting pathogenesis and liver fibrosis in schistosomiasis.     

Innate immunogenicity and in vitro protective potential of Schistosoma mansoni lung schistosomula excretory–secretory candidate vaccine antigens

Excretory–secretory products (ESP) of Schistosoma mansoni developing larvae are ideal potential vaccines as such molecules may readily induce host primary immune responses, and local memory immune response effectors that would target, surround, and pursue the larvae while negotiating the lung blood capillaries. We herein characterized the cytokines response ESP, e.g., SG3PDH, 14-3-3-like protein, TPX, and calpain induce in the natural context of infection, and defined the global cytokine profile conducive to effective schistosome larvae killing. Accordingly, spleen cells (SC) taken from naïve, and 7-, or 9-day S. mansoni-infected mice were stimulated in vitro with the selected ESP, in a recombinant or multiple antigen peptide (MAP) form, and examined for production of T helper type (Th) 1, Th2, and Th17 cytokines, and the ability to mediate in vitro attrition of lung-stage schistosomula. The study indicated that larval ESP principally elicit Th1 and Th17 type cytokines. Recombinant SG3PDH was the only test ESP to additionally activate SC from S. mansoni-infected BALB/c mice to release higher IL-4 levels than unstimulated SC and mediate significant (P < 0.0001) in vitro attrition of lung-stage larvae. Thus, our data suggested that a balance between Th1, Th17, and Th2 cytokines is required for effective schistosome larval elimination.     

Curative and protective activity in rabbits after reinfection with Schistosoma mansoni: a new model of immunity?

New Zealand rabbits were infected on day 1 and challenged on days 15, 30, and 60 with 1,000 Schistosoma mansoni cercariae/animal/infection. Challenged and control rabbits were perfused 60 days after each infection, corresponding to days 75, 90, and 120 after the first exposure. No decrease in number of adult schistosomes occurred in animals reinfected 15 days after primary infection, but, when the rabbits were challenged 30 and 60 days after the first infection, worm burden reduction of 61.4% and 92.6%, respectively, was observed as compared to infection controls. These data indicate that rabbits submitted to reinfection are able to kill the worms from their primary infection, besides being protected against challenge parasites.