A model of fertility motivation,desires, and expectations early in women's reproductive careers

Abstract

We propose a general model of the relationships connecting fertility motivations, desires, and expectations in which motivations are antecedent to desires, which in turn are antecedent to expectations. We describe differences in the model as it applies to women early in their reproductive careers, specifically, after marriage but before their first birth and after their first birth but before their second. We test the model with data from 311 just‐married and 318 just‐mothered women, using LISREL to estimate structural equations for both groups. The general model fits the data well. There are three primary differences in the model with respect to the two groups of married women. How soon a woman expects her next child affects how many children she expects only among the just‐married woman. The number of children expected by the woman is the only antecedent to how soon she expects her next child among the just‐mothered women. Both positive and negative maternal motivation has effects among the just‐married women, but only negative maternal motivation has effects among the just‐mothered women. These and other differences are discussed in terms of psychological and situational developments occurring early in women's reproductive careers.     

The unwanted pregnancy

A questionnaire was submitted to the mothers of 200 consecutively delivered infants; 15% of mothers were unmarried. The results showed a high prevalence of unwanted pregnancy, most accounted for by well educated, married women having their first or second baby, and despite access to contraceptive agents. Most of the married women and over 50% of the unmarried who had not wanted to become pregnant wanted the baby after its birth.     

The Changing Timing of Births in Iran: An Explanation of the Rise and Fall in Fertility After the 1979 Islamic Revolution

Studies exploring the course of period fertility in Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution have not examined systematically the role played by changes in the timing of births. Using retrospective data from the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and frailty hazard models, this study finds that the rise in fertility in the early 1980s was due to faster transitions to the first birth among all social groups of women and to the fourth birth largely among illiterate and less educated women. In contrast, the rapid fertility decline after 1985 is attributed to slower transition to successive births, especially to the second, third, and fourth births. These findings point to the importance of education and contraceptive use (measured by length of previous birth interval) as key determinants of birth timing in Iran. Interaction between age at marriage and education positively influenced the timing of births, with stronger effects among highly educated women, suggesting that the onset of rapid fertility decline was likely driven by these highly educated women. Another interaction between the gender of prior children and education shows that birth timing, even among highly educated women, appears to have been influenced by son preference in Iran.     

Adoption of an additional infant by a Western lowland gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla).

A 10-year-old Western lowland gorilla, already caring for her own 14-month-old son, adopted a female neonate. The infant's mother (aged 7 years, 4 months) showed no interest in the infant, and it is unclear whether she abandoned the infant or whether it was seized by the dominant foster-mother. The foster-mother gave more maternal attention to the adoptee than to her own son but gave both infants the same protection. She adjusted her forms of transport to the age of each infant. The subadult mother of the neonate did not seek contact with her offspring during the first 4 weeks and in fact showed more interest in the 14-month-old male infant. Interactions between the two mothers were rare. The foster-mother's own male infant died 2 months after she had adopted the female infant. She looked after the adopted infant for 1 year, but then lost interest so that the adoptee had to be separated.     

Child spacing and two child policy in practice in rural Vietnam: cross sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the reproductive pattern of women in rural Vietnam in relation to the existing family planning policies and laws. DESIGN: Cross sectional survey with question-naires on reproductive history. SETTING: Tien Hai, a district in Red River Delta area, where the population density is one of the highest in Vietnam. SUBJECTS: 1132 women who had at least one child under 5 years of age in April 1992. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birth spacing and probability of having a third child. RESULTS: The mean age at first birth was 22.2 years. The average spacing between the first and the second child was 2.6 years. Mothers with a lower educational level, farmers, and women belonging to the Catholic religion had shorter spacing between the first and second child and also a higher probability of having a third child. In addition, women who had no sons or who had lost a previous child were more likely to have a third child. CONCLUSION: Most families do not adhere to the official family planning policy, which was introduced in 1988, stipulating that each couple should have a maximum of two children with 3-5 years'' spacing in between. More consideration should be given to family planning needs and perceptions of the population, supporting the woman to be in control of her fertility. This may imply improved contraceptive services and better consideration of sex issues and cultural differences as well as improved social support for elderly people.     

Does son preference matter?

The demand for additional children is influenced by the presence of sons within a family. This study is based on cross-sectional data of 9416 currently married women under age 50 from a Pakistan national survey in 1979-80. The analysis suggests that having at least one son in the family influences the demand for additional children. Urban and rural comparisons indicated a higher preference for sons in urban areas. Unless the socioeconomic milieu changes, son preference is likely to remain strong in Pakistan.     

Interpregnancy interval and risk of preterm birth and neonatal death: retrospective cohort study

Objective To determine whether a short interval between pregnancies is an independent risk factor for adverse obstetric outcome.Design Retrospective cohort study.Setting Scotland.Subjects 89 143 women having second births in 1992-8 who conceived within five years of their first birth.Main outcome measures Intrauterine growth restriction (birth weight less than the 5th centile for gestational age), extremely preterm birth (24-32 weeks), moderately preterm birth (33-36 weeks), and perinatal death.Results Women whose subsequent interpregnancy interval was less than six months were more likely than other women to have had a first birth complicated by intrauterine growth restriction (odds ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 1.5), extremely preterm birth (4.1, 3.2 to 5.3), moderately preterm birth (1.5, 1.3 to 1.7), or perinatal death (24.4, 18.9 to 31.5). They were also shorter, less likely to be married, and more likely to be aged less than 20 years at the time of the second birth, to smoke, and to live in an area of high socioeconomic deprivation. When the outcome of the second birth was analysed in relation to the preceding interpregnancy interval and the analysis confined to women whose first birth was a term live birth (n = 69 055), no significant association occurred (adjusted for age, marital status, height, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, previous birth weight vigesimal, and previous caesarean delivery) between interpregnancy interval and intrauterine growth restriction or stillbirth. However, a short interpregnancy interval (< 6 months) was an independent risk factor for extremely preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio 2.2, 1.3 to 3.6), moderately preterm birth (1.6, 1.3 to 2.0), and neonatal death unrelated to congenital abnormality (3.6, 1.2 to 10.7). The adjusted attributable fractions for these associations were 6.1%, 3.9%, and 13.8%. The associations were very similar when the analysis was confined to married non-smokers aged 25 and above.Conclusions A short interpregnancy interval is an independent risk factor for preterm delivery and neonatal death in the second birth.     

Patrilineal family values,family planning and variation in stature among Taiwanese six-year-olds

It has been argued that patrilineal joint family systems tend to bias family planning decisions in favour of sons. A simple model suggests that in such societies, any given son will be more highly valued by his parents (1) the fewer his brothers and (2) the earlier his birth is in the brother series. A daughter's value will be greater (1) the fewer brothers she has and (2) the earlier her birth is relative to other sisters. This study first addresses the extent of son preference as inferred from family composition data for 772 Taiwanese first-graders born in the mid-1970s in two socioeconomically distinct communities in Taipei, Taiwan. It then uses linear regression to consider whether the model criteria help account for statural variation among children in each study area when controlling for differences in measurement age, parental education and housing. With respect to family composition and gender preference, available evidence was consistent with previous surveys. While better-educated parents in the more affluent study area had significantly fewer children (p < 0.0005) and were more willing to stop without a son, girls there, as in the less affluent area, were still significantly more likely than boys to belong to large sibships (p < or = 0.005). Evidence from mean height of males and females partially accords with hypothetical predictions. In the less affluent area, the interaction effect of male birth order and the presence of younger siblings was significantly associated with mean stature (p = 0.002). Males without brothers were 2.0 cm taller than males with either an older or a younger brother (116.3 +/- 0.5 cm vs 114.3 +/- 0.4 cm). Males who had both younger and older brothers, but often no sisters, were about as tall, however, as those without brothers. A similar, but less pronounced, pattern was found among males in the more affluent area, but only among those who had sisters. These boys were also consistently shorter than boys without sisters (115.6 +/- 0.6 cm vs 117.7 +/- 0.6 cm; p = 0.001). Patterns of mean female stature did not clearly support the hypothesis. Girls in the more affluent area were relatively tall and did not show significant variation. Results among less affluent girls showed significant contrasts, but not necessarily in the predicted direction.     

MP offers a testimonial: “I've had superb care,and I'm alive today because of it”

When Beryl Gaffney, a Liberal member of Parliament, was told she had a brain tumour, she decided to take control of her own life. Instead of allowing the first doctor she saw to rush her to hospital, she travelled to Montreal and London, Ont., to get a second and third opinion. Then she showed neurologists in Atlanta her test results and asked which of the three options for treatment she had received coincided with their treatment recommendation. Today, she is back in the House of Commons, where she spends much of her time debating health care issues.     

Timing of first birth and second birth spacing in Canada

In Canadian society the influence of first birth timing on the subsequent birth interval has been eroded over time, as shown by the Canadian Fertility Survey of 1984. The influence of first birth timing is significant for second births among women married during the baby boom period, but not for those married thereafter. Religiosity, marital status, and place of residence are significant factors in second birth timing in Canada.     

Influence of root structure on root survivorship: an analysis of 18 tree species using a minirhizotron method

Fine root survivorship is an important aspect of root ecology and is known to be influenced by a suite of covariates. However, the relative importance of each covariate on root survivorship is not clear. Here, we used minirhizotron-based data from 18 woody species to evaluate the relative strength of influence on root survivorship by root diameter, branch order, soil depth, and season of root birth, and to examine how the relationship between each covariate and root survivorship differed across species. We extracted hazard ratio estimates for 16 species from published studies that performed Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, and from our own unpublished data for two Chinese temperate tree species. The mean change in hazard ratio (CHR) and corresponding coefficient of variation for each factor were calculated across species. On average, root diameter and season of root birth had stronger effects on root survivorship than branch order and soil depth. However, the effects of season varied with species and were stronger in temperate forests, whereas the influence of diameter and order were relatively consistent across species. These results suggest that root structures such as diameter and branch order should be carefully considered in root classification and sampling, and adding season of birth (particularly in temperate forests) as a covariate in root survivorship analysis should further enhance our ability in achieving a better understanding of root demography and more accurate estimates of root turnover in forests of different climate zones.     

An observed birth in a free-living chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) in Gombe National Park,Tanzania

During 19 years of study of chimpanzees in the Gombe National Park only one birth has been observed; this is probably the first such observation for any chimpanzee in the natural habitat. The birth took place in a nest in a tall tree during the morning. Details were recorded by Tanzanian field staff from a neighbouring tree. Labour and parturition are described as well as the mother’s care of the infant immediately after birth. The mother consumed the placenta as she lay in another nest. Throughout the birth process the mother’s juvenile son remained close by and watched with apparent interest. Another mother and her offspring were present during the birth and an adult male approached the mother while she was feeding on the placenta. Their behaviour is described.     

A model of fertility motivation, desires, and expectations early in women's reproductive careers

We propose a general model of the relationships connecting fertility motivations, desires, and expectations in which motivations are antecedent to desires, which in turn are antecedent to expectations. We describe differences in the model as it applies to women early in their reproductive careers, specifically, after marriage but before their 1st birth and after their 1st birth but before their 2nd. We test the model with data from 311 just-married and 318 just-mothered US women enrolled in a prospective psychology of reproduction study, using LISREL (analysis of linear structural relationships by the method of maximum likelihood) software to estimate structural equations for both groups. The general model fits the data well. There are 3 primary differences in the model with respect to the 2 groups of married women. How soon a woman expects her next child affects how many children she expects only among the just-married woman. The number of children expected by the woman is the only antecedent to how soon she expects her next child among the just-mothered women. Both positive and negative maternal motivation has effects among the just-married women, but only negative maternal motivation has effects among the just-mothered women. These and other differences are discussed in terms of psychological and situational developments occurring early in women's reproductive careers.     

The relation of son preference and religion to induced abortion: the case of South Korea

This paper explores the factors that influence the practice of induced abortion in a very low fertility society, with particular emphasis on son preference and three distinct religions: Confucianism, Buddhism and Christianity. Using multivariate logistic regression models fitted by the generalized estimating equation (GEE) method, this paper analysed the data collected by the 2000 Korea National Fertility and Family Health Survey of 6348 married women aged 15-49 years with a total of 1217 pregnancy outcomes. The results showed that the likelihood of induced abortions in women with two or more children, compared with those with one child, was significantly influenced by the sex composition of the previous children: odds ratio (OR)=12.71 (95% CI=5.49, 29.42) for women with only son(s), and OR=3.91 (95% CI=1.67, 9.14) for women with only daughter(s). At parity two, women with two sons were much more likely to have induced abortions than women with two daughters (OR=5.88, 95% CI=2.70, 12.85). Although Buddhist women were not significantly different from Confucian women in induced abortion practice, Christian women were much less likely than Confucian women to have an induced abortion (OR=0.39, 95% CI=0.18, 0.88 for women with only sons and OR=0.44, 95% CI=0.24, 0.81 for women with two children). This suggests that even in this very low fertility society, son preference and religious affiliation are significant predictors of women's practice of induced abortion.     

Preferences for sex of children: a multivariate analysis

Data from the 1973-74 Growth of Alberta Family Study were used to determine whether women who express a preference for sons versus daughters differ from each other in terms of selected characteristics. 67% of the 599 women surveyed indicated a preference for at least 1 child of each sex. However, the majority of those who wanted 3 children desired 2 sons and 1 daughter, indicating a slight son preference. Discriminant function analysis indicated the pull toward son preference was greater the higher the woman's education, the more sisters the wife has, and the higher the current family size and number of additional children expected. While the number of wife's sisters makes the greatest contribution to daughter preference among adolescent mothers, birth place (Canada) was most important among older women. Finally, it was shown that acceptance of traditional female roles was a significant discriminator among women with a strong sex preference and those with no sex preference at all. These findings suggest that sex preference may become an important factor in fertility decisions as family size continues to decrease. If sex predetermination were to become possible, an imbalance in the sex ratio is a likely result.     

A case of Lassa fever: experience at St Thomas's Hospital.

An 18-year-old Nigerian girl, normally resident in Jos, was admitted to hospital for five days before she was diagnosed as having Lassa fever. There were several atypical features in the early stages of here illness, notably the absence of prostration, pharyngitis, or bradycardia and the development of appreciable leucocytosis. Consequent control and surveillance measures required checks for 21 days on 173 people who had had contact with as first line if they had handled her or specimens without taking precautions to avoid direct skin contact with her excretions, secretions, and blood; other contacts were categorised as second line. During her time in hospital she was managed in a single room on a general ward. She visited a number of investigative departments within the hospital, and her specimens were examined in five clinical laboratories. Despite this no secondary cases occurred among either first- or second-line contacts, and there was no serological evidence of subclinical infection among any of the contacts tested (159 people).     

Four new cases of X-autosome translocation in man (author's transl)]

Four new cases of translocations involving the X chromosome are reported. The first is a balanced t(1;X) observed in an abnormal girl. In most of the cells, the normal X is inactivated. The second case is a woman with oligomenorrhea, who has had two spontaneous abortions. She carries an umbalanced t(X-autosome). In all cells, the abnormal X, including the autosomal segment, is inactivated. The third and fourth cases are a mother, and her son. The mother has oligomenorrhea, carries a t(X,X), and has a karyotype of 46,X,+der t(X;X) and that of her son is 47,XY,+der t(X;X) and shows behavioral abnormalities. The abnormal X chromosome is inactivated in all the cells analyzed.     

Determinants of birth intervals in Sudan

Using individual birth history data from the Sudan Fertility Survey, 1979, parity-related differences in fertility are demonstrated, as well as differences between socioeconomic groups. Rural women, women with no education and those married to uneducated husbands show rapid parity progression and its cumulative effects on fertility which are consistent over all birth intervals. Urban women, women with some education and those married to educated husbands, however, go rapidly through their second and third birth intervals and then more slowly at higher parities. A limitation of the study was the inability to control fully for the effects of breast-feeding and contraception. There is evidence for a reduction in high parity births, starting in the 1970s.     

The influence of age at menarche on the fertility of Chinese women

This paper examines the effect of age at menarche on children ever born (CEB). We use data from the 1997 Sample Survey of Population and Reproductive Health conducted by the China Population Information and Research Center and the State Family Planning Commission. Poisson regression models are estimated for 10,919 ever married Chinese Han women. The influence of a woman's age at menarche on her CEB is examined while controlling for the social effects of rural/urban residency, education, her number of fecund years, whether her first birth occurred before or after the initiation of China's one child policy, and her age at first marriage. The results support our hypothesized positive association between age at menarche and CEB. That is, the later a woman's age at menarche, the greater her number of children ever born. Holding the other five independent variables constant, we show that for every additional month in age at menarche, a Chinese Han woman's mean number of children ever born increases by 0.5 percent. Some of the implications of these results are explored.     

Infanticide in a Dryinid Parasitoid, Haplogonatopus atratus

When a parasitized host is superparasitized, the second comer—an immature parasitoid originating from the second oviposition—is usually handicapped relative to the first comer in the competition for the host. In Haplogonatopus atratus, however, the survival rate of second comers is frequently higher than that of first comers. Infanticide is assumed to be responsible for this phenomenon. The present report reveals that, when the female wasp of H. atratus superparasitizes, she examines several membranes between the host's abdominal terga with her stinger before laying a supernumerary egg and that, when she locates the first comer, she pierces it with her stinger to kill it. Moreover, once she catches a host she performs infanticide irrespective of whether the host is self- or conspecifically parasitized.