Evaluation of Outbreak Detection Performance Using Multi-Stream Syndromic Surveillance for Influenza-Like Illness in Rural Hubei Province,China: A Temporal Simulation Model Based on Healthcare-Seeking Behaviors

Background

Syndromic surveillance promotes the early detection of diseases outbreaks. Although syndromic surveillance has increased in developing countries, performance on outbreak detection, particularly in cases of multi-stream surveillance, has scarcely been evaluated in rural areas.

Objective

This study introduces a temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors to evaluate the performance of multi-stream syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness.

Methods

Data were obtained in six towns of rural Hubei Province, China, from April 2012 to June 2013. A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model generated 27 scenarios of simulated influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks, which were converted into corresponding simulated syndromic datasets through the healthcare-behaviors model. We then superimposed converted syndromic datasets onto the baselines obtained to create the testing datasets. Outbreak performance of single-stream surveillance of clinic visit, frequency of over the counter drug purchases, school absenteeism, and multi-stream surveillance of their combinations were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and activity monitoring operation curves.

Results

In the six towns examined, clinic visit surveillance and school absenteeism surveillance exhibited superior performances of outbreak detection than over the counter drug purchase frequency surveillance; the performance of multi-stream surveillance was preferable to signal-stream surveillance, particularly at low specificity (Sp <90%).

Conclusions

The temporal simulation model based on healthcare-seeking behaviors offers an accessible method for evaluating the performance of multi-stream surveillance.     

ISS-An Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System for Infectious Disease in Rural China

Background

syndromic surveillance system has great advantages in promoting the early detection of epidemics and reducing the necessities of disease confirmation, and it is especially effective for surveillance in resource poor settings. However, most current syndromic surveillance systems are established in developed countries, and there are very few reports on the development of an electronic syndromic surveillance system in resource-constrained settings.

Objective

this study describes the design and pilot implementation of an electronic surveillance system (ISS) for the early detection of infectious disease epidemics in rural China, complementing the conventional case report surveillance system.

Methods

ISS was developed based on an existing platform ‘Crisis Information Sharing Platform’ (CRISP), combining with modern communication and GIS technology. ISS has four interconnected functions: 1) work group and communication group; 2) data source and collection; 3) data visualization; and 4) outbreak detection and alerting.

Results

As of Jan. 31^st 2012, ISS has been installed and pilot tested for six months in four counties in rural China. 95 health facilities, 14 pharmacies and 24 primary schools participated in the pilot study, entering respectively 74256, 79701, and 2330 daily records into the central database. More than 90% of surveillance units at the study sites are able to send daily information into the system. In the paper, we also presented the pilot data from health facilities in the two counties, which showed the ISS system had the potential to identify the change of disease patterns at the community level.

Conclusions

The ISS platform may facilitate the early detection of infectious disease epidemic as it provides near real-time syndromic data collection, interactive visualization, and automated aberration detection. However, several constraints and challenges were encountered during the pilot implementation of ISS in rural China.     

Defining clinical malaria: the specificity and incidence of endpoints from active and passive surveillance of children in rural Kenya

Background

Febrile malaria is the most common clinical manifestation of P. falciparum infection, and is often the primary endpoint in clinical trials and epidemiological studies. Subjective and objective fevers are both used to define the endpoint, but have not been carefully compared, and the relative incidence of clinical malaria by active and passive case detection is unknown.

Methods

We analyzed data from cohorts under active and passive surveillance, including 19,462 presentations with fever and 5,551 blood tests for asymptomatic parasitaemia. A logistic regression model was used to calculate Malaria Attributable Fractions (MAFs) for various case definitions. Incidences of febrile malaria by active and passive surveillance were compared in a subset of children matched for age and location.

Results

Active surveillance identified three times the incidence of clinical malaria as passive surveillance in a subset of children matched for age and location. Objective fever (temperature≥37.5°C) gave consistently higher MAFs than case definitions based on subjective fever.

Conclusion

The endpoints from active and passive surveillance have high specificity, but the incidence of endpoints is lower on passive surveillance. Subjective fever had low specificity and should not be used in primary endpoint. Passive surveillance will reduce the power of clinical trials but may cost-effectively deliver acceptable sensitivity in studies of large populations.     

Improved malaria case management through the implementation of a health facility-based sentinel site surveillance system in Uganda

Background

Heath facility-based sentinel site surveillance has been proposed as a means of monitoring trends in malaria morbidity but may also provide an opportunity to improve malaria case management. Here we described the impact of a sentinel site malaria surveillance system on promoting laboratory testing and rational antimalarial drug use.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Sentinel site malaria surveillance was established at six health facilities in Uganda between September 2006 and January 2007. Data were collected from all patients presenting to the outpatient departments including demographics, laboratory results, diagnoses, and treatments prescribed. Between the start of surveillance and March 2010, a total 424,701 patients were seen of which 229,375 (54%) were suspected of having malaria. Comparing the first three months with the last three months of surveillance, the proportion of patients with suspected malaria who underwent diagnostic testing increased from 39% to 97% (p<0.001). The proportion of patients with an appropriate decision to prescribe antimalarial therapy (positive test result prescribed, negative test result not prescribed) increased from 64% to 95% (p<0.001). The proportion of patients appropriately prescribed antimalarial therapy who were prescribed the recommended first-line regimen artemether-lumefantrine increased from 48% to 69% (p<0.001).

Conclusions/Significance

The establishment of a sentinel site malaria surveillance system in Uganda achieved almost universal utilization of diagnostic testing in patients with suspected malaria and appropriate decisions to prescribed antimalarial based on test results. Less success was achieved in promoting prescribing practice for the recommended first-line therapy. This system could provide a model for improving malaria case management in other health facilities in Africa.     

Epidemiology of Disappearing Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Case Study in Rural Amazonia

Background

New frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings.

Methods

Eight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease.

Principal Findings/Conclusions

P. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March–April 2010) to 3.0% (April–May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March–April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2–3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance.     

Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in Pregnant Women in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh

Background

Pregnancy is a known risk factor for malaria which is associated with increased maternal and infant mortality and morbidity in areas of moderate-high malaria transmission intensity where Plasmodium falciparum predominates. The nature and impact of malaria, however, is not well understood in pregnant women residing in areas of low, unstable malaria transmission where P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist.

Methods

A large longitudinal active surveillance study of malaria was conducted in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh. Over 32 months in 2010–2013, the period prevalence of asymptomatic P. falciparum infections was assessed by rapid diagnostic test and blood smear and compared among men, non-pregnant women and pregnant women. A subset of samples was tested for infection by PCR. Hemoglobin was assessed. Independent risk factors for malaria infection were determined using a multivariate logistic regression model.

Results

Total of 34 asymptomatic P. falciparum infections were detected by RDT/smear from 3,110 tests. The period prevalence of asymptomatic P. falciparum infection in pregnant women was 2.3%, compared to 0.5% in non-pregnant women and 0.9% in men. All RDT/smear positive samples that were tested by PCR were PCR-positive, and PCR detected additional 35 infections that were RDT/smear negative. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, pregnant women had 5.4-fold higher odds of infection as compared to non-pregnant women. Malaria-positive pregnant women, though asymptomatic, had statistically lower hemoglobin than those without malaria or pregnancy. Asymptomatic malaria was found to be evenly distributed across space and time, in contrast to symptomatic infections which tend to cluster.

Conclusion

Pregnancy is a risk factor for asymptomatic P. falciparum infection in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh, and pregnancy and malaria interact to heighten the effect of each on hemoglobin. The even distribution of asymptomatic malaria, without temporal and spatial clustering, may have critical implications for malaria elimination strategies.     

Malaria Prevalence,Spatial Clustering and Risk Factors in a Low Endemic Area of Eastern Rwanda: A Cross Sectional Study

Background

Rwanda reported significant reductions in malaria burden following scale up of control intervention from 2005 to 2010. This study sought to; measure malaria prevalence, describe spatial malaria clustering and investigate for malaria risk factors among health-centre-presumed malaria cases and their household members in Eastern Rwanda.

Methods

A two-stage health centre and household-based survey was conducted in Ruhuha sector, Eastern Rwanda from April to October 2011. At the health centre, data, including malaria diagnosis and individual level malaria risk factors, was collected. At households of these Index cases, a follow-up survey, including malaria screening for all household members and collecting household level malaria risk factor data, was conducted.

Results

Malaria prevalence among health centre attendees was 22.8%. At the household level, 90 households (out of 520) had at least one malaria-infected member and the overall malaria prevalence for the 2634 household members screened was 5.1%. Among health centre attendees, the age group 5–15 years was significantly associated with an increased malaria risk and a reported ownership of ≥4 bednets was significantly associated with a reduced malaria risk. At the household level, age groups 5–15 and >15 years and being associated with a malaria positive index case were associated with an increased malaria risk, while an observed ownership of ≥4 bednets was associated with a malaria risk-protective effect. Significant spatial malaria clustering among household cases with clusters located close to water- based agro-ecosystems was observed.

Conclusions

Malaria prevalence was significantly higher among health centre attendees and their household members in an area with significant household spatial malaria clustering. Circle surveillance involving passive case finding at health centres and proactive case detection in households can be a powerful tool for identifying household level malaria burden, risk factors and clustering.     

Health centre surveys as a potential tool for monitoring malaria epidemiology by area and over time

Background

Presently, many malaria control programmes use health facility data to evaluate the impact of their interventions. Facility-based malaria data, although useful, have problems with completeness, validity and representativeness and reliance on routinely collected health facility data might undermine demonstration of the magnitude of the impact of the recent scaleups of malaria interventions. To determine whether carefully conducted health centre surveys can be reliable means of monitoring area specific malaria epidemiology, we have compared malaria specific indices obtained from surveys in health centres with indices obtained from cross-sectional surveys conducted in their catchment communities.

Methods

A series of age stratified, seasonal, cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the peak malaria transmission season in 2008 and during the following dry season in 2009 in six ecologically diverse areas in The Gambia. Participants were patients who attended the health centres plus a representative sample from the catchment villages of these health facilities. Parasitaemia, anaemia, attributable proportion of fever and anti-MSP1-₁₉ antibody seroprevalence were compared in the health facility attendees and community participants.

Results

A total of 16,230 subjects completed the study; approximately half participated in the health centre surveys and half in the wet season surveys. Data from both the health centre and community surveys showed that malaria endemicity in The Gambia is now low, heterogeneous and seasonal. In the wet season, parasitaemia, seroprevalence and fever prevalence were higher in subjects seen in the health centres than in the community surveys. Age patterns of parasitaemia, attributable proportions of fever and seroprevalence rates were similar in subjects who participated in the community and health centre surveys.

Conclusion

Health centre surveys have potential as a surveillance tool for evaluating area specific malaria control activities and for monitoring changes in local malaria epidemiology over time.     

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Anaemia among Children Aged between 6 Months and 14 Years in Kenya

Background

Anaemia is one of the significant public health problems among children in the world. Understanding risk factors of anaemia provides more insight to the nature and types of policies that can be put up to fight anaemia. We estimated the prevalence and risk factors of anaemia in a population-based, cross-sectional survey.

Methodology

Blood samples from 11,711 children aged between 6 months and 14 years were collected using a single-use, spring-loaded, sterile lancet to make a finger prick. Anaemia was measured based on haemoglobin concentration level. The generalized linear model framework was used to analyse the data, in which the response variable was either a child was anemic or not anemic.

Results

The overall prevalence of anaemia among the children in Kenya was estimated to be 28.8%. The risk of anaemia was found to decrease with age progressively with increase in each year of age; children below 1 year were at highest risk of anaemia. The risk of anaemia was significantly higher in male than female children. Mothers with secondary and above education had a protective effect on the risk of anaemia on their children. Malaria diagnosis status of a child was positively associated with risk anaemia.

Conclusion

Controlling co-morbidity of malaria and improving maternal knowledge are potential options for reducing the burden of anaemia.     

Lack of Avidity Maturation of Merozoite Antigen-Specific Antibodies with Increasing Exposure to Plasmodium falciparum amongst Children and Adults Exposed to Endemic Malaria in Kenya

Background

Although antibodies are critical for immunity to malaria, their functional attributes that determine protection remain unclear. We tested for associations between antibody avidities to Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) antigens and age, asymptomatic parasitaemia, malaria exposure index (a distance weighted local malaria prevalence) and immunity to febrile malaria during 10-months of prospective follow up.

Methods

Cross-sectional antibody levels and avidities to Apical Membrane Antigen 1 (AMA1), Merozoite Surface Protein 1₄₂ (MSP1) and Merozoite Surface Protein 3 (MSP3) were measured by Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay in 275 children, who had experienced at least one episode of clinical malaria by the time of this study, as determined by active weekly surveillance.

Results

Antibody levels to AMA1, MSP1 and MSP3 increased with age. Anti-AMA1 and MSP1 antibody avidities were (respectively) positively and negatively associated with age, while anti-MSP3 antibody avidities did not change. Antibody levels to all three antigens were elevated in the presence of asymptomatic parasitaemia, but their associated avidities were not. Unlike antibody levels, antibody avidities to the three-merozoite antigens did not increase with exposure to Pf malaria. There were no consistent prospective associations between antibody avidities and malaria episodes.

Conclusion

We found no evidence that antibody avidities to Pf-merozoite antigens are associated with either exposure or immunity to malaria.     

Changing patterns of malaria epidemiology between 2002 and 2010 in Western Kenya: the fall and rise of malaria

Background

The impact of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) on reducing malaria incidence is shown mainly through data collection from health facilities. Routine evaluation of long-term epidemiological and entomological dynamics is currently unavailable. In Kenya, new policies supporting the provision of free ITNs were implemented nationwide in June 2006. To evaluate the impacts of ITNs on malaria transmission, we conducted monthly surveys in three sentinel sites with different transmission intensities in western Kenya from 2002 to 2010.

Methods and Findings

Longitudinal samplings of malaria parasite prevalence in asymptomatic school children and vector abundance in randomly selected houses were undertaken monthly from February 2002. ITN ownership and usage surveys were conducted annually from 2004 to 2010. Asymptomatic malaria parasite prevalence and vector abundances gradually decreased in all three sites from 2002 to 2006, and parasite prevalence reached its lowest level from late 2006 to early 2007. The abundance of the major malaria vectors, Anopheles funestus and An. gambiae, increased about 5–10 folds in all study sites after 2007. However, the resurgence of vectors was highly variable between sites and species. By 2010, asymptomatic parasite prevalence in Kombewa had resurged to levels recorded in 2004/2005, but the resurgence was smaller in magnitude in the other sites. Household ITN ownership was at 50–70% in 2009, but the functional and effective bed net coverage in the population was estimated at 40.3%, 49.4% and 28.2% in 2010 in Iguhu, Kombewa, and Marani, respectively.

Conclusion

The resurgence in parasite prevalence and malaria vectors has been observed in two out of three sentinel sites in western Kenya despite a high ownership of ITNs. The likely factors contributing to malaria resurgence include reduced efficacy of ITNs, insecticide resistance in mosquitoes and lack of proper use of ITNs. These factors should be targeted to avoid further resurgence of malaria transmission.     

Malaria control and elimination in sri lanka: documenting progress and success factors in a conflict setting

Background

Sri Lanka has a long history of malaria control, and over the past decade has had dramatic declines in cases amid a national conflict. A case study of Sri Lanka''s malaria programme was conducted to characterize the programme and explain recent progress.

Methods

The case study employed qualitative and quantitative methods. Data were collected from published and grey literature, district-level and national records, and thirty-three key informant interviews. Expenditures in two districts for two years – 2004 and 2009 – were compiled.

Findings

Malaria incidence in Sri Lanka has declined by 99.9% since 1999. During this time, there were increases in the proportion of malaria infections due to Plasmodium vivax, and the proportion of infections occurring in adult males. Indoor residual spraying and distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets have likely contributed to the low transmission. Entomological surveillance was maintained. A strong passive case detection system captures infections and active case detection was introduced. When comparing conflict and non-conflict districts, vector control and surveillance measures were maintained in conflict areas, often with higher coverage reported in conflict districts. One of two districts in the study reported a 48% decline in malaria programme expenditure per person at risk from 2004 to 2009. The other district had stable malaria spending.

Conclusions/Significance

Malaria is now at low levels in Sri Lanka – 124 indigenous cases were found in 2011. The majority of infections occur in adult males and are due to P. vivax. Evidence-driven policy and an ability to adapt to new circumstances contributed to this decline. Malaria interventions were maintained in the conflict districts despite an ongoing war. Sri Lanka has set a goal of eliminating malaria by the end of 2014. Early identification and treatment of infections, especially imported ones, together with effective surveillance and response, will be critical to achieving this goal.     

Evaluation of the Loop Mediated Isothermal DNA Amplification (LAMP) Kit for Malaria Diagnosis in P. vivax Endemic Settings of Colombia

Background

Most commonly used malaria diagnostic tests, including microscopy and antigen-detecting rapid tests, cannot reliably detect low-density infections which are frequent in low transmission settings. Molecular methods such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are highly sensitive but remain too laborious for field deployment. In this study, the applicability of a malaria diagnosis kit based on loop-mediated isothermal amplification (mLAMP) was assessed in malaria endemic areas of Colombia with Plasmodium vivax predominance.

Methodology/Principal Findings

First, a passive case detection (PCD) study on 278 febrile patients recruited in Tierralta (department of Cordoba) was conducted to assess the diagnostic performance of the mLAMP method. Second, an active case detection (ACD) study on 980 volunteers was conducted in 10 sentinel sites with different epidemiological profiles. Whole blood samples were processed for microscopic and mLAMP diagnosis. Additionally RT-PCR and nested RT-PCR were used as reference tests. In the PCD study, P. falciparum accounted for 23.9% and P. vivax for 76.1% of the infections and no cases of mixed-infections were identified. Microscopy sensitivity for P. falciparum and P. vivax were 100% and 86.1%, respectively. mLAMP sensitivity for P. falciparum and P. vivax was 100% and 91.4%, respectively. In the ACD study, mLAMP detected 65 times more cases than microscopy. A high proportion (98.0%) of the infections detected by mLAMP was from volunteers without symptoms.

Conclusions/Significance

mLAMP sensitivity and specificity were comparable to RT-PCR. LAMP was significantly superior to microscopy and in P. vivax low-endemicity settings and under minimum infrastructure conditions, it displayed sensitivity and specificity similar to that of single-well RT-PCR for detection of both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections. Here, the dramatically increased detection of asymptomatic malaria infections by mLAMP demonstrates the usefulness of this new tool for diagnosis, surveillance, and screening in elimination strategies.     

Estimating the Effectiveness of Early Control Measures through School Absenteeism Surveillance in Observed Outbreaks at Rural Schools in Hubei,China

Background

School absenteeism is a common data source in syndromic surveillance, which allows for the detection of outbreaks at an early stage. Previous studies focused on its correlation with other data sources. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of control measures based on early warning signals from school absenteeism surveillance in rural Chinese schools.

Methods

A school absenteeism surveillance system was established in all 17 primary schools in 3 adjacent towns in the Chinese region of Hubei. Three outbreaks (varicella, mumps, and influenza-like illness) were detected and controlled successfully from April 1, 2012, to January 15, 2014. An impulse susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to fit the epidemics of these three outbreaks. Moreover, it simulated the potential epidemics under interventions resulting from traditional surveillance signals. The effectiveness of the absenteeism-based control measures was evaluated by comparing the simulated datasets.

Results

The school absenteeism system generated 52 signals. Three outbreaks were verified through epidemiological investigation. Compared to traditional surveillance, the school absenteeism system generated simultaneous signals for the varicella outbreak, but 3 days in advance for the mumps outbreak and 2–4 days in advance for the influenza-like illness outbreak. The estimated excess protection rates of control measures based on early signals were 0.0%, 19.0–44.1%, and 29.0–37.0% for the three outbreaks, respectively.

Conclusions

Although not all outbreak control measures can benefit from early signals through school absenteeism surveillance, the effectiveness of early signal-based interventions is obvious. School absenteeism surveillance plays an important role in reducing outbreak spread.     

Identifying residual foci of Plasmodium falciparum infections for malaria elimination: the urban context of Khartoum, Sudan

Background

Identifying the location and size of residual foci of infections is critical where malaria elimination is the primary goal. Here the spatial heterogeneity of Plasmodium falciparum infections within the urban extent of Khartoum state in Sudan is investigated using data from cross-sectional surveys undertaken from 1999 to 2008 to inform the Khartoum Malaria Free Initiative (KMFI).

Methods

From 1999–2008 the KMFI undertook cross-sectional surveys of 256 clusters across 203 random samples of residential blocks in the urban Khartoum state in September of each year. Within sampled blocks, at least five persons, including at least one child under the age of five years, were selected from each household. Blood smears were collected from the sampled individuals to examine the presence of P. falciparum parasites. Residential blocks were mapped. Data were analysed for spatial clustering using the Bernoulli model and the significance of clusters were tested using the Kulldorff scan statistic.

Results

A total of 128,510 malaria slide examinations were undertaken during the study period. In 1999, overall prevalence was 2.5%, rising to 3.2% in 2000 and consistently staying below 1% in subsequent years. From 2006, over 90% of all surveyed clusters reported no infections. Spatial clustering of infections was present in each year but not statistically significant in the years 2001, 2002, 2004 and 2008. Spatial clusters of high infection were often located at the junction of the Blue and White Niles.

Conclusion

Persisting foci of malaria infection in Khartoum are likely to distort wide area assessments and disproportionately affect future transmission within the city limits. Improved investments in surveillance that combines both passive and active case detection linked to a geographic information system and a more detailed analysis of the location and stability of foci should be undertaken to facilitate and track malaria elimination in the state of Khartoum.     

The Ratio of Monocytes to Lymphocytes in Peripheral Blood Correlates with Increased Susceptibility to Clinical Malaria in Kenyan Children

Background

Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a major cause of illness and death in sub-Saharan Africa. Young children bear the brunt of the disease and though older children and adults suffer relatively fewer clinical attacks, they remain susceptible to asymptomatic P. falciparum infection. A better understanding of the host factors associated with immunity to clinical malaria and the ability to sustain asymptomatic P. falciparum infection will aid the development of improved strategies for disease prevention.

Methods and Findings

Here we investigate whether full differential blood counts can predict susceptibility to clinical malaria among Kenyan children sampled at five annual cross-sectional surveys. We find that the ratio of monocytes to lymphocytes, measured in peripheral blood at the time of survey, directly correlates with risk of clinical malaria during follow-up. This association is evident among children with asymptomatic P. falciparum infection at the time the cell counts are measured (Hazard ratio (HR)  =  2.7 (95% CI 1.42, 5.01, P  =  0.002) but not in those without detectable parasitaemia (HR  =  1.0 (95% CI 0.74, 1.42, P  =  0.9).

Conclusions

We propose that the monocyte to lymphocyte ratio, which is easily derived from routine full differential blood counts, reflects an individual''s capacity to mount an effective immune response to P. falciparum infection.     

Syndromic Surveillance for Local Outbreaks of Lower-Respiratory Infections: Would It Work?

Background

Although syndromic surveillance is increasingly used to detect unusual illness, there is a debate whether it is useful for detecting local outbreaks. We evaluated whether syndromic surveillance detects local outbreaks of lower-respiratory infections (LRIs) without swamping true signals by false alarms.

Methods and Findings

Using retrospective hospitalization data, we simulated prospective surveillance for LRI-elevations. Between 1999–2006, a total of 290762 LRIs were included by date of hospitalization and patients place of residence (>80% coverage, 16 million population). Two large outbreaks of Legionnaires disease in the Netherlands were used as positive controls to test whether these outbreaks could have been detected as local LRI elevations. We used a space-time permutation scan statistic to detect LRI clusters. We evaluated how many LRI-clusters were detected in 1999–2006 and assessed likely causes for the cluster-signals by looking for significantly higher proportions of specific hospital discharge diagnoses (e.g. Legionnaires disease) and overlap with regional influenza elevations. We also evaluated whether the number of space-time signals can be reduced by restricting the scan statistic in space or time. In 1999–2006 the scan-statistic detected 35 local LRI clusters, representing on average 5 clusters per year. The known Legionnaires'' disease outbreaks in 1999 and 2006 were detected as LRI-clusters, since cluster-signals were generated with an increased proportion of Legionnaires disease patients (p:<0.0001). 21 other clusters coincided with local influenza and/or respiratory syncytial virus activity, and 1 cluster appeared to be a data artifact. For 11 clusters no likely cause was defined, some possibly representing as yet undetected LRI-outbreaks. With restrictions on time and spatial windows the scan statistic still detected the Legionnaires'' disease outbreaks, without loss of timeliness and with less signals generated in time (up to 42% decline).

Conclusions

To our knowledge this is the first study that systematically evaluates the performance of space-time syndromic surveillance with nationwide high coverage data over a longer period. The results show that syndromic surveillance can detect local LRI-outbreaks in a timely manner, independent of laboratory-based outbreak detection. Furthermore, since comparatively few new clusters per year were observed that would prompt investigation, syndromic hospital-surveillance could be a valuable tool for detection of local LRI-outbreaks.     

Malaria Incidence in Children in South-West Burkina Faso: Comparison of Active and Passive Case Detection Methods

Background

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and seasonal pattern of malaria in children in South-West Burkina Faso, and to compare, in a randomized trial, characteristics of cases detected by active and passive surveillance. This study also enabled the planning of a malaria vaccine trial.

Methods

Households with young children, located within 5 kilometers of a health facility, were randomized to one of two malaria surveillance methods. In the first group, children were monitored actively. Each child was visited twice weekly; tympanic temperature was measured, and if the child had a fever or history of fever, a malaria rapid diagnostic test was performed and a blood smear collected. In the second group, children were monitored passively. The child’s parent or caregiver was asked to bring the child to the nearest clinic if he was unwell. Follow up lasted 13 months from September 2009.

Results

Incidence of malaria (Fever with parasitaemia ≥5,000/µL) was 1.18 episodes/child/year in the active cohort and 0.89 in the passive cohort (rate ratio 1.32, 95% CI 1.13–1.54). Malaria cases in the passive cohort were more likely to have high grade fever; but parasite densities were similar in the two groups. Incidence was highly seasonal; when a specific case definition was used, about 60% of cases occurred within the 4 months June-September.

Conclusion

Passive case detection required at least a 30%–40% increase in the sample size for vaccine trials, compared to active detection, to achieve the same power. However we did not find any evidence that parasite densities were higher with passive than with active detection. The incidence of malaria is highly seasonal and meets the WHO criteria for Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC). At least half of the malaria cases in these children could potentially be prevented if SMC was effectively deployed.     

Clearance of asymptomatic P. falciparum Infections Interacts with the number of clones to predict the risk of subsequent malaria in Kenyan children

Background

Protective immunity to malaria is acquired after repeated infections in endemic areas. Asymptomatic multiclonal P. falciparum infections are common and may predict host protection. Here, we have investigated the effect of clearing asymptomatic infections on the risk of clinical malaria.

Methods

Malaria episodes were continuously monitored in 405 children (1–6 years) in an area of moderate transmission, coastal Kenya. Blood samples collected on four occasions were assessed by genotyping the polymorphic P. falciparum merozoite surface protein 2 using fluorescent PCR and capillary electrophoresis. Following the second survey, asymptomatic infections were cleared with a full course of dihydroartemisinin.

Results

Children who were parasite negative by PCR had a lower risk of subsequent malaria regardless of whether treatment had been given. Children with ≥2 clones had a reduced risk of febrile malaria compared with 1 clone after clearance of asymptomatic infections, but not if asymptomatic infections were not cleared. Multiclonal infection was associated with an increased risk of re-infection after drug treatment. However, among the children who were re-infected, multiclonal infections were associated with a shift from clinical malaria to asymptomatic parasitaemia.

Conclusion

The number of clones was associated with exposure as well as blood stage immunity. These effects were distinguished by clearing asymptomatic infection with anti-malarials. Exposure to multiple P. falciparum infections is associated with protective immunity, but there appears to be an additional effect in untreated multiclonal infections that offsets this protective effect.     

Familial Skewed X Chromosome Inactivation in Adrenoleukodystrophy Manifesting Heterozygotes from a Chinese Pedigree

Background

X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) is an inherited neurodegenerative disorder caused by mutations in the ABCD1 gene. Approximately 20% of X-ALD female carriers may develop neurological symptoms. Skewed X chromosome inactivation (XCI) has been proposed to influence the manifestation of symptoms in X-ALD carriers, but data remain conflicting so far. We identified a three generation kindred, with five heterozygous females, including two manifesting carriers. XCI pattern and the ABCD1 allele expression were assessed in order to determine if symptoms in X-ALD carriers could be related to skewed XCI and whether skewing within this family is more consistent with genetically influenced or completely random XCI.

Results

We found a high frequency of skewing in this family. Four of five females had skewed XCI, including two manifesting carriers favoring the mutant allele, one asymptomatic carrier favoring the normal allele, and one female who was not an X-ALD carrier. Known causes of skewing, such as chromosomal abnormalities, selection against deleterious alleles, XIST promoter mutations, were not consistent with our results.

Conclusions

Our data support that skewed XCI in favor of the mutant ABCD1 allele would be associated with the manifestation of heterozygous symptoms. Furthermore, XCI skewing in this family is genetically influenced. However, the underlying mechanism remains to be substantiated by further experiments.