A spatially explicit neutral model of beta-diversity in tropical forests

To represent species turnover in tropical rain forest, we use a neutral model where a tree's fate is not affected by what species it belongs to, seeds disperse a limited distance from their parents, and speciation is in equilibrium with random extinction. We calculate the similarity function, the probability F(r) that two trees separated by a distance r belong to the same species, assuming that the dispersal kernel P(r), the distribution of seeds about their parents and the prospects of mortality and reproduction, are the same for all trees regardless of their species. If P(r) is radially symmetric Gaussian with mean-square dispersal distance sigma, F(r) can be expressed in closed form. If P(r) is a radially symmetric Cauchy distribution, then, in two-dimensional space, F(r) is proportional to 1/r for large r. Analytical results are compared with individual-based simulations, and the relevance to field observations is discussed.     

Quantitative predictions for patch occupancy of capercaillie in fragmented habitats

A major conclusion of studying metapopulation biology is that species conservation should favor regional rather than local population persistence. Regional persistence is tightly linked to size, spatial configuration and quality of habitat patches. Hence it is important for the management of endangered species that priority patches can be identified. We developed a predictive model of patch occupancy by capercaillie, a threatened grouse species, based on a single snapshot of data. We used logistic regression to predict patch occupancy as a function of patch size, isolation, connectivity, relative altitude, and biogeographical area. The probability of a patch being occupied increased with patch size and increasing altitude, and decreased with increasing distance to the next occupied patch. Patch size was the most important predictor although occupied patches varied considerably in size. Our model only uses data on the number, size and spatial configuration of habitat patches. It is a useful tool to designate priority areas for conservation, i.e. large core patches with high resilience in habitat quality, smaller island‐patches that still have high probability of being inhabited or becoming recolonised, and patches functioning as “stepping stones”. If capercaillie is to be preserved, habitat suitability needs to be maintained in a functional network of patches that account for size and inter‐patch distance thresholds as found in this study. We suggest that similar area‐isolation relationships are valid for almost any region within the distribution range of capercaillie. The thresholds for occupancy are however likely to depend on characteristics of the respective landscape. The outcome of our study emphasises the need for future investigations that explore the relationship between patch occupancy, matrix quality and its resistance to dispersing individuals.     

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.     

cdpop: A spatially explicit cost distance population genetics program

Spatially explicit simulation of gene flow in complex landscapes is essential to explain observed population responses and provide a foundation for landscape genetics. To address this need, we wrote a spatially explicit, individual-based population genetics model (cdpop). The model implements individual-based population modelling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele mutation on a resistant landscape. The model simulates changes in population and genotypes through time as functions of individual based movement, reproduction, mortality and dispersal on a continuous cost surface. This model will be a valuable tool for the study of landscape genetics by increasing our understanding about the effects of life history, vagility and differential models of landscape resistance on the genetic structure of populations in complex landscapes.     

Mate finding, dispersal distances and population growth in invading species: a spatially explicit model

The expansion of populations into new areas is dependent upon dispersal distances and the ability of colonists to find mates. These factors interact through the spatial distribution of individuals. We develop a mechanistic, spatially explicit model to investigate the interaction between dispersal distances and mate finding in expanding populations. At high dispersal distances and low mate finding abilities, population growth was constrained by the inverse density dependent inability of adults to find mates (an Allee effect). In contrast, at low dispersal distances and high mate finding abilities, growth was constrained by the density dependent inability of dispersers to find vacant territories. Population growth was highest in between these extremes. We suggest that these spatial interactions play an important role in the expansion of populations into new areas and that this methodology provides a useful tool for investigating them.     

凋落叶空间扩散模型在常绿阔叶林的适用性分析

利用凋落叶空间扩散模型研究单株植物的凋落叶扩散过程,这对预测凋落叶在地表的分布格局有重要意义.本文依据浙江天童20 hm²动态监测样地植被调查数据和叶凋落量数据,分别对20种目标树种进行凋落叶空间扩散模型的拟合,以及模型适用性分析.模型假设叶凋落量和植株胸径之间服从异速生长关系,并且叶凋落量随距离呈指数降低,通过极大似然法估计模型参数.结果表明： 所有树种实际叶凋落量和理论叶凋落量相关性显著;但树种间的模型预测精度相差较大,各树种理论叶凋落量解释实际叶凋落量变异的百分比为16.0%～74.0%,平均为49.3%.模型预测精度与叶凋落量数据的标准差、树种平均胸径、树种平均叶片干质量呈显著正相关.根据各树种的分布格局,使凋落物筐覆盖到不同胸径母树周围不同距离处,确定各树种的最优扩散函数,以及不断改进已有的扩散函数可以提高模型的预测精度.     

Patch occupancy, population density and dynamics in a fragmented red squirrel Sciurusvulgaris population

We studied population dynamics of red squirrels in a group of small forest fragments, that cover only 6.5% of the total study area (4664 ha) and where distances to the nearest source population were up to 2.2 km. We tested effects of patch size, quality and isolation and supplementary feeding on patch occupation during 1995–99. Larger patches and patches with supplementary feeding had a higher probability of being occupied. No patch <3.5 ha was ever occupied. No effects of isolation were found, suggesting that the forest habitat in the study area is not sufficiently fragmented to influence red squirrel distribution across patches. For medium sized patches (3.7–21 ha), that were occupied some years, there was an increase in patch occupation over the years, even though overall population size tended to decrease. These patches had a high turnover, especially of males. Patches in which the squirrel population went extinct were recolonized within a year. For patches that were at least some years occupied, squirrel density depended on patch quality only. No effects of patch size, isolation and winter temperature on population density were found. These data suggest that in our study area habitat fragmentation has no effect on local squirrel density and that the random sample hypothesis explains the distribution pattern across patches.     

Evaluating spatially explicit viability of a declining ruffed grouse population

Species associated with early successional habitats have experienced dramatic declines in the eastern United States as a result of land use changes and human disruption of natural disturbance regimes. Consequently, active management is required to create early successional habitat and promote plant and animal communities that depend on periodic forest disturbance. Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) depend on recently disturbed forest habitat, and have experienced dramatic declines over the last half-century. Although ruffed grouse are extensively studied, little effort has been made to link population dynamics with habitat management at landscape scales. We used stochastic, spatially explicit population models that combined landscape conditions derived from a Geographic Information System with demographic data, and applied the model to a declining ruffed grouse population in Rhode Island, USA. We identified vital rates that influence ruffed grouse population dynamics using baseline models constructed with current demographic rates and landscape conditions, and assessed the effect of landscape-scale forest management alternatives on population persistence by running multiple management simulations. Baseline models typically predicted population decline, and we concluded that vital rates (survival and recruitment) had a greater influence on population persistence than did dispersal capability, carrying capacity, or initial population size. Management simulations predicted greater population persistence under a scenario where high-quality habitat was provided in fewer large blocks as opposed to many small blocks, and the rate at which we allowed ruffed grouse to colonize newly created habitat had a substantial impact on management success. Populations of ruffed grouse in the eastern United States are likely to continue to decline given current disturbance regimes, and our work provides a link between ruffed grouse demography and landscape-scale habitat conditions to support management decisions. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

A spatially explicit individual-based model of reinforcement in hybrid zones

Abstract An individual-based model consisting of two dioecious populations in a two-dimensional environmental grid was constructed. Each population began with, and never exceeded, 1000 individuals; extinction was allowed. Genomes consisting of 30 biallelic loci for male sexual advertisement call, female mate preference, and population origin were constructed, and lineages of each individual in the starting populations were followed for 2000 generations. Type and level of hybrid disadvantage, initial population distribution, patchiness of environmental resources, and level of mate choice were varied. Persistence of bimodal hybrid zones was nonexistent at low levels of hybrid disadvantage and universal at high levels of hybrid disadvantage, with a narrow threshold in which persistence was unpredictable. Persistence occurred at lower levels of hybrid disadvantage when populations were initially parapatric rather than sympatric, and environments were patchy rather than homogeneous. Increased divergence in mating systems occurred when hybrid disadvantage was high, hybrids were infertile, populations were initially parapatric, and increased female choice was allowed. Mating system divergence was much higher in interacting populations compared with noninteracting populations, indicating that reinforcement caused most of the observed divergence. When hybrids were infertile, reinforcement contributed to speciation, because under hybrid infertility the probability of persistence at low levels of hybrid disadvantage was positively related to mate choice. The results agree with previous one-dimensional spatial models in finding that population persistence is more likely in parapatric and patchy population distributions. In addition, the results show that hybrid infertility may facilitate the process of reinforcement and speciation.     

Coevolution across landscapes: a spatially explicit model of parasitoid-host coevolution

The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution suggests that population spatial structure may have a strong impact on coevolutionary dynamics. Therefore, coevolution must be studied across geographic scales, not just in single populations. To examine the impact of movement rate on coevolutionary dynamics, we developed a spatially explicit model of host–parasitoid coevolution. We described space as a coupled-map lattice and assumed that resistance (defined as the ability of a host to encapsulate a parasitoid egg) and virulence (defined as the successful parasitization of a host) traits were graded and costly. The model explicitly detailed population and evolutionary dynamics. When holding all parameters constant and varying only the movement rate of the host and parasitoid, profoundly different dynamics were observed. We found that fluctuations in the mean levels of resistance and virulence in the global population were greatest when the movement rate of the host and parasitoid was high. In addition, we found that the variation in resistance and virulence levels among neighboring patches was greatest when the movement rates of the host and parasitoid was low. However, as the distance among patches increased, so did the variation in resistance and virulence levels regardless of movement rate. These generalizations did not hold when spatial patterns in the distribution of resistance and virulence traits, such as spirals, were observed. Finally, we found that the evolution of resistance and virulence caused the abundance of hosts to increase and the abundance of parasitoids to decrease. As a result, the spatial distribution of hosts and parasitoids was influenced.     

The limiting behaviour of a stochastic patch occupancy model

Metapopulation models have been used to better understand the conditions necessary for the persistence of the metapopulation. In this paper, we study a stochastic patch occupancy model that incorporates variation in quality and connectivity of the habitat patches. Two important assumptions are imposed in our analysis. Firstly, the distance between patches has a special form. This amounts to assuming that migrating individuals follow certain pathways. Secondly, the area of the habitat patches is assumed to scale with the number of patches in the metapopulation. Under these assumptions, a deterministic limit is obtained as the number of patches goes to infinity. Using the deterministic limiting process, a condition for persistence of the metapopulation is derived.     

Review of the ecology of Australian urban fauna: A focus on spatially explicit processes

Abstract Cities have a major impact on Australian landscapes, especially in coastal regions, to the detriment of native biodiversity. Areas suitable for urban development often coincide with those areas that support high levels of species diversity and endemism. However, there is a paucity of reliable information available to guide urban conservation planning and management, especially regarding the trade‐off between investing in protecting and restoring habitat at the landscape level, and investing in programmes to maintain the condition of remnant vegetation at the local (site) level. We review the literature on Australian urban ecology, focusing on urban terrestrial and aquatic vertebrate and invertebrate fauna. We identify four main factors limiting our knowledge of urban fauna: (i) a lack of studies focusing at multiple ecological levels; (ii) a lack of multispecies studies; (iii) an almost total absence of long‐term (temporal) studies; and (iv) a need for stronger integration of research outcomes into urban conservation planning and management. We present a set of key principles for the development of a spatially explicit, long‐term approach to urban fauna research. This requires an understanding of the importance of local‐level habitat quality and condition relative to the composition, configuration and connectivity of habitats within the larger urban landscape. These principles will ultimately strengthen urban fauna management and conservation planning by enabling us to prioritize and allocate limited financial resources to maximize the conservation return.     

Characterizing termite assemblages in fragmented forests: A test case in the Argentinian Chaco

Abstract Termites are major decomposers in tropical ecosystems. To characterize their assemblages in terms of taxonomical and functional composition, Jones and Eggleton (2000, Journal of Applied Ecology 37, 191–203) recently proposed a standardized sampling protocol based on belt transects of 100 m × 2 m. We evaluated the representativeness of samples obtained by this protocol, and its suitability to calculate diversity statistics, by replicating it in an area of naturally fragmented subtropical forest. We sampled six 100 m transects in separate small forest islets, and one transect extended to 500 m in a large islet, recording presence/absence data (occurrences) of termite species in successive quadrats of 5 m × 2 m. In the large islet, strips of 100 m within the 500 m transect produced extremely variable species richness figures. This variability was primarily due to heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of soil‐dwelling termites. Combining non‐contiguous quadrats allowed us to span a broader diversity of microhabitats for an equal effort, providing less variable results and faster species accumulation. Individual transects of 100 m in small forest islets yielded too few samples to allow reliable estimations of total species richness, although these transects when pooled constituted a useful data set for comparison with other sites. In the focal habitat, a single 100 m transect appeared therefore inadequate to allow a reliable characterization of the termite assemblage, even at the level of a single forest islet. To improve the rate of species accumulation and to obtain diversity statistics allowing intersite comparisons, we suggest the use of smaller, non‐contiguous quadrats, and that sampling be continued until stable diversity estimates are obtained. In the habitat studied, such an alternative protocol could be adequately combined with a standardized protocol for collecting ground‐dwelling ants.     

Long-term control of species abundances in a dry grassland: a spatially explicit model

Abstract. The long-term spatio-temporal dynamics of a sparse dry-grassland community (Thymo-Festucetum) is investigated by a spatially explicit individual-based simulation model and by analytical model equations. The community (investigated over 15 yr in permanent plots) is characterized by a permanently low cover (30–50 %), mainly of the perennial tuft grass Festuca cinerea. Seedling establishment and the fate of juveniles are strongly dependent on weather conditions. The simulation programme focuses on the mechanism of clonal growth of grasses and the reproduction of tufts by fragmentation. Questions answered by the modelling approach were (1) which life-history features of the species are responsible for their persistence and for the low vegetation cover of the community and (2) what are the main mechanisms of species interactions. Different sets of simulation runs, together with the evaluation of the analytical models, show: (1) long-term persistence of the main species is possible only by a combination of sexual and clonal reproduction; the low cover is due to low germination rate, low mortality and limited growth of tufts; (2) the intra and interspecific control of the community is performed mainly via a reduction by already established individuals; (3) persistence of uncommon species relies on a diaspore buffer in, or around, the community (‘spatial mass effect’).     

Roots in space: a spatially explicit model for below-ground competition in plants

Game theory provides an untapped framework for predicting how below-ground competition will influence root proliferation in a spatially explicit environment. We model root competition for space as an evolutionary game. In response to nutrient competition between plants, an individual's optimal strategy (the spatial distribution of root proliferation) depends on the rooting strategies of neighbouring plants. The model defines and predicts the fundamental (in the absence of competition) and realized (in the presence of competition) root space of an individual plant. Overlapping fundamental root spaces guarantee smaller, yet still overlapping, realized root spaces as individuals concede some but not all space to a neighbour's roots. Root overlap becomes an intentional consequence of the neighbouring plants playing a nutrient foraging game. Root proliferation and regions of root overlap should increase with soil fertility, decline with the distance cost of root production (e.g. soil compactness) and shift with competitive asymmetries. Seemingly erratic patterns of root proliferation and root overlap become the expected outcome of nutrient foraging games played in soils with small-scale heterogeneities in nutrient availability.     

A spatially explicit model of patchy stomatal responses to humidity

Stomata of leaves can exhibit either temporally stable, spatially homogeneous behaviour or complex spatial and temporal dynamics, depending on environmental and physiological conditions. To test the ability of accepted physiological mechanisms to describe these patterns, we developed a simple, spatially explicit model of stomatal responses to humidity that incorporated hydraulic interactions among stomata. Model results showed qualitative agreement with experimental evidence for a number of phenomena: (1) at high humidities, whole-leaf steady-state conductance is a monotonic function of humidity; (2) the initial stomatal response following a perturbation in humidity is in the direction opposite to the final response, and (3) spatial dynamics include patch formation and self-organization similar to that observed in actual leaves. These comparisons do not eliminate other explanations, but do suggest that novel mechanisms need not be invoked to explain the diversity of spatial and temporal patterns of stomatal behaviour in leaves.     

A simple model of a Gyrodactylus population

Experimental populations of 20 Gyrodactylus alexanderi Mizelle &; Kritsky, 1967, on 19 isolated Gasterosteus aculeatus at 15°C increased for 2 weeks to a mean of 61, then decreased in 2 further weeks to a mean of 9. Fish that lost their fluke infestations were refractory to further infestation for about 3 weeks.The chief factors affecting fluke abundance were measured, including reproduction and mortality rates of flukes on fish, rate of shedding by the fish, mortality rates of flukes while off fish, and the rate of reattachment of the flukes. Data on these individual factors were combined to form a simple deterministic model which simulated the population changes on isolated fish. This was later made more realistic by the introduction of a random variable. When the model was tested in a multiple-host situation it predicted results close to those observed experimentally.