A standardised approach to calculating floodplain tree condition to support environmental watering decisions

Ground-based visual assessment of crown condition is a cornerstone of tree condition assessment globally, and numerous condition assessment approaches have evolved to address the needs and perspectives of different users. In Australia’s iconic Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), stands of floodplain eucalypts are increasingly vulnerable to a range of interacting stressors related to climate change and over-extraction of water for consumptive and agricultural use. A standardised approach developed in 2008 for assessing floodplain trees within the MDB provides extensive guidance to ensure field data is collected consistently. However, there is minimal instruction on how to interpret data, and consequently a range of evaluation approaches have evolved. The lack of a standardised reporting framework generated by these different approaches makes it difficult for floodplain managers and environmental water holders to make repeatable, robust decisions for prioritising water allocations across competing locations. To provide improved lines of evidence to support decision making, this paper describes a ‘best-practise’ approach to calculating a tree condition score from field data. Within, we document existing approaches in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and recommend a method that meets the needs of floodplain managers as a pragmatic reporting, communication and decision support tool that does not require statistical analysis. Case studies and a revised conceptual model of tree decline and recovery are provided to demonstrate the validity of the recommended approach.

     

A maximum likelihood approach to non-linear ordination

Summary A non-linear method of ordinating vegetation samples based on the fitting of bell-shaped response curves is lescribed. For each species two Gaussian curves were itted, one to quantitative values, where the species was present, the other to probabilities of absence. A maximum likelihood approach was then used to obtain a best approximation of the positions of the samples along a one-dimensional gradient. By an iterative process successively better approximations were obtained.The method was successful in recovering gradients based on hypothetical data. With two sets of real data the gradient produced was more ecologically satisfying and far less distorted than that revealed by principal component analysis.     

A maximum likelihood approach to two-dimensional crystals

Maximum likelihood (ML) processing of transmission electron microscopy images of protein particles can produce reconstructions of superior resolution due to a reduced reference bias. We have investigated a ML processing approach to images centered on the unit cells of two-dimensional (2D) crystal images. The implemented software makes use of the predictive lattice node tracking in the MRC software, which is used to window particle stacks. These are then noise-whitened and subjected to ML processing. Resulting ML maps are translated into amplitudes and phases for further processing within the 2dx software package. Compared with ML processing for randomly oriented single particles, the required computational costs are greatly reduced as the 2D crystals restrict the parameter search space. The software was applied to images of negatively stained or frozen hydrated 2D crystals of different crystal order. We find that the ML algorithm is not free from reference bias, even though its sensitivity to noise correlation is lower than for pure cross-correlation alignment. Compared with crystallographic processing, the newly developed software yields better resolution for 2D crystal images of lower crystal quality, and it performs equally well for well-ordered crystal images.     

Multivariate approach to calculating the recurrence risk in families with multifactorial diseases

To resolve one of the main theoretical problems of genetic counselling, namely, calculation of the recurrence risk for common diseases, a multivariate approach is suggested, based on the multifactorial model. The model suggests partially different liability for several diseases or various forms of a disease. The specified recurrence risk for each family can be calculated with the account of different morbidity rates for different sexes and the degree of kinship to proband. The input data for computer calculations are: population incidence of diseases, their heritabilities as well as genetical and environmental correlations between the diseases. Our method is illustrated by calculation of the recurrence risk for diabetes mellitus (DM) and bronchial asthma (BA), each of which may be subdivided into several forms. It is proposed that the nature of genetic correlations is different for two diseases. The phenotypic forms of DM are genetically independent, whereas the forms of BA have a common genetic basis.     

A maximum likelihood approach to correlation dimension and entropy estimation

To obtain the correlation dimension and entropy from an experimental time series we derive estimators for these quantities together with expressions for their variances using a maximum likelihood approach. The validity of these expressions is supported by Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate the use of the estimators with a local recording of atrial fibrillation obtained from a conscious dog.     

A likelihood approach for functional response models

Functional response is an important determinant of community dynamics, and thus empirical methods for characterizing functional responses are as important in understanding ecological processes. The most commonly used method is based on the sum of squares, and the maximum likelihood method is rarely used. When the likelihood method is used, potentially inappropriate probability distributions such as binomial distributions are typically assumed for the number of prey eaten in experiments. In this study, I present a likelihood approach in which the probability distributions are generated by mechanistic understanding of predation processes using Monte Carlo simulations. An example is given on the Holling type II functional response model, but the method is flexible and allows characterization of a wide variety of functional response models. In the example, the likelihood method consistently resulted in superior estimates than the least squares method.     

An approximate maximum likelihood approach, applied to phylogenetic trees.

A novel type of approximation scheme to the maximum likelihood (ML) approach is presented and discussed in the context of phylogenetic tree reconstruction from aligned DNA sequences. It is based on a parameterized approximation to the conditional distribution of hidden variables (related, e.g., to the sequences of unobserved branch point ancestors) given the observed data. A modified likelihood, based on the extended data, is then maximized with respect to the parameters of the model as well as to those involved in the approximation. With a suitable form of the approximation, the proposed method allows for simpler updating of the parameters, at the cost of an increased parameter count and a slight decrease in performance. The method is tested on phylogenetic tree reconstruction from artificially generated sequences, and its performance is compared to that of ML, showing that the approach is competitive for reasonably similar sequences. The method is also applied to real DNA sequences from primates, yielding a result consistent with those obtained by other standard algorithms.     

EMMLi: A maximum likelihood approach to the analysis of modularity

Identification of phenotypic modules, semiautonomous sets of highly correlated traits, can be accomplished through exploratory (e.g., cluster analysis) or confirmatory approaches (e.g., RV coefficient analysis). Although statistically more robust, confirmatory approaches are generally unable to compare across different model structures. For example, RV coefficient analysis finds support for both two‐ and six‐module models for the therian mammalian skull. Here, we present a maximum likelihood approach that takes into account model parameterization. We compare model log‐likelihoods of trait correlation matrices using the finite‐sample corrected Akaike Information Criterion, allowing for comparison of hypotheses across different model structures. Simulations varying model complexity and within‐ and between‐module contrast demonstrate that this method correctly identifies model structure and parameters across a wide range of conditions. We further analyzed a dataset of 3‐D data, consisting of 61 landmarks from 181 macaque (Macaca fuscata) skulls, distributed among five age categories, testing 31 models, including no modularity among the landmarks and various partitions of two, three, six, and eight modules. Our results clearly support a complex six‐module model, with separate within‐ and intermodule correlations. Furthermore, this model was selected for all five age categories, demonstrating that this complex pattern of integration in the macaque skull appears early and is highly conserved throughout postnatal ontogeny. Subsampling analyses demonstrate that this method is robust to relatively low sample sizes, as is commonly encountered in rare or extinct taxa. This new approach allows for the direct comparison of models with different parameterizations, providing an important tool for the analysis of modularity across diverse systems.     

A likelihood approach to estimating animal density from binary acoustic transects

We propose an approximate maximum likelihood method for estimating animal density and abundance from binary passive acoustic transects, when both the probability of detection and the range of detection are unknown. The transect survey is purposely designed so that successive data points are dependent, and this dependence is exploited to simultaneously estimate density, range of detection, and probability of detection. The data are assumed to follow a homogeneous Poisson process in space, and a second-order Markov approximation to the likelihood is used. Simulations show that this method has small bias under the assumptions used to derive the likelihood, although it performs better when the probability of detection is close to 1. The effects of violations of these assumptions are also investigated, and the approach is found to be sensitive to spatial trends in density and clustering. The method is illustrated using real acoustic data from a survey of sperm and humpback whales.     

A likelihood approach to estimating phylogeny from discrete morphological character data

Evolutionary biologists have adopted simple likelihood models for purposes of estimating ancestral states and evaluating character independence on specified phylogenies; however, for purposes of estimating phylogenies by using discrete morphological data, maximum parsimony remains the only option. This paper explores the possibility of using standard, well-behaved Markov models for estimating morphological phylogenies (including branch lengths) under the likelihood criterion. An important modification of standard Markov models involves making the likelihood conditional on characters being variable, because constant characters are absent in morphological data sets. Without this modification, branch lengths are often overestimated, resulting in potentially serious biases in tree topology selection. Several new avenues of research are opened by an explicitly model-based approach to phylogenetic analysis of discrete morphological data, including combined-data likelihood analyses (morphology + sequence data), likelihood ratio tests, and Bayesian analyses.     

A hybrid likelihood algorithm for risk modelling

The risk of radiation-induced cancer is assessed through the follow-up of large cohorts, such as atomic bomb survivors or underground miners who have been occupationally exposed to radon and its decay products. The models relate to the dose, age and time dependence of the excess tumour rates, and they contain parameters that are estimated in terms of maximum likelihood computations. The computations are performed with the software package EPICURE, which contains the two main options of person-by person regression or of Poisson regression with grouped data. The Poisson regression is most frequently employed, but there are certain models that require an excessive number of cells when grouped data are used. One example involves computations that account explicitly for the temporal distribution of continuous exposures, as they occur with underground miners. In past work such models had to be approximated, but it is shown here that they can be treated explicitly in a suitably reformulated person-by person computation of the likelihood. The algorithm uses the familiar partitioning of the log-likelihood into two terms,L ₁ andL ₀. The first term,L ₁, represents the contribution of the events (tumours). It needs to be evaluated in the usual way, but constitutes no computational problem. The second term,L ₀, represents the event-free periods of observation. It is, in its usual form, unmanageable for large cohorts. However, it can be reduced to a simple form, in which the number of computational steps is independent of cohort size. The method requires less computing time and computer memory, but more importantly it leads to more stable numerical results by obviating the need for grouping the data. The algorithm may be most relevant to radiation risk modelling, but it can facilitate the modelling of failure-time data in general.     

A maximum likelihood approach to the detection of selection from a phylogeny

Summary A large amount of information is contained within the phylogentic relationships between species. In addition to their branching patterns it is also possible to examine other aspects of the biology of the species. The influence that deleterious selection might have is determined here. The likelihood of different phylogenies in the presence of selection is explored to determine the properties of such a likelihood surface. The calculation of likelihoods for a phylogeny in the presence and absence of selection, permits the application of a likelihood ratio test to search for selection. It is shown that even a single selected site can have a strong effect on the likelihood. The method is illustrated with an example fromDrosophila melanogaster and suggests that delerious selection may be acting on transposable elements.     

A semiparametric likelihood approach to joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data

Joint models for a time-to-event (e.g., survival) and a longitudinal response have generated considerable recent interest. The longitudinal data are assumed to follow a mixed effects model, and a proportional hazards model depending on the longitudinal random effects and other covariates is assumed for the survival endpoint. Interest may focus on inference on the longitudinal data process, which is informatively censored, or on the hazard relationship. Several methods for fitting such models have been proposed, most requiring a parametric distributional assumption (normality) on the random effects. A natural concern is sensitivity to violation of this assumption; moreover, a restrictive distributional assumption may obscure key features in the data. We investigate these issues through our proposal of a likelihood-based approach that requires only the assumption that the random effects have a smooth density. Implementation via the EM algorithm is described, and performance and the benefits for uncovering noteworthy features are illustrated by application to data from an HIV clinical trial and by simulation.