Spring arrival along a migratory divide of sympatric blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla)

The recent formation of a migratory divide in the blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) involves sympatrically breeding birds migrating to different overwintering quarters. Within the last 50 years, a novel migratory strategy has evolved resulting in an increasing proportion of birds now wintering in Britain instead of migrating to the traditional sites in the Mediterranean area. This rapid microevolution has been attributed to allochronic spring arrival of migrants from the respective wintering quarters leading to assortative mating. Moreover, blackcaps wintering in Britain may experience fitness advantages owing to improved local wintering conditions. We used stable hydrogen isotope signatures (δD) to scrutinize the degree of temporal segregation of blackcaps upon spring arrival and to test for carry-over effects in body condition associated with the disparate wintering environments. Although we found that migrants from Britain arrive significantly earlier on German breeding grounds than migrants from the Mediterranean region, we also found a considerable overlap in arrival times. In a resampling model, the mean probability of assortative mating of birds wintering in Britain is ≤28% in both years. These results suggest that allochrony alone is not a strong isolating barrier between the two subpopulations. Migrants from both wintering locations did not differ in terms of body mass, mass-tarsus residuals or mass-tarsus ratio and arrived in a similar reproductive disposition. Thus, blackcaps wintering in Britain do not gain an apparent fitness advantage on spring migration due to carry-over effects in body condition. Future studies should explore additional factors such as differences in song quality and habitat that might contribute to the rapid microevolution of the blackcap.     

Malaria infection and feather growth rate predict reproductive success in house martins

Carry-over effects take place when events occurring in one season influence individual performance in a subsequent season. Blood parasites (e.g. Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) have strong negative effects on the body condition of their hosts and could slow the rate of feather growth on the wintering grounds. In turn, these winter moult costs could reduce reproductive success in the following breeding season. In house martins Delichon urbica captured and studied at a breeding site in Europe, we used ptilochronology to measure growth rate of tail feathers moulted on the winter range in Africa, and assessed infection status of blood parasites transmitted on the wintering grounds. We found a negative association between haemosporidian parasite infection status and inferred growth rate of tail feathers. A low feather growth rate and blood parasite infections were related to a delay in laying date in their European breeding quarters. In addition, clutch size and the number of fledglings were negatively related to a delayed laying date and blood parasite infection. These results stress the importance of blood parasites and feather growth rate as potentially mechanisms driving carry-over effects to explain fitness differences in wild populations of migratory birds.     

Feather corticosterone reveals effect of moulting conditions in the autumn on subsequent reproductive output and survival in an Arctic migratory bird

For birds, unpredictable environments during the energetically stressful times of moulting and breeding are expected to have negative fitness effects. Detecting those effects however, might be difficult if individuals modulate their physiology and/or behaviours in ways to minimize short-term fitness costs. Corticosterone in feathers (CORTf) is thought to provide information on total baseline and stress-induced CORT levels at moulting and is an integrated measure of hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal activity during the time feathers are grown. We predicted that CORTf levels in northern common eider females would relate to subsequent body condition, reproductive success and survival, in a population of eiders nesting in the eastern Canadian Arctic during a capricious period marked by annual avian cholera outbreaks. We collected CORTf data from feathers grown during previous moult in autumn and data on phenology of subsequent reproduction and survival for 242 eider females over 5 years. Using path analyses, we detected a direct relationship between CORTf and arrival date and body condition the following year. CORTf also had negative indirect relationships with both eider reproductive success and survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak. This indirect effect was dramatic with a reduction of approximately 30% in subsequent survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak when mean CORTf increased by 1 standard deviation. This study highlights the importance of events or processes occurring during moult on subsequent expression of life-history traits and relation to individual fitness, and shows that information from non-destructive sampling of individuals can track carry-over effects across seasons.     

Baseline and stress-induced levels of corticosterone during different life cycle substages in a shorebird on the high arctic breeding grounds

After a migratory flight of several thousand kilometers to their high arctic breeding grounds, red knots (Calidris canutus islandica, Scolopacidae) showed high baseline concentrations of plasma corticosterone (58 ng/mL). Such high baseline corticosterone levels may be conditional for the right behavioral and metabolic adjustments to environmental and social stresses that shorebirds experience on arrival in an unpredictable tundra breeding environment. Despite the high baseline levels of corticosterone, red knots still showed a marked stress response during the postarrival period, with corticosterone concentrations increasing significantly during a 60-min period of confinement. Baseline levels of corticosterone declined as the breeding season progressed. Red knots with brood patches, that is, birds that had completed egg laying and commenced incubation, had a reduced adrenocortical response to the stress of confinement compared with red knots with no, or with half-developed, brood patches. This is consistent with the idea that birds breeding in extreme environments with short breeding seasons may exhibit a decreased adrenocortical response to stressful events to prevent high corticosterone concentrations from inducing interruptions of reproductive behavior.     

Carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory bird,the Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla

Population limitation models of migratory birds have sought to include impacts from events across the full annual cycle. Previous work has shown that events occurring in winter result in some individuals transitioning to the breeding grounds earlier or in better physical condition than others, thereby affecting reproductive success (carry‐over effects). However, evidence for carry‐over effects from breeding to wintering grounds has been shown less often. We used feather corticosterone (CORT_f) levels of the migratory Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla as a measure of the physiological state of birds at the time of moult on the breeding territory to investigate whether carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of this stream‐obligate bird. We show that birds arriving on wintering grounds with lower CORT_f scores, indicating reduced energetic challenges or stressors at the time of moult, occupied higher quality territories, and that these birds then achieved a better body condition during the overwinter period. Body condition, in turn, was important in determining whether adult birds returned the following winter, with birds in better condition returning at higher rates. Together these data suggest a carry‐over effect from the breeding grounds to the wintering grounds that is further extended with respect to annual return rates. Very few other studies have linked conditions during the previous breeding season with latent effects during the subsequent overwintering period or with annual survival. This study shows that the effects of variation in energetic challenges or stressors can potentially carry over from the natal stream and accumulate over more than one life‐history period before being manifested in reduced survival. This is of particular relevance to models of population limitation in migratory birds.     

Breeding phenology and winter activity predict subsequent breeding success in a trans-global migratory seabird

Inter-seasonal events are believed to connect and affect reproductive performance (RP) in animals. However, much remains unknown about such carry-over effects (COEs), in particular how behaviour patterns during highly mobile life-history stages, such as migration, affect RP. To address this question, we measured at-sea behaviour in a long-lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus) and obtained data for individual migration cycles over 5 years, by tracking with geolocator/immersion loggers, along with 6 years of RP data. We found that individual breeding and non-breeding phenology correlated with subsequent RP, with birds hyperactive during winter more likely to fail to reproduce. Furthermore, parental investment during one year influenced breeding success during the next, a COE reflecting the trade-off between current and future RP. Our results suggest that different life-history stages interact to influence RP in the next breeding season, so that behaviour patterns during winter may be important determinants of variation in subsequent fitness among individuals.     

Linking isotopic and migratory patterns in a pelagic seabird

The value of stable isotope analysis in tracking animal migrations in marine environments is poorly understood, mainly due to insufficient knowledge of isotopic integration into animal tissues within distinct water masses. We investigated isotopic and moult patterns in Cory’s shearwaters to assess the integration of different stable isotopes into feathers in relation to the birds’ transoceanic movements. Specimens of Mediterranean Cory’s shearwater Calonectris diomedea diomedea caught accidentally by Catalan longliners were collected and the signatures of stable isotopes of C (δ¹³C), N (δ¹⁵N) and S (δ³⁴S) were analysed in 11 wing and two tail feathers from 20 birds, and in some breast feathers. Based on isotopic signatures and moult patterns, the feathers segregated into two groups (breeding and wintering), corresponding to those grown in the Mediterranean or Atlantic regions, respectively. In addition, feathers grown during winter, i.e. moulted in Atlantic waters, were grouped into two isotopically distinct profiles, presumably corresponding to the two main wintering areas previously identified for Mediterranean Cory’s shearwater in tracking studies. N signatures mainly indicated the Mediterranean-to-Atlantic migration, whereas C and S signatures differed according to the Atlantic wintering area. Our results indicate that isotopic signatures from distant oceanic regions can integrate the feathers of a given bird and can indicate the region in which each feather was grown. This study thus underscores how stable isotope analysis can link marine animals to specific breeding and wintering areas, and thereby shed new light on studies involving assignment, migratory connectivity and carry-over effects in the marine environment. Xavier Ruiz deceased 27 April 2008.     

Measuring corticosterone in feathers using an acetonitrile/hexane extraction and enzyme immunoassay: feather corticosterone levels of food‐supplemented Atlantic Puffin chicks

Glucocorticoid levels measured in the blood of animals reflect hypothalamic‐pituitary‐adrenal (HPA) activity in response to predictable and unpredictable changes. In birds, circulating corticosterone is incorporated into growing feathers and provides an integrated measure of HPA activity over the period of feather growth. Measuring corticosterone in feathers can provide insight into the physiological state of birds during times when they are unavailable for blood sampling (e.g., during migratory or non‐breeding periods of the annual cycle). Building upon studies that used radioimmunoassay or liquid chromatography, we used a commercially available enzyme immunoassay kit to measure corticosterone in feathers of nestling Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica) on Gull Island, Newfoundland, Canada, in 2012, and demonstrate the benefits of sample preparation via acetonitrile/hexane purification. We used this method to measure corticosterone in feathers of Atlantic Puffin chicks that experienced differences in mass gain in a supplementary feeding study. We found a positive relationship between feather corticosterone and mass gain, and a negative relationship between feather corticosterone and pre‐treatment body condition. Because feathers were growing prior to and during the supplementary feeding period, our results also suggest that extracting seabird feather samples with acetonitrile/hexane (in addition to methanol) prior to measuring corticosterone with enzyme immunoassay is beneficial, and, as reported in previous studies, blood and feather corticosterone values reflect different measures.     

Light‐level geolocators reveal migratory connectivity in European populations of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca

Understanding what drives or prevents long‐distance migrants to respond to environmental change requires basic knowledge about the wintering and breeding grounds, and the timing of movements between them. Both strong and weak migratory connectivity have been reported for Palearctic passerines wintering in Africa, but this remains unknown for most species. We investigated whether pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca from different breeding populations also differ in wintering locations in west‐Africa. Light‐level geolocator data revealed that flycatchers from different breeding populations travelled to different wintering sites, despite similarity in routes during most of the autumn migration. We found support for strong migratory connectivity showing an unexpected pattern: individuals breeding in Fennoscandia (S‐Finland and S‐Norway) wintered further west compared to individuals breeding at more southern latitudes in the Netherlands and SW‐United Kingdom. The same pattern was found in ring recovery data from sub‐Saharan Africa of individuals with confirmed breeding origin. Furthermore, population‐specific migratory connectivity was associated with geographical variation in breeding and migration phenology: birds from populations which breed and migrate earlier wintered further east than birds from ‘late’ populations. There was no indication that wintering locations were affected by geolocation deployment, as we found high repeatability and consistency in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N stable isotope ratios of winter grown feathers of individuals with and without a geolocator. We discuss the potential ecological factors causing such an unexpected pattern of migratory connectivity. We hypothesise that population differences in wintering longitudes of pied flycatchers result from geographical variation in breeding phenology and the timing of fuelling for spring migration at the wintering grounds. Future research should aim at describing how temporal dynamics in food availability across the wintering range affects migration, wintering distribution and populations’ capacity to respond to environmental changes.     

Does winter region affect spring arrival time and body mass of king eiders in northern Alaska?

Events during the non-breeding season may affect the body condition of migratory birds and influence performance during the following breeding season. Migratory birds nesting in the Arctic often rely on endogenous nutrients for reproductive efforts, and are thus potentially subject to such carry-over effects. We tested whether king eider (Somateria spectabilis) arrival time and body mass upon arrival at breeding grounds in northern Alaska were affected by their choice of a winter region in the Bering Sea. We captured birds shortly after arrival on breeding grounds in early June 2002–2006 at two sites in northern Alaska and determined the region in which individuals wintered using satellite telemetry or stable isotope ratios of head feathers. We used generalized linear models to assess whether winter region explained variation in arrival body mass among individuals by accounting for sex, site, annual variation, and the date a bird was captured. We found no support for our hypothesis that either arrival time or arrival body mass of king eiders differed among winter regions. We conclude that wintering in different regions in the Bering Sea is unlikely to have reproductive consequences for king eiders in our study areas.     

Continent-wide variation in feather colour of a migratory songbird in relation to body condition and moulting locality

Understanding the causes of variation in feather colour in free-living migratory birds has been challenging owing to our inability to track individuals during the moulting period when colours are acquired. Using stable-hydrogen isotopes to estimate moulting locality, we show that the carotenoid-based yellow-orange colour of American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) tail feathers sampled on the wintering grounds in Central America and the Caribbean is related to the location where feathers were grown the previous season across North America. Males that moulted at southerly latitudes were more likely to grow yellowish feathers compared with males that moulted more orange-red feathers further north. Independent samples obtained on both the breeding and the wintering grounds showed that red chroma-an index of carotenoid content-was not related to the mean daily feather growth rate, suggesting that condition during moult did not influence feather colour. Thus, our results support the hypothesis that feather colour is influenced by ecological conditions at the locations where the birds moulted. We suggest that these colour signals may be influenced by geographical variation in diet related to the availability of carotenoids.     

Color expression in experimentally regrown feathers of an overwintering migratory bird: implications for signaling and seasonal interactions

Plumage coloration in birds plays a critical role in communication and can be under selection throughout the annual cycle as a sexual and social signal. However, for migratory birds, little is known about the acquisition and maintenance of colorful plumage during the nonbreeding period. Winter habitat could influence the quality of colorful plumage, ultimately carrying over to influence sexual selection and social interactions during the breeding period. In addition to the annual growth of colorful feathers, feather loss from agonistic interactions or predator avoidance could require birds to replace colorful feathers in winter or experience plumage degradation. We hypothesized that conditions on the wintering grounds of migratory birds influence the quality of colorful plumage. We predicted that the quality of American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) tail feathers regrown after experimental removal in Jamaica, West Indies, would be positively associated with habitat quality, body condition, and testosterone. Both yearling (SY) and adult (ASY) males regrew feathers with lower red chroma, suggesting reduced carotenoid content. While we did not observe a change in hue in ASY males, SY males shifted from yellow to orange plumage resembling experimentally regrown ASY feathers. We did not observe any effects of habitat, testosterone, or mass change. Our results demonstrate that redstarts are limited in their ability to adequately replace colorful plumage, regardless of habitat, in winter. Thus, feather loss on the nonbreeding grounds can affect social signals, potentially negatively carrying over to the breeding period.     

Rainfall at African wintering grounds predicts age‐specific probability of haemosporidian infection in a migratory passerine bird

In migratory species breeding in temperate zones and wintering in tropical areas, the prevalence of blood parasites may be affected by migratory strategies and winter habitat choice. We explored whether African winter habitat was linked to the probability of haemosporidian infection in the House Martin Delichon urbicum breeding in Spain, and tested for potential differences between age‐classes. As a proxy for winter habitat features, we analysed stable isotope (δ²H, δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) values of winter‐grown feathers moulted in tropical Africa. Rainfall at the African winter grounds was related to the probability of being infected with haemosporidians and this effect differed among age‐classes. We found that haemosporidian prevalence was similar for young and experienced birds wintering in habitats of higher rainfall (²H‐depleted), whereas there were great differences in winter habitats of lower rainfall (²H‐enriched), with young having a much higher prevalence compared with experienced birds. Likewise, experienced birds wintering in habitats of higher rainfall had a higher probability of haemosporidian infection compared with experienced birds wintering in habitats of lower rainfall. By contrast, young birds wintering in habitats of lower rainfall had a higher probability of haemosporidian infection compared with young birds wintering in habitats of higher rainfall. These outcomes highlight the interaction of age with haemosporidian infection in the migratory ecology of the House Martin, which may drive carry‐over effects in this long‐distance aerial insectivore.     

Migratory connectivity in a declining bird species: using feather isotopes to inform demographic modelling

Aim Conservation programmes for endangered migratory species or populations require locating and evaluating breeding, stopover and wintering areas. We used multiple stable isotopes in two endangered European populations of wrynecks, Jynx torquilla L., to locate wintering regions and assess the degree of migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering populations. Location Switzerland and Germany. Methods We analysed stable nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), carbon (δ¹³C) and hydrogen (δD) isotopes from wing feathers from two populations of wrynecks to infer their wintering origins and to assess the strength of migratory connectivity. We tested whether variation in feather isotopic values within the Swiss population was affected by bird age and collection year and then considered differences in isotopic values between the two breeding populations. We used isotopic values of summer‐ and winter‐grown feathers to estimate seasonal distributions. Finally, we calculated a species‐specific δD discrimination factor between feathers and mean annual δD values to assign winter‐grown feathers to origin. Results Bird age and collection year caused substantial isotopic variation in winter‐grown feathers, which may be because of annually variable weather conditions, movements of birds among wintering sites and/or reflect asynchronous moulting or selection pressure. The large isotopic variance in winter‐grown feathers nevertheless suggested low migratory connectivity for each breeding population, with partially overlapping wintering regions for the two populations. Main conclusions Isotopic variance in winter‐grown feathers of two breeding populations of wrynecks and their geographical assignment point to defined, albeit overlapping, wintering areas, suggesting both leapfrog migration and low migratory connectivity. On this basis, integrative demographic models can be built looking at seasonal survival patterns with links to local environmental conditions on both breeding and wintering grounds, which may elucidate causes of declines in migratory bird species.     

Connecting breeding and wintering grounds of Neotropical migrant songbirds using stable hydrogen isotopes: a call for an isotopic atlas of migratory connectivity

There is an overdue and urgent need to establish patterns of migratory connectivity linking breeding grounds, stopover sites, and wintering grounds of migratory birds. Such information allows more effective application of conservation efforts by applying focused actions along movement trajectories at the population level. Stable isotope methods, especially those using stable hydrogen isotope abundance in feathers (δ²H_f) combined with Bayesian assignment techniques incorporating prior information such as relative abundance of breeding birds, now provide a fast and reliable means of establishing migratory connectivity, especially for Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and molt prior to fall migration. Here we demonstrate how opportunistic sampling of feathers of 30 species of wintering birds in Cuba, Venezuela, Guatemala, Puerto Rico, and Mexico, regions that have typically been poorly sampled for estimating migratory connectivity, can be assigned to breeding areas in North America through both advanced spatial assignment to probability surfaces and through simpler map lookup approaches. Incorporating relative abundance information from the North American Breeding Bird Survey in our Bayesian assignment models generally resulted in a reduction in potential assignment areas on breeding grounds. However, additional tools to constrain longitude such as DNA markers or other isotopes would be desirable for establishing breeding or molt origins of species with broad longitudinal distributions. The isotope approach could act as a rapid means of establishing basic patterns of migratory connectivity across numerous species and populations. We propose a large‐scale coordinated sampling effort on the wintering grounds to establish an isotopic atlas of migratory connectivity for North American Neotropical migrants and suggest that isotopic variance be considered as a valuable metric to quantify migratory connectivity. This initiative could then act as a strategic template to guide further efforts involving stable isotopes, light‐sensitive geolocators, and other technologies.     

Different means to the same end: long-distance migrant seabirds from two colonies differ in behaviour, despite common wintering grounds

Although seabirds that are trans-equatorial migrants show apparently broad overlap among populations in the non-breeding season, such large-scale pattern may conceal subtle but nevertheless key differences in migratory behaviour. These specializations could reflect adaptation to different environments during the breeding season, carry-over effects from the breeding to the nonbreeding period, or asymmetries in competitive ability of birds of different origin. We compared the migratory and wintering behaviour of Cory's shearwaters Calonectris diomedea nesting in Berlengas and in the Selvagens, two colonies in contrasting oceanographic environments, separated by ca. 1200 km. Although no differences were found in winter distribution, there was a marked divergence in timing, route and the use of staging areas during the postbreeding (autumn) migration. Birds from Berlengas typically travelled to oceanic waters in the North Atlantic for an extended stopover, whereas those from Selvagens rarely did so. In the South Atlantic, birds from Selvagens spent more time in flight, perhaps because they had higher energy and nutrient requirements for feather replacement compared to birds from Berlengas, which moult more flight feathers during breeding. Stable isotope analyses of feathers suggested that this variation in activity patterns was unrelated to trophic ecology. Differences in migration routes and stopovers may expose populations to distinct threats, and should be taken into consideration when defining units for conservation purposes and developing appropriate management strategies.     

Survivorship across the annual cycle of a migratory passerine,the willow flycatcher

Annual survivorship in migratory birds is a product of survival across the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding, wintering, and migration), and may vary substantially among these periods. Determining which periods have the highest mortality, and thus are potentially limiting a population, is important especially for species of conservation concern. To estimate survival probabilities of the willow flycatcher Empidonax traillii in each of the different periods, we combined demographic data from a 10‐year breeding season study with that from a 5‐year wintering grounds study. Estimates of annual apparent survival for breeding and wintering periods were nearly identical (65–66%), as were estimates of monthly apparent survival for both breeding and wintering stationary periods (98–99%). Because flycatchers spend at least half the year on the wintering grounds, overall apparent survivorship was lower (88%) on the wintering grounds than on the breeding grounds (97%). The migratory period had the highest mortality rate, accounting for 62% of the estimated annual mortality even though it comprises only one quarter or less of the annual cycle. The migratory period in the willow flycatcher and many other neotropical migrants is poorly understood, and further research is needed to identify sources of mortality during this crucial period.     

Photoperiodic response may facilitate adaptation to climatic change in long-distance migratory birds

Recent climatic change is causing spring events in northern temperate regions to occur earlier in the year. As a result, migratory birds returning from tropical wintering sites may arrive too late to take full advantage of the food resources on their breeding grounds. Under these conditions, selection will favour earlier spring arrival that could be achieved by overwintering closer to the breeding grounds. However, it is unknown how daylength conditions at higher latitudes will affect the timing of life cycle stages. Here, we show in three species of Palaearctic-African migratory songbirds that a shortening of migration distance induces an advancement of springtime activities. Birds exposed to daylengths simulating migration to and wintering in southern Europe considerably advanced their spring migratory activity and testicular development. This response to the novel photoperiodic environment will enable birds wintering further north to advance spring arrival and to start breeding earlier. Thus, phenotypic flexibility in response to the photoperiod may reinforce selection for shorter migration distance if spring temperatures continue to rise.     

Birds of a feather winter together: migratory connectivity in the Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus

To investigate migratory connectivity in the Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus, we analysed (1) all available sub-Saharan ringing recoveries and (2) stable isotopes in feathers grown in Africa sampled at 17 European breeding sites across a migratory divide. A cluster analysis of ringing recoveries showed remarkable connectivity between breeding and non-breeding grounds. Two main clusters represented populations taking the two main migratory routes [southwesterly (SW) and southeasterly (SE)]. Stable isotope analysis confirmed the separation of wintering areas of SW- and SE-migrating populations. Higher δ¹⁵N values in feathers of SE-migrating birds indicated that they occupied more xeric biome types. Values of δ¹³C that did not differ significantly among populations were higher than those from feathers of known European origin and indicated a C4 biome. Three populations with an unknown migratory direction were assigned to the SE-migrating populations on the basis of δ¹⁵N values.     

Carry-over effects and habitat quality in migratory populations

Determining the factors that influence migratory population abundance has been constrained by the inability to connect events in different periods of the annual cycle. Carry-over effects are events that occur in one season but influence individual success the following season and recent empirical evidence suggests that they may play an important role in migratory population dynamics. Using a long distance migratory shorebird as an example, I incorporate carry-over effects and changes in the relative amount of habitat quality into a density-dependent equilibrium population model. The model uses the example where the quality of habitat on the wintering grounds (nonbreeding season) influences breeding output the following summer (breeding season). Carry-over effects, however, may be manifested in a number of other ways that could influence population dynamics. In the simulations, population declines occur when habitat is lost on the wintering grounds. However, results show that carry-over effects can magnify these declines when a disproportionate amount of high quality habitat is lost the previous winter. Simulations also show that carry-over effects can have a relative, positive impact on population size when the majority of habitat that is lost in the previous season is low quality. In this case, the carry-over interacts with density-dependence the following season producing an additive and positive effect, buffering the population from severe declines. To predict changes in population size of migratory animals, it will be important to determine (i) which demographic factors in which season produce strong carry-over effects and, (ii) not just the amount, but the relative quality of habitat that is lost. If carry-over effects are significant, they could potentially mitigate 'seasonal compensation effects' from density-dependence, leading to exacerbated population declines.