Dengue Virus 2 American-Asian Genotype Identified during the 2006/2007 Outbreak in Piauí, Brazil Reveals a Caribbean Route of Introduction and Dissemination of Dengue Virus in Brazil

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most widespread arthropod-borne virus, and the number and severity of outbreaks has increased worldwide in recent decades. Dengue is caused by DENV-1, DENV- 2, DENV-3 and DENV-4 which are genetically distant. The species has been subdivided into genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. DENV-2, which was isolated from dengue fever patients during an outbreak in Piaui, Brazil in 2006/2007 was analyzed by sequencing the envelope (E) gene. The results indicated a high similarity among the isolated viruses, as well as to other DENV-2 from Brazil, Central America and South America. A phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis based on DENV-2E gene sequences revealed that these viruses are grouped together with viruses of the American-Asian genotype in two distinct lineages. Our results demonstrate the co-circulation of two American-Asian genotype lineages in northeast Brazil. Moreover, we reveal that DENV-2 lineage 2 was detected in Piauí before it disseminated to other Brazilian states and South American countries, indicating the existence of a new dissemination route that has not been previously described.     

Complete Genome Sequence of Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Cosmopolitan Genotype Strain in Guangdong,China

Here we report the complete genome sequence of a dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) strain, GZ40, isolated in Guangdong, China, in 2010. A phylogenetic analysis classified GZ40 into the Cosmopolitan genotype, while previous Chinese DENV-2 isolates belong to the Asian I genotype. The reemergence of the Cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2 in China deserves further investigation.     

Circulation of Different Lineages of Dengue Virus 2, Genotype American/Asian in Brazil: Dynamics and Molecular and Phylogenetic Characterization

The American/Asian genotype of Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) was introduced into the Americas in the 80′s. Although there is no data showing when this genotype was first introduced into Brazil, it was first detected in Brazil in 1990. After which the virus spread throughout the country and major epidemics occurred in 1998, 2007/08 and 2010. In this study we sequenced 12 DENV-2 genomes obtained from serum samples of patients with dengue fever residing in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo (SJRP/SP), Brazil, in 2008. The whole open reading frame or envelope sequences were used to perform phylogenetic, phylogeographic and evolutionary analyses. Isolates from SJRP/SP were grouped within one lineage (BR3) close to isolates from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Isolates from SJRP were probably introduced there at least in 2007, prior to its detection in the 2008 outbreak. DENV-2 circulation in Brazil is characterized by the introduction, displacement and circulation of three well-defined lineages in different times, most probably from the Caribbean. Thirty-seven unique amino acid substitutions were observed among the lineages, including seven amino acid differences in domains I to III of the envelope protein. Moreover, we dated here, for the first time, the introduction of American/Asian genotype into Brazil (lineage BR1) to 1988/89, followed by the introduction of lineages BR2 (1998–2000) and BR3 (2003–05). Our results show a delay between the introduction and detection of DENV-2 lineages in Brazil, reinforcing the importance and need for surveillance programs to detect and trace the evolution of these viruses. Additionally, Brazilian DENV-2 differed in genetic diversity, date of introduction and geographic origin and distribution in Brazil, and these are important factors for the evolution, dynamics and control of dengue.     

Evidence for the co-circulation of dengue virus type 3 genotypes III and V in the Northern region of Brazil during the 2002-2004 epidemics

The reintroduction of dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3) in Brazil in 2000 and its subsequent spread throughout the country was associated with genotype III viruses, the only DENV-3 genotype isolated in Brazil prior to 2002. We report here the co-circulation of two different DENV-3 genotypes in patients living in the Northern region of Brazil during the 2002-2004 epidemics. Complete genomic sequences of viral RNA were determined from these epidemics, and viruses belonging to genotypes V (Southeast Asia/South Pacific) and III were identified. This recent co-circulation of different DENV-3 genotypes in South America may have implications for pathological and epidemiological dynamics.     

The Complete Genome Phylogeny of Geographically Distinct Dengue Virus Serotype 2 Isolates (1944-2013) Supports Further Groupings within the Cosmopolitan Genotype

Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2) isolates have been implicated in deadly outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in several regions of the world. Phylogenetic analysis of DENV-2 isolates collected from particular countries has been performed using partial or individual genes but only a few studies have examined complete whole-genome sequences collected worldwide. Herein, 50 complete genome sequences of DENV-2 isolates, reported over the past 70 years from 19 different countries, were downloaded from GenBank. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted and evolutionary distances of the 50 DENV-2 isolates were determined using maximum likelihood (ML) trees or Bayesian phylogenetic analysis created from complete genome nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) sequences or individual gene sequences. The results showed that all DENV-2 isolates fell into seven main groups containing five previously defined genotypes. A Cosmopolitan genotype showed further division into three groups (C-I, C-II, and C-III) with the C-I group containing two subgroups (C-IA and C-IB). Comparison of the aa sequences showed specific mutations among the various groups of DENV-2 isolates. A maximum number of aa mutations was observed in the NS5 gene, followed by the NS2A, NS3 and NS1 genes, while the smallest number of aa substitutions was recorded in the capsid gene, followed by the PrM/M, NS4A, and NS4B genes. Maximum evolutionary distances were found in the NS2A gene, followed by the NS4A and NS4B genes. Based on these results, we propose that genotyping of DENV-2 isolates in future studies should be performed on entire genome sequences in order to gain a complete understanding of the evolution of various isolates reported from different geographical locations around the world.     

Origin and evolution of dengue virus type 3 in Brazil

The incidence of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Brazil experienced a significant increase since the emergence of dengue virus type-3 (DENV-3) at the early 2000s. Despite the major public health concerns, there have been very few studies of the molecular epidemiology and time-scale of this DENV lineage in Brazil. In this study, we investigated the origin and dispersion dynamics of DENV-3 genotype III in Brazil by examining a large number (n = 107) of E gene sequences sampled between 2001 and 2009 from diverse Brazilian regions. These Brazilian sequences were combined with 457 DENV-3 genotype III E gene sequences from 29 countries around the world. Our phylogenetic analysis reveals that there have been at least four introductions of the DENV-3 genotype III in Brazil, as signified by the presence of four phylogenetically distinct lineages. Three lineages (BR-I, BR-II, and BR-III) were probably imported from the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean), while the fourth one (BR-IV) was probably introduced from Colombia or Venezuela. While lineages BR-I and BR-II succeeded in getting established and disseminated in Brazil and other countries from the Southern Cone, lineages BR-III and BR-IV were only detected in one single individual each from the North region. The phylogeographic analysis indicates that DENV-3 lineages BR-I and BR-II were most likely introduced into Brazil through the Southeast and North regions around 1999 (95% HPD: 1998–2000) and 2001 (95% HPD: 2000–2002), respectively. These findings show that importation of DENV-3 lineages from the Caribbean islands into Brazil seems to be relatively frequent. Our study further suggests that the North and Southeast Brazilian regions were the most important hubs of introduction and spread of DENV-3 lineages and deserve an intense epidemiological surveillance.     

Pylogenetic relationship of dengue virus type 3 isolated in Brazil and Paraguay and global evolutionary divergence dynamics

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue virus comprises four antigenically related viruses named dengue virus type 1 to 4 (DENV1-4). DENV-3 was re-introduced into the Americas in 1994 causing outbreaks in Nicaragua and Panama. DENV-3 was introduced in Brazil in 2000 and then spread to most of the Brazilian States, reaching the neighboring country, Paraguay in 2002. In this study, we have analyzed the phylogenetic relationship of DENV-3 isolated in Brazil and Paraguay with viruses isolated worldwide. We have also analyzed the evolutionary divergence dynamics of DENV-3 viruses. RESULTS: The entire open reading frame (ORF) of thirteen DENV-3 isolated in Brazil (n= 9) and Paraguay (n= 4) were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis. DENV-3 grouped into three main genotypes (I, II and III). Several internal clades were found within each genotype that we called lineage and sub-lineage. Viruses included in this study belong to genotype III and grouped together with viruses isolated in the Americas within the lineage III. The Brazilian viruses were further segregated into two different sub-lineage, A and B, and the Paraguayan into the sub-lineage B. All three genotypes showed internal grouping. The nucleotide divergence was in average 6.7% for genotypes, 2.7% for lineages and 1.5% for sub-lineages. Phylogenetic trees constructed with any of the protein gene sequences showed the same segregation of the DENV-3 in three genotypes. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that two groups of DENV-3 genotypes III circulated in Brazil during 2002-2009, suggesting different events of introduction of the virus through different regions of the country. In Paraguay, only one group DENV-3 genotype III is circulating that is very closely related to the Brazilian viruses of sub-lineage B. Different degree of grouping can be observed for DENV-3 and each group showed a characteristic evolutionary divergence. Finally, we have observed that any protein gene sequence can be used to identify the virus genotype.     

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in S?o Paulo,Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of ∼10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1–4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in São José do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000–2001. Sixty DENV-3 from São José do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R₀ = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R₀ = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.     

Twenty Years of DENV-2 Activity in Brazil: Molecular Characterization and Phylogeny of Strains Isolated from 1990 to 2010

In Brazil, dengue has been a major public health problem since its introduction in the 1980s. Phylogenetic studies constitute a valuable tool to monitor the introduction and spread of viruses as well as to predict the potential epidemiological consequences of such events. Aiming to perform the molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of DENV-2 during twenty years of viral activity in the country, viral strains isolated from patients presenting different disease manifestations (n = 34), representing six states of the country, from 1990 to 2010, were sequenced. Partial genome sequencing (genes C/prM/M/E) was performed in 25 DENV-2 strains and full-length genome sequencing (coding region) was performed in 9 strains. The percentage of similarity among the DENV-2 strains in this study and reference strains available in Genbank identified two groups epidemiologically distinct: one represented by strains isolated from 1990 to 2003 and one from strains isolated from 2007 to 2010. No consistent differences were observed on the E gene from strains isolated from cases with different clinical manifestations analyzed, suggesting that if the disease severity has a genetic origin, it is not only due to the differences observed on the E gene. The results obtained by the DENV-2 full-length genome sequencing did not point out consistent differences related to a more severe disease either. The analysis based on the partial and/or complete genome sequencing has characterized the Brazilian DENV-2 strains as belonging to the Southeast Asian genotype, however a distinction of two Lineages within this genotype has been identified. It was established that strains circulating prior DENV-2 emergence (1990–2003) belong to Southeast Asian genotype, Lineage I and strains isolated after DENV-2 emergence in 2007 belong to Southeast Asian genotype, Lineage II. Furthermore, all DENV-2 strains analyzed presented an asparagine (N) in E₃₉₀, previously identified as a probable genetic marker of virulence observed in DHF strains from Asian origin. The percentage of identity of the latter with the Dominican Republic strain isolated in 2001 combined to the percentage of divergence with the strains first introduced in the country in the 1990s suggests that those viruses did not evolve locally but were due to a new viral Lineage introduction in the country from the Caribbean.     

Invasion and maintenance of dengue virus type 2 and type 4 in the Americas

Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was first reported in the Americas in 1981, where it caused epidemics of dengue fever throughout the region. In the same year, the region's first epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever was reported, caused by an Asian strain of dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that was distinct from the American subtype circulating previously. Despite the importance of these epidemics, little is known about the rates or determinants of viral spread among island and mainland populations or their directions of movement. We employed a Bayesian coalescent approach to investigate the transmission histories of DENV-2 and DENV-4 since their introduction in 1981 and a parsimony method to assess patterns of strain migration. For both viruses there was an initial invasion phase characterized by an exponential increase in the number of DENV lineages, after which levels of genetic diversity remained constant despite reported fluctuations in DENV-2 and DENV-4 activity. Strikingly, viral lineage numbers increased far more rapidly for DENV-4 than DENV-2, indicative of a more rapid rate of exponential population growth in DENV-4 or a higher rate of geographic dispersal, allowing this virus to move more effectively among localities. We propose that these contrasting dynamics may reflect underlying differences in patterns of host immunity. Despite continued gene flow along particular transmission routes, the overall extent of viral traffic was less than expected under panmixis. Hence, DENV in the Americas has a clear geographic structure that maintains viral diversity between outbreaks.     

Emergence of a New Lineage of Dengue Virus Type 2 Identified in Travelers Entering Western Australia from Indonesia, 2010-2012

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is ubiquitous throughout the tropics. More than 70% of the current global dengue disease burden is borne by people who live in the Asia-Pacific region. We sequenced the E gene of DENV isolated from travellers entering Western Australia between 2010–2012, most of whom visited Indonesia, and identified a diverse array of DENV1-4, including multiple co-circulating viral lineages. Most viruses were closely related to lineages known to have circulated in Indonesia for some time, indicating that this geographic region serves as a major hub for dengue genetic diversity. Most notably, we identified a new lineage of DENV-2 (Cosmopolitan genotype) that emerged in Bali in 2011–2012. The spread of this lineage should clearly be monitored. Surveillance of symptomatic returned travellers provides important and timely information on circulating DENV serotypes and genotypes, and can reveal the herald wave of dengue and other emerging infectious diseases.     

A novel virus that infecting hypovirulent strain XG36-1 of plant fungal pathogen Sclerotinia sclerotiorum

Background

Dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) have been mostly circulating silently with dominant serotypes DENV-2 and DENV-3 in India. However recent times have marked an increase in DENV-1 circulation in yearly outbreaks. Many studies have not been carried out on this virus type, leaving a lacunae pertaining to the circulating genotypes, since its earliest report in India. In the present study, we sequenced CprM gene junction of 13 DENV-1 isolated from Delhi and Gwalior (North India) between 2001–2007 and one 1956 Vellore isolate as reference. For comparison, we retrieved 11 other Indian and 70 global reference sequences from NCBI database, making sure that Indian and global isolates from all decades are available for comparative analysis.

Results

The region was found to be AT rich with no insertion or deletion. Majority of the nucleotide substitutions were silent, except 3 non-conservative amino acid changes (I → T, A → T and L → S at amino acid positions 59,114 and 155 respectively) in the Indian DENV-1 sequences, sequenced in this study. Except two 1997–98 Delhi isolates, which group in genotype I; all other Indian isolates group in genotype III. All Indian genotype III DENV-1 exhibited diversity among them, giving rise to at least 4 distinct lineages (India 1–4) showing proximity to isolates from diverse geographic locations.

Conclusion

The extensive phylogenetic analysis revealed consistent existence of multiple lineages of DENV-1 genotype III during the last 5 decades in India.     

Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi,India

Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011–2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011–2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India.     

Nucleotide sequence variation of the envelope protein gene identifies two distinct genotypes of yellow fever virus.

The evolution of yellow fever virus over 67 years was investigated by comparing the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) protein genes of 20 viruses isolated in Africa, the Caribbean, and South America. Uniformly weighted parsimony algorithm analysis defined two major evolutionary yellow fever virus lineages designated E genotypes I and II. E genotype I contained viruses isolated from East and Central Africa. E genotype II viruses were divided into two sublineages: IIA viruses from West Africa and IIB viruses from America, except for a 1979 virus isolated from Trinidad (TRINID79A). Unique signature patterns were identified at 111 nucleotide and 12 amino acid positions within the yellow fever virus E gene by signature pattern analysis. Yellow fever viruses from East and Central Africa contained unique signatures at 60 nucleotide and five amino acid positions, those from West Africa contained unique signatures at 25 nucleotide and two amino acid positions, and viruses from America contained such signatures at 30 nucleotide and five amino acid positions in the E gene. The dissemination of yellow fever viruses from Africa to the Americas is supported by the close genetic relatedness of genotype IIA and IIB viruses and genetic evidence of a possible second introduction of yellow fever virus from West Africa, as illustrated by the TRINID79A virus isolate. The E protein genes of American IIB yellow fever viruses had higher frequencies of amino acid substitutions than did genes of yellow fever viruses of genotypes I and IIA on the basis of comparisons with a consensus amino acid sequence for the yellow fever E gene. The great variation in the E proteins of American yellow fever virus probably results from positive selection imposed by virus interaction with different species of mosquitoes or nonhuman primates in the Americas.     

Comparative immunological recognition of proteins from New Guinea "C" dengue virus type 2 prototype and from a dengue virus type 2 strain isolated in the State of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

The protein profiles of the New Guinea "C" dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2)prototype and those of a Brazilian DENV-2 isolated in the State of Rio de Janeiro in 1995 were compared. SDS-PAGE analysis showed that the virus from Rio de Janeiro expresses NS5 (93.0 kDa), NS3 (66.8 kDa) E (62.4 kDa) and NS1 (41.2 kDa) proteins differently from the New Guinea "C" virus. The immunoblot revealed specificity and antigenicity for the NS3 protein from DENV-2 Rio de Janeiro mainly in primary infections, convalescent cases, and in secondary infections in both cases and only antigenicity for E and NS1 proteins for both viruses in primary and secondary infections.     

Studies on membrane topology, N-glycosylation and functionality of SARS-CoV membrane protein

Background

Dengue is the most important arbovirus disease in tropical and subtropical countries. The viral envelope (E) protein is responsible for cell receptor binding and is the main target of neutralizing antibodies. The aim of this study was to analyze the diversity of the E protein gene of DENV-3. E protein gene sequences of 20 new viruses isolated in Ribeirao Preto, Brazil, and 427 sequences retrieved from GenBank were aligned for diversity and phylogenetic analysis.

Results

Comparison of the E protein gene sequences revealed the presence of 47 variable sites distributed in the protein; most of those amino acids changes are located on the viral surface. The phylogenetic analysis showed the distribution of DENV-3 in four genotypes. Genotypes I, II and III revealed internal groups that we have called lineages and sub-lineages. All amino acids that characterize a group (genotype, lineage, or sub-lineage) are located in the 47 variable sites of the E protein.

Conclusion

Our results provide information about the most frequent amino acid changes and diversity of the E protein of DENV-3.     

Co-circulation of two genotypes of Dengue virus serotype 3 in Guangzhou, China, 2009

ABSTRACT: Dengue is emerging as the most important mosquito borne viral disease in the world. In mainland China, sporadic and large outbreaks of dengue illness caused by the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1 to DENV-4) have been well documented. Guangdong province is the major affected area in China, and DENV-1 has dominantly circulated in Guangdong for a long time. In this study, a family cluster of DENV-3 infection in Guangzhou was described. Three cases were diagnosed as dengue fever based on clinical manifestation, serological and RT-PCR assays. Two DENV-3 strains were isolated in C6/36 cells and the complete genome sequences were determined. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the new DENV-3 isolates from the family cluster were grouped within genotype III. Considering the fact that several DENV-3 strains within genotype V were also identified in Guangzhou in 2009, at least two genotypes of DENV-3 co-circulated in Guangzhou. Careful investigation and virological analysis should be warranted in the future.     

Complete genomic sequence of a dengue type 2 virus from the French West Indies

Severe forms of dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever, and dengue shock syndrome, were not prominent in the Americas until the epidemic of Cuba in 1981. Since that time, they have spread to other countries in Central and South America, correlating with the spread of dengue type 2 viruses related to Southeast Asian strains. We report here the complete genomic sequence of a dengue type 2 virus isolated during the epidemic in La Martinique in 1998. This constitutes the first complete genetic characterization of a dengue virus strain from French West Indies, and also the first molecular identification in this region of a dengue 2 strain phylogenetically related to the emerging American type 2 dengue viruses.     

Molecular characterization of dengue and chikungunya virus strains circulating in New Delhi,India

Dengue and chikungunya are acute viral infections with overlapping clinical symptoms. Both diseases are transmitted by common mosquito vectors resulting in their co‐circulation in a region. Molecular and serological tests specific for both dengue and chikungunya infections were performed on 87 acute phase blood samples collected from patients with suspected dengue/chikungunya infections in Delhi from September to December, 2011. RT‐PCR and IgM ELISA were performed to detect dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV). NS1 and IgG ELISA were also performed to detect DENV specific antigen and secondary DENV infection. DENV infection was detected in 49%, CHIKV infection in 29% and co‐infection with DENV and CHIKV in 10% of the samples by RT‐PCR. DENV serotypes 1, 2 and 3 were detected in this study. Nine DENV‐1 strains, six DENV‐2 strains and 20 CHIKV strains were characterized by DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of their respective envelope protein genes. DENV‐1 strains grouped in the American African genotype, DENV‐2 strains in the Cosmopolitan genotype and CHIKV strains in the East Central South African genotype by phylogenetic analysis. This is one of the few studies reporting the phylogeny of two dengue virus serotypes (DENV‐1 and DENV‐2) and CHIKV. Surveillance and monitoring of DENV and CHIKV strains are important for design of strategies to control impending epidemics.